Not sure it will be Reform vs Geeen. Reform likely to come fourth in wards in London in May and I've not seen any polling or evidence that suggests Laila Cunningham is surging as a candidate beyond her just being on the telly all the time.
Have the Tories even found a candidate yet? They risk getting lift behind in this race.
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Tories haven't selected yet but its two years off. Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Reform will still be making gains. That they aren't as good as elsewhere may not matter. She'll still be able to look like a winner enough.
I think right of centre Londoners will still gravitate to the Con candidate. Time will tell.
Depends on who it is, the last one was an idiot
Millions of Tories in London, there have to be some good ones?
Coe or Cleverly in front seat
Seb Coe is a lot older IRL than in most people's memories of him winning gold medals or even opening the Olympics, and in two years' time, he will be two years older.
I doubt Seb Coe would be the ideal candidate now and Cleverly may have loftier ambitions.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
Coe would be ideal if we shift to STV to get LD preferences v the Labour candidate in a final 2 (any Tory candidate would get Reform preferences against Labour or the Greens anyway). Coe is also respected across London for his work on the London 2012 Olympics and would be a competent Mayor.
Cleverly still has his eye on being Tory leader if Kemi falters in May, if she gets through that though with the Tories second on NEV then Cleverly will start to look towards London 2028. IDS would not win LD preferences like Coe could, he would unite the right and squeeze Reform a bit but still lose to Labour in any STV final round
The Moscow–Tehran axis is collapsing before our eyes.
It has been confirmed that Iran did in fact appeal to russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow — who could be surprised — resorted to legal sophistry: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a situation that does not trigger the collective defense clause.
Iran reportedly asked russia to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even turned off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles — in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an “ally until the first serious challenge.” Iranian elites — especially the pragmatic wing — are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe. https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028202702443094317
And a MAGA religion one. A white evangelical Pastor (Rt Rev Robert Schenk) who had run an organisation aiming to place Supreme Court judges in place who were against abortion, going back to the Reagan supporting Christian Right, and how the appearance of Donald Trump as Guest of Honour at Pat Robertson's 80th birthday ("they were both in the billionaires club after Robertson sold his TV station") in 2011 eventually lead him to question his movement.
He is interviewed on a podcast called "Native Land Pod" (which is black evangelical, essentially, afaics - it is a new one on me) about how came to his "Road to Damascus".
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Come on, this is a tiny sub sample and I didn’t think we played those games!
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
What do you mean 'come one?' Every poll has Reform polling far worse in London than they do in the rest of the UK.
Even that Savanta poll you reference was taken at a time Reform were polling 28% to 33% UK wide so 21% in the capital is a pathetic score for Farage's party by comparison. Given the Tories have closed the gap with Reform since then a Labour v Tory Mayoral election with a well known and respected Tory candidate like Coe would be very possible
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green or Labour Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan or another Labour candidate on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Has is it been confirmed that they are moving away from FPTP again?
The Moscow–Tehran axis is collapsing before our eyes.
It has been confirmed that Iran did in fact appeal to russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow — who could be surprised — resorted to legal sophistry: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a situation that does not trigger the collective defense clause.
Iran reportedly asked russia to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even turned off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles — in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an “ally until the first serious challenge.” Iranian elites — especially the pragmatic wing — are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe. https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028202702443094317
BREAKING: Russia will not assist Iran under the allied treaty because it was signed with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - “and where is he now?” says Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
The Moscow–Tehran axis is collapsing before our eyes.
It has been confirmed that Iran did in fact appeal to russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow — who could be surprised — resorted to legal sophistry: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a situation that does not trigger the collective defense clause.
Iran reportedly asked russia to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even turned off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles — in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an “ally until the first serious challenge.” Iranian elites — especially the pragmatic wing — are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe. https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028202702443094317
It’s shame that one.
Some of us really wanted Russia to engage US and Israeli assets directly, on a FAFO basis.
Sadly Putin is many things but not totally stupid. He knows which is his war and which is someone else’s war - and he has more than enough problems with his own war at the moment! Unfortunately for him, his international ‘friends’ are quickly realising the same. Iran has no friends at all - not even Qatar any more, after the regime just bombed Doha.
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Come on, this is a tiny sub sample and I didn’t think we played those games!
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
What do you mean 'come one?' Every poll has Reform polling far worse in London than they do in the rest of the UK.
Even that Savanta poll you reference was taken at a time Reform were polling 28% to 33% UK wide so 21% in the capital is a pathetic score for Farage's party by comparison. Given the Tories have closed the gap with Reform since then a Labour v Tory Mayoral election with a well known and respected Tory candidate like Coe would be very possible
The Savanta Mayoral polling shows the gap any “centre right” candidate has to close in London. Lab/Green 45%, Con/Ref 39% so that candidate had to persuade a lot of people to put them as their second preference to win.
I did comment earlier I thought the top two candidates in the 2028 election would be the Labour and Conservative representatives.
The May local elections will be much more informative and we also have the GLA elections to consider. Could either Reform or Green win a GLA constituency ?
The Moscow–Tehran axis is collapsing before our eyes.
It has been confirmed that Iran did in fact appeal to russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow — who could be surprised — resorted to legal sophistry: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a situation that does not trigger the collective defense clause.
Iran reportedly asked russia to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even turned off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles — in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an “ally until the first serious challenge.” Iranian elites — especially the pragmatic wing — are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe. https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028202702443094317
This is another reason I feel ambivalent about the current action, despite it's clear illegality.
If this weakens the Russia - China - Iran - NK alliance it might have a net positive effect on global security.
Though didn't Iran thank Russia for support at the UN?
Hopefully the Iranians will retaliate against the Russians by refusing to supply them with drones any more (which they need for their own uses anyway).
Hopefully the Iranians will retaliate against the Russians by refusing to supply them with drones any more (which they need for their own uses anyway).
I think the last ship of those has sailed. But Russia has already set up manufacturing back home with Iranian assistance anyway.
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Come on, this is a tiny sub sample and I didn’t think we played those games!
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
What do you mean 'come one?' Every poll has Reform polling far worse in London than they do in the rest of the UK.
Even that Savanta poll you reference was taken at a time Reform were polling 28% to 33% UK wide so 21% in the capital is a pathetic score for Farage's party by comparison. Given the Tories have closed the gap with Reform since then a Labour v Tory Mayoral election with a well known and respected Tory candidate like Coe would be very possible
If the tories can convince a cross over appeal big name to stand they would expect to get second and plausible chance of winning. But they havent been able to find such a candidate since Bozo.
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
Not sure it will be Reform vs Geeen. Reform likely to come fourth in wards in London in May and I've not seen any polling or evidence that suggests Laila Cunningham is surging as a candidate beyond her just being on the telly all the time.
Have the Tories even found a candidate yet? They risk getting lift behind in this race.
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Tories haven't selected yet but its two years off. Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Reform will still be making gains. That they aren't as good as elsewhere may not matter. She'll still be able to look like a winner enough.
I think right of centre Londoners will still gravitate to the Con candidate. Time will tell.
Depends on who it is, the last one was an idiot
Millions of Tories in London, there have to be some good ones?
Coe or Cleverly in front seat
Seb Coe is a lot older IRL than in most people's memories of him winning gold medals or even opening the Olympics, and in two years' time, he will be two years older.
I doubt Seb Coe would be the ideal candidate now and Cleverly may have loftier ambitions.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
Coe will be 71 and IDS 74 by the election. The Conservatives already are seen as the Pensioners Trade Union. Haven't they anyone of working age?
Ginger Spice. Could run on the flags theme as well.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
ATC in Georgia and Azerbaijan are having a busy few days at the moment. There’s a very narrow corridor to thread between all the closed airspace.
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green or Labour Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan or another Labour candidate on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
If the Greens can find a candidate as appealing as 'the plumber' they should stroll it in London. I've had texts from friends who have had it with a labour. Starmer is losing them votes at an uncontrollable rate. I hear Zack's latest is support for Scottish independence. If they could include a rejoin plus schengen plus the Euro I'd be getting fitted up with a kilt as I type
To be fair, never had problems receiving stuff from Evri.
There's another firm... starts with a Y. They once managed to deliver a big load of dog food to the wrong place (and by 'wrong' not 'next door' but 'six houses away'). It was marvellous fun carrying that back to the house.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
That is what people are getting at when they say neither side wants peace but both sides want victory.
Absolutely!
And one side should get it, and we should be on their side.
Not sure it will be Reform vs Geeen. Reform likely to come fourth in wards in London in May and I've not seen any polling or evidence that suggests Laila Cunningham is surging as a candidate beyond her just being on the telly all the time.
Have the Tories even found a candidate yet? They risk getting lift behind in this race.
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Tories haven't selected yet but its two years off. Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Reform will still be making gains. That they aren't as good as elsewhere may not matter. She'll still be able to look like a winner enough.
I think right of centre Londoners will still gravitate to the Con candidate. Time will tell.
Depends on who it is, the last one was an idiot
Millions of Tories in London, there have to be some good ones?
Coe or Cleverly in front seat
Seb Coe is a lot older IRL than in most people's memories of him winning gold medals or even opening the Olympics, and in two years' time, he will be two years older.
I doubt Seb Coe would be the ideal candidate now and Cleverly may have loftier ambitions.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
Coe will be 71 and IDS 74 by the election. The Conservatives already are seen as the Pensioners Trade Union. Haven't they anyone of working age?
Ginger Spice. Could run on the flags theme as well.
Not sure it will be Reform vs Geeen. Reform likely to come fourth in wards in London in May and I've not seen any polling or evidence that suggests Laila Cunningham is surging as a candidate beyond her just being on the telly all the time.
Have the Tories even found a candidate yet? They risk getting lift behind in this race.
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Tories haven't selected yet but its two years off. Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Reform will still be making gains. That they aren't as good as elsewhere may not matter. She'll still be able to look like a winner enough.
I think right of centre Londoners will still gravitate to the Con candidate. Time will tell.
Depends on who it is, the last one was an idiot
Millions of Tories in London, there have to be some good ones?
Coe or Cleverly in front seat
Seb Coe is a lot older IRL than in most people's memories of him winning gold medals or even opening the Olympics, and in two years' time, he will be two years older.
I doubt Seb Coe would be the ideal candidate now and Cleverly may have loftier ambitions.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
Coe will be 71 and IDS 74 by the election. The Conservatives already are seen as the Pensioners Trade Union. Haven't they anyone of working age?
Ginger Spice. Could run on the flags theme as well.
Not sure it will be Reform vs Geeen. Reform likely to come fourth in wards in London in May and I've not seen any polling or evidence that suggests Laila Cunningham is surging as a candidate beyond her just being on the telly all the time.
Have the Tories even found a candidate yet? They risk getting lift behind in this race.
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Tories haven't selected yet but its two years off. Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Reform will still be making gains. That they aren't as good as elsewhere may not matter. She'll still be able to look like a winner enough.
I think right of centre Londoners will still gravitate to the Con candidate. Time will tell.
Depends on who it is, the last one was an idiot
Millions of Tories in London, there have to be some good ones?
Coe or Cleverly in front seat
Seb Coe is a lot older IRL than in most people's memories of him winning gold medals or even opening the Olympics, and in two years' time, he will be two years older.
I doubt Seb Coe would be the ideal candidate now and Cleverly may have loftier ambitions.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
Coe will be 71 and IDS 74 by the election. The Conservatives already are seen as the Pensioners Trade Union. Haven't they anyone of working age?
Ginger Spice. Could run on the flags theme as well.
Liz Truss could run.
If they want someone to run, they should definitely go for Seb.
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
I have decided that a short layover in a long distance flight is preferable, you get to walk around for a bit and it breaks the journey. The worst bit about a longhaul flight is sitting in the same position for 14 hours. So I was quite happy to book via Doha as it was a good price too. Oh well, all my hotels are on free cancellation and I haven't paid foir any local transport yet, so I can just cancel if necessary - it depends on what flights are available at short notice if and when Qatar do cancel.
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Come on, this is a tiny sub sample and I didn’t think we played those games!
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
What do you mean 'come one?' Every poll has Reform polling far worse in London than they do in the rest of the UK.
Even that Savanta poll you reference was taken at a time Reform were polling 28% to 33% UK wide so 21% in the capital is a pathetic score for Farage's party by comparison. Given the Tories have closed the gap with Reform since then a Labour v Tory Mayoral election with a well known and respected Tory candidate like Coe would be very possible
The Savanta Mayoral polling shows the gap any “centre right” candidate has to close in London. Lab/Green 45%, Con/Ref 39% so that candidate had to persuade a lot of people to put them as their second preference to win.
I did comment earlier I thought the top two candidates in the 2028 election would be the Labour and Conservative representatives.
The May local elections will be much more informative and we also have the GLA elections to consider. Could either Reform or Green win a GLA constituency ?
Havering/Redbridge and Bexley/Bromley will presumably be where they target. The former the better of the two? I think Bromley could just about save the blues in the latter
And a MAGA religion one. A white evangelical Pastor (Rt Rev Robert Schenk) who had run an organisation aiming to place Supreme Court judges in place who were against abortion, going back to the Reagan supporting Christian Right, and how the appearance of Donald Trump as Guest of Honour at Pat Robertson's 80th birthday ("they were both in the billionaires club after Robertson sold his TV station") in 2011 eventually lead him to question his movement.
He is interviewed on a podcast called "Native Land Pod" (which is black evangelical, essentially, afaics - it is a new one on me) about how came to his "Road to Damascus".
Not sure it will be Reform vs Geeen. Reform likely to come fourth in wards in London in May and I've not seen any polling or evidence that suggests Laila Cunningham is surging as a candidate beyond her just being on the telly all the time.
Have the Tories even found a candidate yet? They risk getting lift behind in this race.
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Tories haven't selected yet but its two years off. Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Reform will still be making gains. That they aren't as good as elsewhere may not matter. She'll still be able to look like a winner enough.
I think right of centre Londoners will still gravitate to the Con candidate. Time will tell.
Depends on who it is, the last one was an idiot
Millions of Tories in London, there have to be some good ones?
Coe or Cleverly in front seat
Seb Coe is a lot older IRL than in most people's memories of him winning gold medals or even opening the Olympics, and in two years' time, he will be two years older.
I doubt Seb Coe would be the ideal candidate now and Cleverly may have loftier ambitions.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
Coe will be 71 and IDS 74 by the election. The Conservatives already are seen as the Pensioners Trade Union. Haven't they anyone of working age?
Ginger Spice. Could run on the flags theme as well.
Liz Truss could run.
If they want someone to run, they should definitely go for Seb.
Even in his 70s he’s going to be a much better runner than any other contenders.
Perhaps Baroness Davies could give him a good run for his money. Or at least a good swim.
Stock market taken a big hit. That should wipe the smile off Trumps face.
Err, the FTSE is down 1% from its all time high, and up over the last week.
Things are never that simple. I've not looked but would expect oil company shares to climb on predicted oil price rises, which would cover sharp falls in other sectors. Roger might be wrong but just pointing at one index does not show much. Let's wait and see what happens later today.
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
We went from Toyko to Heathrow some years ago with BA and we flew over Siberia, the White Sea and Finland [approx 15 hours]
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
I have decided that a short layover in a long distance flight is preferable, you get to walk around for a bit and it breaks the journey. The worst bit about a longhaul flight is sitting in the same position for 14 hours. So I was quite happy to book via Doha as it was a good price too. Oh well, all my hotels are on free cancellation and I haven't paid foir any local transport yet, so I can just cancel if necessary - it depends on what flights are available at short notice if and when Qatar do cancel.
I can’t speak for Qatar, but Emirates and Etihad are going out of their way to accomodate changes and cancellations with refunds. UAE government is also paying hotel bills of anyone stuck in country, in the hotel they were already staying!
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Come on, this is a tiny sub sample and I didn’t think we played those games!
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
I certainly would not do that. I guess you were being sarcastic.
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
I have decided that a short layover in a long distance flight is preferable, you get to walk around for a bit and it breaks the journey. The worst bit about a longhaul flight is sitting in the same position for 14 hours. So I was quite happy to book via Doha as it was a good price too. Oh well, all my hotels are on free cancellation and I haven't paid foir any local transport yet, so I can just cancel if necessary - it depends on what flights are available at short notice if and when Qatar do cancel.
I can’t speak for Qatar, but Emirates and Etihad are going out of their way to accomodate changes and cancellations with refunds. UAE government is also paying hotel bills of anyone stuck in country, in the hotel they were already staying!
I can't imagine our government doing that. They seem only to pay the hotel bills of those who arrive here illegally.
The Moscow–Tehran axis is collapsing before our eyes.
It has been confirmed that Iran did in fact appeal to russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow — who could be surprised — resorted to legal sophistry: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a situation that does not trigger the collective defense clause.
Iran reportedly asked russia to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even turned off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles — in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an “ally until the first serious challenge.” Iranian elites — especially the pragmatic wing — are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe. https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028202702443094317
What was the big announcement. I had more important things to do. Sending an EVRI parcel
Thoughts and prayers at this difficult time.
Whenever I sell a package on Vinted my heart sinks when I see they picked EVRI.
Im starting to think Jenrick is a trojan horse. Its the most absurd weak sauce. And put out as we face war. If not, hes a deeply unserious shadow manchild
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
I have decided that a short layover in a long distance flight is preferable, you get to walk around for a bit and it breaks the journey. The worst bit about a longhaul flight is sitting in the same position for 14 hours. So I was quite happy to book via Doha as it was a good price too. Oh well, all my hotels are on free cancellation and I haven't paid foir any local transport yet, so I can just cancel if necessary - it depends on what flights are available at short notice if and when Qatar do cancel.
I can’t speak for Qatar, but Emirates and Etihad are going out of their way to accomodate changes and cancellations with refunds. UAE government is also paying hotel bills of anyone stuck in country, in the hotel they were already staying!
I can't imagine our government doing that. They seem only to pay the hotel bills of those who arrive here illegally.
Leaving asider the latter sentence, we just don't have any bloody money to do it anyway.
'Based on screenshots of two messages sent from inside Iran to the BBC, Iranians have been warned by the intelligence unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) not to go out onto the streets to protest.
The messages describe any upcoming protests as “street riots” that are “planned by the enemy”, and warn that “any movement that disrupts security is considered an example of direct cooperation with the enemy".
In another text message, the IRGC has asked citizens to report “anti-security” incidents by calling them.'
The Moscow–Tehran axis is collapsing before our eyes.
It has been confirmed that Iran did in fact appeal to russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow — who could be surprised — resorted to legal sophistry: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a situation that does not trigger the collective defense clause.
Iran reportedly asked russia to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even turned off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles — in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an “ally until the first serious challenge.” Iranian elites — especially the pragmatic wing — are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe. https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028202702443094317
Othersd have already found this out of course.
Russia is definitely “the broken reed, which pierces the hand that leans on it.”
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Leila Cunningham could win a London mayoral contest imo.
Zero chance, many Reform voters won't vote for a Muslim woman sadly and Labour and LD and Green voters would never preference a Reform candidate anyway
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
We went from Toyko to Heathrow some years ago with BA and we flew over Siberia, the White Sea and Finland [approx 15 hours]
I assume that flightpath is not used these days
One of the biggest early casualties of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was Finnair’s reason for existence - Helsinki acting as a hub on the most direct route to the far east.
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green or Labour Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan or another Labour candidate on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
If the Greens can find a candidate as appealing as 'the plumber' they should stroll it in London. I've had texts from friends who have had it with a labour. Starmer is losing them votes at an uncontrollable rate. I hear Zack's latest is support for Scottish independence. If they could include a rejoin plus schengen plus the Euro I'd be getting fitted up with a kilt as I type
Forget all polls, Roger has texts from friends "who've had it with Labour"! 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green or Labour Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan or another Labour candidate on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
If the Greens can find a candidate as appealing as 'the plumber' they should stroll it in London. I've had texts from friends who have had it with a labour. Starmer is losing them votes at an uncontrollable rate. I hear Zack's latest is support for Scottish independence. If they could include a rejoin plus schengen plus the Euro I'd be getting fitted up with a kilt as I type
The Greens could win London if they get to the final round and we get STV yes, even Corbyn twice won London, however the Greens have zero chance of winning most seats UK wide
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Come on, this is a tiny sub sample and I didn’t think we played those games!
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
What do you mean 'come one?' Every poll has Reform polling far worse in London than they do in the rest of the UK.
Even that Savanta poll you reference was taken at a time Reform were polling 28% to 33% UK wide so 21% in the capital is a pathetic score for Farage's party by comparison. Given the Tories have closed the gap with Reform since then a Labour v Tory Mayoral election with a well known and respected Tory candidate like Coe would be very possible
If the tories can convince a cross over appeal big name to stand they would expect to get second and plausible chance of winning. But they havent been able to find such a candidate since Bozo.
In 2024 I was told if I voted for Kamala I would get rampant inflation and expensive foreign wars.
I voted Kamala and indeed I got rampant inflation and expensive foreign wars.
No you were told you would get woke and mass immigration and continued cheap foreign imports hitting US manufacturing and billions sent to Zelensky from US tax dollars.
I don't agree with much of what he promised but Trump has done what he said he would scrapping EDI. deporting migrants and hammering imports with tariffs.
Even his foreign policy was based on non intervention in Ukraine yes but he was still campaigning strongly for Israel and against Iran even in 2024
18% of global air freight capacity has been taken out of the market by conflict in the Middle East this weekend.
And international passenger flights. An awful lot of long haul goes through the ME hubs which are now shut down. If this goes on for 3-4 weeks it is going to cause chaos. I looked at rebooking mine but there are no direct flights, there's some via China but with stupid flight times and long layovers. And I won't get my money back unless and until Qatar decide to cancel. Even if the Qatari airspace is reopened, Qatar is now orange with the FCDO which presumably means my travel insurance will be void if I fly through there.
Of course I may be able to claim on the insurance *because* Qatar is orange, but then it's due to an act of war which is supposedly excluded. But then it usually is, so I don't know how that works.
Going to Japan at Easter, so glad I didn't book via the ME. The flights might be even longer than before, I suppose.
I have decided that a short layover in a long distance flight is preferable, you get to walk around for a bit and it breaks the journey. The worst bit about a longhaul flight is sitting in the same position for 14 hours. So I was quite happy to book via Doha as it was a good price too. Oh well, all my hotels are on free cancellation and I haven't paid foir any local transport yet, so I can just cancel if necessary - it depends on what flights are available at short notice if and when Qatar do cancel.
I can’t speak for Qatar, but Emirates and Etihad are going out of their way to accomodate changes and cancellations with refunds. UAE government is also paying hotel bills of anyone stuck in country, in the hotel they were already staying!
I can't imagine our government doing that. They seem only to pay the hotel bills of those who arrive here illegally.
Twitter responses agree with you on that point!
UAE gov are spending a fortune to protect their tourist industry, pretty much everyone has positive experiences of being stuck so far.
I knew we shoud have checked into a fancy beach hotel this weekend! (We often do this out of season in the summer when there’s crazy promotions).
Cooper all over the place trying to explain how allowing US air bases is defensive when they are being used to attack Iran
Starmer and Cooper twisting and turning and in the process losing from both sides of the argument
Pointless gotcha journalism. HMGs position seems reasonable, they did not want this to happen, but once its started limited support of an ally against an enemy is sensible.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
I doubt it will take millions of deaths for Iran to surrender.
You lot talked about defeating Hamas as being "two million" deaths, and it took a small fraction of that - and that was when Hamas had Iran behind them, supporting them.
Iran has nobody behind them, nobody supporting them, as they have rapidly realised. It should not take anywhere near as much to break them, once the money dries up and the IRGC leadership realise they're both going to die and not getting paid, then I expect a military coup and surrender before long.
Either way though, in war victory is more important than peace. Which is why war should be a last resort, but that last resort is upon us. A false peace benefits nobody.
I really hate Sky News when we have incidents like this. Everytime they are the same.
They had some British woman who is stuck in UAE and it was absolutely come on, UK government is crap isn't it, well no they have done ok, come on though, you must have a message for the foreign office, you have been trapped there with no date when you will leave, well its difficult situation I don't think they can say much more as it situation is changing day by day, but come on i want a gotcha headline that says foreign nationals trapped abroad failed by government....
Reform still poll much worse in London than the rest of the UK so I would say a Tory v Green Mayoral election in 2028 is more likely than Reform v Green.
For example, the latest Yougov has Reform on 24% UK wide but just 14% in London. The Tories meanwhile are on 18% in London, the same as the 18% the Tories are on UK wide now.
The Greens by contrast are on 24% in London which is above the 17% Yougov has the Greens on UK wide. Labour are on 30% in London compared to just 18% UK wide so you could even get a Labour v Green final 2 in 2028 in which you would get the astonishing site of many Tory and Reform voters having to hold their nose and vote for Khan on preferences if the Mayoral election returns to STV to beat the even more woke leftist Green candidate! https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention
Come on, this is a tiny sub sample and I didn’t think we played those games!
The last Savanta London poll (for a Westminster, not London Mayoral election) from December had Labour on 30%, Reform on 21% and both Green and Conservatives on 17% so you could argue on those numbers a Labour vs Reform runoff is more likely.
Presumably, will we see Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Khan to beat the Reform candidate?
What do you mean 'come one?' Every poll has Reform polling far worse in London than they do in the rest of the UK.
Even that Savanta poll you reference was taken at a time Reform were polling 28% to 33% UK wide so 21% in the capital is a pathetic score for Farage's party by comparison. Given the Tories have closed the gap with Reform since then a Labour v Tory Mayoral election with a well known and respected Tory candidate like Coe would be very possible
The Savanta Mayoral polling shows the gap any “centre right” candidate has to close in London. Lab/Green 45%, Con/Ref 39% so that candidate had to persuade a lot of people to put them as their second preference to win.
I did comment earlier I thought the top two candidates in the 2028 election would be the Labour and Conservative representatives.
The May local elections will be much more informative and we also have the GLA elections to consider. Could either Reform or Green win a GLA constituency ?
Yes so basically a centre right candidate at minimum has to get over half of LD preferences against the Labour or Green Mayoral candidate, Coe or Cleverly have a chance of doing that, no Reform candidate or hard right Tory candidate does.
Based on where they did best in 2024, Reform will certainly be targeting Bexley and Bromley and Havering and Redbridge in the GLA elections, maybe Ealing and Hillingdon too.
The Greens will target North East, Lambeth and Southwark, City and East, and Greenwich and Lewisham
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
And a MAGA religion one. A white evangelical Pastor (Rt Rev Robert Schenk) who had run an organisation aiming to place Supreme Court judges in place who were against abortion, going back to the Reagan supporting Christian Right, and how the appearance of Donald Trump as Guest of Honour at Pat Robertson's 80th birthday ("they were both in the billionaires club after Robertson sold his TV station") in 2011 eventually lead him to question his movement.
He is interviewed on a podcast called "Native Land Pod" (which is black evangelical, essentially, afaics - it is a new one on me) about how came to his "Road to Damascus".
Shes excellent and never forgot where she came from too.
I’m watching a Taggart from 1994 at the moment. I’ll watch it after that.
Cracking Ford Sierra action,
I'm coming to the end of my Sweeney re-watch. Ford Granadas back in the mid-1970s, with Carter sometimes relegated to a Cortina. Villains drove Jags. I'd imagine this was partly because Ford supplied free cars provided only the good guys used them. There again, 60s villains really did favour the Mark 2 Jaguar.
Pointless anecdata: I was at the launch of the Ford Sierra in London's docklands after the docks closed and before the bankers moved in.
- Brent crude: $79.92, up 9.67% - UK wholesale natural gas: $102.74 per thermal, highest since the January cold snap - FTSE 100: 10,807, down 1% - GBP:USD 1.33, down 1 cent since the start of strikes - UK 10-year gilt: 4.262%. Virtually uncharged from Friday lows
As of this morning, a fairly muted reaction.
Depressingly, I think ME wars are pretty much priced into the markets now, to some extent (the oil prices aside where there is an acute impact).
Yes there will be some oil price volatility, until we know exactly what’s going on and how long any disruption might last, but other markets had a conflict pretty much priced in already.
Not sure that Iran bombing most of the GCC was on anyone’s immediate radar though.
Interesting article from last year about lessons (not) learnt from Britain's disastrous WW1 campaign in the Dardanelles against the Ottomans
If I were IRGC facing an existential threat, which I'm totally not, I would drone attack all ships going through Hormuz except Chinese ones
1. I need to get my own oil out. China has a ready market and will feel the effects of the Hormuz blockade. 2. Those ships don't need Western insurance 3. China is a useful ally of Iran 4. Not even Trump is mad enough to sink Chinese ships dealing with Iran
I really hate Sky News when we have incidents like this. Everytime they are the same.
They had some British woman who is stuck in UAE and it was absolutely come on, UK government is crap isn't it, well no they have done ok, come on though, you must have a message for the foreign office, you have been trapped there with no date when you will leave, well its difficult situation I don't think they can say much more as it situation is changing day by day, but come on i want a gotcha headline that says foreign nationals trapped abroad failed by government....
Yeah they can all F. Off.
Are they expecting the SAS to pick them up from the hotel they’re currently staying in for free?
Not sure it will be Reform vs Geeen. Reform likely to come fourth in wards in London in May and I've not seen any polling or evidence that suggests Laila Cunningham is surging as a candidate beyond her just being on the telly all the time.
Have the Tories even found a candidate yet? They risk getting lift behind in this race.
Reform have played a blinder by appointing Laila early and getting her lots of press. She presents well on TV, unlike many others in her party.
Tories haven't selected yet but its two years off. Cunninghams (unwarrented imo) shine will fade after May as she's "leading' what will be a poor result compared to the rest of England
Reform will still be making gains. That they aren't as good as elsewhere may not matter. She'll still be able to look like a winner enough.
I think right of centre Londoners will still gravitate to the Con candidate. Time will tell.
Depends on who it is, the last one was an idiot
Millions of Tories in London, there have to be some good ones?
Coe or Cleverly in front seat
Seb Coe is a lot older IRL than in most people's memories of him winning gold medals or even opening the Olympics, and in two years' time, he will be two years older.
I doubt Seb Coe would be the ideal candidate now and Cleverly may have loftier ambitions.
There aren’t many well known Conservatives in London currently - could IDS be persuaded? I suspect not. In any case, it’s a choice of London Conservative members and as we saw last time, that doesn’t turn out as you might hope or expect.
Coe will be 71 and IDS 74 by the election. The Conservatives already are seen as the Pensioners Trade Union. Haven't they anyone of working age?
Ginger Spice. Could run on the flags theme as well.
Liz Truss could run.
If they want someone to run, they should definitely go for Seb.
Even in his 70s he’s going to be a much better runner than any other contenders.
Perhaps Baroness Davies could give him a good run for his money. Or at least a good swim.
I have a better parkrun PB than him, granted he has only ever run one. He beat me over a mile though.
(And this shows the democratic nature of distance running)
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
I doubt it will take millions of deaths for Iran to surrender.
You lot talked about defeating Hamas as being "two million" deaths, and it took a small fraction of that - and that was when Hamas had Iran behind them, supporting them.
Iran has nobody behind them, nobody supporting them, as they have rapidly realised. It should not take anywhere near as much to break them, once the money dries up and the IRGC leadership realise they're both going to die and not getting paid, then I expect a military coup and surrender before long.
Either way though, in war victory is more important than peace. Which is why war should be a last resort, but that last resort is upon us. A false peace benefits nobody.
Not sure who you lot is but the population of Gaza is two million. Well was, now it is 5% less from deaths.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
Long-term eliminating the Mullahs and the evil they spread via Hamas and Hezbollah etc will result in far fewer.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
Long-term eliminating the Mullahs and the evil they spread via Hamas and Hezbollah etc will result in far fewer.
Cooper all over the place trying to explain how allowing US air bases is defensive when they are being used to attack Iran
Starmer and Cooper twisting and turning and in the process losing from both sides of the argument
Starmer has said only Iranian missile sites hitting UK bases and hotels where UK tourists are staying in the Gulf will be targeted by US planes from UK bases and the PM has said Labour has 'learnt the lessons of Iraq' hence did not send UK jets to join the US and Israeli strikes.
The LDs and Greens though say even that goes too far. Farage has said 'the decision to let the US use UK military bases was "better late than never" and described Sir Keir as "a follower, not a leader".
Kemi wants British bombs hitting Tehran and 'accused the government of being "too scared" to take a stronger stance against Iran because some Labour voters were "swayed by conflicts in the Middle East, not the British national interest".
"So we watch our prime minister and cabinet ministers squirm and obfuscate in interviews, because they cannot say what needs to be said because too many of their voters do not want to hear it."
And a MAGA religion one. A white evangelical Pastor (Rt Rev Robert Schenk) who had run an organisation aiming to place Supreme Court judges in place who were against abortion, going back to the Reagan supporting Christian Right, and how the appearance of Donald Trump as Guest of Honour at Pat Robertson's 80th birthday ("they were both in the billionaires club after Robertson sold his TV station") in 2011 eventually lead him to question his movement.
He is interviewed on a podcast called "Native Land Pod" (which is black evangelical, essentially, afaics - it is a new one on me) about how came to his "Road to Damascus".
Shes excellent and never forgot where she came from too.
I’m watching a Taggart from 1994 at the moment. I’ll watch it after that.
Cracking Ford Sierra action,
I'm coming to the end of my Sweeney re-watch. Ford Granadas back in the mid-1970s, with Carter sometimes relegated to a Cortina. Villains drove Jags. I'd imagine this was partly because Ford supplied free cars provided only the good guys used them. There again, 60s villains really did favour the Mark 2 Jaguar.
Pointless anecdata: I was at the launch of the Ford Sierra in London's docklands after the docks closed and before the bankers moved in.
I’m halfway through season 2. Just watched Hit and Run where Carters wife was killed off. Supposedly because Stephanie Turner was after some money from the producers.
I don’t know about the sweeney but after the early Professionals episodes Ford supplied the cars and the lads drove a great Capri.
I suspect the Sweeney villains drove old jags as they were cheap and always going to be totalled in a car chase.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
Long-term eliminating the Mullahs and the evil they spread via Hamas and Hezbollah etc will result in far fewer.
It is a victory worth seeking.
In what world does killing 5m mostly civilians lead to more peace in the generations to follow? Have you ever considered history?
Our glorious leader, the son of a toolmaker, has correctly deployed the full range of countermeasures: a strongly worded letter drafted by an experienced KC a copy of the relevant international law a commitment to give Cyprus to Mauritius, just to be on the safe side
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
I doubt it will take millions of deaths for Iran to surrender.
You lot talked about defeating Hamas as being "two million" deaths, and it took a small fraction of that - and that was when Hamas had Iran behind them, supporting them.
Iran has nobody behind them, nobody supporting them, as they have rapidly realised. It should not take anywhere near as much to break them, once the money dries up and the IRGC leadership realise they're both going to die and not getting paid, then I expect a military coup and surrender before long.
Either way though, in war victory is more important than peace. Which is why war should be a last resort, but that last resort is upon us. A false peace benefits nobody.
Not sure who you lot is but the population of Gaza is two million. Well was, now it is 5% less from deaths.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
I doubt it will take millions of deaths for Iran to surrender.
You lot talked about defeating Hamas as being "two million" deaths, and it took a small fraction of that - and that was when Hamas had Iran behind them, supporting them.
Iran has nobody behind them, nobody supporting them, as they have rapidly realised. It should not take anywhere near as much to break them, once the money dries up and the IRGC leadership realise they're both going to die and not getting paid, then I expect a military coup and surrender before long.
Either way though, in war victory is more important than peace. Which is why war should be a last resort, but that last resort is upon us. A false peace benefits nobody.
Not sure who you lot is but the population of Gaza is two million. Well was, now it is 5% less from deaths.
Lots of people on this site kept saying defeating Hamas would take two million deaths, which was absurd, it was never going to take every last person being killed before Hamas surrendered.
And after a tiny fraction of that, Hamas did surrender. Good.
But Hamas are the puppets, Iran are the puppeteers. It is long-past time to cut out the evil at source. Kill every head of the hydra, destroy it, and see a free Persia and a more benign Middle East arise after it is vanquished.
I really hate Sky News when we have incidents like this. Everytime they are the same.
They had some British woman who is stuck in UAE and it was absolutely come on, UK government is crap isn't it, well no they have done ok, come on though, you must have a message for the foreign office, you have been trapped there with no date when you will leave, well its difficult situation I don't think they can say much more as it situation is changing day by day, but come on i want a gotcha headline that says foreign nationals trapped abroad failed by government....
Yeah they can all F. Off.
Are they expecting the SAS to pick them up from the hotel they’re currently staying in for free?
Listening to the news on greatest hits radio yesterday they were focussing on a couple of people from Manchester who had their flight cancelled on the second article and were going through the trauma of working out another route.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
From the ABC News Chief Washington correspondent: .
Pres Trump told me tonight the US had identified possible candidates to take over Iran, but they were killed in the initial attack.
"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump told me. "It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."
I feel like Israel might be responsible for that, with its intelligence. Trump might have wanted a nice speedy takeover with most of the state aparatus intact, Israel might have a very different vision.
Same with Gaza. Hard for America to negotiate if everyone they talk to is killed.
You don't need much in the way of negotiations to say "we surrender".
Gaza did it. Iran should too. Even if it takes Gaza style destruction in Iran, whatever it takes.
Iran and Gaza are orders of magnitude apart. The scale of what you suggest is insane, when you consider what level of commitment it took in Gaza.
Bartholomew is the most ill informed poster on here. The number of his posts are in inverse proportion to his knowledge. Iran is twice the area of Pakistan It's population is 50x that of Gaza.
So frigging what?
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
You're talking about millions of deaths and you're treating it as a 'so frigging what?', even if it was something to be considered the atittude is parody levels of silliness.
Even beyond the human basic moral standpoint from a practical point of view it would also be in the order of about 10m refugees, maybe 1-2m to Europe and 100-200k extra coming to the UK.
Long-term eliminating the Mullahs and the evil they spread via Hamas and Hezbollah etc will result in far fewer.
It is a victory worth seeking.
In what world does killing 5m mostly civilians lead to more peace in the generations to follow? Have you ever considered history?
Yes.
Defeating the Nazis led to freedom.
Defeating Imperial Japan led to freedom.
Would the world be a better place if we'd allowed the Nazis to survive?
The world will be a better place if civilised Allies ensure the liberation of Persia and the defeat of the IRGC and the Mullahs.
Our glorious leader, the son of a toolmaker, has correctly deployed the full range of countermeasures: a strongly worded letter drafted by an experienced KC a copy of the relevant international law a commitment to give Cyprus to Mauritius, just to be on the safe side
And the absolute wanker will try and put himself front and centre of any peace conference at wars end. Especially if they can schedule it for PMQs
I really hate Sky News when we have incidents like this. Everytime they are the same.
They had some British woman who is stuck in UAE and it was absolutely come on, UK government is crap isn't it, well no they have done ok, come on though, you must have a message for the foreign office, you have been trapped there with no date when you will leave, well its difficult situation I don't think they can say much more as it situation is changing day by day, but come on i want a gotcha headline that says foreign nationals trapped abroad failed by government....
If god forbid we ever do get an escalation to a nuclear crisis at some point, I dread to think quite how the media will behave.
Comments
Cleverly still has his eye on being Tory leader if Kemi falters in May, if she gets through that though with the Tories second on NEV then Cleverly will start to look towards London 2028. IDS would not win LD preferences like Coe could, he would unite the right and squeeze Reform a bit but still lose to Labour in any STV final round
The Moscow–Tehran axis is collapsing before our eyes.
It has been confirmed that Iran did in fact appeal to russia, invoking clauses on “mutual assistance in the event of a threat to sovereignty.” Moscow — who could be surprised — resorted to legal sophistry: since the U.S. and Israeli strikes are framed as “targeted operations against terrorist infrastructure,” rather than a full-scale invasion, the Kremlin interprets this as a situation that does not trigger the collective defense clause.
Iran reportedly asked russia to activate S-400 systems and Krasukha/Leer-3 electronic warfare systems at russian bases in Syria (Khmeimim and Tartus) to blind Israeli aircraft. Instead, russia not only refused but, according to some reports, even turned off transponders and active radar systems at its bases during the flight of Israeli missiles — in order to avoid accidental involvement and any pretext for entering the conflict.
And finally, Moscow’s refusal has been heard in Pyongyang, Beijing, and across the Global South. Russia has demonstrated that it is an “ally until the first serious challenge.” Iranian elites — especially the pragmatic wing — are now openly saying that the strategic bet on Russia was a mistake that led to a national catastrophe.
https://x.com/rshereme/status/2028202702443094317
A New Statesman interview with Fiona Hill from yesterday ( @Taz ), looking particularly at prospects.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBcAZbAS8_Q
And a MAGA religion one. A white evangelical Pastor (Rt Rev Robert Schenk) who had run an organisation aiming to place Supreme Court judges in place who were against abortion, going back to the Reagan supporting Christian Right, and how the appearance of Donald Trump as Guest of Honour at Pat Robertson's 80th birthday ("they were both in the billionaires club after Robertson sold his TV station") in 2011 eventually lead him to question his movement.
He is interviewed on a podcast called "Native Land Pod" (which is black evangelical, essentially, afaics - it is a new one on me) about how came to his "Road to Damascus".
A bit specialist for PB, but of interest to a few ( @viewcode @algarkirk ?).
https://www.youtube.com/@NativeLandPod
Even that Savanta poll you reference was taken at a time Reform were polling 28% to 33% UK wide so 21% in the capital is a pathetic score for Farage's party by comparison. Given the Tories have closed the gap with Reform since then a Labour v Tory Mayoral election with a well known and respected Tory candidate like Coe would be very possible
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Thanks for the tip will be looking to reinvest some of my By Election win later today
Labour led with 32%, the Conservatives 20%, Reform 19%, Greens 13% and Liberal Democrats 11%
https://x.com/serhii_rieznik/status/2028198437053735351
BREAKING: Russia will not assist Iran under the allied treaty because it was signed with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - “and where is he now?” says Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
Some of us really wanted Russia to engage US and Israeli assets directly, on a FAFO basis.
Sadly Putin is many things but not totally stupid. He knows which is his war and which is someone else’s war - and he has more than enough problems with his own war at the moment! Unfortunately for him, his international ‘friends’ are quickly realising the same. Iran has no friends at all - not even Qatar any more, after the regime just bombed Doha.
I did comment earlier I thought the top two candidates in the 2028 election would be the Labour and Conservative representatives.
The May local elections will be much more informative and we also have the GLA elections to consider. Could either Reform or Green win a GLA constituency ?
If this weakens the Russia - China - Iran - NK alliance it might have a net positive effect on global security.
Though didn't Iran thank Russia for support at the UN?
I voted Kamala and indeed I got rampant inflation and expensive foreign wars.
But Russia has already set up manufacturing back home with Iranian assistance anyway.
So why bother even making it.
How absurd.
Whenever I sell a package on Vinted my heart sinks when I see they picked EVRI.
Iran is the cause behind the instability across the Middle East, behind Hamas, and behind Hezbollah.
It is long since time for the Mullahs to be destroyed.
We managed to defeat the Nazis, we managed to defeat Imperial Japan. Give me one damn reason why the Mullahs can't be defeated.
Whatever it takes, we don't need "peace", we need victory.
is support for Scottish independence. If they could include a rejoin plus schengen plus the Euro I'd be getting fitted up with a kilt as I type
There's another firm... starts with a Y. They once managed to deliver a big load of dog food to the wrong place (and by 'wrong' not 'next door' but 'six houses away'). It was marvellous fun carrying that back to the house.
And one side should get it, and we should be on their side.
After victory, a viable peace could exist.
Yet.
Never knowingly right for long.
Shes excellent and never forgot where she came from too.
I’m watching a Taggart from 1994 at the moment. I’ll watch it after that.
Cracking Ford Sierra action,
Perhaps Baroness Davies could give him a good run for his money. Or at least a good swim.
I assume that flightpath is not used these days
If not, hes a deeply unserious shadow manchild
The messages describe any upcoming protests as “street riots” that are “planned by the enemy”, and warn that “any movement that disrupts security is considered an example of direct cooperation with the enemy".
In another text message, the IRGC has asked citizens to report “anti-security” incidents by calling them.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy0dp1l57nxt
Ukranian kinetic sanctions on refineries are still ongoing!
https://x.com/angelshalagina/status/2028387637187215805
Starmer and Cooper twisting and turning and in the process losing from both sides of the argument
I don't agree with much of what he promised but Trump has done what he said he would scrapping EDI. deporting migrants and hammering imports with tariffs.
Even his foreign policy was based on non intervention in Ukraine yes but he was still campaigning strongly for Israel and against Iran even in 2024
Requires military retaliation by Britain
UAE gov are spending a fortune to protect their tourist industry, pretty much everyone has positive experiences of being stuck so far.
I knew we shoud have checked into a fancy beach hotel this weekend! (We often do this out of season in the summer when there’s crazy promotions).
How much in dollars are a dozen eggs and a gallon of gas? The latter will be through the roof by teatime on Tuesday.
You lot talked about defeating Hamas as being "two million" deaths, and it took a small fraction of that - and that was when Hamas had Iran behind them, supporting them.
Iran has nobody behind them, nobody supporting them, as they have rapidly realised. It should not take anywhere near as much to break them, once the money dries up and the IRGC leadership realise they're both going to die and not getting paid, then I expect a military coup and surrender before long.
Either way though, in war victory is more important than peace. Which is why war should be a last resort, but that last resort is upon us. A false peace benefits nobody.
They had some British woman who is stuck in UAE and it was absolutely come on, UK government is crap isn't it, well no they have done ok, come on though, you must have a message for the foreign office, you have been trapped there with no date when you will leave, well its difficult situation I don't think they can say much more as it situation is changing day by day, but come on i want a gotcha headline that says foreign nationals trapped abroad failed by government....
Based on where they did best in 2024, Reform will certainly be targeting Bexley and Bromley and Havering and Redbridge in the GLA elections, maybe Ealing and Hillingdon too.
The Greens will target North East, Lambeth and Southwark, City and East, and Greenwich and Lewisham
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_London_Assembly_election
Mission accomplished
Pointless anecdata: I was at the launch of the Ford Sierra in London's docklands after the docks closed and before the bankers moved in.
1. I need to get my own oil out. China has a ready market and will feel the effects of the Hormuz blockade.
2. Those ships don't need Western insurance
3. China is a useful ally of Iran
4. Not even Trump is mad enough to sink Chinese ships dealing with Iran
Are they expecting the SAS to pick them up from the hotel they’re currently staying in for free?
(And this shows the democratic nature of distance running)
It is a victory worth seeking.
Looks like the markets are a bit down, no sign of a crash.
The LDs and Greens though say even that goes too far. Farage has said 'the decision to let the US use UK military bases was "better late than never" and described Sir Keir as "a follower, not a leader".
Kemi wants British bombs hitting Tehran and 'accused the government of being "too scared" to take a stronger stance against Iran because some Labour voters were "swayed by conflicts in the Middle East, not the British national interest".
"So we watch our prime minister and cabinet ministers squirm and obfuscate in interviews, because they cannot say what needs to be said because too many of their voters do not want to hear it."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqj9g11p1ezo
I don’t know about the sweeney but after the early Professionals episodes Ford supplied the cars and the lads drove a great Capri.
I suspect the Sweeney villains drove old jags as they were cheap and always going to be totalled in a car chase.
About to order the Blu Ray of season 3
Our glorious leader, the son of a toolmaker, has correctly deployed the full range of countermeasures:
a strongly worded letter drafted by an experienced KC
a copy of the relevant international law
a commitment to give Cyprus to Mauritius, just to be on the safe side
And after a tiny fraction of that, Hamas did surrender. Good.
But Hamas are the puppets, Iran are the puppeteers. It is long-past time to cut out the evil at source. Kill every head of the hydra, destroy it, and see a free Persia and a more benign Middle East arise after it is vanquished.
Defeating the Nazis led to freedom.
Defeating Imperial Japan led to freedom.
Would the world be a better place if we'd allowed the Nazis to survive?
The world will be a better place if civilised Allies ensure the liberation of Persia and the defeat of the IRGC and the Mullahs.
Our bases are under attack in Cyprus. We have to take defensive action.
Shame.