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This bodes ill for Reform – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,982
edited 8:02AM in General
This bodes ill for Reform – politicalbetting.com

Striking that Reform have now overtaken Labour as the party people would most like to vote against – very much matches what we heard in Gorton with many voters primary concern less merits of Lab/Green but who could best stop Reform.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,635
    First
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,635
    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,717
    While the councils that Reform are running have sub-optimal performance surely that's true of all councils because they a now little more than social care providers with other things tacked on top having to be run with whatever budget isn't subsumed by the social care needs of children and the elderly
  • eekeek Posts: 32,717
    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    I don’t think Farage wants to be PM, he wants money and immediate attention.

    Like Boris governing would be real work that he doesn’t want to get involved in
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,474
    Spot on; what sensible person wouldn't want to vote against the likes of Jenrick, Braverman, Zahawi and the rest - they were the reason the Tories got thrown out and Labour put in during 2024.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,155
    edited 8:15AM
    Will the US and Israel keep removing any new leader until they get to one which is seen as less extreme ?

    We could be here a while !

    Theres also the issue of civilian casualties , at what point does that start turning hearts and minds in Iran against the war.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,412
    It will be interesting to see that Survation poll in detail. Particularly what other questions were asked.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    Right now the polls reflect that people want to shout.
    Come the GE the people who want a government rock up. Plus, more actively don't want Reform than do. They'll get tactically screwed all over the shop whilst the gap narrows hard in headline VI.
    Farage will bugger off before the inevitable defeat
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692
    As more people see the greens the numbers start to go against them too. Was 3% now 7%

    If Reform slavishly support Trump and our impending economic implosion, unless the off ramp is activated, and they want to steal pension pots for a wealth fund then fuck them.

    I’d not vote for that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,612
    Thank Allah I am six weeks into an twelve month contract.

    Energy bills in UK could rise £500 as Trump's Iran war sends gas and oil prices soaring, say economists

    The conflict may hit an expected rise in living standards in Britain this year, says the Resolution Foundation

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/energy-bills-gas-electricity-oil-iran-war-donald-trump-b1273378.html
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692
    edited 8:19AM
    @rcs100 anyone else is this bad ?

    Doesn’t look great.

    https://x.com/junegoh_sparta/status/2029068904853807283?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,737
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez on Iran: “Spain is against this disaster. Because we understand that governments are here to improve people's lives, to provide solutions to problems, not to make people's lives worse.

    “And it is absolutely unacceptable that those leaders who are unable to fulfill that mission use the smoke of war to hide their failure and, in the process, fill the pockets of a few.”
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,828
    I think the Tory defections have started the rot.

    It’s telling that Labour defector never came. It reinforces that idea of Reform as the Tory cast-offs party.

    I don’t think that their problems are insurmountable. But I do think they are being reminded that the path to a GE victory will take a lot more hard work and reassurance than Farage currently offers, and it remains to be seen whether they can do it.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,836
    edited 8:27AM
    The Green surge complicates tactical voting.

    In Gorton and Denton, Labour and Greens combined won 66% of the vote against 29% for Reform. As I said before the election, a similar left-right split in previous elections meant Reform were unlikely to come through the middle regardless of how the Labour/Green vote was distributed.

    But there will be many seats where the left-right distribution is more even, and it's unclear whether Labour holding on versus Green surge is the most effective anti-Reform vote.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,776
    eek said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    I don’t think Farage wants to be PM, he wants money and immediate attention.

    Like Boris governing would be real work that he doesn’t want to get involved in
    This is a guess, but I think Farage is self-aware enough to know that he'd hate being PM. Everyone who tries the job fails in the end, and the mob he has spent decades whipping up would quickly turn on him.

    Boris really thought he could really do the job, and probably still does.

    Farage's problem know is the Springtime for Hitler one; a palpable hit that isn't meant to be one. If I were Nigel, I'd find a tame medic to sign me off on a long rest cure at the Goldeneye Estate.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    numbertwelve said:

    I think the Tory defections have started the rot.

    It’s telling that Labour defector never came. It reinforces that idea of Reform as the Tory cast-offs party.

    I don’t think that their problems are insurmountable. But I do think they are being reminded that the path to a GE victory will take a lot more hard work and reassurance than Farage currently offers, and it remains to be seen whether they can do it.

    Reforms problems will mount - Farage lags Badenoch (and Davey and Polanski) on favourables now and his gross positive is now only slightly above Badenoch. That's not a recipe for rolling the dice on an untested, inexperienced bunch of radicals.
    I think we will start to see anti reform tactical voting this May, and a fracturing of their current pledgers willingness to actually vote
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692
    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez on Iran: “Spain is against this disaster. Because we understand that governments are here to improve people's lives, to provide solutions to problems, not to make people's lives worse.

    “And it is absolutely unacceptable that those leaders who are unable to fulfill that mission use the smoke of war to hide their failure and, in the process, fill the pockets of a few.”

    I’m sure the Mullahs improved people’s lives.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,737
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    More Sanchez: “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East. A war that, in theory, it was said at the time, was being fought to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, bring democracy and ensure global security.

    “But which in reality, seen in perspective, produced the opposite effect, it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

    “The Iraq War generated a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a generalised increase in energy prices.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg7ubdvz6c23
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692
    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    I don’t think Farage wants to be PM, he wants money and immediate attention.

    Like Boris governing would be real work that he doesn’t want to get involved in
    This is a guess, but I think Farage is self-aware enough to know that he'd hate being PM. Everyone who tries the job fails in the end, and the mob he has spent decades whipping up would quickly turn on him.

    Boris really thought he could really do the job, and probably still does.

    Farage's problem know is the Springtime for Hitler one; a palpable hit that isn't meant to be one. If I were Nigel, I'd find a tame medic to sign me off on a long rest cure at the Goldeneye Estate.
    I’m sure Boris would jump at the opportunity to return !!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,433
    edited 8:35AM
    Ratters said:

    The Green surge complicates tactical voting.

    In Gorton and Denton, Labour and Greens combined won 66% of the vote against 29% for Reform. As I said before the election, a similar left-right split in previous elections meant Reform were unlikely to come through the middle regardless of how the Labour/Green vote was distributed.

    But there will be many seats where the left-right distribution is more even, and it's unclear whether Labour holding on versus Green surge is the most effective anti-Reform vote.

    I think what happened in the G and D polling that showed a 3 way tie (or nearly) was that the pollsters misunderstood the "Undecideds". These are younger and tend to be female. The assumption seemed to be that they were undecided between all 3 contenders, but the reality was that they were undecided between Labour and Green, and clearly broke to the Greens (if they voted at all). They were undecided about the best way to stop Reform.

    In the polls in June/July 24 there was a lot of late deciders too. Dealing with this as an issue is difficult for pollsters and punters, but also supports a busy ground campaign in the final week.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,869
    *news*

    https://x.com/dailymail/status/2029072866742764016?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    edited 8:36AM
    Taz said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    I don’t think Farage wants to be PM, he wants money and immediate attention.

    Like Boris governing would be real work that he doesn’t want to get involved in
    This is a guess, but I think Farage is self-aware enough to know that he'd hate being PM. Everyone who tries the job fails in the end, and the mob he has spent decades whipping up would quickly turn on him.

    Boris really thought he could really do the job, and probably still does.

    Farage's problem know is the Springtime for Hitler one; a palpable hit that isn't meant to be one. If I were Nigel, I'd find a tame medic to sign me off on a long rest cure at the Goldeneye Estate.
    I’m sure Boris would jump at the opportunity to return !!!
    My old man opined on the state of British politics the other day with this classic
    'This is all leading to bloody Boris bumbling back in isn't it?!'
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank Allah I am six weeks into an twelve month contract.

    Energy bills in UK could rise £500 as Trump's Iran war sends gas and oil prices soaring, say economists

    The conflict may hit an expected rise in living standards in Britain this year, says the Resolution Foundation

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/energy-bills-gas-electricity-oil-iran-war-donald-trump-b1273378.html

    This useless govt now have a convenient scapegoat for their inept economic mismanagement

    Also expect large pay demands from the non productive public sector. Hopefully it will speed up the transition to AI in many roles in the public sector
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,612
    Hah.


  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,836
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thank Allah I am six weeks into an twelve month contract.

    Energy bills in UK could rise £500 as Trump's Iran war sends gas and oil prices soaring, say economists

    The conflict may hit an expected rise in living standards in Britain this year, says the Resolution Foundation

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/energy-bills-gas-electricity-oil-iran-war-donald-trump-b1273378.html

    The energy price cap has been set for April to end June already so no one will see energy bills increase until the height of summer in July onwards.

    Fingers crossed things are resolved before the winter prices are locked in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,612
    edited 8:41AM
    @Morris_Dancer and @Sandpit

    You didn't hear this from me but I am hearing that the insurers have been contacted about postponing/cancelling the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix.

    Also discussions about the Baku, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, although we'll have much bigger problems if this special military operation is still continuing in December.

    Given the tightness of the calendar, if these races are postponedd, then they won't happen at all.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,869
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    I don’t think Farage wants to be PM, he wants money and immediate attention.

    Like Boris governing would be real work that he doesn’t want to get involved in
    This is a guess, but I think Farage is self-aware enough to know that he'd hate being PM. Everyone who tries the job fails in the end, and the mob he has spent decades whipping up would quickly turn on him.

    Boris really thought he could really do the job, and probably still does.

    Farage's problem know is the Springtime for Hitler one; a palpable hit that isn't meant to be one. If I were Nigel, I'd find a tame medic to sign me off on a long rest cure at the Goldeneye Estate.
    I’m sure Boris would jump at the opportunity to return !!!
    My old man opined on the state of British politics the other day with this classic
    'This is all leading to bloody Boris bumbling back in isn't it?!'
    That would be the fifth sign of the end of times.

    And lo, I beheld a grubby beige horse, and he who sat upon it ruled with sloth, lies and avarice.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 5,267
    I cannot who will win but there’s got to be a higher chance of a Tory-Labour battle in 2029 than thought now
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,602
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Morris_Dancer and @Sandpit

    You didn't hear this from me but I am hearing that the insurers have been contacted about postponing/cancelling the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix.

    Also discussions about the Baku, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, although we'll have much bigger problems if this special military operation is still continuing in December.

    Given the tightness of the calendar, if these races are postponedd, then they won't happen at all.

    Cheers for that info. I'm not too surprised by the possibility of Bahrain and Saudi being disrupted (although both have major links to the sport and will be very keen to hold races if at all possible). Baku's a long way into the calendar and Qatar/Abu Dhabi right near the end, if those get disrupted then this war will have lasted a long time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,433
    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,776
    Theuniondivvie said:

    *news*

    https://x.com/dailymail/status/2029072866742764016?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    We can point and laugh at the Daily Mail (it's basically a civic duty), but isn't this end times stuff one of the reasons the American Right is do keen on bombing the Middle East?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,185
    FPT…
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    another_richard said:

    bondegezou said:

    another_richard said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Senior WH official speaking to us in DC says:

    “THEY [IRAN] BASICALLY COULD HAVE BEEN DAYS OR WEEKS AWAY FROM A WEAPON IF THEY WOULD HAVE PUT THE EFFORT INTO IT. AND THEY HAD ALL THE CAPABILITY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT"

    WH says that view aligns with the IAEA boss.

    He just said this 👇

    I have been very clear and consistent in my reports on Iran’s nuclear programme: while there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb, its large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched uranium and refusal to grant my inspectors full access are cause for serious concern. For these reasons, my previous reports indicate that unless and until Iran assists the @IAEAorg in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the Agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful.

    https://x.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/2028927670805750265

    Then it is SHAMEFUL UK are not actively bombing Iran nuclear programme also - as they were just days away from Nuclear Strikes on Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USA?

    What an horrendous error of judgement from Starmer, the US must have shared this intel with his government over and over.

    Kemi needs to lead with this at PMQs. Kemi is proven 100% correct now for her total trust in the US, Israeli and Saudi existential need to take this action, and how she would have backed and joined in from the off, not far too late.
    I think you missed the word could and no evidence. This smacks of WMD and 45 minutes.
    The paragraph is surely saying: yes sir! No one can argue with you they know for sure and can prove Iran weren’t extremely close to having and using the bomb.

    What’s WMD and 45 minutes?
    What’s WMD and 45 minutes? WMD means weapons of mass damage. In 2003 - when I was 6 - was a claim Iraq could hit UK with a dangerous missile in about 45 minutes, which the anti war brigade asked for more evidence, but the person who wrote the document died. There was claims because he changed his mind on it, he had been murdered, so Blair called an enquiry to get to the bottom of it. The bottom line from the enquiry was all those people, basically left wing people like Jeremy Corbyn, who opposed removing Sadam - who my Dad said was really called Madass but changed it to become a Bathurst - were the ones who got proved wrong and liars. The extremely left wing head of BBC was anti war, so government sacked him.

    But this now is completely different. Trump has on his side the leader of IAEA, saying no one can argue with you, as they have zero evidence Iran definitely didn’t have tge bomb and about to use it on you and US allies in an illegal pre medicated strike.
    Bollocks. Zero evidence he didn't have a bomb? What about evidence they did have a bomb?

    What about in the middle of negotiations when Israel attacked?

    Classic tactics of a genocidal regime we already know about. Ask the Gazans
    Surely if Israel was so genocidal there would be no Gazans to ask ?

    Perhaps we need to compare percentages of say Eastern European Jews in the 1940s, Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in the 1910s, Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994 to Israel's actions in Gaza.
    That is one of the stupidest arguments that get trotted out.
    Nobody should be afraid of a few actual numbers.

    And those numbers are rather inconvenient to those claiming that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza.

    Because what do the numbers say ?

    The Rwandan, Armenian and Jewish genocides would be well over 50% deaths, possibly over 80% or even 90%.

    Whereas even with the maximum death claims in Gaza its about 3%.

    Which is bad but less than quite a few wars during the last century.

    Now I'm sure that Israel would eagerly expel all the people from Gaza - which would also be bad but again not something we haven't seen before, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 for example.

    For info my suggestion - not original other PBers have proposed it - would be for Israel to get Gaza but in return would have to give up its settlements in the West Bank.

    But I cannot see either side agreeing to that.
    What about the Bosnian genocide?
    About 3% of the Bosniak population. Tens of thousands dead. But nothing to be bothered about according to Richard.
    It was not 3% in Srebenica, it was about 30% killed with the other 70% forced to flee. It was genuine ethnic cleansing and an attempt to wipe out a population. Not a war triggered by atrocities like Hamas inflicted.
    It was about 3% of the overall population. It was, yes, absolutely ethnic cleansing and genocide.
    Because the genocide was in Srebenica, not everywhere. It was 30% in Srebenica.

    Nothing comparable to Srebenica happened in Gaza, thank goodness. It demeans what happened there to even make the comparison.
    Hold on, Bart. Genocide is defined in international law. It was a concept invented for international law. But you don’t believe international law exists
    That is not the case, I have never said it does not exist, I have always said that like the pirate code it is more guidelines than actual rules - and where possible we should respect the guidelines but we should not be treating them as immutable rules that have to be followed.

    The meaning of the word has always been an attempt to wipe out a population. Twisting it to mean anything else, belittles and devalues the meaning of the word.
    So, if these aren’t immutable rules that have to be followed, that means that genocide is OK sometimes? I mean, I recall you were actively advocating for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza for a while, before thankfully stepping back from that position.
    It is absolutely worth keeping a distinction between genocide and ethnic cleansing. I can not imagine the former ever being acceptable, but for moral rather than legal reasons. The latter might sometimes be, though it is certainly not ideal.

    What I actually said is if there is no other viable route to peace then it might be the least-worst option, and one well-trodden in the past century without outrage including just a couple of years ago (thankfully without much violence) as discussed earlier in this conversation.

    Rounding people up, digging trenches, and shooting them in the back of the head - I can not see any circumstances where that is acceptable. Because of morals.
    Peacefully seeing transfers of people when borders change - that might have a place.
    You are so keen to support peace that you would consider removing a whole population from a region to achieve it. Yet you are so keen for war that every US or Israeli bombing mission is worth it for a minuscule chance that it might lead to a positive change. Some would see you as a man full of contradictions, but I think that would be unfair. There is a common thread here: no sympathy for the civilians affected. If Gazans or Iranians have to suffer for your goals, so be it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    Theuniondivvie said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    I don’t think Farage wants to be PM, he wants money and immediate attention.

    Like Boris governing would be real work that he doesn’t want to get involved in
    This is a guess, but I think Farage is self-aware enough to know that he'd hate being PM. Everyone who tries the job fails in the end, and the mob he has spent decades whipping up would quickly turn on him.

    Boris really thought he could really do the job, and probably still does.

    Farage's problem know is the Springtime for Hitler one; a palpable hit that isn't meant to be one. If I were Nigel, I'd find a tame medic to sign me off on a long rest cure at the Goldeneye Estate.
    I’m sure Boris would jump at the opportunity to return !!!
    My old man opined on the state of British politics the other day with this classic
    'This is all leading to bloody Boris bumbling back in isn't it?!'
    That would be the fifth sign of the end of times.

    And lo, I beheld a grubby beige horse, and he who sat upon it ruled with sloth, lies and avarice.
    Yebbut if he were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth - that will be fine with Reform as long as that fourth is the Sub-continent....
  • eekeek Posts: 32,717
    edited 8:47AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Morris_Dancer and @Sandpit

    You didn't hear this from me but I am hearing that the insurers have been contacted about postponing/cancelling the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix.

    Also discussions about the Baku, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, although we'll have much bigger problems if this special military operation is still continuing in December.

    Given the tightness of the calendar, if these races are postponedd, then they won't happen at all.

    Love to know what insurance policy is going to pay out.

    And I suspect come November we will look back at those discussions about the latter races as foresight.

    A final race in Vegas is my expected outcome
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,155
    A rare misstep by Carney .

    Who now seems to be rowing back from his previous support . Hard to understand why he gave what seemed total support to begin with .

    Clearly if energy prices rocket and inflation rises it’s hard to avoid blame if you backed the action .

  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 5,267
    nico67 said:

    A rare misstep by Carney .

    Who now seems to be rowing back from his previous support . Hard to understand why he gave what seemed total support to begin with .

    Clearly if energy prices rocket and inflation rises it’s hard to avoid blame if you backed the action .

    He is looking like a muppet.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,380
    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    It would be worth Jesus coming back, and the end of the world, just to see the faces on evangelicals when Jesus explains to them they are going to hell for their views but thanks for helping bring him back.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    wooliedyed said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I think the Tory defections have started the rot.

    It’s telling that Labour defector never came. It reinforces that idea of Reform as the Tory cast-offs party.

    I don’t think that their problems are insurmountable. But I do think they are being reminded that the path to a GE victory will take a lot more hard work and reassurance than Farage currently offers, and it remains to be seen whether they can do it.

    Reforms problems will mount - Farage lags Badenoch (and Davey and Polanski) on favourables now and his gross positive is now only slightly above Badenoch. That's not a recipe for rolling the dice on an untested, inexperienced bunch of radicals.
    I think we will start to see anti reform tactical voting this May, and a fracturing of their current pledgers willingness to actually vote
    As soon as the Reform-inclined see that Reform is below the "old parties", in the poling they will realise that "nothing is going to change" and will drift away, some to those old parties, many to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,030
    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    So Trump's alleged affairs with underaged girls on Isle Epstein that need to be distracted from with a random war with a Middle Eastern country, are part of God's plan to bring on the Apocalypse?

    A case of God moving in mysterious ways. I guess.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I cannot who will win but there’s got to be a higher chance of a Tory-Labour battle in 2029 than thought now

    If the polling closes there will come a tipping point where (from a RefCon perspective) the Nans and Grandads who have been tempted by Farages blazer swing back to the Tories. 28/28/18 Lab/Con/Ref not out of the question by 2029
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    MarqueeMark said:

    wooliedyed said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I think the Tory defections have started the rot.

    It’s telling that Labour defector never came. It reinforces that idea of Reform as the Tory cast-offs party.

    I don’t think that their problems are insurmountable. But I do think they are being reminded that the path to a GE victory will take a lot more hard work and reassurance than Farage currently offers, and it remains to be seen whether they can do it.

    Reforms problems will mount - Farage lags Badenoch (and Davey and Polanski) on favourables now and his gross positive is now only slightly above Badenoch. That's not a recipe for rolling the dice on an untested, inexperienced bunch of radicals.
    I think we will start to see anti reform tactical voting this May, and a fracturing of their current pledgers willingness to actually vote
    As soon as the Reform-inclined see that Reform is below the "old parties", in the poling they will realise that "nothing is going to change" and will drift away, some to those old parties, many to the Can't Be Arsed Party.
    'No we can't'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    It would be worth Jesus coming back, and the end of the world, just to see the faces on evangelicals when Jesus explains to them they are going to hell for their views but thanks for helping bring him back.
    I'm hoping there's going to be a whole bunch of smiting going on to send them on their way...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez on Iran: “Spain is against this disaster. Because we understand that governments are here to improve people's lives, to provide solutions to problems, not to make people's lives worse.

    “And it is absolutely unacceptable that those leaders who are unable to fulfill that mission use the smoke of war to hide their failure and, in the process, fill the pockets of a few.”

    I’m sure the Mullahs improved people’s lives.

    That isn't what he is saying, as you should know.

    “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East. A war that, in theory, it was said at the time, was being fought to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, bring democracy and ensure global security.

    “But which in reality, seen in perspective, produced the opposite effect, it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

    “The Iraq War generated a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a generalised increase in energy prices.”

    Is any of that incorrect ?

    And what's the plan to stop that happening this time around ?

    Oh, there isn't one.

    At least 23 years ago, the US assembled a coalition, and some measure of international agreement for the action.
    This time around, it's a war on a whim, precipitated by Netenyahu.

    The line that those who question this bombing campaign are supporters of the Iranian regime is an utterly threadbare one.
    If Trump was going to do something like this without any real planning, the time to do so would have been when the mullahs started massacring the protestors.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,249
    edited 8:56AM
    Apple new 27-inch monitor, $3.3k.....WTF. They are throwing in the stand for free though....how generous.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    Stuartinromford said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    *news*

    https://x.com/dailymail/status/2029072866742764016?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    We can point and laugh at the Daily Mail (it's basically a civic duty), but isn't this end times stuff one of the reasons the American Right is do keen on bombing the Middle East?
    There are no doubt those amongst them who would welcome Mecca being bombed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800
    bondegezou said:

    FPT…

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    bondegezou said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    another_richard said:

    bondegezou said:

    another_richard said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Senior WH official speaking to us in DC says:

    “THEY [IRAN] BASICALLY COULD HAVE BEEN DAYS OR WEEKS AWAY FROM A WEAPON IF THEY WOULD HAVE PUT THE EFFORT INTO IT. AND THEY HAD ALL THE CAPABILITY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT"

    WH says that view aligns with the IAEA boss.

    He just said this 👇

    I have been very clear and consistent in my reports on Iran’s nuclear programme: while there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb, its large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched uranium and refusal to grant my inspectors full access are cause for serious concern. For these reasons, my previous reports indicate that unless and until Iran assists the @IAEAorg in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the Agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful.

    https://x.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/2028927670805750265

    Then it is SHAMEFUL UK are not actively bombing Iran nuclear programme also - as they were just days away from Nuclear Strikes on Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USA?

    What an horrendous error of judgement from Starmer, the US must have shared this intel with his government over and over.

    Kemi needs to lead with this at PMQs. Kemi is proven 100% correct now for her total trust in the US, Israeli and Saudi existential need to take this action, and how she would have backed and joined in from the off, not far too late.
    I think you missed the word could and no evidence. This smacks of WMD and 45 minutes.
    The paragraph is surely saying: yes sir! No one can argue with you they know for sure and can prove Iran weren’t extremely close to having and using the bomb.

    What’s WMD and 45 minutes?
    What’s WMD and 45 minutes? WMD means weapons of mass damage. In 2003 - when I was 6 - was a claim Iraq could hit UK with a dangerous missile in about 45 minutes, which the anti war brigade asked for more evidence, but the person who wrote the document died. There was claims because he changed his mind on it, he had been murdered, so Blair called an enquiry to get to the bottom of it. The bottom line from the enquiry was all those people, basically left wing people like Jeremy Corbyn, who opposed removing Sadam - who my Dad said was really called Madass but changed it to become a Bathurst - were the ones who got proved wrong and liars. The extremely left wing head of BBC was anti war, so government sacked him.

    But this now is completely different. Trump has on his side the leader of IAEA, saying no one can argue with you, as they have zero evidence Iran definitely didn’t have tge bomb and about to use it on you and US allies in an illegal pre medicated strike.
    Bollocks. Zero evidence he didn't have a bomb? What about evidence they did have a bomb?

    What about in the middle of negotiations when Israel attacked?

    Classic tactics of a genocidal regime we already know about. Ask the Gazans
    Surely if Israel was so genocidal there would be no Gazans to ask ?

    Perhaps we need to compare percentages of say Eastern European Jews in the 1940s, Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in the 1910s, Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994 to Israel's actions in Gaza.
    That is one of the stupidest arguments that get trotted out.
    Nobody should be afraid of a few actual numbers.

    And those numbers are rather inconvenient to those claiming that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza.

    Because what do the numbers say ?

    The Rwandan, Armenian and Jewish genocides would be well over 50% deaths, possibly over 80% or even 90%.

    Whereas even with the maximum death claims in Gaza its about 3%.

    Which is bad but less than quite a few wars during the last century.

    Now I'm sure that Israel would eagerly expel all the people from Gaza - which would also be bad but again not something we haven't seen before, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 for example.

    For info my suggestion - not original other PBers have proposed it - would be for Israel to get Gaza but in return would have to give up its settlements in the West Bank.

    But I cannot see either side agreeing to that.
    What about the Bosnian genocide?
    About 3% of the Bosniak population. Tens of thousands dead. But nothing to be bothered about according to Richard.
    It was not 3% in Srebenica, it was about 30% killed with the other 70% forced to flee. It was genuine ethnic cleansing and an attempt to wipe out a population. Not a war triggered by atrocities like Hamas inflicted.
    It was about 3% of the overall population. It was, yes, absolutely ethnic cleansing and genocide.
    Because the genocide was in Srebenica, not everywhere. It was 30% in Srebenica.

    Nothing comparable to Srebenica happened in Gaza, thank goodness. It demeans what happened there to even make the comparison.
    Hold on, Bart. Genocide is defined in international law. It was a concept invented for international law. But you don’t believe international law exists
    That is not the case, I have never said it does not exist, I have always said that like the pirate code it is more guidelines than actual rules - and where possible we should respect the guidelines but we should not be treating them as immutable rules that have to be followed.

    The meaning of the word has always been an attempt to wipe out a population. Twisting it to mean anything else, belittles and devalues the meaning of the word.
    So, if these aren’t immutable rules that have to be followed, that means that genocide is OK sometimes? I mean, I recall you were actively advocating for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza for a while, before thankfully stepping back from that position.
    It is absolutely worth keeping a distinction between genocide and ethnic cleansing. I can not imagine the former ever being acceptable, but for moral rather than legal reasons. The latter might sometimes be, though it is certainly not ideal.

    What I actually said is if there is no other viable route to peace then it might be the least-worst option, and one well-trodden in the past century without outrage including just a couple of years ago (thankfully without much violence) as discussed earlier in this conversation.

    Rounding people up, digging trenches, and shooting them in the back of the head - I can not see any circumstances where that is acceptable. Because of morals.
    Peacefully seeing transfers of people when borders change - that might have a place.
    You are so keen to support peace that you would consider removing a whole population from a region to achieve it. Yet you are so keen for war that every US or Israeli bombing mission is worth it for a minuscule chance that it might lead to a positive change. Some would see you as a man full of contradictions, but I think that would be unfair. There is a common thread here: no sympathy for the civilians affected. If Gazans or Iranians have to suffer for your goals, so be it.
    At the moment, Barty is very hard to distinguish from the neocons who backed the Iraq adventure a couple of decades back.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    edited 8:59AM
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I cannot who will win but there’s got to be a higher chance of a Tory-Labour battle in 2029 than thought now

    Three years out, wheels on the Reform bus look distinctly wobbly. Three years of scrutiny of the Greens agenda should see them fall back significanly.

    I don't see either being over 15% come the next general election. Perhaps somewhat less, especially Reform if Farage has got bored by then. The risk for Labour is that the Greens take their Corbyn-inclined vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,612
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @Morris_Dancer and @Sandpit

    You didn't hear this from me but I am hearing that the insurers have been contacted about postponing/cancelling the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix.

    Also discussions about the Baku, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi, although we'll have much bigger problems if this special military operation is still continuing in December.

    Given the tightness of the calendar, if these races are postponedd, then they won't happen at all.

    Love to know what insurance policy is going to pay out.

    And I suspect come November we will look back at those discussions about the latter races as foresight.

    A final race in Vegas is my expected outcome
    My understanding is the TV contracts with the likes of Sky ensures the final race of the season is scheduled for a time that is the European afternoon, which rules out Vegas as the last race of the season as F1 would have to give huge rebates to Sky etc.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,376
    I wonder whether the US will ever recover from this insane period in their history? It reminded me yesterday of the farting dog who is brought in to deflect from the incontinent grandmother.

    Yesterday it was the turn of Herr Mertz. He didn't know where to put himslf. It was like he was asked to do an impromptu turn at a school pantomime while the world watched. 'Go on Mertzy. pull your trousers down stand on one leg and look like you're having a good time'
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,155
    I bet Sanchez wishes the next Spanish election was this year .

    Trashing Trump and his arse lickers on the right in Spain would likely give him another win .

    Similarly the Danish PM called a snap election which is set for the end of March and where the previous Trump arselickers and anti-EU brigade are likely to lose seats .

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,869
    edited 9:08AM
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    It would be worth Jesus coming back, and the end of the world, just to see the faces on evangelicals when Jesus explains to them they are going to hell for their views but thanks for helping bring him back.
    And that they see he was quite a brown man, possibly with a bit of frizz in his hair.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,656
    Yet, despite it all, Reform are polling well ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. The real danger for the Conservatives is that they come to be seen as a wasted vote for right of centre voters. If Reform poll well ahead of them in May, that perception will grow. People don’t vote for losers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800
    Love the air quotes at 2:40.
    "Your special adviser".

    WELCH: Mr. Yoho is also the husband of your former spokesperson, Tricia McLaughlin?

    NOEM: Yes

    WELCH: So your former assistant and her husband are the ones that got the DHS no bid contract for $143m. Any dispute about that?

    NOEM: No.
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2028902638993944595
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,380
    Theuniondivvie said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    It would be worth Jesus coming back, and the end of the world, just to see the faces on evangelicals when Jesus explains to them they are going to hell for their views but thanks for helping bring him back.
    And that he was quite a brown man, possibly with a bit of frizz in his hair.
    Who wears a dress.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,376
    nico67 said:

    A rare misstep by Carney .

    Who now seems to be rowing back from his previous support . Hard to understand why he gave what seemed total support to begin with .

    Clearly if energy prices rocket and inflation rises it’s hard to avoid blame if you backed the action .

    Hero to zero in one afternoon. The pushback I understand has been huge
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,321
    edited 9:10AM
    nico67 said:

    I bet Sanchez wishes the next Spanish election was this year .

    Trashing Trump and his arse lickers on the right in Spain would likely give him another win .

    Similarly the Danish PM called a snap election which is set for the end of March and where the previous Trump arselickers and anti-EU brigade are likely to lose seats .

    I like the term arselicker. We have a few of those in PB of the trump and Gammon variety
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,869
    Stuartinromford said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    *news*

    https://x.com/dailymail/status/2029072866742764016?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    We can point and laugh at the Daily Mail (it's basically a civic duty), but isn't this end times stuff one of the reasons the American Right is do keen on bombing the Middle East?
    It is, but given the Mail is chief cheerleader for us going in balls deep with Trump & co, I have a sense they're presenting this as a positive.

    Hurrah for the hairshirts, and the rending of flesh and the gnashing of teeth! You will no longer have to worry about the value of your property after the Rapture.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,737
    While I agree with the view that Reform are on the way out as a possible party to lead a government, this leaves the problem of where the votes and seats go. In a normal world, about 40- 50% of votes can be expected to go to 'right of centre' parties. Of these there are exactly two of any relevance, Reform and Con. The declining trajectory of Reform in both polling numbers and zeitgeist has not been accompanied by cheering mobs dancing in the street in support of the Tories, who still look awful and poll terribly.

    It seems to me that while there are few guides to the next government post 2029, there remains a strong probability that it will be cobbled together from the 'left of centre' rather than the 'right of centre'. Maybe that's as far as one can go in guessing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,439
    The Hope Not Hate poll certainly shows that there is an element in Reform that has far right sympathies, over 20% would deport even non white residents with parents born in the UK and over half would take the less hardline but still anti immigrant approach of deporting non white residents with parents born abroad. Of course Reform's official policy is to end indefinite leave to remain for migrants and even those granted it would have to apply for renewable five year visas instead.

    The MiC poll also shows the damage of the divide on the right. While a majority of Labour, LD and Green voters if they could vote tactically against one party would do so against Reform and a majority of Reform voters would tactically vote against Labour, less than half of Tory voters would now tactically vote against Reform and nearly a quarter of Tory voters would even tactically vote against Reform. So while Reform can win rightwing voters it is turning off centrist swing voters, even some of those currently still voting Tory and the type of voters the right has to win to get a majority of seats at a general election
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 950
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    So Trump's alleged affairs with underaged girls on Isle Epstein that need to be distracted from with a random war with a Middle Eastern country, are part of God's plan to bring on the Apocalypse?

    A case of God moving in mysterious ways. I guess.
    Future students of history (assuming there will be any) are going to think this is all stupid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,439
    edited 9:21AM
    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    Vance is Roman Catholic as is Rubio, Hegseth is conservative evangelical though and a member of the The Communion of Reformed Evangelical Churches. Trump was raised Presbyterian though describes himself now as a nondenominational conservative evangelical
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    Sean_F said:

    Yet, despite it all, Reform are polling well ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. The real danger for the Conservatives is that they come to be seen as a wasted vote for right of centre voters. If Reform poll well ahead of them in May, that perception will grow. People don’t vote for losers.

    This Mays results will not look anything like as dominant as last Mays for Reform or anything like as bad for the Tories.
    Reform could 'win' NEV and yet be behind Labour and possibly even the Tories on wards won just because of where the votes are happening this year.
    And, unlike last year, Reform are declining not advancing. The pull to turnout for the great new hope is less and the maindtrea, parties voters know theyll need to if they want to stop reform.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 5,267
    Is it still fair to assume some proportion of the Green vote goes back to Labour or is that vote now locked in?

    Has anyone asked the switchers what they think of the Green policies?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    Sean_F said:

    Yet, despite it all, Reform are polling well ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. The real danger for the Conservatives is that they come to be seen as a wasted vote for right of centre voters. If Reform poll well ahead of them in May, that perception will grow. People don’t vote for losers.

    What if the choice is between four or five different flavour of losers? Just asking.....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,975
    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    More Sanchez: “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East. A war that, in theory, it was said at the time, was being fought to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, bring democracy and ensure global security.

    “But which in reality, seen in perspective, produced the opposite effect, it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

    “The Iraq War generated a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a generalised increase in energy prices.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg7ubdvz6c23

    the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    No, that would be Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Though not surprising that Spain ignores that given that it has done sod all to help Ukraine:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/?srsltid=AfmBOor4egrtOwJxukSagg3qTK4Lj9vOuSWDZjDFGzNCFdVz4BTieKEr
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,474
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    Vance is Roman Catholic as is Rubio, Trump was raised Presbyterian though describes himself now as a nondenominational conservative evangelical

    US military commanders have been invoking extremist Christian rhetoric about biblical “end times” to justify involvement in the Iran war to troops, according to complaints made to a watchdog group. The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members across all branches of the armed forces, including the marines, air force and space force.

    One complainant, identified as a noncommissioned officer (NCO) in a unit that could be deployed “at any moment to join” operations against Iran, told MRFF in a complaint viewed by the Guardian that their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”.

    “He said that ‘President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth’”, the NCO added.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,975
    another_richard said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    More Sanchez: “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East. A war that, in theory, it was said at the time, was being fought to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, bring democracy and ensure global security.

    “But which in reality, seen in perspective, produced the opposite effect, it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

    “The Iraq War generated a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a generalised increase in energy prices.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg7ubdvz6c23

    the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    No, that would be Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Though not surprising that Spain ignores that given that it has done sod all to help Ukraine:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/?srsltid=AfmBOor4egrtOwJxukSagg3qTK4Lj9vOuSWDZjDFGzNCFdVz4BTieKEr
    Given that Spain also refuses to increase defence spending and is about to give residency to up to a million illegal immigrants it is the most pro Putin government in western Europe.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,656
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    Vance is Roman Catholic as is Rubio, Trump was raised Presbyterian though describes himself now as a nondenominational conservative evangelical

    US military commanders have been invoking extremist Christian rhetoric about biblical “end times” to justify involvement in the Iran war to troops, according to complaints made to a watchdog group. The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members across all branches of the armed forces, including the marines, air force and space force.

    One complainant, identified as a noncommissioned officer (NCO) in a unit that could be deployed “at any moment to join” operations against Iran, told MRFF in a complaint viewed by the Guardian that their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”.

    “He said that ‘President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth’”, the NCO added.
    That inspires great confidence.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,863
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    nico67 said:

    I bet Sanchez wishes the next Spanish election was this year .

    Trashing Trump and his arse lickers on the right in Spain would likely give him another win .

    Similarly the Danish PM called a snap election which is set for the end of March and where the previous Trump arselickers and anti-EU brigade are likely to lose seats .

    I like the term arselicker. We have a few of those in PB of the trump and Gammon variety
    The problem with Dutch is that might actually be a word, meaning something like "manifold engineer" or "dynamo field maintenance". "Ik hoog der arseliker den Der Haag, hoch?"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,439
    'The UK government will stop issuing study visas to people from Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan from this month, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has said, as well as stopping skilled work visas to Afghans.'


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2jy74895eo
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,155
    edited 9:26AM
    another_richard said:

    another_richard said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    More Sanchez: “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East. A war that, in theory, it was said at the time, was being fought to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, bring democracy and ensure global security.

    “But which in reality, seen in perspective, produced the opposite effect, it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

    “The Iraq War generated a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a generalised increase in energy prices.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg7ubdvz6c23

    the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    No, that would be Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Though not surprising that Spain ignores that given that it has done sod all to help Ukraine:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/?srsltid=AfmBOor4egrtOwJxukSagg3qTK4Lj9vOuSWDZjDFGzNCFdVz4BTieKEr
    Given that Spain also refuses to increase defence spending and is about to give residency to up to a million illegal immigrants it is the most pro Putin government in western Europe.

    Are you ignoring Hungary , Serbia and Slovakia ? Are they now classed as west ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,612
    We should all take a moment to give our thoughts and prayers to people who are names at Lloyd’s of London.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,863
    Plus I lost another tooth. Dammit!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,737
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Is it still fair to assume some proportion of the Green vote goes back to Labour or is that vote now locked in?

    Has anyone asked the switchers what they think of the Green policies?

    2029 is shaping up to be tactical voting heaven. Currently the losers look like the Tories. If you are pro-Reform you vote Reform, if anti-Reform you don't vote for the only party who might help them govern. The Tories need to sort this in good time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    Rupert Lowes localist party Great Yarmouth First has been registered by the EC (Restore is still pending) so he wil be able to stand candidates in the Norfolk CC elections.
    Might be the difference that prevents a Reform majority. Might win some Yarmouth wards or split the Reform vote handing them to Con.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,975
    nico67 said:

    another_richard said:

    another_richard said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    More Sanchez: “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East. A war that, in theory, it was said at the time, was being fought to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, bring democracy and ensure global security.

    “But which in reality, seen in perspective, produced the opposite effect, it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

    “The Iraq War generated a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a generalised increase in energy prices.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg7ubdvz6c23

    the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    No, that would be Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Though not surprising that Spain ignores that given that it has done sod all to help Ukraine:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/?srsltid=AfmBOor4egrtOwJxukSagg3qTK4Lj9vOuSWDZjDFGzNCFdVz4BTieKEr
    Given that Spain also refuses to increase defence spending and is about to give residency to up to a million illegal immigrants it is the most pro Putin government in western Europe.

    Are you ignoring Hungary , Serbia and Slovakia ?
    Those countries are not in western Europe.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apple new 27-inch monitor, $3.3k.....WTF. They are throwing in the stand for free though....how generous.

    QE has created a layer of ultra rich people who have more money than they can ever spend sensibly. So to them, paying $3.3k for a monitor that can be bought with different branding for $300 is attractive in the way that diamonds and luxury handbags are too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    It would be worth Jesus coming back, and the end of the world, just to see the faces on evangelicals when Jesus explains to them they are going to hell for their views but thanks for helping bring him back.
    If Jesus was as good as they think he is, Nottingham Forest would not be in a relegation battle.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,863
    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    I don’t think Farage wants to be PM, he wants money and immediate attention.

    Like Boris governing would be real work that he doesn’t want to get involved in
    This is a guess, but I think Farage is self-aware enough to know that he'd hate being PM. Everyone who tries the job fails in the end, and the mob he has spent decades whipping up would quickly turn on him.

    Boris really thought he could really do the job, and probably still does.

    Farage's problem know is the Springtime for Hitler one; a palpable hit that isn't meant to be one. If I were Nigel, I'd find a tame medic to sign me off on a long rest cure at the Goldeneye Estate.
    The "Goldeneye estate" reference in this context refers to Anthony Eden buggering off to Jamaica during the Suez crisis. It was in an episode of "The Crown".
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    wooliedyed said:

    Rupert Lowes localist party Great Yarmouth First has been registered by the EC (Restore is still pending) so he wil be able to stand candidates in the Norfolk CC elections.
    Might be the difference that prevents a Reform majority. Might win some Yarmouth wards or split the Reform vote handing them to Con.

    Are you going to put your money where yar mouth is then?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,439
    another_richard said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    More Sanchez: “23 years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East. A war that, in theory, it was said at the time, was being fought to eliminate Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, bring democracy and ensure global security.

    “But which in reality, seen in perspective, produced the opposite effect, it unleashed the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

    “The Iraq War generated a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a serious migration crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and a generalised increase in energy prices.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/chadbourn.bsky.social/post/3mg7ubdvz6c23

    the greatest wave of insecurity that our continent has suffered since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    No, that would be Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

    Though not surprising that Spain ignores that given that it has done sod all to help Ukraine:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303450/bilateral-aid-to-ukraine-in-a-percent-of-donor-gdp/?srsltid=AfmBOor4egrtOwJxukSagg3qTK4Lj9vOuSWDZjDFGzNCFdVz4BTieKEr
    Yes utter rubbish from Sanchez, Iraq is still Saddam free and Syria is now Assad free and IS in the end also failed to take control of either nation.

    In Iran Ayatollah Khameinei is dead and Spain's support for Zelensky is pathetic, lower than the UK, France, Germany, Poland and even Canada.
    https://www.kielinstitut.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

    Spain also spends less on defence as a percentage of its gdp than any other nation and well below the 2% Nato target
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/whos-at-2-percent-look-how-nato-allies-have-increased-their-defense-spending-since-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,998
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We should all take a moment to give our thoughts and prayers to people who are names at Lloyd’s of London.

    Trump is coming for their business

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/2028917943916966241
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,183
    edited 9:36AM
    noneoftheabove said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apple new 27-inch monitor, $3.3k.....WTF. They are throwing in the stand for free though....how generous.

    QE has created a layer of ultra rich people who have more money than they can ever spend sensibly. So to them, paying $3.3k for a monitor that can be bought with different branding for $300 is attractive in the way that diamonds and luxury handbags are too.
    It's market segmentation - if you need a calibrated monitor (film production, medical imaging etc etc) then you're prepared to pay a significant premium. So you upsell to those customers.

    (Plus you get to sell to be the "must have the best one" customers, as you say.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,439
    edited 9:32AM
    algarkirk said:



    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Is it still fair to assume some proportion of the Green vote goes back to Labour or is that vote now locked in?

    Has anyone asked the switchers what they think of the Green policies?

    2029 is shaping up to be tactical voting heaven. Currently the losers look like the Tories. If you are pro-Reform you vote Reform, if anti-Reform you don't vote for the only party who might help them govern. The Tories need to sort this in good time.
    Wrong, in the 121 seats with Tory MPs in almost all of them if you don't vote Tory you get a Reform MP. Though admittedly a Cleverly led Tory party would likely get more Labour and LD tactical votes to beat Reform than the current Kemi led Tories will

  • eekeek Posts: 32,717
    glw said:

    nico67 said:

    A rare misstep by Carney .

    Who now seems to be rowing back from his previous support . Hard to understand why he gave what seemed total support to begin with .

    Clearly if energy prices rocket and inflation rises it’s hard to avoid blame if you backed the action .

    He probably assumed that there was a plan, it being customary. It would never occur to someone like Carney that a country might go to war "just because".
    Anyone who had observed Trump and Netanyahu should know that long term plans are not their strong points
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    edited 9:33AM
    noneoftheabove said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Rupert Lowes localist party Great Yarmouth First has been registered by the EC (Restore is still pending) so he wil be able to stand candidates in the Norfolk CC elections.
    Might be the difference that prevents a Reform majority. Might win some Yarmouth wards or split the Reform vote handing them to Con.

    Are you going to put your money where yar mouth is then?
    In what sense? If people want to bet on the outcome of the Norfolk election they can do their own research and find some odds. I only bet pennies and usually on individual seats that interest me
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,975
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    Vance is Roman Catholic as is Rubio, Trump was raised Presbyterian though describes himself now as a nondenominational conservative evangelical

    US military commanders have been invoking extremist Christian rhetoric about biblical “end times” to justify involvement in the Iran war to troops, according to complaints made to a watchdog group. The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members across all branches of the armed forces, including the marines, air force and space force.

    One complainant, identified as a noncommissioned officer (NCO) in a unit that could be deployed “at any moment to join” operations against Iran, told MRFF in a complaint viewed by the Guardian that their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”.

    “He said that ‘President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth’”, the NCO added.
    That inspires great confidence.
    Religious obsession has been part of the country since the founding of the first colonies.

    Given the following 400 years memes of chosen, people, promised lands and smiting amalekites come easily.

    And encourages association with another country big on chosen people, promised land and smiting amalekites.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,376
    Someone thinks the US will lose this war with Iran. Not particularly revelatory in itself but watched by 3.5 million which suggests a lot of Americans are rooting for this result. I also like the presenter Crystal Ball.

    (And as Tommy Docherty once said when asked if United could win the double. "To answer that I'd need crystal balls')

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ql24Z8SIeE
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,440
    Unpopular said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    So Trump's alleged affairs with underaged girls on Isle Epstein that need to be distracted from with a random war with a Middle Eastern country, are part of God's plan to bring on the Apocalypse?

    A case of God moving in mysterious ways. I guess.
    Future students of history (assuming there will be any) are going to think this is all stupid.
    Present students of history already think this is all stupid.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,423
    A good conversation to listen to to understand something of the thinking of Trump supporters in the USA:

    (Nat Con Squad - With Amber Duke, Ben Weingarten, Inez Stepman, and Will Chamberlain.)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll7QZnirPqg
  • eekeek Posts: 32,717
    edited 9:36AM
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apple new 27-inch monitor, $3.3k.....WTF. They are throwing in the stand for free though....how generous.

    The remarkable thing is that other prices haven’t changed once to factor in the spec upgrades up (air now has minimum 512gb storage, pro has 1tb, max has 2tb).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,439
    wooliedyed said:

    Sean_F said:

    Yet, despite it all, Reform are polling well ahead of the Conservatives and Labour. The real danger for the Conservatives is that they come to be seen as a wasted vote for right of centre voters. If Reform poll well ahead of them in May, that perception will grow. People don’t vote for losers.

    This Mays results will not look anything like as dominant as last Mays for Reform or anything like as bad for the Tories.
    Reform could 'win' NEV and yet be behind Labour and possibly even the Tories on wards won just because of where the votes are happening this year.
    And, unlike last year, Reform are declining not advancing. The pull to turnout for the great new hope is less and the maindtrea, parties voters know theyll need to if they want to stop reform.
    Not really showing on the new Britain Votes Now local elections projection for May which has Reform winning 1069 council wards in May, Labour 696, the LDs 488, the Tories 394 and the Greens 180 and Independents 124
    https://britain.votes.now/local-elections/may-26
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,794
    Roger said:

    Someone thinks the US will lose this war with Iran. Not particularly revelatory in itself but watched by 3.5 million which suggests a lot of Americans are rooting for this result. I also like the presenter Crystal Ball.

    (And as Tommy Docherty once said when asked if United could win the double. "To answer that I'd need crystal balls')

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ql24Z8SIeE

    An independent commentator on LBC called Penny Mordant was very scathing of Starmer's failure to fully support the US and Israel and not put assets in the Gulf in anticipation of Bibi's widely anticipated war. She says he is pandering to his back benchers rather than considering the needs of the nation.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    wooliedyed said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Rupert Lowes localist party Great Yarmouth First has been registered by the EC (Restore is still pending) so he wil be able to stand candidates in the Norfolk CC elections.
    Might be the difference that prevents a Reform majority. Might win some Yarmouth wards or split the Reform vote handing them to Con.

    Are you going to put your money where yar mouth is then?
    In what sense? If people want to bet on the outcome of the Norfolk election they can do their own research and find some odds. I only bet pennies and usually on individual seats that interest me
    Apologies, wasn't meant to be taken literally, if Yarmouth gets a mention and I can squeeze yar mouth in I find it too tempting....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,835
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    Vance is Roman Catholic as is Rubio, Trump was raised Presbyterian though describes himself now as a nondenominational conservative evangelical

    US military commanders have been invoking extremist Christian rhetoric about biblical “end times” to justify involvement in the Iran war to troops, according to complaints made to a watchdog group. The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members across all branches of the armed forces, including the marines, air force and space force.

    One complainant, identified as a noncommissioned officer (NCO) in a unit that could be deployed “at any moment to join” operations against Iran, told MRFF in a complaint viewed by the Guardian that their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”.

    “He said that ‘President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth’”, the NCO added.
    That inspires great confidence.
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    Vance is Roman Catholic as is Rubio, Trump was raised Presbyterian though describes himself now as a nondenominational conservative evangelical

    US military commanders have been invoking extremist Christian rhetoric about biblical “end times” to justify involvement in the Iran war to troops, according to complaints made to a watchdog group. The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members across all branches of the armed forces, including the marines, air force and space force.

    One complainant, identified as a noncommissioned officer (NCO) in a unit that could be deployed “at any moment to join” operations against Iran, told MRFF in a complaint viewed by the Guardian that their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”.

    “He said that ‘President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth’”, the NCO added.
    That inspires great confidence.
    To be fair Jesus himself picked one wrong 'un to be a disciple.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,131
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I cannot who will win but there’s got to be a higher chance of a Tory-Labour battle in 2029 than thought now

    Never forget the Liberal-SDP Alliance polling in the early 80's. "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,439
    another_richard said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    It does look like US Evangelicals do have a war plan.

    It is to speed up the Apocalypse and bring on the return of Jesus.

    https://jonathanlarsen.substack.com/p/us-troops-were-told-iran-war-is-for?r=fx870&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

    It is not just Iran that is being run by religious fanatics with a cult of martyrdom.

    Vance is Roman Catholic as is Rubio, Trump was raised Presbyterian though describes himself now as a nondenominational conservative evangelical

    US military commanders have been invoking extremist Christian rhetoric about biblical “end times” to justify involvement in the Iran war to troops, according to complaints made to a watchdog group. The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members across all branches of the armed forces, including the marines, air force and space force.

    One complainant, identified as a noncommissioned officer (NCO) in a unit that could be deployed “at any moment to join” operations against Iran, told MRFF in a complaint viewed by the Guardian that their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”.

    “He said that ‘President Trump has been anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth’”, the NCO added.
    That inspires great confidence.
    Religious obsession has been part of the country since the founding of the first colonies.

    Given the following 400 years memes of chosen, people, promised lands and smiting amalekites come easily.

    And encourages association with another country big on chosen people, promised land and smiting amalekites.
    Yes, of course the USA was founded in terms of white settlement by low church Protestant Puritans fleeing restrictions on their practices by Stuart supported High Church Anglican Bishops in the 17th and 18th centuries (and many were also big Cromwell supporters in and after the English Civil War)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,591
    edited 9:43AM
    eek said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apple new 27-inch monitor, $3.3k.....WTF. They are throwing in the stand for free though....how generous.

    The remarkable thing is that other prices haven’t changed once to factor in the spec upgrades up (air now has minimum 512gb storage, pro has 1tb, max has 2tb).
    The 17e looks like a great mid-range phone. I was about to get the 17 but difficult to justify the extra £200 when this has magsafe and 256gb.
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