Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a dif

124

Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    ComRes

    Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)

    Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RodCrosby said:

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Comparable PM approval ratings to MORI.

    The L&N model suggests close to a Tory majority.
    Does "close" mean less than 99% ?
  • Mr. Surbiton, hope was all Byzantium had as Bayezid readied the Turkish horde to conquer the city.

    Then Tamerlane turned up and utterly destroyed the Turks, taking Bayezid as a captive to be used as his footstool until he went mad and died.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Boston getting serious snow again tomorrow. Wind chills down to -25 deg.

    WE are getting 3 inches on Monday!!!!

    Lincolnshire is a very cold place to live!
    That may be - but Atlanta isn't meant to be :-(
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669



    Mr. B, rare to see a chap get all excited by the prospect of 3".

    something cold and hard to slip on.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Wow, who could have predicted this...

    @JohnRentoul: Pink bus is patronising: ComRes poll: Most voters – male and female – think that Labour’s pink “Woman to Woman... http://t.co/7oVrZ9cgly
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    surbiton said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Comparable PM approval ratings to MORI.

    The L&N model suggests close to a Tory majority.
    Does "close" mean less than 99% ?
    Don't be facetious. It's always been less than that.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Boston getting serious snow again tomorrow. Wind chills down to -25 deg.

    WE are getting 3 inches on Monday!!!!

    Imagine how bad it would be if we didn't have global warming.
    My Rotary club held a 5k this morning. At race time at 9am it was 21 degrees F. 500 runners turned up - my assumption is they are all warmist deniers. :-)
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Surbiton

    'Now you are down to just hope !'

    Yes, terrific week for Ed, shame that's not reflected in the polls.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Good evening, everyone.

    Saddened and disturbed to hear of the latest murderous insanity, as at least one man's dead in a shooting at a free speech debate in Copenhagen.

    Mr. B, rare to see a chap get all excited by the prospect of 3".

    Unfortunately the story that started in Copenhagen isn't over yet.
  • ComRes

    Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)

    Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.
    I'm disappointed. The PB Labour Obornes assured us that this week would prove a game changer. So far, the greatest week of Ed Miliband's political career hasn't registered one iota. What should worry Labour is that heaping opprobrium on business leaders and Tory peers is all Miliband has. If that doesn't do anything - and it doesn't look as if it is - what next?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.

    let that sink in....
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited February 2015
    Mark Senior said that the PB Tories were going after an 80 year old woman and they were digging a gutter.

    Mmmmm... Ok so some questions on that statement as follows

    1) at what age do people who have worked within the tax rules and avoided tax in a legitimate vehicle are not to be held responsible for the moral duty of paying that tax.? 40? 60? 80? When or after they pop their clogs? When?

    2) which other people are exempt from his wrath when they engage in a perfectly legal activity and just go about their business or is it just "doners " of the right?

    3) why should his mum not be mentioned given Ed is targeting people who have done precisely. the same thing, acted within the rules yet seem to inccur his wrath even though it's quite legal and legitimate.?

    4)why does he mention only those on the right of the political spectrum rather than those right next to and around him involved in the same perfectly legal practices?

    And the real good one......

    5) Why as a minister of the crown and according to his CV aired the other day as " experience in the real world " as economic advisor to the treasury did he not over 13 years of that advising and sitting in cabinet do absolutely diddle squat about it?


    Perhaps because he is a total hypocritical opportunistic dipshit simply out to smear the right aided and abetted by all the usual suspects.

    Jeeeez...... labour will be smearing the Tory and lib dem wives next?.......Oh wait a minute?


    As for Smeareons comments earlier they are not worth wasting pixels on

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    France's top baguette baker ordered to stop working seven days a week

    Stephane Cazenave, who runs a boulangerie in Saint-Paul-les-Dax, Landes, faces a 1,500 euro fine for flouting a 1999 prefectural order obliging any bakery to remain closed for at least one day per week.

    The ruling against Mr Cazenave, which he says will see him lose 250,000 euros a year and force him to lay-off some of his 22 staff, has ignited a storm in France, with the baker's plight seen as symbolising all that is wrong with anti-business regulations stifling the economy.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11411504/Frances-top-baguette-baker-ordered-to-stop-working-seven-days-a-week.html

    Ed's model for the future?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)
    What had Labour drifted out to ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    surbiton said:

    Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)
    What had Labour drifted out to ?
    I'm averaged at just over 2.5
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Rod is a funny guy.

    The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.

    Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.

    let that sink in....

    Whither the Blob...?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IOS said:

    Rod is a funny guy.

    The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.

    Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.

    What's your latest GE prediction IOS ?
  • TGOHF said:

    Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.

    let that sink in....

    The one that isn't sinking in.

    Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    scotslass said:

    Screaming Eagle/Dair

    Scotland Sub Samples.

    The Opinium polling date were Tuesday to Thursday. The latest YouGov was Wednesday Thursday and had SNP 51-22 ahead of Labour in Scotland but Labour 3 points ahead of Tories over UK. Conclusion never take less the average of five Scottish sub samples to show the trend . On that basis, if anything, the SNP lead is going up on both YouGove and Populus.

    I agee with Dair on Any Questions which I heard today. If that is the warmth of reception Salmond gets in London he must be pretty popular in Scotland.

    So the Tory poster with him as worst nightmare might just backfire?
  • Mr. Y0kel, I haven't seen much of the story, but it sounded as if the perpetrators had escaped.

    It's vital that the boundaries of free speech are not dictated by murderous lunatics.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.

    let that sink in....

    The one that isn't sinking in.

    Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.
    Not really - the amounts raise show Dave did a far better job than the Eds and that mad bloke they used to worship.
  • TGOHF said:

    Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.

    let that sink in....

    The one that isn't sinking in.

    Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.
    That was the week that was.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    IOS said:

    Rod is a funny guy.

    The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.

    Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.



    I thought the best bit was the report that someone was claiming it was racist when they saw black smoke being emitted from the vatican chimney?

    I mean WTF?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    The Danes have a very short list on one of the suspects. Again there is notably considerable liaison with Swedish security service colleagues
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    ComRes

    Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)

    EICIPM !! HMRC bigwigs buying packing material.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    scotslass said:

    Screaming Eagle/Dair

    Scotland Sub Samples.

    The Opinium polling date were Tuesday to Thursday. The latest YouGov was Wednesday Thursday and had SNP 51-22 ahead of Labour in Scotland but Labour 3 points ahead of Tories over UK. Conclusion never take less the average of five Scottish sub samples to show the trend . On that basis, if anything, the SNP lead is going up on both YouGove and Populus.

    I agee with Dair on Any Questions which I heard today. If that is the warmth of reception Salmond gets in London he must be pretty popular in Scotland.

    So the Tory poster with him as worst nightmare might just backfire?
    I think the reception he got from Joe Public at the Ryder cup is a better indication.
  • Mr. Moses, that was David Lammy. I thought it was an excellent spot of comedy.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    ComRes

    Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)

    Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.
    I'm disappointed. The PB Labour Obornes assured us that this week would prove a game changer. So far, the greatest week of Ed Miliband's political career hasn't registered one iota. What should worry Labour is that heaping opprobrium on business leaders and Tory peers is all Miliband has. If that doesn't do anything - and it doesn't look as if it is - what next?
    It has. EICIPM. Crossover now moved to....................... ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040

    GIN1138 said:

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Not bad for Dave. I thought his approval ratings might have taken a hit this week.

    What the public *REALLY* wants is David Cameron as PM of a Labour government...

    Wonder if he's ever thought about defecting? ;)
    Grand Coalition.
    Grand Army of the Republic
    To counter the increasing threat of the separatists SNP?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    surbiton said:

    ComRes

    Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)

    Only discernible trend seems to be UKIP falling back some.
    I'm disappointed. The PB Labour Obornes assured us that this week would prove a game changer. So far, the greatest week of Ed Miliband's political career hasn't registered one iota. What should worry Labour is that heaping opprobrium on business leaders and Tory peers is all Miliband has. If that doesn't do anything - and it doesn't look as if it is - what next?
    It has. EICIPM. Crossover now moved to....................... ?
    Glad you're happy with the prospect of a crap PM ;)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    IOS said:

    Rod is a funny guy.

    The last pope election was the best. He got very annoyed at someone on PB repeating who his backed candidate was as it may move the international betting markets. Each day brought more and more evidence of his man making a move.

    Turned out Rod had ruled out the guy that won at the very start for being to old.

    I said at the start it would be a surprise, and probably a non-European, from South America in particular. My fancied candidate didn't make it, and I actually tipped him in a guest article, so I don't follow this "got very annoyed" crap.

    I ruled out Bergoglio [and reported this at the time] not because he was too old, but because in my research I couldn't find a single photo of him smiling. I thought he was too bloody miserable to be elected!
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @IOS

    'Rod is a funny guy.'

    A funny guy that called the last GE spot on, you didn't get over it.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Sorry, 'Call me Dave' has an approval rating of -1%. What planet am I living on??
  • Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    TGOHF said:

    Ed behind Dave on education with Com Res.

    let that sink in....

    The one that isn't sinking in.

    Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.
    That was the week that was.
    How many times has Mr Manson come forward and said this was a game changing week for Ed. I'm getting old, but I do not think this was the first time.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.

    Anywhere?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)
    What had Labour drifted out to ?
    I'm averaged at just over 2.5
    Better than me I am 2.486 on that


    On next PM after Cameron 2.52 thank to TP (Low stakes yhough as no liquidity)
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TSE

    'Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.'

    As we are repeatedly told a terrific week for Ed.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Mr. Moses, that was David Lammy. I thought it was an excellent spot of comedy.

    Not in the least bit suprising to hear it was the Mastermind champ David Lammy who said that. His knowledge of the real world leaves a lot to be desired.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Morris_Dancer

    'Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.'

    JackW was a close second.
  • Mr. SE, we all have blind spots. It was harmless enough, and quite entertaining.

    Mr. H, can't recall everyone's predictions. Someone else may have gotten closer, but not many.

    On a lighter note, I only saw bits of the rugby today, but Joseph's a bright spark. Nice to see France playing properly in the second half.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    surbiton said:

    Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)
    What had Labour drifted out to ?
    EICIPM was at in excess of 6/4
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited February 2015
    The 41% "UKIP has some good ideas for how to run the country" tallies with the recent ComRes 'issues' index, 40% thought UKIP was the best party for immigration, 26% for the EU.

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    john_zims said:

    @Morris_Dancer

    'Mr. Zims, indeed. Mr. Crosby called the last General Election result far better than just about everyone else here.'

    JackW was a close second.

    Both have consistently said EICIPM is a non starter in GE2015

    I am after the crown
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    TGOHf

    My prediction is that Ed Miliband will be PM. The tories will be out of power and coming to terms with the disastrous leadership of David Cameron.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015

    The 41% "UKIP has some good ideas for how to run the country" tallies with the recent ComRes 'issues' index, 40% thought UKIP was the best party for immigration, 26% for the EU.

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384
    Tories should be pretty worried at those finding...Although they win on getting growth / reducing deficit, they lose on how any of those economic benefits would be spent.

    I always think that the Tories slogan of "long economic plan" is a very poor one...most people are selfish and want to know about them / their families, and that slogan doesn't really define how Tories plan has / would help them.
  • ComRes

    Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)

    Broken, sleazy, DODGY Tories on the slide?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Evening all, just head a rumour from Basil about one of the polls. He's off to top himself.
  • Mr. Owls, well, past performance is no guarantee of future success. I hope you don't take it amiss if I hope your effort to be king of the castle results only in the confirmation that you're a dirty rascal ;)
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    perdix said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Trident: One good thing that could come out of SNP holding the balance of power will be to put into touch for another 5 years any decision on Trident. After all, that is what the Lib Dems did in 2010.

    The SNP position is on Trident, not nuclear weapons ! Britain is still adequately protected by nuclear weapons, if we need them at all.

    Oops, I forgot we are a world power with 6 aircrafts bombing the hell out of IS in Iraq ! And, 2 aircraft carriers with aircrafts on them. The Harriers having been sold for scrap metal.

    The plural of aircraft is aircraft
    Absolutely correct, you sad Tory ! In fact, I meant to say, "2 aircraft carriers with NO aircraft on them."

    Thanks for pointing it out, Gunslinger !
    "2 aircraft with No aircraft on them". Thanks to Gordon Brown for letting contracts to build stuff whereby it is cheaper to build them than to cancel them. It's called "pork barrel" for the constituents.
    That, and a gaggle of Admirals, who thought as they signed the order, that they could plead for escort ships later, and it would be agreed to without question. Dimwits. Brown ran rings round them.
    Your point and that Perdex is perfectly valid. The timetabling of orders for carriers and aircraft is all down to Brown and Labour; and Brown and Labour sold the Sea Harriers in 2006 I think. Labour are also entirely responsible for ordering 66,000 tonne carriers which cannot fly conventional planes.
    The carriers were delayed and became more expensive because the defence budget was in a total and typical Labour mess.

    As far as ISIS is concerned we are more than adequately fulfilling our international treaty obligations and supporting our ally and are preventing genocide. A10 Warthogs BTW - relatively old technology - seem to be doing most damage by the USA.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Mr. Owls, well, past performance is no guarantee of future success. I hope you don't take it amiss if I hope your effort to be king of the castle results only in the confirmation that you're a dirty rascal ;)

    Could still be of course.

    Not looking bad for a newcomer though!

    Any F1 tips yet Mr Dancer?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Evening all, just head a rumour from Basil about one of the polls. He's off to top himself.

    Only Yougov left, and the Sunday Times poll tends to be good for Labour compared to the weekly average.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Usain Bolt to retire in 2017

    CNN news ticker
  • Mr. Owls, not other than the ones I offered pre-testing (which is always brave/stupid depending on how they turn out).

    For the record, they were:
    Rosberg for the title, 4.7, Hamilton for the title, 1.9 (Betfair).

    Ladbrokes:
    Small stake - Hamilton, 9, 14 or more wins (a record).
    Smaller stake - Mercedes, 17, to win every race.
    Even smaller stake - Alonso, 15, to win in Australia.

    Mercedes would need to screw up to lose their entire performance gap during a few months in the off-season. The Renault engine is looking a little below par, though Ferrari seem to have improved both the engine (in terms of both reliability and power) and their aerodynamic offering. Honda is still working out the gremlins, so it's a bit tricky to assess.

    Once me and Mr. Putney have our traditional chat about spread-betting I expect Grosjean and Maldonado to potentially offer the most value. Last year I got a few wrong [not tips, mind], but I was also spot on with Bottas scoring a lot, and the agreement [a rare moment] we had over Maldonado being a sell at something like 66 was also a nice forecast.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    philiph said:

    Evening all, just head a rumour from Basil about one of the polls. He's off to top himself.

    Only Yougov left, and the Sunday Times poll tends to be good for Labour compared to the weekly average.
    Never trust a squirrel I say, but he's not a happy goalpost carrier, I can tell you.

    http://i.imgur.com/11ZHp9I.jpg
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    The 41% "UKIP has some good ideas for how to run the country" tallies with the recent ComRes 'issues' index, 40% thought UKIP was the best party for immigration, 26% for the EU.

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/566581989059600384
    Tories should be pretty worried at those finding...Although they win on getting growth / reducing deficit, they lose on how any of those economic benefits would be spent.

    I always think that the Tories slogan of "long economic plan" is a very poor one...most people are selfish and want to know about them / their families, and that slogan doesn't really define how Tories plan has / would help them.
    I think the Tories are just trying to convince people that they do have a plan, rather than that they're just clueless muppets hoping things will turn out OK.

    ------

    UKIP's current slogan appears to be 'Believe in Britain'.

    http://www.ukip.org/believe_in_britain_together_we_can_do_great_things
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Moses_ said:

    Usain Bolt to retire in 2017

    CNN news ticker

    After the 2017 world championships in London.

    http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/31468990
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    Tot up subsamples for South East/East for UKIP maybe that will give the true picture.

    Fading elsewhere but v strong regional support in SE/E ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    perdix said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Trident: One good thing that could come out of SNP holding the balance of power will be to put into touch for another 5 years any decision on Trident. After all, that is what the Lib Dems did in 2010.

    The SNP position is on Trident, not nuclear weapons ! Britain is still adequately protected by nuclear weapons, if we need them at all.

    Oops, I forgot we are a world power with 6 aircrafts bombing the hell out of IS in Iraq ! And, 2 aircraft carriers with aircrafts on them. The Harriers having been sold for scrap metal.

    The plural of aircraft is aircraft
    Absolutely correct, you sad Tory ! In fact, I meant to say, "2 aircraft carriers with NO aircraft on them."

    Thanks for pointing it out, Gunslinger !
    "2 aircraft with No aircraft on them". Thanks to Gordon Brown for letting contracts to build stuff whereby it is cheaper to build them than to cancel them. It's called "pork barrel" for the constituents.
    That, and a gaggle of Admirals, who thought as they signed the order, that they could plead for escort ships later, and it would be agreed to without question. Dimwits. Brown ran rings round them.
    Your point and that Perdex is perfectly valid. The timetabling of orders for carriers and aircraft is all down to Brown and Labour; and Brown and Labour sold the Sea Harriers in 2006 I think. Labour are also entirely responsible for ordering 66,000 tonne carriers which cannot fly conventional planes.
    The carriers were delayed and became more expensive because the defence budget was in a total and typical Labour mess.

    As far as ISIS is concerned we are more than adequately fulfilling our international treaty obligations and supporting our ally and are preventing genocide. A10 Warthogs BTW - relatively old technology - seem to be doing most damage by the USA.
    What about the Harriers this government scrapped ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BetfairPredicts: Labour won a 66 majority in 2005 on 35.2%. Now, leading last 7 polls, averaging 34.6%, they're 17.5 for a majority. http://t.co/y9EVauw4Ot

    I think we can call that "The Ed Effect"
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    People loose their rag and get warnings.
    MikeK can quote - with every semblance of approval - 'Tommy Robinson' and ... all is well with the world.
    Sad times. Except we see where UKIP is coming from.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?
    OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favs
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    We know that the ComRes changed their methodology regarding the weighting for UKIP before their last poll, so we can expect some point loss from tis company.

    From this weekend, I expect that UKIP share will now start a gradual rise.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?
    OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favs
    Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Scott_P said:

    @BetfairPredicts: Labour won a 66 majority in 2005 on 35.2%. Now, leading last 7 polls, averaging 34.6%, they're 17.5 for a majority. http://t.co/y9EVauw4Ot

    I think we can call that "The Ed Effect"

    I wouldn't say the single reason that Labour are ahead in the last 7 polls is "The Ed Effect", though it has played some part in it obviously.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.
  • Part-ELBOW so far this week now inc. ComRes: Lab lead now 1.3% (same as final result last week).
    Meanwhile, LD lead over the Greens 1.4% (was 0.8% last week).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    Tot up subsamples for South East/East for UKIP maybe that will give the true picture.

    Fading elsewhere but v strong regional support in SE/E ?
    It does seem very UKIP friendly where I live and the surrounding areas... I am sure it is to do with the daily commute through the shitholes of East London that makes people feel that way... Also Romford has a lot of immigrants now thanks to the Council housing people from Stratford in the new flats next to Queens hospital.. its getting more and more vibrant and diverse

    I told the girl I have been seeing that I was a kipper and she commented how many houses in the posh part of Romford (Gidea Park) had UKIP signs/posters up so it seems lots of people are getting involved
  • MikeK said:

    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    We know that the ComRes changed their methodology regarding the weighting for UKIP before their last poll, so we can expect some point loss from tis company.

    From this weekend, I expect that UKIP share will now start a gradual rise.
    Wrong, it was opinium not ComRes
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.

    Nah, that was a disaster for Ed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.

    Well, UKIP did launch their campaign on Thursday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015

    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?
    OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favs
    Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?
    13-8 Great Grimsby
    11-4 Rotherham
    7-2 Dudley North
    6-1 Rother Valley
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?
    OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favs
    Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?
    Is it 13/8 Great Grimsby? Rotherham 11/4, Rother Valley 6s Telford 8s?

    The 11/8 UKIP to win a seat off labour w Lads is a great bet IMO
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.

    I read (Spectator I think) that UKIP were letting the two major parties rip into each other and deliberately taking a back seat for a while.. maybe they thought the squabbling over miniscule differences would play badly w the public.. doesn't seem to be a successful strategy so far, but a long way to go
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    @MikeK
    I've started reading a viking book series you might like, "The Oathsworn" by Robert Low.

    http://www.robert-low.com/oathswornseries.htm
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Pulpstar said:


    13-8 Great Grimsby
    11-4 Rotherham
    7-2 Dudley North
    6-1 Rother Valley

    isam said:




    Is it 13/8 Great Grimsby? Rotherham 11/4, Rother Valley 6s Telford 8s?

    The 11/8 UKIP to win a seat off labour w Lads is a great bet IMO

    Thanks chaps!

    I was asking with an eye on that 11/8 that Shadsy's got up..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    The polls do seem to be getting a bit worse for UKIP.. but the strange thing is the constituency betting has become more favourable, with Rochester and Castle Point going odds on since Wednesday.. I think that's six seats that UKIP are odds on in now (Thurrock, Clacton, Castle Point, Rochester, Boston and Thanet South, although you can still get 11/10 Rochester, and no one has UKIP favs there)

    Shadsy also has over 5.5 seats favourite now.. I think 17/10 over 6.5 looks a value bet.. but it is with Unibet I think so maybe difficult to get on

    What about Great Yarmouth and Great Grimsby ?
    OTOH about 6/4 11/8 ish there? Not odds on even if maybe favs
    Do you know UKIP's shortest odds in Lab seats?
    13-8 Great Grimsby
    11-4 Rotherham
    7-2 Dudley North
    6-1 Rother Valley
    Oh Dudders!! I had a score at 25s about a year ago I think forgot about that!

    Like Wolverhampton NE at a big price too (25s?)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Poll count February so far
    CON lead 2 polls
    CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
    LAB lead 15

    Not great reading for the Cons.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    It is the women of Britain who will put Ed in No.10
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Pulpstar said:


    13-8 Great Grimsby
    11-4 Rotherham
    7-2 Dudley North
    6-1 Rother Valley

    isam said:




    Is it 13/8 Great Grimsby? Rotherham 11/4, Rother Valley 6s Telford 8s?

    The 11/8 UKIP to win a seat off labour w Lads is a great bet IMO

    Thanks chaps!

    I was asking with an eye on that 11/8 that Shadsy's got up..
    It seems wrong off his own prices to me at first glance
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    A note on the Scottish subsample: *ahem*

    Scotland unweighted 151 -> Weighted 172

    SNP unweighted 49 -> 41 weighted.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386


    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Poll count February so far
    CON lead 2 polls
    CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
    LAB lead 15

    Not great reading for the Cons.

    Tick Tock. Tick Tock.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.

    I read (Spectator I think) that UKIP were letting the two major parties rip into each other and deliberately taking a back seat for a while.. maybe they thought the squabbling over miniscule differences would play badly w the public.. doesn't seem to be a successful strategy so far, but a long way to go
    UKIP poll numbers increased during election season in May 2013, and May 2014. Why should 2015 be different?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    surbiton said:

    It is the women of Britain who will put Ed in No.10
    Which figures are you looking at, I only see a 1% difference between the genders. Definitely MoE given the sample size.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Put through the Euro Corrector - Opinium and Comres have the Tories on 35.9%.

    The Euro Corrector is how wrongly both called the Tories in May 2014.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    john_zims said:

    @TSE

    'Dave and Ed are tied on who would be better on cracking down on tax avoidance and tax evasion.'

    As we are repeatedly told a terrific week for Ed.

    Frankly it IS a terrific week for Ed. Given the chance Ed spent 13 years doing nothing to crack down on tax avoidance. Given the chance Dave has spent 5 years cracking down on tax avoidance.
    Yet Ed scores level!
  • Mr. Dave, and Mr. K, you might be interested to know that the BBC has commissioned a series based on Bernard Cornwell's series about Anglo-Saxon England and the Vikings. If they have the attention to detail shown in Wolf Hall, it could be rather good. If they make it like Atlantis, it'll be atrocious.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795


    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Poll count February so far
    CON lead 2 polls
    CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
    LAB lead 15

    Not great reading for the Cons.

    Con leads coming through reliably from Ashcroft - the UK Rasmussen Reports.
  • Any prospect of a labour-snp coalition during the heat of the campaign in April will cause chaos in England with a sharp move to back the conservatives to prevent a constitutional crisis. I understand some English labour MPs are threatening to sit on the opposition benches if Ed Miliband goes anywhere near this proposition realising the anger that could befall them from their constituants
  • Pulpstar said:

    UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.

    With only YG/ST to come, UKIP now on 14.2% so far this week in ELBOW
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371


    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    Poll count February so far
    CON lead 2 polls
    CON-LAB level-pegging 2 polls
    LAB lead 15

    Not great reading for the Cons.

    Wash your mouth out. It's a disaster for Ed, it always is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP need to somehow get back on the news agenda, been all about Ed bashing the rich recently.

    I read (Spectator I think) that UKIP were letting the two major parties rip into each other and deliberately taking a back seat for a while.. maybe they thought the squabbling over miniscule differences would play badly w the public.. doesn't seem to be a successful strategy so far, but a long way to go
    UKIP poll numbers increased during election season in May 2013, and May 2014. Why should 2015 be different?
    Because this election matters.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Mr. Dave, and Mr. K, you might be interested to know that the BBC has commissioned a series based on Bernard Cornwell's series about Anglo-Saxon England and the Vikings. If they have the attention to detail shown in Wolf Hall, it could be rather good. If they make it like Atlantis, it'll be atrocious.

    The TV adaptions of Sharpe and Hornblower didn't really work very well. I think it's difficult to adapt these things on a budget. They call for an army of extras.

    That said, Vikings works well. And the battle scenes in Game of Thrones I think use computers to generate a convincing army.

    http://www.history.com/shows/vikings
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Any prospect of a labour-snp coalition during the heat of the campaign in April will cause chaos in England with a sharp move to back the conservatives to prevent a constitutional crisis. I understand some English labour MPs are threatening to sit on the opposition benches if Ed Miliband goes anywhere near this proposition realising the anger that could befall them from their constituants

    It won't be a coalition, I heard this on "Any Questions", it'll be a bill by bill arrangement.
This discussion has been closed.