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Very briefly punters had more faith in Polanski than Badenoch – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493

    1.22/8/11 doesn't look like a 3 horse race but sleep required ahead of the North West Counties football league Groundhop

    7 games in 3 days including 5 new grounds for me

    Ooh. Where you off to?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,264
    edited February 26

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm not sure what they mean by family voting. I quite often discuss with my wife who we are voting for.

    That wouldn't be what they're talking about. They must be talking about family voting in the polling station.
    Am I not allowed to discuss things in the polling station?
    It's against the law to discuss anything in the polling station to do with who you or anyone else might be voting for.
    I have to admit I was unaware of that.
    I was in a polling station once and a very old Rabbi who I knew vaguely said to me he'd forgotten his specs would I mind voting for him. I asked who he wanted to vote for and he said 'Conservative of course' and I went into the little cubicle and reluctantly did his bidding and no police were involved!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,041

    nico67 said:

    Labour voters rather than bemoaning the likely Green win should see this as the wake up call for the party .

    Could they even be third ?
    It’s entirely possible although if it’s a high turnout then they’d have a better chance of avoiding that . Regardless if the Green wins it’s the kick up the arse Labour need .

    As long as Reform lose it will be a good night .
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,954
    Foxy said:

    Reform moving in sharply now, ranging from 4.6 to 5.2. But on very small sums - could be a single punter.

    Back out to 7.8.

    I do not think it means much.
    Agreed - now ranging from 9 to 12, on bets of £2-3.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,168

    1.22/8/11 doesn't look like a 3 horse race but sleep required ahead of the North West Counties football league Groundhop

    7 games in 3 days including 5 new grounds for me

    You had better getter off to bed then, before we “ask you to explain” the Green parties
    100% Tax on "Super-Rich" Assets
    Scrapping Trident & Removing Foreign Nukes
    A "Tenants' Right to Demand" Energy Upgrades
    Phasing Out Private Landlords
    Radical Drug Law Reform
    And, last but not least, Abolishing the Home Office for a department that dismantles our borders and treats all migrants as "citizens in waiting".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,333
    Pro_Rata said:

    Isn't hiring out G-MEX / Manchester Central Convention Centre a bit over the top for a single by-election count, as opposed to 32 local ward elections or 6 or so constituencies at full election rounds.

    More than the average media interest I suppose.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    edited February 26
    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717

    Scott_xP said:

    As long as Goodwin got ReFUKed

    Actually losing would be a good thing for him, I am sad to say. I doubt they would win this constituency again in the actual GE in 2029 and so he would either have to do the chicken run or give up on running against Jenrick when the old man finally hangs up his stupid tweedy cap.
    I agree. I think that Reform never expected to win this seat, merely perform quite well. It’s not anywhere near their target territory

    So my presumption is this was a way for Goodwin to be blooded, as is traditional, in an unwinnable seat. Learn the ropes - then tackle a much more tempting seat at the GE

    Because he is a genuine asset. Even if the centrist dorks on here get the vapours at the mention of his name
  • What percentage of the electorate in Gorton and Denton are not UK citizens?

    Don't know, though it is bizarre you do not need to be a UK citizen to vote. Commonwealth citizenship is all that is needed.

    An odd legacy of Empire that should be abolished.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,966
    edited 12:01AM
    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one so much has the feel of a bellwether and pointer.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,168
    PB Tradition for “all nighters” sharing bits of music?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qijIVThA-kI
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,050
    dixiedean said:

    1.22/8/11 doesn't look like a 3 horse race but sleep required ahead of the North West Counties football league Groundhop

    7 games in 3 days including 5 new grounds for me

    Ooh. Where you off to?
    https://x.com/i/status/2026722645928996874
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,333
    Rumours that the OMRLP candidate Sir Oink A Lot has split the gammon vote...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,970
    Brixian59 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hope everyone has had smoked plenty of pot and had lots of tantric sex in anticipation of tonight's by-election

    HYUFD has been strangely quiet this evening.
    He's stuck on a train to Denton but he can't get off until Saturday
    Very good Brixian. A subtle railway reference. Nice.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,041

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council. and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one seems so much of a bellwether and pointer.

    Sometimes too much can be read into by-elections . The demographics of the seat and the Gaza issue were really ripe for the Greens to do well .

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,333

    What percentage of the electorate in Gorton and Denton are not UK citizens?

    Don't know, though it is bizarre you do not need to be a UK citizen to vote. Commonwealth citizenship is all that is needed.

    An odd legacy of Empire that should be abolished.
    The odd thing is that if you are from Rwanda or Mozambique then you can vote immediately, but if here 20 years but with an EU passport then you cannot.

    I think only those with permanent residence should be able to vote, but that should apply wherever they are from.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,966
    edited 12:05AM
    nico67 said:

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council. and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one seems so much of a bellwether and pointer.

    Sometimes too much can be read into by-elections . The demographics of the seat and the Gaza issue were really ripe for the Greens to do well .

    It's true, but it will still tell us something important about the prospects of the new versus old parties at least, I feel.

    The new parameters, or new context.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    "@GBPolitcs

    🚨NEW: The Conservative Party don’t expect to get their deposit back in the Gorton and Denton by-election

    [@CharlieSimpsonA]"

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2027172182636339482

    Not very surprising.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,603
    Sky News reckon it's a 3 horse race and too close to call.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,970
    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    I used to work for a company who had overseas operations in two territories: Thailand and Taiwan. I never went to either. But those who did were very charmed by Taiwan precisely because of its lack of good stuff. Because it wasn't really somewhere to see, it very quickly became somewhere simply to enjoy being. And the people were fabulously friendly and the food was good, of course.
    A friend of mine ended up married to a Taiwanese woman. That went less well. But that's another story.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,849
    edited 12:05AM
    Foxy said:

    What percentage of the electorate in Gorton and Denton are not UK citizens?

    Don't know, though it is bizarre you do not need to be a UK citizen to vote. Commonwealth citizenship is all that is needed.

    An odd legacy of Empire that should be abolished.
    The odd thing is that if you are from Rwanda or Mozambique then you can vote immediately, but if here 20 years but with an EU passport then you cannot.

    I think only those with permanent residence should be able to vote, but that should apply wherever they are from.
    It is slightly amusing that former French colonies have decided to join the Commonwealth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this Opinium data on voting by race in G&D:

    White
    Ref 41%
    Grn 23%
    Lab 22%
    Con 5%
    LD 3%

    EM
    Grn 37%
    Lab 36%
    Ref 8%
    Con 7%
    LD 5%

    https://x.com/LeoKearse/status/2026810162648887532/photo/1

    Since G+D is 57% white. And assuming no differential turnout (entirely implausible).

    That sums to Green 29.02 Labour 28.02 Reform 26.81.
    If anything like that was repeated across the country Reform would sweep to a huge landslide
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,034
    Martin Baxter (remember him?) a pundit on GB News for the by-election!

    [disclaimer - only watching for "research" purposes]
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,603
    Love this "family voting" in "". My mum and Dad have always gone to vote together lol
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,918

    Foxy said:

    What percentage of the electorate in Gorton and Denton are not UK citizens?

    Don't know, though it is bizarre you do not need to be a UK citizen to vote. Commonwealth citizenship is all that is needed.

    An odd legacy of Empire that should be abolished.
    The odd thing is that if you are from Rwanda or Mozambique then you can vote immediately, but if here 20 years but with an EU passport then you cannot.

    I think only those with permanent residence should be able to vote, but that should apply wherever they are from.
    It is slightly amusing that former French colonies have decided to join the Commonwealth.
    Rwanda was Belgian and Mozambique was Portugese
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,090
    edited 12:08AM

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one so much has the feel of a bellwether and pointer.

    It's certainly been hyped more than any other that I can remember. Like most mid-term by-elections with a catastrophically incompetent and unpopular government it seems significant at the time, but I'm sure that it'll be long forgotten by the time of the next general election, which is what matters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,333

    Foxy said:

    What percentage of the electorate in Gorton and Denton are not UK citizens?

    Don't know, though it is bizarre you do not need to be a UK citizen to vote. Commonwealth citizenship is all that is needed.

    An odd legacy of Empire that should be abolished.
    The odd thing is that if you are from Rwanda or Mozambique then you can vote immediately, but if here 20 years but with an EU passport then you cannot.

    I think only those with permanent residence should be able to vote, but that should apply wherever they are from.
    It is slightly amusing that former French colonies have decided to join the Commonwealth.
    Rwanda was German then Belgian, Mozambique was Portuguese.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,287
    Pulpstar said:

    Sky News reckon it's a 3 horse race and too close to call.

    Whereas the betting has:-

    Green 1.14
    Reform 11
    Labour 21

    So either the betting is wrong (and we've seen this before) or Sky reporters are.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,034
    Brixian59 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hope everyone has had smoked plenty of pot and had lots of tantric sex in anticipation of tonight's by-election

    HYUFD has been strangely quiet this evening.
    He's stuck on a train to Denton but he can't get off until Saturday
    Actually you can't get onto the train until Saturday either! There's only one train, each way, Saturday mornings only.

    [done by yours truly December 2019]
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,041

    nico67 said:

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council. and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one seems so much of a bellwether and pointer.

    Sometimes too much can be read into by-elections . The demographics of the seat and the Gaza issue were really ripe for the Greens to do well .

    It's true, but it will still tell us something inportant about the prosoects of thf new versus old parties at least, I feel.
    Labour chasing after Reform voters has been a disaster. Labours coalition has fragmented and they can no longer ride two horses . The 2024 election masked this because of the huge get the Tories out view of most voters .
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 55,333
    Pulpstar said:

    Love this "family voting" in "". My mum and Dad have always gone to vote together lol

    Does anyone know who "Democracy Volunteers" are? Who organises and funds them?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,034
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    What percentage of the electorate in Gorton and Denton are not UK citizens?

    Don't know, though it is bizarre you do not need to be a UK citizen to vote. Commonwealth citizenship is all that is needed.

    An odd legacy of Empire that should be abolished.
    The odd thing is that if you are from Rwanda or Mozambique then you can vote immediately, but if here 20 years but with an EU passport then you cannot.

    I think only those with permanent residence should be able to vote, but that should apply wherever they are from.
    It is slightly amusing that former French colonies have decided to join the Commonwealth.
    Rwanda was German then Belgian, Mozambique was Portuguese.
    However, there is a Fun Fact - the port of Chinde was a British concession from 1891 to 1923.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    Pulpstar said:

    Sky News reckon it's a 3 horse race and too close to call.

    First with the news.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 532
    Foxy said:

    Rumours that the OMRLP candidate Sir Oink A Lot has split the gammon vote...

    Pork barrel politics if its true
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,287
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council. and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one seems so much of a bellwether and pointer.

    Sometimes too much can be read into by-elections . The demographics of the seat and the Gaza issue were really ripe for the Greens to do well .

    It's true, but it will still tell us something inportant about the prosoects of thf new versus old parties at least, I feel.
    Labour chasing after Reform voters has been a disaster. Labours coalition has fragmented and they can no longer ride two horses . The 2024 election masked this because of the huge get the Tories out view of most voters .
    Not to mention the main beneficiaries of Labour smashing Reform would be the Conservatives.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 620

    Pulpstar said:

    Sky News reckon it's a 3 horse race and too close to call.

    Whereas the betting has:-

    Green 1.14
    Reform 11
    Labour 21

    So either the betting is wrong (and we've seen this before) or Sky reporters are.
    Sky have a vested interest in people not concluding early that the Greens have won and that they should go to bed.

    The odd thing is Labour reps still talking up their chances after the polls have closed yet being 21/1. Wouldn't they be saying things like "it might be a difficult night for the party" or suchlike if the odds were accurate?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
    Not made it to Alishan. I’ve had my fill of Taiwan

    It’s a tough place to get around as a solo traveller, despite the lovely people, excellent trains etc. So little English spoken. So culturally different - way more different than mainland China in a weird way. Tougher than Korea, tougher than Japan

    Because they get so few tourists it’s just not set up for tourists. And the total lack of a place to get a gin and tonic at 7pm puts it beyond the pale of civilisation, to be frank
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,585
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love this "family voting" in "". My mum and Dad have always gone to vote together lol

    Does anyone know who "Democracy Volunteers" are? Who organises and funds them?
    Had anyone heard of Democracy Volunteers before tonight?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,034
    George Galloway apparently endorsed the Greens on Wednesday.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEtGSBiYAD8
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 101,458
    Andy_JS said:

    "@GBPolitcs

    🚨NEW: The Conservative Party don’t expect to get their deposit back in the Gorton and Denton by-election

    [@CharlieSimpsonA]"

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2027172182636339482

    Not very surprising.

    No, but they can only take so many nails before the coffin lid is too much to overcome.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    Pro_Rata said:

    Isn't hiring out G-MEX / Manchester Central Convention Centre a bit over the top for a single by-election count, as opposed to 32 local ward elections or 6 or so constituencies at full election rounds.

    It might be.
    Except it's owned by Manchester City Council.
    So just running costs.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,509
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
    Not made it to Alishan. I’ve had my fill of Taiwan

    It’s a tough place to get around as a solo traveller, despite the lovely people, excellent trains etc. So little English spoken. So culturally different - way more different than mainland China in a weird way. Tougher than Korea, tougher than Japan

    Because they get so few tourists it’s just not set up for tourists. And the total lack of a place to get a gin and tonic at 7pm puts it beyond the pale of civilisation, to be frank
    Taiwan comes up a lot as a cycle touring location. I think the attraction is a full circumnavigation on excellent infrastructure in two weeks.

    Something to score off my list based on your evidence? For me I need good bars and interesting sights; the cycling/scenery isn't enough.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,900
    edited 12:23AM
    Green out to 1.36 having been below 1.2 approx 30 mins ago.

    Suggests there is a lot of guesswork going on.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    Pro_Rata said:

    1.22/8/11 doesn't look like a 3 horse race but sleep required ahead of the North West Counties football league Groundhop

    7 games in 3 days including 5 new grounds for me

    Brilliant stuff. Looked this one up - nice Blackpool, Central Lancs based circuit finishing at Daisy Hill's superbly named "Ginge Power Stadium"

    Enjoy your travels.
    Daisy Hill was my nearest non league club in my youth.
    The rougher end of rather twee (by that bit of South Lancashire) Westhoughton.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,966

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love this "family voting" in "". My mum and Dad have always gone to vote together lol

    Does anyone know who "Democracy Volunteers" are? Who organises and funds them?
    Had anyone heard of Democracy Volunteers before tonight?
    They seem to be run by John Ault, a former Liberal.Democrat local politician, and academic.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,585

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Love this "family voting" in "". My mum and Dad have always gone to vote together lol

    Does anyone know who "Democracy Volunteers" are? Who organises and funds them?
    Had anyone heard of Democracy Volunteers before tonight?
    They seem to be run by John Ault, a former Liberal.Democrat local politician, and academic.
    And seem to be funded by Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust.

    https://www.jrrt.org.uk/what-we-do/grants-awarded/democracy-volunteers/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 70,034
    Sky suggesting 9,000 postal votes
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    edited 12:30AM
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
    Not made it to Alishan. I’ve had my fill of Taiwan

    It’s a tough place to get around as a solo traveller, despite the lovely people, excellent trains etc. So little English spoken. So culturally different - way more different than mainland China in a weird way. Tougher than Korea, tougher than Japan

    Because they get so few tourists it’s just not set up for tourists. And the total lack of a place to get a gin and tonic at 7pm puts it beyond the pale of civilisation, to be frank
    Taiwan comes up a lot as a cycle touring location. I think the attraction is a full circumnavigation on excellent infrastructure in two weeks.

    Something to score off my list based on your evidence? For me I need good bars and interesting sights; the cycling/scenery isn't enough.
    That depends.
    If you love temples then yes. There's all kinds of weird stuff. But the culture shock is huge. Particularly if you're used to "exotic" places which are set up for tourists. There was very little signage not in Chinese.
    It's bewildering to suddenly be illiterate!
    I loved it so much I stayed for seven years.
    But I have the karma to be a Buddhist.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,041

    Sky suggesting 9,000 postal votes

    Given in 2024 the total votes cast was just over 36,500 that’s a very good turnout for postal votes .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493

    Sky suggesting 9,000 postal votes

    That's a lot.
    Someone's been organized.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,970
    dixiedean said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    1.22/8/11 doesn't look like a 3 horse race but sleep required ahead of the North West Counties football league Groundhop

    7 games in 3 days including 5 new grounds for me

    Brilliant stuff. Looked this one up - nice Blackpool, Central Lancs based circuit finishing at Daisy Hill's superbly named "Ginge Power Stadium"

    Enjoy your travels.
    Daisy Hill was my nearest non league club in my youth.
    The rougher end of rather twee (by that bit of South Lancashire) Westhoughton.
    The parentheses are important there, just to give context to any potential tourists.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    Btw.
    "Have you been up Daisy Hill?" was slang for did you get laid in my youth.
    I mention that since tantric sex is all we have til the declaration.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,168

    PB Tradition for “all nighters” sharing bits of music?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qijIVThA-kI

    So you got me all night now. I’m going to stay up now, and go out and check the shed for new arrivals intermittently, but I’m not expecting any.

    With my Mum on holiday, I can bottle feed in her kitchen 🤭

    More music https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO5xUkrXbxo
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,168
    dixiedean said:

    Btw.
    "Have you been up Daisy Hill?" was slang for did you get laid in my youth.
    I mention that since tantric sex is all we have til the declaration.

    You’d be so lucky! 🤭
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,970
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council. and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one seems so much of a bellwether and pointer.

    Sometimes too much can be read into by-elections . The demographics of the seat and the Gaza issue were really ripe for the Greens to do well .

    It's true, but it will still tell us something inportant about the prosoects of thf new versus old parties at least, I feel.
    Labour chasing after Reform voters has been a disaster. Labours coalition has fragmented and they can no longer ride two horses . The 2024 election masked this because of the huge get the Tories out view of most voters .
    Fair to say though that Labour chasing the votes of the far left in 2019 was also a disaster.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 620
    dixiedean said:

    Sky suggesting 9,000 postal votes

    That's a lot.
    Someone's been organized.
    Labour most likely right ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    edited 12:41AM
    Sam Coates, Sky News: Labour insiders think they've lost, and it's partly Shabana Mahmood's fault with her hard line immigration policies.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,041
    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council. and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one seems so much of a bellwether and pointer.

    Sometimes too much can be read into by-elections . The demographics of the seat and the Gaza issue were really ripe for the Greens to do well .

    It's true, but it will still tell us something inportant about the prosoects of thf new versus old parties at least, I feel.
    Labour chasing after Reform voters has been a disaster. Labours coalition has fragmented and they can no longer ride two horses . The 2024 election masked this because of the huge get the Tories out view of most voters .
    Fair to say though that Labour chasing the votes of the far left in 2019 was also a disaster.
    True but they’ve now gone too far the other way .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    nico67 said:

    Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Strange, I feel almost as motivated to stay up for this as for a general election.

    I normally bail out quite early on nearly all Council. and by-elections, but perhaps it's because this one seems so much of a bellwether and pointer.

    Sometimes too much can be read into by-elections . The demographics of the seat and the Gaza issue were really ripe for the Greens to do well .

    It's true, but it will still tell us something inportant about the prosoects of thf new versus old parties at least, I feel.
    Labour chasing after Reform voters has been a disaster. Labours coalition has fragmented and they can no longer ride two horses . The 2024 election masked this because of the huge get the Tories out view of most voters .
    Fair to say though that Labour chasing the votes of the far left in 2019 was also a disaster.
    True but they’ve now gone too far the other way .
    Too far for this particular constituency which is a lot more left-wing than average.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    edited 12:48AM
    Cookie said:

    Evening everyone. I've just got back from an unexpected evening out with a mate of mine, his mother in law, his brother in law and his brother in law's partner. There was a quiz, and we won, so I am feeling quite triumphant.
    While we are waiting for the result, I shall favour you with all my memories of the Gorton and Denton constituency.

    Denton: it's not the Denton out of Frost, but it feels like it. Functional and hard-edged. I had a friend from school from Denton, which seemed improbable at the time. I remember my 15 year old self asking incredulously 'are you really from Denton'? It was far from the roughest place in Greater Manchester, and indeed there are some big houses there amongst a lot of red-brick terraces, but it had an unupholsterness to it which seemed jarring to the suburban child that I was. My Dad had friends who had started out from there as bouncers or market traders before moving to better paid but still slightly chancy careers like insurance brokerage or sports journalism.
    I once saw Lancashire play a 'celebrity' (in a low level North West sense) XI at Denton Cricket Club.

    Gorton: While I have nothing positive to say about Gorton itself, it bleeds into Fairfield (which could look quite pleasant if you blur your eyes) and also into Belle Vue. Belle Vue once upon a time was Manchester's Las Vegas - it had a zoo, and a circus - both of which had closed down by the time I was around - and also a speedway team, a greyhound track, and a bowling alley (when such things were exotic). I remember going bowling there a lot in my too-young-to-have-any-chance-of-getting-served-in-pubs days. Always a slight edge to it; always a feeling there could be a fight around the corner. I remember Gary Pallister in the adjacent lane once. Outside (this was the late 80s), there was a multiplex cinema in the days when it was a novelty to have one, various fast food options, and an air of menace. Once the bowling alley opened in Stockport in 1990 I never went to Belle Vue again, and slightly lamented the lack of danger.

    Levenshulme: My grandmother, it strikes me now, was born in Levenshulme in 1914. It was threatening upward mobility without ever achieving it then, and that has also been its status for the last 25 years. Levenshulme will be the next Didsbury. Levenshulme will be the next Chorlton. Levenshulme will be the next Heaton Moor. It never quite makes it, it never will. There is some really quite edifying housing there. But the main drag is depressing. My mental image of Levenshulme is a traffic jam on the A6 through businesses which appeal in no way. Always bypassed by fashion; never bypassed by an actual bypass (which might actually benefit it). The train line through Levenshulme, however, for those commuting in to Manchester from the comfortable suburbs of Stockport, at the right time of year, affords a rather glorious sunrise over the Pennines and sunset over the South Manchester plain. So that's something.

    I lived in this constituency for a year when we came back from Taiwan with a pregnant partner. And through the first months of a very sickly child who never slept loñger than an hour and was in and out of hospital.
    Saw the millennium in delighted that we wouldn't be on the local news as first baby.
    Fireworks were impressive.
    In a rambling detached house in the only small close of detached houses for miles around.
    Never saw anyone shot.
    City got promoted back to the Championship. Much joy.
    The sound of Belle Vue Aces speedway woke eldest up.
    Next door dealt drugs.
    Never quite established if it was Longsight or Levenshulme.
    Like most things it wasn't important.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
    Not made it to Alishan. I’ve had my fill of Taiwan

    It’s a tough place to get around as a solo traveller, despite the lovely people, excellent trains etc. So little English spoken. So culturally different - way more different than mainland China in a weird way. Tougher than Korea, tougher than Japan

    Because they get so few tourists it’s just not set up for tourists. And the total lack of a place to get a gin and tonic at 7pm puts it beyond the pale of civilisation, to be frank
    Taiwan comes up a lot as a cycle touring location. I think the attraction is a full circumnavigation on excellent infrastructure in two weeks.

    Something to score off my list based on your evidence? For me I need good bars and interesting sights; the cycling/scenery isn't enough.
    I did a whole long post answering this bit it seems to have vanished (to be fair I am on a train in the Taiwanese mountains)

    In short: yes, save your Taiwanese dollars for better destinations. Unless you’re being paid to come here

    The best way to see Taiwan is to do a two night stopover in Taipei en route to somewhere more interesting. Then you can try the superb food, meet the lovely people, go to a night market, climb a mountain, get freaked out by low flying jets and the sense of imminent war, and visit the world class national museum. Then leave. Sorted
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,970
    Greater Manchester specialises in depressingly named suburbs whixh turn out to be just as depressing as the name suggests. In addition to Gorton, I cite the examples of Weaste (Salford), Mumps (Oldham) and Failinge (Rochdale).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    edited 12:52AM
    The hotel we were staying at in Taiwan gave us a huge local fruit as a present when we left. Unfortunately we had to leave it behind because there was no way of taking in on the plane. Always remember that nice gesture.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,954
    MikeL said:

    Green out to 1.36 having been below 1.2 approx 30 mins ago.

    Suggests there is a lot of guesswork going on.

    Yes, back to 1.15 now, with slightly larger sums involved (£100+ per 0.2).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,034
    Cookie said:

    Greater Manchester specialises in depressingly named suburbs whixh turn out to be just as depressing as the name suggests. In addition to Gorton, I cite the examples of Weaste (Salford), Mumps (Oldham) and Failinge (Rochdale).

    Chorlton at least gave us the Wheelies!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apO2U8AmNN4
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,391
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
    Not made it to Alishan. I’ve had my fill of Taiwan

    It’s a tough place to get around as a solo traveller, despite the lovely people, excellent trains etc. So little English spoken. So culturally different - way more different than mainland China in a weird way. Tougher than Korea, tougher than Japan

    Because they get so few tourists it’s just not set up for tourists. And the total lack of a place to get a gin and tonic at 7pm puts it beyond the pale of civilisation, to be frank
    Taiwan comes up a lot as a cycle touring location. I think the attraction is a full circumnavigation on excellent infrastructure in two weeks.

    Something to score off my list based on your evidence? For me I need good bars and interesting sights; the cycling/scenery isn't enough.
    I did a whole long post answering this bit it seems to have vanished (to be fair I am on a train in the Taiwanese mountains)

    In short: yes, save your Taiwanese dollars for better destinations. Unless you’re being paid to come here

    The best way to see Taiwan is to do a two night stopover in Taipei en route to somewhere more interesting. Then you can try the superb food, meet the lovely people, go to a night market, climb a mountain, get freaked out by low flying jets and the sense of imminent war, and visit the world class national museum. Then leave. Sorted
    Apparently elderly Koreans love visiting because it reminds them of Korea in their youth. Not the greatest endorsement!

    I do wonder what would happen if the Taiwanese could be persuaded to scrub the outside of their buildings and stop leaving piles of rubbish outside. I mean, plenty of urban Japan is objectively ugly too - but it's a lot more pleasant. The government would need to finish enclosing all the sewers too. That smell the locals claim is stinky tofu ain't always stinky tofu..
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,074
    edited 12:54AM
    Andy_JS said:

    Sam Coates, Sky News: Labour insiders think they've lost, and it's partly Shabana Mahmood's fault with her hard line immigration policies.

    LOL! Of course, it wouldn't be Starmer, Mandelson and a political scandal the like if which we've probably not seen in 100 years, would it? 😂
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    edited 12:57AM
    Sky News, Jon Craig: Green victory most likely. Greens beating Labour in Gorton, Reform winning in Denton with neck-and-neck for second place between Greens and Labour in that part of the constituency.

    Both Green and Labour insiders saying Greens have probably won.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,954

    MikeL said:

    Green out to 1.36 having been below 1.2 approx 30 mins ago.

    Suggests there is a lot of guesswork going on.

    Yes, back to 1.15 now, with slightly larger sums involved (£100+ per 0.2).
    And down to 1.06 now - someone is very confident.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,050
    edited 1:03AM
    Cookie said:

    Evening everyone. I've just got back from an unexpected evening out with a mate of mine, his mother in law, his brother in law and his brother in law's partner. There was a quiz, and we won, so I am feeling quite triumphant.
    While we are waiting for the result, I shall favour you with all my memories of the Gorton and Denton constituency.

    Denton: it's not the Denton out of Frost, but it feels like it. Functional and hard-edged. I had a friend from school from Denton, which seemed improbable at the time. I remember my 15 year old self asking incredulously 'are you really from Denton'? It was far from the roughest place in Greater Manchester, and indeed there are some big houses there amongst a lot of red-brick terraces, but it had an unupholsterness to it which seemed jarring to the suburban child that I was. My Dad had friends who had started out from there as bouncers or market traders before moving to better paid but still slightly chancy careers like insurance brokerage or sports journalism.
    I once saw Lancashire play a 'celebrity' (in a low level North West sense) XI at Denton Cricket Club.

    Gorton: While I have nothing positive to say about Gorton itself, it bleeds into Fairfield (which could look quite pleasant if you blur your eyes) and also into Belle Vue. Belle Vue once upon a time was Manchester's Las Vegas - it had a zoo, and a circus - both of which had closed down by the time I was around - and also a speedway team, a greyhound track, and a bowling alley (when such things were exotic). I remember going bowling there a lot in my too-young-to-have-any-chance-of-getting-served-in-pubs days. Always a slight edge to it; always a feeling there could be a fight around the corner. I remember Gary Pallister in the adjacent lane once. Outside (this was the late 80s), there was a multiplex cinema in the days when it was a novelty to have one, various fast food options, and an air of menace. Once the bowling alley opened in Stockport in 1990 I never went to Belle Vue again, and slightly lamented the lack of danger.

    Levenshulme: My grandmother, it strikes me now, was born in Levenshulme in 1914. It was threatening upward mobility without ever achieving it then, and that has also been its status for the last 25 years. Levenshulme will be the next Didsbury. Levenshulme will be the next Chorlton. Levenshulme will be the next Heaton Moor. It never quite makes it, it never will. There is some really quite edifying housing there. But the main drag is depressing. My mental image of Levenshulme is a traffic jam on the A6 through businesses which appeal in no way. Always bypassed by fashion; never bypassed by an actual bypass (which might actually benefit it). The train line through Levenshulme, however, for those commuting in to Manchester from the comfortable suburbs of Stockport, at the right time of year, affords a rather glorious sunrise over the Pennines and sunset over the South Manchester plain. So that's something.

    Did the circus. Did the Zoo - even my 6/7 year old self realised what a depressing outdated shit hole that was - good, good riddance. Dad worked for a while post retirement at the massive car auction, I missed out on an early summer job helping work the totalisator at the dog track.

    Did the cinema once or twice. Got the worst food poisoning I ever had from a Fatty Arbuckle's restaurant across the way, the chain shut not long after when the till electrocuted to death some poor lad.

    I sit in my living room looking at a fireplace bought in Levenshulme, sadly, though better than above, we ended up at the McDonald's opposite the (just over into Stockport) McVities factory that day. A cousin got married, I'm not sure the association at the church in Gorton on the way into Town.

    I've done many circuits of Debdale Park when I was young and lived in Denton (NE), used to sing little ditties about the Kingston stink (a horse rendering site / glue factory called Smith Brothers) - the proper distance to keep behind one of their lorries was about half a mile. Summer 1976 was the last straw there.

    I got done for that classic one time youthful misdemeanour of biting of a girl at school in reception in the lunch queue, I remember school milk being withdrawn. I ran away once but got stuck at the main road. Dad collected for the pools around Denton, I went with him - Vernon's iirc. I didn't go to get a neighbour's nicked goods back from the fence pub in Haughton Green.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717
    Andy_JS said:

    The hotel we were staying at in Taiwan gave us a huge local fruit as a present when we left. Unfortunately we had to leave it behind because there was no way of taking in on the plane. Always remember that nice gesture.

    They give you presents all the time. They are outstandingly kind and friendly. They will walk half an hour the wrong way to show you the one place in town serving mediocre beer at 8pm

    I’ve sometimes wondered if there is an inverse relationship between the beauty of a country and the friendliness of the people

    eg its hard to find comparisons for Taiwan, it’s so unusual, but two that spring to mind are Moldova and Armenia - in very different ways

    Both of them are shitholes (sorry Moldova and Armenia) but both are full of the most brilliant people. Whereas France, perhaps the loveliest country on earth per square mile, has some of the grumpiest, surliest people (not always, but more often than it should)

    Moldova and Armenia also have surprisingly good food

    However my theory immediately collapses when I think of Italy. Stunning country but the people are also super charming
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
    Not made it to Alishan. I’ve had my fill of Taiwan

    It’s a tough place to get around as a solo traveller, despite the lovely people, excellent trains etc. So little English spoken. So culturally different - way more different than mainland China in a weird way. Tougher than Korea, tougher than Japan

    Because they get so few tourists it’s just not set up for tourists. And the total lack of a place to get a gin and tonic at 7pm puts it beyond the pale of civilisation, to be frank
    Taiwan comes up a lot as a cycle touring location. I think the attraction is a full circumnavigation on excellent infrastructure in two weeks.

    Something to score off my list based on your evidence? For me I need good bars and interesting sights; the cycling/scenery isn't enough.
    I did a whole long post answering this bit it seems to have vanished (to be fair I am on a train in the Taiwanese mountains)

    In short: yes, save your Taiwanese dollars for better destinations. Unless you’re being paid to come here

    The best way to see Taiwan is to do a two night stopover in Taipei en route to somewhere more interesting. Then you can try the superb food, meet the lovely people, go to a night market, climb a mountain, get freaked out by low flying jets and the sense of imminent war, and visit the world class national museum. Then leave. Sorted
    Apparently elderly Koreans love visiting because it reminds them of Korea in their youth. Not the greatest endorsement!

    I do wonder what would happen if the Taiwanese could be persuaded to scrub the outside of their buildings and stop leaving piles of rubbish outside. I mean, plenty of urban Japan is objectively ugly too - but it's a lot more pleasant. The government would need to finish enclosing all the sewers too. That smell the locals claim is stinky tofu ain't always stinky tofu..
    But without that anarchic sensibility it wouldn't be Taiwan.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717
    Cookie said:

    Greater Manchester specialises in depressingly named suburbs whixh turn out to be just as depressing as the name suggests. In addition to Gorton, I cite the examples of Weaste (Salford), Mumps (Oldham) and Failinge (Rochdale).

    Best comment of the by election. Superb
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,331
    '@BritainVotesNow
    🚨 COUNT UPDATE:

    Looking at the ballot stacks, it seems likely the Greens are on course for victory in Gorton and Denton, with Reform second.

    Labour are looking on course for a distant third place.'
    https://x.com/BritainVotesNow/status/2027186098623918124?s=20
  • £50 lost then.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,970
    edited 1:12AM
    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Evening everyone. I've just got back from an unexpected evening out with a mate of mine, his mother in law, his brother in law and his brother in law's partner. There was a quiz, and we won, so I am feeling quite triumphant.
    While we are waiting for the result, I shall favour you with all my memories of the Gorton and Denton constituency.

    Denton: it's not the Denton out of Frost, but it feels like it. Functional and hard-edged. I had a friend from school from Denton, which seemed improbable at the time. I remember my 15 year old self asking incredulously 'are you really from Denton'? It was far from the roughest place in Greater Manchester, and indeed there are some big houses there amongst a lot of red-brick terraces, but it had an unupholsterness to it which seemed jarring to the suburban child that I was. My Dad had friends who had started out from there as bouncers or market traders before moving to better paid but still slightly chancy careers like insurance brokerage or sports journalism.
    I once saw Lancashire play a 'celebrity' (in a low level North West sense) XI at Denton Cricket Club.

    Gorton: While I have nothing positive to say about Gorton itself, it bleeds into Fairfield (which could look quite pleasant if you blur your eyes) and also into Belle Vue. Belle Vue once upon a time was Manchester's Las Vegas - it had a zoo, and a circus - both of which had closed down by the time I was around - and also a speedway team, a greyhound track, and a bowling alley (when such things were exotic). I remember going bowling there a lot in my too-young-to-have-any-chance-of-getting-served-in-pubs days. Always a slight edge to it; always a feeling there could be a fight around the corner. I remember Gary Pallister in the adjacent lane once. Outside (this was the late 80s), there was a multiplex cinema in the days when it was a novelty to have one, various fast food options, and an air of menace. Once the bowling alley opened in Stockport in 1990 I never went to Belle Vue again, and slightly lamented the lack of danger.

    Levenshulme: My grandmother, it strikes me now, was born in Levenshulme in 1914. It was threatening upward mobility without ever achieving it then, and that has also been its status for the last 25 years. Levenshulme will be the next Didsbury. Levenshulme will be the next Chorlton. Levenshulme will be the next Heaton Moor. It never quite makes it, it never will. There is some really quite edifying housing there. But the main drag is depressing. My mental image of Levenshulme is a traffic jam on the A6 through businesses which appeal in no way. Always bypassed by fashion; never bypassed by an actual bypass (which might actually benefit it). The train line through Levenshulme, however, for those commuting in to Manchester from the comfortable suburbs of Stockport, at the right time of year, affords a rather glorious sunrise over the Pennines and sunset over the South Manchester plain. So that's something.

    Did the circus. Did the Zoo - even my 6/7 year old self realised what a depressing outdated shit hole that was - good, good riddance. Dad worked for a while post retirement at the massive car auction, I missed out on an early summer job helping work the totalisator at the dog track.

    Did the cinema once or twice. Got the worst food poisoning I ever had from a Fatty Arbuckle's restaurant across the way, the chain shut not long after when the till electrocuted to death some poor lad.

    I sit in my living room looking at a fireplace bought in Levenshulme, sadly, though better than above, we ended up at the McDonald's opposite the (just over into Stockport) McVities factory that day. A cousin got married, I'm not sure the association at the church in Gorton on the way into Town.

    I've done many circuits of Debdale Park when I was young and lived in Denton (NE), used to sing little ditties about the Kingston stink (a horse rendering site / glue factory called Smith Brothers) - the proper distance to keep behind one of their lorries was about half a mile. Summer 1976 was the last straw there.

    I got done for that classic one time youthful misdemeanour of biting of a girl at school in reception in the lunch queue, I remember school milk being withdrawn. I ran away once but got stuck at the main road. Dad collected for the pools around Denton, I went with him - Vernon's iirc. I didn't go to get a neighbour's nicked goods back from the fence pub in Haughton Green.
    I enjoyed, I must admit, rambling on myself on this topic, but absolutely loved the reminiscences of @Pro_Rata above and @dixiedean . Poetic and touching. Like Northwestern Simon Armitages.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    HYUFD said:

    '@BritainVotesNow
    🚨 COUNT UPDATE:

    Looking at the ballot stacks, it seems likely the Greens are on course for victory in Gorton and Denton, with Reform second.

    Labour are looking on course for a distant third place.'
    https://x.com/BritainVotesNow/status/2027186098623918124?s=20

    Wasn't expecting the third place to be distant, I must admit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Greetings from Taiwan. Which is in the perfect time zone for watching late night UK by elections

    It’s 7.30am and I’m on my way to Taipei to get the fuck odd this “stupid ball of mud”

    Taiwan is a strange place. I’ve now been all around it and I would recommend it as somewhere unusual for the gourmet traveller who’s been everywhere. The food is generally suoerb and the people are fabulously friendly

    The mountains are striking and the national museum is ace

    But after that you start to run out of good stuff. The towns are so relentlessly ugly it begins to grind you down. Etc

    Onwards to Gorton and Wotsit

    The most friendly people in the world of anywhere I've visited so far. Have you been to Alishan?
    Not made it to Alishan. I’ve had my fill of Taiwan

    It’s a tough place to get around as a solo traveller, despite the lovely people, excellent trains etc. So little English spoken. So culturally different - way more different than mainland China in a weird way. Tougher than Korea, tougher than Japan

    Because they get so few tourists it’s just not set up for tourists. And the total lack of a place to get a gin and tonic at 7pm puts it beyond the pale of civilisation, to be frank
    Taiwan comes up a lot as a cycle touring location. I think the attraction is a full circumnavigation on excellent infrastructure in two weeks.

    Something to score off my list based on your evidence? For me I need good bars and interesting sights; the cycling/scenery isn't enough.
    I did a whole long post answering this bit it seems to have vanished (to be fair I am on a train in the Taiwanese mountains)

    In short: yes, save your Taiwanese dollars for better destinations. Unless you’re being paid to come here

    The best way to see Taiwan is to do a two night stopover in Taipei en route to somewhere more interesting. Then you can try the superb food, meet the lovely people, go to a night market, climb a mountain, get freaked out by low flying jets and the sense of imminent war, and visit the world class national museum. Then leave. Sorted
    Apparently elderly Koreans love visiting because it reminds them of Korea in their youth. Not the greatest endorsement!

    I do wonder what would happen if the Taiwanese could be persuaded to scrub the outside of their buildings and stop leaving piles of rubbish outside. I mean, plenty of urban Japan is objectively ugly too - but it's a lot more pleasant. The government would need to finish enclosing all the sewers too. That smell the locals claim is stinky tofu ain't always stinky tofu..
    Yes. The particular smell of Taiwan. Few countries have a very particular smell. Taiwan is one. I suspect - like you - it is a mix of stinky tofu and “slightly iffy plumbing”

    The USSR used to have a definite smell. Of unwashed people, generational grime and cheap cleaning materials. It was unmistakeable and ubiquitous. Seems to have largely gone along with communism

    Portugal used to smell of salt cod. But they have apparently noticed it was off putting and it’s been banished

    The untouched parts of the Mediterranean have a divine smell. The maquis. The herbs. The sun warmed pine

    The Antarctic has the best smell of all. The cleanest air in the world. Like nectar. Amazing

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,092
    Can I get in early with an 'Andy Burnham would have won'?
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 532
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News, Jon Craig: Green victory most likely. Greens beating Labour in Gorton, Reform winning in Denton with neck-and-neck for second place between Greens and Labour in that part of the constituency.

    Both Green and Labour insiders saying Greens have probably won.

    assuming the Greens have won,this would be their first proper northern English seat in the Commons. Long term, I think they are in a good position to challenge for a lot of inner city constituencies.

    Labour should be quite worried about the defence of any urban seat which has a high population of students/graduates, and ethnic minorities. In working class seats they have the opposite problem, being tackled by Reform. Of course in the shires, Lab have generally been weaker and the Lib Dems and Tories stronger.

    I don't think it can be underplayed, long term the UK is fast moving away from the two party system dominating politics. I get the impression that this time it will be very difficult for Ms Badenoch and Mr Starmer to entice voters back to their causes

    The next question will be, when will FPTP break? I think we will be pretty close to this within a decade

    Another point - in the event of a Green win, I think the Greens winning a constituency at Holyrood becomes very plausible.

    Long term, UK Labour should be more worried about the Greens than Reform
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,074
    edited 1:16AM
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    '@BritainVotesNow
    🚨 COUNT UPDATE:

    Looking at the ballot stacks, it seems likely the Greens are on course for victory in Gorton and Denton, with Reform second.

    Labour are looking on course for a distant third place.'
    https://x.com/BritainVotesNow/status/2027186098623918124?s=20

    Wasn't expecting the third place to be distant, I must admit.
    Why? Who in their right mind would vote for Labour?

    Labour is at Conservative Party 2022 to 2024 levels, but where-as it took the Tories 12 years to get into that sorry state it's taken Labour... 18 months?

    WTG Sir Kier! 😂
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,493
    Cookie said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Evening everyone. I've just got back from an unexpected evening out with a mate of mine, his mother in law, his brother in law and his brother in law's partner. There was a quiz, and we won, so I am feeling quite triumphant.
    While we are waiting for the result, I shall favour you with all my memories of the Gorton and Denton constituency.

    Denton: it's not the Denton out of Frost, but it feels like it. Functional and hard-edged. I had a friend from school from Denton, which seemed improbable at the time. I remember my 15 year old self asking incredulously 'are you really from Denton'? It was far from the roughest place in Greater Manchester, and indeed there are some big houses there amongst a lot of red-brick terraces, but it had an unupholsterness to it which seemed jarring to the suburban child that I was. My Dad had friends who had started out from there as bouncers or market traders before moving to better paid but still slightly chancy careers like insurance brokerage or sports journalism.
    I once saw Lancashire play a 'celebrity' (in a low level North West sense) XI at Denton Cricket Club.

    Gorton: While I have nothing positive to say about Gorton itself, it bleeds into Fairfield (which could look quite pleasant if you blur your eyes) and also into Belle Vue. Belle Vue once upon a time was Manchester's Las Vegas - it had a zoo, and a circus - both of which had closed down by the time I was around - and also a speedway team, a greyhound track, and a bowling alley (when such things were exotic). I remember going bowling there a lot in my too-young-to-have-any-chance-of-getting-served-in-pubs days. Always a slight edge to it; always a feeling there could be a fight around the corner. I remember Gary Pallister in the adjacent lane once. Outside (this was the late 80s), there was a multiplex cinema in the days when it was a novelty to have one, various fast food options, and an air of menace. Once the bowling alley opened in Stockport in 1990 I never went to Belle Vue again, and slightly lamented the lack of danger.

    Levenshulme: My grandmother, it strikes me now, was born in Levenshulme in 1914. It was threatening upward mobility without ever achieving it then, and that has also been its status for the last 25 years. Levenshulme will be the next Didsbury. Levenshulme will be the next Chorlton. Levenshulme will be the next Heaton Moor. It never quite makes it, it never will. There is some really quite edifying housing there. But the main drag is depressing. My mental image of Levenshulme is a traffic jam on the A6 through businesses which appeal in no way. Always bypassed by fashion; never bypassed by an actual bypass (which might actually benefit it). The train line through Levenshulme, however, for those commuting in to Manchester from the comfortable suburbs of Stockport, at the right time of year, affords a rather glorious sunrise over the Pennines and sunset over the South Manchester plain. So that's something.

    Did the circus. Did the Zoo - even my 6/7 year old self realised what a depressing outdated shit hole that was - good, good riddance. Dad worked for a while post retirement at the massive car auction, I missed out on an early summer job helping work the totalisator at the dog track.

    Did the cinema once or twice. Got the worst food poisoning I ever had from a Fatty Arbuckle's restaurant across the way, the chain shut not long after when the till electrocuted to death some poor lad.

    I sit in my living room looking at a fireplace bought in Levenshulme, sadly, though better than above, we ended up at the McDonald's opposite the (just over into Stockport) McVities factory that day. A cousin got married, I'm not sure the association at the church in Gorton on the way into Town.

    I've done many circuits of Debdale Park when I was young and lived in Denton (NE), used to sing little ditties about the Kingston stink (a horse rendering site / glue factory called Smith Brothers) - the proper distance to keep behind one of their lorries was about half a mile. Summer 1976 was the last straw there.

    I got done for that classic one time youthful misdemeanour of biting of a girl at school in reception in the lunch queue, I remember school milk being withdrawn. I ran away once but got stuck at the main road. Dad collected for the pools around Denton, I went with him - Vernon's iirc. I didn't go to get a neighbour's nicked goods back from the fence pub in Haughton Green.
    I enjoyed, I must admit, rambling on myself on this topic, but absolutely loved the reminiscences of @Pro_Rata above and @dixiedean . Poetic and touching. Like Northwestern Simon Armitages.
    Cheers
    One of us is Armitage.
    The other one Shanks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 58,034
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    '@BritainVotesNow
    🚨 COUNT UPDATE:

    Looking at the ballot stacks, it seems likely the Greens are on course for victory in Gorton and Denton, with Reform second.

    Labour are looking on course for a distant third place.'
    https://x.com/BritainVotesNow/status/2027186098623918124?s=20

    Wasn't expecting the third place to be distant, I must admit.
    Why? Who in their right mind would vote for Labour?

    Labour is at Conservative Party 2022 to 2024 levels, but where-as it took the Tories 12 years to get into that sorry state it's taken Labour... 18 months?

    WTG Sir Kier! 😂
    Keir and Present Danger!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 134,331
    edited 1:20AM
    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News, Jon Craig: Green victory most likely. Greens beating Labour in Gorton, Reform winning in Denton with neck-and-neck for second place between Greens and Labour in that part of the constituency.

    Both Green and Labour insiders saying Greens have probably won.

    assuming the Greens have won,this would be their first proper northern English seat in the Commons. Long term, I think they are in a good position to challenge for a lot of inner city constituencies.

    Labour should be quite worried about the defence of any urban seat which has a high population of students/graduates, and ethnic minorities. In working class seats they have the opposite problem, being tackled by Reform. Of course in the shires, Lab have generally been weaker and the Lib Dems and Tories stronger.

    I don't think it can be underplayed, long term the UK is fast moving away from the two party system dominating politics. I get the impression that this time it will be very difficult for Ms Badenoch and Mr Starmer to entice voters back to their causes

    The next question will be, when will FPTP break? I think we will be pretty close to this within a decade

    Another point - in the event of a Green win, I think the Greens winning a constituency at Holyrood becomes very plausible.

    Long term, UK Labour should be more worried about the Greens than Reform
    In their heartland city seats yes the Greens are the threat but in swing seat towns and outer suburbs it is Reform the threat now, Labour are being squeezed at both ends. If the early reports are true tonight will be an absolute disaster of a result for Starmer and Labour and partly their fault, Burnham may well have held the seat
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 532

    Can I get in early with an 'Andy Burnham would have won'?

    He may have just dodged a bullet here. The best situation for any potential challenge for Starmer is for SKS to limp on to the inevitable drubbings in May.

    Then we will see who really wants the job, assuming the hierarchy don't all chicken out.

    How exactly Burnham engineers a return to the Commons pre July 2029, I don't know
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,783
    Dan Hodges: “This is existential for Labour. Starmer has sacrificed one of Labour’s safest seats to save his own skin.”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    edited 1:22AM
    I was never sure who would win, but always thought Labour would lose, however narrowly it might be. Voters always use by-elections to kick the govrening party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,783
    https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/2027187249192779877

    Now the official Labour machine is sounding downbeat

    Labour sources: "Early signs at the count indicate the Greens have been able to turn out support in a way they wouldn't be able to replicate at a General Election"
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 4,092
    DoctorG said:

    Can I get in early with an 'Andy Burnham would have won'?

    He may have just dodged a bullet here. The best situation for any potential challenge for Starmer is for SKS to limp on to the inevitable drubbings in May.

    Then we will see who really wants the job, assuming the hierarchy don't all chicken out.

    How exactly Burnham engineers a return to the Commons pre July 2029, I don't know
    That's definitely true, the rinsing that they'll get in May is going to make this look like nothing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News, Jon Craig: Green victory most likely. Greens beating Labour in Gorton, Reform winning in Denton with neck-and-neck for second place between Greens and Labour in that part of the constituency.

    Both Green and Labour insiders saying Greens have probably won.

    assuming the Greens have won,this would be their first proper northern English seat in the Commons. Long term, I think they are in a good position to challenge for a lot of inner city constituencies.

    Labour should be quite worried about the defence of any urban seat which has a high population of students/graduates, and ethnic minorities. In working class seats they have the opposite problem, being tackled by Reform. Of course in the shires, Lab have generally been weaker and the Lib Dems and Tories stronger.

    I don't think it can be underplayed, long term the UK is fast moving away from the two party system dominating politics. I get the impression that this time it will be very difficult for Ms Badenoch and Mr Starmer to entice voters back to their causes

    The next question will be, when will FPTP break? I think we will be pretty close to this within a decade

    Another point - in the event of a Green win, I think the Greens winning a constituency at Holyrood becomes very plausible.

    Long term, UK Labour should be more worried about the Greens than Reform
    In their heartland city seats yes the Greens are the threat but in swing seat towns and outer suburbs it is Reform the threat now, Labour are being squeezed at both ends. If the early reports are true tonight will be an absolute disaster of a result for Starmer and Labour and partly their fault, Burnham may well have held the seat
    This result could be good for both Tories and Reform because it'll make Labour think they need to be more left-wing, but this constituency is very untypical. It's far more left-wing than average.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,050
    edited 1:26AM
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    Evening everyone. I've just got back from an unexpected evening out with a mate of mine, his mother in law, his brother in law and his brother in law's partner. There was a quiz, and we won, so I am feeling quite triumphant.
    While we are waiting for the result, I shall favour you with all my memories of the Gorton and Denton constituency.

    Denton: it's not the Denton out of Frost, but it feels like it. Functional and hard-edged. I had a friend from school from Denton, which seemed improbable at the time. I remember my 15 year old self asking incredulously 'are you really from Denton'? It was far from the roughest place in Greater Manchester, and indeed there are some big houses there amongst a lot of red-brick terraces, but it had an unupholsterness to it which seemed jarring to the suburban child that I was. My Dad had friends who had started out from there as bouncers or market traders before moving to better paid but still slightly chancy careers like insurance brokerage or sports journalism.
    I once saw Lancashire play a 'celebrity' (in a low level North West sense) XI at Denton Cricket Club.

    Gorton: While I have nothing positive to say about Gorton itself, it bleeds into Fairfield (which could look quite pleasant if you blur your eyes) and also into Belle Vue. Belle Vue once upon a time was Manchester's Las Vegas - it had a zoo, and a circus - both of which had closed down by the time I was around - and also a speedway team, a greyhound track, and a bowling alley (when such things were exotic). I remember going bowling there a lot in my too-young-to-have-any-chance-of-getting-served-in-pubs days. Always a slight edge to it; always a feeling there could be a fight around the corner. I remember Gary Pallister in the adjacent lane once. Outside (this was the late 80s), there was a multiplex cinema in the days when it was a novelty to have one, various fast food options, and an air of menace. Once the bowling alley opened in Stockport in 1990 I never went to Belle Vue again, and slightly lamented the lack of danger.

    Levenshulme: My grandmother, it strikes me now, was born in Levenshulme in 1914. It was threatening upward mobility without ever achieving it then, and that has also been its status for the last 25 years. Levenshulme will be the next Didsbury. Levenshulme will be the next Chorlton. Levenshulme will be the next Heaton Moor. It never quite makes it, it never will. There is some really quite edifying housing there. But the main drag is depressing. My mental image of Levenshulme is a traffic jam on the A6 through businesses which appeal in no way. Always bypassed by fashion; never bypassed by an actual bypass (which might actually benefit it). The train line through Levenshulme, however, for those commuting in to Manchester from the comfortable suburbs of Stockport, at the right time of year, affords a rather glorious sunrise over the Pennines and sunset over the South Manchester plain. So that's something.

    Did the circus. Did the Zoo - even my 6/7 year old self realised what a depressing outdated shit hole that was - good, good riddance. Dad worked for a while post retirement at the massive car auction, I missed out on an early summer job helping work the totalisator at the dog track.

    Did the cinema once or twice. Got the worst food poisoning I ever had from a Fatty Arbuckle's restaurant across the way, the chain shut not long after when the till electrocuted to death some poor lad.

    I sit in my living room looking at a fireplace bought in Levenshulme, sadly, though better than above, we ended up at the McDonald's opposite the (just over into Stockport) McVities factory that day. A cousin got married, I'm not sure the association at the church in Gorton on the way into Town.

    I've done many circuits of Debdale Park when I was young and lived in Denton (NE), used to sing little ditties about the Kingston stink (a horse rendering site / glue factory called Smith Brothers) - the proper distance to keep behind one of their lorries was about half a mile. Summer 1976 was the last straw there.

    I got done for that classic one time youthful misdemeanour of biting of a girl at school in reception in the lunch queue, I remember school milk being withdrawn. I ran away once but got stuck at the main road. Dad collected for the pools around Denton, I went with him - Vernon's iirc. I didn't go to get a neighbour's nicked goods back from the fence pub in Haughton Green.
    I enjoyed, I must admit, rambling on myself on this topic, but absolutely loved the reminiscences of @Pro_Rata above and @dixiedean . Poetic and touching. Like Northwestern Simon Armitages.
    Cheers
    One of us is Armitage.
    The other one Shanks.
    Guessing that's a self deprecating reference to your RL playing days?

    To wax a bit more, but not milk it too much, there was an Armitage Shanks warehouse in an old mill on the way down the hill past Dukinfield crematorium. If you sat upstairs on the bus, you could see the arrays of loos through a first floor window.

    But that will have to wait for the Stalybridge and Hyde episode one day.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    edited 1:25AM

    Can I get in early with an 'Andy Burnham would have won'?

    Yes, it's true Burnham would probably have won it imo.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 532

    Dan Hodges: “This is existential for Labour. Starmer has sacrificed one of Labour’s safest seats to save his own skin.”

    We will never know how close Burnham would have came to winning. Maybe the Mandelson stuff was too much to overturn after it all spewed out
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,426
    DoctorG said:

    Dan Hodges: “This is existential for Labour. Starmer has sacrificed one of Labour’s safest seats to save his own skin.”

    We will never know how close Burnham would have came to winning. Maybe the Mandelson stuff was too much to overturn after it all spewed out
    Burnham is phenomenally popular in Greater Manchester (for a politician).
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 532

    https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/2027187249192779877

    Now the official Labour machine is sounding downbeat

    Labour sources: "Early signs at the count indicate the Greens have been able to turn out support in a way they wouldn't be able to replicate at a General Election"

    That statement, if accurate, does sound a little arrogant

    "You've maybe won tonight but you don't have the resources to repeat this at a General Election"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,346
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm not sure what they mean by family voting. I quite often discuss with my wife who we are voting for.

    That wouldn't be what they're talking about. They must be talking about family voting in the polling station.
    Am I not allowed to discuss things in the polling station?
    It's against the law to discuss anything in the polling station to do with who you or anyone else might be voting for.
    I took my kids to see me vote in the 2017 General Election. I explained how it worked, they watched me put the cross in the box. It was fun and educational.

    I hope that has not been outlawed.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 620
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News, Jon Craig: Green victory most likely. Greens beating Labour in Gorton, Reform winning in Denton with neck-and-neck for second place between Greens and Labour in that part of the constituency.

    Both Green and Labour insiders saying Greens have probably won.

    assuming the Greens have won,this would be their first proper northern English seat in the Commons. Long term, I think they are in a good position to challenge for a lot of inner city constituencies.

    Labour should be quite worried about the defence of any urban seat which has a high population of students/graduates, and ethnic minorities. In working class seats they have the opposite problem, being tackled by Reform. Of course in the shires, Lab have generally been weaker and the Lib Dems and Tories stronger.

    I don't think it can be underplayed, long term the UK is fast moving away from the two party system dominating politics. I get the impression that this time it will be very difficult for Ms Badenoch and Mr Starmer to entice voters back to their causes

    The next question will be, when will FPTP break? I think we will be pretty close to this within a decade

    Another point - in the event of a Green win, I think the Greens winning a constituency at Holyrood becomes very plausible.

    Long term, UK Labour should be more worried about the Greens than Reform
    In their heartland city seats yes the Greens are the threat but in swing seat towns and outer suburbs it is Reform the threat now, Labour are being squeezed at both ends. If the early reports are true tonight will be an absolute disaster of a result for Starmer and Labour and partly their fault, Burnham may well have held the seat
    This result could be good for both Tories and Reform because it'll make Labour think they need to be more left-wing, but this constituency is very untypical. It's far more left-wing than average.
    Agreed, and if Reform have beaten Labour handily in the Denton part of the constiutency there are a lot of Labour seats more like Denton.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,717
    HYUFD said:

    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News, Jon Craig: Green victory most likely. Greens beating Labour in Gorton, Reform winning in Denton with neck-and-neck for second place between Greens and Labour in that part of the constituency.

    Both Green and Labour insiders saying Greens have probably won.

    assuming the Greens have won,this would be their first proper northern English seat in the Commons. Long term, I think they are in a good position to challenge for a lot of inner city constituencies.

    Labour should be quite worried about the defence of any urban seat which has a high population of students/graduates, and ethnic minorities. In working class seats they have the opposite problem, being tackled by Reform. Of course in the shires, Lab have generally been weaker and the Lib Dems and Tories stronger.

    I don't think it can be underplayed, long term the UK is fast moving away from the two party system dominating politics. I get the impression that this time it will be very difficult for Ms Badenoch and Mr Starmer to entice voters back to their causes

    The next question will be, when will FPTP break? I think we will be pretty close to this within a decade

    Another point - in the event of a Green win, I think the Greens winning a constituency at Holyrood becomes very plausible.

    Long term, UK Labour should be more worried about the Greens than Reform
    In their heartland city seats yes the Greens are the threat but in swing seat towns and outer suburbs it is Reform the threat now, Labour are being squeezed at both ends. If the early reports are true tonight will be an absolute disaster of a result for Starmer and Labour and partly their fault, Burnham may well have held the seat
    I’m not sure the Greens are guaranteed to be a threat in the next GE?

    Their policies are insane but parties can survive that for a while. What they can’t survive is their entire voter base being cleanly split and totally incoherent from top to bottom

    On the one hand they are the party of hugely woke irreligious young people obsessed with gay rights and saving badgers, on the other hand they are the party of very unwoke very religious older Muslims who tend to be quite homophobic and sometimes murderously so, who don’t give a fuck about badgers

    It’s ridiculous. It cannot last. Just shouting “Gaza” will not be enough. At some point they will implode - that could be the general election if they come under scrutiny as a serious party
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