politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a dif
Comments
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Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)
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Does "close" mean less than 99% ?RodCrosby said:
Comparable PM approval ratings to MORI.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Approval ratings
David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015
The L&N model suggests close to a Tory majority.0 -
Mr. Surbiton, hope was all Byzantium had as Bayezid readied the Turkish horde to conquer the city.
Then Tamerlane turned up and utterly destroyed the Turks, taking Bayezid as a captive to be used as his footstool until he went mad and died.0 -
That may be - but Atlanta isn't meant to be :-(bigjohnowls said:
Lincolnshire is a very cold place to live!Tim_B said:Boston getting serious snow again tomorrow. Wind chills down to -25 deg.
WE are getting 3 inches on Monday!!!!0 -
something cold and hard to slip on.....Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. B, rare to see a chap get all excited by the prospect of 3".0 -
Wow, who could have predicted this...
@JohnRentoul: Pink bus is patronising: ComRes poll: Most voters – male and female – think that Labour’s pink “Woman to Woman... http://t.co/7oVrZ9cgly0 -
Don't be facetious. It's always been less than that.surbiton said:
Does "close" mean less than 99% ?RodCrosby said:
Comparable PM approval ratings to MORI.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Approval ratings
David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015
The L&N model suggests close to a Tory majority.0 -
My Rotary club held a 5k this morning. At race time at 9am it was 21 degrees F. 500 runners turned up - my assumption is they are all warmist deniers. :-)nigel4england said:
Imagine how bad it would be if we didn't have global warming.Tim_B said:Boston getting serious snow again tomorrow. Wind chills down to -25 deg.
WE are getting 3 inches on Monday!!!!0 -
Unfortunately the story that started in Copenhagen isn't over yet.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Saddened and disturbed to hear of the latest murderous insanity, as at least one man's dead in a shooting at a free speech debate in Copenhagen.
Mr. B, rare to see a chap get all excited by the prospect of 3".
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I'm disappointed. The PB Labour Obornes assured us that this week would prove a game changer. So far, the greatest week of Ed Miliband's political career hasn't registered one iota. What should worry Labour is that heaping opprobrium on business leaders and Tory peers is all Miliband has. If that doesn't do anything - and it doesn't look as if it is - what next?MarqueeMark said:
Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)0 -
Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.
let that sink in....0 -
Mark Senior said that the PB Tories were going after an 80 year old woman and they were digging a gutter.
Mmmmm... Ok so some questions on that statement as follows
1) at what age do people who have worked within the tax rules and avoided tax in a legitimate vehicle are not to be held responsible for the moral duty of paying that tax.? 40? 60? 80? When or after they pop their clogs? When?
2) which other people are exempt from his wrath when they engage in a perfectly legal activity and just go about their business or is it just "doners " of the right?
3) why should his mum not be mentioned given Ed is targeting people who have done precisely. the same thing, acted within the rules yet seem to inccur his wrath even though it's quite legal and legitimate.?
4)why does he mention only those on the right of the political spectrum rather than those right next to and around him involved in the same perfectly legal practices?
And the real good one......
5) Why as a minister of the crown and according to his CV aired the other day as " experience in the real world " as economic advisor to the treasury did he not over 13 years of that advising and sitting in cabinet do absolutely diddle squat about it?
Perhaps because he is a total hypocritical opportunistic dipshit simply out to smear the right aided and abetted by all the usual suspects.
Jeeeez...... labour will be smearing the Tory and lib dem wives next?.......Oh wait a minute?
As for Smeareons comments earlier they are not worth wasting pixels on
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What had Labour drifted out to ?bigjohnowls said:
EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/TheScreamingEagles said:Opinum poll for the Observer
Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)
Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)0 -
France's top baguette baker ordered to stop working seven days a week
Stephane Cazenave, who runs a boulangerie in Saint-Paul-les-Dax, Landes, faces a 1,500 euro fine for flouting a 1999 prefectural order obliging any bakery to remain closed for at least one day per week.
The ruling against Mr Cazenave, which he says will see him lose 250,000 euros a year and force him to lay-off some of his 22 staff, has ignited a storm in France, with the baker's plight seen as symbolising all that is wrong with anti-business regulations stifling the economy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11411504/Frances-top-baguette-baker-ordered-to-stop-working-seven-days-a-week.html
Ed's model for the future?0 -
I'm averaged at just over 2.5surbiton said:
What had Labour drifted out to ?bigjohnowls said:
EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/TheScreamingEagles said:Opinum poll for the Observer
Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)
Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)0 -
Rod is a funny guy.
The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.
Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.0 -
What's your latest GE prediction IOS ?IOS said:Rod is a funny guy.
The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.
Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.0 -
The one that isn't sinking in.TGOHF said:Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.
let that sink in....
Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.0 -
So the Tory poster with him as worst nightmare might just backfire?scotslass said:Screaming Eagle/Dair
Scotland Sub Samples.
The Opinium polling date were Tuesday to Thursday. The latest YouGov was Wednesday Thursday and had SNP 51-22 ahead of Labour in Scotland but Labour 3 points ahead of Tories over UK. Conclusion never take less the average of five Scottish sub samples to show the trend . On that basis, if anything, the SNP lead is going up on both YouGove and Populus.
I agee with Dair on Any Questions which I heard today. If that is the warmth of reception Salmond gets in London he must be pretty popular in Scotland.0 -
Mr. Y0kel, I haven't seen much of the story, but it sounded as if the perpetrators had escaped.
It's vital that the boundaries of free speech are not dictated by murderous lunatics.0 -
Not really - the amounts raise show Dave did a far better job than the Eds and that mad bloke they used to worship.TheScreamingEagles said:
The one that isn't sinking in.TGOHF said:Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.
let that sink in....
Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.0 -
That was the week that was.TheScreamingEagles said:
The one that isn't sinking in.TGOHF said:Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.
let that sink in....
Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.
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IOS said:
Rod is a funny guy.
The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.
Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.
I thought the best bit was the report that someone was claiming it was racist when they saw black smoke being emitted from the vatican chimney?
I mean WTF?0 -
The Danes have a very short list on one of the suspects. Again there is notably considerable liaison with Swedish security service colleagues0
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EICIPM !! HMRC bigwigs buying packing material.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)0 -
I think the reception he got from Joe Public at the Ryder cup is a better indication.OldKingCole said:
So the Tory poster with him as worst nightmare might just backfire?scotslass said:Screaming Eagle/Dair
Scotland Sub Samples.
The Opinium polling date were Tuesday to Thursday. The latest YouGov was Wednesday Thursday and had SNP 51-22 ahead of Labour in Scotland but Labour 3 points ahead of Tories over UK. Conclusion never take less the average of five Scottish sub samples to show the trend . On that basis, if anything, the SNP lead is going up on both YouGove and Populus.
I agee with Dair on Any Questions which I heard today. If that is the warmth of reception Salmond gets in London he must be pretty popular in Scotland.0 -
Mr. Moses, that was David Lammy. I thought it was an excellent spot of comedy.0
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It has. EICIPM. Crossover now moved to....................... ?Stark_Dawning said:
I'm disappointed. The PB Labour Obornes assured us that this week would prove a game changer. So far, the greatest week of Ed Miliband's political career hasn't registered one iota. What should worry Labour is that heaping opprobrium on business leaders and Tory peers is all Miliband has. If that doesn't do anything - and it doesn't look as if it is - what next?MarqueeMark said:
Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)0 -
To counter the increasing threat of the separatists SNP?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Grand Army of the RepublicOblitusSumMe said:
Grand Coalition.GIN1138 said:
Not bad for Dave. I thought his approval ratings might have taken a hit this week.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium Approval ratings
David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015
What the public *REALLY* wants is David Cameron as PM of a Labour government...
Wonder if he's ever thought about defecting?
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Glad you're happy with the prospect of a crap PMsurbiton said:
It has. EICIPM. Crossover now moved to....................... ?Stark_Dawning said:
I'm disappointed. The PB Labour Obornes assured us that this week would prove a game changer. So far, the greatest week of Ed Miliband's political career hasn't registered one iota. What should worry Labour is that heaping opprobrium on business leaders and Tory peers is all Miliband has. If that doesn't do anything - and it doesn't look as if it is - what next?MarqueeMark said:
Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1) 0 -
I said at the start it would be a surprise, and probably a non-European, from South America in particular. My fancied candidate didn't make it, and I actually tipped him in a guest article, so I don't follow this "got very annoyed" crap.IOS said:Rod is a funny guy.
The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.
Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.
I ruled out Bergoglio [and reported this at the time] not because he was too old, but because in my research I couldn't find a single photo of him smiling. I thought he was too bloody miserable to be elected!0 -
Sorry, 'Call me Dave' has an approval rating of -1%. What planet am I living on??0
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Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.0
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How many times has Mr Manson come forward and said this was a game changing week for Ed. I'm getting old, but I do not think this was the first time.Stark_Dawning said:
That was the week that was.TheScreamingEagles said:
The one that isn't sinking in.TGOHF said:Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.
let that sink in....
Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.0 -
Anywhere?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.
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Better than me I am 2.486 on thatPulpstar said:
I'm averaged at just over 2.5surbiton said:
What had Labour drifted out to ?bigjohnowls said:
EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/TheScreamingEagles said:Opinum poll for the Observer
Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)
Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)
On next PM after Cameron 2.52 thank to TP (Low stakes yhough as no liquidity)0 -
Not in the least bit suprising to hear it was the Mastermind champ David Lammy who said that. His knowledge of the real world leaves a lot to be desired.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Moses, that was David Lammy. I thought it was an excellent spot of comedy.
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@Morris_Dancer
'Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.'
JackW was a close second.0 -
Mr. SE, we all have blind spots. It was harmless enough, and quite entertaining.
Mr. H, can't recall everyone's predictions. Someone else may have gotten closer, but not many.
On a lighter note, I only saw bits of the rugby today, but Joseph's a bright spark. Nice to see France playing properly in the second half.0 -
EICIPM was at in excess of 6/4surbiton said:
What had Labour drifted out to ?bigjohnowls said:
EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/TheScreamingEagles said:Opinum poll for the Observer
Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)
Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)0 -
The 41% "UKIP has some good ideas for how to run the country" tallies with the recent ComRes 'issues' index, 40% thought UKIP was the best party for immigration, 26% for the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:More details on ComRes
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/02/14/pink-bus-is-patronising-comres-poll/
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
The "lead" column becoming red gradually.0 -
Both have consistently said EICIPM is a non starter in GE2015john_zims said:@Morris_Dancer
'Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.'
JackW was a close second.
I am after the crown0 -
TGOHf
My prediction is that Ed Miliband will be PM. The tories will be out of power and coming to terms with the disastrous leadership of David Cameron.0 -
Tories should be pretty worried at those finding...Although they win on getting growth / reducing deficit, they lose on how any of those economic benefits would be spent.anotherDave said:
The 41% "UKIP has some good ideas for how to run the country" tallies with the recent ComRes 'issues' index, 40% thought UKIP was the best party for immigration, 26% for the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:More details on ComRes
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/02/14/pink-bus-is-patronising-comres-poll/
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384
I always think that the Tories slogan of "long economic plan" is a very poor one...most people are selfish and want to know about them / their families, and that slogan doesn't really define how Tories plan has / would help them.0 -
Broken, sleazy, DODGY Tories on the slide?TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes
Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)0 -
Evening all, just head a rumour from Basil about one of the polls. He's off to top himself.0
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Mr. Owls, well, past performance is no guarantee of future success. I hope you don't take it amiss if I hope your effort to be king of the castle results only in the confirmation that you're a dirty rascal 0
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Your point and that Perdex is perfectly valid. The timetabling of orders for carriers and aircraft is all down to Brown and Labour; and Brown and Labour sold the Sea Harriers in 2006 I think. Labour are also entirely responsible for ordering 66,000 tonne carriers which cannot fly conventional planes.TheWatcher said:
That, and a gaggle of Admirals, who thought as they signed the order, that they could plead for escort ships later, and it would be agreed to without question. Dimwits. Brown ran rings round them.perdix said:
"2 aircraft with No aircraft on them". Thanks to Gordon Brown for letting contracts to build stuff whereby it is cheaper to build them than to cancel them. It's called "pork barrel" for the constituents.surbiton said:
Absolutely correct, you sad Tory ! In fact, I meant to say, "2 aircraft carriers with NO aircraft on them."JonnyJimmy said:
The plural of aircraft is aircraftsurbiton said:Trident: One good thing that could come out of SNP holding the balance of power will be to put into touch for another 5 years any decision on Trident. After all, that is what the Lib Dems did in 2010.
The SNP position is on Trident, not nuclear weapons ! Britain is still adequately protected by nuclear weapons, if we need them at all.
Oops, I forgot we are a world power with 6 aircrafts bombing the hell out of IS in Iraq ! And, 2 aircraft carriers with aircrafts on them. The Harriers having been sold for scrap metal.
Thanks for pointing it out, Gunslinger !
The carriers were delayed and became more expensive because the defence budget was in a total and typical Labour mess.
As far as ISIS is concerned we are more than adequately fulfilling our international treaty obligations and supporting our ally and are preventing genocide. A10 Warthogs BTW - relatively old technology - seem to be doing most damage by the USA.0 -
Could still be of course.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, well, past performance is no guarantee of future success. I hope you don't take it amiss if I hope your effort to be king of the castle results only in the confirmation that you're a dirty rascal
Not looking bad for a newcomer though!
Any F1 tips yet Mr Dancer?0 -
Only Yougov left, and the Sunday Times poll tends to be good for Labour compared to the weekly average.compouter2 said:Evening all, just head a rumour from Basil about one of the polls. He's off to top himself.
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Usain Bolt to retire in 2017
CNN news ticker0 -
Mr. Owls, not other than the ones I offered pre-testing (which is always brave/stupid depending on how they turn out).
For the record, they were:
Rosberg for the title, 4.7, Hamilton for the title, 1.9 (Betfair).
Ladbrokes:
Small stake - Hamilton, 9, 14 or more wins (a record).
Smaller stake - Mercedes, 17, to win every race.
Even smaller stake - Alonso, 15, to win in Australia.
Mercedes would need to screw up to lose their entire performance gap during a few months in the off-season. The Renault engine is looking a little below par, though Ferrari seem to have improved both the engine (in terms of both reliability and power) and their aerodynamic offering. Honda is still working out the gremlins, so it's a bit tricky to assess.
Once me and Mr. Putney have our traditional chat about spread-betting I expect Grosjean and Maldonado to potentially offer the most value. Last year I got a few wrong [not tips, mind], but I was also spot on with Bottas scoring a lot, and the agreement [a rare moment] we had over Maldonado being a sell at something like 66 was also a nice forecast.0 -
Never trust a squirrel I say, but he's not a happy goalpost carrier, I can tell you.philiph said:
Only Yougov left, and the Sunday Times poll tends to be good for Labour compared to the weekly average.compouter2 said:Evening all, just head a rumour from Basil about one of the polls. He's off to top himself.
http://i.imgur.com/11ZHp9I.jpg0 -
The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
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I think the Tories are just trying to convince people that they do have a plan, rather than that they're just clueless muppets hoping things will turn out OK.FrancisUrquhart said:
Tories should be pretty worried at those finding...Although they win on getting growth / reducing deficit, they lose on how any of those economic benefits would be spent.anotherDave said:
The 41% "UKIP has some good ideas for how to run the country" tallies with the recent ComRes 'issues' index, 40% thought UKIP was the best party for immigration, 26% for the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:More details on ComRes
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2015/02/14/pink-bus-is-patronising-comres-poll/
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384
I always think that the Tories slogan of "long economic plan" is a very poor one...most people are selfish and want to know about them / their families, and that slogan doesn't really define how Tories plan has / would help them.
------
UKIP's current slogan appears to be 'Believe in Britain'.
http://www.ukip.org/believe_in_britain_together_we_can_do_great_things0 -
After the 2017 world championships in London.Moses_ said:Usain Bolt to retire in 2017
CNN news ticker
http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/314689900 -
What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on0 -
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Tot up subsamples for South East/East for UKIP maybe that will give the true picture.isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
Fading elsewhere but v strong regional support in SE/E ?0 -
What about the Harriers this government scrapped ?Flightpath said:
Your point and that Perdex is perfectly valid. The timetabling of orders for carriers and aircraft is all down to Brown and Labour; and Brown and Labour sold the Sea Harriers in 2006 I think. Labour are also entirely responsible for ordering 66,000 tonne carriers which cannot fly conventional planes.TheWatcher said:
That, and a gaggle of Admirals, who thought as they signed the order, that they could plead for escort ships later, and it would be agreed to without question. Dimwits. Brown ran rings round them.perdix said:
"2 aircraft with No aircraft on them". Thanks to Gordon Brown for letting contracts to build stuff whereby it is cheaper to build them than to cancel them. It's called "pork barrel" for the constituents.surbiton said:
Absolutely correct, you sad Tory ! In fact, I meant to say, "2 aircraft carriers with NO aircraft on them."JonnyJimmy said:
The plural of aircraft is aircraftsurbiton said:Trident: One good thing that could come out of SNP holding the balance of power will be to put into touch for another 5 years any decision on Trident. After all, that is what the Lib Dems did in 2010.
The SNP position is on Trident, not nuclear weapons ! Britain is still adequately protected by nuclear weapons, if we need them at all.
Oops, I forgot we are a world power with 6 aircrafts bombing the hell out of IS in Iraq ! And, 2 aircraft carriers with aircrafts on them. The Harriers having been sold for scrap metal.
Thanks for pointing it out, Gunslinger !
The carriers were delayed and became more expensive because the defence budget was in a total and typical Labour mess.
As far as ISIS is concerned we are more than adequately fulfilling our international treaty obligations and supporting our ally and are preventing genocide. A10 Warthogs BTW - relatively old technology - seem to be doing most damage by the USA.0 -
@BetfairPredicts: Labour won a 66 majority in 2005 on 35.2%. Now, leading last 7 polls, averaging 34.6%, they're 17.5 for a majority. http://t.co/y9EVauw4Ot
I think we can call that "The Ed Effect"0 -
People loose their rag and get warnings.
MikeK can quote - with every semblance of approval - 'Tommy Robinson' and ... all is well with the world.
Sad times. Except we see where UKIP is coming from.
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OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favssurbiton said:
What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on0 -
We know that the ComRes changed their methodology regarding the weighting for UKIP before their last poll, so we can expect some point loss from tis company.isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
From this weekend, I expect that UKIP share will now start a gradual rise.
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Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?isam said:
OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favssurbiton said:
What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on0 -
I wouldn't say the single reason that Labour are ahead in the last 7 polls is "The Ed Effect", though it has played some part in it obviously.Scott_P said:@BetfairPredicts: Labour won a 66 majority in 2005 on 35.2%. Now, leading last 7 polls, averaging 34.6%, they're 17.5 for a majority. http://t.co/y9EVauw4Ot
I think we can call that "The Ed Effect"0 -
UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.0
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Part-ELBOW so far this week now inc. ComRes: Lab lead now 1.3% (same as final result last week).
Meanwhile, LD lead over the Greens 1.4% (was 0.8% last week).0 -
It does seem very UKIP friendly where I live and the surrounding areas... I am sure it is to do with the daily commute through the shitholes of East London that makes people feel that way... Also Romford has a lot of immigrants now thanks to the Council housing people from Stratford in the new flats next to Queens hospital.. its getting more and more vibrant and diversePulpstar said:
Tot up subsamples for South East/East for UKIP maybe that will give the true picture.isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
Fading elsewhere but v strong regional support in SE/E ?
I told the girl I have been seeing that I was a kipper and she commented how many houses in the posh part of Romford (Gidea Park) had UKIP signs/posters up so it seems lots of people are getting involved
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Wrong, it was opinium not ComResMikeK said:
We know that the ComRes changed their methodology regarding the weighting for UKIP before their last poll, so we can expect some point loss from tis company.isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
From this weekend, I expect that UKIP share will now start a gradual rise.0 -
Nah, that was a disaster for Ed.Pulpstar said:UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.
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13-8 Great GrimsbyJonnyJimmy said:
Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?isam said:
OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favssurbiton said:
What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
11-4 Rotherham
7-2 Dudley North
6-1 Rother Valley0 -
Is it 13/8 Great Grimsby? Rotherham 11/4, Rother Valley 6s Telford 8s?JonnyJimmy said:
Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?isam said:
OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favssurbiton said:
What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
The 11/8 UKIP to win a seat off labour w Lads is a great bet IMO0 -
I read (Spectator I think) that UKIP were letting the two major parties rip into each other and deliberately taking a back seat for a while.. maybe they thought the squabbling over miniscule differences would play badly w the public.. doesn't seem to be a successful strategy so far, but a long way to goPulpstar said:UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.
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@MikeK
I've started reading a viking book series you might like, "The Oathsworn" by Robert Low.
http://www.robert-low.com/oathswornseries.htm0 -
Pulpstar said:
13-8 Great Grimsby
11-4 Rotherham
7-2 Dudley North
6-1 Rother Valley
Thanks chaps!isam said:
Is it 13/8 Great Grimsby? Rotherham 11/4, Rother Valley 6s Telford 8s?
The 11/8 UKIP to win a seat off labour w Lads is a great bet IMO
I was asking with an eye on that 11/8 that Shadsy's got up..0 -
Oh Dudders!! I had a score at 25s about a year ago I think forgot about that!Pulpstar said:
13-8 Great GrimsbyJonnyJimmy said:
Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?isam said:
OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favssurbiton said:
What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?isam said:The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)
Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on
11-4 Rotherham
7-2 Dudley North
6-1 Rother Valley
Like Wolverhampton NE at a big price too (25s?)0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Poll count February so far
CON lead 2 polls
CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
LAB lead 15
Not great reading for the Cons.0 -
It is the women of Britain who will put Ed in No.10Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
It seems wrong off his own prices to me at first glanceJonnyJimmy said:0 -
A note on the Scottish subsample: *ahem*
Scotland unweighted 151 -> Weighted 172
SNP unweighted 49 -> 41 weighted.0 -
Tick Tock. Tick Tock.Tykejohnno said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Poll count February so far
CON lead 2 polls
CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
LAB lead 15
Not great reading for the Cons.
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UKIP poll numbers increased during election season in May 2013, and May 2014. Why should 2015 be different?isam said:
I read (Spectator I think) that UKIP were letting the two major parties rip into each other and deliberately taking a back seat for a while.. maybe they thought the squabbling over miniscule differences would play badly w the public.. doesn't seem to be a successful strategy so far, but a long way to goPulpstar said:UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.
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Which figures are you looking at, I only see a 1% difference between the genders. Definitely MoE given the sample size.surbiton said:
It is the women of Britain who will put Ed in No.10Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Put through the Euro Corrector - Opinium and Comres have the Tories on 35.9%.
The Euro Corrector is how wrongly both called the Tories in May 2014.0 -
Frankly it IS a terrific week for Ed. Given the chance Ed spent 13 years doing nothing to crack down on tax avoidance. Given the chance Dave has spent 5 years cracking down on tax avoidance.john_zims said:@TSE
'Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.'
As we are repeatedly told a terrific week for Ed.
Yet Ed scores level!0 -
Mr. Dave, and Mr. K, you might be interested to know that the BBC has commissioned a series based on Bernard Cornwell's series about Anglo-Saxon England and the Vikings. If they have the attention to detail shown in Wolf Hall, it could be rather good. If they make it like Atlantis, it'll be atrocious.0
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Con leads coming through reliably from Ashcroft - the UK Rasmussen Reports.Tykejohnno said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Poll count February so far
CON lead 2 polls
CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
LAB lead 15
Not great reading for the Cons.0 -
Any prospect of a labour-snp coalition during the heat of the campaign in April will cause chaos in England with a sharp move to back the conservatives to prevent a constitutional crisis. I understand some English labour MPs are threatening to sit on the opposition benches if Ed Miliband goes anywhere near this proposition realising the anger that could befall them from their constituants0
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With only YG/ST to come, UKIP now on 14.2% so far this week in ELBOWPulpstar said:UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.
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Wash your mouth out. It's a disaster for Ed, it always is.Tykejohnno said:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Poll count February so far
CON lead 2 polls
CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
LAB lead 15
Not great reading for the Cons.0 -
Because this election matters.anotherDave said:
UKIP poll numbers increased during election season in May 2013, and May 2014. Why should 2015 be different?isam said:
I read (Spectator I think) that UKIP were letting the two major parties rip into each other and deliberately taking a back seat for a while.. maybe they thought the squabbling over miniscule differences would play badly w the public.. doesn't seem to be a successful strategy so far, but a long way to goPulpstar said:UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.
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The TV adaptions of Sharpe and Hornblower didn't really work very well. I think it's difficult to adapt these things on a budget. They call for an army of extras.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dave, and Mr. K, you might be interested to know that the BBC has commissioned a series based on Bernard Cornwell's series about Anglo-Saxon England and the Vikings. If they have the attention to detail shown in Wolf Hall, it could be rather good. If they make it like Atlantis, it'll be atrocious.
That said, Vikings works well. And the battle scenes in Game of Thrones I think use computers to generate a convincing army.
http://www.history.com/shows/vikings0 -
It won't be a coalition, I heard this on "Any Questions", it'll be a bill by bill arrangement.Big_G_NorthWales said:Any prospect of a labour-snp coalition during the heat of the campaign in April will cause chaos in England with a sharp move to back the conservatives to prevent a constitutional crisis. I understand some English labour MPs are threatening to sit on the opposition benches if Ed Miliband goes anywhere near this proposition realising the anger that could befall them from their constituants
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