How very convenient. What exactly did they warn him about? I don't believe either him or Rayner on this. At the time Lammy said this "Mandelson had “a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector”.
Why are you so determined not to believe Rayner on this? It's hard to think of any leading Labour figure who would be less inclined than Rayner to give Starmer a ringing recommendation of why he should appoint Mandelson to anything.
Anyway where there is correspondence on this it is all going to be released before too long. So it's best for MPs to stick to the truth this time, because otherwise this will end badly for them. It's the ones who are not saying anything that could be interesting.
And I note that Mandelson's mate Streeting is one of those who has so far said nothing.......
Peter Mandelson was interviewed and warned in 2008 by British security services that he was being targeted by Russian assets. But he appears to have ignored them. It is inconceivable Keir Starmer was not aware."
There will be no smoking gun. It will be claims some lacky didn't do the research properly, so this information never touched Starmers desk.
Do you think it is possible, with an shared belief between government and the security services that Mandelson could do a "job of work" for them, that a mutual understanding to sex down the Mandelson dossier was reached between them?
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
Peter Mandelson was interviewed and warned in 2008 by British security services that he was being targeted by Russian assets. But he appears to have ignored them. It is inconceivable Keir Starmer was not aware."
There will be no smoking gun. It will be claims some lacky didn't do the research properly, so this information never touched Starmers desk.
Do you think it is possible, with an shared belief between government and the security services that Mandelson could do a "job of work" for them, that a mutual understanding to sex down the Mandelson dossier was reached between them?
Doesn't seem crazy...Sir Humphrey talks to their opposite number in the security services, and says you know old chap you might just want to not go looking too hard there old buddy. Maybe they thought he was just a mate, they didn't actually know that he was passing sensitive info. Or could it even be that Mandy has done a bit of work for the security services in the past, he knows a lot of important people.
"I have been amazed by the seeming lack of interest or simply inability of US journalists to really get to grips with the story of Jeffrey Epstein, how he made such a fortune and why so many powerful people were seemingly so enchanted by him. What has been written has been predictably lurid, yet there is clearly so much more to this story."
They make a good point. The story is only interesting because it involves the rich and famous. This is not about child exploitation.There were more girls and of a younger age trafficed in Rotherham.
In the last two years the Israelis with the help of the Americans killed over 25,000 children.
Virginia Giuffre was abused from the age of 7 by her father and her father's best friend. We haven't been introduced to either of them but HRH Perince Andrew who possibly had sex with her aged 17 he believed consensually is now a pariah.
The only thing that gives this story legs is our prurient interest in the celebrity of the clients. And yet no one seems to be particularly interested in what these clients did or even who they were. Just the two pimps and not even who financed them and why.
That's a load of cobblers Roger.
There are other reasons an awful lot of people are extremely interested in the story which you ignore completely.
It involves people with power who have used that power to cover up, and to prevent legal investigation on a massive scale. It also involves international money laundering and influence peddling for hostile powers like Russia.
Do you really think "release the files" has become a political issue purely because of prurience ?
Just finishing my whisky before bed. Two random comments on tonight's musings:
1. It must be terribly frustrating to his opponents that Starmer, and all his cabinet, are still in place and that the press is having to rely on gossip as to what's going to happen.
2. I want to stick up for HYUFD: even if one disagrees with some of his opinions, he is by far the most loyal out-and-out Tory in the entire PB village; to question his loyalty to the true Tory cause is sacrilegious.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
Just finishing my whisky before bed. Two random comments on tonight's musings:
1. It must be terribly frustrating to his opponents that Starmer, and all his cabinet, are still in place and that the press is having to rely on gossip as to what's going to happen.
2. I want to stick up for HYUFD: even if one disagrees with some of his opinions, he is by far the most loyal out-and-out Tory in the entire PB village; to question his loyalty to the true Tory cause is sacrilegious.
If Epstein had happened ten or twenty years earlier or later then there would still had been a scandal, all that would have changed is that there would have been people in a different generation implicated. Who they would have been is a hypothetical which can never be answered but they would have included some people otherwise thought to be 'decent guys'.
Incidentally I also referred to JD Vance in my initial comment, yet you haven't been concerned about that.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
The evidence is that Reform have gone from 7.7% to about 20% in polling and the Tories from 12.7% to an average of 11% so the bulk of Reforms increase in support is not coming from Scottish Tories and thus the Tory vote is very unlikely to collapse yo them where it held up in 2024
There's also coming 5th in Perth and Kinross on less than their national average to consider re the rural Perth seats
If Epstein had happened ten or twenty years earlier or later then there would still had been a scandal, all that would have changed is that there would have been people in a different generation implicated. Who they would have been is a hypothetical which can never be answered but they would have included some people otherwise thought to be 'decent guys'.
Incidentally I also referred to JD Vance in my initial comment, yet you haven't been concerned about that.
Altogether now - my side good, their side bad.
So you're now saying Vance gives every indication of being a decent guy ?
You make some interesting arguments.
"which of us knows if we'd participate in the rape of children" if we had the opportunity, is up there, too.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
The evidence is that Reform have gone from 7.7% to about 20% in polling and the Tories from 12.7% to an average of 11% so the bulk of Reforms increase in support is not coming from Scottish Tories and thus the Tory vote is very unlikely to collapse yo them where it held up in 2024
In 2021 the Scottish Tories got 21.9% on the Holyrood constituency vote.
So clearly nearly half of them voted Labour in 2024 and now many of them back Reform as well as the nearly a third of 2021 and 2024 Scottish Tories who have gone Reform,
In 2024 in Perth and Kinrosshire for example the SNP got 37%, the Tories 29% and Labour 18%. The combined Tory and Labour vote was 10% more than the SNP vote and Reform are gaining from 2024 Labour as well as Tory voters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_Kinross-shire
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
The evidence is that Reform have gone from 7.7% to about 20% in polling and the Tories from 12.7% to an average of 11% so the bulk of Reforms increase in support is not coming from Scottish Tories and thus the Tory vote is very unlikely to collapse yo them where it held up in 2024
In 2021 the Scottish Tories got 21.9% on the Holyrood constituency vote.
So clearly nearly half of them voted Labour in 2024 and now many of them back Reform as well as the nearly a third of 2021 and 2024 Scottish Tories who have gone Reform
Well good luck to Reform building on their 5th place and 5.9% in Perth and Kinross in 2024. The 6.9% and fourth in Angus and the Perthshire Glen's might be more fruitful Even half the Tory 2021 vote isn't enough
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
The evidence is that Reform have gone from 7.7% to about 20% in polling and the Tories from 12.7% to an average of 11% so the bulk of Reforms increase in support is not coming from Scottish Tories and thus the Tory vote is very unlikely to collapse yo them where it held up in 2024
In 2021 the Scottish Tories got 21.9% on the Holyrood constituency vote.
So clearly nearly half of them voted Labour in 2024 and now many of them back Reform as well as the nearly a third of 2021 and 2024 Scottish Tories who have gone Reform,
In 2024 in Perth and Kinrosshire for example the SNP got 37%, the Tories 29% and Labour 18%. The combined Tory and Labour vote was 10% more than the SNP vote and Reform are gaining from 2024 Labour as well as Tory voters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_Kinross-shire
Reform aren't on 'the Tury and Labour vote combined' in the polls
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
The evidence is that Reform have gone from 7.7% to about 20% in polling and the Tories from 12.7% to an average of 11% so the bulk of Reforms increase in support is not coming from Scottish Tories and thus the Tory vote is very unlikely to collapse yo them where it held up in 2024
In 2021 the Scottish Tories got 21.9% on the Holyrood constituency vote.
So clearly nearly half of them voted Labour in 2024 and now many of them back Reform as well as the nearly a third of 2021 and 2024 Scottish Tories who have gone Reform
Well good luck to Reform building on their 5th place and 5.9% in Perth and Kinross in 2024. The 6.9% and fourth in Angus and the Perthshire Glen's might be more fruitful Even half the Tory 2021 vote isn't enough
Angus North in 2021 was SNP 48%, Conservative 39%, Labour 8%,
The SNP vote is down 13% on 2021, so if Reform took most of the 2021 Conservative vote (which Yougov says they have) and added a bit of the Labour vote they could take it. Especially if the Scottish Greens stand a candidate for the constituency too and eat into the SNP voteshare
You often see (and enjoy) Left on Left battles, but Right on Right feels more common than it used to be, and a subset of that I enjoy is when it comes to differing views about the online right and how much it reflects reality, with some traditional or even non-traditional right wingers rather more skeptical about claims of youthful popularity which are in vogue with the more online heavy rightists.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
Perthshire rural seats, even Swinney's, could also go Reform on the Yougov constituency Holyrood swing to Reform since 2021
Reform would need the tory vote to collapse to them I think, the SNP should probably be over 35% in both and even on a straight swing from 2021 the Tories will get towards 25% in each
The evidence is that Reform have gone from 7.7% to about 20% in polling and the Tories from 12.7% to an average of 11% so the bulk of Reforms increase in support is not coming from Scottish Tories and thus the Tory vote is very unlikely to collapse yo them where it held up in 2024
In 2021 the Scottish Tories got 21.9% on the Holyrood constituency vote.
So clearly nearly half of them voted Labour in 2024 and now many of them back Reform as well as the nearly a third of 2021 and 2024 Scottish Tories who have gone Reform
Well good luck to Reform building on their 5th place and 5.9% in Perth and Kinross in 2024. The 6.9% and fourth in Angus and the Perthshire Glen's might be more fruitful Even half the Tory 2021 vote isn't enough
Angus North in 2021 was SNP 48%, Conservative 39%, Labour 8%,
The SNP vote is down 13% on 2021, so if Reform took most of the 2021 Conservative vote (which Yougov says they have) and added a bit of the Labour vote they could take it. Especially if the Scottish Greens stand a candidate for the constituency too and eat into the SNP voteshare
If they get more votes than the SNP they win, yes. I dispute the number of votes you think they are getting and from where The Rural Toriesdidnt jump to Reform en masse in Stranraer and the Rhins for example
If Epstein had happened ten or twenty years earlier or later then there would still had been a scandal, all that would have changed is that there would have been people in a different generation implicated. Who they would have been is a hypothetical which can never be answered but they would have included some people otherwise thought to be 'decent guys'.
Incidentally I also referred to JD Vance in my initial comment, yet you haven't been concerned about that.
Altogether now - my side good, their side bad.
So you're now saying Vance gives every indication of being a decent guy ?
You make some interesting arguments.
"which of us knows if we'd participate in the rape of children" if we had the opportunity, is up there, too.
Thanks for admitting that your concern about imagined slights only applies to people you deem to be on your side.
You really have overdosed on the pompom waving that led people to insist that there was nothing wrong with Joe Biden and that Hunter Biden was a victim of a political witch hunt.
By the way Vance is a self-made man who has risen to the top from an disadvantaged beginning.
He seems to be a good family man and there doesn't appear to be any apparent scandals about him - if there had been the Dems wouldn't have needed to make up stories about him. He doesn't even seem to have betrayed anyone politically yet. Perhaps the easiest thing to criticise him for is his change of attitude to Trump - whether he truly believes that or has been using Trump to rise to his present position is open for debate.
Now Vance isn't in line with your political views (or mine for that matter) but as politicians go I wouldn't class him as less decent than average.
If you want to put politicians into the non-decent category then perhaps you could start with those Dems that lied about Biden's health. Including, it seems in a mild way, Jon Ossoff.
You often see (and enjoy) Left on Left battles, but Right on Right feels more common than it used to be, and a subset of that I enjoy is when it comes to differing views about the online right and how much it reflects reality, with some traditional or even non-traditional right wingers rather more skeptical about claims of youthful popularity which are in vogue with the more online heavy rightists.
Reform are the most popular party amongst men over 50. Women over 50 it's the Tories. Greens are the most popular party amongst women under 50. Men under 50 it's Labour.
Does anyone know why so many of the best PB posters have left the site over the last few years? I'm thinking of people like Antifrank/Alistair Meeks, SouthamObserver, Richard Navabi, Fitalass, etc. I just think it's sad and regrettable that they're not here anymore.
Does anyone know why so many of the best PB posters have left the site over the last few years? I'm thinking of people like Antifrank/Alistair Meeks, SouthamObserver, Richard Navabi, Fitalass, etc. I just think it's sad and regrettable that they're not here anymore.
Does anyone know why so many of the best PB posters have left the site over the last few years? I'm thinking of people like Antifrank/Alistair Meeks, SouthamObserver, Richard Navabi, Fitalass, etc. I just think it's sad and regrettable that they're not here anymore.
Speaking of which, @fitalass, I asked you on Dec 26 if you could provide a discussant contribution. That would require you to read Draft 12 of the article and provide a comment (about 300 words would be nice). If you can't then that's OK, it's not a problem, but I need to know if you can't.
Does anyone know why so many of the best PB posters have left the site over the last few years? I'm thinking of people like Antifrank/Alistair Meeks, SouthamObserver, Richard Navabi, Fitalass, etc. I just think it's sad and regrettable that they're not here anymore.
Reasons are as follows
People just grow out of it.
There aren't as many elections as there were in the 2010's. Don't forget in the 2010s there were two POTUS elections (12,16), two UK referenda (Scot, EU), four UK General Elections (10,15,17,19), and two European Parliament elections (14,19), all of which generated interest. Now it's just whining about stuff we can't fix or isn't at the election level.
The 2015's Event. In the middle of the 2010s something happened. The advent of large screens, smartphones, social media and engagement algorithms led to everybody getting excited and aggressive. Social media isn't fun anymore and people silo'd themselves.
Some other stuff I've forgotten.
I'm only here because it's difficult to sleep and I work from a laptop for clients who don't care about office hours. If life was different I'd be somewhere else...but it isn't so I'm not.
Comments
There are other reasons an awful lot of people are extremely interested in the story which you ignore completely.
It involves people with power who have used that power to cover up, and to prevent legal investigation on a massive scale.
It also involves international money laundering and influence peddling for hostile powers like Russia.
Do you really think "release the files" has become a political issue purely because of prurience ?
1. It must be terribly frustrating to his opponents that Starmer, and all his cabinet, are still in place and that the press is having to rely on gossip as to what's going to happen.
2. I want to stick up for HYUFD: even if one disagrees with some of his opinions, he is by far the most loyal out-and-out Tory in the entire PB village; to question his loyalty to the true Tory cause is sacrilegious.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53977-snp-lead-reform-uk-in-second-in-yougov-january-2026-holyrood-voting-intention
Wherever the votes Reform are picking up in Scotland are coming from, very few are rural Scottish Tories
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Results_HolyroodVI_Jan26_formatted_w.pdf
If he was he would support Kemi
Ever heard this phrase ?
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/there_but_for_the_grace_of_God_go_I
If Epstein had happened ten or twenty years earlier or later then there would still had been a scandal, all that would have changed is that there would have been people in a different generation implicated. Who they would have been is a hypothetical which can never be answered but they would have included some people otherwise thought to be 'decent guys'.
Incidentally I also referred to JD Vance in my initial comment, yet you haven't been concerned about that.
Altogether now - my side good, their side bad.
There's also coming 5th in Perth and Kinross on less than their national average to consider re the rural Perth seats
You make some interesting arguments.
"which of us knows if we'd participate in the rape of children" if we had the opportunity, is up there, too.
So clearly nearly half of them voted Labour in 2024 and now many of them back Reform as well as the nearly a third of 2021 and 2024 Scottish Tories who have gone Reform,
In 2024 in Perth and Kinrosshire for example the SNP got 37%, the Tories 29% and Labour 18%. The combined Tory and Labour vote was 10% more than the SNP vote and Reform are gaining from 2024 Labour as well as Tory voters
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_Kinross-shire
The 6.9% and fourth in Angus and the Perthshire Glen's might be more fruitful
Even half the Tory 2021 vote isn't enough
The SNP vote is down 13% on 2021, so if Reform took most of the 2021 Conservative vote (which Yougov says they have) and added a bit of the Labour vote they could take it. Especially if the Scottish Greens stand a candidate for the constituency too and eat into the SNP voteshare
The Rural Toriesdidnt jump to Reform en masse in Stranraer and the Rhins for example
You really have overdosed on the pompom waving that led people to insist that there was nothing wrong with Joe Biden and that Hunter Biden was a victim of a political witch hunt.
By the way Vance is a self-made man who has risen to the top from an disadvantaged beginning.
He seems to be a good family man and there doesn't appear to be any apparent scandals about him - if there had been the Dems wouldn't have needed to make up stories about him. He doesn't even seem to have betrayed anyone politically yet. Perhaps the easiest thing to criticise him for is his change of attitude to Trump - whether he truly believes that or has been using Trump to rise to his present position is open for debate.
Now Vance isn't in line with your political views (or mine for that matter) but as politicians go I wouldn't class him as less decent than average.
If you want to put politicians into the non-decent category then perhaps you could start with those Dems that lied about Biden's health. Including, it seems in a mild way, Jon Ossoff.
https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollinsGA/posts/jon-ossoff-last-year-said-he-found-biden-to-be-sharp-focused-impressive-formidab/1102157428760063/
Greens are the most popular party amongst women under 50. Men under 50 it's Labour.
Speaking of which, @fitalass, I asked you on Dec 26 if you could provide a discussant contribution. That would require you to read Draft 12 of the article and provide a comment (about 300 words would be nice). If you can't then that's OK, it's not a problem, but I need to know if you can't.
- People just grow out of it.
- There aren't as many elections as there were in the 2010's. Don't forget in the 2010s there were two POTUS elections (12,16), two UK referenda (Scot, EU), four UK General Elections (10,15,17,19), and two European Parliament elections (14,19), all of which generated interest. Now it's just whining about stuff we can't fix or isn't at the election level.
- The 2015's Event. In the middle of the 2010s something happened. The advent of large screens, smartphones, social media and engagement algorithms led to everybody getting excited and aggressive. Social media isn't fun anymore and people silo'd themselves.
- Some other stuff I've forgotten.
I'm only here because it's difficult to sleep and I work from a laptop for clients who don't care about office hours. If life was different I'd be somewhere else...but it isn't so I'm not.https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/disintegration-00815e8a5fe5