Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
When the Tories have a net gain of councils in London in May I'm going to ban you from celebrating as punishment
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
I wonder whether part of the problem is that both Labour and the Tories share the same brand. They're both establishment parties and if the very idea of establishment parties are discredited then voters will turn away from both. To give a simplified analogy, say BYD's electric cars suddenly develop exploding batteries. That may then drive a lot of business to Tesla's electric cars. If Tesla's batteries start to explode too, people aren't going to go back to BYD again. They'll start buying petrol cars instead.
Yet to be fair to Labour even after the week they have had they are on 23%, 7% ahead of the Tories. The combined Tory and Labour vote is also ahead of the Reform vote
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
As a gay man....who hardly sweats and loves Pizza Express....
Despite telling the BBC presenter he had only seen “middle-aged housekeepers”, he (Mandelson) spent an evening with Epstein and two female students at the paedophile’s New York home in 2012, and went underwear shopping before the occasion.
Hold the front page. Peter Mandelson swings both ways!
Two points. Mandelson's continued friendship with a vile criminal rapist and pervert puts him in the same line as a whole bunch of other mover and shaker perverts. That is not to defend him but contextualise his personal potential criminality that I will suggest in my second point.
As serving Business Secretary he provided sensitive insider information regarding Cabinet policy to a foreign financier. This is the hanging offence.
Not speaking about why he saw at Epstein's homes is also a hanging offence and a serious one. It's the failure to speak up about misbehaviour which allows such misbehaviour to grow, spread and worsen.
And BTW, why on earth was there not a Proceeds of Crime action against Ghislaine Maxwell in respect of these "secret trusts". Her father stole tens of millions from pension funds. How on earth was she allowed to keep it?
It's based on a JP Morgan assessment (they were her bankers.)
If I read it correctly the trusts were set up and funded years before Robert Maxwell plundered the Mirror pension funds so were outside the scope of the recovery process.
Her bankers? Her bankers? Christ. Two tier justice yet again. And does anyone seriously believe that the pilfering of the Mirror Pension funds was Maxwell's first larceny? He used vexatious libel litigations to shut up everyone criticising him for decades before the wheels came off. I wonder what her brothers got.
No, it was not his first larcency.
Look on the bright side, he failed in his attempt to buy Manchester United, £50,000 more and he would have owned it.
I know one of her brothers is/was the UK's biggest ever bankrupt.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Good analysis. Farage needs overhauling and I would be very surprised if Badenoch can do that. Hunt (and I've met him and he's a bit odd) is still your best hope.
He's several orders of magnitude better than Kemi and everyone following politics knows it. If it wasn't that he's a Leaver I would have considered him a reasonable prospect. He can be very witty
So team Cleverly is now HYUFD, Brixian and Roger
Cleverly is fucked, if he wants to be leader
LOL
A very very broad church of suppirt
Very different to Kemis base. A right wall parquet tile with a crack on both sides
Lib Dem’s have insitututed a ‘review’ - kick it into the long grass ?
‘ It’s been THIRTEEN years since @Channel4News first reported on sexual harassment allegations against the Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard. Then, the Lib Dems were in government. This week their leader was in Parliament haranguing @Keir_Starmer about why Peter Mandelson was still in the House of Lords. That incensed @aligoldsworthy - one of the women who originally came forward. She emailed @EdwardJDavey and passed the email to me on @TimesRadio . We interviewed her again and before I came off air Sir Ed said he wanted Lord Rennard out of the second chamber. Change is happening. Lord Rennard continues to deny the allegations.’
He suspended Rennard straight away. That's not kicking it into the long grass.
2013 to today is not ‘straight away’ and why did it take these victims making a fuss over his parties double standards when Ed D criticised why Mandelson was still in the Lords. It was only done as his hand was forced.
As Cathy Newman says
It’s been THIRTEEN years since @Channel4News first reported on sexual harassment allegations against the Lib Dem peer Lord Rennard.
He was suspended at the time. There was an investigation at the time that was inconclusive. He was eventually re-admitted to the party. Someone recently wrote to Davey and pointed out the case to him, arguing this wasn't good enough, and Davey agreed, immediately suspending Rennard again.
If he still has scope to suspend him despite a previous inconclusive investigation and readmission, then then obvious question would be was there not a way to not readmit him in the first place? They can argue about the timelines of what was reasonably reaction perhaps, but at a glance (all most people will see), it probably doesn't look great.
You can read all the details at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Rennard,_Baron_Rennard#Allegations_of_sexual_harassment An investigation was held and concluded there was insufficient evidence to do anything. The police had already concluded there was insufficient evidence to continue an investigation. This was during Nick Clegg's leadership. Farron and Swinson kept Rennard sidelined in the party, but didn't stop him being in the party. Davey was challenged on the matter and has taken this new action, apparently on the basis of new legal advice. I see it as a case of the best time to do something about Rennard was 12 years ago, but the second best time to do something about Rennard is now. But, sure, it's not good PR for the party.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Good analysis. Farage needs overhauling and I would be very surprised if Badenoch can do that. Hunt (and I've met him and he's a bit odd) is still your best hope.
He's several orders of magnitude better than Kemi and everyone following politics knows it. If it wasn't that he's a Leaver I would have considered him a reasonable prospect. He can be very witty
So team Cleverly is now HYUFD, Brixian and Roger
Cleverly is fucked, if he wants to be leader
LOL
A very very broad church of suppirt
Very different to Kemis base. A right wall parquet tile with a crack on both sides
The Kemi Derangement Syndrome is strong with this one...
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
When the Tories have a net gain of councils in London in May I'm going to ban you from celebrating as punishment
Well the Tories may be able to celebrate gaining Westminster and holding Kensington and Chelsea and at a push winning Barnet I grant you.
Reference polling Worth remembering that the result of the 2024 election saw a lower Labour lead than in any of the hundreds of polls from Sept 29th 2022 till polling day. And it's not like Rishi had a storming campaign.
Opinion polls are a measure of public mood, not a weather vane for a potential result. The majority of people haven't seriously thought about who they'll vote for next time
They are neither a weather vane nor a compass, nor can you know the relationship between the polling and a non existent election. But they are not useless. Three and half years out from the 2024 election the Tory + Labour polling % was around 79-80% of the vote. At the 2024 election it was 59%. It is now polling all over the place but between about 34 and 40%.
This gives a true picture, not of a future result or of what will occur in the future, but that the traditional model and the two great parties are in a state of dereliction and desolation we have never seen before. The House of Commons is numerically dominated by parties the voters despise and reject, and this does not happen without reason and cause. Those bits for now are certain.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
I wonder whether part of the problem is that both Labour and the Tories share the same brand. They're both establishment parties and if the very idea of establishment parties are discredited then voters will turn away from both. To give a simplified analogy, say BYD's electric cars suddenly develop exploding batteries. That may then drive a lot of business to Tesla's electric cars. If Tesla's batteries start to explode too, people aren't going to go back to BYD again. They'll start buying petrol cars instead.
Yet to be fair to Labour even after the week they have had they are on 23%, 7% ahead of the Tories. The combined Tory and Labour vote is also ahead of the Reform vote
Although looked at it another way, if you exclude the Lib Dems then the establishment parties got 57% of the vote in the 2024 election. One year in and they have 39%.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
When the Tories have a net gain of councils in London in May I'm going to ban you from celebrating as punishment
Well the Tories may be able to celebrate gaining Westminster and holding Kensington and Chelsea and at a push winning Barnet I grant you.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Good analysis. Farage needs overhauling and I would be very surprised if Badenoch can do that. Hunt (and I've met him and he's a bit odd) is still your best hope.
He's several orders of magnitude better than Kemi and everyone following politics knows it. If it wasn't that he's a Leaver I would have considered him a reasonable prospect. He can be very witty
So team Cleverly is now HYUFD, Brixian and Roger
Cleverly is fucked, if he wants to be leader
LOL
A very very broad church of suppirt
Very different to Kemis base. A right wall parquet tile with a crack on both sides
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
When the Tories have a net gain of councils in London in May I'm going to ban you from celebrating as punishment
Well the Tories may be able to celebrate gaining Westminster and holding Kensington and Chelsea and at a push winning Barnet I grant you.
Voting Tory is now a very elite pasttime!
I thought elitists exclusively vote Labour.
They vote uniparty but at the very top of the elite now are the Kemi Tories in wealthy central west London and the Davey LDs in the posh home counties
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
When the Tories have a net gain of councils in London in May I'm going to ban you from celebrating as punishment
Well the Tories may be able to celebrate gaining Westminster and holding Kensington and Chelsea and at a push winning Barnet I grant you.
Voting Tory is now a very elite pasttime!
Like the LDs perhaps something people only do in securely wealthy areas and rural regions isolated from 'normal' voting habits.
As a gay man....who hardly sweats and loves Pizza Express....
Despite telling the BBC presenter he had only seen “middle-aged housekeepers”, he (Mandelson) spent an evening with Epstein and two female students at the paedophile’s New York home in 2012, and went underwear shopping before the occasion.
Hold the front page. Peter Mandelson swings both ways!
Two points. Mandelson's continued friendship with a vile criminal rapist and pervert puts him in the same line as a whole bunch of other mover and shaker perverts. That is not to defend him but contextualise his personal potential criminality that I will suggest in my second point.
As serving Business Secretary he provided sensitive insider information regarding Cabinet policy to a foreign financier. This is the hanging offence.
Not speaking about why he saw at Epstein's homes is also a hanging offence and a serious one. It's the failure to speak up about misbehaviour which allows such misbehaviour to grow, spread and worsen.
And BTW, why on earth was there not a Proceeds of Crime action against Ghislaine Maxwell in respect of these "secret trusts". Her father stole tens of millions from pension funds. How on earth was she allowed to keep it?
How on earth were a couple of dozen probable child rapists in at least three US states given non prosecution agreements ?
DOJ's 86-page prosecution memo listing possible co-conspirators in the Epstein case - and the victim's allegations against those possible co-conspirators -- disappeared from their website after the Miami Herald questioned them about the list. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2020134655207325768
The DoJ says it is not currently investigating anyone over Epstein links. They're not even questioning people. Not those past co-conspirators. Not the people in the files now.
How very convenient. What exactly did they warn him about? I don't believe either him or Rayner on this. At the time Lammy said this "Mandelson had “a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector”.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
When the Tories have a net gain of councils in London in May I'm going to ban you from celebrating as punishment
Well the Tories may be able to celebrate gaining Westminster and holding Kensington and Chelsea and at a push winning Barnet I grant you.
Voting Tory is now a very elite pasttime!
They should hold Harrow and Hillingdon, lose Bexley and probably Bromley but they have chance at picking up at least one of Wandsworth, Enfield, Croydon
But, at least in the real world, you are not entitled to that when you are guilty of gross misconduct. Contracts are mutual. If, as Starmer claimed on Thursday, he lied and lied to get the appointment he was not entitled to any notice and would not be able to enforce any notice period in it.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
When the Tories have a net gain of councils in London in May I'm going to ban you from celebrating as punishment
Well the Tories may be able to celebrate gaining Westminster and holding Kensington and Chelsea and at a push winning Barnet I grant you.
Voting Tory is now a very elite pasttime!
I thought elitists exclusively vote Labour.
They vote uniparty but at the very top of the elite now are the Kemi Tories in wealthy central west London and the Davey LDs in the posh home counties
Please don't use 'uniparty', it's a blatant americanism which the onlight right/left are trying to push to argue an obvious fiction that our major parties are indistinguishable, for fairly blatant reasons of ramping up support for others.
Even when people made the 'they're all the same' argument they didn't use to use uniparty, they'd at least say something like 'Establishment' parties instead.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
As a gay man....who hardly sweats and loves Pizza Express....
Despite telling the BBC presenter he had only seen “middle-aged housekeepers”, he (Mandelson) spent an evening with Epstein and two female students at the paedophile’s New York home in 2012, and went underwear shopping before the occasion.
Hold the front page. Peter Mandelson swings both ways!
Two points. Mandelson's continued friendship with a vile criminal rapist and pervert puts him in the same line as a whole bunch of other mover and shaker perverts. That is not to defend him but contextualise his personal potential criminality that I will suggest in my second point.
As serving Business Secretary he provided sensitive insider information regarding Cabinet policy to a foreign financier. This is the hanging offence.
Not speaking about why he saw at Epstein's homes is also a hanging offence and a serious one. It's the failure to speak up about misbehaviour which allows such misbehaviour to grow, spread and worsen.
And BTW, why on earth was there not a Proceeds of Crime action against Ghislaine Maxwell in respect of these "secret trusts". Her father stole tens of millions from pension funds. How on earth was she allowed to keep it?
How on earth were a couple of dozen probable child rapists in at least three US states given non prosecution agreements ?
DOJ's 86-page prosecution memo listing possible co-conspirators in the Epstein case - and the victim's allegations against those possible co-conspirators -- disappeared from their website after the Miami Herald questioned them about the list. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2020134655207325768
The DoJ says it is not currently investigating anyone over Epstein links. They're not even questioning people. Not those past co-conspirators. Not the people in the files now.
Not the person who emailed Epstein saying he had their permission to kill someone?
Seriously, the US is the place now for well heeled chaps to bump people off etc.
How very convenient. What exactly did they warn him about? I don't believe either him or Rayner on this. At the time Lammy said this "Mandelson had “a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector”.
How very convenient. What exactly did they warn him about? I don't believe either him or Rayner on this. At the time Lammy said this "Mandelson had “a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector”.
Even in a government as dysfunctional as this one, the idea that the Ambassador to Washington, the most important post in the Diplomatic Service, was appointed against the opposition of the Foreign Secretary stretches credibility to the absolute limit. In fact beyond it.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
Well, we don't know yet. Perhaps the optimal position is Badenoch as Prime Minister of a Labour Government.
She wouldn't be the first popular leader of an unpopular party.
My point is that Kemi has undeniably improved and her clever and well delivered questions resulting in Starmer's admission on Mandelson
That is widely accepted and apparently at her last news conference they had to quickly add more chairs for the number who came
Whilst Starmer and labour face an existential crisis and the last thing the conservative party need is another leadership crisis
The party is behind her and @HYUFD is, for reasons that I cannot fathom and at a time she needs loyallty, doing everything to undermine her
Of course there are those who want to do this, that is politics, but not when it is supposedly someone on your own side
He is traumatised by Johnson's leaving and views everything through that lense when we all know Johnson was his own worse enemy, then the party elected Truss [I voted for Sunak] and the rest is history
I reckon Cleverly has promised him a run at a safe seat
Cleverly was loyal to Boris to the end, unlike say Kemi and Jenrick and Rishi and Braverman.
However, he also served Rishi loyally as he is serving Kemi, he is a decent chap
In the GE Campaign often as the Tories main spin room guy he came accross brilliantly, especially when up against Streeting or Ashworth.
He'd stand his ground, discuss, argue, banter. At the end he'd always hold his hand out shake the other guys hand.
Hard but fair with respect for his opponent
Yes and he has some gravitas and presence and was a Senior Cabinet Minister, I increasingly think Cleverly is Michael Howard to Kemi's IDS (though even IDS never saw the Tories fall as low as 16%!)
17% is the standard Opinium Tory score. Not sure why you've got your knickers in a twist about 16.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
How very convenient. What exactly did they warn him about? I don't believe either him or Rayner on this. At the time Lammy said this "Mandelson had “a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector”.
It's a curious line to walk in such situations, as obviously everyone wants to give the impression (or outright state) that they had their doubts about the decision, but they have to know that there will be public statements from them saying otherwise.
It is not impossible such claims are true, people might have given warnings but then once the decision was made they were good little soldiers and advanced the approved lines, but that doesn't really help since it is an admission they lied to push a party narrative. Which often happens I'm sure, but you don't want to be caught out doing so.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
As a gay man....who hardly sweats and loves Pizza Express....
Despite telling the BBC presenter he had only seen “middle-aged housekeepers”, he (Mandelson) spent an evening with Epstein and two female students at the paedophile’s New York home in 2012, and went underwear shopping before the occasion.
Hold the front page. Peter Mandelson swings both ways!
Two points. Mandelson's continued friendship with a vile criminal rapist and pervert puts him in the same line as a whole bunch of other mover and shaker perverts. That is not to defend him but contextualise his personal potential criminality that I will suggest in my second point.
As serving Business Secretary he provided sensitive insider information regarding Cabinet policy to a foreign financier. This is the hanging offence.
Not speaking about why he saw at Epstein's homes is also a hanging offence and a serious one. It's the failure to speak up about misbehaviour which allows such misbehaviour to grow, spread and worsen.
And BTW, why on earth was there not a Proceeds of Crime action against Ghislaine Maxwell in respect of these "secret trusts". Her father stole tens of millions from pension funds. How on earth was she allowed to keep it?
It's based on a JP Morgan assessment (they were her bankers.)
If I read it correctly the trusts were set up and funded years before Robert Maxwell plundered the Mirror pension funds so were outside the scope of the recovery process.
Her bankers? Her bankers? Christ. Two tier justice yet again. And does anyone seriously believe that the pilfering of the Mirror Pension funds was Maxwell's first larceny? He used vexatious libel litigations to shut up everyone criticising him for decades before the wheels came off. I wonder what her brothers got.
Kevin has been declared bankrupt twice and banned from being a company director. Not so sure about Ian.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
So is he proposing to cut welfare spending in Finland to increase defence spending ?
They have increased defence spending. Whether they get to the proposed level may be another question. Finland plans to raise its defence spending to five percent of gross domestic product by 2032, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Saturday at the National Coalition Party’s spring council meeting.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
But do you think they'll go to the Tories?
If Reforms bubble bursts then irrespective of which party or parties get a few a chunk will go (back) to not voting which will boost everyone else in raw numbers. I'd guess that if 2024 non voters saying Reform in polls today went back to WNV, the Lab/Tory avg would be about 22 or 23 each
It gets even worse. Mail on Sunday reports Mandelson offered Epstein advice on PR advisers as it was reporting on Virginia Giuffre’s allegations against Andrew.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
"I have been amazed by the seeming lack of interest or simply inability of US journalists to really get to grips with the story of Jeffrey Epstein, how he made such a fortune and why so many powerful people were seemingly so enchanted by him. What has been written has been predictably lurid, yet there is clearly so much more to this story."
So is he proposing to cut welfare spending in Finland to increase defence spending ?
They have increased defence spending. Whether they get to the proposed level may be another question. Finland plans to raise its defence spending to five percent of gross domestic product by 2032, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Saturday at the National Coalition Party’s spring council meeting.
Fortunately with our booming economy, rigorously efficient defence procurement, and lack of systemic social costs or demographic challenges, that minute increase will really go a long way to boosting our capacity.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
FFS Give it a rest. Endless repetition of this kind of garbage just makes for a pile rubbish that rivals Birmingham. Boring. You're starting to make Roger sound sensible!
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
I had not realised it was the case in so few areas.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
Labour politicians letting it be known that they warned Starmer about Mandelson aren't exactly showing any great insight. There are literally tens of millions of people in the UK who might have said as much.
I assume Starmer was already well aware of what Mandelson was like, and knew that he was taking a risk, but he thought it might be worth it to butter-up Trump. The important questions are how thorough was the vetting, and did Starmer heed or ignore it. If the vetting was flawed but thorough and gave Starmer the all-clear he's got a chance of getting through it, but it the vetting was light-handed or if Starmer ignored the vetting then he's probably done for.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
But do you think they'll go to the Tories?
I think they probably will do. @Stuartinromford has been at pains to say that’s where the Reform vote came from. One of the big unknowns is the DNV’s from 2024; Labour got fewer votes than 2019, as did the Lib Dem’s and the Tories. In other words, turnout was way down. It’s quite possible the 2019 Tories who didn’t vote are a large part of Reform’s VI. I’d say they were in play for Kemi
I have voted for Farage many times, but I reckon he’s winging it. I liked him better as an agitator putting pressure on the big two than potential PM. I can’t imagine he really wants he job
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
I had not realised it was the case in so few areas.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
Northumberland is a number of different polities. It also is single member wards with elections only every four years. So we won't find out.
Looks like they have got a "volunteer" who has agreed to jump under the bus.
There is also growing speculation that Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary responsible for the vetting process for Mandelson’s appointment, will soon leave No 10 as part of a wider shake-up.
Meanwhile, an unnamed minister is said to be on the verge of resigning, which could trigger a leadership challenge by a stalking horse, or even a genuine challenger.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
Reform’s refusal to hold by elections when MPs defect is very poor, especially given Farage’s criticism of Tory>Lab defectors who refused to do so
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
FFS Give it a rest. Endless repetition of this kind of garbage just makes for a pile rubbish that rivals Birmingham. Boring. You're starting to make Roger sound sensible!
As a gay man....who hardly sweats and loves Pizza Express....
Despite telling the BBC presenter he had only seen “middle-aged housekeepers”, he (Mandelson) spent an evening with Epstein and two female students at the paedophile’s New York home in 2012, and went underwear shopping before the occasion.
Hold the front page. Peter Mandelson swings both ways!
Two points. Mandelson's continued friendship with a vile criminal rapist and pervert puts him in the same line as a whole bunch of other mover and shaker perverts. That is not to defend him but contextualise his personal potential criminality that I will suggest in my second point.
As serving Business Secretary he provided sensitive insider information regarding Cabinet policy to a foreign financier. This is the hanging offence.
Not speaking about why he saw at Epstein's homes is also a hanging offence and a serious one. It's the failure to speak up about misbehaviour which allows such misbehaviour to grow, spread and worsen.
And BTW, why on earth was there not a Proceeds of Crime action against Ghislaine Maxwell in respect of these "secret trusts". Her father stole tens of millions from pension funds. How on earth was she allowed to keep it?
How on earth were a couple of dozen probable child rapists in at least three US states given non prosecution agreements ?
DOJ's 86-page prosecution memo listing possible co-conspirators in the Epstein case - and the victim's allegations against those possible co-conspirators -- disappeared from their website after the Miami Herald questioned them about the list. https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2020134655207325768
The DoJ says it is not currently investigating anyone over Epstein links. They're not even questioning people. Not those past co-conspirators. Not the people in the files now.
That - and are systematically redacting the names of those who probably should be investigated.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
But do you think they'll go to the Tories?
I can’t imagine [Farage] really wants he job
And despite the often prudent anxiety over the blatantly ambitious, and ideal of the reluctant and humble public servant, you probably do want someone who does actually want the job, as that should hopefully come with the drive and vision to take on the job (whether that vision is worth anything is another question).
That said, I think Farage probably does want it now, even if he did not really before. Like how I am very sure Corbyn never really wanted it, his decades on the periphery show that, but once he was in for a few years he fought as hard as he could to stamp authority on the party and lead them on.
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
I had not realised it was the case in so few areas.
They outpolled Reform also in Oxfordshire (no idea) and Hertfordshire (as I said Broxbourne will be interesting - guaranteed Tory hold as only a third up but can they hold those?) They also won the Peterborough etc mayor - there's a by election Lab held on Thursday in P'Boro/NW Cambs that Ref and Con are targeting
How very convenient. What exactly did they warn him about? I don't believe either him or Rayner on this. At the time Lammy said this "Mandelson had “a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector”.
You can believe the ones who warned against him publicly at the time. A quick search doesn't suggest either did.
(Lord Glasman seems to have done so, and referred to photos of him with Epstein.)
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
Northumberland is a number of different polities. It also is single member wards with elections only every four years. So we won't find out.
I'm not a fan of by thirds elections (and by halves? outrageous), but they do have the advantage of getting to test this sort of thing.
On that point, whilst only 1/3 of people vote in local elections I am still surprised how often people will comment things like "I bet they're only do this because of upcoming elections" on local political stories, where they've obviously heard about some coming up and assumed it must include their area, even if they are all-out and happened only the year before.
Starmer gets a boost for dealing with Mandy’s betrayal.
No boost for Farage/Kemi.
Not according to the detail
Kemi improves her rating ahead of Farage and well ahead of Starmer
Also Starmer only narrowly beats Kemi as best PM
Plus over 50% want Starmer to resign
If that is a boost for Starmer well it's a view
Kemi still trailing Starmer as preferred PM is not great for Kemi given recent scandals in the government
Its a lot better than Cleverly or any other conservative would achieve just now
I expect her improvement to increase as this crisis continues
I suspect Cleverly would at least manage to be preferred to the second most unpopular PM of my lifetime (after Truss) as Farage is tonight and could also manage not to lose another 8% on the 24% Rishi got in 2024, itself the worst Tory general election result since 1832
Starmer is less popular than Truss was. And frankly the fact that you're going out of your way to attack an ex-Tory PM in favour of a current Labour PM highlights why the Tory Party is so lost. It is riven by sad factional squabbles and petty disloyalty, and frankly unfit for purpose from top to bottom. No wonder Kemi is so much more popular than the party she leads.
Except she isn't, when Kemi took over the Tories had got 24% even in 2024, she has now lost even a third of that vote and taken it to just 16% tonight
FFS Give it a rest. Endless repetition of this kind of garbage just makes for a pile rubbish that rivals Birmingham. Boring. You're starting to make Roger sound sensible!
HY is perfectly entitled to his opinion.
Indeed.. but again and again and again! No doubt I spout rubbish as well, but sparingly....
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
How very convenient. What exactly did they warn him about? I don't believe either him or Rayner on this. At the time Lammy said this "Mandelson had “a wealth of experience in trade, economic and foreign policy from his years in government and the private sector”.
Why are you so determined not to believe Rayner on this? It's hard to think of any leading Labour figure who would be less inclined than Rayner to give Starmer a ringing recommendation of why he should appoint Mandelson to anything.
Anyway where there is correspondence on this it is all going to be released before too long. So it's best for MPs to stick to the truth this time, because otherwise this will end badly for them. It's the ones who are not saying anything that could be interesting.
And I note that Mandelson's mate Streeting is one of those who has so far said nothing.......
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
I'm 50/50 on it. I can see the logic of it being a bubble, but I also think there's a certain momentum to maintaining a lead, and that people may start to become accustomed to thinking it normal for Reform to poll so high, and the longer that bubble stretches out the less likely it might be that as many go back to their natural voting pattern and restore the primary of Tory/Labour (even if still weaker than before).
The ever sensible folk of Norfolk showed the way in Wymondham Central two weeks ago. A weakened Tory party still holding on with Reform trailing in third. Not the Tories best ward in the area but representative. If they were 15 points behind they wouldn't be holding on in Wymondham. It's very very typical East Anglian commuter market town.
Whilst a lot of the attention, understandably, is on the areas like Kent or Durham where Reform swept to power from nowhere last May, I'm actually a little more curious about the areas where the Tories held their position above Reform, and whether that is still the case and how Reform hold up in such areas - are they pushing hard, or did still coming behind the Tories in those areas mean that even with the national polling they will struggle in those places?
Krugers refusal to stand in a by in Wiltshire is a guide The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
Northumberland is a number of different polities. It also is single member wards with elections only every four years. So we won't find out.
I'm not a fan of by thirds elections (and by halves? outrageous), but they do have the advantage of getting to test this sort of thing.
On that point, whilst only 1/3 of people vote in local elections I am still surprised how often people will comment things like "I bet they're only do this because of upcoming elections" on local political stories, where they've obviously heard about some coming up and assumed it must include their area, even if they are all-out and happened only the year before.
Some of the wards in Northumberland are huge. Putting three of them together would be logistically tricky. Unitary doesn't really work here. It's very politically and socially varied. On FB a disturbing number of people can't wait to vote the Labour government out and insert PM Farage in May.
Looks like they have got a "volunteer" who has agreed to jump under the bus.
There is also growing speculation that Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary responsible for the vetting process for Mandelson’s appointment, will soon leave No 10 as part of a wider shake-up.
Meanwhile, an unnamed minister is said to be on the verge of resigning, which could trigger a leadership challenge by a stalking horse, or even a genuine challenger.
Peter Mandelson was interviewed and warned in 2008 by British security services that he was being targeted by Russian assets. But he appears to have ignored them. It is inconceivable Keir Starmer was not aware."
🚨 NEW: Morgan McSweeney is widely expected to resign
One source says he already agreed to quit next month after the Gorton and Denton by-election - but others suggest his exit could now be imminent
The old classic about becoming the story has some truth to it. Whether he's genuinely the problem or just a sacrificial lamb, he presumably isn't going to be finding it easy to actually do stuff right now.
So 'I've become a distraction to the good work of the government' or 'This was all my fault I swear, leave Sir Keir alone' as the leading theme?
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Peter Mandelson was interviewed and warned in 2008 by British security services that he was being targeted by Russian assets. But he appears to have ignored them. It is inconceivable Keir Starmer was not aware."
I disagree with @HYUFD about Badenoch's ouster should the Tories poll below Labour in May. And yet another leadership contest would just bring ridicule and derision on the party whoever emerged as the victor. It's not going to happen.
However, he is on much stronger ground criticising her dismissal of the Ruth Davidson/Andy Street initiative and others on the one-nation wing. That was not good politics when the Conservatives need to expand their support, particularly if they stand any chance of regaining the dozens of seats lost to the LibDems in what were once their heartlands.
Well I disagree, if the Tories poll BELOW the most unpopular government of the last 50 years after the Truss administration in May, let alone below Reform too, then Tory MPs will see their seats as gone anyway, letters will flood into the 1922, a VONC will be held and Kemi will be gone by the summer.
It wouldn't be the leadership contest that would have brought derision on the party, it would be voters deciding Kemi's leadership had done that, most UK voters would have decided Kemi was so bad they wouldn't even pick her over Starmer let alone Farage!
Your second paragraph is spot on, having already lost the Jenrick wing of the party to Reform, for Kemi to then trash the centrist One Nation wing that until then were loyal to her too was a major error. It will have sent the likes of Davidson and Street from allies to enemies and they will I expect already be plotting to replace her with Cleverly
Have you asked Cleverly if he would stand against Kemi ?
If Tory MPs removed Kemi by VONC he wouldn't need to, the job would be his anyway
Tory mps wont VONC her and he may not even want it
If the Tories are third in May they definitely will VONC her, as Tory MPs would see their seats as gone otherwise
The Tories are fifth in Scotland according to the latest polling.
Kemi having an impact.
Cammo only won one seat in Scotland in 2010. He was UK PM for 6 years.
True enough, and on some models (uncertain though they are) retain more in Scotland even going sub-100 seats, but a Holyrood masscare is at the least another heavy blow if it happens.
Matching Annie's 2011 vote share and winning a couple of constituencies is probably the baseline target for worst acceptable result
I always remember Eck paying tribute to Ms Goldie after she announced she was stepping down as leader saying without her their result could have been far worse. I'd guess an absolute base of 12 or 13 MSP's or thereabouts ... there are 3 Tory constituencies which feel too posh to go Reform - Borders, W Aberdeens, Eastwood
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in. Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
Just getting a feeling right now that Reform are doing better in working class areas in Scotland than rural wards. I guess Tories will target an MSP in every region, Glasgow being the biggest challenge. Of the 5 constituencies they hold, I can't pick one which they'll definitely lose. Vote will be down, substantially, but so will the SNPs.
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Eastwood is a retread i think Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
But do you think they'll go to the Tories?
I can’t imagine [Farage] really wants he job
And despite the often prudent anxiety over the blatantly ambitious, and ideal of the reluctant and humble public servant, you probably do want someone who does actually want the job, as that should hopefully come with the drive and vision to take on the job (whether that vision is worth anything is another question).
That said, I think Farage probably does want it now, even if he did not really before. Like how I am very sure Corbyn never really wanted it, his decades on the periphery show that, but once he was in for a few years he fought as hard as he could to stamp authority on the party and lead them on.
Yes, I could well be wrong. It’s a very uncertain time, I think anything is possible. I’m not really sure what has made me go off Reform, it could be that I liked being into them when they were UKIP and a kind of Indie band, and now they’re a major label outfit, or trying to be, it doesn’t ring as true. I also think it will be absolute chaos, similar to when Leave won; the left and centre won’t accept anything PM Farage says or does without calling him racist or sexist.
It worries me Reform winning will make us like America now; noisy and crass. We need some peace and quiet. Thoughtful, considered, intelligent people in charge. But there aren’t any!
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
But do you think they'll go to the Tories?
I think they probably will do. @Stuartinromford has been at pains to say that’s where the Reform vote came from. One of the big unknowns is the DNV’s from 2024; Labour got fewer votes than 2019, as did the Lib Dem’s and the Tories. In other words, turnout was way down. It’s quite possible the 2019 Tories who didn’t vote are a large part of Reform’s VI. I’d say they were in play for Kemi
I have voted for Farage many times, but I reckon he’s winging it. I liked him better as an agitator putting pressure on the big two than potential PM. I can’t imagine he really wants he job
Unless you think Reform's current vote share can be squeezed to virtually nothing by the Tories, which doesn't strike me as at all likely, they will need each other. 35% is not enough of a democratic mandate to do what's necessary to put the country back on its feet. 55% is.
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
But do you think they'll go to the Tories?
I can’t imagine [Farage] really wants he job
And despite the often prudent anxiety over the blatantly ambitious, and ideal of the reluctant and humble public servant, you probably do want someone who does actually want the job, as that should hopefully come with the drive and vision to take on the job (whether that vision is worth anything is another question).
That said, I think Farage probably does want it now, even if he did not really before. Like how I am very sure Corbyn never really wanted it, his decades on the periphery show that, but once he was in for a few years he fought as hard as he could to stamp authority on the party and lead them on.
It worries me Reform winning will make us like America now; noisy and crass.
NYT: FBI agents equipped with a signed warrant prepared to document blood spatter and bullet holes in Renee Good's SUV received orders to stop, including from Kash Patel.
The fear? "a civil rights investigation would contradict Trump’s claim that Good “violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE Officer” who fired at her as she drove her vehicle."
However, on the bright side for Sir Keir, it seems his rock bottom is still higher than Kemi's ceiling at the moment
It’s not though is it? Kemi’s personal ratings are far better than Sir Keir’s.
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
But do you think they'll go to the Tories?
I think they probably will do. @Stuartinromford has been at pains to say that’s where the Reform vote came from. One of the big unknowns is the DNV’s from 2024; Labour got fewer votes than 2019, as did the Lib Dem’s and the Tories. In other words, turnout was way down. It’s quite possible the 2019 Tories who didn’t vote are a large part of Reform’s VI. I’d say they were in play for Kemi
I have voted for Farage many times, but I reckon he’s winging it. I liked him better as an agitator putting pressure on the big two than potential PM. I can’t imagine he really wants he job
Unless you think Reform's current vote share can be squeezed to virtually nothing by the Tories, which doesn't strike me as at all likely, they will need each other. 35% is not enough of a democratic mandate to do what's necessary to put the country back on its feet. 55% is.
A coalition would be fine. I’m repeating myself, but it would be good for Farage and for the country if he shares power with a black woman. I think he probably likes Kemi too
"I have been amazed by the seeming lack of interest or simply inability of US journalists to really get to grips with the story of Jeffrey Epstein, how he made such a fortune and why so many powerful people were seemingly so enchanted by him. What has been written has been predictably lurid, yet there is clearly so much more to this story."
They make a good point. The story is only interesting because it involves the rich and famous. This is not about child exploitation.There were more girls and of a younger age trafficed in Rotherham.
In the last two years the Israelis with the help of the Americans killed over 25,000 children.
Virginia Giuffre was abused from the age of 7 by her father and her father's best friend. We haven't been introduced to either of them but HRH Perince Andrew who possibly had sex with her aged 17 he believed consensually is now a pariah.
The only thing that gives this story legs is our prurient interest in the celebrity of the clients. And yet no one seems to be particularly interested in what these clients did or even who they were. Just the two pimps and not even who financed them and why.
Comments
They have 3 years before they fight an election
Look on the bright side, he failed in his attempt to buy Manchester United, £50,000 more and he would have owned it.
I know one of her brothers is/was the UK's biggest ever bankrupt.
Very different to Kemis base. A right wall parquet tile with a crack on both sides
The Tories are polling 5-6 points lower than they were pre GE, but Labour are polling 20 odd points lower. These hypothetical votes are going to Reform, and the question is ‘will people will vote for them in meaningful elections?’. I can’t see it, to me they are like EdM’s Labour in the early 2010s, the bubble will burst.
Although he is correct.
Ditto lots of others.
JD Vance for one.
Voting Tory is now a very elite pasttime!
This gives a true picture, not of a future result or of what will occur in the future, but that the traditional model and the two great parties are in a state of dereliction and desolation we have never seen before. The House of Commons is numerically dominated by parties the voters despise and reject, and this does not happen without reason and cause. Those bits for now are certain.
I mean do Labour MPs only talk to 2 newspapers.
Of course any sane person who deduce it's complete bull crap.
Noam Chomsky is likely the oldest person implicated but who is the youngest person implicated ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofibNrYDjdY
Even when people made the 'they're all the same' argument they didn't use to use uniparty, they'd at least say something like 'Establishment' parties instead.
Seriously, the US is the place now for well heeled chaps to bump people off etc.
Kemi having an impact.
It is not impossible such claims are true, people might have given warnings but then once the decision was made they were good little soldiers and advanced the approved lines, but that doesn't really help since it is an admission they lied to push a party narrative. Which often happens I'm sure, but you don't want to be caught out doing so.
Not so sure about Ian.
#TomorrowsPapersToday
https://x.com/jacksurfleet/status/2020246829078917590/photo/1
What's you evidence ?
Finland
2021 1.3%
2022 1.6%
2023 2.0%
2024 2.3%
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=FI
Poland has shown more urgency:
2021 2.2%
2022 2.2%
2023 3.3%
2024 4.2%
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=PL
For comparison:
UK
2021 2.1%
2022 2.2%
2023 2.2%
2024 2.3%
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=GB
I'd guess that if 2024 non voters saying Reform in polls today went back to WNV, the Lab/Tory avg would be about 22 or 23 each
It gets even worse. Mail on Sunday reports Mandelson offered Epstein advice on PR advisers as it was reporting on Virginia Giuffre’s allegations against Andrew.
https://thecritic.co.uk/australias-populist-moment-is-finally-here/
Wait...
But how does anyone know how they would act if opportunities were offered ?
There are lots of people implicated with Epstein who likely were decent guys, until they encountered Epstein.
The other two the Tories were ahead were Bucks - the LDs are the challengers here, Reform will get f all probably and Northumberland - much harder to judge
The third up in Broxbourne and the half in Fareham will be interesting in May as will Solihull
I assume Starmer was already well aware of what Mandelson was like, and knew that he was taking a risk, but he thought it might be worth it to butter-up Trump. The important questions are how thorough was the vetting, and did Starmer heed or ignore it. If the vetting was flawed but thorough and gave Starmer the all-clear he's got a chance of getting through it, but it the vetting was light-handed or if Starmer ignored the vetting then he's probably done for.
I have voted for Farage many times, but I reckon he’s winging it. I liked him better as an agitator putting pressure on the big two than potential PM. I can’t imagine he really wants he job
Epstein didn't force anybody to take part. other than the women.
They weren't decent guys.
It also is single member wards with elections only every four years.
So we won't find out.
There is also growing speculation that Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary responsible for the vetting process for Mandelson’s appointment, will soon leave No 10 as part of a wider shake-up.
Meanwhile, an unnamed minister is said to be on the verge of resigning, which could trigger a leadership challenge by a stalking horse, or even a genuine challenger.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/peter-mandelson-exit-payment-settlement-epstein-bns5qvc07
That said, I think Farage probably does want it now, even if he did not really before. Like how I am very sure Corbyn never really wanted it, his decades on the periphery show that, but once he was in for a few years he fought as hard as he could to stamp authority on the party and lead them on.
They also won the Peterborough etc mayor - there's a by election Lab held on Thursday in P'Boro/NW Cambs that Ref and Con are targeting
A quick search doesn't suggest either did.
(Lord Glasman seems to have done so, and referred to photos of him with Epstein.)
Most of the discussion at the time was concern that Trump might veto the appointment because of Mandelson's Chinese links.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/19/trump-ally-peter-mandelson-us-ambassador-job-not-blocked
On that point, whilst only 1/3 of people vote in local elections I am still surprised how often people will comment things like "I bet they're only do this because of upcoming elections" on local political stories, where they've obviously heard about some coming up and assumed it must include their area, even if they are all-out and happened only the year before.
Rather like how does anyone know how others, or even themselves, would behave if given a gun in a war zone ?
There will be people who seem to be decent guys in prominent positions right now.
And perhaps some of them will be involved in criminality which is revealed in ten or twenty years time.
And perhaps others will be involved in criminality which is never revealed.
How can we tell who is who and which is which.
Some, the likes of Mandelson and Andrew, have always been sleazy.
Whereas Bill Gates always seemed to be a decent guy who had done a lot of good in the world.
They'd polled 8% in the period before so yes, it could have been much worse
Yeah I've got 12 and 2 or 3 Constituencies pencilled in.
Eastwood might go SNP. Not sure what JCs personal vote is like.....
That's a different question and thanks for clarifying.
I may have misunderstood what you were saying.
Anyway where there is correspondence on this it is all going to be released before too long. So it's best for MPs to stick to the truth this time, because otherwise this will end badly for them. It's the ones who are not saying anything that could be interesting.
And I note that Mandelson's mate Streeting is one of those who has so far said nothing.......
Unitary doesn't really work here. It's very politically and socially varied.
On FB a disturbing number of people can't wait to vote the Labour government out and insert PM Farage in May.
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: Morgan McSweeney is widely expected to resign
One source says he already agreed to quit next month after the Gorton and Denton by-election - but others suggest his exit could now be imminent
Peter Mandelson was interviewed and warned in 2008 by British security services that he was being targeted by Russian assets. But he appears to have ignored them. It is inconceivable Keir Starmer was not aware."
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2020192383707828657
So 'I've become a distraction to the good work of the government' or 'This was all my fault I swear, leave Sir Keir alone' as the leading theme?
Not sure on JC, but Newton Mearns (south) generally weighs the Tory vote. Even with a sitting MP, Slab wont target Eastwood - it feels a bit like you scratch my back i'll scratch yours, with voters swapping Con for Holyrood and Lab for W minster
Think there are a few SNP MP retreads standing in May
Of the Tory held seats i guess I'd order likelihood of holding as Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire, Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Dumfries and Galloway
Then they'd probably target Ayr relatively hard and Banff nominally and put everything else into the list effort
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2020256389646737732#m
It worries me Reform winning will make us like America now; noisy and crass. We need some peace and quiet. Thoughtful, considered, intelligent people in charge. But there aren’t any!
https://x.com/natashakorecki/status/2020177031984501202
NYT: FBI agents equipped with a signed warrant prepared to document blood spatter and bullet holes in Renee Good's SUV received orders to stop, including from Kash Patel.
The fear? "a civil rights investigation would contradict Trump’s claim that Good “violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE Officer” who fired at her as she drove her vehicle."
In the last two years the Israelis with the help of the Americans killed over 25,000 children.
Virginia Giuffre was abused from the age of 7 by her father and her father's best friend. We haven't been introduced to either of them but HRH Perince Andrew who possibly had sex with her aged 17 he believed consensually is now a pariah.
The only thing that gives this story legs is our prurient interest in the celebrity of the clients. And yet no one seems to be particularly interested in what these clients did or even who they were. Just the two pimps and not even who financed them and why.