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edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s first poll showing LAB 2% ahead

Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU

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  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    First again!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Guardian/ICM poll coming up soon ...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    One of the UK Independence party’s most generous donors has dropped his threat never to fund the party again, and plans to spend £100,000 helping to run its general election campaign.

    Stuart Wheeler, who has given Ukip more than £700,000 during the past five years, has threatened to stop donating to the party after a row over the fate of his ally Neil Hamilton, the party’s deputy chairman.

    But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Wheeler said he had decided to give a further £100,000 during the next few months in an effort to secure the seats Ukip is targeting at May’s election.

    Despite his donations, Mr Wheeler predicted the party would fall well short of the £7m-£8m target he said had been set by Nigel Farage, the party’s leader.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbce45fa-ac7f-11e4-9aaa-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RudC7aHV
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited February 2015
    Surprised nobody has mentioned why Eddy Spheroids gets receipts for everything...expenses...remember his / his wifes were a very interesting setup and it was only a friendly Telegraph journo of his that decided they weren't worth more of a look into.

    Also, I see that Ed Miliband is being business friendly again...YOU MUST TAKE APRRENTICES OR ELSE...don't mean to be funny, but not all businesses are applicable for taking apprentices. Also, he is again making these blanket commitments that all young people with x grades get one, the only way that is possible is if the state are going to start creating lots of them in the public sector, which means one thing...more spending.

    Gordo used to make these kind of promises and of course found it just isn't that simple. Same with Ed's "I will get x thousand more home carers" even though he can't make that happen.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Surprised nobody has mentioned why Eddy Spheroids gets receipts for everything...expenses...remember his / his wives were a very interesting setup and it was only a friendly Telegraph journo of his that decided they weren't worth more of a look into.

    I imagine his receipts were in order for his house transactions...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325590/Ed-Balls-and-Yvette-Cooper-flipped-homes-three-times-MPs-expenses.html

    Both Ed's talking plenty of spheroids at the moment, sadly a lot of voters will believe them.
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    One of the UK Independence party’s most generous donors has dropped his threat never to fund the party again, and plans to spend £100,000 helping to run its general election campaign.

    Stuart Wheeler, who has given Ukip more than £700,000 during the past five years, has threatened to stop donating to the party after a row over the fate of his ally Neil Hamilton, the party’s deputy chairman.

    But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Wheeler said he had decided to give a further £100,000 during the next few months in an effort to secure the seats Ukip is targeting at May’s election.

    Despite his donations, Mr Wheeler predicted the party would fall well short of the £7m-£8m target he said had been set by Nigel Farage, the party’s leader.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbce45fa-ac7f-11e4-9aaa-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RudC7aHV

    Mr Wheeler:

    "I have given money for two particular constituencies — South Thanet and Ashford. "

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ashford/

    --------

    UKIP's best fundraising year to date was 2013, £2.4 million.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/details-of-accounts
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited February 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Surprised nobody has mentioned why Eddy Spheroids gets receipts for everything...expenses...remember his / his wifes were a very interesting setup and it was only a friendly Telegraph journo of his that decided they weren't worth more of a look into.

    Also, I see that Ed Miliband is being business friendly again...YOU MUST TAKE APRRENTICES OR ELSE...don't mean to be funny, but not all businesses are applicable for taking apprentices. Also, he is again making these blanket commitments that all young people with x grades get one, the only way that is possible is if the state are going to start creating lots of them in the public sector, which means one thing...more spending.

    Gordo used to make these kind of promises and of course found it just isn't that simple. Same with Ed's "I will get x thousand more home carers" even though he can't make that happen.

    Unless their promises get the proper level of scrutiny, it won't matter a jot. Sounds good to his target audience.

    On the plus side, the more leftward he travels, the more clear-blue-water opens up and the more polarised the election becomes. In this event, I would expect to see some claw-back from the UKIP highs and a reduction in others.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    And here it is, Ed B's actual comment.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02k40z5
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Corky !

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Sorry you what....or is this the Surrey subsample?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    I think that qualifies as "a corker".
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    EICILOTO?

    Edit: not for long, obviously
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Can I be first to say "outlier"?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Squirrel down...I repeat squirrel is down...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I'm taking a 24 hour break from PB and politics.

    I think I might have damaged a rib or two laughing.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    That is very, very amusing.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    WTF poll.

    Cross over.

    Outlier?

    Call in the respondents for re-education.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    So to be clear. "Ed's great week" has so far seen Labour lead slashed by a third as the newspapers might have it, or 'no change' as those a little better versed in MOE & so forth would see it?

    Just as well his major Economy announcement wasn't distracted by any extraneous factors.....
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Must be an outlier. Insanely good poll for the Cons if it isn't. Wonder what Ashcroft will say today.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Can I be the first to say it's good to have ICM back as the Gold Standard
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Basil is partying.

    Share price in tisues has just rocketed.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Arf.

    Those goalposts have just dropped onto Basil's head.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Purple / Yellow cross over with ICM :D

  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Workman paid in cash, bad job, letter to HMRC with hints about odd bookeeping.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Another phone poll with UKIP on 9/single digits.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Again, fieldwork of 13th-15th. If this had been carried out after the Sunday revelations we would be looking at Con 40 (+10) Lab 28 (-5)
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    TGOHF said:

    Purple / Yellow cross over with ICM :D

    Not uncommon with ICM.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I can imagine the Good Lord being furious with ICM....HE does the good polls for the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Really...have you seen how much credit card companies charge...especially if the customer is waving an American Express card. My local mechanic recently informed me that he wont take AE anymore and is reviewing all the costs of other providers.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Ed's great week!........titter........

    Oh well, I expect normal business will resume shortly, but you'd need a heart of stone...etc, etc...
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    When I saw the populus I thought the drops for both Labour & Conservative was down to the negativity generated by all the mudslinging nonsense about legal tax avoidance. The I saw ICM - and it suggests that the s*** is primarily hitting Labour. What joy!:)
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another phone poll with UKIP on 9/single digits.

    Cork popper and Keap Pipper.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Wow! ..... and this from the Gold Standard too.

    Don't disappear now, TSE ...... just when we need you to present those deep blue bar charts.

    Perhaps OGH will do the honours instead?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    compouter2 said:

    Basil is partying.

    Share price in tisues has just rocketed.

    Excellent!
  • DaemonBarber
    DaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Don't we normally see polls at the start of the week being more favourable to Labour???
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Tissue_Price said:

    Again, fieldwork of 13th-15th. If this had been carried out after the Sunday revelations we would be looking at Con 40 (+10) Lab 28 (-5)

    I thought it would of been Con 98 (+loads)The Rest 2 (down loads)
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    What's that sound at BBC HQ...pop pop pop...it doesn't seem to be champagne corks this time.
  • saddo
    saddo Posts: 534
    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Businesses need turnover of c £80k or more to be VAT registered. Many local businesses like window cleaners or hedge trimmers do not charge VAT.

    It's up to the trader to provide an invoice. Labour as ever don't understand either small companies or the tax laws.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    About a month before the Euros ICM had Labour on 35 and UKIP on 20

    I've heard its only their final poll that matters...
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    Now all we await is the thread-header to explain how the ICM poll is bad for the Tories:)
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Tissue_Price said:

    Again, fieldwork of 13th-15th. If this had been carried out after the Sunday revelations we would be looking at Con 40 (+10) Lab 28 (-5)

    LOL!
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Roger said:

    Can I be the first to say it's good to have ICM back as the Gold Standard

    The Grauniad agrees:

    But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    This is Tories' highest rating with ICM in the last 18 months.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I love polls like this, it means the fall is even bigger when the correction comes out a month later.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.

    No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited February 2015
    What about loads of pictures of Dave/Ed like we did before the last election"
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    felix said:

    Now all we await is the thread-header to explain how the ICM poll is bad for the Tories:)

    Thats what the constituency sub polling is for ;)

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    It is clearly an outlier..I think what we are seeing though is the full on assault by Labour / Guardian / BBC over tax issues doesn't seem to have moved the needle at all towards Labour. I think for us who bet for a living that is significant.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheWatcher said:

    Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.

    No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.

    Lucy Powell's strategy of more Ed, more of the time seems to be working as intended.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Carlotta

    "But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer."

    Well I sometimes read the Guardian but had no idea they read me!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Largest Tory lead with ICM since before the Omnishambles budget
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I predict Ashcroft showing 10% Tory lead....no one, I mean no one, out-Ashcroft's the Good Lord.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    compouter2 said:

    I love polls like this, it means the fall is even bigger when the correction comes out a month later.

    Ouch! We feel your pain - stiff upper lip and all that.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    ICM Gold Standard!!
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    All very amusing. If I were a Tory I would be delighted. They deserve their gloating. This poll is an absolute humdinger for them.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour need a pasty tax budget...
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    Because there is a more than 50% chance that this is an outlier. Remember what Mike says about polling companies, it is the ones without outliers that are not reliable. The key is figuring out what the outliers actually are, on the face of it this is probably an outlier, ICM just can't come out and declare that their poll is probably rubbish though.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    From this poll, I can only conclude that RobD is airborne
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Usual rules

    1) 1 in 20 polls is an outlier
    2) You can't call a trend based on one poll, we need to some more polling
    3) But it is ICM, the Gold Standard, but 1 and 2 still apply.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    saddo said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Businesses need turnover of c £80k or more to be VAT registered. Many local businesses like window cleaners or hedge trimmers do not charge VAT.

    It's up to the trader to provide an invoice. Labour as ever don't understand either small companies or the tax laws.
    At that level its more likely they wont put it through the books at all. VAT or no VAT
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    It is clearly an outlier..I think what we are seeing though is the full on assault by Labour / Guardian / BBC over tax issues doesn't seem to have moved the needle at all towards Labour. I think for us who bet for a living that is significant.
    Tax avoidance is mostly preaching to the converted [though some of those have fecked off to the Greens & SNP, hence the necessity of doing so]. Elections are won in the centre ground.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Nice cartoon, Marf!

    We are all cartoonists now!
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    About a month before the Euros ICM had Labour on 35 and UKIP on 20

    I've heard its only their final poll that matters...

    A final poll, carried out at the cost to the taxpayer of millions of pounds, and shared with the leaders of the Better Together campaign.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SouthamObserver said:

    All very amusing. If I were a Tory I would be delighted. They deserve their gloating. This poll is an absolute humdinger for them.

    Still 32 would be a good result for Labour - up from 30 in the last election..
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.

    What will BJO have to do if you Baxter the polls for him?


    Heartless ex-Tory contributing to unemployment.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Con 15 short of a majority if Baxtersd
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.

    Interestingly, on the 2013 proposed boundaries, they'd have an overall majority of 18 on those figures.

    Just goes to show how damaging it was to Conservative chances at this election to lose that vote.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    EICINPM with ICM!
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited February 2015
    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    I would like to see the regional splits for this poll, Tory lead in England should be pretty decent even with a Labour collapse in Scotland.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    Clearly an outlier, but welcome cheer and a poke in the eye for the smug lefties.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!

    Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...

  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

    Buy Kleenex shares.....
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Usual rules

    1) 1 in 20 polls is an outlier
    2) You can't call a trend based on one poll, we need to some more polling
    3) But it is ICM, the Gold Standard, but 1 and 2 still apply.

    Didn't ICM have Labour in front by a big amount last August when the rest of the polls were showing it to be very tight? What are the chances of two outliers in six months?

  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Amusing - those were the days (Saturday)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2954033/JAMES-FORSYTH-Watch-Ed-tax-triumph-bite-backside.html

    "Ever since Miliband was told on Thursday of Lord Fink’s admission, just before delivering a speech on education at his old school, the mood in the Labour Party has been transformed.
    Even frontbenchers who used to fear the worst are now wondering how long Tory discipline can hold if Labour’s slim lead in the polls continues.
    One of them quips: ‘I wonder when they’ll start to get the willies.’"
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    Carlotta

    "But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer."

    Well I sometimes read the Guardian but had no idea they read me!

    I'm sure they hang on every word.......

    John Rentoul either posts here, reads here, or thinks the same as some of the posters on here, as ideas first floated here often end up in his column.....

    I think the polling point that 'Miliband has poorer ratings in Scotland than Cameron' first saw the light of day here......
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    It must be burning you up inside.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @compouter2
    The Tories are feeling the surge, but it will be a b*gger to clean off of their keyboards ;)
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
    You should check those leads 20 seem to be Labour
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    Because there is a more than 50% chance that this is an outlier. Remember what Mike says about polling companies, it is the ones without outliers that are not reliable. The key is figuring out what the outliers actually are, on the face of it this is probably an outlier, ICM just can't come out and declare that their poll is probably rubbish though.
    Outlier doesn't mean ignore. It just means that the true position is probably closer to what you would have expected.

    Really we should just treat all polls as new information and feed them into our prior expectation - and that prior expectation should be affected both by other polls, and by events.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited February 2015
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Usual rules

    1) 1 in 20 polls is an outlier
    2) You can't call a trend based on one poll, we need to some more polling
    3) But it is ICM, the Gold Standard, but 1 and 2 still apply.

    Didn't ICM have Labour in front by a big amount last August when the rest of the polls were showing it to be very tight? What are the chances of two outliers in six months?

    They did, when either side, it was a Tory lead of 1/Lab lead of 2.

    I have my own theory, that we're going to see more outliers in 6 party politics.

    Edit: I have asked if ICM have changed their methodology, but normally they flag up in advance if they have undertaken a change in methodology.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!

    Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...

    Were you not anticipating the polls moving?
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MarqueeMark said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

    Buy Kleenex shares.....
    A bit too late,they rocketed within seconds of the poll being released.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Loltastic to read IOS' musings of only yesterday:

    "Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.

    I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?"

    Now he knows what recency bias is.

    That said, it is obviously in the bag for Dave now. All we need is a deck of cards to occupy our time between now and the formality of May 7.
  • JSpring
    JSpring Posts: 106
    Tories up a lot, Labour well within the MoE. I think that should count as a good poll for the Tories rather than a particularly bad one for Labour...but then again we live in an era of bashing our enemies rather than touting our own credentials.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited February 2015
    ICM seem to have got rather "jumpy".

    For example, in December they had the Tories on 28% - Now they have them at 36%...

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    compouter2 said:

    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
    You should check those leads 20 seem to be Labour
    Who reads yesterday's papers?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    So the Tories gained from Lab, the Lib Dems, UKIP and the Greens.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited February 2015
    For those wot missed it, ELBOW for week-ending 15th Feb:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184

    Labour lead 1.5% largest for 4 weeks
    Labour's 33.9% largest ELBOW score this year
    UKIP have their lowest ELBOW score 14.2% since 5th October
    LibDem lead of 1.3% over Greens largest for 5 weeks
    Greens lowest score 6.2% of this year
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
    But there does seem to be something of a pattern, Anorak, whereby Labour register a string of small leads which are interrupted occasionally by a thumping great Tory lead.

    It's usually Lord Ashcroft, but this time ICM. Not sure what to make of it.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    With UKIP's share of the vote in single figures, perhaps Stuart Wheeler will decide that discretion is the better part of valour and keep his would-be donor cash in his trousers.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Labour leads in ELBOW since August:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567039449570107393
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    LibDems versus Greens in ELBOW since August:
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567055328991514624
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    Need part-ELBOW.....
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    ICM? Must be an outlier! Tories up 6 indeed :)
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