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edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Copenhagen shootings and the day’s first poll showing LAB 2% ahead

Marf on the Copenhagen shootings pic.twitter.com/gUxVyMOQAU

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  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    First again!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Guardian/ICM poll coming up soon ...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    One of the UK Independence party’s most generous donors has dropped his threat never to fund the party again, and plans to spend £100,000 helping to run its general election campaign.

    Stuart Wheeler, who has given Ukip more than £700,000 during the past five years, has threatened to stop donating to the party after a row over the fate of his ally Neil Hamilton, the party’s deputy chairman.

    But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Wheeler said he had decided to give a further £100,000 during the next few months in an effort to secure the seats Ukip is targeting at May’s election.

    Despite his donations, Mr Wheeler predicted the party would fall well short of the £7m-£8m target he said had been set by Nigel Farage, the party’s leader.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbce45fa-ac7f-11e4-9aaa-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RudC7aHV
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited February 2015
    Surprised nobody has mentioned why Eddy Spheroids gets receipts for everything...expenses...remember his / his wifes were a very interesting setup and it was only a friendly Telegraph journo of his that decided they weren't worth more of a look into.

    Also, I see that Ed Miliband is being business friendly again...YOU MUST TAKE APRRENTICES OR ELSE...don't mean to be funny, but not all businesses are applicable for taking apprentices. Also, he is again making these blanket commitments that all young people with x grades get one, the only way that is possible is if the state are going to start creating lots of them in the public sector, which means one thing...more spending.

    Gordo used to make these kind of promises and of course found it just isn't that simple. Same with Ed's "I will get x thousand more home carers" even though he can't make that happen.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Surprised nobody has mentioned why Eddy Spheroids gets receipts for everything...expenses...remember his / his wives were a very interesting setup and it was only a friendly Telegraph journo of his that decided they weren't worth more of a look into.

    I imagine his receipts were in order for his house transactions...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5325590/Ed-Balls-and-Yvette-Cooper-flipped-homes-three-times-MPs-expenses.html

    Both Ed's talking plenty of spheroids at the moment, sadly a lot of voters will believe them.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    One of the UK Independence party’s most generous donors has dropped his threat never to fund the party again, and plans to spend £100,000 helping to run its general election campaign.

    Stuart Wheeler, who has given Ukip more than £700,000 during the past five years, has threatened to stop donating to the party after a row over the fate of his ally Neil Hamilton, the party’s deputy chairman.

    But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Wheeler said he had decided to give a further £100,000 during the next few months in an effort to secure the seats Ukip is targeting at May’s election.

    Despite his donations, Mr Wheeler predicted the party would fall well short of the £7m-£8m target he said had been set by Nigel Farage, the party’s leader.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbce45fa-ac7f-11e4-9aaa-00144feab7de.html#axzz3RudC7aHV

    Mr Wheeler:

    "I have given money for two particular constituencies — South Thanet and Ashford. "

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ashford/

    --------

    UKIP's best fundraising year to date was 2013, £2.4 million.

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/political-parties-campaigning-and-donations/political-parties-annual-accounts/details-of-accounts
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited February 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Surprised nobody has mentioned why Eddy Spheroids gets receipts for everything...expenses...remember his / his wifes were a very interesting setup and it was only a friendly Telegraph journo of his that decided they weren't worth more of a look into.

    Also, I see that Ed Miliband is being business friendly again...YOU MUST TAKE APRRENTICES OR ELSE...don't mean to be funny, but not all businesses are applicable for taking apprentices. Also, he is again making these blanket commitments that all young people with x grades get one, the only way that is possible is if the state are going to start creating lots of them in the public sector, which means one thing...more spending.

    Gordo used to make these kind of promises and of course found it just isn't that simple. Same with Ed's "I will get x thousand more home carers" even though he can't make that happen.

    Unless their promises get the proper level of scrutiny, it won't matter a jot. Sounds good to his target audience.

    On the plus side, the more leftward he travels, the more clear-blue-water opens up and the more polarised the election becomes. In this event, I would expect to see some claw-back from the UKIP highs and a reduction in others.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    And here it is, Ed B's actual comment.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02k40z5
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Corky !

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Sorry you what....or is this the Surrey subsample?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    I think that qualifies as "a corker".
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    EICILOTO?

    Edit: not for long, obviously
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Can I be first to say "outlier"?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Squirrel down...I repeat squirrel is down...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    I'm taking a 24 hour break from PB and politics.

    I think I might have damaged a rib or two laughing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    That is very, very amusing.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    WTF poll.

    Cross over.

    Outlier?

    Call in the respondents for re-education.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    So to be clear. "Ed's great week" has so far seen Labour lead slashed by a third as the newspapers might have it, or 'no change' as those a little better versed in MOE & so forth would see it?

    Just as well his major Economy announcement wasn't distracted by any extraneous factors.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,740
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Must be an outlier. Insanely good poll for the Cons if it isn't. Wonder what Ashcroft will say today.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    Can I be the first to say it's good to have ICM back as the Gold Standard
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Basil is partying.

    Share price in tisues has just rocketed.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Arf.

    Those goalposts have just dropped onto Basil's head.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Purple / Yellow cross over with ICM :D

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Workman paid in cash, bad job, letter to HMRC with hints about odd bookeeping.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Another phone poll with UKIP on 9/single digits.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Again, fieldwork of 13th-15th. If this had been carried out after the Sunday revelations we would be looking at Con 40 (+10) Lab 28 (-5)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    TGOHF said:

    Purple / Yellow cross over with ICM :D

    Not uncommon with ICM.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I can imagine the Good Lord being furious with ICM....HE does the good polls for the Tories.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Really...have you seen how much credit card companies charge...especially if the customer is waving an American Express card. My local mechanic recently informed me that he wont take AE anymore and is reviewing all the costs of other providers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Ed's great week!........titter........

    Oh well, I expect normal business will resume shortly, but you'd need a heart of stone...etc, etc...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    When I saw the populus I thought the drops for both Labour & Conservative was down to the negativity generated by all the mudslinging nonsense about legal tax avoidance. The I saw ICM - and it suggests that the s*** is primarily hitting Labour. What joy!:)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Another phone poll with UKIP on 9/single digits.

    Cork popper and Keap Pipper.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Wow! ..... and this from the Gold Standard too.

    Don't disappear now, TSE ...... just when we need you to present those deep blue bar charts.

    Perhaps OGH will do the honours instead?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    compouter2 said:

    Basil is partying.

    Share price in tisues has just rocketed.

    Excellent!
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    Don't we normally see polls at the start of the week being more favourable to Labour???
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Tissue_Price said:

    Again, fieldwork of 13th-15th. If this had been carried out after the Sunday revelations we would be looking at Con 40 (+10) Lab 28 (-5)

    I thought it would of been Con 98 (+loads)The Rest 2 (down loads)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    What's that sound at BBC HQ...pop pop pop...it doesn't seem to be champagne corks this time.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Businesses need turnover of c £80k or more to be VAT registered. Many local businesses like window cleaners or hedge trimmers do not charge VAT.

    It's up to the trader to provide an invoice. Labour as ever don't understand either small companies or the tax laws.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    About a month before the Euros ICM had Labour on 35 and UKIP on 20

    I've heard its only their final poll that matters...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Now all we await is the thread-header to explain how the ICM poll is bad for the Tories:)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,740
    Tissue_Price said:

    Again, fieldwork of 13th-15th. If this had been carried out after the Sunday revelations we would be looking at Con 40 (+10) Lab 28 (-5)

    LOL!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Roger said:

    Can I be the first to say it's good to have ICM back as the Gold Standard

    The Grauniad agrees:

    But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    This is Tories' highest rating with ICM in the last 18 months.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I love polls like this, it means the fall is even bigger when the correction comes out a month later.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.

    No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    edited February 2015
    What about loads of pictures of Dave/Ed like we did before the last election"
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    felix said:

    Now all we await is the thread-header to explain how the ICM poll is bad for the Tories:)

    Thats what the constituency sub polling is for ;)

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    It is clearly an outlier..I think what we are seeing though is the full on assault by Labour / Guardian / BBC over tax issues doesn't seem to have moved the needle at all towards Labour. I think for us who bet for a living that is significant.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,740
    TheWatcher said:

    Ah, Miliband's face has been splashed all over the media.

    No wonder Labour are desperate to keep photos of Ed's nowhere near their campaign literature.

    Lucy Powell's strategy of more Ed, more of the time seems to be working as intended.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,062
    Carlotta

    "But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer."

    Well I sometimes read the Guardian but had no idea they read me!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Largest Tory lead with ICM since before the Omnishambles budget
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I predict Ashcroft showing 10% Tory lead....no one, I mean no one, out-Ashcroft's the Good Lord.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    compouter2 said:

    I love polls like this, it means the fall is even bigger when the correction comes out a month later.

    Ouch! We feel your pain - stiff upper lip and all that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    ICM Gold Standard!!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    All very amusing. If I were a Tory I would be delighted. They deserve their gloating. This poll is an absolute humdinger for them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour need a pasty tax budget...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,740
    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    Because there is a more than 50% chance that this is an outlier. Remember what Mike says about polling companies, it is the ones without outliers that are not reliable. The key is figuring out what the outliers actually are, on the face of it this is probably an outlier, ICM just can't come out and declare that their poll is probably rubbish though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    From this poll, I can only conclude that RobD is airborne
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Usual rules

    1) 1 in 20 polls is an outlier
    2) You can't call a trend based on one poll, we need to some more polling
    3) But it is ICM, the Gold Standard, but 1 and 2 still apply.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    saddo said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting conversation about receipts cash etc. I think most people who get work done where the bill is over say £300 and the workman asks for cash (they know where you live so no question about the probity of your cheque/card) are telling you that they want the transaction to be unrecorded.

    As Izzy says any workman can demand cash. What would be interesting is knowing whether you bear any responsibility if he says i'll give you £50 discount for cash without receipt?

    Businesses need turnover of c £80k or more to be VAT registered. Many local businesses like window cleaners or hedge trimmers do not charge VAT.

    It's up to the trader to provide an invoice. Labour as ever don't understand either small companies or the tax laws.
    At that level its more likely they wont put it through the books at all. VAT or no VAT
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    It is clearly an outlier..I think what we are seeing though is the full on assault by Labour / Guardian / BBC over tax issues doesn't seem to have moved the needle at all towards Labour. I think for us who bet for a living that is significant.
    Tax avoidance is mostly preaching to the converted [though some of those have fecked off to the Greens & SNP, hence the necessity of doing so]. Elections are won in the centre ground.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,906
    Nice cartoon, Marf!

    We are all cartoonists now!
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    isam said:

    About a month before the Euros ICM had Labour on 35 and UKIP on 20

    I've heard its only their final poll that matters...

    A final poll, carried out at the cost to the taxpayer of millions of pounds, and shared with the leaders of the Better Together campaign.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SouthamObserver said:

    All very amusing. If I were a Tory I would be delighted. They deserve their gloating. This poll is an absolute humdinger for them.

    Still 32 would be a good result for Labour - up from 30 in the last election..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.

    What will BJO have to do if you Baxter the polls for him?


    Heartless ex-Tory contributing to unemployment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    EICINPM with ICM!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Con 15 short of a majority if Baxtersd
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives would win 311 seats on these numbers, according to Baxter.

    Interestingly, on the 2013 proposed boundaries, they'd have an overall majority of 18 on those figures.

    Just goes to show how damaging it was to Conservative chances at this election to lose that vote.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited February 2015
    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,740
    I would like to see the regional splits for this poll, Tory lead in England should be pretty decent even with a Labour collapse in Scotland.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    Clearly an outlier, but welcome cheer and a poke in the eye for the smug lefties.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!

    Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,868
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

    Buy Kleenex shares.....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Usual rules

    1) 1 in 20 polls is an outlier
    2) You can't call a trend based on one poll, we need to some more polling
    3) But it is ICM, the Gold Standard, but 1 and 2 still apply.

    Didn't ICM have Labour in front by a big amount last August when the rest of the polls were showing it to be very tight? What are the chances of two outliers in six months?

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Amusing - those were the days (Saturday)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2954033/JAMES-FORSYTH-Watch-Ed-tax-triumph-bite-backside.html

    "Ever since Miliband was told on Thursday of Lord Fink’s admission, just before delivering a speech on education at his old school, the mood in the Labour Party has been transformed.
    Even frontbenchers who used to fear the worst are now wondering how long Tory discipline can hold if Labour’s slim lead in the polls continues.
    One of them quips: ‘I wonder when they’ll start to get the willies.’"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited February 2015
    Roger said:

    Carlotta

    "But having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard, and so Monday’s result will bring the Tories particular cheer."

    Well I sometimes read the Guardian but had no idea they read me!

    I'm sure they hang on every word.......

    John Rentoul either posts here, reads here, or thinks the same as some of the posters on here, as ideas first floated here often end up in his column.....

    I think the polling point that 'Miliband has poorer ratings in Scotland than Cameron' first saw the light of day here......
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,740
    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    It must be burning you up inside.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @compouter2
    The Tories are feeling the surge, but it will be a b*gger to clean off of their keyboards ;)
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
    You should check those leads 20 seem to be Labour
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    "Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, cautions against putting too much weight on any single survey, but also said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

    Obviously not as confident as the Tory Pom Pom girls on here

    Because there is a more than 50% chance that this is an outlier. Remember what Mike says about polling companies, it is the ones without outliers that are not reliable. The key is figuring out what the outliers actually are, on the face of it this is probably an outlier, ICM just can't come out and declare that their poll is probably rubbish though.
    Outlier doesn't mean ignore. It just means that the true position is probably closer to what you would have expected.

    Really we should just treat all polls as new information and feed them into our prior expectation - and that prior expectation should be affected both by other polls, and by events.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited February 2015
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Usual rules

    1) 1 in 20 polls is an outlier
    2) You can't call a trend based on one poll, we need to some more polling
    3) But it is ICM, the Gold Standard, but 1 and 2 still apply.

    Didn't ICM have Labour in front by a big amount last August when the rest of the polls were showing it to be very tight? What are the chances of two outliers in six months?

    They did, when either side, it was a Tory lead of 1/Lab lead of 2.

    I have my own theory, that we're going to see more outliers in 6 party politics.

    Edit: I have asked if ICM have changed their methodology, but normally they flag up in advance if they have undertaken a change in methodology.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    If this poll was the result then I would lose quite a lot of money!

    Then again, if 99% of the polls this year were right I would win quite a lot...

    Were you not anticipating the polls moving?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    MarqueeMark said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    icm

    Con 36 (+6) Lab 32 (-1) LD 10 (-1) UKIP 9 (-2) Greens 7 (-2)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

    First the caveat. That must be an outlier/rogue (never sure what the technical difference is between them).

    Now I'm going to sit in the corner and p1ss myself laughing :smiley:

    Buy Kleenex shares.....
    A bit too late,they rocketed within seconds of the poll being released.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Loltastic to read IOS' musings of only yesterday:

    "Another day down - another day without a breakthrough for the Tories - another day closer to Ed Miliband being PM.

    I wonder if the press will suddenly panic and go into reverse. Realise the inevitable and try and buy some favours from Ed?"

    Now he knows what recency bias is.

    That said, it is obviously in the bag for Dave now. All we need is a deck of cards to occupy our time between now and the formality of May 7.
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 109
    Tories up a lot, Labour well within the MoE. I think that should count as a good poll for the Tories rather than a particularly bad one for Labour...but then again we live in an era of bashing our enemies rather than touting our own credentials.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    edited February 2015
    ICM seem to have got rather "jumpy".

    For example, in December they had the Tories on 28% - Now they have them at 36%...

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    compouter2 said:

    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
    You should check those leads 20 seem to be Labour
    Who reads yesterday's papers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    So the Tories gained from Lab, the Lib Dems, UKIP and the Greens.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,906
    edited February 2015
    For those wot missed it, ELBOW for week-ending 15th Feb:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567038686290653184

    Labour lead 1.5% largest for 4 weeks
    Labour's 33.9% largest ELBOW score this year
    UKIP have their lowest ELBOW score 14.2% since 5th October
    LibDem lead of 1.3% over Greens largest for 5 weeks
    Greens lowest score 6.2% of this year
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Tory surge now on:

    Out of the last 28 polls Tory lead in 4

    You should chuck those grapes, they seem to be a bit sour.
    But there does seem to be something of a pattern, Anorak, whereby Labour register a string of small leads which are interrupted occasionally by a thumping great Tory lead.

    It's usually Lord Ashcroft, but this time ICM. Not sure what to make of it.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    With UKIP's share of the vote in single figures, perhaps Stuart Wheeler will decide that discretion is the better part of valour and keep his would-be donor cash in his trousers.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,906
    Labour leads in ELBOW since August:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567039449570107393
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,906
    LibDems versus Greens in ELBOW since August:
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/567055328991514624
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,868
    Need part-ELBOW.....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,906
    ICM? Must be an outlier! Tories up 6 indeed :)
This discussion has been closed.

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