Good to see both Ladbrokes and BFE have already paid out on the result. On Ladbrokes I have my 11/2 on the Green win, placed back on 23 Jan as I posted here. On BFE, following Starmer’s surprise campaign visit, I hedged to make sure I was green on Labour coming either first or second, leaving me only slightly in the green on the Greens, as I also posted here; clearly reading much into Starmer’s visit was a mistake. The mood of the Labour campaign has been more positive over the past week, suggesting they were genuinely deluded as to how bad things were going to be?
Well done to everyone who tipped Greens - sometimes things are as simple as they look! Reform will be very disappointed, but I think the poor Labour showing is probably the headline.
I support Reform (though I’m not a member let alone an activist, and my support is a reluctant acceptance that they are the only hope right now). I want them, therefore, to prosper. But I’m not remotely disappointed. That’s a strange reaction
I never expected them to win this and I said from the start the Greens were the likely winners. Go check
Indeed right from the start I was mystified why Farage would put a really promising talent and intellect like Goodwin in an almost unwinabble seat
But now I see the logic. Goodwin has been blooded. He’s learnt how to campaign from a standing start and in a difficult seat. He’ll have learned valuable lessons
They should now let him stand in a seat he can win easily - and then retain. And then put him in the cabinet
Fair.
The indications I picked up that Labour were very strong in the seat were pretty much things that they had to say, to try to cling on to being the left wing alternative to Reform.
Matt Goodwin was not the best candidate, but though I absolutely don't regret being optimistic, I am not sure any Reform candidate was going to win this.
The idea was to get Goodwin out there “as a politician” and not some effete essayist academic. To introduce him to the rough and tumble of doorstep politics in a really hard seat. No one sensible expected him to win - as you say it’s hard to see any Reformer winning this seat
The risk was that he’d be humiliated, be shown up as weak and pitiful and not robust enough for doorstep politics. Therefore coming a bad 3rd or even 4th
That absolutely did not happen. He beat Labour in one of their homeland seats but was himself beaten by the Muslim bloc vote and a lefty surge to the Greens
But he came second. Silver medal. Very respectable
He’s now got the experience and he deserves a winnable seat for the GE. I’m sure Farage is clever enough to have worked all this out
That’s just a stream of BS. When the by-election was called, Reform expected to win.
Only by twits, such as yourself
Meh, just a couple of days ago on here there was a running joke that noone could call it.
This isn't a disaster for Reform, but it does change the narrative - they're no longer in the ascendancy.
But I did call it. I predicted green reform Labour in that order.
I’m not claiming it was my greatest display of Leondamussery, for a start that was the opinion of the markets as well. Green reform Labour in that order
But I did get it right
And credit to you and others who did so (lots yesterday).
My point is that your hindsight narrative that this was a proving ground for Goodwin is just that, hindsight.
If I’m exceptionally bored tonight in China I will try and find the comment where I first suggested this might be the rationale behind reform standing Goodwin in such a tough seat. It was a few days after Goodwin announced his candidacy
Of course that doesn’t mean I’m right about reform’s thinking. It just means this has been my opinion for a while
I do remember you posting something to that effect. Not doubting your own view. I am doubting a wider narrative that Reform didn't expect to win this seat at any point.
The best result for Britain now is that Lord Peter Mandypants, Andrew Mountbatten-Wanker, and Skyr Toolmakersson, the three most loathed and useless tossers in the UK, are exiled to one of the lesser British Chagos Islands, there to spend the rest of their lives ruling over a mangy palm tree and a couple of confused turtles
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
An awful result for Labour . Not sure even Burnham would have won this seat .
The turnout was good for a by-election which is good to see . Reform underperformed and will be disappointed that they weren’t closer to the Greens .
It’s clear that the Muslim vote deserted Labour and will be a huge concern for them .
A lot has been written about the toxicity of this campaign but not sure the Greens are any different from the other parties . You don’t look a gift horse in the mouth . They played the Gaza card and it reaped dividends .
I really don’t like that Reform are going head on at the idea the election was stolen. This seems like the sort of thing I was hoping they wouldn’t just copy wholesale from Trump.
I think it's important that the concerns raised by the independent election observers are addressed, rather than lost in an argument over Reform claiming it lost them the election.
I think that’s fair however it is going to be lost because Reform have jumped straight to “Muslims lost us this”
Is democracy volunteers a real thing or just some pretend pressure group?
The returning officers response (“we didn’t see anything and it should have been reported earlier”) is not a constructive response to a potentially serious allegation
They appear to be legit and apparently have had significant support from the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust.
Good to see both Ladbrokes and BFE have already paid out on the result. On Ladbrokes I have my 11/2 on the Green win, placed back on 23 Jan as I posted here. On BFE, following Starmer’s surprise campaign visit, I hedged to make sure I was green on Labour coming either first or second, leaving me only slightly in the green on the Greens, as I also posted here; clearly reading much into Starmer’s visit was a mistake. The mood of the Labour campaign has been more positive over the past week, suggesting they were genuinely deluded as to how bad things were going to be?
My Ladbrokes bet of 11/2 placed on 23rd Jan hasn't paid out yet.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
All the tactical voting sites recommended voting Green to ensure Goodwin lost.
I do not think many GE 24 Tory voters switched to Green.
The national opinion polling also shows Lab 24 voters switching heavily to Green, far more than to Reform. That switch is not just a byelection phenomenon.
The May elections in England are going to be a meltdown for Lab and Tories, a good night for Reform, but also a very good night for the Greens.
Both Starmer and Badenoch are going to struggle to survive the year as leader.
I suspect the Polanski bounce puts Labour's poll share down to around 15.
Labour's only hope to find itself in the mid 20s is a Rayner premiership. No New Labour retreads please, and what on earth made Starmer and Reeves believe we all voted for continuity Sunak?
Rayner? An actual criminal. Have we gone mad?
She’s not a criminal but may have to pay a penalty. But keep pushing your narrative as it will boost her credentials as someone the right are afraid of.
My view has nothing to do with the good odds I have on her replacing SKS
Kemi Badenoch would be laughing her arse off at the thought of facing Angie.
On topic. Labour thrashing about with accusations of the Greens being paedos and the drug dealers’ friend went down like a pint of cold sick. As with Mamdani if you’ve got nothing attractive in your own locker, voters can see through that shite. Unfortunately we can expect more of this because they don’t know what else to do.
The Green policy on NATO is genuinely scary though.
What bit is scary?
"The Green Party recognises that NATO has an important role in ensuring the ability of its member states to respond to threats to their security. We would work within NATO to achieve:
A greater focus on global peacebuilding. A commitment to a ‘No First Use’ of nuclear weapons."
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
I think it was a combination of bullshit and desperation from Labour.
It doesn't matter how many doors you knock on if the voters have turned their backs on you.
This May’s local & devolved elecs - which already looked set to be grim for Labour - may become apocalyptic if the Greens surge in the wake of this victory. So many Labour seats in Green friendly territory are up - all seats in inner London & many metros
Labour risk being wiped out by Reform in the ‘red wall’ type metros - Barnsley, Calderdale, Wakefield, Sunderlands etc - & being wiped out by the Greens in what we may now need to start calling the ‘Green wall’ - diverse, student & grad heavy Lab areas where Reform are no threat
Is G&D another examine of the Reform vote being spread right across large parts of England and not well targeted and will be inefficient under FPTP?
That's an interesting point.
I don’t think it’s particularly correct though. The Reform vote is likely to be pretty concentrated in, for instance, Eastern rural/semi rural seats.
I do think they will struggle badly in seats with any significant urban/suburban profile or ethnic mix. Suburban Manchester looks on this result to be very much out for them (it doesn’t mean they can’t come second in seats like that).
This result again shows Skyr’s anti-instinctive non-touch for politics. Why did he go visit a constituency where, a day later, his party was historically beaten into third place, losing half their vote??
Why associate himself personally with that? Maybe he thought his intense charisma and likability could personally swing it back to Labour
Because he felt he had to show face given the presence of Burnham. Blocking Burnham has proven to be a serious error. Burnham very sensibly kept providing high profile support throughout the campaign, this is not his fault or his loss. Saying SKS didn't even show would have added to the narrative that surrounds him. this morning. He's in trouble. Serious trouble.
Starmer blocking Burnham was a terrible mistake on multiple levels.
1. It looked deeply petty, selfish and vindictive 2. It looked weak 3. If Burnham had been allowed to stand and had won Starmer would have appeared magnanimous and sensible, boosting Starmer’s image as an actual leader 4. If Burnham had lost the blame would have largely attached to Burnham, and Starmer could have sighed and said he gave Labour the best chance possible
So with his innate ability to do the stupidest thing in any given situation Starmer has weakened himself, his party and his government. And he is in an even more perilous position. And he lost one of Labour’s safest seats
Blocking Burnham and appointing Mandelson - two of Morgan's finest personnel decisions.
With a political genius like that in Number 10 for most of his time in office, is there any wonder that Starmer is the least popular PM ever?
It may have been stupid on many levels, but on one level (the one that mattered) it wasn't stupid. Burnham was the clear alternative leader. Without him in the Commons, Starmer is safer. That is obvious.
I didn't know there were people like Karl Turner in the Labour Party. Should print his rant on the Today Programme on all thier leaflets.
He had the tone and timing of a decent standup comedian. One of the enjoyable things about post election loss interviews: you get these entertaining rants.
As soon as he declared that the solution is wealth taxes, something that raises little or no money while triggering capital flight every time it’s tried, and will never work unless implemented globally, he lost any credibility he might otherwise have.
On the family voting thing, are the voting booths larger down south? The only family you could squeeze into the ones up here is a burly bloke* and a small and therefore non-voting child.
*Copyright Ruth Davidson from when anyone cared what she falsely claimed.
This result again shows Skyr’s anti-instinctive non-touch for politics. Why did he go visit a constituency where, a day later, his party was historically beaten into third place, losing half their vote??
Why associate himself personally with that? Maybe he thought his intense charisma and likability could personally swing it back to Labour
Because he felt he had to show face given the presence of Burnham. Blocking Burnham has proven to be a serious error. Burnham very sensibly kept providing high profile support throughout the campaign, this is not his fault or his loss. Saying SKS didn't even show would have added to the narrative that surrounds him. this morning. He's in trouble. Serious trouble.
Starmer blocking Burnham was a terrible mistake on multiple levels.
1. It looked deeply petty, selfish and vindictive 2. It looked weak 3. If Burnham had been allowed to stand and had won Starmer would have appeared magnanimous and sensible, boosting Starmer’s image as an actual leader 4. If Burnham had lost the blame would have largely attached to Burnham, and Starmer could have sighed and said he gave Labour the best chance possible
So with his innate ability to do the stupidest thing in any given situation Starmer has weakened himself, his party and his government. And he is in an even more perilous position. And he lost one of Labour’s safest seats
Blocking Burnham and appointing Mandelson - two of Morgan's finest personnel decisions.
With a political genius like that in Number 10 for most of his time in office, is there any wonder that Starmer is the least popular PM ever?
It may have been stupid on many levels, but on one level (the one that mattered) it wasn't stupid. Burnham was the clear alternative leader. Without him in the Commons, Starmer is safer. That is obvious.
Labour would also almost certainly have lost the subsequent mayoral election, which would have been a far more consequential defeat than a parliamentary by-election.
This result again shows Skyr’s anti-instinctive non-touch for politics. Why did he go visit a constituency where, a day later, his party was historically beaten into third place, losing half their vote??
Why associate himself personally with that? Maybe he thought his intense charisma and likability could personally swing it back to Labour
Because he felt he had to show face given the presence of Burnham. Blocking Burnham has proven to be a serious error. Burnham very sensibly kept providing high profile support throughout the campaign, this is not his fault or his loss. Saying SKS didn't even show would have added to the narrative that surrounds him. this morning. He's in trouble. Serious trouble.
Starmer blocking Burnham was a terrible mistake on multiple levels.
1. It looked deeply petty, selfish and vindictive 2. It looked weak 3. If Burnham had been allowed to stand and had won Starmer would have appeared magnanimous and sensible, boosting Starmer’s image as an actual leader 4. If Burnham had lost the blame would have largely attached to Burnham, and Starmer could have sighed and said he gave Labour the best chance possible
So with his innate ability to do the stupidest thing in any given situation Starmer has weakened himself, his party and his government. And he is in an even more perilous position. And he lost one of Labour’s safest seats
Blocking Burnham and appointing Mandelson - two of Morgan's finest personnel decisions.
With a political genius like that in Number 10 for most of his time in office, is there any wonder that Starmer is the least popular PM ever?
If Burnham had stood and won we'd be losing Greater Manchester in May.
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
The punters got it more or less right! Greens margin of victory was perhaps a little more comfortable than they suggested. Labour were a little closer to second too, but otherwise the Billy Bunters were bang on.
Yes, it is obviously good for Green. They fielded a highly personable candidate; well done to them.
Have we passed peak Reform? It wasn't fertile territory, so maybe defer judgement on that one.
It's bad for Labour, but not dire. They didn't implode, and these days that's something for them to be relieved about.
Tories and LDs were effectively non-runners, so no lessons to be learned.
This result again shows Skyr’s anti-instinctive non-touch for politics. Why did he go visit a constituency where, a day later, his party was historically beaten into third place, losing half their vote??
Why associate himself personally with that? Maybe he thought his intense charisma and likability could personally swing it back to Labour
Because he felt he had to show face given the presence of Burnham. Blocking Burnham has proven to be a serious error. Burnham very sensibly kept providing high profile support throughout the campaign, this is not his fault or his loss. Saying SKS didn't even show would have added to the narrative that surrounds him. this morning. He's in trouble. Serious trouble.
Starmer blocking Burnham was a terrible mistake on multiple levels.
1. It looked deeply petty, selfish and vindictive 2. It looked weak 3. If Burnham had been allowed to stand and had won Starmer would have appeared magnanimous and sensible, boosting Starmer’s image as an actual leader 4. If Burnham had lost the blame would have largely attached to Burnham, and Starmer could have sighed and said he gave Labour the best chance possible
So with his innate ability to do the stupidest thing in any given situation Starmer has weakened himself, his party and his government. And he is in an even more perilous position. And he lost one of Labour’s safest seats
Blocking Burnham and appointing Mandelson - two of Morgan's finest personnel decisions.
With a political genius like that in Number 10 for most of his time in office, is there any wonder that Starmer is the least popular PM ever?
It may have been stupid on many levels, but on one level (the one that mattered) it wasn't stupid. Burnham was the clear alternative leader. Without him in the Commons, Starmer is safer. That is obvious.
Labour would also almost certainly have lost the subsequent mayoral election, which would have been a far more consequential defeat than a parliamentary by-election.
There didn't need to be one. The Deputy Mayor is allowed to see out the term.
Voters quite like Andy Burnham and they hate Keir Starmer. That was a needlessly expensive and self-destructive way for the Labour Party to learn that lesson
@Steven_Swinford Karl Turner, Labour MP: ‘Look around the PLP who is there?
‘Andy Burnham’s blocked, he can’t get in. There’s all sorts of other shenanigans. Wes Streeting wanted to be the prime minister since the day he was born probably.
‘The reality is you look around and there’s a problem with everybody. Keir Starmer is the leader of the Labour Party but we’ve got to do Labour policy. You can’t ignore the PLP any longer’
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
I really don’t see very much tactical voting against the Greens?
Reform risks losing their mantle as “best way to kick the establishment”, as have already the LibDems, and UKIP. Meanwhile, I expect Labour councillors in London and the other cities are in for a couple of months of squeaky bum time….
A great result for the Greens, poor for Labour and actually pretty ho hum for Farage.
Labour didn't implode despite a terrible few months, and this can be written off as mid term blues. Reform are not setting the Heather on fire as the insurgent party. The Greens on the other hand have established themselves as a protest party.
Well done to everyone who tipped Greens - sometimes things are as simple as they look! Reform will be very disappointed, but I think the poor Labour showing is probably the headline.
I support Reform (though I’m not a member let alone an activist, and my support is a reluctant acceptance that they are the only hope right now). I want them, therefore, to prosper. But I’m not remotely disappointed. That’s a strange reaction
I never expected them to win this and I said from the start the Greens were the likely winners. Go check
Indeed right from the start I was mystified why Farage would put a really promising talent and intellect like Goodwin in an almost unwinabble seat
But now I see the logic. Goodwin has been blooded. He’s learnt how to campaign from a standing start and in a difficult seat. He’ll have learned valuable lessons
They should now let him stand in a seat he can win easily - and then retain. And then put him in the cabinet
Fair.
The indications I picked up that Labour were very strong in the seat were pretty much things that they had to say, to try to cling on to being the left wing alternative to Reform.
Matt Goodwin was not the best candidate, but though I absolutely don't regret being optimistic, I am not sure any Reform candidate was going to win this.
The idea was to get Goodwin out there “as a politician” and not some effete essayist academic. To introduce him to the rough and tumble of doorstep politics in a really hard seat. No one sensible expected him to win - as you say it’s hard to see any Reformer winning this seat
The risk was that he’d be humiliated, be shown up as weak and pitiful and not robust enough for doorstep politics. Therefore coming a bad 3rd or even 4th
That absolutely did not happen. He beat Labour in one of their homeland seats but was himself beaten by the Muslim bloc vote and a lefty surge to the Greens
But he came second. Silver medal. Very respectable
He’s now got the experience and he deserves a winnable seat for the GE. I’m sure Farage is clever enough to have worked all this out
Goodwin will definitely be a candidate next time round, though frankly it would be difficult to imagine any of their high profile figures not getting a crack at a seat. I think he ran a pretty good campaign. The low Tory vote tells me that he managed to squeeze that vote (such as it was) quite efficiently, and well done to those Tories who voted for a right wing candidate to win. Likewise, Nick Buckley, a pretty good candidate for Advance, got less votes than Sir Oinkalot. So he rolled those hard right votes up pretty well too.
The shift in the Muslim vote was undoubtedly what won it for the Greens. Reform were never going to get that.
I don't see Nick Buckley doing much. I'm not sure that platforming Nick Griffin, and expressing admiration, on his Youtube channel last month was very wise.
I'm not sure where Advance will be in 6 months time. I think there was a prospect of them merging into Restore UK the last time I looked. Judgement is perhaps slightly lacking.
Is G&D another examine of the Reform vote being spread right across large parts of England and not well targeted and will be inefficient under FPTP?
That's an interesting point.
I don’t think it’s particularly correct though. The Reform vote is likely to be pretty concentrated in, for instance, Eastern rural/semi rural seats.
I do think they will struggle badly in seats with any significant urban/suburban profile or ethnic mix. Suburban Manchester looks on this result to be very much out for them (it doesn’t mean they can’t come second in seats like that).
Prof Curtis has already commented on the number of Reform/Green switchers there were in the by-election. Assuming all Reform voters are racist cretins like Leon is an over-simplification.
An awful result for Labour . Not sure even Burnham would have won this seat .
The turnout was good for a by-election which is good to see . Reform underperformed and will be disappointed that they weren’t closer to the Greens .
It’s clear that the Muslim vote deserted Labour and will be a huge concern for them .
A lot has been written about the toxicity of this campaign but not sure the Greens are any different from the other parties . You don’t look a gift horse in the mouth . They played the Gaza card and it reaped dividends .
Morning all. Streeting the most nervous Labour big gun this morning?
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
All the tactical voting sites recommended voting Green to ensure Goodwin lost.
I do not think many GE 24 Tory voters switched to Green.
The national opinion polling also shows Lab 24 voters switching heavily to Green, far more than to Reform. That switch is not just a byelection phenomenon.
The May elections in England are going to be a meltdown for Lab and Tories, a good night for Reform, but also a very good night for the Greens.
Both Starmer and Badenoch are going to struggle to survive the year as leader.
I suspect the Polanski bounce puts Labour's poll share down to around 15.
Labour's only hope to find itself in the mid 20s is a Rayner premiership. No New Labour retreads please, and what on earth made Starmer and Reeves believe we all voted for continuity Sunak?
Rayner? An actual criminal. Have we gone mad?
She’s not a criminal but may have to pay a penalty. But keep pushing your narrative as it will boost her credentials as someone the right are afraid of.
My view has nothing to do with the good odds I have on her replacing SKS
she is useless, no clue about reality and would have us all state employees on a state renumeration etc etc. Never had a real job and could not run a bath never mind a country.
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
The punters got it more or less right! Greens margin of victory was perhaps a little more comfortable than they suggested. Labour were a little closer to second too, but otherwise the Billy Bunters were bang on.
Yes, it is obviously good for Green. They fielded a highly personable candidate; well done to them.
Have we passed peak Reform? It wasn't fertile territory, so maybe defer judgement on that one.
It's bad for Labour, but not dire. They didn't implode, and these days that's something for them to be relieved about.
Tories and LDs were effectively non-runners, so no lessons to be learned.
Not dire for Labour? Are you on ketamine??
This seat has been Labour for 100 years. Their vote HALVED since the general election two years ago
The Guardian reports of Spencer's victory speech have her striking a very left-wing economic tone, rather than talking about cultural or foreign policy issues.
"Instead of working for a nice life, we are working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry. And I don’t think it is extreme or radical to think working hard should get you a nice life … I think that absolutely everybody should get a nice life.
And clearly I’m not the only person who thinks that. ... People in their thousands told me on the doorsteps, and at the ballot box, that what we are sick of is being let down and looked down on, and we are sick of our hard work making other people rich."
Watch it live, and it came across as a very personal speech. Kudos to the Greens for just letting the new MP speak, and not having some speech full of political points in her pocket that someone at Green Towers had written for her.
It’s just stupid grievance politics. There is nothing stopping anyone starting a business and making themselves wealthy by doing so.
Most people,don’t as they won’t take the risk.
She’s supposedly a plumber training to be a plasterer. Nothing stopping her setting up her own business
We have fewer than 113 billionaires in the U.K. fewer than New York City. Many create a lot of jobs and pay a huge amount of tax.
That last one will be a good statistic to refer back to next year. Will it be New York or UK that loses more billionaires to socialist policies in the next 12 months.
Well done to everyone who tipped Greens - sometimes things are as simple as they look! Reform will be very disappointed, but I think the poor Labour showing is probably the headline.
I support Reform (though I’m not a member let alone an activist, and my support is a reluctant acceptance that they are the only hope right now). I want them, therefore, to prosper. But I’m not remotely disappointed. That’s a strange reaction
I never expected them to win this and I said from the start the Greens were the likely winners. Go check
Indeed right from the start I was mystified why Farage would put a really promising talent and intellect like Goodwin in an almost unwinabble seat
But now I see the logic. Goodwin has been blooded. He’s learnt how to campaign from a standing start and in a difficult seat. He’ll have learned valuable lessons
They should now let him stand in a seat he can win easily - and then retain. And then put him in the cabinet
Fair.
The indications I picked up that Labour were very strong in the seat were pretty much things that they had to say, to try to cling on to being the left wing alternative to Reform.
Matt Goodwin was not the best candidate, but though I absolutely don't regret being optimistic, I am not sure any Reform candidate was going to win this.
The idea was to get Goodwin out there “as a politician” and not some effete essayist academic. To introduce him to the rough and tumble of doorstep politics in a really hard seat. No one sensible expected him to win - as you say it’s hard to see any Reformer winning this seat
The risk was that he’d be humiliated, be shown up as weak and pitiful and not robust enough for doorstep politics. Therefore coming a bad 3rd or even 4th
That absolutely did not happen. He beat Labour in one of their homeland seats but was himself beaten by the Muslim bloc vote and a lefty surge to the Greens
But he came second. Silver medal. Very respectable
He’s now got the experience and he deserves a winnable seat for the GE. I’m sure Farage is clever enough to have worked all this out
Goodwin will definitely be a candidate next time round, though frankly it would be difficult to imagine any of their high profile figures not getting a crack at a seat. I think he ran a pretty good campaign. The low Tory vote tells me that he managed to squeeze that vote (such as it was) quite efficiently, and well done to those Tories who voted for a right wing candidate to win. Likewise, Nick Buckley, a pretty good candidate for Advance, got less votes than Sir Oinkalot. So he rolled those hard right votes up pretty well too.
The shift in the Muslim vote was undoubtedly what won it for the Greens. Reform were never going to get that.
The constituency is not split "Muslims" and "Whites" where Reform won the white vote and the Greens the Muslims...
On an aggregate level it is not split at all, on an individual level it absolutely is split down to individuals.
According to Opinium last night that is precisely how it went. Which is a deeply dark and depressing place for our country to be in, that should not be welcomed.
Sectarian voting was not healthy for Northern Ireland and should not be desired for England.
Well done to everyone who tipped Greens - sometimes things are as simple as they look! Reform will be very disappointed, but I think the poor Labour showing is probably the headline.
I support Reform (though I’m not a member let alone an activist, and my support is a reluctant acceptance that they are the only hope right now). I want them, therefore, to prosper. But I’m not remotely disappointed. That’s a strange reaction
I never expected them to win this and I said from the start the Greens were the likely winners. Go check
Indeed right from the start I was mystified why Farage would put a really promising talent and intellect like Goodwin in an almost unwinabble seat
But now I see the logic. Goodwin has been blooded. He’s learnt how to campaign from a standing start and in a difficult seat. He’ll have learned valuable lessons
They should now let him stand in a seat he can win easily - and then retain. And then put him in the cabinet
Fair.
The indications I picked up that Labour were very strong in the seat were pretty much things that they had to say, to try to cling on to being the left wing alternative to Reform.
Matt Goodwin was not the best candidate, but though I absolutely don't regret being optimistic, I am not sure any Reform candidate was going to win this.
The idea was to get Goodwin out there “as a politician” and not some effete essayist academic. To introduce him to the rough and tumble of doorstep politics in a really hard seat. No one sensible expected him to win - as you say it’s hard to see any Reformer winning this seat
The risk was that he’d be humiliated, be shown up as weak and pitiful and not robust enough for doorstep politics. Therefore coming a bad 3rd or even 4th
That absolutely did not happen. He beat Labour in one of their homeland seats but was himself beaten by the Muslim bloc vote and a lefty surge to the Greens
But he came second. Silver medal. Very respectable
He’s now got the experience and he deserves a winnable seat for the GE. I’m sure Farage is clever enough to have worked all this out
Goodwin will definitely be a candidate next time round, though frankly it would be difficult to imagine any of their high profile figures not getting a crack at a seat. I think he ran a pretty good campaign. The low Tory vote tells me that he managed to squeeze that vote (such as it was) quite efficiently, and well done to those Tories who voted for a right wing candidate to win. Likewise, Nick Buckley, a pretty good candidate for Advance, got less votes than Sir Oinkalot. So he rolled those hard right votes up pretty well too.
The shift in the Muslim vote was undoubtedly what won it for the Greens. Reform were never going to get that.
The constituency is not split "Muslims" and "Whites" where Reform won the white vote and the Greens the Muslims...
True. The Greens will have won with the purple hair brigade too.
I really don’t like that Reform are going head on at the idea the election was stolen. This seems like the sort of thing I was hoping they wouldn’t just copy wholesale from Trump.
I think it's important that the concerns raised by the independent election observers are addressed, rather than lost in an argument over Reform claiming it lost them the election.
I think that’s fair however it is going to be lost because Reform have jumped straight to “Muslims lost us this”
Is democracy volunteers a real thing or just some pretend pressure group?
The returning officers response (“we didn’t see anything and it should have been reported earlier”) is not a constructive response to a potentially serious allegation
Concerning though that we have large groups who vote exactly as told to by one person, we see other countries where that is the norm and they are shitholes run by nutters.
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
I really don’t see very much tactical voting against the Greens?
Reform risks losing their mantle as “best way to kick the establishment”, as have already the LibDems, and UKIP. Meanwhile, I expect Labour councillors in London and the other cities are in for a couple of months of squeaky bum time….
There most certainly will be tactical voting if the Greens start looking like they might break through in any meaningful sense. Plenty of voters want to give the main parties a kicking, but plenty won’t want to sign up for hard left policies either.
"The Greens’ extremist victory pushes Britain one step closer to the abyss"
If there is a more shameful and disturbing moment in modern British politics, I’m struggling to think of one today. After a campaign that weaponised troubling sectarianism and open bigotry, the smug and gurning Greens have taken the Gorton and Denton by-election at the expense of our democracy.
I’m pretty sure Farage himself said when Burnham was blocked that they could win this seat and it was the way to get rid of Starmer.
They could have, and it probably would have. I don't think you'll find many participants in a by-election denying their chances.
Goodwin was the wrong candidate for this seat.
Reform has positioned itself very firmly as an anti-immigration party. I don't see that even a figure like Zia Yusuf could have overturned this result - indeed, sadly, he might have leaked some votes to the right. The Muslim bloc vote in G&D (and I am not lumping everyone of Muslim faith into this - but there is a very cohesive traditonal bloc vote) is not going to be tempted by optics. They were quite happy to vote for a white female plumber. They want the policies they want. One could even make the argument that Goodwin's polarising nature did Reform some favours, in mobilising a vote that was very anti-immigration, though this would be difficult to prove.
So compared to the 28,28,27 poll the result was pretty accurate for Reform and Labour, but the poll hugely understated Green. Are we seeing the emergence of the shy Green voter?
Echoes of the way that the polls didn't pick up the Gaza Indies in 2024?
There’s likely large groups of people who all vote the same way and who are not on the radar of pollsters.
In all the excitement over the election of a hard left extremists, representing a party with dangerous and stupid policies, because they weren’t a right wing extremist representing a party with dangerous and stupid policies this came out yesterday it’s interesting.
Jack Dorsey has announced 40% of white collar jobs to'go. Why ? His business, Blocks, is strong and profitable.
They’re being replaced by AI. People like @Leon got what AI meant for white collar jobs.
Clearly Gorton and Denton was a disaster for Labour. The party was squeezed losing young people and the Muslim vote to the victorious Greens in Gorton and also coming behind second placed Reform in white working class Denton.
Not a great result for Kemi either though with the Tories losing their deposit to get their worst ever by election voteshare of just 1.9% and for fabled by election campaigners the LDs it was also not great news as they did even worse than the Tories.
The pressure will now be clearly on Starmer and Kemi to see some improvement for their parties in the local and devolved elections in May if they are to keep their jobs and remain party leaders
I really don’t like that Reform are going head on at the idea the election was stolen. This seems like the sort of thing I was hoping they wouldn’t just copy wholesale from Trump.
I think it's important that the concerns raised by the independent election observers are addressed, rather than lost in an argument over Reform claiming it lost them the election.
I think that’s fair however it is going to be lost because Reform have jumped straight to “Muslims lost us this”
Is democracy volunteers a real thing or just some pretend pressure group?
The returning officers response (“we didn’t see anything and it should have been reported earlier”) is not a constructive response to a potentially serious allegation
Concerning though that we have large groups who vote exactly as told to by one person, we see other countries where that is the norm and they are shitholes run by nutters.
Good to see both Ladbrokes and BFE have already paid out on the result. On Ladbrokes I have my 11/2 on the Green win, placed back on 23 Jan as I posted here. On BFE, following Starmer’s surprise campaign visit, I hedged to make sure I was green on Labour coming either first or second, leaving me only slightly in the green on the Greens, as I also posted here; clearly reading much into Starmer’s visit was a mistake. The mood of the Labour campaign has been more positive over the past week, suggesting they were genuinely deluded as to how bad things were going to be?
My Ladbrokes bet of 11/2 placed on 23rd Jan hasn't paid out yet.
Interesting that yours has?
On double checking, you’re right. BFE has settled, LabB still has it in the open bets column. I notice they also haven’t settled the “three or more MPs to defect to Reform during 2026”, at 6/4 - that’s been achieved, hasn’t it? And that I had a small flutter on Greens leading any YouGov poll during 2026, at 7/1, which now looks more possible
So compared to the 28,28,27 poll the result was pretty accurate for Reform and Labour, but the poll hugely understated Green. Are we seeing the emergence of the shy Green voter?
Echoes of the way that the polls didn't pick up the Gaza Indies in 2024?
The dumb herd have just moved to the latest snake oil salesman, unicorns for all gets them every time.
"The Greens’ extremist victory pushes Britain one step closer to the abyss"
If there is a more shameful and disturbing moment in modern British politics, I’m struggling to think of one today. After a campaign that weaponised troubling sectarianism and open bigotry, the smug and gurning Greens have taken the Gorton and Denton by-election at the expense of our democracy.
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
The punters got it more or less right! Greens margin of victory was perhaps a little more comfortable than they suggested. Labour were a little closer to second too, but otherwise the Billy Bunters were bang on.
Yes, it is obviously good for Green. They fielded a highly personable candidate; well done to them.
Have we passed peak Reform? It wasn't fertile territory, so maybe defer judgement on that one.
It's bad for Labour, but not dire. They didn't implode, and these days that's something for them to be relieved about.
Tories and LDs were effectively non-runners, so no lessons to be learned.
The only consolation for Labour is hoping that this is a bit like the LD surge after the Iraq war - a limited effect (at least in 2005) that lost them lots of by elections in urban seats but didn’t translate into a defeat in the GE. But given the current state of politics I wouldn’t be taking too much cheer if I were Labour. This is a historically bad result in a historically Labour seat and not only were they beaten, they were beaten into third by two parties who are eating their core voter constituencies.
These individual results can be overplayed, but if they demonstrate a trend then it’s going to be a grim May for them.
"The Greens’ extremist victory pushes Britain one step closer to the abyss"
If there is a more shameful and disturbing moment in modern British politics, I’m struggling to think of one today. After a campaign that weaponised troubling sectarianism and open bigotry, the smug and gurning Greens have taken the Gorton and Denton by-election at the expense of our democracy.
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
I really don’t see very much tactical voting against the Greens?
Reform risks losing their mantle as “best way to kick the establishment”, as have already the LibDems, and UKIP. Meanwhile, I expect Labour councillors in London and the other cities are in for a couple of months of squeaky bum time….
Greens are now the protest party in inner cities and university towns but Reform remain the protest party in suburbs and most towns and rural areas, especially in England
This May’s local & devolved elecs - which already looked set to be grim for Labour - may become apocalyptic if the Greens surge in the wake of this victory. So many Labour seats in Green friendly territory are up - all seats in inner London & many metros
Labour risk being wiped out by Reform in the ‘red wall’ type metros - Barnsley, Calderdale, Wakefield, Sunderlands etc - & being wiped out by the Greens in what we may now need to start calling the ‘Green wall’ - diverse, student & grad heavy Lab areas where Reform are no threat
Rob Ford - Man uni
Guardina live blog
"Diverse" meaning places with lots of Muslims in that context.
Whether it is Greens, Workers or Independent, whichever party waves the Palestine flag will trounce Labour in those wards. We are facing a shellacking in Bradford where we have all-out elections in May.
Greens 41% an excellent result, great candidate, excellent team work , well deserved Reform 29% disappointing result, clearly affected by tactical voting on a terrible night for Right Wing extremism awful candidate Labour 26% massive wake up call, not wipe out but nearly, decent candidate, pressure back on SKS - only glimmer 69% voted for centre left Tories 2% risible, faceless campaign, massive rejection of Badenoch, massive rejection of Right Wing Politics exisential leadership change LD 2% equally risble, massively affected by tactical voting, but in the not too distant past they would have been recipient of protest vote.
Only ONE WINNER , Four terrible losers!
I’d disagree with Reform. They performed adequately in target seat 400 or so and the right wing vote coalesced around them and Advance got spanked.
Labour will now pivot to the left I expect leaving the right as a Tory v reform battle.
I posted at some point in the middle of the night, the clear message to Labour / Starmer and the zionist clique that have taken over Labour is quite simple.
Labour Policy, at least initially on Gaza was completely and utterly wrong.
Whilst Russia / Ukraine is a war fought between armies (good guys and bad guys) the actions of the IDF in repsonse top Hamas barbarism is State sponsored Barbarism on a scale weve not seen since Pol Pot.
Whlsit the late acceptance of the right of Palestinians to have a State and the remider that Labour do favour a 2 state solution, has stemmed the centre left flow, in terms of the muslim population it is simply not acceptable. There and in large parts of the centre left, there is raw visceral anger that a UK Labour Prty in Government has not taken punitive diplomatic action against Israel, banned imports, stopped exports, closed the Embassy and made it clear that the current Israeli regime are going to be trested as war criminals and Israel will be a pariah state LIKE Russia until there is regime change.
That one single measure would be welcomed by the massive majority on the left, including notable Jewish non zionists and the fucking extreme irony that muslins will now fall with behind and for a Jewisj non zionist in Polanksi should reverberate in a shocking wake up call to everyone for Starmer down.
Whoever the next labour Leader is, that decision has to be trumpeted loud and clear and with complete and utter conviction. Not for muslims, not to frighten the vast majority of decent British jews , not as a gesture , but to show back bone and decency to the world and to the assholes in Tel Aviv.
Labour policy on Israel has, since Blair, been happy clappy pro IDF, pro Israeli right.
I also see other changes of tone. Labour will move to where its activist base is.
There have certainly been some changes since McSweeney left, a subtle change in tone.
I don’t really think it’s enough, Labour really need to show some process on anything. If they have any skill they’ll trumpet the drop in immigration figures to the heavens.
Till they actually do something about the boats rather than sending taxis out for them, hotels, , money , better NHS treatment and now new social houses etc they will get nowhere. THEY ARE A BUNCH OF NO USERS.
Good to see both Ladbrokes and BFE have already paid out on the result. On Ladbrokes I have my 11/2 on the Green win, placed back on 23 Jan as I posted here. On BFE, following Starmer’s surprise campaign visit, I hedged to make sure I was green on Labour coming either first or second, leaving me only slightly in the green on the Greens, as I also posted here; clearly reading much into Starmer’s visit was a mistake. The mood of the Labour campaign has been more positive over the past week, suggesting they were genuinely deluded as to how bad things were going to be?
My Ladbrokes bet of 11/2 placed on 23rd Jan hasn't paid out yet.
Interesting that yours has?
On double checking, you’re right. BFE has settled, LabB still has it in the open bets column. I notice they also haven’t settled the “three or more MPs to defect to Reform during 2026”, at 6/4 - that’s been achieved, hasn’t it? And that I had a small flutter on Greens leading any YouGov poll during 2026, at 7/1, which now looks more possible
Thanks. I've been chatting with their helpdesk for the last 15 minutes.
I'm not sure their political traders are in yet.
Maybe theyre a 9-5 job but one shouldn't have to chase. As you say, the Reform bet should have settled too and Hills and BFE were almost instant.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Sadly I think a great deal of support for Hamas comes from a hatred of Jews in general and Israel in particular.
We see the opposite happening in Iran, where the regime has killed tens of thousands of young people but no-one appears to care.
Also 6,000 killed because of their ethnicity inside a couple of days in Sudan last week.
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
All the tactical voting sites recommended voting Green to ensure Goodwin lost.
I do not think many GE 24 Tory voters switched to Green.
The national opinion polling also shows Lab 24 voters switching heavily to Green, far more than to Reform. That switch is not just a byelection phenomenon.
The May elections in England are going to be a meltdown for Lab and Tories, a good night for Reform, but also a very good night for the Greens.
Both Starmer and Badenoch are going to struggle to survive the year as leader.
I suspect the Polanski bounce puts Labour's poll share down to around 15.
Labour's only hope to find itself in the mid 20s is a Rayner premiership. No New Labour retreads please, and what on earth made Starmer and Reeves believe we all voted for continuity Sunak?
Rayner? An actual criminal. Have we gone mad?
She’s not a criminal but may have to pay a penalty. But keep pushing your narrative as it will boost her credentials as someone the right are afraid of.
My view has nothing to do with the good odds I have on her replacing SKS
Kemi Badenoch would be laughing her arse off at the thought of facing Angie.
Kemi won't even be able to dream of facing Angie if the Tories get more 4th placed results like last night!
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
Until today, I’d thought that the locals would be a bit of a nothing burger. Now I’m not so sure, a big Green surge in ‘multicultural’ areas as well as the traditional hippy communities could put the PM in real trouble.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Sadly I think a great deal of support for Hamas comes from a hatred of Jews in general and Israel in particular.
We see the opposite happening in Iran, where the regime has killed tens of thousands of young people but no-one appears to care.
Also 6,000 killed because of their ethnicity inside a couple of days in Sudan last week.
Get with the programme, Sudan is so last year for the manufactured concern lads.
The Muslim vote won it for the Greens in Gorton and Denton.
We are organising our community because our voices have never been heard by any mainstream party or media.
And we will use our numbers and our collective will at the ballot box to punish those who oppress us and reward those who support us.
Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Matt Goodwin, Labour, Keir Starmer, GB News and Talk TV, you boys took one hell of a beating!
And there's more of that to come!
The Greens might have the most anti-gay voter base in the country. Toss up with Reform.
The thing I’ve always found most puzzling about support for Hamas is the amount of very progressive people who are involved.
You can support a free Palestine as I do (although I have to be honest it’s not something I consider when I vote) without supporting a terrorist group that puts gays to death.
As I said above, the Greens haven’t received any scrutiny yet. They will.
Sadly I think a great deal of support for Hamas comes from a hatred of Jews in general and Israel in particular.
We see the opposite happening in Iran, where the regime has killed tens of thousands of young people but no-one appears to care.
Exactly so.
It's entirely self-absorbed, as so many in the West now are - "Palestine" is where all left-wing prejudcies meet on colonalism, class, colour, and capitalism, with Jews as the bogeyman, and they find it simply irresistible.
It's about them, not the people actually affected.
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
Until today, I’d thought that the locals would be a bit of a nothing burger. Now I’m not so sure, a big Green surge in ‘multicultural’ areas as well as the traditional hippy communities could put the PM in real trouble.
I agree with Taz that we are likely to see a swing to the left from Labour. This isn't about winning the next election now, it's about the party's very survival.
So compared to the 28,28,27 poll the result was pretty accurate for Reform and Labour, but the poll hugely understated Green. Are we seeing the emergence of the shy Green voter?
No, you saw the Muslim vote go en masse to the Greens as a Gaza protest vote. Though once some of those Muslims read about the pro drug legalisation, pro LGBT, pro Trans in womens' bathrooms, pro euthanasia, secular Green manifesto they may not stick with them at the general election
Good to see both Ladbrokes and BFE have already paid out on the result. On Ladbrokes I have my 11/2 on the Green win, placed back on 23 Jan as I posted here. On BFE, following Starmer’s surprise campaign visit, I hedged to make sure I was green on Labour coming either first or second, leaving me only slightly in the green on the Greens, as I also posted here; clearly reading much into Starmer’s visit was a mistake. The mood of the Labour campaign has been more positive over the past week, suggesting they were genuinely deluded as to how bad things were going to be?
My Ladbrokes bet of 11/2 placed on 23rd Jan hasn't paid out yet.
Interesting that yours has?
On double checking, you’re right. BFE has settled, LabB still has it in the open bets column. I notice they also haven’t settled the “three or more MPs to defect to Reform during 2026”, at 6/4 - that’s been achieved, hasn’t it? And that I had a small flutter on Greens leading any YouGov poll during 2026, at 7/1, which now looks more possible
Thanks. I've been chatting with their helpdesk for the last 15 minutes.
I'm not sure their political traders are in yet.
Maybe theyre a 9-5 job but one shouldn't have to chase. As you say, the Reform bet should have settled too and Hills and BFE were almost instant.
Disappointing.
I'm not so desperate for it as to be phoning their helpdesk! Although if you're on to them, Jenrick, Braverman and Rosindell have all defected during 2026 and there's no "they must stay defected" small print, so they might as well pay out that 6/4 now, as well
In all the excitement over the election of a hard left extremists, representing a party with dangerous and stupid policies, because they weren’t a right wing extremist representing a party with dangerous and stupid policies this came out yesterday it’s interesting.
Jack Dorsey has announced 40% of white collar jobs to'go. Why ? His business, Blocks, is strong and profitable.
They’re being replaced by AI. People like @Leon got what AI meant for white collar jobs.
I though the Greens would win, and they did, but I was just following the herd there. I suggested turnout might be high and it was about the same as at the general election.
In the Con/LD matched bet, I thought the LDs were value with longer odds. The Conservative candidate beat the LD, but only by 13 votes.
I thought the Communist League might come last, and they did. I was confident Rejoin EU would not come last, and they didn’t, coming 4th from last, but they did worse than I expected. I was surprised (but happy) how badly Advance UK did (0.4% and behind the loonies), which doesn’t seem like a good sign for those ramping Restore Britain on the betting markets.
Good to see both Ladbrokes and BFE have already paid out on the result. On Ladbrokes I have my 11/2 on the Green win, placed back on 23 Jan as I posted here. On BFE, following Starmer’s surprise campaign visit, I hedged to make sure I was green on Labour coming either first or second, leaving me only slightly in the green on the Greens, as I also posted here; clearly reading much into Starmer’s visit was a mistake. The mood of the Labour campaign has been more positive over the past week, suggesting they were genuinely deluded as to how bad things were going to be?
My Ladbrokes bet of 11/2 placed on 23rd Jan hasn't paid out yet.
Interesting that yours has?
On double checking, you’re right. BFE has settled, LabB still has it in the open bets column. I notice they also haven’t settled the “three or more MPs to defect to Reform during 2026”, at 6/4 - that’s been achieved, hasn’t it? And that I had a small flutter on Greens leading any YouGov poll during 2026, at 7/1, which now looks more possible
Thanks. I've been chatting with their helpdesk for the last 15 minutes.
I'm not sure their political traders are in yet.
Maybe theyre a 9-5 job but one shouldn't have to chase. As you say, the Reform bet should have settled too and Hills and BFE were almost instant.
Disappointing.
You’d think that the morning after a by-election, it might be advisable to have a politics trader or two get up early and dial in…
I’m pretty sure their cricket traders didn’t work UK office hours during the Ashes.
An awful result for Labour . Not sure even Burnham would have won this seat .
The turnout was good for a by-election which is good to see . Reform underperformed and will be disappointed that they weren’t closer to the Greens .
It’s clear that the Muslim vote deserted Labour and will be a huge concern for them .
A lot has been written about the toxicity of this campaign but not sure the Greens are any different from the other parties . You don’t look a gift horse in the mouth . They played the Gaza card and it reaped dividends .
Reform were actually par. They got 29% and the latest Nowcast projects Reform to get 27% in Gorton and Denton so Reform if anything slightly overperformed, just the Greens overperformed even more and Labour did even worse than projected in a seat they were still forecast to hold despite being forecast to lose nationally
It's a repeat of Caerphilly. A not-Labour party can win big against Reform in a Labour seat. Tactical voting works, but you can only have one target, which is Reform in this case, I think.
How this plays out across the very large Labour estate, I'm not sure, but it doesn't look good for Labour.
On topic. Labour thrashing about with accusations of the Greens being paedos and the drug dealers’ friend went down like a pint of cold sick. As with Mamdani if you’ve got nothing attractive in your own locker, voters can see through that shite. Unfortunately we can expect more of this because they don’t know what else to do.
The Green policy on NATO is genuinely scary though.
In what sense?
The 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia led to a large change in Green Party policy on NATO. The party now no longer opposes NATO membership.
Polanski does still advocate for leaving NATO, but party policy is not determined solely by the party leader in the Greens, unlike in less democratic parties in Britain.
I think a Green government would just withdraw British forces from the NATO command structure without withdrawing from the treaty. There would be a similar approach to Trident. Don't scrap it, but just don't spend a penny on it until it stops working. Remember, we are the most intelligent British political party, on average, and therefore the most devious.
I do not think a Green government likely, but it is good to hear fresh ideas debated and supported including the decriminalisation of drugs and prostitution, and looking beyond our shores to Rejoin the EU.
It isn't Polanski that is a threat to NATO, it is Trump. I would be happy for NATO to be wound up and replaced by an EU plus EEA security alliance including Ukraine.
Good to see both Ladbrokes and BFE have already paid out on the result. On Ladbrokes I have my 11/2 on the Green win, placed back on 23 Jan as I posted here. On BFE, following Starmer’s surprise campaign visit, I hedged to make sure I was green on Labour coming either first or second, leaving me only slightly in the green on the Greens, as I also posted here; clearly reading much into Starmer’s visit was a mistake. The mood of the Labour campaign has been more positive over the past week, suggesting they were genuinely deluded as to how bad things were going to be?
My Ladbrokes bet of 11/2 placed on 23rd Jan hasn't paid out yet.
Interesting that yours has?
On double checking, you’re right. BFE has settled, LabB still has it in the open bets column. I notice they also haven’t settled the “three or more MPs to defect to Reform during 2026”, at 6/4 - that’s been achieved, hasn’t it? And that I had a small flutter on Greens leading any YouGov poll during 2026, at 7/1, which now looks more possible
Thanks. I've been chatting with their helpdesk for the last 15 minutes.
I'm not sure their political traders are in yet.
Maybe theyre a 9-5 job but one shouldn't have to chase. As you say, the Reform bet should have settled too and Hills and BFE were almost instant.
Disappointing.
I'm not so desperate for it as to be phoning their helpdesk! Although if you're on to them, Jenrick, Braverman and Rosindell have all defected during 2026 and there's no "they must stay defected" small print, so they might as well pay out that 6/4 now, as well
An awful result for Labour . Not sure even Burnham would have won this seat .
The turnout was good for a by-election which is good to see . Reform underperformed and will be disappointed that they weren’t closer to the Greens .
It’s clear that the Muslim vote deserted Labour and will be a huge concern for them .
A lot has been written about the toxicity of this campaign but not sure the Greens are any different from the other parties . You don’t look a gift horse in the mouth . They played the Gaza card and it reaped dividends .
Reform were actually par. They got 29% and the latest Nowcast projects Reform to get 27% in Gorton and Denton so Reform if anything slightly overperformed, just the Greens overperformed even more and Labour did even worse than projected in a seat they were still forecast to hold despite being forecast to lose nationally
100% SURE Burnham would have lost there yesterday against targetted voting by sections of the Community to stop Reform and give Labour a very bloody nose.
That is their perogative and I have outlined the reasons for it and why I understand it.
VERY bad night in a Constituency for Labour a seat they can win back in next GE
What would have been an utter calamity is that if burnham had stood and lost we would now be losing MAYORAL position too!
great result for the Greens, disappointing for Reform (but with a silver lining - see below) but disastrous for Labour and the Tories.
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
Until today, I’d thought that the locals would be a bit of a nothing burger. Now I’m not so sure, a big Green surge in ‘multicultural’ areas as well as the traditional hippy communities could put the PM in real trouble.
I agree with Taz that we are likely to see a swing to the left from Labour. This isn't about winning the next election now, it's about the party's very survival.
Utter hogwash
A bloody nose but survival talk is utter gibberish.
Starmer will be replaced after May, Mc Sweeney is already gone, what you will see is a far more pragmatic responsive alert and focussed labour . They will destroy pOlanski on his extreme positions and definitely plaigirise some of his others.
The Tory Party on the other hand - WORST WORST By Election performance in their long distinguised history. Their attack on Labour this morning is the stuff of the East European Communists as the Freedom Fighetrs were at the door. Utter denial!
I am not convinced that backing Tories for most seats is the correct conclusion from that poll.
Is that the Tories worst byelection petformance since dinosaurs walked over Gorton and Denton?
Doing some further sums, and with a pretty similar turnout to the GE I think this fair.
I think it fair to assume that the 6% who switched away from the Tories nearly all went to Reform, so 3/4 GE 24 voters, over and above their worst GE result in 2 centuries. Badenoch is staring into the abyss.
Which also means that 8.7% of the electorate switched from Lab to Reform, around 1/7 of the Lab GE 24 vote, while Lab lost more than twice that to the Greens.
All the tactical voting sites recommended voting Green to ensure Goodwin lost.
I do not think many GE 24 Tory voters switched to Green.
The national opinion polling also shows Lab 24 voters switching heavily to Green, far more than to Reform. That switch is not just a byelection phenomenon.
The May elections in England are going to be a meltdown for Lab and Tories, a good night for Reform, but also a very good night for the Greens.
Both Starmer and Badenoch are going to struggle to survive the year as leader.
What is it these people switching to Green want?
For Labour to actually change something, apart from its own mind?
It's a repeat of Caerphilly. A not-Labour party can win big against Reform in a Labour seat. Tactical voting works, but you can only have one target, which is Reform in this case, I think.
How this plays out across the very large Labour estate, I'm not sure, but it doesn't look good for Labour.
The problem for the not-Labour party is in establishing themself as the anti-Reform alternative to Labour during a general election.
It's easier to do in a by-election, when volunteers from across the country can visit a single constituency to help with the campaign. But when you're trying to run campaigns in many seats simultaneously during a general election, it becomes a lot harder.
Realistically, the Greens won't be targeting more than a hundred seats, and I'd actually be surprised if they targeted more than a few dozen, and even that they might decide is too ambitious. Similarly, how many Labour-held seats are the Lib Dems going to campaign hard in during a general election? Very few.
So, in England, during a GE, there are about 300-350 Labour-held seats where the anti-Reform tactical vote will probably have to be for Labour - the monumentally unpopular incumbent government. Is that really going to happen in a big way? This is one reason why I don't think Reform have a huge amount to worry about with the result.
Comments
Let them be gone. We have suffered enough
Although Reform will be disappointed it wasn’t closer, I think GreenMania probably benefits Farage. Suddenly he becomes the “only we can stop Polanski” vote - and that possibly helps him consolidate more of the right wing vote. Hence why this is very bad news for the Tories.
Labour coming third in a seat like this is absolutely dire for them. They should have run Burnham. Tribal spats aren’t going to solve things for them now - Starmer isn’t strong enough for that. What will be really worrying for them though is that there was at least some indication in recent days that they thought they’d done rather well - Starmer visiting and a lot of the mood music was quite upbeat. If they actually genuinely did think they could cling on that suggests a breakdown in their modelling which could cause them serious issues in May and beyond.
The turnout was good for a by-election which is good to see . Reform underperformed and will be disappointed that they weren’t closer to the Greens .
It’s clear that the Muslim vote deserted Labour and will be a huge concern for them .
A lot has been written about the toxicity of this campaign but not sure the Greens are any different from the other parties . You don’t look a gift horse in the mouth . They played the Gaza card and it reaped dividends .
Hills already have as have Betfair.
Interesting that yours has?
"The Green Party recognises that NATO has an important role in ensuring the ability of its member states to respond to threats to their security. We would work within NATO to achieve:
A greater focus on global peacebuilding.
A commitment to a ‘No First Use’ of nuclear weapons."
It doesn't matter how many doors you knock on if the voters have turned their backs on you.
Labour risk being wiped out by Reform in the ‘red wall’ type metros - Barnsley, Calderdale, Wakefield, Sunderlands etc - & being wiped out by the Greens in what we may now need to start calling the ‘Green wall’ - diverse, student & grad heavy Lab areas where Reform are no threat
Rob Ford - Man uni
Guardina live blog
I do think they will struggle badly in seats with any significant urban/suburban profile or ethnic mix. Suburban Manchester looks on this result to be very much out for them (it doesn’t mean they can’t come second in seats like that).
As soon as he declared that the solution is wealth taxes, something that raises little or no money while triggering capital flight every time it’s tried, and will never work unless implemented globally, he lost any credibility he might otherwise have.
*Copyright Ruth Davidson from when anyone cared what she falsely claimed.
Gorton and Denton would not have been safe. It is way way down on target list iirc.
Yes, it is obviously good for Green. They fielded a highly personable candidate; well done to them.
Have we passed peak Reform? It wasn't fertile territory, so maybe defer judgement on that one.
It's bad for Labour, but not dire. They didn't implode, and these days that's something for them to be relieved about.
Tories and LDs were effectively non-runners, so no lessons to be learned.
Voters quite like Andy Burnham and they hate Keir Starmer. That was a needlessly expensive and self-destructive way for the Labour Party to learn that lesson
@Steven_Swinford
Karl Turner, Labour MP: ‘Look around the PLP who is there?
‘Andy Burnham’s blocked, he can’t get in. There’s all sorts of other shenanigans. Wes Streeting wanted to be the prime minister since the day he was born probably.
‘The reality is you look around and there’s a problem with everybody. Keir Starmer is the leader of the Labour Party but we’ve got to do Labour policy. You can’t ignore the PLP any longer’
Reform risks losing their mantle as “best way to kick the establishment”, as have already the LibDems, and UKIP. Meanwhile, I expect Labour councillors in London and the other cities are in for a couple of months of squeaky bum time….
Labour didn't implode despite a terrible few months, and this can be written off as mid term blues. Reform are not setting the Heather on fire as the insurgent party. The Greens on the other hand have established themselves as a protest party.
I'm not sure where Advance will be in 6 months time. I think there was a prospect of them merging into Restore UK the last time I looked. Judgement is perhaps slightly lacking.
Or maybe there is some 4-d chess going on within Reform?
Clearly all that shenanigans with barcharts earlier this week was to try and get them to overhaul Reform, so they came second not third.
This seat has been Labour for 100 years. Their vote HALVED since the general election two years ago
They weren’t just beaten they came THIRD
According to Opinium last night that is precisely how it went. Which is a deeply dark and depressing place for our country to be in, that should not be welcomed.
Sectarian voting was not healthy for Northern Ireland and should not be desired for England.
Musk's new favourite fascist.
"The Greens’ extremist victory pushes Britain one step closer to the abyss"
If there is a more shameful and disturbing moment in modern British politics, I’m struggling to think of one today. After a campaign that weaponised troubling sectarianism and open bigotry, the smug and gurning Greens have taken the Gorton and Denton by-election at the expense of our democracy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02/27/this-is-a-truly-dark-day-for-britain/
It has a positive GROSS profit (which is an important start!) but he is attacking the opex line
Not a great result for Kemi either though with the Tories losing their deposit to get their worst ever by election voteshare of just 1.9% and for fabled by election campaigners the LDs it was also not great news as they did even worse than the Tories.
The pressure will now be clearly on Starmer and Kemi to see some improvement for their parties in the local and devolved elections in May if they are to keep their jobs and remain party leaders
These individual results can be overplayed, but if they demonstrate a trend then it’s going to be a grim May for them.
Only the non-billlionaire side is extreme, always for the Torygraph. Farage is just local colour, and healthy popular energy.
Greens now have 5 MPs.
Reform has 8 - but four of those are Tory defections who were not elected on a REF ticket..
Bet Jenrick and Braverman are feeling a little sick this morning.
Whether it is Greens, Workers or Independent, whichever party waves the Palestine flag will trounce Labour in those wards. We are facing a shellacking in Bradford where we have all-out elections in May.
I'm not sure their political traders are in yet.
Maybe theyre a 9-5 job but one shouldn't have to chase. As you say, the Reform bet should have settled too and Hills and BFE were almost instant.
Disappointing.
And I’m still not convinced recruiting more and more Tories is a good move.
It's entirely self-absorbed, as so many in the West now are - "Palestine" is where all left-wing prejudcies meet on colonalism, class, colour, and capitalism, with Jews as the bogeyman, and they find it simply irresistible.
It's about them, not the people actually affected.
NEW THREAD
In the Con/LD matched bet, I thought the LDs were value with longer odds. The Conservative candidate beat the LD, but only by 13 votes.
I thought the Communist League might come last, and they did. I was confident Rejoin EU would not come last, and they didn’t, coming 4th from last, but they did worse than I expected. I was surprised (but happy) how badly Advance UK did (0.4% and behind the loonies), which doesn’t seem like a good sign for those ramping Restore Britain on the betting markets.
I’m pretty sure their cricket traders didn’t work UK office hours during the Ashes.
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
How this plays out across the very large Labour estate, I'm not sure, but it doesn't look good for Labour.
It isn't Polanski that is a threat to NATO, it is Trump. I would be happy for NATO to be wound up and replaced by an EU plus EEA security alliance including Ukraine.
That is their perogative and I have outlined the reasons for it and why I understand it.
VERY bad night in a Constituency for Labour a seat they can win back in next GE
What would have been an utter calamity is that if burnham had stood and lost we would now be losing MAYORAL position too!
A bloody nose but survival talk is utter gibberish.
Starmer will be replaced after May, Mc Sweeney is already gone, what you will see is a far more pragmatic responsive alert and focussed labour . They will destroy pOlanski on his extreme positions and definitely plaigirise some of his others.
The Tory Party on the other hand - WORST WORST By Election performance in their long distinguised history. Their attack on Labour this morning is the stuff of the East European Communists as the Freedom Fighetrs were at the door. Utter denial!
It's easier to do in a by-election, when volunteers from across the country can visit a single constituency to help with the campaign. But when you're trying to run campaigns in many seats simultaneously during a general election, it becomes a lot harder.
Realistically, the Greens won't be targeting more than a hundred seats, and I'd actually be surprised if they targeted more than a few dozen, and even that they might decide is too ambitious. Similarly, how many Labour-held seats are the Lib Dems going to campaign hard in during a general election? Very few.
So, in England, during a GE, there are about 300-350 Labour-held seats where the anti-Reform tactical vote will probably have to be for Labour - the monumentally unpopular incumbent government. Is that really going to happen in a big way? This is one reason why I don't think Reform have a huge amount to worry about with the result.