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This bodes ill for Reform – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,341
    Starmer hijacked Kemi's question to talk about evacuation.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,661
    Brixian59 said:

    Jesus Christ she is all over the place, wants defence spending increased today..

    Starmers getting it happening anyway by using g 2m missile to shoot down a 26k drone.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,087
    This is Kemi meltdown

    She thinks a frigate can get from Portsmouth to the Gulf in 48 hours.

    Shambolic.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,321
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Krishna, a former management consultant, was appointed the PFEW’s first chief executive in 2024 and is reported to be paid more than £320,000 a year.

    £320k a year and still allegedly on the take.

    How is the police union leader paid double a Chief Constable (or Prime Minister) salary?
    Because the PM's salary is ludicrously low, in the main. Yes there are other benefits (pension for life after, free board etc in Downing Street and the use of Chequers) but the salary is tiny c.f. to what I think it should be.
    Oh I agree that the PM salary is too low, but it is what it is.

    MP salary and ministerial salaries should probably be double what they are. Coincidentally, that would be a great way of quickly fixing the ludicrous £100k tax trap, if MPs themselves got caught in the middle of it!
    I have to agree. If Trump can be paid 400000 and also be allowed to screw the US public for millions Starmer should be able to be paid at least 250000.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,423

    A defection the size of Wales

    https://x.com/GuidoFawkes/status/2029136822102630409

    REFORM: Sir Robin Wales, Labour mayor of Newham from 2002 to 2018, will become Reform's London director of local government.

    Wales' close aide Clive Furness will be Reform's mayoral candidate in Newham.

    I think that is genuinely the most interesting defection I have seen.

    Does Robin Wales have any clout or relevance these days?

    I see he is currently with Policy Exchange.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,678

    Brixian59 said:

    Jesus Christ she is all over the place, wants defence spending increased today..

    Starmers getting it happening anyway by using g 2m missile to shoot down a 26k drone.
    That's 50 drones shot down for the price of one bat tunnel...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,612

    Shocked.

    Head of Police Federation of England and Wales arrested on suspicion of corruption

    Mukund Krishna arrested by City of London police along with two other national board members


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/police-federation-of-england-and-wales-chief-executive-mukund-krishna-arrested?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Reminder that we still have the ridiculous City of London police. Why?
    Tell me you don’t understand how financial crimes are investigated without telling me you don’t understand financial crimes are investigated.
    Do we really need an entirely separate police force for that?

    It reinforces the idea that the City of London is something apart from the rest of Britain.
    Yes, financial crime at scale is beyond most police forces.
    Then have a national agency.
    My day job involves regular contact with the City of London police and others such as OFSI, the current system works great.

    Creating an agency would impact others and make things needlessly complicated.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814

    How hard would it be for an adversary to send helicopters in and abduct the British PM?

    Preparing for a Refukker govt already?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,341
    Number 10 needs to give Starmer a short list of Tory defence cuts, rather than let him ramble on.
  • Badenoch is surely going to regret following Trump into this war.

    Starmer now becomes the anti-war PM by implication - and I can't think that a bad place for Labour to be.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,678

    How hard would it be for an adversary to send helicopters in and abduct the British PM?

    Preparing for a Refukker govt already?
    I was musing that it might be the easiest way for Labour MPs to replace Starmer.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,341
    Did Kemi just call Labour a sea of awks and goons? What did she say and what does it mean?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,423
    edited 12:22PM
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Krishna, a former management consultant, was appointed the PFEW’s first chief executive in 2024 and is reported to be paid more than £320,000 a year.

    £320k a year and still allegedly on the take.

    How is the police union leader paid double a Chief Constable (or Prime Minister) salary?
    Because the PM's salary is ludicrously low, in the main. Yes there are other benefits (pension for life after, free board etc in Downing Street and the use of Chequers) but the salary is tiny c.f. to what I think it should be.
    Oh I agree that the PM salary is too low, but it is what it is.

    MP salary and ministerial salaries should probably be double what they are. Coincidentally, that would be a great way of quickly fixing the ludicrous £100k tax trap, if MPs themselves got caught in the middle of it!
    I don't think so.

    A top 3-2% basic salary, paid accommodation in London, and travel, a top pension scheme, and a lot of perks, are more than adequate.

    If people need money to motivate them into Parliament, those are exactly the types we do not want. Maybe in an appointed Lords, or as witnesses to testify etc, but definitely not in the Commons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800

    Badenoch is surely going to regret following Trump into this war.

    Starmer now becomes the anti-war PM by implication - and I can't think that a bad place for Labour to be.

    There's an outside chance that it's all over in a month, and Iran becomes a liberal democracy within a couple of years.
    But I'd want odds several orders of magnitude better than evens.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800

    Did Kemi just call Labour a sea of awks and goons? What did she say and what does it mean?

    Seabirds and 1950s comedians.

    If that's a metaphor it's all at sea.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,998
    Nigelb said:

    Badenoch is surely going to regret following Trump into this war.

    Starmer now becomes the anti-war PM by implication - and I can't think that a bad place for Labour to be.

    There's an outside chance that it's all over in a month, and Iran becomes a liberal democracy within a couple of years.
    But I'd want odds several orders of magnitude better than evens.
    Betting against Trump is usually inadvisable.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,678

    Badenoch is surely going to regret following Trump into this war.

    Starmer now becomes the anti-war PM by implication - and I can't think that a bad place for Labour to be.

    No-one remembers that IDS supported Bush on Iraq, and accused Blair of being lukewarm in his support.

    If the war goes on long enough to be consequential the government are going to get the blame for the inflation that follows. No-one will care that Badenoch supported the war that created the inflation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,612
    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814

    Nigelb said:

    Badenoch is surely going to regret following Trump into this war.

    Starmer now becomes the anti-war PM by implication - and I can't think that a bad place for Labour to be.

    There's an outside chance that it's all over in a month, and Iran becomes a liberal democracy within a couple of years.
    But I'd want odds several orders of magnitude better than evens.
    Betting against Trump is usually inadvisable.
    O'Sullivan usually beats him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800
    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,863

    ...Perhaps we have finally to accept the fact that Sir Keir has principles of granite yet an unrivalled sense of the nuances and complexities of a turbulent age.

    He is famed for the immeasurable depth of his convictions. :)

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Nothing about this has crossed Keirs desk at any time nor will it, ever
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    edited 12:30PM
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Krishna, a former management consultant, was appointed the PFEW’s first chief executive in 2024 and is reported to be paid more than £320,000 a year.

    £320k a year and still allegedly on the take.

    How is the police union leader paid double a Chief Constable (or Prime Minister) salary?
    Because the PM's salary is ludicrously low, in the main. Yes there are other benefits (pension for life after, free board etc in Downing Street and the use of Chequers) but the salary is tiny c.f. to what I think it should be.
    Oh I agree that the PM salary is too low, but it is what it is.

    MP salary and ministerial salaries should probably be double what they are. Coincidentally, that would be a great way of quickly fixing the ludicrous £100k tax trap, if MPs themselves got caught in the middle of it!
    I don't think so.

    A top 3-2% basic salary, paid accommodation in London, and travel, a top pension scheme, and a lot of perks, are more than adequate.

    If people need money to motivate them into Parliament, those are exactly the types we do not want. Maybe in an appointed Lords, or as witnesses to testify etc, but definitely not in the Commons.
    If you become PM you become a millionaire pretty much automatically, and it is harder to avoid getting to the £10m plus level than it is to reach it. So one of those tiny violins from me on that.

    I'd have more sympathy for ministerial pay. How about this, for each extra year you survive in your cabinet post, you get an extra 25% added to your salary. Stop the merry-go-round of departments and encourage a bit more long term thinking.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,787
    boulay said:

    stodge said:

    My initial response listening to Trump yesterday was "you're no Roosevelt, no Truman or no Eisenhower yourself".

    Has anyone pointed out to him that the US notoriously didn’t exactly step up until late in the two world wars? Or that the two wars where we stepped up with them that they started, Iraq and Afghanistan, were disastrous in blood, money, reputation and for which Trump couldn’t even acknowledge graciously.

    Basically everything he says is a load of crap, unfortunately he also has the world’s most powerful military under his control.
    To be fair, the US is looking to make up for being late entrants in the last 2 world wars by being right at the front of the queue for the next one.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,025
    " Around 9:30 AM local, suspicious objects (two Iranian-made Shahed drones) detected near Lebanese airspace, heading toward Cyprus. Two Greek F-16s scrambled from Paphos base, intercepted them ~120 nautical miles off Larnaca coast. Alert lifted by 10 AM."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,495
    Spanish PM Sánchez responds to Trump:

    "Spain is against this disaster..."

    https://bsky.app/profile/adamjschwarz.bsky.social/post/3mga6bxhtck2z
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,199
    I have no doubt the pressure to increase defence spending immediately will become a very salient issue

    Reeves cannot ignore the demands as keeping us safe is the government's number one priority
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.

    3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Well labour is supposedly investigating foreign influence in our politics with the report due out before the locals and it’s not at all a simple ruse to attack Reform. Oh no

    I’m sure not only will Mandelson be in it after the Epstein files but this too. Oh yes !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    From the addresses, it looks like Reform isn't the only spying game in Wales...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,451
    edited 12:36PM
    "@PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 29% (+1)
    🌳 CON: 19% (-1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-4)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)
    🟢 GRN: 14% (+3)

    From @Moreincommon_

    From 27th February - 2nd March
    Changes with 23rd February

    Highest Green Party share with pollster."

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2029108413423128586
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,423

    Brixian59 said:

    Jesus Christ she is all over the place, wants defence spending increased today..

    Starmers getting it happening anyway by using g 2m missile to shoot down a 26k drone.
    That's 50 drones shot down for the price of one bat tunnel...
    They need some of the systems we cobbled together for Ukraine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,249
    edited 12:42PM

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,451
    edited 12:41PM
    Most of the polls and the polling average shows that the two most popular parties in Britain today are Reform and Conservatives.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
    That trip to China looks really good now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,199

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
    Dan Jarvis making a statement in the house on this subject
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,030
    Not the most important thing but Badenoch's face showed Starmer hit home when he said moments like this define a leader of the opposition - they can step up or show their irrelevance - and she's chosen the second.

    I almost feel sorry for her. Being owned by the least popular prime minister in recent memory with the possible exception of Liz Truss...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,657
    Andy_JS said:

    "@PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 29% (+1)
    🌳 CON: 19% (-1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-4)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)
    🟢 GRN: 14% (+3)

    From @Moreincommon_

    From 27th February - 2nd March
    Changes with 23rd February

    Highest Green Party share with pollster."

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2029108413423128586

    Reform majority of 98 on those numbers.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,863
    Andy_JS said:

    Most of the polls and the polling average shows that the two most popular parties in Britain today are Reform and Conservatives.

    Tallest dwarf
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,776
    It's all very well Badenoch whining about the terrible hollowed-out armed forces we can't deploy. But who hollowed them out? Thats right, her government did.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    Andy_JS said:

    Most of the polls and the polling average shows that the two most popular parties in Britain today are Reform and Conservatives.

    Looks likely to me to be Ref-Con-Lab/LD-Grn in NEV in May
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,341

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
    Dan Jarvis making a statement in the house on this subject
    His lips are moving but the gist is they aren't saying anything.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    What the Texas primaries do show is that the Republicans are going to need to spend a shedload of unexpected cash shoring up their vote there.

    And it may all still be for naught. The young telegenic and sage Baptist guy is going to be a nightmare to fight.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,436
    edited 12:51PM

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
    Dan Jarvis making a statement in the house on this subject
    His lips are moving but the gist is they aren't saying anything.
    Given the sexes of the accused and the ages given you could probably have a good go at rounding the sitting MP down to a couple of dozen MPs quite easily. And then have a good look at who's not in the House today.
  • It's all very well Badenoch whining about the terrible hollowed-out armed forces we can't deploy. But who hollowed them out? Thats right, her government did.

    They're all guilty when it comes to defence. The decisions to drop the Type 45 buy from 12 hulls to 8 and then 6 - which was ill-advised at the time, and now looks monstrously stupid - were done under Labour.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,249
    edited 12:55PM
    Foss said:

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
    Dan Jarvis making a statement in the house on this subject
    His lips are moving but the gist is they aren't saying anything.
    Given the sexes of the accused and the ages given you could probably have a good go at rounding the sitting MP down to a couple of dozen MPs quite easily. And then have a good look at who's not in the House today.
    Not sure was the wisest statement by the plod, 3 men, ages, one is partner (not husband) of a sitting MP....the game of "Guess Who" turns over most of the tiles straight away.

    It actually rules out the MP I would have bet on.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    Andy_JS said:

    Most of the polls and the polling average shows that the two most popular parties in Britain today are Reform and Conservatives.

    The median voter of the country has always been on the right so not a big surprise with Labour in power and fragmented politics.

    I still think this ends with a Conservative PM and possibly a majority too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,331

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.

    3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
    Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!

    As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 11,025
    edited 12:56PM
    Are specialist ships, as there's been a clamour for Starmer to send, actually as useful in shooting down drones as aircraft ?

    The Greeks seem to have already shot down another couple of drones from the air about 140 miles from Cyprus this morning, as reported below, and the UK already has aircraft in Cyprus too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.

    3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
    Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!

    As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
    Don't know the ins and outs but completely bonkers a Republican candidate can impose voting rules on the Democratic primary instead of having to recuse himself.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,423
    edited 1:02PM

    Are specialist ships, as there's been a clanour for Starmer to send, actually as useful in shooting down drones as aircraft ?

    The Greeks seem to have already shot down another couple of drones from the air about 140 miles way from. Cyprus, this morning, as reported below, and the UK already has aircraft in Cyprus too.

    Won't this be about virility and Starmer bashing?

    "Ohno ... we needed the GREEKS to send a FRENCH frigate" !!!

    "Why could we not send SIX of our OWN?"

    More seriously, surely the ships would be about interceptions long before they reach Cyprus, because the Cypriot Govt is jumping up and down, and we do not want any hitting Cyprus?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,249
    edited 12:58PM
    Lord Frost is stepping down as Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs. He took on the role just two months ago.

    Youngsters today got not stickability.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,436

    Foss said:

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
    Dan Jarvis making a statement in the house on this subject
    His lips are moving but the gist is they aren't saying anything.
    Given the sexes of the accused and the ages given you could probably have a good go at rounding the sitting MP down to a couple of dozen MPs quite easily. And then have a good look at who's not in the House today.
    Not sure was the wisest statement by the plod, 3 men, ages, one is partner (not husband) of a sitting MP....the game of "Guess Who" turns over most of the tiles straight away.

    It actually rules out the MP I would have bet on.
    Actually 'partner' is the term in that I'd treat as the weakest - there are places/people who use that as a catch all for those who are married/civil partnership/have a long term cohabitee.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,002

    Andy_JS said:

    Most of the polls and the polling average shows that the two most popular parties in Britain today are Reform and Conservatives.

    The median voter of the country has always been on the right so not a big surprise with Labour in power and fragmented politics.

    I still think this ends with a Conservative PM and possibly a majority too.
    While I'd prefer a Con PM to a Lab, Ref or Grn one, I fear a Con majority with less than a third of the popular vote will be just as unhappy an experience as a Lab one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,622

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    Not quite worked yet, so he may need to really step it up. Weekly visits to Mar-a-lago?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 5,140
    edited 1:04PM

    Andy_JS said:

    Most of the polls and the polling average shows that the two most popular parties in Britain today are Reform and Conservatives.

    The median voter of the country has always been on the right so not a big surprise with Labour in power and fragmented politics.

    I still think this ends with a Conservative PM and possibly a majority too.
    Looking at

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    the total for Con + Ref almost exactly equals that of Lab + Lib + Grn at 46.5%.

    And then there's the nats, who generally swing to the left.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814
    edited 1:03PM
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Most of the polls and the polling average shows that the two most popular parties in Britain today are Reform and Conservatives.

    The median voter of the country has always been on the right so not a big surprise with Labour in power and fragmented politics.

    I still think this ends with a Conservative PM and possibly a majority too.
    While I'd prefer a Con PM to a Lab, Ref or Grn one, I fear a Con majority with less than a third of the popular vote will be just as unhappy an experience as a Lab one.
    Oh, no doubt about it, and a Reform one even worse. Coalitions may be slightly better as compromise is more expected, but ultimately we have bad demographics, a crazy international and economic environment and a lack of seriousness in addressing our issues, so we get unhappy politics.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,814

    Lord Frost is stepping down as Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs. He took on the role just two months ago.

    Youngsters today got not stickability.

    Was clearly just an appointment for the winter, can't expect him to hang around with the temperature in the mid teens. That is just science.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,622
    edited 1:05PM
    Nigelb said:

    https://x.com/itvnewspolitics/status/2029149797492433188

    'To say he's no Churchill is quite an understatement'

    Farage says he's 'not surprised' Trump has criticised Starmer over Iran

    'There are times to say no the Americans, absolutely', the Reform UK leader admitted

    A massive misstep. Reform need to stop allying themselves with Trump when it’s the number one concern voters have about Reform.

    Considering that Donald Trump currently has an approval rating of -70% in the UK, this is hardly an electoral problem for Keir Starmer. Things that have polled with a higher approval rating than Trump in the UK include:

    * Brussels sprouts
    * The British weather
    * Marmite
    * Airport queues
    * Potholes
    * Seagulls
    * Estate agents
    * Parking fines

    https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/2028862750714175587

    It is extraordinary, though not really surprising, that these British independence fetishists, who banged on about our sovereignty for years, are so desperate to abase themselves and have Britain pander to every whim of the most unpopular and corrupt US president in living memory.

    Starmer might be a lacklustre PM, but Farage is utterly contemptible.
    It's not hard to criticise the gov without sucking up to Trump, but sections of the online right have insisted on it and it really undermines the others. Same issue with Canada and some very anti Trump Conservatives pissed off with the american cosplayers.

    You can usually tell which is which by whether they constantly find past anti Trump comments from others and act as though him winning reelection makes those comments outageous now.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    edited 1:05PM

    Lord Frost is stepping down as Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs. He took on the role just two months ago.

    Youngsters today got not stickability.

    Its so he can defect to Reform
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 29% (+1)
    🌳 CON: 19% (-1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-4)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)
    🟢 GRN: 14% (+3)

    From @Moreincommon_

    From 27th February - 2nd March
    Changes with 23rd February

    Highest Green Party share with pollster."

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2029108413423128586

    Reform majority of 98 on those numbers.
    Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Starmer is rather an unlucky general, he is probably patting himself on the back for finding a legal fudge line for Iran issue and then....
    How can he blame Reform ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,249
    edited 1:07PM
    The wannabe 80s action hero movie star is up again giving it the big'un in Washington.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,537
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.

    3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
    Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!

    As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.

    3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
    Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!

    As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
    Talarico is actually quite radical.
    Albeit using the language of the Sermon on the Mount rather than Socialism.

    PS. Amused to see Megachurch pastors alarmed by some of their younger congregants asking Talarico inspired "Satanic" questions about inequality.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,998

    The wannabe 80s action hero movie star is up again giving it the big'un in Washington.

    “We are punching them while they’re down and that’s exactly how it should be.”
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163
    Labour party, clearly compromised, with a landslide majority

    oh dear
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,869
    Some mildly good news for Anas.
    Otoh it’s going to be a terrrrible night for the SCons.

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2029178918058475556?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,657

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 29% (+1)
    🌳 CON: 19% (-1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-4)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)
    🟢 GRN: 14% (+3)

    From @Moreincommon_

    From 27th February - 2nd March
    Changes with 23rd February

    Highest Green Party share with pollster."

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2029108413423128586

    Reform majority of 98 on those numbers.
    Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
    Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,249
    Hegseth definitely watches Top Gun every night....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,199
    edited 1:15PM
    US

    An Iranian Navy ship was torpedoed of Sri Lanka by US submarine
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 29% (+1)
    🌳 CON: 19% (-1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-4)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)
    🟢 GRN: 14% (+3)

    From @Moreincommon_

    From 27th February - 2nd March
    Changes with 23rd February

    Highest Green Party share with pollster."

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2029108413423128586

    Reform majority of 98 on those numbers.
    Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
    Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
    South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,657

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 29% (+1)
    🌳 CON: 19% (-1)
    🌹 LAB: 18% (-4)
    🔶 LDEM: 14% (=)
    🟢 GRN: 14% (+3)

    From @Moreincommon_

    From 27th February - 2nd March
    Changes with 23rd February

    Highest Green Party share with pollster."

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2029108413423128586

    Reform majority of 98 on those numbers.
    Not a cat in hell's chance of Reform winning that many seats. Not when it is Reform v The Rest of the World on giving them a good kicking.
    Would you vote Green to stop Reform from winning in your area (South Devon, right? Feels like the sort of place the Greens could be the challenger to Reform).
    South Devon could well be a four-way fight: Reform, Tories, Green and the underwhelming sitting LibDem MP.
    Lol, the Tories won't be winning that seat.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,311
    It's going to be interesting to see if MPs finally address the marginal £100k tax band now that they're approaching it and will likely breach it next year. Interesting that the OBR came out and said that high taxes are now depressing work. There's probably a few tax rates that could be cut which will result in more overall tax take.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800
    .

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.

    3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
    No chance with that margin, I think.
    Though she has absolutely legitimate grounds to cry foul about the conduct of the election.

    A warning of what Trump's MAGA crew will try in November.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163

    Some mildly good news for Anas.
    Otoh it’s going to be a terrrrible night for the SCons.

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2029178918058475556?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,824
    Nigelb said:

    FPT…

    Senior WH official speaking to us in DC says:

    “THEY [IRAN] BASICALLY COULD HAVE BEEN DAYS OR WEEKS AWAY FROM A WEAPON IF THEY WOULD HAVE PUT THE EFFORT INTO IT. AND THEY HAD ALL THE CAPABILITY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT"

    WH says that view aligns with the IAEA boss.

    He just said this 👇

    I have been very clear and consistent in my reports on Iran’s nuclear programme: while there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb, its large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched uranium and refusal to grant my inspectors full access are cause for serious concern. For these reasons, my previous reports indicate that unless and until Iran assists the @IAEAorg in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the Agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful.

    https://x.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/2028927670805750265

    Then it is SHAMEFUL UK are not actively bombing Iran nuclear programme also - as they were just days away from Nuclear Strikes on Israel, Saudi Arabia and the USA?

    What an horrendous error of judgement from Starmer, the US must have shared this intel with his government over and over.

    Kemi needs to lead with this at PMQs. Kemi is proven 100% correct now for her total trust in the US, Israeli and Saudi existential need to take this action, and how she would have backed and joined in from the off, not far too late.
    I think you missed the word could and no evidence. This smacks of WMD and 45 minutes.
    The paragraph is surely saying: yes sir! No one can argue with you they know for sure and can prove Iran weren’t extremely close to having and using the bomb.

    What’s WMD and 45 minutes?
    What’s WMD and 45 minutes? WMD means weapons of mass damage. In 2003 - when I was 6 - was a claim Iraq could hit UK with a dangerous missile in about 45 minutes, which the anti war brigade asked for more evidence, but the person who wrote the document died. There was claims because he changed his mind on it, he had been murdered, so Blair called an enquiry to get to the bottom of it. The bottom line from the enquiry was all those people, basically left wing people like Jeremy Corbyn, who opposed removing Sadam - who my Dad said was really called Madass but changed it to become a Bathurst - were the ones who got proved wrong and liars. The extremely left wing head of BBC was anti war, so government sacked him.

    But this now is completely different. Trump has on his side the leader of IAEA, saying no one can argue with you, as they have zero evidence Iran definitely didn’t have tge bomb and about to use it on you and US allies in an illegal pre medicated strike.
    Bollocks. Zero evidence he didn't have a bomb? What about evidence they did have a bomb?

    What about in the middle of negotiations when Israel attacked?

    Classic tactics of a genocidal regime we already know about. Ask the Gazans
    Surely if Israel was so genocidal there would be no Gazans to ask ?

    Perhaps we need to compare percentages of say Eastern European Jews in the 1940s, Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in the 1910s, Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994 to Israel's actions in Gaza.
    That is one of the stupidest arguments that get trotted out.
    Nobody should be afraid of a few actual numbers.

    And those numbers are rather inconvenient to those claiming that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza.

    Because what do the numbers say ?

    The Rwandan, Armenian and Jewish genocides would be well over 50% deaths, possibly over 80% or even 90%.

    Whereas even with the maximum death claims in Gaza its about 3%.

    Which is bad but less than quite a few wars during the last century.

    Now I'm sure that Israel would eagerly expel all the people from Gaza - which would also be bad but again not something we haven't seen before, Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 for example.

    For info my suggestion - not original other PBers have proposed it - would be for Israel to get Gaza but in return would have to give up its settlements in the West Bank.

    But I cannot see either side agreeing to that.
    What about the Bosnian genocide?
    About 3% of the Bosniak population. Tens of thousands dead. But nothing to be bothered about according to Richard.
    It was not 3% in Srebenica, it was about 30% killed with the other 70% forced to flee. It was genuine ethnic cleansing and an attempt to wipe out a population. Not a war triggered by atrocities like Hamas inflicted.
    It was about 3% of the overall population. It was, yes, absolutely ethnic cleansing and genocide.
    Because the genocide was in Srebenica, not everywhere. It was 30% in Srebenica.

    Nothing comparable to Srebenica happened in Gaza, thank goodness. It demeans what happened there to even make the comparison.
    Hold on, Bart. Genocide is defined in international law. It was a concept invented for international law. But you don’t believe international law exists
    That is not the case, I have never said it does not exist, I have always said that like the pirate code it is more guidelines than actual rules - and where possible we should respect the guidelines but we should not be treating them as immutable rules that have to be followed.

    The meaning of the word has always been an attempt to wipe out a population. Twisting it to mean anything else, belittles and devalues the meaning of the word.
    So, if these aren’t immutable rules that have to be followed, that means that genocide is OK sometimes? I mean, I recall you were actively advocating for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza for a while, before thankfully stepping back from that position.
    It is absolutely worth keeping a distinction between genocide and ethnic cleansing. I can not imagine the former ever being acceptable, but for moral rather than legal reasons. The latter might sometimes be, though it is certainly not ideal.

    What I actually said is if there is no other viable route to peace then it might be the least-worst option, and one well-trodden in the past century without outrage including just a couple of years ago (thankfully without much violence) as discussed earlier in this conversation.

    Rounding people up, digging trenches, and shooting them in the back of the head - I can not see any circumstances where that is acceptable. Because of morals.
    Peacefully seeing transfers of people when borders change - that might have a place.
    You are so keen to support peace that you would consider removing a whole population from a region to achieve it. Yet you are so keen for war that every US or Israeli bombing mission is worth it for a minuscule chance that it might lead to a positive change. Some would see you as a man full of contradictions, but I think that would be unfair. There is a common thread here: no sympathy for the civilians affected. If Gazans or Iranians have to suffer for your goals, so be it.
    At the moment, Barty is very hard to distinguish from the neocons who backed the Iraq adventure a couple of decades back.
    Absolutely agreed, I am an unabashed neocon when it comes to international politics, yes.

    I think John Bolton for example is very sound when it comes to international politics.

    I think Iraq today is far superior to Iraq under Hussein. I do not regret the Iraq War.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,163

    Some mildly good news for Anas.
    Otoh it’s going to be a terrrrible night for the SCons.

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/2029178918058475556?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Reform a small swing from finishing fifth or sixth in seats
    And they were 'second in 54 seats' in that MRP.
    Lol
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800

    Spanish PM Sánchez responds to Trump:

    "Spain is against this disaster..."

    https://bsky.app/profile/adamjschwarz.bsky.social/post/3mga6bxhtck2z

    By that he means Trump ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    kle4 said:

    Reform have steadily toxified themselves over the last 6 months.

    At heart, is Farage scared of and doesn't really want to be PM so is self-sabotaging?

    Not quite worked yet, so he may need to really step it up. Weekly visits to Mar-a-lago?
    There must be some really odious Republicans he can go and stump for in the mid-terms?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,249
    A UK Border Force officer and a trade official carried out ‘shadow policing’ and surveillance for Chinese agents, a court heard. Retired Hong Kong police officer Chung Biu Yuen, 65, also known as ‘Billy’ or Bill Yuen, worked for the Hong Kong Economic Trade Office in London. He allegedly gave surveillance tasks to Chi Leung Wai, 40, also known as Peter Wai, who worked for UK border force and was a City of London special constable.

    https://courtnewsuk.co.uk/border-force-officer-was-working-for-chinese-intelligence/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,787
    I very much fancied SA today but chasing is usually the way to go at Eden Gardens with the dew so does that bring NZ back into it? Interestingly poised.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 60,331
    MaxPB said:

    It's going to be interesting to see if MPs finally address the marginal £100k tax band now that they're approaching it and will likely breach it next year. Interesting that the OBR came out and said that high taxes are now depressing work. There's probably a few tax rates that could be cut which will result in more overall tax take.

    Art Laffer is laughing his arse off that they’re only just realising this now…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,185
    edited 1:19PM

    Sandpit said:

    Krishna, a former management consultant, was appointed the PFEW’s first chief executive in 2024 and is reported to be paid more than £320,000 a year.

    £320k a year and still allegedly on the take.

    How is the police union leader paid double a Chief Constable (or Prime Minister) salary?
    Because the PM's salary is ludicrously low, in the main. Yes there are other benefits (pension for life after, free board etc in Downing Street and the use of Chequers) but the salary is tiny c.f. to what I think it should be.
    Free cat too.

    So, how does free board, the use of Chequers etc. factor in to the Prime Minister's income tax bill? Are those benefits taxed?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,776
    So what is the name of this war? Gulf War?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,824
    dixiedean said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    i really don’t understand those saying Starmer is in any kind of pickle.

    He’s made the decisions I would have made (obviously the key determinant of being wise). He didn’t get dragged into the initial, irrational attack, but he’s used our forces to protect us and our allies.

    Yes it would have been nice to have more forces pre-positioned to do it, but we can hardly blame him for defence cuts from before his ministry. Those cuts are why we no longer have ships in the gulf or more likelihood of a destroyer being at sea.

    I am happy with a PM not leaping into someone else’s war on no notice, in order to pretend we were part of the decision to launch it.

    Yes a lot of bad faith actors are pretending his position is incoherent or stupid because they want to join the war.

    They should just say so and be done with it.

    But his position is perfectly reasonable. All the British people will have heard is that we’ve not joined Trump’s war and Trump hates him.

    Actually might do him some good with the voters.
    Totally agree. Obviously there is some risk in it, not least because we will be acting in theatre without (we assume) full access to the American plan. But what else can he do?
    He could have said to the Americans "we don't want to get involved directly, so our planes will be staying on the ground, but as our allies you are welcome to use the bases".

    Instead he had to say not just no to joining in, but no to even using the bases.
    In international law, enabling someone else is the same as doing something yourself. If we thought it unlawful, we had to withhold the use of our bases. Had we thought it lawful, we probably should have been involved.
    Fetishing international law above alliances, morals and doing the right thing. While also misunderstanding international law.

    International law is not some divine tablet handed down from Mount Sinai, it is guidelines that has nuance - and which led Carney and Albanese, both stern critics of Trump, to support the action.

    The doctrine of self-defence exists within international law and is applicable here as a matter of fact - Iran is attacking Israel both directly and indirectly, so they and their allies like America are entitled to fight Iran. And pre-emptive self-defence is well-established in international law too. There is no need to wait for a mushroom cloud to appear above Tel Aviv before taking action.
    Carney massively rowing back his position. "It's for the United States and Israel to make the case ... prima facie, it appears that these actions are inconsistent with international law" "Canada wasn't asked to participate. ... International law books so we call for de-escalation"

    https://bsky.app/profile/sarobertson.bsky.social/post/3mg6ua5njax2k
    He’s totally shat the bed but now looks stupid as he joined in. And people still think Starmer was wrong to avoid this altogether?
    Agreed. International law shouldn't be a fetish, but rather a North star to guide your actions. If you ignore it as Carney did, you tend to screw up badly.
    Even if this madness past the international law test no one with an ounce of military strategic sense would touch it with a barge pole.

    There is no strategy. There is no goal. There is no end. There is no exit. There is not even a plan for the resource required this time next week.

    Utter utter madness and if it takes some lefty lawyer room-mate AG of Starmer's to spot this - then thank the gods.
    How do you know there is no plan or strategy?

    On day one the Ayatollah, many Generals and many other leaders were liquidated.

    That seems to have a detail of planning that is remarkable.

    We are still not even a week in, and today many more senior leaders have been reported killed - and you claim no plan?
    Fine. We are never going to agree on this one.

    Let's see where this madness is in, say, three months time.

    Or three years time, or ten years time.

    I think we're much more likely to have a free Persia thanks to these actions than if they were not taken.

    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/thetimes/status/2028959632891273358

    UK foreign policy is choked by lawyers, says departing diplomat

    And thank the Lord for that.
    Otherwise it'd be the Daily fucking Mail.
    Or, and this might be a novel concept to you, it could be ran by a democratically elected Government accountable to a democratically elected Parliament?
    See. That's exactly what's happening.
    A democratically elected government is choosing to listen to its lawyers rather than the Daily Mail.
    What's your issue here exactly?
    That their advice isn't kill, kill, kill?
    That may be a novel concept for you.
    The issue is that is the tail wagging the dog.

    If you oppose this because you think it is wrong, then that is respectable. I disagree with you, but fair enough.

    Outsourcing right or wrong to lawyers is not apt though. The PM and the MPs should be making the call, not lawyers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800
    MattW said:

    Brixian59 said:

    Jesus Christ she is all over the place, wants defence spending increased today..

    Starmers getting it happening anyway by using g 2m missile to shoot down a 26k drone.
    That's 50 drones shot down for the price of one bat tunnel...
    They need some of the systems we cobbled together for Ukraine.
    The US has them.
    They're deploying thousands of APKWS rockets for air defence. The F15 carries 18 at a time.

    Defence pundits have been pointing out the UK's extreme lack of such systems - and particularly key ground based air defence - since fairly early on in the war in Ukraine.
    They've been proven right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290
    edited 1:22PM

    So what is the name of this war? Gulf War?

    Iran War.

    "We're Khomen in..."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,949
    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    A rare misstep by Carney .

    Who now seems to be rowing back from his previous support . Hard to understand why he gave what seemed total support to begin with .

    Clearly if energy prices rocket and inflation rises it’s hard to avoid blame if you backed the action .

    He is looking like a muppet.
    He most certainly is

    People forget his less than distinguished stint at the BoE.
    Not the worst that has been there though Taz
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,030

    So what is the name of this war? Gulf War?

    It's officially Major Combat Operation (MCO). Trump's boss has already taken the SMO title.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,824
    MelonB said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    i really don’t understand those saying Starmer is in any kind of pickle.

    He’s made the decisions I would have made (obviously the key determinant of being wise). He didn’t get dragged into the initial, irrational attack, but he’s used our forces to protect us and our allies.

    Yes it would have been nice to have more forces pre-positioned to do it, but we can hardly blame him for defence cuts from before his ministry. Those cuts are why we no longer have ships in the gulf or more likelihood of a destroyer being at sea.

    I am happy with a PM not leaping into someone else’s war on no notice, in order to pretend we were part of the decision to launch it.

    Yes a lot of bad faith actors are pretending his position is incoherent or stupid because they want to join the war.

    They should just say so and be done with it.

    But his position is perfectly reasonable. All the British people will have heard is that we’ve not joined Trump’s war and Trump hates him.

    Actually might do him some good with the voters.
    Totally agree. Obviously there is some risk in it, not least because we will be acting in theatre without (we assume) full access to the American plan. But what else can he do?
    He could have said to the Americans "we don't want to get involved directly, so our planes will be staying on the ground, but as our allies you are welcome to use the bases".

    Instead he had to say not just no to joining in, but no to even using the bases.
    In international law, enabling someone else is the same as doing something yourself. If we thought it unlawful, we had to withhold the use of our bases. Had we thought it lawful, we probably should have been involved.
    Fetishing international law above alliances, morals and doing the right thing. While also misunderstanding international law.

    International law is not some divine tablet handed down from Mount Sinai, it is guidelines that has nuance - and which led Carney and Albanese, both stern critics of Trump, to support the action.

    The doctrine of self-defence exists within international law and is applicable here as a matter of fact - Iran is attacking Israel both directly and indirectly, so they and their allies like America are entitled to fight Iran. And pre-emptive self-defence is well-established in international law too. There is no need to wait for a mushroom cloud to appear above Tel Aviv before taking action.
    Carney massively rowing back his position. "It's for the United States and Israel to make the case ... prima facie, it appears that these actions are inconsistent with international law" "Canada wasn't asked to participate. ... International law books so we call for de-escalation"

    https://bsky.app/profile/sarobertson.bsky.social/post/3mg6ua5njax2k
    He’s totally shat the bed but now looks stupid as he joined in. And people still think Starmer was wrong to avoid this altogether?
    Agreed. International law shouldn't be a fetish, but rather a North star to guide your actions. If you ignore it as Carney did, you tend to screw up badly.
    Even if this madness past the international law test no one with an ounce of military strategic sense would touch it with a barge pole.

    There is no strategy. There is no goal. There is no end. There is no exit. There is not even a plan for the resource required this time next week.

    Utter utter madness and if it takes some lefty lawyer room-mate AG of Starmer's to spot this - then thank the gods.
    How do you know there is no plan or strategy?

    On day one the Ayatollah, many Generals and many other leaders were liquidated.

    That seems to have a detail of planning that is remarkable.

    We are still not even a week in, and today many more senior leaders have been reported killed - and you claim no plan?
    Fine. We are never going to agree on this one.

    Let's see where this madness is in, say, three months time.

    Or three years time, or ten years time.

    I think we're much more likely to have a free Persia thanks to these actions than if they were not taken.
    Remember the state of Iran predates the Islamic revolution, and was chosen deliberately as a name to convey the non-ethnic nature of the state. “Persia”, if it sees a resurgence as an identity, means a turn back to ethno-nationalism. It would be like renaming the UK “England”. We should be hoping for a liberal, democratic and multi-ethnic Iran, not a new Persia.
    You have it backwards. Iran was the historical, local, ethnic name, with Persia being the westernised (Greek-inspired) name.

    In the 30s the Shah changed the name to Iran to de-westernise the name, but then later on people thought that Persia was a respected name and his successor as Shah chose to half-reverse that change saying that both names were valid.

    Then the Islamic Republic happened and the Mullahs axed the name Persia and insisted upon only Iran.

    Many opponents of the Islamic regime embrace the name Persia as a widely-respected and pre-Islamic Republic civilised name for the region.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,591
    edited 1:25PM
    MaxPB said:

    It's going to be interesting to see if MPs finally address the marginal £100k tax band now that they're approaching it and will likely breach it next year. Interesting that the OBR came out and said that high taxes are now depressing work. There's probably a few tax rates that could be cut which will result in more overall tax take.

    The political cost is too high for relatively small gain in cash. "Tax cuts for the rich". The same issue with the triple lock - doesn't save much over 5 years, catastrophic over 30 years.

    Both need to happen. I still contend that on tax the bigger issue is around £50k and the child benefit cutoff - many more people around that, and more sensitive to work:leisure balance than the kind of high performer on £100k. Perhaps both fixes should be packaged together to make it a bit more palatable.

    (I will almost certainly drop to 4 day week in the next few years. My partner has already done so).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,661
    I take my grandson for a walk and its Spying and China wtf...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,290

    So what is the name of this war? Gulf War?

    The Persian Incursion
    Obvs
    It may become the 10-day TACO War.

    Or else the Second Hundred Years War.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,998

    So what is the name of this war? Gulf War?

    The War of Jeffrey’s File
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,800
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Blimey, it wasn't even close.
    Talarico 53.1%; Crockett 45.6 %

    It will take a blue wave to win Texas, but it's not impossible.

    3% in the lead vs Paxton and 3% behind Cornyn in early polling fwiw. Should be close, assuming it can be held. Oh and Crockett is challenging the primary result too.
    Crockett’s trying to blame Republicans for losing the Democratic primary!

    As if the Republicans weren’t praying she got the nomination over the much more centrist Talarico.
    Their ballot fixing dry run did have a disproportional on her, intentional or not.
    But it didn't swing the election.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 19,185
    Taz said:

    Partner of sitting Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China

    Exclusive: Arrests under National Security Act understood to also include the partner of a former Labour MP


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/04/parliament-arrests-suspicion-spying-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Well labour is supposedly investigating foreign influence in our politics with the report due out before the locals and it’s not at all a simple ruse to attack Reform. Oh no

    I’m sure not only will Mandelson be in it after the Epstein files but this too. Oh yes !
    Were they investigating foreign influence by going undercover and spying for China? If so, I admire their commitment!
  • TazTaz Posts: 25,692
    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    A rare misstep by Carney .

    Who now seems to be rowing back from his previous support . Hard to understand why he gave what seemed total support to begin with .

    Clearly if energy prices rocket and inflation rises it’s hard to avoid blame if you backed the action .

    He is looking like a muppet.
    He most certainly is

    People forget his less than distinguished stint at the BoE.
    Not the worst that has been there though Taz
    True, and the current incumbent isn’t exactly doing a stellar job.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,380

    So what is the name of this war? Gulf War?

    The Epstein Smokescreen.
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