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The latest Gorton & Denton by-election betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,923
edited 8:34AM in General
The latest Gorton & Denton by-election betting – politicalbetting.com

I suspect the infamous, statistically irrelevant, Find Out Now poll has allowed Labour to frame the narrative as a two horse race between them and Reform, if the by-election is framed as stopping Reform then Labour could profit, particularly the views of the Reform candidate on those he considers British.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,231
    Good morning

    Despite Polanski and Greens being as unsuitable for government as Farage I would vote Green just to hope Reform do not win
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,445
    Any idea why the Greens are strongish favourites? They’d be my preferred choice but it’d be interesting to know if there’s data behind it.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,386
    edited 8:07AM
    Having a look at the Dec 25 Electoral Calculus MRP and plotting it against my preferred IMD metric (Index of Multiple Deprivation). Due to some data mismatch, can't produce something statistically valid, but heuristically (!) the MRP indicates that Reform are gutting Labour support in the poorer areas. So if this trend is correct the Gorton and Denton is the sort of area that Reform must win to confirm this trend. If they don't, then it looks like candidate selection will be Reform's Achilles heal - which might explain their current predilection for battle hardened Tory retreds.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20260113.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,197
    Despite their massive majority, it would be a brave punter who put money on a Labour hold right now. The news over coming days is likely to be torrid.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 54,197
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Any idea why the Greens are strongish favourites? They’d be my preferred choice but it’d be interesting to know if there’s data behind it.

    Judging by the crowd pic at the weekend, they're throwing a ton of helpers in there. It's a historic left-leaning seat and Labour is doing everything it can to give people reasons not to vote for them.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    From the header:-
    System said:


    I suspect the infamous, statistically irrelevant, Find Out Now poll has allowed Labour to frame the narrative as a two horse race between them and Reform

    Labour being 5/1 against on Betfair suggests no-one sees this as a 2-horse race with Labour. Was that a typo in the header and Greens was meant?

    Betfair's prices are:-
    Green 1.86 (implying a 54% chance of taking the seat)
    Reform 3.15 (or 32%)
    Labour 6.2 (or 16%)

    My feeling is Labour is value at the price but I've nothing to go on other than it ought to be a safe Labour seat which is why Burnham wanted it. Unless Labour activists effectively strike over Burnham's rejection by the NEC, which is possible, 11/2 looks too big. That said, the market probably knows more than me. The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,039
    edited 8:31AM
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    I suspect the infamous, statistically irrelevant, Find Out Now poll has allowed Labour to frame the narrative as a two horse race between them and Reform



    Labour being 5/1 against on Betfair suggests no-one sees this as a 2-horse race with Labour. Was that a typo in the header and Greens was meant?

    Betfair's prices are:-
    Green 1.86 (implying a 54% chance of taking the seat)
    Reform 3.15 (or 32%)
    Labour 6.2 (or 16%)

    My feeling is Labour is value at the price but I've nothing to go on other than it ought to be a safe Labour seat which is why Burnham wanted it. Unless Labour activists effectively strike over Burnham's rejection by the NEC, which is possible, 11/2 looks too big. That said, the market probably knows more than me. The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.
    In the constituency and on social media, Labour are pumping out bar charts like this.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,146
    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,759
    The combined Reform-Tory vote here at the last election was 24%.

    The combined Labour-Green vote was 63%.

    The Greens were only 1% behind Reform.

    Seems to be fairly logical that one of Green or Labour should win here. Even if their vote is split and Reform consolidate all the right-wing vote, one of the left-leaning parties would win.

    I suspect voters will take the opportunity to give Labour a bit of a kicking and the Greens win.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,893
    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    Buggeration factor is a good descriptor of how some by elections go down, based on the scale and sometimes peculiar support changes, and so its an important thing to factor in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,893
    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    What's with Trump's 'thank you for your attention to this matter' signoff I've seen a few times?

    Feels odd, like it's a sign someone else drafted that particular one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,893
    edited 8:36AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    In the constituency and on social media, Labour are pumping out bar charts like this.




    'X can't win here' has become such a cliche misleading bar chart, we need something new for the modern age.

    Though on another matter i did see a Tory leaflet extolling the virtues and fairness of PR...in Wales. (Or at least some form of more proportional system).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,893
    edited 8:36AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    In the constituency and on social media, Labour are pumping out bar charts like this.




    Also, if i were an angry lefty i'd see that and go 'Green are not that far behind Labour, i should switch as they have a chance'.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567
    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,717
    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,686
    Andy Burnham will be laughing into his morning coffee today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,971
    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    Gaza isn't gone as an issue, and the Greens are much more likely than Labour to hoover up that vote.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,466
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
    Trump seems to have less concept of, or care for, necessary political approval than a medieval king who just wants more money and is annoyed a Parliament won't rubber stamp his desired tax.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567
    edited 8:36AM
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:



    In the constituency and on social media, Labour are pumping out bar charts like this.


    Also, if i were an angry lefty i'd see that and go 'Green are not that far behind Labour, i should switch as they have a chance'.
    It also tells Reform voters "You are winning". Great motivation to go out to vote and give Labour a kicking...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,558
    FPT
    Jim_Miller said:

    For rcs1000: "Meetings of the president with the full cabinet tend to get a pretty bad press. Many who have attended them describe them as boring and a waste of time. Indeed, some presidents have held very few. Most presidents have held cabinet meetings only about once a month. Clinton managed only 2 or 3 a year, while at the other extreme both Carter and Reagan held 36 meetings in their first year in office. The number of meetings tends to decline as the administration wears on."
    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    So, the short answer for how often the US Cabinet meets is: "It depends/"

    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    On the general question of Biden's disability: From what I can tell, he often had periods of lucidity, but would fade out from time to time, especially when he was tired.

    (One thing that kept me from paying as much attention to it as I should have, is his stuttering problem. He overcame it mostly, but even when he was much younger, he had periods in which he had trouble speaking clearly.)

    Isn’t that because in the UK the Cabinet is a sub-committee of the Privy Council so members are collectively responsible. In the US each Secretary has independent executive authority sub directly to the President. So the US Cabinet is just a means to update colleagues while - in theory - the UK Cabinet is a decision making body
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567
    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    Amnesia is highly contagious in political circles.

    Patient Zero has been identified as Nicola Sturgeon.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,039
    Cookie said:

    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.

    You can tell I wrote this on my Ipad.

    Bloody autocorrect.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,686
    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    Amnesia is highly contagious in political circles.

    Patient Zero has been identified as Nicola Sturgeon.
    Only three weeks until a certain Mr Murrell appears in court.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0px25y2jxo
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,445
    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    Dunno, isn’t some vestige of positivity from the Greens also helping, as opposed to the weariness evinced by the shagged out traditional parties and the bilious anger being channelled by Reform? Hopey, changey is out of fashion, but seeing a bit of it must be a relief from perpetual, enervating rage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,971
    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    I suspect the Greens "tax the rich" policy goes down well on the doorsteps there.

    With the Workers Party not standing, and Advance UK choosing a candidate who beat Reform (as an Independent) in the 2024 GM Mayoral race, and Burnham out helping the Lab candidate the momentum has shifted left.

    I think Greens are too short and have had a nibble on Lab Hold, so green on Green and Red now.

    If Reform come third then the national narrative may change.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,466
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.

    You can tell I wrote this on my Ipad.

    Bloody autocorrect.
    Mr. Eagles, is this an AI pretending to be you? Surely the real TSE would never blaspheme against the holy icons of Apple?
  • eekeek Posts: 32,447
    edited 8:39AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.

    You can tell I wrote this on my Ipad.

    Bloody autocorrect.
    I thought you were just doing a Brian Blessed joke. Gordon's (keeping SKS's premiership) alive?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,039
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    Amnesia is highly contagious in political circles.

    Patient Zero has been identified as Nicola Sturgeon.
    Only three weeks until a certain Mr Murrell appears in court.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0px25y2jxo
    I;m on holiday then.

    FYI - OGH was on holiday when Nicola Sturgeon was arrested.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,717
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Any idea why the Greens are strongish favourites? They’d be my preferred choice but it’d be interesting to know if there’s data behind it.

    I had Greens to win this from the start. Reasons include:
    1) Simple psephology. Greens are snapping at Labour's heels nationally.
    2) This won't be distributed evenly. Some seats will be greener than others. My view is that seats with a lot of young voters will be greener, if for no other reason than tuition fees. More so where there are a lot of students or recent graduates. Even more so where those recent graduates aren't the obvious winners of the process.
    3) Following the example of Caerphilly, there will be a coalescence of left wing votes around whichever non-Labour party is best placed to beat Reform.
    4) The Muslim bloc isn't voting Labour in a by-election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,686
    StillWaters said:

    FPT

    Jim_Miller said:

    For rcs1000: "Meetings of the president with the full cabinet tend to get a pretty bad press. Many who have attended them describe them as boring and a waste of time. Indeed, some presidents have held very few. Most presidents have held cabinet meetings only about once a month. Clinton managed only 2 or 3 a year, while at the other extreme both Carter and Reagan held 36 meetings in their first year in office. The number of meetings tends to decline as the administration wears on."
    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    So, the short answer for how often the US Cabinet meets is: "It depends/"

    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    On the general question of Biden's disability: From what I can tell, he often had periods of lucidity, but would fade out from time to time, especially when he was tired.

    (One thing that kept me from paying as much attention to it as I should have, is his stuttering problem. He overcame it mostly, but even when he was much younger, he had periods in which he had trouble speaking clearly.)

    Isn’t that because in the UK the Cabinet is a sub-committee of the Privy Council so members are collectively responsible. In the US each Secretary has independent executive authority sub directly to the President. So the US Cabinet is just a means to update colleagues while - in theory - the UK Cabinet is a decision making body
    That’s a good way of putting it.

    Same title for the meeting, quite different contitutional roles. The US version is more like a company management meeting for HoDs with the CEO in charge, the British version more like a board meeting with a Chairman and members.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,971
    StillWaters said:

    FPT

    Jim_Miller said:

    For rcs1000: "Meetings of the president with the full cabinet tend to get a pretty bad press. Many who have attended them describe them as boring and a waste of time. Indeed, some presidents have held very few. Most presidents have held cabinet meetings only about once a month. Clinton managed only 2 or 3 a year, while at the other extreme both Carter and Reagan held 36 meetings in their first year in office. The number of meetings tends to decline as the administration wears on."
    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    So, the short answer for how often the US Cabinet meets is: "It depends/"

    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    On the general question of Biden's disability: From what I can tell, he often had periods of lucidity, but would fade out from time to time, especially when he was tired.

    (One thing that kept me from paying as much attention to it as I should have, is his stuttering problem. He overcame it mostly, but even when he was much younger, he had periods in which he had trouble speaking clearly.)

    Isn’t that because in the UK the Cabinet is a sub-committee of the Privy Council so members are collectively responsible. In the US each Secretary has independent executive authority sub directly to the President. So the US Cabinet is just a means to update colleagues while - in theory - the UK Cabinet is a decision making body
    Yes, just because the US Cabinet rarely meets in full doesn't mean that the individual cabinet members don't meet with Trump fairly often. They know what he is like and his mental state.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,447
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    I suspect the Greens "tax the rich" policy goes down well on the doorsteps there.

    With the Workers Party not standing, and Advance UK choosing a candidate who beat Reform (as an Independent) in the 2024 GM Mayoral race, and Burnham out helping the Lab candidate the momentum has shifted left.

    I think Greens are too short and have had a nibble on Lab Hold, so green on Green and Red now.

    If Reform come third then the national narrative may change.
    I don't see Reform coming third, reform have the right wing tending voters (36% or so) - which is why you don't want the left wing vote split.

    Hopefully some campaign leaflet and a actual valid poll will tell left wing voters the correct way to put their anti-reform vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,039
    Morris_Dancer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.

    You can tell I wrote this on my Ipad.

    Bloody autocorrect.
    Mr. Eagles, is this an AI pretending to be you? Surely the real TSE would never blaspheme against the holy icons of Apple?
    Autocorrect isn't limited to Apple.

    Predictive text and autocorrect have plagued me since 1996 when I had my first mobile.

    I was once arrested by the police over a disastrous predictive text fail to my then girlfriend, the text read 'I cannot wait to see you and kick your puppy'
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,558
    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Nah he’s going to refurbish it in gold leaf (skimmed) and have his name threaded through the walls so it’s hard to just take it off
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,041
    edited 8:47AM
    StillWaters said:

    FPT

    Jim_Miller said:

    For rcs1000: "Meetings of the president with the full cabinet tend to get a pretty bad press. Many who have attended them describe them as boring and a waste of time. Indeed, some presidents have held very few. Most presidents have held cabinet meetings only about once a month. Clinton managed only 2 or 3 a year, while at the other extreme both Carter and Reagan held 36 meetings in their first year in office. The number of meetings tends to decline as the administration wears on."
    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    So, the short answer for how often the US Cabinet meets is: "It depends/"

    https://quizlet.com/gb/12658529/the-presidency-the-cabinet-flash-cards/

    On the general question of Biden's disability: From what I can tell, he often had periods of lucidity, but would fade out from time to time, especially when he was tired.

    (One thing that kept me from paying as much attention to it as I should have, is his stuttering problem. He overcame it mostly, but even when he was much younger, he had periods in which he had trouble speaking clearly.)

    Isn’t that because in the UK the Cabinet is a sub-committee of the Privy Council so members are collectively responsible. In the US each Secretary has independent executive authority sub directly to the President. So the US Cabinet is just a means to update colleagues while - in theory - the UK Cabinet is a decision making body
    The US Cabinet is certainly almost irrelevant these days. I remember a moderately amusing titbit from the 90s . Clinton only held two cabinet meetings in 1998, the first to deny his affair with Lewinski and the second to admit it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,558
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
    Bit fucking late.

    (And what’s the betting the money doesn’t get returned)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,445
    edited 8:47AM
    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    Amnesia is highly contagious in political circles.

    Patient Zero has been identified as Nicola Sturgeon.
    Only three weeks until a certain Mr Murrell appears in court.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0px25y2jxo
    Will Peter M. be the the last straw to be clutched by Yoons before May or will they find something else over which to whip themselves up into a synthetic outrage?
    Speaking of Petes, when will the blue tents be erected outside the no doubt several residences of Mandy?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,971
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    I suspect the Greens "tax the rich" policy goes down well on the doorsteps there.

    With the Workers Party not standing, and Advance UK choosing a candidate who beat Reform (as an Independent) in the 2024 GM Mayoral race, and Burnham out helping the Lab candidate the momentum has shifted left.

    I think Greens are too short and have had a nibble on Lab Hold, so green on Green and Red now.

    If Reform come third then the national narrative may change.
    I don't see Reform coming third, reform have the right wing tending voters (36% or so) - which is why you don't want the left wing vote split.

    Hopefully some campaign leaflet and a actual valid poll will tell left wing voters the correct way to put their anti-reform vote.
    I think that the strong local Advance UK candidate will pick up some of that vote. He did beat Reform into 4th place in the Mayoral race last year.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,466
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    I suspect the Greens "tax the rich" policy goes down well on the doorsteps there.

    With the Workers Party not standing, and Advance UK choosing a candidate who beat Reform (as an Independent) in the 2024 GM Mayoral race, and Burnham out helping the Lab candidate the momentum has shifted left.

    I think Greens are too short and have had a nibble on Lab Hold, so green on Green and Red now.

    If Reform come third then the national narrative may change.
    I don't see Reform coming third, reform have the right wing tending voters (36% or so) - which is why you don't want the left wing vote split.

    Hopefully some campaign leaflet and a actual valid poll will tell left wing voters the correct way to put their anti-reform vote.
    I think that the strong local Advance UK candidate will pick up some of that vote. He did beat Reform into 4th place in the Mayoral race last year.
    Is that the Tommy Robinson outfit?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,146
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
    It's another example of Everything Trump Touches Dies

    The only people that haven't figured it out yet are the GOP
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,164
    Scott_xP said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
    It's another example of Everything Trump Touches Dies

    The only people that haven't figured it out yet are the GOP
    .... Betting on 60 Democrat Senators?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,685
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cookie said:

    @TSE - Typo: Gorton, not Gordon.

    You can tell I wrote this on my Ipad.

    Bloody autocorrect.
    I have had autocorrect change Gorton to Girton and vice versa. The thing is a menace.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,164
    StillWaters said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Nah he’s going to refurbish it in gold leaf (skimmed) and have his name threaded through the walls so it’s hard to just take it off
    Yeah... it will, appropriately enough, look like a cheap brothel- the tastes of the Vulgarian-in-chief are not sophisticated.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567
    StillWaters said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
    Bit fucking late.

    (And what’s the betting the money doesn’t get returned)
    It will be resting in his account. Along with the proceeds of that Venezuelan oil.

    I so hope the next incoming administrtion strip the Trump Family of everything, as proceeds of crime...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,449
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    Amnesia is highly contagious in political circles.

    Patient Zero has been identified as Nicola Sturgeon.
    Only three weeks until a certain Mr Murrell appears in court.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0px25y2jxo
    Will Peter M. be the the last straw to be clutched by Yoons before May or will they find something else over which to whip themselves up into a synthetic outrage?
    Speaking of Petes, when will the blue tents be erected outside the no doubt several residences of Mandy?
    No, QEUH will still be around. Sarwar and BBC Scotland are working out when to put additional poison laced water into the hospital system as we speak.
  • partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 416
    Ratters said:

    The combined Reform-Tory vote here at the last election was 24%.

    The combined Labour-Green vote was 63%.

    The Greens were only 1% behind Reform.

    Seems to be fairly logical that one of Green or Labour should win here. Even if their vote is split and Reform consolidate all the right-wing vote, one of the left-leaning parties would win.

    I suspect voters will take the opportunity to give Labour a bit of a kicking and the Greens win.

    This is too simplistic. Reform voters cannot be placed in a pool with the Conservatives. Look at Skelmersdale in last year's county council elections. Conservative and right of centre vote in Skelmersdale was only 10% previously, yet Reform swept the board. Turnout was similar to previous. These were Labour voters switching en masse to Reform.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,013
    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    ......and everyone likes a female plumber
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,567
    Scott_xP said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
    It's another example of Everything Trump Touches Dies

    The only people that haven't figured it out yet are the GOP
    That said, the Dems are still searching for the defibrilator...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,562
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When you are grubbing around for votes in the NOTA pond, then the Greens are the new Shiny Thing. Despite being around for ever (like Farage). I do wonder if there might be some Reform to Green movement cuz New Shiny Thing.

    Movng across the political spectrum probably doesn't bother these voters. They just like the buggeration factor. In a by-election, even more so.

    I suspect the Greens "tax the rich" policy goes down well on the doorsteps there.

    With the Workers Party not standing, and Advance UK choosing a candidate who beat Reform (as an Independent) in the 2024 GM Mayoral race, and Burnham out helping the Lab candidate the momentum has shifted left.

    I think Greens are too short and have had a nibble on Lab Hold, so green on Green and Red now.

    If Reform come third then the national narrative may change.
    Doesn't the vote tend to coalesce in by elections? For a Green-Lab one-two in this seat, it really needs Labour to go full-on attack mode on the Greens. Is that happening?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,872
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Since everybody due to play at the Kennedy Center has cancelled, the Mad King has decided to close it for two years

    @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social‬

    Unreal. He’s shutting down the Kennedy Center, after his flunkies caused mass defections of artists?

    Everything the man touches turns to ash. Our cultural heritage; destroyed. Our national treasures; plundered.

    https://bsky.app/profile/reichlinmelnick.bsky.social/post/3mdtifex7sc2e

    Perhaps after two years, he will have turned it into a ballroom?

    The one at the White House seems to be mired in problems. The National Trust for Historic Preservation sued in December 2025 to halt the project, arguing that the East Wing's demolition and the new construction lacked required federal reviews and Congressional approval.
    Someone somewhere is distracting the mad king with construction projects and that person is performing an untold service to humankind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,686
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    And did Mandelson engineer the removal of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary in a struggle for control of UK/US relations?

    Memo to Kemi for PMQs – ask one question at a time, not your usual habit of stuffing every passing thought into the same rambling question that Keir Starmer can effortlessly parry.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,039
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    And did Mandelson engineer the removal of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary in a struggle for control of UK/US relations?

    Memo to Kemi for PMQs – ask one question at a time, not your usual habit of stuffing every passing thought into the same rambling question that Keir Starmer can effortlessly parry.
    I thought it was more David Lammy wanted a job with less foreign travel.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,447
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    And did Mandelson engineer the removal of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary in a struggle for control of UK/US relations?

    Memo to Kemi for PMQs – ask one question at a time, not your usual habit of stuffing every passing thought into the same rambling question that Keir Starmer can effortlessly parry.
    SKS is a lawyer - keep questions unambiguous so he can't avoid answering the question?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    And did Mandelson engineer the removal of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary in a struggle for control of UK/US relations?

    Memo to Kemi for PMQs – ask one question at a time, not your usual habit of stuffing every passing thought into the same rambling question that Keir Starmer can effortlessly parry.
    I thought it was more David Lammy wanted a job with less foreign travel.
    Other way round, iirc – Lammy wanted ‘never here Keir’ Starmer to stay at home for more than three days at a time and leave the first class flights and nine-course banquets to the Foreign Secretary.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,658
    An argument in favour of prohibiting polls too soon before an election?

    Good morning, everyone.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    eek said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    And did Mandelson engineer the removal of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary in a struggle for control of UK/US relations?

    Memo to Kemi for PMQs – ask one question at a time, not your usual habit of stuffing every passing thought into the same rambling question that Keir Starmer can effortlessly parry.
    SKS is a lawyer - keep questions unambiguous so he can't avoid answering the question?
    More that if, as is her wont, Kemi combines three or four questions into one, the Prime Minister can simply bat away the easiest part and ignore the rest.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,962
    AnneJGP said:

    An argument in favour of prohibiting polls too soon before an election?

    Good morning, everyone.

    More a reminder to punters and pundits not to place too much stress on polls taken before candidates are picked, especially in this case where high-profile names were being floated – Burnham, Zack, Galloway and Matt Goodwin.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,576
    AnneJGP said:

    An argument in favour of prohibiting polls too soon before an election?

    Good morning, everyone.

    And Good Morning to you, and indeed everyone else.

    IIRC some countries do ban them two three or four days before elections. Think France do, but not sure.
    Is it a good idea? Again not sure.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,242
    Mandelson was in the habit of forwarding emails from people like Jeremy Heywood to Epstein.

    https://x.com/danneidle/status/2018250218655851006
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,013
    Going into an election that is meaningless is like being asked to scrawl your opinion on a notice board........

    In Gorton and Denton this would be .........

    'Starmer NO! Get your head out of Trumps arse' ........ ' Goodwin-You f..cking loathsome racist pillock go find a seat on the east coast' ............'What parliament needs are young female plumbers and plasterers who'll call the murder of 72,166 people a genocide whoever the hell it offends!. Great choice Zack!'
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,041
    AnneJGP said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    Starmer suggesting Andrew Windsor should answer questions in the USA also makes it an obvious question to ask regarding whether he takes that view of Lord Mandelson.
    I thought it was disgraceful that a Prime Minister should chip in with his views like that.
    True although in terms of disgraceful things that the Two-Tier, Free Gear former Corbynite has done, it ranks as about #1,395.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,445
    Fairliered said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Sandpit said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    Amnesia is highly contagious in political circles.

    Patient Zero has been identified as Nicola Sturgeon.
    Only three weeks until a certain Mr Murrell appears in court.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0px25y2jxo
    Will Peter M. be the the last straw to be clutched by Yoons before May or will they find something else over which to whip themselves up into a synthetic outrage?
    Speaking of Petes, when will the blue tents be erected outside the no doubt several residences of Mandy?
    No, QEUH will still be around. Sarwar and BBC Scotland are working out when to put additional poison laced water into the hospital system as we speak.
    I don't know why Sarwar doesn't push the positive stuff more, like the influence he has with HMG.


  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,368
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    And did Mandelson engineer the removal of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary in a struggle for control of UK/US relations?

    Memo to Kemi for PMQs – ask one question at a time, not your usual habit of stuffing every passing thought into the same rambling question that Keir Starmer can effortlessly parry.
    I thought it was more David Lammy wanted a job with less foreign travel.
    He's a Spurs fan, so I'd have thought he'd want to be out of the country as much as possible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,039
    edited 10:02AM
    Newcastle United players displaying all the class I would expect from them.

    Watch: Newcastle mascot abandoned by players before Liverpool defeat

    Club say they were unaware of the incident but pledge to make amends with the young supporter

    Newcastle United will reach out to the family of a mascot who was left standing alone on the pitch at Anfield after she had been ignored by the club’s players before kick-off.

    Telegraph Sport contacted senior figures at the club after a video circulated on social media of the young girl looking lost and confused before Newcastle’s 4-1 defeat by Liverpool on Saturday evening.

    Club officials were not aware of the incident but have pledged to look into what happened and to put things right for the young supporter.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/02/01/watch-newcastle-mascot-abandoned-by-players-liverpool/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,857
    Fairliered said:

    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Ratters said:

    The combined Reform-Tory vote here at the last election was 24%.

    The combined Labour-Green vote was 63%.

    The Greens were only 1% behind Reform.

    Seems to be fairly logical that one of Green or Labour should win here. Even if their vote is split and Reform consolidate all the right-wing vote, one of the left-leaning parties would win.

    I suspect voters will take the opportunity to give Labour a bit of a kicking and the Greens win.

    This is too simplistic. Reform voters cannot be placed in a pool with the Conservatives. Look at Skelmersdale in last year's county council elections. Conservative and right of centre vote in Skelmersdale was only 10% previously, yet Reform swept the board. Turnout was similar to previous. These were Labour voters switching en masse to Reform.
    Reform are the beneficiaries of failure to level up. The more unequal the north south divide becomes, the better for Reform. You would think someone in Labour or the Tories would understand this, but as long as they continue to think that London and the South East are the centre of the universe, they will continue to fail.
    Levelling up to what though ?

    Are the voters of Skelmersdale yearning to become Basildon or to become Alderley Edge ?

    For years we were told that Germany had done a great job in levelling up the old East.

    Then last year the East voted for the neo Nazi party:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_German_federal_election#/media/File:2025_German_federal_election.svg

    If people want some levelling up its not to be levelled up to some realistic reality but to some fantasy.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,368
    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,578
    I suspect the Find out Now poll is not far from the truth. The Greens are overhyped for Gorton and Denton which is not inner city Manchester, voted 50% Leave and is majority working class.

    A Labour v Reform battle is likely and Labour have sensibly picked a local councillor and got Burnham back campaigning for them and will see tactical votes to beat Goodwin. Reform meanwhile will have Advance taking some of their votes, though Goodwin has been endorsed by Tommy Robinson
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,658
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Newcastle United players displaying all the class I would expect from them.

    Watch: Newcastle mascot abandoned by players before Liverpool defeat

    Club say they were unaware of the incident but pledge to make amends with the young supporter

    Newcastle United will reach out to the family of a mascot who was left standing alone on the pitch at Anfield after she had been ignored by the club’s players before kick-off.

    Telegraph Sport contacted senior figures at the club after a video circulated on social media of the young girl looking lost and confused before Newcastle’s 4-1 defeat by Liverpool on Saturday evening.

    Club officials were not aware of the incident but have pledged to look into what happened and to put things right for the young supporter.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/02/01/watch-newcastle-mascot-abandoned-by-players-liverpool/

    Some things can't be put right. It happened, she'll never forget it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    Iranians fear fast-track execution for thousands of jailed protesters
    https://www.thetimes.com/article/0d598ae3-6b10-4163-a9db-4050d4bf876a?shareToken=224be66751373ce5cfe4aa78fff483c1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    U.S. tells Iran it is ready to meet and negotiate a deal
    https://www.axios.com/2026/02/01/us-iran-deal-talks-trump
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,735
    IanB2 said:

    Mandleson's striking amnesia would have made him a shoo-in to be a witness at the Subpostmasters' inquiry

    I think he has had lessons from Nicola "I'm sorry I don't recall" Sturgeon.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,520
    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

  • TazTaz Posts: 24,420
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Newcastle United players displaying all the class I would expect from them.

    Watch: Newcastle mascot abandoned by players before Liverpool defeat

    Club say they were unaware of the incident but pledge to make amends with the young supporter

    Newcastle United will reach out to the family of a mascot who was left standing alone on the pitch at Anfield after she had been ignored by the club’s players before kick-off.

    Telegraph Sport contacted senior figures at the club after a video circulated on social media of the young girl looking lost and confused before Newcastle’s 4-1 defeat by Liverpool on Saturday evening.

    Club officials were not aware of the incident but have pledged to look into what happened and to put things right for the young supporter.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/02/01/watch-newcastle-mascot-abandoned-by-players-liverpool/

    Compare the entitled Geordies how they treat a mascot to how Sunderland, their near neighbours, how they treated little Bradley Lowery.

    I guess that’s Saudi money for you.

    Nice to see Villa lose too.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,386
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Newcastle United players displaying all the class I would expect from them.

    Watch: Newcastle mascot abandoned by players before Liverpool defeat

    Club say they were unaware of the incident but pledge to make amends with the young supporter

    Newcastle United will reach out to the family of a mascot who was left standing alone on the pitch at Anfield after she had been ignored by the club’s players before kick-off.

    Telegraph Sport contacted senior figures at the club after a video circulated on social media of the young girl looking lost and confused before Newcastle’s 4-1 defeat by Liverpool on Saturday evening.

    Club officials were not aware of the incident but have pledged to look into what happened and to put things right for the young supporter.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/02/01/watch-newcastle-mascot-abandoned-by-players-liverpool/

    AFAIK you pay/parents pay for the child to be the mascot. Bad slip up by someone on the marketing side wrt the optics. Labour looking to hire them as they would be an improvement on current team.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,420
    another_richard said:

    Fairliered said:

    partypoliticalorphan said:

    Ratters said:

    The combined Reform-Tory vote here at the last election was 24%.

    The combined Labour-Green vote was 63%.

    The Greens were only 1% behind Reform.

    Seems to be fairly logical that one of Green or Labour should win here. Even if their vote is split and Reform consolidate all the right-wing vote, one of the left-leaning parties would win.

    I suspect voters will take the opportunity to give Labour a bit of a kicking and the Greens win.

    This is too simplistic. Reform voters cannot be placed in a pool with the Conservatives. Look at Skelmersdale in last year's county council elections. Conservative and right of centre vote in Skelmersdale was only 10% previously, yet Reform swept the board. Turnout was similar to previous. These were Labour voters switching en masse to Reform.
    Reform are the beneficiaries of failure to level up. The more unequal the north south divide becomes, the better for Reform. You would think someone in Labour or the Tories would understand this, but as long as they continue to think that London and the South East are the centre of the universe, they will continue to fail.
    Levelling up to what though ?

    Are the voters of Skelmersdale yearning to become Basildon or to become Alderley Edge ?

    .
    Here’s a thought.

    Speak to them, engage with them and ask the community what they want to see for their area.

    Novel idea. Never take off.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,894
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect the Find out Now poll is not far from the truth. The Greens are overhyped for Gorton and Denton which is not inner city Manchester, voted 50% Leave and is majority working class.

    A Labour v Reform battle is likely and Labour have sensibly picked a local councillor and got Burnham back campaigning for them and will see tactical votes to beat Goodwin. Reform meanwhile will have Advance taking some of their votes, though Goodwin has been endorsed by Tommy Robinson

    I suppose both Labour and Reform want a Labour vs Reform framing whereas the Greens want a Greens vs Reform framing. The first is supported by that 'poll'. The second by the betting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,686
    edited 10:17AM
    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.

    If the PM wants to try and get ahead of the story, he needs to straight up admit it was his mistake, and/or that Mandelson lied to him, and offer an unequivocal apology.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,714
    boulay said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    Starmer suggesting Andrew Windsor should answer questions in the USA also makes it an obvious question to ask regarding whether he takes that view of Lord Mandelson.
    I think the UK should set up an investigation too on the basis of clear evidence of involvement of UK nationals, the international nature of potential trafficking of victims and the potential for manipulation and abuse of global finance.

    We can then request high profile US nationals mentioned in the files to come and give testimony. People like Trump, Dershowitz, etc. I am certain the US authorities and those individuals will happily come over and testify under oath unlike our cowardly bastards Mountbatten-Windsor and Mandelson.
    If nothing else, if we held some investigations it would give the victims an opportunity to raise their complaints in a forum that will treat them more seriously than Congress. Perhaps the next time Starmer meets or speaks to Trump he should mention that he's thinking of launching an Epstein inquiry here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    A minority of the people named in the Epstein files come out of it pretty well.

    For example:
    Harvard professor Robert Trivers tried to get Jeffrey Epstein in touch with Norman Finkelstein. Instead of accepting, Norman sent a reply calling Alan Dershowitz a pedophile rapist and saying Trivers should be ashamed for defending them, and both should be strangled instead.
    https://x.com/zei_squirrel/status/2018074557555388496
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.
    The revelation that Mandelson was forwarding other people’s emails from within government to Epstein is pretty startling.

    The one on government borrowing looks like a straight up leak of confidential information. If I forwarded anything like that from a bank, it would be gross misconduct and I would be investigated by the regulators, if caught.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,983
    Physicist Ivette Fuentes was one of those who said no, as per a report from 2017 (link below):

    "Fuentes says, she and Penrose had a conversation. "Would I be interested in receiving funding from a wealthy man who had also been convicted of a sex offense?" Fuentes recalls Penrose asking her.

    Fuentes immediately said no, citing ethical objections, and quickly forgot about the conversation. But 2 months ago, after reading that Epstein had been arrested, she called Penrose. "Was it Epstein?" she asked him. "And he said, ‘Yes, I think it was.' And I said, ‘Oh God.'"
    ....
    "The dream of my life is to build a gravitational-wave detector, and have it work," she says. "So, if someone were to say to me, ‘I'll give you the money to make your dream come true,' it would be very tempting to say yes."

    "But then you have your ethical standards. Even if you lose some opportunities, [saying no] is the right thing to do. … What Epstein has taught me is how important it is to do that."
    https://x.com/Kaju_Nut/status/2018073247250862366
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,686
    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.
    The revelation that Mandelson was forwarding other people’s emails from within government to Epstein is pretty startling.

    The one on government borrowing looks like a straight up leak of confidential information. If I forwarded anything like that from a bank, it would be gross misconduct and I would be investigated by the regulators, if caught.
    Yes, some of them look like the divulgence of privileged information at best, and official secrets at worst.

    As others have observed, the way this story is running in the US and UK are very different. The whole American Establishment is scared witless, while also too partisan to want to push the door open any wider for fear of what else might come out.

    So we see Mandelson and Andrew leading the news in the US, yet the vast majority of those mentioned in the files are Americans.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,468
    eek said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:



    The overnight move by the Greens does suggest new information is in play.

    Isn't the new information the lack of candidates from Galloway's lot and YourParty?

    How far those votes just fold into the Green column is another question, but it's surely a net gain for them.
    More likely the new information is Mandelsongate being predicted to hurt Labour.
    It’s certainly not going to look good for Starmer, who personally appointed him to the US Ambassador role. Did he not even ask the question about his relationship to Epstein?
    And did Mandelson engineer the removal of David Lammy as Foreign Secretary in a struggle for control of UK/US relations?

    Memo to Kemi for PMQs – ask one question at a time, not your usual habit of stuffing every passing thought into the same rambling question that Keir Starmer can effortlessly parry.
    SKS is a lawyer - keep questions unambiguous so he can't avoid answering the question?
    There was a good example of that tripping him up recently. I can't remember the exact question, but it was about the budget. Kemi asked him in the summer "Would he commit to XYZ?" and he just stood up, said "Yes", and sat back down for the win. A couple of months later she asked the same question, word for word, and he stood up and waffled, obliquely admitting that he couldn't keep his earlier pledge
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,415
    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.
    The revelation that Mandelson was forwarding other people’s emails from within government to Epstein is pretty startling.

    The one on government borrowing looks like a straight up leak of confidential information. If I forwarded anything like that from a bank, it would be gross misconduct and I would be investigated by the regulators, if caught.
    Yes, some of them look like the divulgence of privileged information at best, and official secrets at worst.

    As others have observed, the way this story is running in the US and UK are very different. The whole American Establishment is scared witless, while also too partisan to want to push the door open any wider for fear of what else might come out.

    So we see Mandelson and Andrew leading the news in the US, yet the vast majority of those mentioned in the files are Americans.
    That’s because Epstein cultivated the whole American establishment - see the emails from various scientists, lawyers, journalists etc.

    By contrast, he cultivated a handful of U.K. figures.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,468
    Taz said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Newcastle United players displaying all the class I would expect from them.

    Watch: Newcastle mascot abandoned by players before Liverpool defeat

    Club say they were unaware of the incident but pledge to make amends with the young supporter

    Newcastle United will reach out to the family of a mascot who was left standing alone on the pitch at Anfield after she had been ignored by the club’s players before kick-off.

    Telegraph Sport contacted senior figures at the club after a video circulated on social media of the young girl looking lost and confused before Newcastle’s 4-1 defeat by Liverpool on Saturday evening.

    Club officials were not aware of the incident but have pledged to look into what happened and to put things right for the young supporter.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2026/02/01/watch-newcastle-mascot-abandoned-by-players-liverpool/

    Compare the entitled Geordies how they treat a mascot to how Sunderland, their near neighbours, how they treated little Bradley Lowery.

    I guess that’s Saudi money for you.

    Nice to see Villa lose too.
    Villa were massively outperforming xG, and now they've regressed to the mean. Backing them while every shot they had was going in while none of those they faced did was like buying into a bubble
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,013
    Cookie said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Any idea why the Greens are strongish favourites? They’d be my preferred choice but it’d be interesting to know if there’s data behind it.

    I had Greens to win this from the start. Reasons include:
    1) Simple psephology. Greens are snapping at Labour's heels nationally.
    2) This won't be distributed evenly. Some seats will be greener than others. My view is that seats with a lot of young voters will be greener, if for no other reason than tuition fees. More so where there are a lot of students or recent graduates. Even more so where those recent graduates aren't the obvious winners of the process.
    3) Following the example of Caerphilly, there will be a coalescence of left wing votes around whichever non-Labour party is best placed to beat Reform.
    4) The Muslim bloc isn't voting Labour in a by-election.
    I would add; a particularly attractive Green candidate and a particularly unattractive Reform candidate
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,343
    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.
    The revelation that Mandelson was forwarding other people’s emails from within government to Epstein is pretty startling.

    The one on government borrowing looks like a straight up leak of confidential information. If I forwarded anything like that from a bank, it would be gross misconduct and I would be investigated by the regulators, if caught.
    Yes, some of them look like the divulgence of privileged information at best, and official secrets at worst.

    As others have observed, the way this story is running in the US and UK are very different. The whole American Establishment is scared witless, while also too partisan to want to push the door open any wider for fear of what else might come out.

    So we see Mandelson and Andrew leading the news in the US, yet the vast majority of those mentioned in the files are Americans.
    That’s because Epstein cultivated the whole American establishment - see the emails from various scientists, lawyers, journalists etc.

    By contrast, he cultivated a handful of U.K. figures.
    One has to wonder who was assigned to cover the UK.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,164
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.

    If the PM wants to try and get ahead of the story, he needs to straight up admit it was his mistake, and/or that Mandelson lied to him, and offer an unequivocal apology.
    As most people who have ever met Mandelson know, he is a straight forward shit. Indeed a friend who was a senior figure in the broadcast media when Mandelson was beginning his rise to New Labour fame, and despite his own pro-Labour views, described PM as "genuinely the most evil" politician he had ever dealt with.

    The comments here, at the time of his appointment were pretty clear eyed that he was a devious and untrustworthy shit- at best. If the flotsam and jetsam of PB knew that PM was a wrong 'un, then the idea that Starmer did not is simply for the birds. he took the risk, knowing it was a risk, and perhaps reassured by some bromides from the Dark Lord, that he could be effective in using his back channels with the TrumpScum. Well, as they say, that has not gone well.

    We can only hope that this greedy. unscrupulous, sinister, vain and -yes- evil man has finally been expelled from the British body politic, The doors should not just be closed behind him, but slammed.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,686
    edited 10:44AM
    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.
    The revelation that Mandelson was forwarding other people’s emails from within government to Epstein is pretty startling.

    The one on government borrowing looks like a straight up leak of confidential information. If I forwarded anything like that from a bank, it would be gross misconduct and I would be investigated by the regulators, if caught.
    Yes, some of them look like the divulgence of privileged information at best, and official secrets at worst.

    As others have observed, the way this story is running in the US and UK are very different. The whole American Establishment is scared witless, while also too partisan to want to push the door open any wider for fear of what else might come out.

    So we see Mandelson and Andrew leading the news in the US, yet the vast majority of those mentioned in the files are Americans.
    That’s because Epstein cultivated the whole American establishment - see the emails from various scientists, lawyers, journalists etc.

    By contrast, he cultivated a handful of U.K. figures.
    Yes I think it goes much deeper into US high society, irrespective of business or politics.

    Epstein’s island appears to have been a combination of Eyes Wide Shut and a P. Diddy party.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,519
    Cicero said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Starmer should consider trying to get ahead of the game, and PMQs, on Mandelson. I'd advise him to issue a very public apology. Something like:
    With the benefit of hindsight, I recognise that it was a huge mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador, and that due diligence on the appointment was inadequate, for which I accept full responsibility. I apologise unreservedly for the error.
    Better late than never.

    For the proper unqualified article the first five words need to be left out. 'Hindsight' means it wasn't a mistake at the time, so it isn't a real apology. And a later bit amended to "I made a huge mistake". Use of 'it was' or the passive - a great favourite - render an apology half hearted.

    It should have been blindingly obvious to the PM at the time, that Mandelson was a bad appointment which was likely to backfire at some point.

    One might understand the need for someone who can communicate effectively with what’s clearly a difficult US administration, but it’s also one of the top jobs in the Foreign Office and I’m sure they could have found a better candidate from somewhere.

    If the PM wants to try and get ahead of the story, he needs to straight up admit it was his mistake, and/or that Mandelson lied to him, and offer an unequivocal apology.
    As most people who have ever met Mandelson know, he is a straight forward shit. Indeed a friend who was a senior figure in the broadcast media when Mandelson was beginning his rise to New Labour fame, and despite his own pro-Labour views, described PM as "genuinely the most evil" politician he had ever dealt with.

    The comments here, at the time of his appointment were pretty clear eyed that he was a devious and untrustworthy shit- at best. If the flotsam and jetsam of PB knew that PM was a wrong 'un, then the idea that Starmer did not is simply for the birds. he took the risk, knowing it was a risk, and perhaps reassured by some bromides from the Dark Lord, that he could be effective in using his back channels with the TrumpScum. Well, as they say, that has not gone well.

    We can only hope that this greedy. unscrupulous, sinister, vain and -yes- evil man has finally been expelled from the British body politic, The doors should not just be closed behind him, but slammed.

    My conclusion, after a number of decades experience, is that if someone looks dodgy, or incapable, or naive, or narcissistic, is that they almost certainly are. Taking people at face value usually is the best course.

    And pay attention to what they ACTUALLY say. Don't be too clever about it. Don't interpret.
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