Candidates matter in a by-election. The Fukkers went for a jug eared eugenicist who looks like the Scottish FA Cup in silhouette and we had somebody appealling and normal.
I think that's a strong enough result for Labour that they have a decent chance of regaining this seat at a general election.
Ultimately the Reform vote was low enough that tactical voting was irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered how the Green/Labour vote split, Reform didn't have enough votes to come through the middle.
I think that's a strong enough result for Labour that they have a decent chance of regaining this seat at a general election.
Ultimately the Reform vote was low enough that tactical voting was irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered how the Green/Labour vote split, Reform didn't have enough votes to come through the middle.
That’s basically what I said above, there’s a fundamental limit on Reform’s support somewhere. However it’s a significantly higher cap than I expected.
4,000 is a lot of "family voting" for Reform to prove.
Oh, it was an excuse? Right...
You'd have thought if this guy Gooodwin was the best Farages Fascists could put up he'd have thought of a better reason for failure than that nonsense!
I think that's a strong enough result for Labour that they have a decent chance of regaining this seat at a general election.
Ultimately the Reform vote was low enough that tactical voting was irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered how the Green/Labour vote split, Reform didn't have enough votes to come through the middle.
That’s basically what I said above, there’s a fundamental limit on Reform’s support somewhere. However it’s a significantly higher cap than I expected.
There's a limit on every party's support, but Reform did poll quite close to their national polling average in a seat that's a bit worse than average for them.
It suggests there's a very large number of seats where they can expect to poll at least 35% of the vote, which puts them on course for hundreds of MPs, unless anti-Reform tactical voting is very efficient. And even then, there's a limit to what tactical voting can achieve as the Reform vote share in a seat increases.
That’s a superb result for the Greens. Much as I hate to say it. They are loathsome
It’s a solid and satisfying result for Reform, in one of their least promising areas. They would get an overall majority if these ethnic tendencies applied throughout the UK
It’s an abysmal vote for the Tories and LDs, but then that was expected. So they will fly under the radar for now
The true disaster is for Labour. THIRD. And way behind the Greens
A lot of ministers - like Wes Streeting - are doomed with results like this. And they are heading for a GE apocalypse. Remember Starmer visited the constituency two days ago and we were all told Labour were close to winning and it was all very tight
There will be a challenge to Starmer this year. And it will surely be successful. The question is: When and who?
Response from Matt Goodwin is to attack the process and suggest manipulation:
Hannah Al-Othman Speaking to journalists a little earlier, Matt Goodwin said: “I don’t think the progressives beat us, I think the progressives were told how to vote.”
I'm not sure what to make of that yet, but I think we need a "Goodwin's Law".
Perhaps "If in doubt, attack the process, then the electorate, then anything else that is not your own performance.* " But it needs to be more elegant.
Based on the First Law of Cat: If in doubt, wash. That comes from "Jenny" by Paul Gallico.
I think that's a strong enough result for Labour that they have a decent chance of regaining this seat at a general election.
Ultimately the Reform vote was low enough that tactical voting was irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered how the Green/Labour vote split, Reform didn't have enough votes to come through the middle.
That’s basically what I said above, there’s a fundamental limit on Reform’s support somewhere. However it’s a significantly higher cap than I expected.
There's a limit on every party's support, but Reform did poll quite close to their national polling average in a seat that's a bit worse than average for them.
It suggests there's a very large number of seats where they can expect to poll at least 35% of the vote, which puts them on course for hundreds of MPs, unless anti-Reform tactical voting is very efficient. And even then, there's a limit to what tactical voting can achieve as the Reform vote share in a seat increases.
I’m predicting Hung Parliament with Reform largest party to Reform majority. This now seems the likeliest outcome to me.
I think that's a strong enough result for Labour that they have a decent chance of regaining this seat at a general election.
Ultimately the Reform vote was low enough that tactical voting was irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered how the Green/Labour vote split, Reform didn't have enough votes to come through the middle.
That’s basically what I said above, there’s a fundamental limit on Reform’s support somewhere. However it’s a significantly higher cap than I expected.
There's a limit on every party's support, but Reform did poll quite close to their national polling average in a seat that's a bit worse than average for them.
It suggests there's a very large number of seats where they can expect to poll at least 35% of the vote, which puts them on course for hundreds of MPs, unless anti-Reform tactical voting is very efficient. And even then, there's a limit to what tactical voting can achieve as the Reform vote share in a seat increases.
Would a better candidate have helped Reform? I always thought Goodwin was a very bad choice.
In a seat with the demographics of Gorton and Denton there was always going to be a big majority who wouldn't want a Reform MP. Would have been threading the needle to ever win a three horse race.
“MPs and campaigners who have visited Gorton and Denton have all expressed surprise at how well the Labour vote is holding up. Starmer visited the seat this week. His presence is not a vote-winning tactic – far from it – so the visit was probably because of rising confidence that Labour can win.
Labour has managed to energise its activist base, despite polling showing a broad dissatisfaction with the government. The ban on Burnham’s candidacy was said by some to be likely to dissuade activists, but that hasn’t happened – Labour has had the most activists in its history register to campaign to get the vote out on Thursday.
Starmer allies who want the prime minister to take a more aggressively progressive position have been happy with how Starmer has drawn dividing lines with Reform, attacking Goodwin’s comments on whether people from minority ethnic backgrounds can be truly British.”
Response from Matt Goodwin is to attack the process and suggest manipulation:
Hannah Al-Othman Speaking to journalists a little earlier, Matt Goodwin said: “I don’t think the progressives beat us, I think the progressives were told how to vote.”
I'm not sure what to make of that yet, but I think we need a "Goodwin's Law".
Perhaps "If in doubt, attack the process, then the electorate, then anything else that is not your own performance.* " But it needs to be more elegant.
Based on the First Law of Cat: If in doubt, wash. That comes from "Jenny" by Paul Gallico.
I don't think we should necessarily dismiss concerns about the vote so glibly. We should worry about the potential for coercion, and things like photographing ballot papers does need to be prevented to protect people from coercion.
One of the arguments in favour of opinion polling is that it should make it harder to steal an election, because a stolen election would be expected to be wildly at variance to the polling (unless they polling has also been nobbled). Yet, when there is such a variance we are very quick to give the polling a kicking for inaccuracy (though in this case the uncertainty range is large enough that I don't think we can say the polling was wrong, as such).
The irony of course is Goodwin's favourite FoN have been the pollster who's methodology has been promoting the Greens.
I also wonder whether Kemi's "paedo (enabler) party" tag did even more to damage Labour than their own incompetence. Are we sure Burnham would have taken this had he been candidate? I have my doubts.
Response from Matt Goodwin is to attack the process and suggest manipulation:
Hannah Al-Othman Speaking to journalists a little earlier, Matt Goodwin said: “I don’t think the progressives beat us, I think the progressives were told how to vote.”
I'm not sure what to make of that yet, but I think we need a "Goodwin's Law".
Perhaps "If in doubt, attack the process, then the electorate, then anything else that is not your own performance.* " But it needs to be more elegant.
Based on the First Law of Cat: If in doubt, wash. That comes from "Jenny" by Paul Gallico.
I don't think we should necessarily dismiss concerns about the vote so glibly. We should worry about the potential for coercion, and things like photographing ballot papers does need to be prevented to protect people from coercion.
One of the arguments in favour of opinion polling is that it should make it harder to steal an election, because a stolen election would be expected to be wildly at variance to the polling (unless they polling has also been nobbled). Yet, when there is such a variance we are very quick to give the polling a kicking for inaccuracy (though in this case the uncertainty range is large enough that I don't think we can say the polling was wrong, as such).
It's something I think about a bit.
It all rings a bit hollow when Reform only ever complain when they lose.
Response from Matt Goodwin is to attack the process and suggest manipulation:
Hannah Al-Othman Speaking to journalists a little earlier, Matt Goodwin said: “I don’t think the progressives beat us, I think the progressives were told how to vote.”
I'm not sure what to make of that yet, but I think we need a "Goodwin's Law".
Perhaps "If in doubt, attack the process, then the electorate, then anything else that is not your own performance.* " But it needs to be more elegant.
Based on the First Law of Cat: If in doubt, wash. That comes from "Jenny" by Paul Gallico.
I don't think we should necessarily dismiss concerns about the vote so glibly. We should worry about the potential for coercion, and things like photographing ballot papers does need to be prevented to protect people from coercion.
One of the arguments in favour of opinion polling is that it should make it harder to steal an election, because a stolen election would be expected to be wildly at variance to the polling (unless they polling has also been nobbled). Yet, when there is such a variance we are very quick to give the polling a kicking for inaccuracy (though in this case the uncertainty range is large enough that I don't think we can say the polling was wrong, as such).
It's something I think about a bit.
I'm not actually dismissing concerns; I'm characterising how Goodwin handles himself.
There was another attack on process this week from a similar trajectory, where Rupert Lowe tried to stop a Parliamentary enquiry by Judicial Review, which I cannot fathom.
That said, one of the things about Gaza as an issue is that for many people it has a moral simplicity that domestic issues lack, precisely because it has nothing to do with Britain and so the complexities and tradeoffs can be ignored.
I don't think it's the most important issue for many people, but many people see it as a simple one that Starmer is on the wrong side of.
I think it has a lot of similarities to immigration as an issue in those respects.
I am surprised that it features so strongly in why Fox jr and Fox jr2 will not vote Labour, but it does.
The irony of course is Goodwin's favourite FoN have been the pollster who's methodology has been promoting the Greens.
I also wonder whether Kemi's "paedo (enabler) party" tag did even more to damage Labour than their own incompetence. Are we sure Burnham would have taken this had he been candidate? I have my doubts.
Burnham would undoubtedly have given Labour a boost, and it would have helped Labour a lot in the battle with the Greens as to who was best-placed to beat Reform.
A lot would have depended on the campaign and how Burnham handled questions about his aspirations for the Labour leadership, and his support for Starmer's policies. If he'd toed the government line then that could have blunted a lot of his appeal, and thrown more attention onto voters' annoyance with the government. If he'd started his own leadership campaign while campaigning in the by-election, then it could have divided Labour badly (and divided parties rarely win), or it could have galvanised voters in the constituency to vote for Burnham as a means to defeating Starmer, potentially giving Burnham a large victory.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
Background: that gent is the founding editor of the 5Pillars website, which is described thusly (Wiki):
5Pillars is a UK-based news and commentary website that covers issues related to British Muslims, as well as developments in the broader Islamic world. Founded in 2013, it operates independently and is primarily funded through reader donations, subscriptions, and advertising. The platform has been described by analysts as promoting a conservative Sunni and pan-Islamist perspective, and as being critical of Ahmadis, LGBTQ+ individuals, and Zionism. The outlet frequently highlights Palestinian issues and addresses Islamophobia in Western contexts.
I'm quite interested that the new MP is a plasterer as well as a plumber.
It's clear where she thinks her vote came from: Working class and Muslim community.
But we have that Democracy Observer's assessment mentioned earlier, which raises questions.
Was it @Sandpit who held his nerve and continued to back the Greens? Congratulations.
Not guilty.
Until this week I thought that Reform would do it, then saw the Greens’ outwardly sectarian late-stage campaign and thought it would be close between the two. I’m very much not a fan of such identity politics, but don’t doubt that there are block votes to be had among certain ‘communities’.
I had little doubt that Labour would be 3rd after the Burnham debacle and the coming-about of the by-election in the first place. Way too easy to sit on your hands as a Labour voter or activist in the circumstances.
That said, one of the things about Gaza as an issue is that for many people it has a moral simplicity that domestic issues lack, precisely because it has nothing to do with Britain and so the complexities and tradeoffs can be ignored.
I don't think it's the most important issue for many people, but many people see it as a simple one that Starmer is on the wrong side of.
I think it has a lot of similarities to immigration as an issue in those respects.
I am surprised that it features so strongly in why Fox jr and Fox jr2 will not vote Labour, but it does.
These are not easy votes to get back.
Without Starmer and his Zionism, and with someone else less genocide adjacent running the show maybe that could change.
I also expect the alarms have been raised at the Telegraph and the Mail that the destruction of the Labour Party doesn't necessarily deliver the goodness of Farage but something far worse for them. I personally am more sanguine at the prospect of some undiluted communism.
For what it's worth, I've had a look round the local council results in search of nuggets for this by-election.
Obviously, we are still quite early in the election cycle, there have been no local rounds since the general election, so the locals are less useful as a baseline than they were in the latter stages of the last parliament. After this May, it's game on.
So, surprising quite how close the 2024 round was to general election, given the absence of Reform. Really shows that the underwhelming Labour %age vote was already baked in by their NEV in May, driven by places like this.
Here we have below the 2024 round with +/- figures comparing with the General election:
Lab 54.4 (+3.6 on the GE share) WP 17.3 (+7.0 on GE) Grn 14.3 (+1.1 on GE) Con 6.9 (-1.0 on GE) LD 3.8 (unchanged on GE) Ind 3.2 (+3.2 on GE) Ref 0 (-14.1 on GE)
I've also had a quick nosey at the 2015/6 rounds at UKIP's peak. Only UKIP best shares expressed here (their NEV was 13%, taking best of 2 we'd expect a bit higher). Note Denton wards around 20% smaller than Manchester wards:
Denton S: 15.0 (+24 for an Ind) Denton NE: 28.0 Denton W: 20.0 Burnage: 12.7 Gorton N (only partially relevant): 22.0 Gorton S: 14.0 Levenshulme: Never stood (a relevant looking Ind got 12.4) Longsight: Never stood
This sort of bears out the broadly average vote share Reform got in 2024, but though the Reform vote has depth, hints at a limit to its width.
So, after all the data, it ends up back to a finger in the air. My take is this:
1. Reform will have enthusiastic voters, but in a moderately high turnout election (for this area), differential turnout won't bias too much. I suspect a ceiling on their vote slightly below their polling (deep but not wide). I think sub 30%, I wouldn't be amazed with 25, but I think 27-28 more likely.
2. Green + Labour will attain more than double the Reform vote, so whatever the split one of these 2 parties will win. Lack of WPGB also helps this a lot, though I think they would have been squeezed anyway. The balance between them is labile and I wouldn't be sure what that exact balance will be. I think Green win but Labour avoid Caerphilly style collapse and could sneak second - a minimum 20% even if Green flight does reach it's maximum extent.
In numbers, I'll predict, with the caveat on the Grn/Lab balance:
That said, one of the things about Gaza as an issue is that for many people it has a moral simplicity that domestic issues lack, precisely because it has nothing to do with Britain and so the complexities and tradeoffs can be ignored.
I don't think it's the most important issue for many people, but many people see it as a simple one that Starmer is on the wrong side of.
I think it has a lot of similarities to immigration as an issue in those respects.
I am surprised that it features so strongly in why Fox jr and Fox jr2 will not vote Labour, but it does.
These are not easy votes to get back.
It's being used as a screening question, I think. A party/candidate has to be on the right side of that issue to be considered.
It has the potential to reduce the pool within which tactical voting operates.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Sadly I think a great deal of support for Hamas comes from a hatred of Jews in general and Israel in particular.
We see the opposite happening in Iran, where the regime has killed tens of thousands of young people but no-one appears to care.
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I’d still bet on a Labour lead at some point in the year.
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I hope so. I am on the tip for Greens to top a poll too.
That said, one of the things about Gaza as an issue is that for many people it has a moral simplicity that domestic issues lack, precisely because it has nothing to do with Britain and so the complexities and tradeoffs can be ignored.
I don't think it's the most important issue for many people, but many people see it as a simple one that Starmer is on the wrong side of.
I think it has a lot of similarities to immigration as an issue in those respects.
I am surprised that it features so strongly in why Fox jr and Fox jr2 will not vote Labour, but it does.
These are not easy votes to get back.
It's being used as a screening question, I think. A party/candidate has to be on the right side of that issue to be considered.
It has the potential to reduce the pool within which tactical voting operates.
Some people just don’t want to understand imo
Imagine if uk parties had active “friends of Russia” groups
Would it be odd if people refused to consider them ? Even though Russia is not a direct threat to us ? Not at all
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I’d still bet on a Labour lead at some point in the year.
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I’d still bet on a Labour lead at some point in the year.
Unless they change leader, I cannot see a Labour lead at all.
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I hope so. I am on the tip for Greens to top a poll too.
It seems to me that Labour's hope then is Rayner is crap is Prime Minister.
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I’d still bet on a Labour lead at some point in the year.
Expecting Starmers resignation?
To be honest no, I’m not even convinced he’ll go after the May elections. He should go and indeed should have quit after Mandelson.
On topic, the Green victory was not small. They didn't eek out a win based on 'family voting', they won by a double digit percentage.
For every two Reform or Labour voters, there were three Green ones.
Now, did they benefit from Gaza and the Muslim vote? I'm sure they did. And if it had been a 34-30 victory then that might have been what tipped them over the edge. But 41% of the vote... nah... that's not close.
The Greens won big.
Now, do I think they're a bunch of deluded anti-progress nutters? I do.
But they won this evening, and they won fair and square.
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I’d still bet on a Labour lead at some point in the year.
Unless they change leader, I cannot see a Labour lead at all.
There is a visceral hatred of Starmer promoted by the right wing media but underwritten by his own hubris.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Pretty puzzling the number of people who spout the ‘puts gays to death’ line.
That said, one of the things about Gaza as an issue is that for many people it has a moral simplicity that domestic issues lack, precisely because it has nothing to do with Britain and so the complexities and tradeoffs can be ignored.
I don't think it's the most important issue for many people, but many people see it as a simple one that Starmer is on the wrong side of.
I think it has a lot of similarities to immigration as an issue in those respects.
I am surprised that it features so strongly in why Fox jr and Fox jr2 will not vote Labour, but it does.
These are not easy votes to get back.
It's being used as a screening question, I think. A party/candidate has to be on the right side of that issue to be considered.
It has the potential to reduce the pool within which tactical voting operates.
Some people just don’t want to understand imo
Imagine if uk parties had active “friends of Russia” groups
Would it be odd if people refused to consider them ? Even though Russia is not a direct threat to us ? Not at all
I don't think comparing Israel to Russia is helpful. It obscures more than it illuminates.
But anyway, my interest at the moment is less whether it is odd, or whether I agree, that people should vote on support/opposition to Israel/Palestine, but on how that effects future electoral outcomes.
Some people are voting for that reason, which has implications for the efficiency of anti-Reform tactical voting, but not enough that the Greens would want it to be a central part of their political identity, I would think.
Incidentally, green is a colour used to represent Islam in a lot of national flags, which won't do the Greens any harm at all.
On topic, the Green victory was not small. They didn't eek out a win based on 'family voting', they won by a double digit percentage.
For every two Reform or Labour voters, there were three Green ones.
Now, did they benefit from Gaza and the Muslim vote? I'm sure they did. And if it had been a 34-30 victory then that might have been what tipped them over the edge. But 41% of the vote... nah... that's not close.
The Greens won big.
Now, do I think they're a bunch of deluded anti-progress nutters? I do.
But they won this evening, and they won fair and square.
And that's what democracy is all about.
It’s blistering insight like this that’s led you to the very top of the Arizonan car park software industry
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
On topic, the Green victory was not small. They didn't eek out a win based on 'family voting', they won by a double digit percentage.
For every two Reform or Labour voters, there were three Green ones.
Now, did they benefit from Gaza and the Muslim vote? I'm sure they did. And if it had been a 34-30 victory then that might have been what tipped them over the edge. But 41% of the vote... nah... that's not close.
The Greens won big.
Now, do I think they're a bunch of deluded anti-progress nutters? I do.
But they won this evening, and they won fair and square.
And that's what democracy is all about.
I would hope that issues of the secrecy of the ballot, or party political advertising too close to piling stations, etc, are dealt with while they are small problems, rather than left until they are influencing the outcomes of elections.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
All the tactical voting sites recommended voting Green to ensure Goodwin lost.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
You can't apply vote changes from a by-election across the country like that to any useful end. By-election swings are typically much larger, not least because the intense campaigning generally turbocharges tactical voting.
You would expect the vote changes to be different in a seat where the Tories were first or second at GE2024.
Badenoch has pulled the Tory polling up from its nadir. There's a long way to go to recover the ground lost since the last GE, but I think they are a lot less doomed than they appeared to be six months ago.
Edit: Obvs. PB.com is unusual, but we did see a fair few, "Tories for Starmer," yesterday, who would have voted tactically for Labour in this by-election. I forget what proportion they are according to the polling, but if you factor those in then you find more Labour to Reform switchers are necessary to make the numbers balance.
On topic, the Green victory was not small. They didn't eek out a win based on 'family voting', they won by a double digit percentage.
For every two Reform or Labour voters, there were three Green ones.
Now, did they benefit from Gaza and the Muslim vote? I'm sure they did. And if it had been a 34-30 victory then that might have been what tipped them over the edge. But 41% of the vote... nah... that's not close.
The Greens won big.
Now, do I think they're a bunch of deluded anti-progress nutters? I do.
But they won this evening, and they won fair and square.
And that's what democracy is all about.
I would hope that issues of the secrecy of the ballot, or party political advertising too close to piling stations, etc, are dealt with while they are small problems, rather than left until they are influencing the outcomes of elections.
Tower Hamlets is entirely run by that sort of thing.
The “Community Leaders” haven’t quite the same style as those from Northern Ireland, but the theme tunes are familiar.
Morning everyone. My big bet on Labour didn’t come in so no 5* meal for me and the missus. However the position on Greens that I took when Goodwin was announced means a reasonable profit overall.
It was Goodwin what lost it.
Looking forward to 2029, the next Parliament is going to be a basket case with no one able to get their policies through. Back to another decade of stasis. I think I will stay in Spain. At least it’s sunny.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Pretty puzzling the number of people who spout the ‘puts gays to death’ line.
Wiki
“Hamas has a long record of persecuting LGBTQ people in Gaza, including arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings.
Homosexuality is illegal in Gaza under a mix of old British-era laws and Islamist rule.
Hamas security forces have arrested men accused of being gay, often charging them with “moral crimes” or using the accusation to coerce informants.
Human-rights groups (like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty) have documented cases of torture, beatings, and killings of suspected gay men.
Several Palestinians have fled Gaza or sought asylum abroad specifically because they feared execution or violence due to their sexuality.”
Meanwhile here is the deputy leader of the Greens, Mothin Ali, on October 7, 2023, calling the Hamas rape and murder of Israelis “the Al aqsa flood” and praising their “fight back against white settler colonialist imperialism”
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Pretty puzzling the number of people who spout the ‘puts gays to death’ line.
Hamas do put gays to death.
It doesn't work as an attack line though. Neither of my boys support Hamas, but they do support an independent Palestine, as I do, and think Israel's genocide in Gaza an atrocity. This is also true of the many Muslims that I know, none of whom support Hamas.
Incidentally none of the Muslims that I know are bothered by LGBT rights at all. They seem to see LBGT rights as part of a "live and let live" approach to multiculturalism, and part of being British.
The last two YouGov polls had the Greens 7pp behind Reform. Could winning the by-election be a big enough boost that an outlier might give the Greens the lead in a poll during March?
I’d still bet on a Labour lead at some point in the year.
Unless they change leader, I cannot see a Labour lead at all.
There is a visceral hatred of Starmer promoted by the right wing media but underwritten by his own hubris.
I see far more hatred for Starmer on the left. To the right he seems to be just seen as a failure.
On topic. Labour thrashing about with accusations of the Greens being paedos and the drug dealers’ friend went down like a pint of cold sick. As with Mamdani if you’ve got nothing attractive in your own locker, voters can see through that shite. Unfortunately we can expect more of this because they don’t know what else to do.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
You can't apply vote changes from a by-election across the country like that to any useful end. By-election swings are typically much larger, not least because the intense campaigning generally turbocharges tactical voting.
You would expect the view changes to be different in a seat where the Tories were first or second at GE2024.
Badenoch has pulled the Tory polling up from its nadir. There's a long way to go to recover the ground lost since the last GE, but I think they are a lot less doomed than they appeared to be six months ago.
Am I the only person thinking she’s doing quite a good job?
Her solution for tuition fees is not a good one however she astutely gave the attention to the issue of tuition fees and has charted a course that isn’t going after pensioners. Something I have been calling for, for years.
There’s a space for a Tory Party that would do very well with the let’s say 25-45 age bracket. She’s made the first attempt at speaking to them.
They need to do away with their NIMBYism streak next.
Morning everyone. My big bet on Labour didn’t come in so no 5* meal for me and the missus. However the position on Greens that I took when Goodwin was announced means a reasonable profit overall.
It was Goodwin what lost it.
Looking forward to 2029, the next Parliament is going to be a basket case with no one able to get their policies through. Back to another decade of stasis. I think I will stay in Spain. At least it’s sunny.
I do not think Goodwin lost it however he didn’t help. Not calling out Tommy Robinson was bizarre.
Goodwin like Farage is rather marmite. The wrong kind of candidate to be broadening Reform’s appeal IMHO.
Of course they’re now saying this seat was stolen or that this seat isn’t important anyway.
I really don’t like that Reform are going head on at the idea the election was stolen. This seems like the sort of thing I was hoping they wouldn’t just copy wholesale from Trump.
On topic. Labour thrashing about with accusations of the Greens being paedos and the drug dealers’ friend went down like a pint of cold sick. As with Mamdani if you’ve got nothing attractive in your own locker, voters can see through that shite. Unfortunately we can expect more of this because they don’t know what else to do.
The Green policy on NATO is genuinely scary though.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Pretty puzzling the number of people who spout the ‘puts gays to death’ line.
Wiki
“Hamas has a long record of persecuting LGBTQ people in Gaza, including arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings.
Homosexuality is illegal in Gaza under a mix of old British-era laws and Islamist rule.
Hamas security forces have arrested men accused of being gay, often charging them with “moral crimes” or using the accusation to coerce informants.
Human-rights groups (like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty) have documented cases of torture, beatings, and killings of suspected gay men.
Several Palestinians have fled Gaza or sought asylum abroad specifically because they feared execution or violence due to their sexuality.”
Meanwhile here is the deputy leader of the Greens, Mothin Ali, on October 7, 2023, calling the Hamas rape and murder of Israelis “the Al aqsa flood” and praising their “fight back against white settler colonialist imperialism”
Great that they’ve kept at least one bit of the British Empire. Nevertheless the death penalty for homosexuality is not part of the Palestinian penal code in Gaza or the West Bank.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
All the tactical voting sites recommended voting Green to ensure Goodwin lost.
I do not think many GE 24 Tory voters switched to Green.
The national opinion polling also shows Lab 24 voters switching heavily to Green, far more than to Reform. That switch is not just a byelection phenomenon.
The May elections in England are going to be a meltdown for Lab and Tories, a good night for Reform, but also a very good night for the Greens.
Both Starmer and Badenoch are going to struggle to survive the year as leader.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Pretty puzzling the number of people who spout the ‘puts gays to death’ line.
Hamas do put gays to death.
It doesn't work as an attack line though. Neither of my boys support Hamas, but they do support an independent Palestine, as I do, and think Israel's genocide in Gaza an atrocity. This is also true of the many Muslims that I know, none of whom support Hamas.
Incidentally none of the Muslims that I know are bothered by LGBT rights at all. They seem to see LBGT rights as part of a "live and let live" approach to multiculturalism, and part of being British.
Half thought in 2016 homosexuality should be illegal.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
All the tactical voting sites recommended voting Green to ensure Goodwin lost.
I do not think many GE 24 Tory voters switched to Green.
The national opinion polling also shows Lab 24 voters switching heavily to Green, far more than to Reform. That switch is not just a byelection phenomenon.
The May elections in England are going to be a meltdown for Lab and Tories, a good night for Reform, but also a very good night for the Greens.
Both Starmer and Badenoch are going to struggle to survive the year as leader.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Pretty puzzling the number of people who spout the ‘puts gays to death’ line.
Wiki
“Hamas has a long record of persecuting LGBTQ people in Gaza, including arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings.
Homosexuality is illegal in Gaza under a mix of old British-era laws and Islamist rule.
Hamas security forces have arrested men accused of being gay, often charging them with “moral crimes” or using the accusation to coerce informants.
Human-rights groups (like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty) have documented cases of torture, beatings, and killings of suspected gay men.
Several Palestinians have fled Gaza or sought asylum abroad specifically because they feared execution or violence due to their sexuality.”
Meanwhile here is the deputy leader of the Greens, Mothin Ali, on October 7, 2023, calling the Hamas rape and murder of Israelis “the Al aqsa flood” and praising their “fight back against white settler colonialist imperialism”
Great that they’ve kept at least one bit of the British Empire. Nevertheless the death penalty for homosexuality is not part of the Palestinian penal code in Gaza or the West Bank.
You’re denying that Hamas persecute torture and sometimes execute gays?? Really?
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Pretty puzzling the number of people who spout the ‘puts gays to death’ line.
Hamas do put gays to death.
It doesn't work as an attack line though. Neither of my boys support Hamas, but they do support an independent Palestine, as I do, and think Israel's genocide in Gaza an atrocity. This is also true of the many Muslims that I know, none of whom support Hamas.
Incidentally none of the Muslims that I know are bothered by LGBT rights at all. They seem to see LBGT rights as part of a "live and let live" approach to multiculturalism, and part of being British.
Half thought in 2016 homosexuality should be illegal.
"However, when asked to what extent they agreed or disagreed that homosexuality should be legal in Britain, 18% said they agreed and 52% said they disagreed, compared with 5% among the public at large who disagreed. Almost half (47%) said they did not agree that it was acceptable for a gay person to become a teacher, compared with 14% of the general population."
Well done to everyone who tipped Greens - sometimes things are as simple as they look! Reform will be very disappointed, but I think the poor Labour showing is probably the headline.
I really don’t like that Reform are going head on at the idea the election was stolen. This seems like the sort of thing I was hoping they wouldn’t just copy wholesale from Trump.
I think it's important that the concerns raised by the independent election observers are addressed, rather than lost in an argument over Reform claiming it lost them the election.
Comments
GRN: 40.7% (+27.5)
REF: 28.7% (+14.7)
LAB: 25.4% (-25.3)
CON: 1.9% (-6.0)
LDEM: 1.8% (-2.1)
Green GAIN from Labour.
They came second - beating Labour and the Tories - in a dead which is their 440th target in a GE
I know you’re a thicko. But really
Oh, it was an excuse? Right...
Candidates matter in a by-election. The Fukkers went for a jug eared eugenicist who looks like the Scottish FA Cup in silhouette and we had somebody appealling and normal.
Think I’m going to predict a Reform government at this point.
And fair to say polling was way off?
Ultimately the Reform vote was low enough that tactical voting was irrelevant. It wouldn't have mattered how the Green/Labour vote split, Reform didn't have enough votes to come through the middle.
https://bsky.app/profile/gabyhinsliff.bsky.social/post/3mfoktqphgs2p
No threat to the Reform vote from Advance UK. They received 154 votes (0.4%).
It suggests there's a very large number of seats where they can expect to poll at least 35% of the vote, which puts them on course for hundreds of MPs, unless anti-Reform tactical voting is very efficient. And even then, there's a limit to what tactical voting can achieve as the Reform vote share in a seat increases.
It’s a solid and satisfying result for Reform, in one of their least promising areas. They would get an overall majority if these ethnic tendencies applied throughout the UK
It’s an abysmal vote for the Tories and LDs, but then that was expected. So they will fly under the radar for now
The true disaster is for Labour. THIRD. And way behind the Greens
A lot of ministers - like Wes Streeting - are doomed with results like this. And they are heading for a GE apocalypse. Remember Starmer visited the constituency two days ago and we were all told Labour were close to winning and it was all very tight
There will be a challenge to Starmer this year. And it will surely be successful. The question is: When and who?
Hannah Al-Othman
Speaking to journalists a little earlier, Matt Goodwin said: “I don’t think the progressives beat us, I think the progressives were told how to vote.”
He said it was “a coalition of Islamists and woke progressives that came together to dominate the constituency”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2026/feb/27/gorton-and-denton-byelection-result-labour-green-party-reform-uk-politics-latest-news?page=with:block-69a11d308f08bb356d853c18#block-69a11d308f08bb356d853c18
I'm not sure what to make of that yet, but I think we need a "Goodwin's Law".
Perhaps "If in doubt, attack the process, then the electorate, then anything else that is not your own performance.* " But it needs to be more elegant.
Based on the First Law of Cat: If in doubt, wash. That comes from "Jenny" by Paul Gallico.
“MPs and campaigners who have visited Gorton and Denton have all expressed surprise at how well the Labour vote is holding up. Starmer visited the seat this week. His presence is not a vote-winning tactic – far from it – so the visit was probably because of rising confidence that Labour can win.
Labour has managed to energise its activist base, despite polling showing a broad dissatisfaction with the government. The ban on Burnham’s candidacy was said by some to be likely to dissuade activists, but that hasn’t happened – Labour has had the most activists in its history register to campaign to get the vote out on Thursday.
Starmer allies who want the prime minister to take a more aggressively progressive position have been happy with how Starmer has drawn dividing lines with Reform, attacking Goodwin’s comments on whether people from minority ethnic backgrounds can be truly British.”
HAHAHAHAHA
It's clear where she thinks her vote came from: Working class and Muslim community.
But we have that Democracy Observer's assessment mentioned earlier, which raises questions.
Was it @Sandpit who held his nerve and continued to back the Greens? Congratulations.
One of the arguments in favour of opinion polling is that it should make it harder to steal an election, because a stolen election would be expected to be wildly at variance to the polling (unless they polling has also been nobbled). Yet, when there is such a variance we are very quick to give the polling a kicking for inaccuracy (though in this case the uncertainty range is large enough that I don't think we can say the polling was wrong, as such).
It's something I think about a bit.
I also wonder whether Kemi's "paedo (enabler) party" tag did even more to damage Labour than their own incompetence. Are we sure Burnham would have taken this had he been candidate? I have my doubts.
There was another attack on process this week from a similar trajectory, where Rupert Lowe tried to stop a Parliamentary enquiry by Judicial Review, which I cannot fathom.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
These are not easy votes to get back.
At least Reform are now openly attacking Islam. Before they were just doing it quietly.
That said the Green policy on NATO means I’d vote Reform over that as it’s such a fundamental issue.
A lot would have depended on the campaign and how Burnham handled questions about his aspirations for the Labour leadership, and his support for Starmer's policies. If he'd toed the government line then that could have blunted a lot of his appeal, and thrown more attention onto voters' annoyance with the government. If he'd started his own leadership campaign while campaigning in the by-election, then it could have divided Labour badly (and divided parties rarely win), or it could have galvanised voters in the constituency to vote for Burnham as a means to defeating Starmer, potentially giving Burnham a large victory.
As you can see, I find it hard to tell.
5Pillars is a UK-based news and commentary website that covers issues related to British Muslims, as well as developments in the broader Islamic world. Founded in 2013, it operates independently and is primarily funded through reader donations, subscriptions, and advertising. The platform has been described by analysts as promoting a conservative Sunni and pan-Islamist perspective, and as being critical of Ahmadis, LGBTQ+ individuals, and Zionism. The outlet frequently highlights Palestinian issues and addresses Islamophobia in Western contexts.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Until this week I thought that Reform would do it, then saw the Greens’ outwardly sectarian late-stage campaign and thought it would be close between the two. I’m very much not a fan of such identity politics, but don’t doubt that there are block votes to be had among certain ‘communities’.
I had little doubt that Labour would be 3rd after the Burnham debacle and the coming-about of the by-election in the first place. Way too easy to sit on your hands as a Labour voter or activist in the circumstances.
I also expect the alarms have been raised at the Telegraph and the Mail that the destruction of the Labour Party doesn't necessarily deliver the goodness of Farage but something far worse for them. I personally am more sanguine at the prospect of some undiluted communism.
People are too pc to talk about that though
It has the potential to reduce the pool within which tactical voting operates.
The utter irrelevance of the Conservatives is a worry.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
We see the opposite happening in Iran, where the regime has killed tens of thousands of young people but no-one appears to care.
Imagine if uk parties had active “friends of Russia” groups
Would it be odd if people refused to consider them ? Even though Russia is not a direct threat to us ? Not at all
For every two Reform or Labour voters, there were three Green ones.
Now, did they benefit from Gaza and the Muslim vote? I'm sure they did. And if it had been a 34-30 victory then that might have been what tipped them over the edge. But 41% of the vote... nah... that's not close.
The Greens won big.
Now, do I think they're a bunch of deluded anti-progress nutters? I do.
But they won this evening, and they won fair and square.
And that's what democracy is all about.
But anyway, my interest at the moment is less whether it is odd, or whether I agree, that people should vote on support/opposition to Israel/Palestine, but on how that effects future electoral outcomes.
Some people are voting for that reason, which has implications for the efficiency of anti-Reform tactical voting, but not enough that the Greens would want it to be a central part of their political identity, I would think.
Incidentally, green is a colour used to represent Islam in a lot of national flags, which won't do the Greens any harm at all.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
You would expect the vote changes to be different in a seat where the Tories were first or second at GE2024.
Badenoch has pulled the Tory polling up from its nadir. There's a long way to go to recover the ground lost since the last GE, but I think they are a lot less doomed than they appeared to be six months ago.
Edit: Obvs. PB.com is unusual, but we did see a fair few, "Tories for Starmer," yesterday, who would have voted tactically for Labour in this by-election. I forget what proportion they are according to the polling, but if you factor those in then you find more Labour to Reform switchers are necessary to make the numbers balance.
The “Community Leaders” haven’t quite the same style as those from Northern Ireland, but the theme tunes are familiar.
Immigration (legal) is surely the issue they have at least some positive record on, abandoning this would seem extremely dumb.
It was Goodwin what lost it.
Looking forward to 2029, the next Parliament is going to be a basket case with no one able to get their policies through. Back to another decade of stasis. I think I will stay in Spain. At least it’s sunny.
“Hamas has a long record of persecuting LGBTQ people in Gaza, including arrests, torture, and extrajudicial killings.
Homosexuality is illegal in Gaza under a mix of old British-era laws and Islamist rule.
Hamas security forces have arrested men accused of being gay, often charging them with “moral crimes” or using the accusation to coerce informants.
Human-rights groups (like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty) have documented cases of torture, beatings, and killings of suspected gay men.
Several Palestinians have fled Gaza or sought asylum abroad specifically because they feared execution or violence due to their sexuality.”
Meanwhile here is the deputy leader of the Greens, Mothin Ali, on October 7, 2023, calling the Hamas rape and murder of Israelis “the Al aqsa flood” and praising their “fight back against white settler colonialist imperialism”
https://x.com/adammaanit/status/1787805716402639226?s=46
It doesn't work as an attack line though. Neither of my boys support Hamas, but they do support an independent Palestine, as I do, and think Israel's genocide in Gaza an atrocity. This is also true of the many Muslims that I know, none of whom support Hamas.
Incidentally none of the Muslims that I know are bothered by LGBT rights at all. They seem to see LBGT rights as part of a "live and let live" approach to multiculturalism, and part of being British.
Her solution for tuition fees is not a good one however she astutely gave the attention to the issue of tuition fees and has charted a course that isn’t going after pensioners. Something I have been calling for, for years.
There’s a space for a Tory Party that would do very well with the let’s say 25-45 age bracket. She’s made the first attempt at speaking to them.
They need to do away with their NIMBYism streak next.
Goodwin like Farage is rather marmite. The wrong kind of candidate to be broadening Reform’s appeal IMHO.
Of course they’re now saying this seat was stolen or that this seat isn’t important anyway.
Nevertheless the death penalty for homosexuality is not part of the Palestinian penal code in Gaza or the West Bank.
The national opinion polling also shows Lab 24 voters switching heavily to Green, far more than to Reform. That switch is not just a byelection phenomenon.
The May elections in England are going to be a meltdown for Lab and Tories, a good night for Reform, but also a very good night for the Greens.
Both Starmer and Badenoch are going to struggle to survive the year as leader.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/british-muslims-strong-sense-of-belonging-poll-homosexuality-sharia-law
Perhaps that's improved.
Eeesh
Only 18% agreed.
Thanks to Mr. Eagles for a very good Green tip. I play with bottle tops compared to most here but it's always nice to finish ahead
Pretty dire for Labour.