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For those who don't have paywall access
Peter Kellner's piece from the Sunday Times is now on the YouGov website
As things stand, Cameron could be the first Tory leader for more than half a century to have good reason to say on election night: “Thank you, Scotland”.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/16/scottish-voters-dent-milibands-hopes/0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
I see that Ed was at JLR, talking about how amazing they are, a model for the country, and in the say breath still banging the tax avoidance / tax evasion drum. I hope he checked that the Tata group has clean hands when it comes to their tax affairs....
"The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) on Friday pulled up the income tax department (ITD) for allowing irregular tax exemption to two Tata Group trusts, involving tax implication of a little over Rs 1,000 crore."
http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/tata-trusts-given-irregular-tax-exemptions-cag-113121300673_1.html
The Lord's. Second week of Jan.TheScreamingEagles said:
No there . The last Tory lead with ICM was back in July, of 1%surbiton said:Good lead for the Tories. Let's see the next few. Wasn't there an ICM a month or so back which gave the Tories 3/4% lead ?
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***** Betting Post *****
On the basis of this ICM poll and signs of UKIP's diminishing support elsewhere, my early bet of the week is to back the Purple Party to win FEWER than 6 GE seats at odds of 1.89 (1.85 net of commission) with Betfair. When I looked just now there was approx £50 available at this price.
As ever, DYOR.0 -
The one eating the baby....SouthamObserver said:
But which one is he?MarqueeMark said:
Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....SouthamObserver said:
Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up
Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband
'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html0 -
The same as tonights 'UKIP: The first 100 days' .GIN1138 said:
No, no, it's not an outlier. It's part of an EU funded conspiracy to to do UKIP down...logical_song said:
It must be an outlier because it doesn't agree with MikeK. The election will probably be an outlier too.GIN1138 said:
Do you actually think ICM is persecuting UKIP? Are you on drugs?MikeK said:All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Gentlemen's outfitters are doing a roaring trade in tinfoil lined tweed caps and Faraday cage corduroy jackets this week.0 -
I mentioned the return of the shy tories this morning. Easier to be shy by phone. Last time we saw them was last time they were in govt and lots of the same reasons are back.chestnut said:The Tories are between 34-36 with ICM, Ipsos and Ashcroft - phone polls.
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@dugarbandier
Forget the ICM poll, PJ and Duncan. I think Ant was PJ and Dec was Duncan. PJ went blind in a paint balling incident on Byker Grove. My era of children's television!0 -
No, not Wee Jimmy Krankie too! There isn't enough mind-bleach in the world....Casino_Royale said:
I'm sure Nicola Sturgeon would be involved too.GIN1138 said:
I'm having disturbing images of Ed, Alex and Nick having a threesome...Casino_Royale said:I've no doubt that'd be the preferred LD option rather than a dirty Lab-LD-SNP three-way when Labour had lost decisively on both seats and votes.
Think I'd better have a lie down!
Bye.
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Right, but in a specific direction. Most models expected swingback and most commentators anticipated UKIP getting squeezed. Not saying that either or both will happen, but there's no sense in just betting on the polls as they are today.isam said:
They move every day don't they?Tissue_Price said:
Were you not anticipating the polls moving?isam said:If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!
Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...0 -
They'll get murdered on twitter as soon as the Labour trolls see their betrayal.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up
Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband
'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html
He's gone to A&E in shock - we won't see him till after May 10th - you know how bad the waiting times are under the baby -eaters.TheWatcher said:Anyone seen Big John Owls?
He's should have Baxtered the numbers by now. Always does when other polls are published.0 -
MikeK said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31449362
I really don't know why the Israelis bother.
I hope stories like that will one day help bring peace to the Middle East.
If enough people can go from fear to praise like that, maybe the hatred can end.
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The one who apperas to have an ever receding hairline - for 15 years !SouthamObserver said:
But which one is he?MarqueeMark said:
Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....SouthamObserver said:
Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up
Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband
'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html0 -
And we know their enemies are not.logical_song said:
Maybe because their doctors are civilised.MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31449362
I really don't know why the Israelis bother.
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Nah - that would be too fishy.Casino_Royale said:
I'm sure Nicola Sturgeon would be involved too.GIN1138 said:
I'm having disturbing images of Ed, Alex and Nick having a threesome...Casino_Royale said:I've no doubt that'd be the preferred LD option rather than a dirty Lab-LD-SNP three-way when Labour had lost decisively on both seats and votes.
Think I'd better have a lie down!
Bye.
I'm on all week:)0 -
I dont really know what you are on about if I am honestTissue_Price said:
Right, but in a specific direction. Most models expected swingback and most commentators anticipated UKIP getting squeezed. Not saying that either or both will happen, but there's no sense in just betting on the polls as they are today.isam said:
They move every day don't they?Tissue_Price said:
Were you not anticipating the polls moving?isam said:If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!
Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...
All my bets have moved my way since I put them on, so I am not that frantic over this poll0 -
Could be some truth in that. They're better at ditching no hopers. If Miliband had led the tories he'd prbly have been dumped by now.Bond_James_Bond said:
The Tories' characterisation of Labour's leader has always been 100% accurate. As a party, they are exceptionally shrewd judges of political character.MaxPB said:
Lucy Powell's strategy of more Ed, more of the time seems to be working as intended.TheWatcher said:Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.
No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.
.0 -
once the campaign propre starts UKIP will be getting major media exposure (as a major party- that's still true isn't it?)isam said:
I dont really know what you are on about if I am honestTissue_Price said:
Right, but in a specific direction. Most models expected swingback and most commentators anticipated UKIP getting squeezed. Not saying that either or both will happen, but there's no sense in just betting on the polls as they are today.isam said:
They move every day don't they?Tissue_Price said:
Were you not anticipating the polls moving?isam said:If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!
Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...
All my bets have moved my way since I put them on, so I am not that frantic over this poll
I'd guess their trend is still upward.0 -
Why do you have Mark Rylance as your avatar Mike?MikeK said:
And we know their enemies are not.logical_song said:
Maybe because their doctors are civilised.MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31449362
I really don't know why the Israelis bother.0 -
Unclear how much UKIP would benefit from that, but it's clear what the (other) major parties have done in previous elections with their broadcasts, billboards, etc.dugarbandier said:
once the campaign propre starts UKIP will be getting major media exposure (as a major party- that's still true isn't it?)isam said:
I dont really know what you are on about if I am honestTissue_Price said:
Right, but in a specific direction. Most models expected swingback and most commentators anticipated UKIP getting squeezed. Not saying that either or both will happen, but there's no sense in just betting on the polls as they are today.isam said:
They move every day don't they?Tissue_Price said:
Were you not anticipating the polls moving?isam said:If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!
Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...
All my bets have moved my way since I put them on, so I am not that frantic over this poll
I'd guess their trend is still upward.0 -
Surely he doesn't need to update his CV ..... he simply signs on again for more money. IIRC he's previously told us that this option with the NHS is open to him.MarqueeMark said:
He's updating his CV. May have to go back to work to fund his political betting losses...TheWatcher said:Anyone seen Big John Owls?
He's should have Baxtered the numbers by now. Always does when other polls are published.0 -
Most 'models' didn't anticipate UKIP being in this position at this point in the first place!Tissue_Price said:
Right, but in a specific direction. Most models expected swingback and most commentators anticipated UKIP getting squeezed. Not saying that either or both will happen, but there's no sense in just betting on the polls as they are today.isam said:
They move every day don't they?Tissue_Price said:
Were you not anticipating the polls moving?isam said:If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!
Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...0 -
It would be good for C4 if they did get into trouble over it. The pre-broadcast leaks are worrying for folk who believe in equal treatment of parties. Your stuff on ICM lets you down.MikeK said:All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Whilst amusing, this does look like a rogue, a rapscallion, a scallywag of the first water of a poll.
Mr. Urquhart, Harman's a clown.0 -
It would seem that Miliband is doing a better job of frightening anti Labour voters into the Tories arms than attracting new supporters into the Labour fold.0
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But private pays better!peter_from_putney said:
Surely he doesn't need to update his CV ..... he simply signs on again for more money. IIRC he's previously told us that this option with the NHS is open to him.MarqueeMark said:
He's updating his CV. May have to go back to work to fund his political betting losses...TheWatcher said:Anyone seen Big John Owls?
He's should have Baxtered the numbers by now. Always does when other polls are published.
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The one on the right.....SouthamObserver said:
But which one is he?MarqueeMark said:
Lord be praised! Finally, FINALLY, a way to tell them apart....SouthamObserver said:
Ant is so staunchly Labour he voted Tory at the last election.TheScreamingEagles said:I feel a PJ & Duncan themed nighthawks coming up
Ant and Dec criticise Labour and Ed Miliband
'Staunchly Labour' TV presenters say the party has lost its way and claim they cannot see Mr Miliband leading the country
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11415678/Ant-and-Dec-criticise-Labour-and-Ed-Miliband.html
I'll get me coat.
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I go away for a couple of hours and miss all the excitement.
Whether either the Conservatives being ahead of Labour or the Lib Dems being ahead of UKIP is actually correct is open to doubt. Though this is not a good poll for the Lib Dems at all. 10% is a really low rating for them with ICM.0 -
Very true.Purseybear said:
Could be some truth in that. They're better at ditching no hopers. If Miliband had led the tories he'd prbly have been dumped by now.Bond_James_Bond said:
The Tories' characterisation of Labour's leader has always been 100% accurate. As a party, they are exceptionally shrewd judges of political character.MaxPB said:
Lucy Powell's strategy of more Ed, more of the time seems to be working as intended.TheWatcher said:Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.
No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.
.
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Perhaps it's time to start seeking out the best betting value in those 40th - 60th "most vulnerable" seats, which perhaps the Tories aren't about to lose after all.
Where's antifrank when you need him?0 -
Coalition on 46 (+5)antifrank said:I go away for a couple of hours and miss all the excitement.
Whether either the Conservatives being ahead of Labour or the Lib Dems being ahead of UKIP is actually correct is open to doubt. Though this is not a good poll for the Lib Dems at all. 10% is a really low rating for them with ICM.
LDs rejoice - 5 more years ...0 -
By jove, Mike's right
@MSmithsonPB: This seems designed to secure for Nick Clegg Tory tactical voters in Sheffield Hallam http://t.co/AbKNbEx95H0 -
Not much of an anagram.TheScreamingEagles said:By jove, Mike's right
@MSmithsonPB: This seems designed to secure for Nick Clegg Tory tactical voters in Sheffield Hallam http://t.co/AbKNbEx95H0 -
No, it's pretty much the norm.antifrank said:Though this is not a good poll for the Lib Dems at all. 10% is a really low rating for them with ICM.
Last 6 LD ICMs: 12, 10, 11, 11, 14, 11.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
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Electoral CalculusMarqueeMark said:
He's updating his CV. May have to go back to work to fund his political betting losses...TheWatcher said:Anyone seen Big John Owls?
He's should have Baxtered the numbers by now. Always does when other polls are published.
Con 311
Lab 294
Lib 17
Oth 19
EICINPM
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As ever, Douglas Murray is spot on over appeasing nutcases through politically correct bullshit and indulging the backward over-sensitivity of maniacs (he uses nicer words):
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2015/02/how-many-more-terror-attacks-until-we-have-a-serious-discussion-about-offending-religions/0 -
Always funny to see right-on lefty women using terminology like 'slags'.TheScreamingEagles said:By jove, Mike's right
@MSmithsonPB: This seems designed to secure for Nick Clegg Tory tactical voters in Sheffield Hallam http://t.co/AbKNbEx95H0 -
Clearly printed before this afternoon's poll - no longer do the TORYS LAGTheScreamingEagles said:By jove, Mike's right
@MSmithsonPB: This seems designed to secure for Nick Clegg Tory tactical voters in Sheffield Hallam http://t.co/AbKNbEx95H
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Don't other parties get unfriendly fictional treatment. 'The Thick of It', 'A very British Coup', 'The Deal', 'The Alan Clark Diaries'. I'm sure there are more.TCPoliticalBetting said:
It would be good for C4 if they did get into trouble over it. The pre-broadcast leaks are worrying for folk who believe in equal treatment of parties. Your stuff on ICM lets you down.MikeK said:All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
or even non-fiction like 'Yesterday's Men'0 -
By price, you're looking at seats like:peter_from_putney said:Perhaps it's time to start seeking out the best betting value in those 40th - 60th "most vulnerable" seats, which perhaps the Tories aren't about to lose after all.
Where's antifrank when you need him?
Croydon Central
Ipswich
Chester, City of
Castle Point
Pudsey
Rochester and Strood
Dudley South
Kingswood
Wirral West
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Gloucester
Loughborough
Worcester
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You're right of course, but I reserve the right to gloat on the most flimsy and specious of grounds. 'Tis practically mandatory behaviour from all sides on PB, after all - although you usually remain above the fray, cashing in...Peter_the_Punter said:
But there does seem to be something of a pattern, Anorak, whereby Labour register a string of small leads which are interrupted occasionally by a thumping great Tory lead.Anorak said:
You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.compouter2 said:Tory surge now on:
Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4
It's usually Lord Ashcroft, but this time ICM. Not sure what to make of it.0 -
I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.0
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10% for the LDs with ICM is very bad. Joint lowest they have been for many years. Also since ICMs system bumps up LDs rating due to the much higher vote it got in 2010, a 10% with ICM is equivalent to a 7% or less with others.antifrank said:I go away for a couple of hours and miss all the excitement.
Whether either the Conservatives being ahead of Labour or the Lib Dems being ahead of UKIP is actually correct is open to doubt. Though this is not a good poll for the Lib Dems at all. 10% is a really low rating for them with ICM.
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After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?0 -
ant and Dec have spoken
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2955530/Staunchly-Labour-TV-stars-Ant-Dec-say-Ed-Miliband-not-Prime-Minister.html
Ed not up to the task.
Is JackW Ant or Dec - I think we should be told :-)0 -
And do you know whether "a young farmer from Deraa" was their enemy? Or are you saying he's a Syrian, so should not be helped medically?MikeK said:
And we know their enemies are not.logical_song said:
Maybe because their doctors are civilised.MikeK said:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-31449362
I really don't know why the Israelis bother.0 -
its bollocks though really isn't it? he doesn't have anything to say beyond a sterotypical "enoch was right" kind of thingMorris_Dancer said:As ever, Douglas Murray is spot on over appeasing nutcases through politically correct bullshit and indulging the backward over-sensitivity of maniacs (he uses nicer words):
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2015/02/how-many-more-terror-attacks-until-we-have-a-serious-discussion-about-offending-religions/0 -
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
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I'm not a regular poster and being an OAP not a keen gambler either... but I have lived through the Wilson/Callaghan era as an adult so I can confidently say a Labour Government would be rather like Ed's leadership - a shambles.Roger said:I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.
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Mr. Roger, I care. Whilst not enamoured with Cameron, Miliband could be a disaster in an impressive number of ways.
1) Trident surrendering to the SNP
2) Constitutional crisis
3) Shafting the English by either having no devolution or, worse, carving the country up into shitty party political fiefdoms
4) Economic woe
5) Being even worse than the Coalition on regulating the press when we need stronger freedom of speech/the press than ever
And, on a less serious but indefensible and repugnant nevertheless:
6) Having a candidate for mayor (Sadiq Khan) who wants anti-white quotas0 -
Mr. Fish, nice to see you on
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Miliband kicks kittens too.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, I care. Whilst not enamoured with Cameron, Miliband could be a disaster in an impressive number of ways.
1) Trident surrendering to the SNP
2) Constitutional crisis
3) Shafting the English by either having no devolution or, worse, carving the country up into shitty party political fiefdoms
4) Economic woe
5) Being even worse than the Coalition on regulating the press when we need stronger freedom of speech/the press than ever
And, on a less serious but indefensible and repugnant nevertheless:
6) Having a candidate for mayor (Sadiq Khan) who wants anti-white quotas0 -
Labour will destroy a lot of value. That is a shame for those who are less well-placed to withstand it.Roger said:I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.
Call it compassionate Conservativism.0 -
No, that was Ed's Dad, the man who hated Britain, etcOblitusSumMe said:
Miliband kicks kittens too.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Roger, I care. Whilst not enamoured with Cameron, Miliband could be a disaster in an impressive number of ways.
1) Trident surrendering to the SNP
2) Constitutional crisis
3) Shafting the English by either having no devolution or, worse, carving the country up into shitty party political fiefdoms
4) Economic woe
5) Being even worse than the Coalition on regulating the press when we need stronger freedom of speech/the press than ever
And, on a less serious but indefensible and repugnant nevertheless:
6) Having a candidate for mayor (Sadiq Khan) who wants anti-white quotas
http://www.anorak.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/ed-miliband.jpg0 -
OK, thanks.Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Seems a bit uneven to me. If Scotland bat first (conditions being equal, I don't know) then they ought to post at least 150, probably ~200. That would be a challenge for NZ to reach without losing two wickets, I mean, that's at least 25 overs of cricket. But if NZ are in first, they've got to be targetting 300+ and that means a good Scotland score.
I must admit I do not know the form book on Scotland as well as I did Ireland.0 -
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?0 -
Or put another way Libdems hit rock bottom. The Libdems have not polled lower than 10% in any ICM poll since 2010 (according to UKPR)anotherDave said:
No, it's pretty much the norm.antifrank said:Though this is not a good poll for the Lib Dems at all. 10% is a really low rating for them with ICM.
Last 6 LD ICMs: 12, 10, 11, 11, 14, 11.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm0 -
It won't, except in the negative. I wouldn't expect a renewed Cameron government to change anything at all. All their political capital will be spent on making further spending cuts and trying to cobble together some sort of very basic package on the EU renegotiation they can spin as a success.Roger said:I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.
I would expect an Ed Miliband led government to take decisions that, in aggregate, sum up to damage the country's economy, and act against Britain's interests in matters of foreign affairs and defence to an even greater extent than the Conservatives.
They would also probably do a 'go-slow' on any further roll-out of free schools, but will lack the money to do anything substantive - other than cosmetic change - about welfare and health reforms.
Both governments will be identical on socio-cultural issues, values issues and immigration.0 -
You can bet on the toss!nigel4england said:
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Amazing.
Only use would be as some sort of hedge, but I've never mastered that sort of arbitrage that others here do so well.0 -
I think the similarities between the Conservative and Labour front-benches, socially and attitudinally, are far greater than the differences.Roger said:I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.
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Mr. Me, I find that hard to believe. If he can't handle a dead pig then a live cat will be far beyond his powers.0
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Blimey you chucked the towel in early.Roger said:I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.
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As swingback is now a well known and proven theory, with peer reviewed papers printed in appropriate journals ( http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll ), we extrapolate the exponential nature of swing back to show that by May 2015 the vote shares will be: Con 48 (+ 12) Lab 28 (-4) LD 9 (-1) All others 15 (-8).
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I've always found betting on the first ball greatGrandiose said:
You can bet on the toss!nigel4england said:
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Amazing.0 -
It is probably a bit uneven, so part of the bet does relate to a favourable toss! The difference between 7.5 & 8.5 is very significant in these games - faced with an easy chase 1 or 2 wickets down is normal.Grandiose said:
OK, thanks.Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Seems a bit uneven to me. If Scotland bat first (conditions being equal, I don't know) then they ought to post at least 150, probably ~200. That would be a challenge for NZ to reach without losing two wickets, I mean, that's at least 25 overs of cricket. But if NZ are in first, they've got to be targetting 300+ and that means a good Scotland score.
I must admit I do not know the form book on Scotland as well as I did Ireland.
I wouldn't be so sure about Scotland getting 200 against the NZ attack in NZ conditions, though.0 -
Bookies are presumably sitting on all the data required for the spot betting options. Does Brendan McCullum hit more sixes on ball 1 or ball 5? Etc. etc.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've always found betting on the first ball greatGrandiose said:
You can bet on the toss!nigel4england said:
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Amazing.0 -
The usual ploy if the minnows bat first and start to collapse is to try to get on the opposition openers for top bat! Most bookies are wise to it, though, so don't take any old price...TheScreamingEagles said:
I've always found betting on the first ball greatGrandiose said:
You can bet on the toss!nigel4england said:
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Amazing.0 -
Could have been worse, they could have said "sluts"felix said:
Always funny to see right-on lefty women using terminology like 'slags'.TheScreamingEagles said:By jove, Mike's right
@MSmithsonPB: This seems designed to secure for Nick Clegg Tory tactical voters in Sheffield Hallam http://t.co/AbKNbEx95H 0 -
They wouldn't be identical, that's just plain silly. It's true however that they wouldn't be enormously far apart in those sorts of values issues, for the very good reasons that either the vast bulk of the population wouldn't vote for them if they were (socio-cultural issues), or because it isn't actually feasible to change course a lot (immigration).Casino_Royale said:Both governments will be identical on socio-cultural issues, values issues and immigration.
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One of the reasons I'm not betting that much on the matches in this world cup is because of the time differences.Tissue_Price said:
The usual ploy if the minnows bat first and start to collapse is to try to get on the opposition openers for top bat! Most bookies are wise to it, though, so don't take any old price...TheScreamingEagles said:
I've always found betting on the first ball greatGrandiose said:
You can bet on the toss!nigel4england said:
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Amazing.
Past experience has seen me fall asleep around 2am and I fail to trade out.0 -
ICM poll - blimey, now that is what I'd call a 'corker' - fun, but probably an outlier.0
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Sky Sports once did a half an hour documentary on that, it was astonishing thatGrandiose said:
Bookies are presumably sitting on all the data required for the spot betting options. Does Brendan McCullum hit more sixes on ball 1 or ball 5? Etc. etc.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've always found betting on the first ball greatGrandiose said:
You can bet on the toss!nigel4england said:
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Amazing.
1) How much info the bookies had on that sort of thing
2) How closely/live time info legit bookies shared with each other, to help spot anything dodgy
3) How this was all fed to the Anti-Corruption Unit at the ICC0 -
Outlier or not, this ICM is awful for labour.
LabMaj is probably a lay @ 18/10 -
The only reason to vote Conservative then, would be because they'll be a bit more sensible on the economy than Labour are.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't be identical, that's just plain silly. It's true however that they wouldn't be enormously far apart in those sorts of values issues, for the very good reasons that either the vast bulk of the population wouldn't vote for them if they were (socio-cultural issues), or because it isn't actually feasible to change course a lot (immigration).Casino_Royale said:Both governments will be identical on socio-cultural issues, values issues and immigration.
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Just for a bit of fun, tried calculating ELBOW for last week's YouGov polls only and non-YouGov polls only.
The official ELBOW gives Lab a 1.5% lead over the Tories, gives a UKIP score of 14.2%, and gives LDs a 1.3% lead over the Greens
YouGov-only also gives a Lab lead of 1.5%, a UKIP score of 14.3%, but a Green lead of 0.3% over the LDs
Non-YouGov-only also gives a Lab lead 1.5%, and UKIP a score of 14.2%, but a LD lead of 2.9% over the Greens0 -
Not sure about that. It's effectively a bet that, from here, only once or twice in a century could you expect Labour to make up enough ground to get a majority. It's a bit bold to lay that, IMO - who knows what unknown unknowns might hit in the next couple of months?Pong said:Outlier or not, this ICM is awful for labour.
LabMaj is probably a lay @ 18/10 -
It's not a bad reason, though, is it!Sean_F said:
The only reason to vote Conservative then, would be because they'll be a bit more sensible on the economy than Labour are.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't be identical, that's just plain silly. It's true however that they wouldn't be enormously far apart in those sorts of values issues, for the very good reasons that either the vast bulk of the population wouldn't vote for them if they were (socio-cultural issues), or because it isn't actually feasible to change course a lot (immigration).Casino_Royale said:Both governments will be identical on socio-cultural issues, values issues and immigration.
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We're in an odd period of politics. One consequence of Labour and the Conservatives both having relatively low vote shares is that both are fishing in separate pools, but messages from each party aimed at their own target pool may have the consequence of persuading voters in the other party's target pool to return to the mothership. So apparently strong attacks risk being counterproductive.
The economically bone-dry kippers become markedly more sympathetic to the Conservative party when Labour launch attacks based on leftwing economics, even when the Conservatives seem to be struggling to respond. We have fewer leftwing posters on pb, but I expect that Conservative austerity-based attacks have a similar effect on those flirting with the Greens.0 -
On a personal level it will make very little difference to me, though I guess I'll do slightly better financially under the Tories as I'll pay less tax. However, I managed to get to where I am because from birth there was a state that ensured I got opportunities that my grandparents and all those who went before them could not have dreamed of. I don't think the Tories are intrinsically wicked, I just think that when it comes down to fundamentals they are wrong, and that over the longer term the kind of society they seem to want - low tax, less state support, fewer employment rights etc - is going to lead to more inequality, less cohesion, more social breakdown and fewer opportunities for most people.Roger said:I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.
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ha!philiph said:As swingback is now a well known and proven theory, with peer reviewed papers printed in appropriate journals ( http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll ), we extrapolate the exponential nature of swing back to show that by May 2015 the vote shares will be: Con 48 (+ 12) Lab 28 (-4) LD 9 (-1) All others 15 (-8).
I'll happily bet against that "proven" theory...
Anyone offer me evens that the tories won't get 48%?0 -
Good tip on Ireland last night. Thanks.nigel4england said:
I really hope Scotland don't bat first, I bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, I could close out now at 376 but definitely not going to!Tissue_Price said:
Which handicap applies depends on who bats first. So if NZ bat first, Scotland would have to get within 100 to win the hcap, and if Scotland bat first then they'd need to take 2 wickets to win the hcap.Grandiose said:After my success tipping Ireland, NZ v Scotland is a different matter. Almost impossible to see Scotland winning. 1/50 is not worth it for NZ but 1/5 for more sixes (described as "most sixes") than Scotland might just be worth it.
Can anyone explain the "match handicap" option on bet365 (probably others, but since I'm not actually betting no point me spending time) - Scotland +8.5 wickets / +100.5 runs and NZ the opposite?
Even though i only put a tenner on every little helps
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And how many of those had their first showing three months before an election and predicted race riots if a specific party became the government?logical_song said:
Don't other parties get unfriendly fictional treatment. 'The Thick of It', 'A very British Coup', 'The Deal', 'The Alan Clark Diaries'. I'm sure there are more.TCPoliticalBetting said:
It would be good for C4 if they did get into trouble over it. The pre-broadcast leaks are worrying for folk who believe in equal treatment of parties. Your stuff on ICM lets you down.MikeK said:All the pollsters are in flux, and the ICM poll is definitely and outlier or perhaps a spoof as the ICM bosses fear of UKIP is now showing up in the polls as well as in words.
In July 2014 ICM also had UKIP on 9% with a fall of 7 points. They are pathetic.
Mind you the C4 attack on UKIP tonight - which is sponsored by the EU - may see that channel in trouble.
or even non-fiction like 'Yesterday's Men'
Now that we have fixed term elections the rules applying to pre election coverage should apply for the whole of the six months prior to the election to the extent that no such pieces of clearly prejudiced output as this should be allowed although clearly Parliamentary business has to be broadcast as normal.
Of course it could well rebound on them because it could well remind people of the risks of allowing uncontrolled immigration and with whats been going on in Paris and Copenhagen the idea of such rioting is probably not necessarily the dog whistle it was originally intended to be.0 -
Welcome back mad ....... iirc you were once an ever-present on PB.com.madasafish said:
I'm not a regular poster and being an OAP not a keen gambler either... but I have lived through the Wilson/Callaghan era as an adult so I can confidently say a Labour Government would be rather like Ed's leadership - a shambles.Roger said:I wonder how many on here really care who wins the next election (gamblers excluded)? Probably more Tories than Labourites but apart from a few zealots like Nabavi and Flightpath I think the rest of us realize it won't make a scrap of difference to anything or anyone.
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NB when the politicians stop talking about immigration and Europe, the public decide that immigration and Europe are less vital subjects of debate. There's a lesson there.0
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A hell of a lot more sensible on the economy, which will make a huge difference to most people's lives, a lot more sensible on education, a lot more sensible on welfare, a lot more sensible on government procurement and a lot better at generally running things.Sean_F said:
The only reason to vote Conservative then, would be because they'll be a bit more sensible on the economy than Labour are.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't be identical, that's just plain silly. It's true however that they wouldn't be enormously far apart in those sorts of values issues, for the very good reasons that either the vast bulk of the population wouldn't vote for them if they were (socio-cultural issues), or because it isn't actually feasible to change course a lot (immigration).Casino_Royale said:Both governments will be identical on socio-cultural issues, values issues and immigration.
What more do you want? You can either continue with things getting better, or go back into reverse, probably quite a sharp reverse given Labour's current state.0 -
We have a big clue that Lord Ashcroft's poll is not going to show the same picture as ICM:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 37s38 seconds ago
Guardian/ICM poll CON 36% LAB 32% UKIP 9% LDEM 10% GRNS 7% appears to be an outlier.0 -
Thanks TP.Tissue_Price said:
By price, you're looking at seats like:peter_from_putney said:Perhaps it's time to start seeking out the best betting value in those 40th - 60th "most vulnerable" seats, which perhaps the Tories aren't about to lose after all.
Where's antifrank when you need him?
Croydon Central
Ipswich
Chester, City of
Castle Point
Pudsey
Rochester and Strood
Dudley South
Kingswood
Wirral West
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Gloucester
Loughborough
Worcester0 -
A very old one. When the death penalty was in the news day in and day out in the 1950's the number of murders fell to its lowest rate of the 20th Century.antifrank said:NB when the politicians stop talking about immigration and Europe, the public decide that immigration and Europe are less vital subjects of debate. There's a lesson there.
If somethings in the news it attracts attention and people respond accordingly. When it isn't they forget about it. Go figure
The thing is net immigration and EU integration are not going to go away anytime soon so however much politicians try and sweep it under the carpet it will always come back to bite them. Unless of course you are suggesting that politicians should wilfully and systematically deceive the public about such issues?
Isn't that how we got to this juncture in the first place?0 -
Maybe the noble Lord has an 8-point lead? More likely, he has Labour ahead, in line with most of the other firms...antifrank said:We have a big clue that Lord Ashcroft's poll is not going to show the same picture as ICM:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 37s38 seconds ago
Guardian/ICM poll CON 36% LAB 32% UKIP 9% LDEM 10% GRNS 7% appears to be an outlier.0 -
I predict a Lab lead with the no longer gold standard, Good Lord.antifrank said:We have a big clue that Lord Ashcroft's poll is not going to show the same picture as ICM:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 37s38 seconds ago
Guardian/ICM poll CON 36% LAB 32% UKIP 9% LDEM 10% GRNS 7% appears to be an outlier.0 -
That would be the first Labour lead with Ashcroft in 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with the no longer gold standard, Good Lord.antifrank said:We have a big clue that Lord Ashcroft's poll is not going to show the same picture as ICM:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 37s38 seconds ago
Guardian/ICM poll CON 36% LAB 32% UKIP 9% LDEM 10% GRNS 7% appears to be an outlier.0 -
You're sooo wrong, as even a cursory look at any comment thread on the Daily Telegraph would tell you.antifrank said:NB when the politicians stop talking about immigration and Europe, the public decide that immigration and Europe are less vital subjects of debate. There's a lesson there.
Why just the other day there were more comments on immigration, Europe and (for some reason) the untrustworthiness of Cameron than anything else - and that was an article about pancake day! Get with the zeitgeist!!0 -
That would be the real outlier thenOblitusSumMe said:
That would be the first Labour lead with Ashcroft in 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a Lab lead with the no longer gold standard, Good Lord.antifrank said:We have a big clue that Lord Ashcroft's poll is not going to show the same picture as ICM:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 37s38 seconds ago
Guardian/ICM poll CON 36% LAB 32% UKIP 9% LDEM 10% GRNS 7% appears to be an outlier.0 -
A frowning Basil was enjoying his hour or so of non-carrying.antifrank said:We have a big clue that Lord Ashcroft's poll is not going to show the same picture as ICM:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 37s38 seconds ago
Guardian/ICM poll CON 36% LAB 32% UKIP 9% LDEM 10% GRNS 7% appears to be an outlier.0 -
If its an outlier Lab Maj at 18/1 is a much better bet than Tory maj at much skimpier price IMO.Pong said:Outlier or not, this ICM is awful for labour.
LabMaj is probably a lay @ 18/1
If its not an outlier then you are correct Lay at 18/10 -
What time will Lord Ashcroft reveal his poll for general viewing?0
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4pmMorris_Dancer said:What time will Lord Ashcroft reveal his poll for general viewing?
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Of course the noble lord is a bit of a tease, and he didn't actually say which of those figures looked a bit outlier-ish.antifrank said:We have a big clue that Lord Ashcroft's poll is not going to show the same picture as ICM:
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 37s38 seconds ago
Guardian/ICM poll CON 36% LAB 32% UKIP 9% LDEM 10% GRNS 7% appears to be an outlier.0 -
Cheers, Mr. Eagles.0
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They may not be going away, but they may not be particularly important either. They seem to be becoming less important to the public:Hengists_Gift said:
A very old one. When the death penalty was in the news day in and day out in the 1950's the number of murders fell to its lowest rate of the 20th Century.antifrank said:NB when the politicians stop talking about immigration and Europe, the public decide that immigration and Europe are less vital subjects of debate. There's a lesson there.
If somethings in the news it attracts attention and people respond accordingly. When it isn't they forget about it. Go figure
The thing is net immigration and EU integration are not going to go away anytime soon so however much politicians try and sweep it under the carpet it will always come back to bite them. Unless of course you are suggesting that politicians should wilfully and systematically deceive the public about such issues?
Isn't that how we got to this juncture in the first place?
http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1424093007494/ICM_single_issue_poll_16Feb.svg0
