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The latest Gorton & Denton by-election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,115

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The Lib Dems have become the first party to call for Lord Mandelson to face an investigation for misconduct in public office - a criminal offence - over the leaking of sensitive No 10 emails

    Ed Davey, Lib Dem leader, says: 'The Epstein files suggest Peter Mandelson leaked sensitive government information to a convicted sex offender while serving as a minister, and even suggested a US bank should threaten the Government to lower its tax bill

    'These allegations are incredibly serious, it is now only right that the police investigate Peter Mandelson for potential misconduct in public office.'

    "Lock him up," cry the Orange populists.
    The difference is that Mandelson and Andrew will pay the price of their actions whereas Trump 's misdeeds will be covered up and he will get away with it.

    Does anyone seriously believe that TRump's puppets at the DOJ aren't concealing/ destroying any evidence that implicates him?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,905

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think that Labour are in really big trouble over this. They had a Cabinet member who allowed his paedophile ring running friend front run the UK market by giving him insider information about changes to tax before they were announced. Insider trading isn't a victimless crime, these people are stealing from other people including pension funds and individual investors.

    This is probably one of the most serious scandals that the country has had in a while. If the FCA is made to investigate this and it proves that Epstien and linked vehicles profited from this insider information then I hope Mandelson goes to jail for a very long time and Starmer has to resign for resurrecting his career.

    It's hard to disagree with this.

    The UK government went to a lot of trouble to install Mandelson, who the US initially rejected.

    To have installed a 'friend of Jeffrey', and one who appears to have leaked price sensitive information to him (albeit information the dissemination of which is not illegal), is extraordinary.

    The only explanation that makes sense is this:

    (1) Mandelson lied
    and
    (2) The US chose not to share information with the UK about Mandelson (either during the Biden administration or the Trump one)
    It might even be supposed that in an act of dumb 4D chess they (HMG) thought putting in a friend of Epstein as ambassador to the court of another friend of Epstein was a smart move.
    Worked out well.
    Who better than a sleazeball to handle a sleazeball?

    (I'd hope not but that thought struck me too)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,428

    SandraMc said:

    FF43 said:

    eek said:

    Mandelson was in the habit of forwarding emails from people like Jeremy Heywood to Epstein.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/2018250218655851006

    A good principle of sending any email is that it will get back to the people you'd least like to see it, and thus should be phrased accordingly.
    Earlier today we saw the damning email but couldn’t 100% confirm who it came from (albeit it was obvious).

    The reply gave the game away and I think confirms the Official Secrets Act was broken
    Alarmingly, broken by a Top Minister fifteen years ago, and we're only finding out now.

    What other Bad Shit is happening without anyone noticing?
    I suspect this type of abuse by the rich and powerful goes on now and always has done. The Epstein emails were uncovered because in the 2000's and 2010's the rich and powerful unguardedly emailed to each other, not realising the email server was capturing every communication. It was a point in time weakness. In the 1990's they would have phoned; post 2015 they would have Whatsapp'ed. And no-one would be any the wiser.
    Consider the Reformation.

    Consider the savage hatred of the existing church by a number of Protestants. And the accounts of what was going on in the monasteries in England - that were destroyed on the orders of Queen Mary. Add in the fact that a major reason for the Reformation was the extra-judicial privileges of the clergy. They were legally untouchable by the civil courts. Add in the modern scandals. Add in the fact that human nature has not changed.

    What do you get?
    Queen Mary destroyed the monasteries?????
    I think the implication is that she destroyed the evidence gathered by Wolsey and Cromwell of all the terrible practices and behaviour in the Catholic monasteries. The abolition of the monasteries wasn't all about making money for Henry 8th (and incidentally creating some amazingly atmospheric ruins for 21st century visitors who like that kind of thing...)
    Indeed.

    The reformation has its roots in history, hundreds of years previous to Henry VIII and Cromwell. The three main strands were - the Church was immune to civil law and used that strongly to protect its own, the corruption that resulted within the church and the distance from the actual Bible by the doctrine of the Church hierarchy.

    The sale of indulgences (see Martin Luther's blog page on the church door) was the tip of a big, big iceberg.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,428
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think that Labour are in really big trouble over this. They had a Cabinet member who allowed his paedophile ring running friend front run the UK market by giving him insider information about changes to tax before they were announced. Insider trading isn't a victimless crime, these people are stealing from other people including pension funds and individual investors.

    This is probably one of the most serious scandals that the country has had in a while. If the FCA is made to investigate this and it proves that Epstien and linked vehicles profited from this insider information then I hope Mandelson goes to jail for a very long time and Starmer has to resign for resurrecting his career.

    It's hard to disagree with this.

    The UK government went to a lot of trouble to install Mandelson, who the US initially rejected.

    To have installed a 'friend of Jeffrey', and one who appears to have leaked price sensitive information to him (albeit information the dissemination of which is not illegal), is extraordinary.

    The only explanation that makes sense is this:

    (1) Mandelson lied
    and
    (2) The US chose not to share information with the UK about Mandelson (either during the Biden administration or the Trump one)
    It might even be supposed that in an act of dumb 4D chess they (HMG) thought putting in a friend of Epstein as ambassador to the court of another friend of Epstein was a smart move.
    Worked out well.
    Who better than a sleazeball to handle a sleazeball?

    (I'd hope not but that thought struck me too)
    Hiring Henry Morgan to stamp out piracy comes to mind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,997
    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The Lib Dems have become the first party to call for Lord Mandelson to face an investigation for misconduct in public office - a criminal offence - over the leaking of sensitive No 10 emails

    Ed Davey, Lib Dem leader, says: 'The Epstein files suggest Peter Mandelson leaked sensitive government information to a convicted sex offender while serving as a minister, and even suggested a US bank should threaten the Government to lower its tax bill

    'These allegations are incredibly serious, it is now only right that the police investigate Peter Mandelson for potential misconduct in public office.'

    "Lock him up," cry the Orange populists.
    The difference is that Mandelson and Andrew will pay the price of their actions whereas Trump 's misdeeds will be covered up and he will get away with it.

    Does anyone seriously believe that TRump's puppets at the DOJ aren't concealing/ destroying any evidence that implicates him?
    The Maria Farmer testimony is among 3 million documents missing according to, checks notes, Maria Farmer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,997
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Gabriel_Pogrund

    Lord Mandelson emailed Jeffrey Epstein about persuading Gordon Brown to resign as prime minister.

    “Finally got him to go today” Brown resigned the following day.

    Also appears to refer to secret tunnels connecting No10 and Ministry of Defense

    https://x.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/2018345253133078813?s=20

    @DanNeidle

    Gabriel understates what happened here. We can tell from this version of the same email chain that Mandelson’s last email was sent 16:02:52 BST

    Brown’s resignation was public 19:19 BST.

    Implies Mandelson leaked price-sensitive information to a Wall Street insider.

    https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2018350835458085202?s=20

    Oh crap, if that’s true he’s going down.
    Nothing new from what I've heard.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,997
    Scott_xP said:

    @peterjukes

    Well, though it’s just unnamed FBI source, this would explain a lot.

    Putin is always suspected to have hidden his assets offshore in the Caribbean (see Sandal fund)

    And who would make the ideal wealth manager?

    (Emails to Ehud Barak suggest Putin tried to contact Epstein)

    https://x.com/peterjukes/status/2018347081400762402?s=20

    Much of the published and later removed testimony relates to the Trump Modelling Agency and very young Eastern Europeans girls. No, surely not...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,370
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    The Royal Navy’s blockade was grinding down Germany’s economy, above all, oil and petroleum imports.

    It was one of the factors that drove Barbarossa.
    Yes, we hear a lot about how Britain was an also-ran in WWII, and only bought time for the USA.

    Far from it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,370

    People may be underestimating the impact of the Mandelson scandal.

    It's Labour's Black Wednesday and will colour perceptions of their whole period of government since 1997.

    Not that big.

    Black Wednesday resonated because everyone lost a bit of their shirt.
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