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The latest Gorton & Denton by-election betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,712
    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,421

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stereodog said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    In my experience, people who want to do away with civil servants are also the kind of people who complain if they can't get through to someone from HMRC on the phone. The vast majority of civil servants work for moderate wages to try and deliver the public services that everyone else takes for granted. Perhaps you mean just the permanent secretaries and Non Execs?
    How many Permanent Secretaries visited Epstein Island? How many are mentioned in the files?

    It's quite a leap.
    How many permanent secretaries covered up for those who did visit the island? Not such a big leap, is it?
    Just think it's quite funny it took you two comments to find the real villains of the piece. Plenty of problems with the civil service but I'm not convinced Epstein is a big one.
    Or maybe that's just what you decided to pick out of what I said? I pointed to a class of unaccountable and untouchable politicians, civil servants and executives. That you seem to have latched on to just one of the three groups is on you, not me.
    I think a big part of the problem is labelling those who disagree with them as racists, thickos, lazy, uneducated etc. It enrages people.

    Actually, scratch that: a massive part.
    It doesn’t exactly make them want to go back to voting Labour or any of the parties either.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,455
    eek said:

    Mandelson was in the habit of forwarding emails from people like Jeremy Heywood to Epstein.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/2018250218655851006

    A good principle of sending any email is that it will get back to the people you'd least like to see it, and thus should be phrased accordingly.
    Earlier today we saw the damning email but couldn’t 100% confirm who it came from (albeit it was obvious).

    The reply gave the game away and I think confirms the Official Secrets Act was broken
    Alarmingly, broken by a Top Minister fifteen years ago, and we're only finding out now.

    What other Bad Shit is happening without anyone noticing?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,990

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    You're too harsh. I can't remember anyone giving me $75K either.
    Why would I remember even remember people tipping me 75K Pu? Fiddly small change.... (https://hitchhikers.fandom.com/wiki/Triganic_Pu)
    Meanwhile when the papers are full of stories about men abusing women and girls for sex, the SNP has decided that it should be on the side of the abusers and will not be supporting a bill criminalising those who buy sex.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,633
    edited 12:43PM
    Taz said:

    A further arrest for additional alleged offences of former New Labour star, Mayor and MP, Dan Norris.

    https://x.com/talktv/status/2018284735122870529?s=61

    I wonder if JRM fancies another go at the seat were it to become vacant.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,386
    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬
    BREAKING on ft website:

    Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans

    www.ft.com/content/fdf7...

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mduqnamqq22l

    You know, you go through life thinking you're a cynic who understands how the world works and then you come across things like this and you are genuinely shocked. How on earth was this man positively vetted for the Ambassador job?
    They're not very good at this politics lark.

    If the current forecasts are anywhere near correct and Reform win but end up short of a majority, Parliament 2029-2034 is going to be a clusterfuck with no progress given the lack of consensus on the way forward. You'd have thought that two parliaments (Boris/Starmer) with the major party having significant leads would allow policies to be implemented.

    We'll be looking back to the golden years of 2010-2024 as saner times.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,990
    edited 12:47PM

    eek said:

    Mandelson was in the habit of forwarding emails from people like Jeremy Heywood to Epstein.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/2018250218655851006

    A good principle of sending any email is that it will get back to the people you'd least like to see it, and thus should be phrased accordingly.
    Earlier today we saw the damning email but couldn’t 100% confirm who it came from (albeit it was obvious).

    The reply gave the game away and I think confirms the Official Secrets Act was broken
    Alarmingly, broken by a Top Minister fifteen years ago, and we're only finding out now.

    What other Bad Shit is happening without anyone noticing?
    Oh people noticed all right at the time. And some tried to do something about it. I reported Bad Shit to the authorities during the period we are talking about. Sadly, they did the square root of fuck all in response.

    And if you have even glanced at some of my articles I have pointed out Bad Shit happening right now.

    None so deaf..... Those who have the power to act either don't want to or lack the courage to do so. Hence problem -> crisis -> scandal -> outrage -> public inquiry ......
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,421
    edited 12:49PM
    Gold and silver now heading back up.

    Crazy days. Dip buyers 🤷‍♂️
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,990
    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬
    BREAKING on ft website:

    Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans

    www.ft.com/content/fdf7...

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mduqnamqq22l

    You know, you go through life thinking you're a cynic who understands how the world works and then you come across things like this and you are genuinely shocked. How on earth was this man positively vetted for the Ambassador job?
    He wasn't. Or Starmer ignored what he was told.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    Cyclefree said:

    Mandelson was in the habit of forwarding emails from people like Jeremy Heywood to Epstein.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/2018250218655851006

    A good principle of sending any email is that it will get back to the people you'd least like to see it, and thus should be phrased accordingly.
    Some of those emails appear to have been sent to a personal email address and forwarded on from there.

    Why were they not caught by any half-way IT system? This is basic stuff. Utterly negligent if government IT systems allowed emails to be sent out like this.
    Basic but unsurprising. The NCSC is stealing a living. We saw this with Covid Zoom calls going via China and with published personal (not government) email addresses of Cabinet ministers. Oh, and the Afghanistan leak, and the loss of a couple of cds with everyone's details. And that is betting without hosting government services where they are susceptible to secret American access.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,039

    Gaby Hinsliff‬
    @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social‬
    · 22m
    apart from everything else the Mandelson scandal implies for Starmer, cannot imagine a worse backdrop for a byelection than any story combining the words 'labour politician' and 'billionaire sex offender'. I genuinely feel for the poor sods out canvassing this week.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gabyhinsliff.bsky.social/post/3mduqcq3khs2b

    To be fair the Lib Dems won a by-election with the background of their leader being a pisshead and one of the people looking to replace him was shitting on male prostitutes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,231
    edited 12:55PM
    We talk about the sleeze and scandals of the last government, but could anyone have predicted how far and fast this goverment has been enveloped in the most disgusting and tawdry scandal with Epstein, and now an ex Labour mp arrested on alleged rape and sexual offences, and Tulip Siddiq sentenced to 4 years in prison in the Bangladesh corruption trial

    It just is all so depressing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,493
    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬
    BREAKING on ft website:

    Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans

    www.ft.com/content/fdf7...

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mduqnamqq22l

    You know, you go through life thinking you're a cynic who understands how the world works and then you come across things like this and you are genuinely shocked. How on earth was this man positively vetted for the Ambassador job?
    He wasn't. Or Starmer ignored what he was told.
    That's the conclusion that you are driven to. A man who had had to resign twice for misconduct, who was called the Prince of Darkness, who has been a wheeler and dealer at a high level for decades, was NOT positively vetted before being selected for the most politically sensitive ambassadorial post we have? What was Starmer thinking?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,890

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735

    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
    Gravity boots. I recommend concrete castings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567
    Taz said:

    A further arrest for additional alleged offences of former New Labour star, Mayor and MP, Dan Norris.

    https://x.com/talktv/status/2018284735122870529?s=61

    "suspicion of rape, sexual assault, voyeurism and upskirting"

    Classy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,562

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
    Yep, I'd vote Reform to stop the Greens.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735
    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬
    BREAKING on ft website:

    Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans

    www.ft.com/content/fdf7...

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mduqnamqq22l

    You know, you go through life thinking you're a cynic who understands how the world works and then you come across things like this and you are genuinely shocked. How on earth was this man positively vetted for the Ambassador job?
    I think the question devolves to this "WAS this man vetted?" I mean seriously?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415

    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
    Prosecute some for Misconduct in a Public Office. Give them a real jail term - a decade.

    This will cause a storm of anger at the "vindictiveness" - among those of that ilk.

    "pour encourager les autres"

    Which reminds me - must find the paper that analysed RN records and found a performance uptick in the decades following Admiral Byng's interview without chair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    .

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    If I had the answer I'd be trying to do something about it. I have done my bit trying to change the culture within the places I've worked. Though the chances of anyone in politics listening to an old woman about anything approximate to zero, as I have been saying for years.

    Why do you think it has taken this long to listen to what women have been saying about this? Or why women are not listened to on any other topic affecting them? This forum has not been innocent in that regard either.

    Reform is part of the same rotten cabal not a fresh broom. The Greens are batshit insane, have little regard for the law and view women as second class citizens not entitled to their rights. Their leader - who has never taken drink or drugs - decided, while stone cold sober, that he could use hypnosis to enlarge their breasts. This is nota serious person. The Tories are boneless.

    The chances of change being for the better are not high. I am not optimistic. Labour could have started the process but with a leader steeped in disingenuousness, dishonesty and a joyless illiberal authoritarianism and lacking judgment or, seemingly, any feel for the country he governs, it has missed its chance - and may have made matters worse.
    It comes down to applying the same standards of ethics, morality, rewards and penalties at the top of organisations as we demand of the bottom.

    We have, finally, moved to a world where senior NHS managers, who do things like conduct illegal campaigns of harassment against whistleblower, will be struck of the register and can't just *get another job as an NHS manager*. That's good. A start.

    The case in point, today - Mandy - if a more junior person was being recruited, multiple resignations for ethics violations would make getting a job next to impossible.

    For roles far below the level that Mandy was recruited for, the security services would build a life history detailing everything. I've had friends go for such jobs - got the calls from nice people asking about stuff 20 or 30 years back. Was this done? Who read the result, if it was?
    It ought not to have taken a huge amount of digging.

    It was fairly open knowledge that Mandelson maintained a relationship with Epstein post conviction. The Epstein plea bargain makes it very clear (on its first page) that he was guilty of rape and trafficking of children; the ridiculously lenient sentence doesn't obscure that.

    Those two facts alone should have been put to the PM within a day, surely ?
    If they weren't, then Mandelson wasn't vetted at all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567

    Gaby Hinsliff‬
    @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social‬
    · 22m
    apart from everything else the Mandelson scandal implies for Starmer, cannot imagine a worse backdrop for a byelection than any story combining the words 'labour politician' and 'billionaire sex offender'. I genuinely feel for the poor sods out canvassing this week.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gabyhinsliff.bsky.social/post/3mduqcq3khs2b

    To be fair the Lib Dems won a by-election with the background of their leader being a pisshead and one of the people looking to replace him was shitting on male prostitutes.
    Not to mention Cyril Smith.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,890
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect the Find out Now poll is not far from the truth. The Greens are overhyped for Gorton and Denton which is not inner city Manchester, voted 50% Leave and is majority working class.

    A Labour v Reform battle is likely and Labour have sensibly picked a local councillor and got Burnham back campaigning for them and will see tactical votes to beat Goodwin. Reform meanwhile will have Advance taking some of their votes, though Goodwin has been endorsed by Tommy Robinson

    It is quite obvious what you want to happen. At least have the class to admit it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
  • eekeek Posts: 32,447
    edited 1:03PM
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬
    BREAKING on ft website:

    Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans

    www.ft.com/content/fdf7...

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mduqnamqq22l

    You know, you go through life thinking you're a cynic who understands how the world works and then you come across things like this and you are genuinely shocked. How on earth was this man positively vetted for the Ambassador job?
    He wasn't. Or Starmer ignored what he was told.
    That's the conclusion that you are driven to. A man who had had to resign twice for misconduct, who was called the Prince of Darkness, who has been a wheeler and dealer at a high level for decades, was NOT positively vetted before being selected for the most politically sensitive ambassadorial post we have? What was Starmer thinking?
    Keeping Trump happy - I suspect.

    But I suspect following today’s revolutions that SKS will be gone this year.

    Remember it’s very hard to remove a Labour PM, I suspect this makes things a lot easier
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415

    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
    Gravity boots. I recommend concrete castings.
    Nah

    The old ways are best


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,890
    tlg86 said:

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
    Yep, I'd vote Reform to stop the Greens.
    Good man.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735

    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
    Prosecute some for Misconduct in a Public Office. Give them a real jail term - a decade.

    This will cause a storm of anger at the "vindictiveness" - among those of that ilk.

    "pour encourager les autres"

    Which reminds me - must find the paper that analysed RN records and found a performance uptick in the decades following Admiral Byng's interview without chair.
    Always felt a bit sorry for Byng. It shouldn't happen to someone of that Rank! But I think it did partly lead to the offensive character of the RN, something that Nelson took to the max. Being an officer at those times was not for the faint-hearted. Dressed to be visible and not allowed to duck or take cover in battle.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,488
    dixiedean said:

    Just when I thought the news couldn't get stranger I discover the Dalai Lama won a Grammy.

    Obama has 2. I’m surprised Trump isn’t consequentially demanding one.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,421
    tlg86 said:

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
    Yep, I'd vote Reform to stop the Greens.
    Same here, although unlikely here given the electoral demographics.

    The Greens are Corbynism on Steroids. If they were the fluffy environmentalists that’s one thing but they aren’t and Polanski hasn’t really been subjected to much scrutiny.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    There's also the political dimension - Stalin collapsed into a funk at the start of the invasion. And apparently expected himself to be dragged off and shot when his flunkies turned up to try and getting him moving.

    Politically, the system held. But it very nearly fell.

    While the German plan and insane and logistically ridiculous, they got to the commuter belt of Moscow. Given how centralised infrastructure in Russia was at the time, if Moscow was captured, the whole front would collapse back a long way.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,146
    Peter Mandelson resigning during a political scandal.

    It's Groundhog Day

    Again
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415

    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
    Prosecute some for Misconduct in a Public Office. Give them a real jail term - a decade.

    This will cause a storm of anger at the "vindictiveness" - among those of that ilk.

    "pour encourager les autres"

    Which reminds me - must find the paper that analysed RN records and found a performance uptick in the decades following Admiral Byng's interview without chair.
    Always felt a bit sorry for Byng. It shouldn't happen to someone of that Rank! But I think it did partly lead to the offensive character of the RN, something that Nelson took to the max. Being an officer at those times was not for the faint-hearted. Dressed to be visible and not allowed to duck or take cover in battle.
    Taking cover was allowed - see the use of hammocks as shot/splinter traps. Ducking *after* a shot has passed was frowned upon.

    Nelson was being a bit ridiculous, even by those standards. And several of his subordinates tried to change his behaviour.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,980
    edited 1:15PM
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    If I had the answer I'd be trying to do something about it. I have done my bit trying to change the culture within the places I've worked. Though the chances of anyone in politics listening to an old woman about anything approximate to zero, as I have been saying for years.

    Why do you think it has taken this long to listen to what women have been saying about this? Or why women are not listened to on any other topic affecting them? This forum has not been innocent in that regard either.

    Reform is part of the same rotten cabal not a fresh broom. The Greens are batshit insane, have little regard for the law and view women as second class citizens not entitled to their rights. Their leader - who has never taken drink or drugs - decided, while stone cold sober, that he could use hypnosis to enlarge their breasts. This is nota serious person. The Tories are boneless.

    The chances of change being for the better are not high. I am not optimistic. Labour could have started the process but with a leader steeped in disingenuousness, dishonesty and a joyless illiberal authoritarianism and lacking judgment or, seemingly, any feel for the country he governs, it has missed its chance - and may have made matters worse.
    It comes down to applying the same standards of ethics, morality, rewards and penalties at the top of organisations as we demand of the bottom.

    We have, finally, moved to a world where senior NHS managers, who do things like conduct illegal campaigns of harassment against whistleblower, will be struck of the register and can't just *get another job as an NHS manager*. That's good. A start.

    The case in point, today - Mandy - if a more junior person was being recruited, multiple resignations for ethics violations would make getting a job next to impossible.

    For roles far below the level that Mandy was recruited for, the security services would build a life history detailing everything. I've had friends go for such jobs - got the calls from nice people asking about stuff 20 or 30 years back. Was this done? Who read the result, if it was?
    It ought not to have taken a huge amount of digging.

    It was fairly open knowledge that Mandelson maintained a relationship with Epstein post conviction. The Epstein plea bargain makes it very clear (on its first page) that he was guilty of rape and trafficking of children; the ridiculously lenient sentence doesn't obscure that.

    Those two facts alone should have been put to the PM within a day, surely ?
    If they weren't, then Mandelson wasn't vetted at all.
    Mandelson's insider trading as Business Secretary over land assets, leaking of Government emails, advising JP Morgan to threaten Darling, and the payments are far more important than the salacious material.

    This is pretty close to treason. Certainly misconduct in public office. Working with Epstein and JP Morgan to threaten Darling (against Government policy) who is the C of E is astonishing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,231
    The picture of Andrew leaning over the woman on the floor was taken in Epstein’s NYC house

    It just gets darker and darker
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415
    Hmmm - http://guoxu.org/docs/encouragingothers.pdf

    "Can severe penalties ”encourage the others”? Using the famous case of the British Ad-
    miral John Byng, executed for his failure to recapture French-held Menorca in 1757,
    we examine the incentive effects of judicial punishments. Men related to Byng per-
    formed markedly better after his unexpected death.
    We generalize this result using
    information from 963 court martials. Battle performance of captains related to a court-
    martialed and convicted officers improved sharply thereafter.
    The loss of influential
    connections was key for incentive effects – officers with other important connections
    improved little after Byng’s execution or other severe sentences."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,146
    @wsj.com‬

    Exclusive: A U.S. official has alleged wrongdoing by U.S. spy chief Tulsi Gabbard in a complaint that is so highly classified it has sparked months of wrangling over how to share it with Congress, according to people familiar with the matter.

    https://bsky.app/profile/wsj.com/post/3mdupx5lik32k
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,990
    At least Mandelson has resigned. Or been made to.

    In other scandals, not only did people not resign. They were promoted and rewarded instead. See this from a year ago - https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/05/not-another-one/.

    How many of the senior people in charge at the Post Office when the wrongful prosecutions were happening -

    •Adam Crozier, Royal Mail CEO 2003 – 2010
    •Moya Greene, Royal Mail CEO 2010 – 2018
    •David Mills, Post Office MD 2002 – 2005
    •Alan Cook, Post Office MD 2006–2010
    Or its Chair
    •Allan Leighton 2002 – 2009

    have suffered any adverse consequences at all?

    A big fat zero.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    Without Britain, as you say, the Nazis would have slugged it out across Europe and one way or another, would have been left under totalitarian dictatorships. There would have been no unsinkable aircraft carrier from which America could liberate Europe. Probably no convoys of British and American military aid to Stalin. No inspiration, arming and coordination of resistance movements across Europe.

    So the key battle of ww2 was not Midway or Moscow or Stalingrad or El Alamein. The battle from which all else flowed was the Battle of Britain.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,636

    The picture of Andrew leaning over the woman on the floor was taken in Epstein’s NYC house

    It just gets darker and darker

    Prince Andrew, as he then was, visited my place of work several years ago. I never got to encounter him, but we were all told that there were to be strictly no photos. It's odd that he didn't adhere to this principle in other circumstances when it might have been much better for him if he had.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    If I had the answer I'd be trying to do something about it. I have done my bit trying to change the culture within the places I've worked. Though the chances of anyone in politics listening to an old woman about anything approximate to zero, as I have been saying for years.

    Why do you think it has taken this long to listen to what women have been saying about this? Or why women are not listened to on any other topic affecting them? This forum has not been innocent in that regard either.

    Reform is part of the same rotten cabal not a fresh broom. The Greens are batshit insane, have little regard for the law and view women as second class citizens not entitled to their rights. Their leader - who has never taken drink or drugs - decided, while stone cold sober, that he could use hypnosis to enlarge their breasts. This is nota serious person. The Tories are boneless.

    The chances of change being for the better are not high. I am not optimistic. Labour could have started the process but with a leader steeped in disingenuousness, dishonesty and a joyless illiberal authoritarianism and lacking judgment or, seemingly, any feel for the country he governs, it has missed its chance - and may have made matters worse.
    It comes down to applying the same standards of ethics, morality, rewards and penalties at the top of organisations as we demand of the bottom.

    We have, finally, moved to a world where senior NHS managers, who do things like conduct illegal campaigns of harassment against whistleblower, will be struck of the register and can't just *get another job as an NHS manager*. That's good. A start.

    The case in point, today - Mandy - if a more junior person was being recruited, multiple resignations for ethics violations would make getting a job next to impossible.

    For roles far below the level that Mandy was recruited for, the security services would build a life history detailing everything. I've had friends go for such jobs - got the calls from nice people asking about stuff 20 or 30 years back. Was this done? Who read the result, if it was?
    It ought not to have taken a huge amount of digging.

    It was fairly open knowledge that Mandelson maintained a relationship with Epstein post conviction. The Epstein plea bargain makes it very clear (on its first page) that he was guilty of rape and trafficking of children; the ridiculously lenient sentence doesn't obscure that.

    Those two facts alone should have been put to the PM within a day, surely ?
    If they weren't, then Mandelson wasn't vetted at all.
    Mandelson's insider trading as Business Secretary over land assets, leaking of Government email, advising JP Morgan to threaten Darling, and the payments are far more important than the salacious material.

    This is pretty close to treason. Working with Epstein and JP Morgan to threaten Darling who is the C of E is astonishing.
    I've heard stuff about Mandelson that would mean he should be nowhere near foreign office/ambassadorial matters. If I've heard them, how can Starmer not... Maybe its all bollocks, but my sources were pretty convincing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,633
    “The prime minister has asked for this to be urgently looked at and the prime minister believes that Peter Mandelson should not be a member of the House of Lords," a spokesman said.

    “However the prime minister does not have the power to remove [his peerage].“

    Just bring a one line bill to the House next week (or threaten to), surely! Why is Starmer so bad at politics?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,578
    Cyclefree said:

    At least Mandelson has resigned. Or been made to.

    In other scandals, not only did people not resign. They were promoted and rewarded instead. See this from a year ago - https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/05/not-another-one/.

    How many of the senior people in charge at the Post Office when the wrongful prosecutions were happening -

    •Adam Crozier, Royal Mail CEO 2003 – 2010
    •Moya Greene, Royal Mail CEO 2010 – 2018
    •David Mills, Post Office MD 2002 – 2005
    •Alan Cook, Post Office MD 2006–2010
    Or its Chair
    •Allan Leighton 2002 – 2009

    have suffered any adverse consequences at all?

    A big fat zero.

    He hasn't resigned from the Lords yet, only from Labour.

    The above are no longer in executive posts at Royal Mail
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,455
    The problem:

    Anyone with the ambition, drive and personability to make it to the top in competitive fields probably also needs to be willing to... cut corners to get to the top. It's better to renounce dark arts, but then you are tying a hand behind your back.

    As usual, those who make it to the top negatively correlate with those we need at the top.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,488

    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
    Prosecute some for Misconduct in a Public Office. Give them a real jail term - a decade.

    This will cause a storm of anger at the "vindictiveness" - among those of that ilk.

    "pour encourager les autres"

    Which reminds me - must find the paper that analysed RN records and found a performance uptick in the decades following Admiral Byng's interview without chair.
    There were 67 prosecutions for Misconduct in a Public Office for the year ending June ‘24.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,578
    edited 1:19PM

    The picture of Andrew leaning over the woman on the floor was taken in Epstein’s NYC house

    It just gets darker and darker

    You don't say! Shocked I tell you

    I expect Andrew will be sending Mandy a crate of vintage champagne this week though for taking most of the flack from these latest Epstein record releases from him
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,231
    HYUFD said:

    The picture of Andrew leaning over the woman on the floor was taken in Epstein’s NYC house

    It just gets darker and darker

    You don't say! Shocked I tell you
    As a matter of interest why do you continually downplay one of the most despised persons in this country

    I do not understand it
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,672
    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    ...my daughter was telling me that all her friends (who mostly voted LD) are all now planning to vote Conservative in Brentwood and Ongar to keep Reform out...

    You mean they...looked back in Ongar?

    B)

    And found an Oasis of conservatism.
    Ongar will definitely go Reform regardless, Reform won 77% of the vote in an Ongar Town Council election last year. The same likely goes for North Weald and much of the rural part of the seat. However Brentwood itself has mostly LD and a few Labour councillors with Tory councillors in suburban Hutton so that is where the Tories will pick up tactical votes (albeit Reform won 45% in a Hutton district council by election last year too with the Tories second)
    Why? It's a very white, well-off, property-owning (73%), centrist sort of place. What do Reform offer them?
    Reform are now the leading party of the right in polls, indeed the first placed party in most polls.

    If Reform slipped back Hutton would go Tory again but for now swing voters and most rightwingers are going Reform
    But what do Reform offer them?
    The prospect that they might not goven from the soft left, like the Tories mostly did*?

    *Yes, I know about Brexit, but that only happened because the Tory leadership messed up, and actually let the public say what they thought in a way where they couldn't then get out of doing it. Also the EU had a bad case of cutting off its nose to spite it's face during the negotiations, which resulted in a harder Brexit than either the EU or the Tory leadership wanted.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,242
    https://x.com/JasonGroves1/status/2018303648938295347

    NEW: No 10 says Keir Starmer wants Peter Mandelson out of the House of Lords ‘by hook or by crook’. But is not currently planning primary legislation to remove him…
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,197
    Forwarding government emails to someone representing a foreign bank is more than a bit naughty
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,980
    Cyclefree said:

    At least Mandelson has resigned. Or been made to.

    In other scandals, not only did people not resign. They were promoted and rewarded instead. See this from a year ago - https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/05/not-another-one/.

    How many of the senior people in charge at the Post Office when the wrongful prosecutions were happening -

    •Adam Crozier, Royal Mail CEO 2003 – 2010
    •Moya Greene, Royal Mail CEO 2010 – 2018
    •David Mills, Post Office MD 2002 – 2005
    •Alan Cook, Post Office MD 2006–2010
    Or its Chair
    •Allan Leighton 2002 – 2009

    have suffered any adverse consequences at all?

    A big fat zero.

    Mandelson remains a Peer.

    The treachery against the Government he was part of and the nation in general is mind numbing.

    I can't continue to chase Reform MP's pro-Russian adjacency if I don't call this for what it is. Mandelson by undermining Government policy is equally as despicable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    If I had the answer I'd be trying to do something about it. I have done my bit trying to change the culture within the places I've worked. Though the chances of anyone in politics listening to an old woman about anything approximate to zero, as I have been saying for years.

    Why do you think it has taken this long to listen to what women have been saying about this? Or why women are not listened to on any other topic affecting them? This forum has not been innocent in that regard either.

    Reform is part of the same rotten cabal not a fresh broom. The Greens are batshit insane, have little regard for the law and view women as second class citizens not entitled to their rights. Their leader - who has never taken drink or drugs - decided, while stone cold sober, that he could use hypnosis to enlarge their breasts. This is nota serious person. The Tories are boneless.

    The chances of change being for the better are not high. I am not optimistic. Labour could have started the process but with a leader steeped in disingenuousness, dishonesty and a joyless illiberal authoritarianism and lacking judgment or, seemingly, any feel for the country he governs, it has missed its chance - and may have made matters worse.
    To be fair, some at least of this country's problems are down to a woman....... Margaret Thatcher.


    (Runs, ducks, hides!)
    Yes - a point I made back in ....ooh look ..... January 2017 - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/20/cyclefree-asks-are-banks-the-new-unions/.

    Started by Thatcher and continued & expanded by Blair. And now Starmer & Reeves want to repeat the mistake re the City because in the intervening 30 years no-one has come up with any new thinking.
    Yes, I recall that, and agree entirely.
    I've been banging on about the toxic parts of Thatcher's legacy in other areas for even longer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,578
    edited 1:23PM
    Taz said:

    A further arrest for additional alleged offences of former New Labour star, Mayor and MP, Dan Norris.

    https://x.com/talktv/status/2018284735122870529?s=61

    Rees Mogg by election return? He is also the one Tory I could still see Reform not running a candidate against
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    Without Britain, as you say, the Nazis would have slugged it out across Europe and one way or another, would have been left under totalitarian dictatorships. There would have been no unsinkable aircraft carrier from which America could liberate Europe. Probably no convoys of British and American military aid to Stalin. No inspiration, arming and coordination of resistance movements across Europe.

    So the key battle of ww2 was not Midway or Moscow or Stalingrad or El Alamein. The battle from which all else flowed was the Battle of Britain.
    There is certainly a strong argument for that. I would counter thought that the Nazis would have struggled to land and support enough troops and material in face of the Royal Navy. You only need to look at how hard D-Day was and the scale that it needed, and compare with the hare-brained German plan of Rhine-barges heavily laden across the notoriously tricky channel. Now imagine trying to do that with the Home fleet in attendance?

    A lot of the mythology of the second world war is wrong. I don't think Churchill believed Hitler would be able to invade. Certainly after the battle of Britain there was very little threat of an actual German invasion anymore, and arguably it was never a genuine threat.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,488

    “The prime minister has asked for this to be urgently looked at and the prime minister believes that Peter Mandelson should not be a member of the House of Lords," a spokesman said.

    “However the prime minister does not have the power to remove [his peerage].“

    Just bring a one line bill to the House next week (or threaten to), surely! Why is Starmer so bad at politics?

    Primary legislation to remove a legislator is not a path democracies should be rushing to go down (not that sensible democracies have appointed-for-life second chambers).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,231
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    A further arrest for additional alleged offences of former New Labour star, Mayor and MP, Dan Norris.

    https://x.com/talktv/status/2018284735122870529?s=61

    Rees Mogg by election return? He is also the one Tory I could still see Reform not running a candidate against
    Lib dem gain if Mogg is standing
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,426

    algarkirk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    'Untouchable and above the law'. We live in a country which recognises the separation of powers as between executive, legislature and judiciary/law enforcement. We see in the USA very clearly what is happening when this is dissolved in corruption.

    No-one from you local shop lifter up to the very top wishes to be found out and made liable in any way for what they do wrong. I don't. If I park for 10 minutes without paying I like to get away with it.

    The only bodies on earth that can enforce the genuine separation of powers in respect of calling the most powerful to account are the law enforcement agencies, police and others, CPS, lawyers and the courts. If they don't do it, no-one can. If they don't do it, we like the USA don't have a genuine separation of powers.

    There is, human nature being what it is, no chance that the executive and legislature will act to put this right as against itself. The use of powers already existing is the only way to render those 'untouchable and above the law' properly accountable.

    What about doing things that are not illegal, but purely incompetent? "Untouchable" is more than just apparent legal immunity.

    How do we stop people failing upwards?
    Prosecute some for Misconduct in a Public Office. Give them a real jail term - a decade.

    This will cause a storm of anger at the "vindictiveness" - among those of that ilk.

    "pour encourager les autres"

    Which reminds me - must find the paper that analysed RN records and found a performance uptick in the decades following Admiral Byng's interview without chair.
    Norman Roger is of the firm view that shooting Byng was justified, in view of the improvements that it delivered.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415
    edited 1:24PM

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    Without Britain, as you say, the Nazis would have slugged it out across Europe and one way or another, would have been left under totalitarian dictatorships. There would have been no unsinkable aircraft carrier from which America could liberate Europe. Probably no convoys of British and American military aid to Stalin. No inspiration, arming and coordination of resistance movements across Europe.

    So the key battle of ww2 was not Midway or Moscow or Stalingrad or El Alamein. The battle from which all else flowed was the Battle of Britain.
    American military thinking was shown with the B-29 - the original specification (thinly disguised) was to bomb Germany from Newfoundland with 2000lb of bombs. The B-36 was ordered as a bomber to bomb Berlin from the contiental US with a massive bomb load.

    Both supposed that Britain would be knocked out of the war. And that war with Germany was militarily inevitable by 1940.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,672

    https://x.com/JasonGroves1/status/2018303648938295347

    NEW: No 10 says Keir Starmer wants Peter Mandelson out of the House of Lords ‘by hook or by crook’. But is not currently planning primary legislation to remove him…

    Can you get slung out by virtue of being locked up for long enough? I would have thought there's a reasonable possibility that PM is about to copy his pal Epstein and see out the rest of his days in a jail cell, in his case for breaches of the official secrets act.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,893

    Cookie said:

    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.

    You can tell I wrote this on my Ipad.

    Bloody autocorrect.
    My phone's autocorrect has switched off and i've been too lazy to correct it. Hence so many typos lately.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,488
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I suspect the Find out Now poll is not far from the truth. The Greens are overhyped for Gorton and Denton which is not inner city Manchester, voted 50% Leave and is majority working class.

    A Labour v Reform battle is likely and Labour have sensibly picked a local councillor and got Burnham back campaigning for them and will see tactical votes to beat Goodwin. Reform meanwhile will have Advance taking some of their votes, though Goodwin has been endorsed by Tommy Robinson

    It is quite obvious what you want to happen. At least have the class to admit it.
    What i want to happen is for a shock Tory gain in Gorton and Denton, however I also wanted to win the £5 million Hampstead town house Omaze price last week with about the same likelihood!
    That would’ve been nice, the Hampstead town house. I could’ve visited you for tea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,578
    theProle said:

    https://x.com/JasonGroves1/status/2018303648938295347

    NEW: No 10 says Keir Starmer wants Peter Mandelson out of the House of Lords ‘by hook or by crook’. But is not currently planning primary legislation to remove him…

    Can you get slung out by virtue of being locked up for long enough? I would have thought there's a reasonable possibility that PM is about to copy his pal Epstein and see out the rest of his days in a jail cell, in his case for breaches of the official secrets act.
    If over a year in jail yes under the 2015 House of Lords Act
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735
    Cyclefree said:

    At least Mandelson has resigned. Or been made to.

    In other scandals, not only did people not resign. They were promoted and rewarded instead. See this from a year ago - https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/05/not-another-one/.

    How many of the senior people in charge at the Post Office when the wrongful prosecutions were happening -

    •Adam Crozier, Royal Mail CEO 2003 – 2010
    •Moya Greene, Royal Mail CEO 2010 – 2018
    •David Mills, Post Office MD 2002 – 2005
    •Alan Cook, Post Office MD 2006–2010
    Or its Chair
    •Allan Leighton 2002 – 2009

    have suffered any adverse consequences at all?

    A big fat zero.

    I'm convinced that one of the issues was that Horizon was meant to trap those on the fiddle, who the NU10K believed to be legion, and lo! it did. So I think they mostly just assumed that they were finally getting the thieving little scrotes.

    And no-one reads Private Eye any more, especially after Wakefield. So who cares if the odd postmaster claims the software is faulty? Get an expert to say it isn't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,242

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Is that a quote from the Epstein files?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,426

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    The Royal Navy’s blockade was grinding down Germany’s economy, above all, oil and petroleum imports.

    It was one of the factors that drove Barbarossa.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,353
    There has always been something of the night about Mandleson.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567

    https://x.com/JasonGroves1/status/2018303648938295347

    NEW: No 10 says Keir Starmer wants Peter Mandelson out of the House of Lords ‘by hook or by crook’. But is not currently planning primary legislation to remove him…

    Bit easier if he is found to be a crook...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,895

    dixiedean said:

    Just when I thought the news couldn't get stranger I discover the Dalai Lama won a Grammy.

    Obama has 2. I’m surprised Trump isn’t consequentially demanding one.
    Demanding three surely?
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,421

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    If I had the answer I'd be trying to do something about it. I have done my bit trying to change the culture within the places I've worked. Though the chances of anyone in politics listening to an old woman about anything approximate to zero, as I have been saying for years.

    Why do you think it has taken this long to listen to what women have been saying about this? Or why women are not listened to on any other topic affecting them? This forum has not been innocent in that regard either.

    Reform is part of the same rotten cabal not a fresh broom. The Greens are batshit insane, have little regard for the law and view women as second class citizens not entitled to their rights. Their leader - who has never taken drink or drugs - decided, while stone cold sober, that he could use hypnosis to enlarge their breasts. This is nota serious person. The Tories are boneless.

    The chances of change being for the better are not high. I am not optimistic. Labour could have started the process but with a leader steeped in disingenuousness, dishonesty and a joyless illiberal authoritarianism and lacking judgment or, seemingly, any feel for the country he governs, it has missed its chance - and may have made matters worse.
    It comes down to applying the same standards of ethics, morality, rewards and penalties at the top of organisations as we demand of the bottom.

    We have, finally, moved to a world where senior NHS managers, who do things like conduct illegal campaigns of harassment against whistleblower, will be struck of the register and can't just *get another job as an NHS manager*. That's good. A start.

    The case in point, today - Mandy - if a more junior person was being recruited, multiple resignations for ethics violations would make getting a job next to impossible.

    For roles far below the level that Mandy was recruited for, the security services would build a life history detailing everything. I've had friends go for such jobs - got the calls from nice people asking about stuff 20 or 30 years back. Was this done? Who read the result, if it was?
    It ought not to have taken a huge amount of digging.

    It was fairly open knowledge that Mandelson maintained a relationship with Epstein post conviction. The Epstein plea bargain makes it very clear (on its first page) that he was guilty of rape and trafficking of children; the ridiculously lenient sentence doesn't obscure that.

    Those two facts alone should have been put to the PM within a day, surely ?
    If they weren't, then Mandelson wasn't vetted at all.
    Mandelson's insider trading as Business Secretary over land assets, leaking of Government emails, advising JP Morgan to threaten Darling, and the payments are far more important than the salacious material.

    This is pretty close to treason. Certainly misconduct in public office. Working with Epstein and JP Morgan to threaten Darling (against Government policy) who is the C of E is astonishing.
    This first paragraph absolutely gets to the point.

    This stuff is far more serious than any of the gossipy stuff.

    Sadly, given how the media operates on clicks and engagement I expect the gossipy stuff to be first and foremost.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,578

    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    A further arrest for additional alleged offences of former New Labour star, Mayor and MP, Dan Norris.

    https://x.com/talktv/status/2018284735122870529?s=61

    Rees Mogg by election return? He is also the one Tory I could still see Reform not running a candidate against
    Lib dem gain if Mogg is standing
    No chance of that, Mogg would unite the rightwing vote and win easily, the LDs only got 7% in North East Somerset and Hainham in 2024, barely half their national voteshare and were a poor 4th
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
    I utterly reject the Goodwiln - Robinson - Farage Trump tribute act and would vote for anyone best to beat them

    They are nothing like the 1997 conservatives nor the party I have supported for over 60 years
    Good man.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    Without Britain, as you say, the Nazis would have slugged it out across Europe and one way or another, would have been left under totalitarian dictatorships. There would have been no unsinkable aircraft carrier from which America could liberate Europe. Probably no convoys of British and American military aid to Stalin. No inspiration, arming and coordination of resistance movements across Europe.

    So the key battle of ww2 was not Midway or Moscow or Stalingrad or El Alamein. The battle from which all else flowed was the Battle of Britain.
    American military thinking was shown with the B-29 - the original specification (thinly disguised) was to bomb Germany from Newfoundland with 2000lb of bombs. The B-36 was ordered as a bomber to bomb Berlin from the contiental US with a massive bomb load.

    Both supposed that Britain would be knocked out of the war. And that war with Germany was militarily inevitable by 1940.
    People often forget that Roosevelt knew America would have to fight Nazi Germany. The American story of WW2 is amazing - going from tiny army and airforce to what both became in such a short time, plus becoming the armoury of the free world. Just astonishing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,633

    “The prime minister has asked for this to be urgently looked at and the prime minister believes that Peter Mandelson should not be a member of the House of Lords," a spokesman said.

    “However the prime minister does not have the power to remove [his peerage].“

    Just bring a one line bill to the House next week (or threaten to), surely! Why is Starmer so bad at politics?

    Primary legislation to remove a legislator is not a path democracies should be rushing to go down (not that sensible democracies have appointed-for-life second chambers).
    Removal of a life appointment doesn’t feel particularly controversial? If this was an elected MP, I understand, but this is someone appointed by a government that at time had the confidence of the House, so by the same token I see nothing particularly contentious about that appointment being revoked. I concede it might be a tad more sensitive if it was an opposition member, and at that point I would hope that that party would be appropriately consulted and consenting.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,712
    edited 1:29PM
    IanB2 said:

    Forwarding government emails to someone representing a foreign bank is more than a bit naughty

    The email timing is weird. 4 seconds to forward.

    Was there auto-forward on a personal email account so stuff could be quickly passed on from an official account?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
    Yep, I'd vote Reform to stop the Greens.
    Same here, although unlikely here given the electoral demographics.

    The Greens are Corbynism on Steroids. If they were the fluffy environmentalists that’s one thing but they aren’t and Polanski hasn’t really been subjected to much scrutiny.

    Neither party is one I would vote for.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,717
    kle4 said:

    Cookie said:

    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.

    You can tell I wrote this on my Ipad.

    Bloody autocorrect.
    My phone's autocorrect has switched off and i've been too lazy to correct it. Hence so many typos lately.
    I have deliberately switched autocorrect off. Far more typos, but far fewer complete changes of meaning.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,488
    theProle said:

    https://x.com/JasonGroves1/status/2018303648938295347

    NEW: No 10 says Keir Starmer wants Peter Mandelson out of the House of Lords ‘by hook or by crook’. But is not currently planning primary legislation to remove him…

    Can you get slung out by virtue of being locked up for long enough? I would have thought there's a reasonable possibility that PM is about to copy his pal Epstein and see out the rest of his days in a jail cell, in his case for breaches of the official secrets act.
    Yes, the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 section 3 means you are expelled if sentenced for more than a year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,242
    People may be underestimating the impact of the Mandelson scandal.

    It's Labour's Black Wednesday and will colour perceptions of their whole period of government since 1997.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962

    “The prime minister has asked for this to be urgently looked at and the prime minister believes that Peter Mandelson should not be a member of the House of Lords," a spokesman said.

    “However the prime minister does not have the power to remove [his peerage].“

    Just bring a one line bill to the House next week (or threaten to), surely! Why is Starmer so bad at politics?

    Ian Hislop made the same point about Prince Andrew and all the constitutional difficulties in removing his titles, then someone shouted at the King outside a church and it could be done in an afternoon. Ah, here we are:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8NHef83TGJE
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,242
    https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2018304822412247335

    This is completely insane.

    Just so we’re clear: significantly worse than Boris Johnson eating cake during lockdown. This is a guy acting like a lobbyist, while at the heart of government.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,636
    What I want to know is this: when did US intelligence become aware of the Mandelson revelations, did they inform their British counterparts and if so when?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,194

    Cyclefree said:

    At least Mandelson has resigned. Or been made to.

    In other scandals, not only did people not resign. They were promoted and rewarded instead. See this from a year ago - https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/05/not-another-one/.

    How many of the senior people in charge at the Post Office when the wrongful prosecutions were happening -

    •Adam Crozier, Royal Mail CEO 2003 – 2010
    •Moya Greene, Royal Mail CEO 2010 – 2018
    •David Mills, Post Office MD 2002 – 2005
    •Alan Cook, Post Office MD 2006–2010
    Or its Chair
    •Allan Leighton 2002 – 2009

    have suffered any adverse consequences at all?

    A big fat zero.

    I'm convinced that one of the issues was that Horizon was meant to trap those on the fiddle, who the NU10K believed to be legion, and lo! it did. So I think they mostly just assumed that they were finally getting the thieving little scrotes.

    And no-one reads Private Eye any more, especially after Wakefield. So who cares if the odd postmaster claims the software is faulty? Get an expert to say it isn't.
    IIRC Computer Weekly broke the story before the Eye
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415

    “The prime minister has asked for this to be urgently looked at and the prime minister believes that Peter Mandelson should not be a member of the House of Lords," a spokesman said.

    “However the prime minister does not have the power to remove [his peerage].“

    Just bring a one line bill to the House next week (or threaten to), surely! Why is Starmer so bad at politics?

    Primary legislation to remove a legislator is not a path democracies should be rushing to go down (not that sensible democracies have appointed-for-life second chambers).
    Removal of a life appointment doesn’t feel particularly controversial? If this was an elected MP, I understand, but this is someone appointed by a government that at time had the confidence of the House, so by the same token I see nothing particularly contentious about that appointment being revoked. I concede it might be a tad more sensitive if it was an opposition member, and at that point I would hope that that party would be appropriately consulted and consenting.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_(Expulsion_and_Suspension)_Act_2015
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,488

    “The prime minister has asked for this to be urgently looked at and the prime minister believes that Peter Mandelson should not be a member of the House of Lords," a spokesman said.

    “However the prime minister does not have the power to remove [his peerage].“

    Just bring a one line bill to the House next week (or threaten to), surely! Why is Starmer so bad at politics?

    Primary legislation to remove a legislator is not a path democracies should be rushing to go down (not that sensible democracies have appointed-for-life second chambers).
    Removal of a life appointment doesn’t feel particularly controversial? If this was an elected MP, I understand, but this is someone appointed by a government that at time had the confidence of the House, so by the same token I see nothing particularly contentious about that appointment being revoked. I concede it might be a tad more sensitive if it was an opposition member, and at that point I would hope that that party would be appropriately consulted and consenting.
    I think it better for the Lords to do it themselves as per the House of Lords (Expulsion and Suspension) Act 2015.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567
    Taz said:

    tlg86 said:

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
    Yep, I'd vote Reform to stop the Greens.
    Same here, although unlikely here given the electoral demographics.

    The Greens are Corbynism on Steroids. If they were the fluffy environmentalists that’s one thing but they aren’t and Polanski hasn’t really been subjected to much scrutiny.

    With their position on legalising drugs, the Greens are getting onto a Libertarian platform.

    I have no idea how they could possibly govern.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,588

    https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2018304822412247335

    This is completely insane.

    Just so we’re clear: significantly worse than Boris Johnson eating cake during lockdown. This is a guy acting like a lobbyist, while at the heart of government.

    Boris didn't just eat cake, he left his security detail behind to meet KGB agents for one. Then gave the dad of the KGB agent a peerage.

    No-one really cared once the story moved on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415
    Dopermean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    At least Mandelson has resigned. Or been made to.

    In other scandals, not only did people not resign. They were promoted and rewarded instead. See this from a year ago - https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/05/not-another-one/.

    How many of the senior people in charge at the Post Office when the wrongful prosecutions were happening -

    •Adam Crozier, Royal Mail CEO 2003 – 2010
    •Moya Greene, Royal Mail CEO 2010 – 2018
    •David Mills, Post Office MD 2002 – 2005
    •Alan Cook, Post Office MD 2006–2010
    Or its Chair
    •Allan Leighton 2002 – 2009

    have suffered any adverse consequences at all?

    A big fat zero.

    I'm convinced that one of the issues was that Horizon was meant to trap those on the fiddle, who the NU10K believed to be legion, and lo! it did. So I think they mostly just assumed that they were finally getting the thieving little scrotes.

    And no-one reads Private Eye any more, especially after Wakefield. So who cares if the odd postmaster claims the software is faulty? Get an expert to say it isn't.
    IIRC Computer Weekly broke the story before the Eye
    The fun bit, which people are tiptoeing around, is that the Horizon system allowed the people with the right access* to modify transactions *without audit*

    Given that the very dodgy investigators were being incentivised to find fraud....

    *No, the SPMs didn't have this kind of access.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,426
    How long before Mandleson says:

    “I think I’m the real victim, here.”
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962

    What I want to know is this: when did US intelligence become aware of the Mandelson revelations, did they inform their British counterparts and if so when?

    That depends whether Epstein was working for the CIA (or KGB or Mossad).
  • glwglw Posts: 10,714
    edited 1:39PM
    DavidL said:

    Jim Pickard

    @pickardje.bsky.social‬
    BREAKING on ft website:

    Lord Peter Mandelson leaked a sensitive UK government document to Jeffrey Epstein while he was business secretary that proposed £20bn of asset sales and revealed Labour’s tax policy plans

    www.ft.com/content/fdf7...

    https://bsky.app/profile/pickardje.bsky.social/post/3mduqnamqq22l

    You know, you go through life thinking you're a cynic who understands how the world works and then you come across things like this and you are genuinely shocked. How on earth was this man positively vetted for the Ambassador job?
    It's mad that essentially everybody who knows anything about politics in the UK said something along the lines of "he's a sleazy creep and you can't trust him" and yet Starmer still appointed him to be the Trump-whisperer.

    1. Mandelson was not much good at dealing with Trump.
    2. Mandelson is politically toxic for the Labour Party.
    3. Vetting procedures are apparently a joke.

    So Starmer's got three big problems due to his stupid decision. Starmer's judgment isn't really any better than the likes of Boris, and he only looks relatively okay as a PM thanks to Truss.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,194

    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win

    That is an appallingly irresponsible attitude. Reform are roughly a political match for the Tories in 1997. The Greens want to see an end to property rental, an end to the nuclear deterrent, the decriminalisation of all hard drugs, and potentially the abolition of the police force.

    I would hope that if you were ever given a real choice between the two, a more sober judgement would prevail over petty political point-scoring.
    Reform are not a rough political match for the Tories in 1997. As one example, here’s what the 1997 manifesto said on global warming:

    “We will also continue to provide leadership in Europe and internationally on environmental issues, building on the Rio Conference to encourage sustainable development – meeting our commitment to reduce Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions by 10% on 1990 levels by 2010 to prevent climate change. The Prime Minister has committed himself to attending the next UN Environmental Conference in June.”

    Or there’s this:

    “The government has a positive vision for the European Union as a partnership of nations. We want to be in Europe but not run by Europe. We have much to gain from our membership of the European Union –in trade, in co-operation between governments, and in preserving European peace. We benefit from the huge trade opportunities that have opened up since Britain led the way in developing Europe’s single market. We want to see the rest of Europe follow the same deregulated, enterprise policies that have transformed our economic prospects in Britain.”

    Or:

    “We will ensure that, while genuine asylum seekers are treated sympathetically, people do not abuse these provisions to avoid normal immigration controls.”

    Or:

    “Everybody, regardless of colour or creed, has the right to go about his or her life free from the threat of intimidation. We are taking tough action to tackle harassment. Under proposals in the Protection from Harassment Act 1997, it will be a crime to behave in a way which causes someone else to be harassed. The maximum penalty will be 6 months in prison.“
    Slightly to the left of Labour's current position then :)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,650

    Cyclefree said:

    At least Mandelson has resigned. Or been made to.

    In other scandals, not only did people not resign. They were promoted and rewarded instead. See this from a year ago - https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/01/05/not-another-one/.

    How many of the senior people in charge at the Post Office when the wrongful prosecutions were happening -

    •Adam Crozier, Royal Mail CEO 2003 – 2010
    •Moya Greene, Royal Mail CEO 2010 – 2018
    •David Mills, Post Office MD 2002 – 2005
    •Alan Cook, Post Office MD 2006–2010
    Or its Chair
    •Allan Leighton 2002 – 2009

    have suffered any adverse consequences at all?

    A big fat zero.

    I'm convinced that one of the issues was that Horizon was meant to trap those on the fiddle, who the NU10K believed to be legion, and lo! it did. So I think they mostly just assumed that they were finally getting the thieving little scrotes.

    And no-one reads Private Eye any more, especially after Wakefield. So who cares if the odd postmaster claims the software is faulty? Get an expert to say it isn't.
    Not sure about that

    "Private Eye remains the best-selling news magazine in the UK with an average of 231,315 sales per fortnight, but this figure was down 6% year on year"

    https://pressgazette.co.uk/media-audience-and-business-data/media_metrics/magazine-abcs-2024-private-eye-sales-dip-as-current-affairs-mags-flag/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567

    What I want to know is this: when did US intelligence become aware of the Mandelson revelations, did they inform their British counterparts and if so when?

    That depends whether Epstein was working for the CIA (or KGB or Mossad).
    Most likely all three.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    .

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I'm glad that someone has mentioned the leaks of confidential information to Epstein. Misconduct at an absolute minimum. But it could potentially also be the passing on of unpublished price sensitive information - a criminal offence - and if Epstein or others traded on the basis of such information that would be insider dealing. It is potentially incredibly serious.

    I was doing quite a few leak inquiries around this time and if government was involved it was pretty obvious that many of the leaks came from it - and to a few favoured journalists. There are a few names I'd be very interested to see if they appear in these files.

    Mandelson should be expelled from the Lords. Starmer is weak in not having announced this already and in allowing him to resign rather than expelling him.

    I think Mandleson probably has far too much dirt on everyone in the echelons of power in this country to be deposed in such a manner. His friendship with Epstein who looks as though he was working as a triple agent for the CIA, Mosad and the Russians probably came with the benefits of having all of these little facts about the people he could use against them.
    Sweep the whole rotten cabal away. It's not as if they've been any good at their day jobs.
    I don't disagree with you and have been saying as much for the better part of 10 years. We have a class of politicians, civil servants and executives who exist in a separate world in which they are untouchable and above the law. If you can figure out a way to sweep them away without setting the country down the path to fascism I'm all ears. I think a Tory/Reform coalition might be the only realistic way to get change which sounds ridiculous but the time of centrist dads just knuckling under has allowed the rot to fester and take over. There are so many scandals for which these same self satisfied centrist dads tell the rest of us to keep quiet while protecting the powerful people who perpetrate and cover up serious crimes.

    The system is broken and the smug centrists are all around us telling us that it isn't. Attempting to convince everyone that the sky is green because admitting that they've been wrong about everything for the past 20 years is too much to handle.
    If I had the answer I'd be trying to do something about it. I have done my bit trying to change the culture within the places I've worked. Though the chances of anyone in politics listening to an old woman about anything approximate to zero, as I have been saying for years.

    Why do you think it has taken this long to listen to what women have been saying about this? Or why women are not listened to on any other topic affecting them? This forum has not been innocent in that regard either.

    Reform is part of the same rotten cabal not a fresh broom. The Greens are batshit insane, have little regard for the law and view women as second class citizens not entitled to their rights. Their leader - who has never taken drink or drugs - decided, while stone cold sober, that he could use hypnosis to enlarge their breasts. This is nota serious person. The Tories are boneless.

    The chances of change being for the better are not high. I am not optimistic. Labour could have started the process but with a leader steeped in disingenuousness, dishonesty and a joyless illiberal authoritarianism and lacking judgment or, seemingly, any feel for the country he governs, it has missed its chance - and may have made matters worse.
    It comes down to applying the same standards of ethics, morality, rewards and penalties at the top of organisations as we demand of the bottom.

    We have, finally, moved to a world where senior NHS managers, who do things like conduct illegal campaigns of harassment against whistleblower, will be struck of the register and can't just *get another job as an NHS manager*. That's good. A start.

    The case in point, today - Mandy - if a more junior person was being recruited, multiple resignations for ethics violations would make getting a job next to impossible.

    For roles far below the level that Mandy was recruited for, the security services would build a life history detailing everything. I've had friends go for such jobs - got the calls from nice people asking about stuff 20 or 30 years back. Was this done? Who read the result, if it was?
    It ought not to have taken a huge amount of digging.

    It was fairly open knowledge that Mandelson maintained a relationship with Epstein post conviction. The Epstein plea bargain makes it very clear (on its first page) that he was guilty of rape and trafficking of children; the ridiculously lenient sentence doesn't obscure that.

    Those two facts alone should have been put to the PM within a day, surely ?
    If they weren't, then Mandelson wasn't vetted at all.
    Mandelson's insider trading as Business Secretary over land assets, leaking of Government emails, advising JP Morgan to threaten Darling, and the payments are far more important than the salacious material.

    This is pretty close to treason. Certainly misconduct in public office. Working with Epstein and JP Morgan to threaten Darling (against Government policy) who is the C of E is astonishing.
    I don't disagree.
    But the relationship with Epstein was public knowledge; the leak revelation wasn't.

    The "salacious stuff' ought to have meant there was no excuse for more extensively vetting him.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,488
    So, Matt Goodwin says he’s the first person in his direct family to go to university, but his dad has an MBA and a PhD. His dad did the MBA as a mature student when little Matt was 3, before his parents divorced. Is this a lie then?

    We’ve talked about this before, but I’m surprised one of the other parties or a friendly journalist hasn’t made more of this!
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,344

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Battlebus said:

    ... When did Sterling lose it 'reserve currency' crown to the US? And how long did the switch take?

    I think it was the first half of the 20th century, but where within that I don't know.

    [EDIT: If you want a single year, Perplexity.ai says Bretton Woods in 1944, but the loss of reserve currency status was a process not an event and stretched from 1930s devaluations, 1944 Bretton Woods, 1971 Nixon Shock, through to 1972–1973 shift to floating exchange rates]

    Two word answer: Bretton Woods.

    Edit: your edit hit first.
    Or three - World War Two.

    To win WW2, the British Empire liquidated its entire gold reserves, those who understand know what that means, it essentially means you are mortgaging your entire nation and empire.

    This, in the long term lost Britain its empire, bankrupted its people and led to the only recourse being a post-war loan from the USA to just continue existence which was only paid off in 2006.
    ...
    We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be.
    Counterfactuals are a waste of time, but...

    If Halifax had had his way, a compromised peace with Hitler agreed, could the Nazis have beaten the USSR? Arguably the failings of Barbarossa would have occurred in any campaign into the East - the extreme distances, the ability of the USSR to move its production beyond the Urals, the sheer size of the USSR man-power pool, its industrial capacity, the lack of roads, the weather etc. Its hard to argue that the UK had much impact on the outcome in 1941 (a few pin prick air raids, the distraction in Africa, the delay in Greece notwithstanding).
    Without Britain, as you say, the Nazis would have slugged it out across Europe and one way or another, would have been left under totalitarian dictatorships. There would have been no unsinkable aircraft carrier from which America could liberate Europe. Probably no convoys of British and American military aid to Stalin. No inspiration, arming and coordination of resistance movements across Europe.

    So the key battle of ww2 was not Midway or Moscow or Stalingrad or El Alamein. The battle from which all else flowed was the Battle of Britain.
    There is certainly a strong argument for that. I would counter thought that the Nazis would have struggled to land and support enough troops and material in face of the Royal Navy. You only need to look at how hard D-Day was and the scale that it needed, and compare with the hare-brained German plan of Rhine-barges heavily laden across the notoriously tricky channel. Now imagine trying to do that with the Home fleet in attendance?

    A lot of the mythology of the second world war is wrong. I don't think Churchill believed Hitler would be able to invade. Certainly after the battle of Britain there was very little threat of an actual German invasion anymore, and arguably it was never a genuine threat.
    OTOH, had the Germans landed and lost the western Allies may have been more pessimistic about their own seaborne invasions and we could have held back on D-Day until '45 or '46.
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