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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson says that in past fortnight we’ve seen a dif

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    We can "expect" a 1 point Labour Lead I reckon.

    What the poll will actually be is another matter - could be anything from a 3 point Con lead to a 5 pt Labour lead.
    There's more than one poll tonight. ComRes and YouGov. Maybe more. The closer we get to the election the more polls will start to turn up in unexpected places.
  • Been getting on Lab cos of value but biggest worry isn't Miliband. Its Salmond. Hate figure down south. Gotta allow for possibility that electors in England will take fright. Could be last minute.

    Hence NoM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    Not if today's markets are any marker.
    Markets don't seem to have changed much since yesterday, still the same broad prices.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Apologies, but I was responding to him calling me a hypocritical shite. Is that level of abuse ok?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    We can "expect" a 1 point Labour Lead I reckon.

    What the poll will actually be is another matter - could be anything from a 3 point Con lead to a 5 pt Labour lead.
    There's more than one poll tonight. ComRes and YouGov. Maybe more. The closer we get to the election the more polls will start to turn up in unexpected places.
    At least three tonight

    ComRes
    YG
    Populus
  • Claims are that the gunmen were after Lars Vilks, who in 2007 drew an image of the Prophet as a dog on a traffic circle.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Can't see SeanT surviving to May...

  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    Not if today's markets are any marker.
    Markets don't seem to have changed much since yesterday, still the same broad prices.
    Lab have drifted out.
  • GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    The polls are
    ComRes IndyS/S Mirror
    Opinium Observer
    YouGov S Times

    Who knows?

    This evening there'll be a full polling round up at about 10pm - assuming we have all the details.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    We can "expect" a 1 point Labour Lead I reckon.

    What the poll will actually be is another matter - could be anything from a 3 point Con lead to a 5 pt Labour lead.
    There's more than one poll tonight. ComRes and YouGov. Maybe more. The closer we get to the election the more polls will start to turn up in unexpected places.
    At least three tonight

    ComRes
    YG
    Populus
    Who is doing Populus?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    Not if today's markets are any marker.
    Markets don't seem to have changed much since yesterday, still the same broad prices.
    Lab have drifted out.
    Labour Majority 18 £9.00
    £153.00

    I could now lay it off at 18.0 if I wanted to ?
  • GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    The polls are
    ComRes IndyS/S Mirror
    Opinium Observer
    YouGov S Times

    Who knows?

    This evening there'll be a full polling round up at about 10pm - assuming we have all the details.
    Oh soz. It's the three Mike says!
  • GIN1138 said:

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Can't see SeanT surviving to May...

    He can always multi-account like some other posters on here....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    The polls are
    ComRes IndyS/S Mirror
    Opinium Observer
    YouGov S Times

    Who knows?

    This evening there'll be a full polling round up at about 10pm - assuming we have all the details.
    Thanks Mike.

    So no Populus?

    I think on Monday we get ICM don't we? That will be enlightening as always...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Con 1.77/1.78 in most seats market is as you were too... And Ed is sub 2.5 for next PM markets, I don't see where the Labour drift is ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    Not if today's markets are any marker.
    Markets don't seem to have changed much since yesterday, still the same broad prices.
    Lab have drifted out.
    Labour Majority 18 £9.00
    £153.00

    I could now lay it off at 18.0 if I wanted to ?
    Yeah 16.5 earlier. May be nowt. Other day Lab drifted something stupid for no clear reason. They had a good poll.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015

    GIN1138 said:

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Can't see SeanT surviving to May...

    He can always multi-account like some other posters on here....
    Keep an eye out for 'Bobasean' and 'ThelastboyKnox'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    Not if today's markets are any marker.
    Markets don't seem to have changed much since yesterday, still the same broad prices.
    Lab have drifted out.
    Labour Majority 18 £9.00
    £153.00

    I could now lay it off at 18.0 if I wanted to ?
    Yeah 16.5 earlier. May be nowt. Other day Lab drifted something stupid for no clear reason. They had a good poll.
    Annoyed with myself that I didn't back Labour majority at 32.0 !
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    Referring to his father is not an answer certainly, but Dave surely had an interest in how his father became so successful?
    On the other hand, perhaps he had no interest in where the money came from, and the arrangements of the will?
    After all, the will would have been scrutinized by one of the leading exponents of tax avoidance schemes?
    Let's talk about Ed shall we?

    Ed got terribly upset when the affairs of a dead father were discussed. Why not follow his shining example?
    Why not instead talk about his mother? She's alive and Ed has already fingered her as the family tax avoider.

    She arranged the DoV within two years of Gordon describing them as abused loopholes to avoid IHT
    PB tories now attacking an 80 year old woman . There is no depths to the gutter they will sink to in the pursuit of partisan advantage .
    Everyone was blaming the Miliboys for the DoV until Ed revealed that his mother was the sole culprit. And it was only being discussed at all because weird Ed again revealed himself to be a massively hypocritical shit.

    Btw I am only one PB Tory.
    By everyone you mean hypocritical partisan such as yourself .
    Come one you drooling geriatric, you've had enough time to respond.

    How am I a hypocrite?

    Back it up or retract it.
    saddo said:

    Ed Miliband has called for a “root and branch” inquiry into the culture and practices of Mirror Trinity Group into potentially the most extensive phone hacking of any news organisation HMRC amid allegations it failed to act over HSBC’s links to tax avoidance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11413154/Ed-Miliband-calls-for-root-and-branch-inquiry-into-HMRC.html

    A speech packed with untruths.
    Miliband has a new strategy as Labour have no policies.

    1 Smear anyone whose not a left winger or union

    2 Ignore any facts

    3 Promise unlimited spending on anything you fancy funded by the magic money tree.

    Given the Tories are not responding so far all that well, he may win.
    Safe to say the PB Tories are getting rattled now that it has dawned on them that things may not be quite going according to plan!
    What's my annoyance at Senior Boobies baselessly calling me a hypocrite got to with that?
    Maybe the language you use to attack a regular poster?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So what are we expecting from tonight's polls?

    Tories down across the board but by how much?

    Not if today's markets are any marker.
    Markets don't seem to have changed much since yesterday, still the same broad prices.
    Lab have drifted out.
    Labour Majority 18 £9.00
    £153.00

    I could now lay it off at 18.0 if I wanted to ?
    Yeah 16.5 earlier. May be nowt. Other day Lab drifted something stupid for no clear reason. They had a good poll.
    Annoyed with myself that I didn't back Labour majority at 32.0 !
    Was a lesson for me too. Thought a horror poll was coming & missed most of the value. If MS is right about punters being over-confident on Cons then value is Lab. Still looks good price. Suppose SNP flatters to deceive and Lab only lose half up there? Majority very close.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    saddo said:

    Ed Miliband has called for a “root and branch” inquiry into the culture and practices of Mirror Trinity Group into potentially the most extensive phone hacking of any news organisation HMRC amid allegations it failed to act over HSBC’s links to tax avoidance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11413154/Ed-Miliband-calls-for-root-and-branch-inquiry-into-HMRC.html

    A speech packed with untruths.
    Miliband has a new strategy as Labour have no policies.

    1 Smear anyone whose not a left winger or union

    2 Ignore any facts

    3 Promise unlimited spending on anything you fancy funded by the magic money tree.

    Given the Tories are not responding so far all that well, he may win.
    This is not a new policy. It is their standard policy.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    OllyT said:



    What's my annoyance at Senior Boobies baselessly calling me a hypocrite got to with that?

    Maybe the language you use to attack a regular poster?
    He called me a hypocritical shite. Is that sort of language ok to attack me with?

    And how has my annoyance at that got anything to do with "PB Tories" being "rattled"?
  • More reasons to pile in to Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch (SNP currently 1/2), though I'm sure it's not a unique story.

    'Labour source says Cumbernauld seat loss would be a “humiliation”

    A LABOUR member in Cumbernauld has told Cumbernauld Media that the local party branch is “seriously struggling” to find support ahead of the UK General Election, in May.
    Speaking to Cumbernauld Media, the CLP member described how Labour faces “humiliation” from the SNP in May’s General Election.'

    https://archive.today/twL4H#selection-465.0-477.126
  • Wonder if we're gonna see some return of fire on Miliband from the Sundays? Henry Manson thinks he has come of age or something. Wisdom is proved right by her actions & think its too soon to say if this attack dog approach is right. Trouble is, are Labour squeaky clean? If you're going dish dirt you need to be sure your own kind are spotless.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Apologies, but I was responding to him calling me a hypocritical shite. Is that level of abuse ok?
    If you wish to post on here grow a thicker skin . I have been posting on here for 10 years now and in that time have been called very much worse nearly always are the culprits pb tories especially when their party are being rejected by the electorate .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    More reasons to pile in to Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch (SNP currently 1/2), though I'm sure it's not a unique story.

    'Labour source says Cumbernauld seat loss would be a “humiliation”

    A LABOUR member in Cumbernauld has told Cumbernauld Media that the local party branch is “seriously struggling” to find support ahead of the UK General Election, in May.
    Speaking to Cumbernauld Media, the CLP member described how Labour faces “humiliation” from the SNP in May’s General Election.'

    https://archive.today/twL4H#selection-465.0-477.126

    I've got a wheelbarrow on the SNP there already, my biggest unhedged bet of the election. Good to hear Labour is struggling there mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    I think there may be some out there who are concentrating very hard on Ed Miliband's affairs at the moment.

    Probably David as well. Whatever it takes to trash brand Miliband....
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Apologies, but I was responding to him calling me a hypocritical shite. Is that level of abuse ok?
    If you wish to post on here grow a thicker skin . I have been posting on here for 10 years now and in that time have been called very much worse nearly always are the culprits pb tories especially when their party are being rejected by the electorate .
    I didn't object to you calling me a shite until Mike scolded me for how I replied to you.

    I objected to you calling me a hypocrite. I still do.

    I think you ought to back that up or retract it.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Apologies, but I was responding to him calling me a hypocritical shite. Is that level of abuse ok?
    If you wish to post on here grow a thicker skin . I have been posting on here for 10 years now and in that time have been called very much worse nearly always are the culprits pb tories especially when their party are being rejected by the electorate .
    Oh. And I've been posting here nearly as long and have been called far worse myself.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    @JonnyJimmy

    Calling fellow a poster a " drooling geriatric" is not acceptable.

    We are tightening up moderation ahead of May 7th and comments like that will not be tolerated and lead to exclusion from site

    Apologies, but I was responding to him calling me a hypocritical shite. Is that level of abuse ok?
    If you wish to post on here grow a thicker skin . I have been posting on here for 10 years now and in that time have been called very much worse nearly always are the culprits pb tories especially when their party are being rejected by the electorate .
    How's the Lib-Dem's poll rating coming on? :D

  • The French ambassador, Francois Zimeray, has given a dramatic account of the attack to AFP news agency.

    Quote They fired on us from the outside. It was the same intention as (the January 7 attack on) Charlie Hebdo except they didn't manage to get in.

    Intuitively I would say there were at least 50 gunshots, and the police here are saying 200.

    Bullets went through the doors and everyone threw themselves to the floor. We managed to flee the room, and now we're staying inside because it's still dangerous.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Welcome to transnational Islamic inspired terrorism.

    Question is will the political leadership of Europe and the US have the balls to call a spade a spade or continue to play this politically correct game of talking. You cant tolerate of the intolerant who use, condone or equivocate over violence for their cause.

    Interestingly the Swedish security services seem to be heavily involved in this case as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    Y0kel said:

    Welcome to transnational Islamic inspired terrorism.

    Question is will the political leadership of Europe and the US have the balls to call a spade a spade or continue to play this politically correct game of talking. You cant tolerate of the intolerant who use, condone or equivocate over violence for their cause.

    Interestingly the Swedish security services seem to be heavily involved in this case as well.

    Our political leaders aren't going to call a spade a spade, they have elections to win. We will have the same nonsense that "this has nothing to do with Islam" and overstating the dangers of backlash...

    Only Sajid Javid (and Douglas Murray) actually called it as it is.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Nothing to do with islam though pic.twitter.com/OvU0wkYbAG

    — Tommy Robinson (@TRobinsonNewEra) February 14, 2015
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Ayaan Hirsi Ali
    Morris Swadiq
    Fleming Rose
    Gert Wilders
    Kurt Westergaard
    Carsten Juste

    and, the guy who cant catch a break..Salman Rushdie. All known targets, not just subject to threats, but known named Europeans who are targets.

    Stephane Charbonie and Lars Vilks were also named targets.

    How many of the above promoted violence? Yet you can see exactly who, if they were killed by Islamic extremists, certain sections of the so called European liberal, progressive nobodies would quite happily wring their hands over.



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    An Islamic school is "undermining British values" and "limits girls to knitting and sewing" in technology classes, Ofsted inspectors say.

    Despite some improvements, including the introduction of lessons in history and geography [I am sorry, you what....] said older girls do not have the same opportunities to study science

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-31452814

    This kinda of c##p needs to be clamped down immediately.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    An Islamic school is "undermining British values" and "limits girls to knitting and sewing" in technology classes, Ofsted inspectors say.

    Despite some improvements, including the introduction of lessons in history and geography [I am sorry, you what....] said older girls do not have the same opportunities to study science

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-31452814

    This kinda of c##p needs to be clamped down immediately.

    And yet Harman assumes women are still wedded to the kitchen table, hence the pink van tour, and Farage has made comments that could be construed as similarly sexist. Interesting times.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any polls tonight ?

    Will Eds latest envy ridden witch hunt pay dividends ?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    TGOHF said:

    Any polls tonight ?

    Will Eds latest envy ridden witch hunt pay dividends ?

    3 polls tonight - will Dave's pandering to the super rich and hedge fund managers cost him support amongst ordinary voters ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)
  • Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    Must be an outlier? Ed must have lost support due to Dodgy-Gate, surely?
  • An Islamic school is "undermining British values" and "limits girls to knitting and sewing" in technology classes, Ofsted inspectors say.

    Despite some improvements, including the introduction of lessons in history and geography [I am sorry, you what....] said older girls do not have the same opportunities to study science

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-31452814

    This kinda of c##p needs to be clamped down immediately.

    And yet Harman assumes women are still wedded to the kitchen table, hence the pink van tour, and Farage has made comments that could be construed as similarly sexist. Interesting times.
    I think the sad truth is that if you are militant enough the British establishment will appease you and give you special privileges, not enforcing the law when you break it and possibly passing special laws to protect you. The quid pro quo is that the British Establishment stay on their perch and keep their wealth. The other British people can suffer if needed.

    This is what islamic militants, feminists ie suffragettes, homosexual activists, Sinn Fein / IRA, various rabble rousing racial militants and the trade unions have in common.

    The most serious failure the establishment suffered in this regard was failing to get the Lord Halifax to replace Chamberlain and fudge an agreement with Hitler and instad having the outsider Churchill as PM with total war and much destruction of establishment wealth power and assets resulting.
  • Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    Must be an outlier? Ed must have lost support due to Dodgy-Gate, surely?
    Is the new trend the big two increasing, as the minor parties getting squeezed?

    More data needed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    TGOHF said:

    Any polls tonight ?

    Will Eds latest envy ridden witch hunt pay dividends ?

    3 polls tonight - will Dave's pandering to the super rich and hedge fund managers cost him support amongst ordinary voters ?
    No sign of it from Opinium.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Must be an outlier - Cameron must have lost support due to Dodgy-gate, surely?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    UKIP and the Greens finding it harder to hold their soft vote, it seems from recent polls.
  • Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015
  • The fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday inclusive
  • Y0kel said:

    Welcome to transnational Islamic inspired terrorism.

    Nothing new - 9/11? Bali 2002? Madrid 2004? London 2005? Mumbai 2008?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Labour and SNP both on 34% in Scotland.... Hmmmmm....
  • Labour and SNP both on 34% in Scotland.... Hmmmmm....

    Broken sleazy Nats on the slide?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Not bad for Dave. I thought his approval ratings might have taken a hit this week.

    What the public *REALLY* wants is David Cameron as PM of a Labour government...

    Wonder if he's ever thought about defecting? ;)
  • Greens upweighted? That's... unusual.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Trident: One good thing that could come out of SNP holding the balance of power will be to put into touch for another 5 years any decision on Trident. After all, that is what the Lib Dems did in 2010.

    The SNP position is on Trident, not nuclear weapons ! Britain is still adequately protected by nuclear weapons, if we need them at all.

    Oops, I forgot we are a world power with 6 aircrafts bombing the hell out of IS in Iraq ! And, 2 aircraft carriers with aircrafts on them. The Harriers having been sold for scrap metal.

    The plural of aircraft is aircraft
    Absolutely correct, you sad Tory ! In fact, I meant to say, "2 aircraft carriers with NO aircraft on them."

    Thanks for pointing it out, Gunslinger !
    "2 aircraft with No aircraft on them". Thanks to Gordon Brown for letting contracts to build stuff whereby it is cheaper to build them than to cancel them. It's called "pork barrel" for the constituents.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Must be an outlier - Cameron must have lost support due to Dodgy-gate, surely?

    Or it's already been priced in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Labour and SNP both on 34% in Scotland.... Hmmmmm....

    Broken sleazy Nats on the slide?
    Heroic Ed Miliband must be a mighty force north of the Border. That, or it looks a bit of an outlier....
  • UKIP now trending sub 15%. Ladbrokes continue to offer them at 7/4 to win between 10% - 15% of the UK vote. Looks like value to me.
    DYOR.
  • Greens upweighted? That's... unusual.
    Certainly is.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Not bad for Dave. I thought his approval ratings might have taken a hit this week.

    What the public *REALLY* wants is David Cameron as PM of a Labour government...

    Wonder if he's ever thought about defecting? ;)
    Grand Coalition.
  • Opinium, YouGov and which other poll tonight?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Set up for a great finish in Ireland....
  • Opinium, YouGov and which other poll tonight?

    ComRes online at 7.30pm
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tories level with Labour in Wales
    Labour level with Tories in England
    Labour level with SNP in Scotland.

    Don't believe any of them.
  • Including Opinium, part-ELBOW so far this week, Labour lead 1.2%

    Lab on 33.8%
    Con on 32.6%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    chestnut said:

    Tories level with Labour in Wales
    Labour level with Tories in England
    Labour level with SNP in Scotland.

    Don't believe any of them.

    Agree - ThingsThat Make You Go Hmmmmmmmmmm...
  • chestnut said:

    Tories level with Labour in Wales
    Labour level with Tories in England
    Labour level with SNP in Scotland.

    Don't believe any of them.

    Back in 2009, there was a Populus poll, which was I think around a 12% Tory lead which was in line with all the other polls.

    When you looked at the sub-samples, had the Tories in the lead in Scotland and the North of England, and Lab ahead in the South of England.

    Sometimes these subsample quirks happen.
  • Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    Must be an outlier? Ed must have lost support due to Dodgy-Gate, surely?

    More likely than any great swings in actual poll numbers is the entrenching of votes on both sides. We have seen it here - dislike of the other side on both sides is much more palpable than it has been. There must be an election on the way.

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Comparable PM approval ratings to MORI.

    The L&N model suggests close to a Tory majority.
  • Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    Must be an outlier? Ed must have lost support due to Dodgy-Gate, surely?
    Is the new trend the big two increasing, as the minor parties getting squeezed?

    More data needed.
    Long term trend is LDs and UKIP down, Greens up.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564030761100402689
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    perdix said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Trident: One good thing that could come out of SNP holding the balance of power will be to put into touch for another 5 years any decision on Trident. After all, that is what the Lib Dems did in 2010.

    The SNP position is on Trident, not nuclear weapons ! Britain is still adequately protected by nuclear weapons, if we need them at all.

    Oops, I forgot we are a world power with 6 aircrafts bombing the hell out of IS in Iraq ! And, 2 aircraft carriers with aircrafts on them. The Harriers having been sold for scrap metal.

    The plural of aircraft is aircraft
    Absolutely correct, you sad Tory ! In fact, I meant to say, "2 aircraft carriers with NO aircraft on them."

    Thanks for pointing it out, Gunslinger !
    "2 aircraft with No aircraft on them". Thanks to Gordon Brown for letting contracts to build stuff whereby it is cheaper to build them than to cancel them. It's called "pork barrel" for the constituents.
    That, and a gaggle of Admirals, who thought as they signed the order, that they could plead for escort ships later, and it would be agreed to without question. Dimwits. Brown ran rings round them.
  • perdix said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Trident: One good thing that could come out of SNP holding the balance of power will be to put into touch for another 5 years any decision on Trident. After all, that is what the Lib Dems did in 2010.

    The SNP position is on Trident, not nuclear weapons ! Britain is still adequately protected by nuclear weapons, if we need them at all.

    Oops, I forgot we are a world power with 6 aircrafts bombing the hell out of IS in Iraq ! And, 2 aircraft carriers with aircrafts on them. The Harriers having been sold for scrap metal.

    The plural of aircraft is aircraft
    Absolutely correct, you sad Tory ! In fact, I meant to say, "2 aircraft carriers with NO aircraft on them."

    Thanks for pointing it out, Gunslinger !
    "2 aircraft with No aircraft on them". Thanks to Gordon Brown for letting contracts to build stuff whereby it is cheaper to build them than to cancel them. It's called "pork barrel" for the constituents.
    That, and a gaggle of Admirals, who thought as they signed the order, that they could plead for escort ships later, and it would be agreed to without question. Dimwits. Brown ran rings round them.
    A far cry from HMS Dreadnought being laid down and completed within a year or so.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Opinum poll for the Observer

    Con 33 (+1) Lab 35 (+1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 14 (-1) Greens 6 (-2)

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)
  • GIN1138 said:

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Not bad for Dave. I thought his approval ratings might have taken a hit this week.

    What the public *REALLY* wants is David Cameron as PM of a Labour government...

    Wonder if he's ever thought about defecting? ;)
    Grand Coalition.
    Grand Army of the Republic
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2015
    Well Labour have not really got any noticeable boost from the last week, BUT at this point in the electoral cycle, any week with no movement is essentially a small win for Labour.

    Their "firewall" is still incredibly small though, so they're going to have to keep proactive right up until May to hold onto the 33-35% they currently have. They can't afford any more drifts into inertia or allow themselves to get trapped into an unwinnable dutch auction about spending cuts again.

    The Tories still have a very strong chance of getting most seats, but for them to get a majority (which I thought was very real chance a while ago), they would probably be having to establish consistent leads by now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    GIN1138 said:

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Not bad for Dave. I thought his approval ratings might have taken a hit this week.

    What the public *REALLY* wants is David Cameron as PM of a Labour government...

    Wonder if he's ever thought about defecting? ;)
    Grand Coalition.
    Grand Army of the Republic
    Dave loves democracy. He loves the Republic....
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Another day down, another day closer to Ed being PM.

    Tories need to start gambling big. They are heading for defeat.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Roger said:

    Yesterday I semi jokingly said Cameron doesn't have to worry about the voters he has to worry about the mob with pitchforks.....

    Today on Any Questions I've rarely heard more raw anger. The public are incensed. Osborne's plan-getting a bunch of billionaires to say Labour wouldn't govern in their interests-was lunatic from the word go. Then to allow his party treasurer-Hedge fund donor and billionaire Lord Fink-threatening to sue was to pour kerosene on it.

    The two big losers will be the Tories and UKIP. Both who look like they're on the wrong side of this very clear line. The next few polls will be interesting

    Funny. I heard it too, and as much anger was directed at Salmond and Harman as anyone else.

    Anna Soubry's good isn't she?
    You're kidding. Salmond had a wonderful reception getting by far the biggest cheers and the audience seemed to have a genuine appreciation for his humour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    Roger said:

    Yesterday I semi jokingly said Cameron doesn't have to worry about the voters he has to worry about the mob with pitchforks.....

    Today on Any Questions I've rarely heard more raw anger. The public are incensed. Osborne's plan-getting a bunch of billionaires to say Labour wouldn't govern in their interests-was lunatic from the word go. Then to allow his party treasurer-Hedge fund donor and billionaire Lord Fink-threatening to sue was to pour kerosene on it.

    The two big losers will be the Tories and UKIP. Both who look like they're on the wrong side of this very clear line. The next few polls will be interesting

    Funny. I heard it too, and as much anger was directed at Salmond and Harman as anyone else.

    Anna Soubry's good isn't she?
    You're kidding. Salmond had a wonderful reception getting by far the biggest cheers and the audience seemed to have a genuine appreciation for his humour.
    Harriet was tied up in knots over trident and Labour's position on it.
  • IOS said:

    Another day down, another day closer to Ed being PM.

    Tories need to start gambling big. They are heading for defeat.

    The budget is on March 18th. The situation does not merit Tory panic this side of the budget. Afterwards? Perhaps.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Opinium Approval ratings

    David Cameron maintains his lead as the major party leader with the highest net approval rating. The Prime Minister is on -1% versus -29% for Labour leader Ed Miliband, -40% for Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and -21% for UKIP leader Nigel Farage.
    This is the highest score for David Cameron for three years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-10th-february-2015

    Not bad for Dave. I thought his approval ratings might have taken a hit this week.

    What the public *REALLY* wants is David Cameron as PM of a Labour government...

    Wonder if he's ever thought about defecting? ;)
    Grand Coalition.
    Grand Army of the Republic
    Dave loves democracy. He loves the Republic....
    "The attack on my donors has left me scarred and deformed. But I assure you, my resolve has never been stronger!"
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)

    Nor is there a Labour bounce.

    So, are we to conclude that the topic is a bit of a non-event with the public?

    After all, we've had five years of banks and taxes, and no one seems to care.


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited February 2015
    chestnut said:

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)

    Nor is there a Labour bounce.

    So, are we to conclude that the topic is a bit of a non-event with the public?

    After all, we've had five years of banks and taxes, and no one seems to care.


    Labour consistently polling above their 2010 level, Tories consistently polling below their 2010 level.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Danny565 said:

    Well Labour have not really got any noticeable boost from the last week, BUT at this point in the electoral cycle, any week with no movement is essentially a small win for Labour.

    Their "firewall" is still incredibly small though, so they're going to have to keep proactive right up until May to hold onto the 33-35% they currently have. They can't afford any more drifts into inertia or allow themselves to get trapped into an unwinnable dutch auction about spending cuts again.

    The Tories still have a very strong chance of getting most seats, but for them to get a majority (which I thought was very real chance a while ago), they would probably be having to establish consistent leads by now.

    Labour have already fired their big rockets - the NHS and rich baby-eating Tory bastards.

    The Tories have barely lit any sparklers yet.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    chestnut said:

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)

    Nor is there a Labour bounce.

    So, are we to conclude that the topic is a bit of a non-event with the public?

    After all, we've had five years of banks and taxes, and no one seems to care.


    Labour care (which isn't very useful)
    Tories know how to fix it (which is very useful)
  • chestnut said:

    EICIPM will rue the day he mentioned tax avoidance Tory bounce not in evidence yet/

    Todays Opinium = EICIPM (Betfair in to 2.26)

    Nor is there a Labour bounce.

    So, are we to conclude that the topic is a bit of a non-event with the public?

    After all, we've had five years of banks and taxes, and no one seems to care.


    Labour consistently polling above their 2010 level, Tories consistently polling below their 2010 level.
    Yeah but that's cos the parties as opposition and government switched around 2010 to 2015.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited February 2015



    Labour consistently polling above their 2010 level, Tories consistently polling below their 2010 level.

    Labour are polling below the numbers they were polling before Ed took over, Sunil.

    He has made zero progress.

    And the Tory numbers went down after the 2012 budget.

    That is the moment that the transfer to UKIP began in earnest.

    The Tory issue is the UKIP defections, not Labour.

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    More reasons to pile in to Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch (SNP currently 1/2), though I'm sure it's not a unique story.

    'Labour source says Cumbernauld seat loss would be a “humiliation”

    A LABOUR member in Cumbernauld has told Cumbernauld Media that the local party branch is “seriously struggling” to find support ahead of the UK General Election, in May.
    Speaking to Cumbernauld Media, the CLP member described how Labour faces “humiliation” from the SNP in May’s General Election.'

    https://archive.today/twL4H#selection-465.0-477.126

    The best quote from the article :-1:

    "“Most voters see this as being political opportunism; there’s an election coming up and we look set to lose heavily, therefore people see our rigorous campaigning as us trying to save the jobs of people like Gregg McClymont.”"

    So basically a Labour hack is admitting that the electorate is clued up enough to recognise that campaigning by Labour at this point (perhaps the only campaigning they've ever seen from Labour for a Westminster election) looks exactly like what it is - desperate fire fighting.

    This shows how truly fucked Labour are. Even campaigning will only make things worse.

    :smile:
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Boston getting serious snow again tomorrow. Wind chills down to -25 deg.

    WE are getting 3 inches on Monday!!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Dair said:

    More reasons to pile in to Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch (SNP currently 1/2), though I'm sure it's not a unique story.

    'Labour source says Cumbernauld seat loss would be a “humiliation”

    A LABOUR member in Cumbernauld has told Cumbernauld Media that the local party branch is “seriously struggling” to find support ahead of the UK General Election, in May.
    Speaking to Cumbernauld Media, the CLP member described how Labour faces “humiliation” from the SNP in May’s General Election.'

    https://archive.today/twL4H#selection-465.0-477.126

    The best quote from the article :-1:

    "“Most voters see this as being political opportunism; there’s an election coming up and we look set to lose heavily, therefore people see our rigorous campaigning as us trying to save the jobs of people like Gregg McClymont.”"

    So basically a Labour hack is admitting that the electorate is clued up enough to recognise that campaigning by Labour at this point (perhaps the only campaigning they've ever seen from Labour for a Westminster election) looks exactly like what it is - desperate fire fighting.

    This shows how truly fucked Labour are. Even campaigning will only make things worse.

    :smile:
    Takes a heart of stone..etc
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tim_B said:

    Boston getting serious snow again tomorrow. Wind chills down to -25 deg.

    WE are getting 3 inches on Monday!!!!

    Lincolnshire is a very cold place to live!
  • Good evening, everyone.

    Saddened and disturbed to hear of the latest murderous insanity, as at least one man's dead in a shooting at a free speech debate in Copenhagen.

    Mr. B, rare to see a chap get all excited by the prospect of 3".
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Danny565 said:

    Well Labour have not really got any noticeable boost from the last week, BUT at this point in the electoral cycle, any week with no movement is essentially a small win for Labour.

    Their "firewall" is still incredibly small though, so they're going to have to keep proactive right up until May to hold onto the 33-35% they currently have. They can't afford any more drifts into inertia or allow themselves to get trapped into an unwinnable dutch auction about spending cuts again.

    The Tories still have a very strong chance of getting most seats, but for them to get a majority (which I thought was very real chance a while ago), they would probably be having to establish consistent leads by now.

    Labour have already fired their big rockets - the NHS and rich baby-eating Tory bastards.

    The Tories have barely lit any sparklers yet.
    Now you are down to just hope !
  • Screaming Eagle/Dair

    Scotland Sub Samples.

    The Opinium polling date were Tuesday to Thursday. The latest YouGov was Wednesday Thursday and had SNP 51-22 ahead of Labour in Scotland but Labour 3 points ahead of Tories over UK. Conclusion never take less the average of five Scottish sub samples to show the trend . On that basis, if anything, the SNP lead is going up on both YouGove and Populus.

    I agee with Dair on Any Questions which I heard today. If that is the warmth of reception Salmond gets in London he must be pretty popular in Scotland.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    edited February 2015
    tortured analogy in the original post (albeit ironically beyond the average punter's touch during this, er, cost of living crisis)
  • ComRes

    Lab 34% (0), Con 32% (-1), UKIP 16% (-2), Lib Dem 7% (0), Greens 4% (+1)
  • Tim_B said:

    Boston getting serious snow again tomorrow. Wind chills down to -25 deg.

    WE are getting 3 inches on Monday!!!!

    Imagine how bad it would be if we didn't have global warming.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    Well Labour have not really got any noticeable boost from the last week, BUT at this point in the electoral cycle, any week with no movement is essentially a small win for Labour.

    Their "firewall" is still incredibly small though, so they're going to have to keep proactive right up until May to hold onto the 33-35% they currently have. They can't afford any more drifts into inertia or allow themselves to get trapped into an unwinnable dutch auction about spending cuts again.

    The Tories still have a very strong chance of getting most seats, but for them to get a majority (which I thought was very real chance a while ago), they would probably be having to establish consistent leads by now.

    Labour have already fired their big rockets - the NHS and rich baby-eating Tory bastards.

    The Tories have barely lit any sparklers yet.
    Now you are down to just hope !
    Two words. Economy. Budget.

This discussion has been closed.