What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
Oh I dunno. All those pardons he's been selling. Maybe he has a pile of cash he wants to invest in the stock market, but he figures he'll create a dip to buy into.
It is not the driver avoiding prison that interests me but that a death in 2022 has taken more than three years to reach court.
The appreciation from the University of York is inspiring:- He left school at 17 without any A-levels and worked as a professional fisherman, eventually owning his own boat.
The money he earnt from fishing funded his passion for travel. It was while travelling that he became curious about living systems in the natural world, particularly in the marine environment. This inspired him to write a letter to Portsmouth Polytechnic at the age of 26 and convinced them to offer him a place to study Biological Science. He had not studied biology since the age of 13 and initially struggled but he persevered and graduated with a First-class degree.
In 1987 Simon was offered a PhD position at Pennsylvania State University under the supervision of Professor Daniel Cosgrove, publishing 5 ground-breaking papers based on his discovery of plant cell wall modifying proteins called expansins.
In 1994, after a short period as a postdoc at Penn State, Simon’s career at the University of York began. His pioneering work on plant cell walls formed the basis of a prestigious Royal Society Fellowship. Simon was subsequently appointed to a CNAP Chair in Materials Biology in 2001. His knowledge of plant cell walls laid an excellent foundation to developing innovative technologies for unlocking the sugars from the matrix polysaccharides in plant cell walls for the production of biofuels and chemicals, and recently, the production of sustainable textiles.
His excuse for the hit and run is such obvious bollocks. Blamed the guy for cycling "too fast", but also thought he'd hit a tree - which you'd assume was stationary unless it Treebeard. 400 miles on a failed MOT too. This stuff is infuriating - though to be fair he did get a 3-year driving ban, which is (remarkably) the same as the Liverpool lunatic who ran down hundreds of people deliberately.
On the Liverpool guy - given he seemed to be "a font of misplaced rage"*, how is he ever going to be safe on the road, shot of a head shrinking miracle?
*Bit telling he got kicked out of the Marines for fighting.
Well quite. If that doesn't warrant a life ban, nothing will. It's a bizarre tolerance for behaviour that wouldn't be acceptable in any other circumstance other than driving, and puts his interests far above all those who also use the roads.
The funny bit is that, on release (if ever), as an ex-violent offender, he will be virtually uninsurable. Which is an interesting issue for criminal re-habilitation.
I asked someone who wrks with ex-prisoners and he told me that either they don't drive because f the insurance thing (and often can't get work as a result), but mostly they drive uninsured.
What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
My guess would be a bit of a yawn. With the decision of the SC now seriously overdue we might just be reaching the end of this idiocy. I think most will calculate that this will never come into effect one way or another.
BREAKING: Tory MP Andrew Rosindell defects to Reform.
How many more to come? Has to be a market on it, I'm guessing no more than 5, until/if we get to a final Tory collapse (if they get to the point of wanting to cut a deal, then dozens may go).
What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
Normally when US markets fall European markets catch the panic and fall too. And maybe European markets will be a bit spooked by the potential for conflict over Greenland.
But one day weakness in the US markets might be seen as a good thing for Europe, and that would be an interesting change.
BREAKING: Tory MP Andrew Rosindell defects to Reform.
How many more to come? Has to be a market on it, I'm guessing no more than 5, until/if we get to a final Tory collapse (if they get to the point of wanting to cut a deal, then dozens may go).
Why have they all waited until January - were they trying to influence the 2025 PB Competition outcome?
Bessent on Greenland: "Peace through strength. Make it part of the US and there will not be a conflict because the US right now, we're the hottest country in the world, we're the strongest country in the world. Europeans project weakness. The US projects strength."
When Europe cuts welfare to fund strategic security it will start to project strength.
This is a weird meme because, as a percentage of GDP and including social security contributions, the United States is the biggest spender on welfare in the world - 7ppts higher than the UK. Even if you restrict it to pure, direct government expenditure (which isn't a fair comparison because of the complexities of public/private systems across countries), the US isn't far behind the UK (20% v 23%).
Any time someone suggests reducing welfare you can expect someone else to say "country X is spending more on welfare therefore it shouldn't be reduced in this country".
Might I point out that the USA's deficit and debt is even worse than that of the UK.
I didn't say that. I'm just calling out the MAGA talking point which is, as ever, based on a falsehood. The Americans are welfare junkies like the rest of us - and they don't get anywhere near the value that the Nordics do (the happiest countries in the world).
The Poles spend a larger proportion on defence than we do - and are applauded for it - but their welfare spending is even higher. The same goes for Finland, the largest standing reserve and artillery in Europe. The Danes spend more than we do on defence as well. We shouldn't be bullied into copying an American system of governance which is demonstrably shite at all levels and in all aspects, particularly when these excellent alternatives exist.
It all has to add up to 100% at the end.
So if you want to increase the proportion spent on X then the proportion spent on other things will have to fall.
And if you want to significantly and/or quickly increase the amount spent on X then the amount spent on other things will have to fall in actual terms.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Define "damage to the housing market".
See the recent article in the Spectator by Sean Thomas linked to yesterday. Basically, a market that was already flat at best has been swamped with a lot of high value properties resulting in collapse in values in prestigious parts of London. He said:
I accept that some deflation of the London bubble is not necessarily a bad thing but drops like this are disastrous for those affected and will imperil banking covenants for many small or medium sized businesses.
Seems like good news. I'm not seeing any damage.
For those who need to pay for the cost of properties, some of the heat of costs coming down is a good thing.
What's the damage there?
The next big fail will be in property. Especially commercial property.
Who cares you say - well, guess what the banks are up to their eyeballs in? When a few developers go down.... And construction has been in a recession, in some parts of the country, for a while.
Buyer beware. All investments can go down as well as up.
If a developer goes belly up then the land is still available and their assets can be sold to someone else, potentially for pennies on the pound. It doesn't eradicate their assets.
The problem in this country is our planning system leads to an oligopoly of only having a few developers. There's no shortage of skilled people able to work in construction - nearly 10% of the workforce does.
Liberalise planning, let any firm build instead of only those with consent and you eradicate both the value of land banks and the reason to hold them.
The problem, which governments have been terrified of, is that once the commercial property thing goes (for example), it will take a whole pile of subcontractors and suppliers with it. Along with massive losses for pension funds and other third party investors.
What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
My guess would be a bit of a yawn. With the decision of the SC now seriously overdue we might just be reaching the end of this idiocy. I think most will calculate that this will never come into effect one way or another.
They'll rule that he can not only impose tariffs but that the Founding Fathers didn't intend Congress to vote on income tax and sales tax rates as well.
There is an irony that the Tea Party has led to taxes being imposed by diktat on the American people.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Define "damage to the housing market".
See the recent article in the Spectator by Sean Thomas linked to yesterday. Basically, a market that was already flat at best has been swamped with a lot of high value properties resulting in collapse in values in prestigious parts of London. He said:
I accept that some deflation of the London bubble is not necessarily a bad thing but drops like this are disastrous for those affected and will imperil banking covenants for many small or medium sized businesses.
It's going to be like a brutal but life-saving surgery. A tracheotomy. Sorting out a burst appendix.
We just need a government to do it under full medical supervision in a sterile environment, rather than someone wielding a kitchen knife and a ballpoint pen on the side of a mountain.
What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
The market will be closed tomorrow, Martin Luther King Jr day
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Define "damage to the housing market".
See the recent article in the Spectator by Sean Thomas linked to yesterday. Basically, a market that was already flat at best has been swamped with a lot of high value properties resulting in collapse in values in prestigious parts of London. He said:
I accept that some deflation of the London bubble is not necessarily a bad thing but drops like this are disastrous for those affected and will imperil banking covenants for many small or medium sized businesses.
Seems like good news. I'm not seeing any damage.
For those who need to pay for the cost of properties, some of the heat of costs coming down is a good thing.
What's the damage there?
That’s not necessarily bad as long as there are Buyers.
Lots of people struggling to sell leasehold flats. Cutting prices still no buyers. Some estate agents won’t deal with new flats now, only older ones.
People having to discount to get sales. Estate agent valuations need to be real.
What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
Bessent on Greenland: "Peace through strength. Make it part of the US and there will not be a conflict because the US right now, we're the hottest country in the world, we're the strongest country in the world. Europeans project weakness. The US projects strength."
When Europe cuts welfare to fund strategic security it will start to project strength.
This is a weird meme because, as a percentage of GDP and including social security contributions, the United States is the biggest spender on welfare in the world - 7ppts higher than the UK. Even if you restrict it to pure, direct government expenditure (which isn't a fair comparison because of the complexities of public/private systems across countries), the US isn't far behind the UK (20% v 23%).
Any time someone suggests reducing welfare you can expect someone else to say "country X is spending more on welfare therefore it shouldn't be reduced in this country".
Might I point out that the USA's deficit and debt is even worse than that of the UK.
I didn't say that. I'm just calling out the MAGA talking point which is, as ever, based on a falsehood. The Americans are welfare junkies like the rest of us - and they don't get anywhere near the value that the Nordics do (the happiest countries in the world).
The Poles spend a larger proportion on defence than we do - and are applauded for it - but their welfare spending is even higher. The same goes for Finland, the largest standing reserve and artillery in Europe. The Danes spend more than we do on defence as well. We shouldn't be bullied into copying an American system of governance which is demonstrably shite at all levels and in all aspects, particularly when these excellent alternatives exist.
It all has to add up to 100% at the end.
So if you want to increase the proportion spent on X then the proportion spent on other things will have to fall.
And if you want to significantly and/or quickly increase the amount spent on X then the amount spent on other things will have to fall in actual terms.
You can increase taxes.
There are political choices as to how to fund increased defence spending. There is more than one option.
So nothing but words then. Trump will be shitting himself.
Ok, so if you can resist your cynicism, what would you do ( apart from donuts on a glacier). Do you think if the UK put a huge placementof Marines, paras, light infantry, guards etc in Greenland and said to the US - if you attack this is not you killing Cuban mercenaries in Venezuela but people who might have fought alongside you in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Do you think the US military would still blindly follow orders or really struggle with it?
What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
The market will be closed tomorrow, Martin Luther King Jr day
Gemini: The U.S. futures market will be open tonight, Sunday, January 18, 2026, for its standard trading session, despite the U.S. markets being closed tomorrow for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday. Futures typically trade nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week, starting Sunday evening
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Define "damage to the housing market".
See the recent article in the Spectator by Sean Thomas linked to yesterday. Basically, a market that was already flat at best has been swamped with a lot of high value properties resulting in collapse in values in prestigious parts of London. He said:
I accept that some deflation of the London bubble is not necessarily a bad thing but drops like this are disastrous for those affected and will imperil banking covenants for many small or medium sized businesses.
Seems like good news. I'm not seeing any damage.
For those who need to pay for the cost of properties, some of the heat of costs coming down is a good thing.
What's the damage there?
The next big fail will be in property. Especially commercial property.
Who cares you say - well, guess what the banks are up to their eyeballs in? When a few developers go down.... And construction has been in a recession, in some parts of the country, for a while.
Buyer beware. All investments can go down as well as up.
If a developer goes belly up then the land is still available and their assets can be sold to someone else, potentially for pennies on the pound. It doesn't eradicate their assets.
The problem in this country is our planning system leads to an oligopoly of only having a few developers. There's no shortage of skilled people able to work in construction - nearly 10% of the workforce does.
Liberalise planning, let any firm build instead of only those with consent and you eradicate both the value of land banks and the reason to hold them.
Your first sentence sums up the problem. A property should be somewhere to live not an investment.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Did you look at the X axis?
Belatedly! But my understanding is that the number of non doms has continued to fall, hence the change in government policy.
Actual data suggests the fears are overblown, revenues holding up well.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Rachel Reeves done buggered things up again, as can be clearly seen from the article's graph showing the rich fleeing Britain.
How many billions in lost VAT, Employers NI and IT for employees has this lunacy cost us? Plus the damage to the housing market, especially in London. Plus the lost investment opportunities. Just beyond stupid driven by ideology and ignorance.
Define "damage to the housing market".
See the recent article in the Spectator by Sean Thomas linked to yesterday. Basically, a market that was already flat at best has been swamped with a lot of high value properties resulting in collapse in values in prestigious parts of London. He said:
I accept that some deflation of the London bubble is not necessarily a bad thing but drops like this are disastrous for those affected and will imperil banking covenants for many small or medium sized businesses.
The Telegraph will be full of articles complaining that London homeowners will no longer be liable for a mansion tax because house prices have fallen.
Rachel Johnson will be predicting a new peasants revolt if the price of a Notting Hill semi falls below ten million.
What is the betting on the US futures market when they open in three hours time? I anticipate a sale of US Treasuries and a reluctance to buy new UST issues necessitating a rise in US interest rates and a fall in the US stock market. If the futures market also anticipates this, there could be a big correction. Trump may have bitten off more than he realised.
The market will be closed tomorrow, Martin Luther King Jr day
Gemini: The U.S. futures market will be open tonight, Sunday, January 18, 2026, for its standard trading session, despite the U.S. markets being closed tomorrow for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday. Futures typically trade nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week, starting Sunday evening
Ted Cruz: "When it comes to Greenland, I want to commend President Trump for being single-mindedly focused on America first ... I believe it is overwhelmingly in America's national interest to acquire Greenland ... the whole history of America has been a history of acquiring new lands and new territories"
It is not the driver avoiding prison that interests me but that a death in 2022 has taken more than three years to reach court.
The appreciation from the University of York is inspiring:- He left school at 17 without any A-levels and worked as a professional fisherman, eventually owning his own boat.
The money he earnt from fishing funded his passion for travel. It was while travelling that he became curious about living systems in the natural world, particularly in the marine environment. This inspired him to write a letter to Portsmouth Polytechnic at the age of 26 and convinced them to offer him a place to study Biological Science. He had not studied biology since the age of 13 and initially struggled but he persevered and graduated with a First-class degree.
In 1987 Simon was offered a PhD position at Pennsylvania State University under the supervision of Professor Daniel Cosgrove, publishing 5 ground-breaking papers based on his discovery of plant cell wall modifying proteins called expansins.
In 1994, after a short period as a postdoc at Penn State, Simon’s career at the University of York began. His pioneering work on plant cell walls formed the basis of a prestigious Royal Society Fellowship. Simon was subsequently appointed to a CNAP Chair in Materials Biology in 2001. His knowledge of plant cell walls laid an excellent foundation to developing innovative technologies for unlocking the sugars from the matrix polysaccharides in plant cell walls for the production of biofuels and chemicals, and recently, the production of sustainable textiles.
We urgently need minimum sentences for motoring offences that result in fatalities. The whole 'kill someone with a car and get away with it' nonsense is well out of hand now.
Unless there's more to it than reads, this bit here seems counter-intuitive.
Judge Melville said: “You were in the middle of your manoeuvre when [Prof McQueen-Mason] came around the corner. He couldn’t avoid you and you collided.
If you're going around a corner then you should be going at a speed in which you can stop depending upon what you see as you go around. If you can't avoid someone who is already in middle of a manoeuvre when you go around a corner, then surely you're going too fast?
As tragic as that might be.
Nearly 400 miles on a failed MOT is utterly inexcusable.
I'm assuming from the description that Land Rover guy was attempting something that required him to move rapidly toward the corner on the cyclist's side of the road. Reversing round the corner in order to turn, maybe.
It's only expected that people slow down enough to be able to stop before stationery obstructions. If said obstruction is coming at you at speed, well...
Reversing around corners is a legal manoeuvre. Indeed it was a part of my practical test.
Corners with good visibility. It's a test of reversing skill, not x-ray vision !
Ted Cruz: "When it comes to Greenland, I want to commend President Trump for being single-mindedly focused on America first ... I believe it is overwhelmingly in America's national interest to acquire Greenland ... the whole history of America has been a history of acquiring new lands and new territories"
The story is that if Americans all lost 10% of their weight, airlines would use 1.5% less fuel as a result. They don’t (yes) charge humans by their own weight and the average American is 180lb. 1.5% of the fuel bill across the major American airlines is $580m.
I have long thought that airlines should charge by combined weight of passenger and baggage.
That might be the best way of my persuading a certain someone close to me, to pack her bag sensibly for a trip.
I used to do loads of work travel when younger, so have pretty much mastered taking a large laptop cabin bag with a week’s worth of clothes in it.
Yes, on our recent tour of India I was relieved that Railway station Porters were omnipresent!
When we backpacked across SE Asia we had packs of abot 40 litres and 10kg for 3 months, but that was 35 years ago.
Indeed. The more stuff you take the more stressful the trip, and certain points like the check-in/bag-drop desks add time and uncertainty to the process.
Last summer we did Dubai>Poland>Ukraine>Poland>UK>Poland>Dubai, with a wide variety of planes, trains, and automobiles used along the way.
Couldn’t have done it hauling the 30kg bag which is Emirates usual standard allowance in economy, and is for some reason seen by some of their customers *cough* as a target rather than a limit.
The story is that if Americans all lost 10% of their weight, airlines would use 1.5% less fuel as a result. They don’t (yes) charge humans by their own weight and the average American is 180lb. 1.5% of the fuel bill across the major American airlines is $580m.
I have long thought that airlines should charge by combined weight of passenger and baggage.
That might be the best way of my persuading a certain someone close to me, to pack her bag sensibly for a trip.
I used to do loads of work travel when younger, so have pretty much mastered taking a large laptop cabin bag with a week’s worth of clothes in it.
Yes, on our recent tour of India I was relieved that Railway station Porters were omnipresent!
When we backpacked across SE Asia we had packs of abot 40 litres and 10kg for 3 months, but that was 35 years ago.
Indeed. The more stuff you take the more stressful the trip, and certain points like the check-in/bag-drop desks add time and uncertainty to the process.
Last summer we did Dubai>Poland>Ukraine>Poland>UK>Poland>Dubai, with a wide variety of planes, trains, and automobiles used along the way.
Couldn’t have done it hauling the 30kg bag which is Emirates usual standard allowance in economy, and is for some reason seen by some of their customers *cough* as a target rather than a limit.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now making an explicit link between the US desire to annex Greenland and the continuation of US support for Ukraine.
"What would happen in Ukraine if the US pulled its support out? The whole thing would collapse," Bessent told Meet The Press.
The damage these people are doing will take decades to heal. How can anyone trust the US again when it behaves like this to allies?
What if they don’t care?
That’s one disturbing rationale. What if they’ve decided that NATO can go fuck itself (ditto Ukraine), and the Europeans are a bunch of expensive effete losers determined to immigrate their nations to death - ergo they are doomed and useless allies now and forever
What if they’ve therefore decided that American isolationism is the answer - building an impregnable fortress in the wider Americas, which contains all the resources it needs and has all means to defend itself - especially if they can seize the vast mineral wealth and strategic location of Greenland
In that light the seizure of Greenland makes “sense”. They just don’t care. America must have what it needs for security and fuck Denmark (and Greenland)
If this is their thinking - rather than just a trumpian flight of lunacy - then it has an internal logic. It is also crazily risky and almost certainly a massive error - every nation, no matter how strong, must have allies and alliances
Just pointing out that it might not be pure insanity. Eg the death of NATO is possibly seen as a positive by product
Then, that would be a failure of imagination.
America has less than 5% of humanity's population, and isn't anything like as invulnerable or omnipotent as it thinks it is.
They soon will care when they realise such actions leave Americans friendless, their markets smaller, access to products reduced, and - being no longer able or trusted to shape world events - a recipient of the chaos that causes, which it will.
I wrote this a couple of weeks ago.
I think a lot of what drives the behaviour of the current US administration, a reversion to US exceptionalism and isolationism, is the slowly dawning realisation that no matter what they do China will surpass them in almost all ways this century, and soon in many areas. So the US is acting up, one last go at exerting their fading power before it becomes ineffective. They actually need more alliances, and multilateralism, to attempt to rein in China, and to a lesser extent Russia and India, but the US is trashing the prospects of that. The rest of the world, particularly the democratic bits, had better learn the lessons and act fast.
It's even more clear now that the American Century has ended. The only surprising thing is just how rapidly the end came about.
China is in just as much trouble as America and well past its demographic peak. It isn't on course to rule the world.
But, the most dangerous beast is a wounded one.
The combined population of the US, NATO/EU, Japan & South Korea is something like 900m, so if it were not for Trump there would be a great chance of the "West" enduring the period of maximum Chinese strength.
But divided we may fall.
It's going to be dammed hard, and first we need to see off Russia pdq.
Indeed, Trump is a kryptonite that could destroy the West.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now making an explicit link between the US desire to annex Greenland and the continuation of US support for Ukraine.
"What would happen in Ukraine if the US pulled its support out? The whole thing would collapse," Bessent told Meet The Press.
The damage these people are doing will take decades to heal. How can anyone trust the US again when it behaves like this to allies?
What if they don’t care?
That’s one disturbing rationale. What if they’ve decided that NATO can go fuck itself (ditto Ukraine), and the Europeans are a bunch of expensive effete losers determined to immigrate their nations to death - ergo they are doomed and useless allies now and forever
What if they’ve therefore decided that American isolationism is the answer - building an impregnable fortress in the wider Americas, which contains all the resources it needs and has all means to defend itself - especially if they can seize the vast mineral wealth and strategic location of Greenland
In that light the seizure of Greenland makes “sense”. They just don’t care. America must have what it needs for security and fuck Denmark (and Greenland)
If this is their thinking - rather than just a trumpian flight of lunacy - then it has an internal logic. It is also crazily risky and almost certainly a massive error - every nation, no matter how strong, must have allies and alliances
Just pointing out that it might not be pure insanity. Eg the death of NATO is possibly seen as a positive by product
Then, that would be a failure of imagination.
America has less than 5% of humanity's population, and isn't anything like as invulnerable or omnipotent as it thinks it is.
They soon will care when they realise such actions leave Americans friendless, their markets smaller, access to products reduced, and - being no longer able or trusted to shape world events - a recipient of the chaos that causes, which it will.
I wrote this a couple of weeks ago.
I think a lot of what drives the behaviour of the current US administration, a reversion to US exceptionalism and isolationism, is the slowly dawning realisation that no matter what they do China will surpass them in almost all ways this century, and soon in many areas. So the US is acting up, one last go at exerting their fading power before it becomes ineffective. They actually need more alliances, and multilateralism, to attempt to rein in China, and to a lesser extent Russia and India, but the US is trashing the prospects of that. The rest of the world, particularly the democratic bits, had better learn the lessons and act fast.
It's even more clear now that the American Century has ended. The only surprising thing is just how rapidly the end came about.
China is in just as much trouble as America and well past its demographic peak. It isn't on course to rule the world.
But, the most dangerous beast is a wounded one.
It doesn't look like that to me.
Pretty much all developed and middle income countries are past their demographic peak, in the absence of immigration.
China leads on the industries of the future, and thse don't usually need vast numbers of unskilled workers. I wouldn't want to live under the Chinese government, but in terms of economic and trade power it looks likely to dominate.
Then, you need to do more research.
China's population has already peaked, and they are starting to find it hard to get enough workers to all their factories. In the meantime, the number of retired Chinese is growing all the time which will become increasingly unaffordable for Beijing.
I suspect this lies behind moves on Taiwan, as much as anything about anniversaries.
It is not the driver avoiding prison that interests me but that a death in 2022 has taken more than three years to reach court.
The appreciation from the University of York is inspiring:- He left school at 17 without any A-levels and worked as a professional fisherman, eventually owning his own boat.
The money he earnt from fishing funded his passion for travel. It was while travelling that he became curious about living systems in the natural world, particularly in the marine environment. This inspired him to write a letter to Portsmouth Polytechnic at the age of 26 and convinced them to offer him a place to study Biological Science. He had not studied biology since the age of 13 and initially struggled but he persevered and graduated with a First-class degree.
In 1987 Simon was offered a PhD position at Pennsylvania State University under the supervision of Professor Daniel Cosgrove, publishing 5 ground-breaking papers based on his discovery of plant cell wall modifying proteins called expansins.
In 1994, after a short period as a postdoc at Penn State, Simon’s career at the University of York began. His pioneering work on plant cell walls formed the basis of a prestigious Royal Society Fellowship. Simon was subsequently appointed to a CNAP Chair in Materials Biology in 2001. His knowledge of plant cell walls laid an excellent foundation to developing innovative technologies for unlocking the sugars from the matrix polysaccharides in plant cell walls for the production of biofuels and chemicals, and recently, the production of sustainable textiles.
We urgently need minimum sentences for motoring offences that result in fatalities. The whole 'kill someone with a car and get away with it' nonsense is well out of hand now.
Unless there's more to it than reads, this bit here seems counter-intuitive.
Judge Melville said: “You were in the middle of your manoeuvre when [Prof McQueen-Mason] came around the corner. He couldn’t avoid you and you collided.
If you're going around a corner then you should be going at a speed in which you can stop depending upon what you see as you go around. If you can't avoid someone who is already in middle of a manoeuvre when you go around a corner, then surely you're going too fast?
As tragic as that might be.
Nearly 400 miles on a failed MOT is utterly inexcusable.
There are certain manoeuvres that you shouldn't do too close to corners where you'd be expecting people to come round those corners.
You shouldn't do a three-point turn too close to a corner, for example.
Good evening
Please do not mention roundabouts !!!!!
Round-a-what now?
I think there are a few in Clonakilty, but they are a quare lot that far east.
They have a statue of a Brazilian Spider Monkey called Tojo there. Quare indeed.
In case anybody fancies betting on the second round of the Portuguese presidential election, please note that the Socialist candidate won the first round and overperformed, and the far-right candidate who came second underperformed.
In case anybody fancies betting on the second round of the Portuguese presidential election, please note that the Socialist candidate won the first round and overperformed, and the far-right candidate who came second underperformed.
The story is that if Americans all lost 10% of their weight, airlines would use 1.5% less fuel as a result. They don’t (yes) charge humans by their own weight and the average American is 180lb. 1.5% of the fuel bill across the major American airlines is $580m.
I have long thought that airlines should charge by combined weight of passenger and baggage.
That might be the best way of my persuading a certain someone close to me, to pack her bag sensibly for a trip.
I used to do loads of work travel when younger, so have pretty much mastered taking a large laptop cabin bag with a week’s worth of clothes in it.
Yes, on our recent tour of India I was relieved that Railway station Porters were omnipresent!
When we backpacked across SE Asia we had packs of abot 40 litres and 10kg for 3 months, but that was 35 years ago.
Indeed. The more stuff you take the more stressful the trip, and certain points like the check-in/bag-drop desks add time and uncertainty to the process.
Last summer we did Dubai>Poland>Ukraine>Poland>UK>Poland>Dubai, with a wide variety of planes, trains, and automobiles used along the way.
Couldn’t have done it hauling the 30kg bag which is Emirates usual standard allowance in economy, and is for some reason seen by some of their customers *cough* as a target rather than a limit.
The story is that if Americans all lost 10% of their weight, airlines would use 1.5% less fuel as a result. They don’t (yes) charge humans by their own weight and the average American is 180lb. 1.5% of the fuel bill across the major American airlines is $580m.
I have long thought that airlines should charge by combined weight of passenger and baggage.
That might be the best way of my persuading a certain someone close to me, to pack her bag sensibly for a trip.
I used to do loads of work travel when younger, so have pretty much mastered taking a large laptop cabin bag with a week’s worth of clothes in it.
Yes, on our recent tour of India I was relieved that Railway station Porters were omnipresent!
When we backpacked across SE Asia we had packs of abot 40 litres and 10kg for 3 months, but that was 35 years ago.
Indeed. The more stuff you take the more stressful the trip, and certain points like the check-in/bag-drop desks add time and uncertainty to the process.
Last summer we did Dubai>Poland>Ukraine>Poland>UK>Poland>Dubai, with a wide variety of planes, trains, and automobiles used along the way.
Couldn’t have done it hauling the 30kg bag which is Emirates usual standard allowance in economy, and is for some reason seen by some of their customers *cough* as a target rather than a limit.
Tax free PBER flies ECONOMY !
WTFFFFF !!
If he’s paying for it himself, he most certainly does!
Although I’m not going to decline if someone at work wishes to seat me further forward!
Prices to fly DXB-LHR return next week: Economy: £700 Premium Economy: £1,600 Business: £4,000 First: £9,500
The story is that if Americans all lost 10% of their weight, airlines would use 1.5% less fuel as a result. They don’t (yes) charge humans by their own weight and the average American is 180lb. 1.5% of the fuel bill across the major American airlines is $580m.
I have long thought that airlines should charge by combined weight of passenger and baggage.
That might be the best way of my persuading a certain someone close to me, to pack her bag sensibly for a trip.
I used to do loads of work travel when younger, so have pretty much mastered taking a large laptop cabin bag with a week’s worth of clothes in it.
Yes, on our recent tour of India I was relieved that Railway station Porters were omnipresent!
When we backpacked across SE Asia we had packs of abot 40 litres and 10kg for 3 months, but that was 35 years ago.
Indeed. The more stuff you take the more stressful the trip, and certain points like the check-in/bag-drop desks add time and uncertainty to the process.
Last summer we did Dubai>Poland>Ukraine>Poland>UK>Poland>Dubai, with a wide variety of planes, trains, and automobiles used along the way.
Couldn’t have done it hauling the 30kg bag which is Emirates usual standard allowance in economy, and is for some reason seen by some of their customers *cough* as a target rather than a limit.
The story is that if Americans all lost 10% of their weight, airlines would use 1.5% less fuel as a result. They don’t (yes) charge humans by their own weight and the average American is 180lb. 1.5% of the fuel bill across the major American airlines is $580m.
I have long thought that airlines should charge by combined weight of passenger and baggage.
That might be the best way of my persuading a certain someone close to me, to pack her bag sensibly for a trip.
I used to do loads of work travel when younger, so have pretty much mastered taking a large laptop cabin bag with a week’s worth of clothes in it.
Yes, on our recent tour of India I was relieved that Railway station Porters were omnipresent!
When we backpacked across SE Asia we had packs of abot 40 litres and 10kg for 3 months, but that was 35 years ago.
Indeed. The more stuff you take the more stressful the trip, and certain points like the check-in/bag-drop desks add time and uncertainty to the process.
Last summer we did Dubai>Poland>Ukraine>Poland>UK>Poland>Dubai, with a wide variety of planes, trains, and automobiles used along the way.
Couldn’t have done it hauling the 30kg bag which is Emirates usual standard allowance in economy, and is for some reason seen by some of their customers *cough* as a target rather than a limit.
Tax free PBER flies ECONOMY !
WTFFFFF !!
If he’s paying for it himself, he most certainly does!
Although I’m not going to decline if someone at work wishes to seat me further forward!
Prices to fly DXB-LHR return next week: Economy: £700 Premium Economy: £1,600 Business: £4,000 First: £9,500
I work in [provincial town in one UK region]. I commute from [another provincial town in another region]. My commute plus accommodation costs about £1000 per month. I'm quite jealous. ☹️
Comments
What is with Tory defectors to Reform that they're all at least one of crooks or liars?
I asked someone who wrks with ex-prisoners and he told me that either they don't drive because f the insurance thing (and often can't get work as a result), but mostly they drive uninsured.
But one day weakness in the US markets might be seen as a good thing for Europe, and that would be an interesting change.
So if you want to increase the proportion spent on X then the proportion spent on other things will have to fall.
And if you want to significantly and/or quickly increase the amount spent on X then the amount spent on other things will have to fall in actual terms.
NEW THREAD
There is an irony that the Tea Party has led to taxes being imposed by diktat on the American people.
We just need a government to do it under full medical supervision in a sterile environment, rather than someone wielding a kitchen knife and a ballpoint pen on the side of a mountain.
Lots of people struggling to sell leasehold flats. Cutting prices still no buyers. Some estate agents won’t deal with new flats now, only older ones.
People having to discount to get sales. Estate agent valuations need to be real.
https://x.com/bucketsof_rain/status/2012480384454344856?s=61
There are political choices as to how to fund increased defence spending. There is more than one option.
The extraordinary meeting of EU leaders to discuss Greenland could take physically as soon as Thursday, 22 January, according to EU officials.
It will take place in Brussels after leaders attend the WEF in Davos.
Do you think the US military would still blindly follow orders or really struggle with it?
The U.S. futures market will be open tonight, Sunday, January 18, 2026, for its standard trading session, despite the U.S. markets being closed tomorrow for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday. Futures typically trade nearly 24 hours a day, five days a week, starting Sunday evening
2016 was disaster for London and Britain’s appeal to global investors.
A fall in house prices is not necessarily a bad thing.
Reeves is a fucking idiot and her policy against non-doms was driven by pure class spite.
Rachel Johnson will be predicting a new peasants revolt if the price of a Notting Hill semi falls below ten million.
https://www.cboe.com/about/hours/us-futures/
WTFFFFF !!
Putin must be ecstatic about his investment.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/089237ea443028ef
China's population has already peaked, and they are starting to find it hard to get enough workers to all their factories. In the meantime, the number of retired Chinese is growing all the time which will become increasingly unaffordable for Beijing.
I suspect this lies behind moves on Taiwan, as much as anything about anniversaries.
On your point, I could see several breaking ranks in the House (the Republican majority is very small) but I'm not confident of the Senate.
https://bsky.app/profile/jwsidders.bsky.social/post/3mcq7mgdmxk2r
https://bsky.app/profile/jwsidders.bsky.social/post/3mcpzrpwbas2i
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Portuguese_presidential_election
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/5519298/multi-market?marketIds=1.248593266
https://polymarket.com/predictions/portugal-election
https://polymarket.com/event/portugal-presidential-election-1st-round-winner
https://smarkets.com/event/44807341/politics/europe/2027/01/01/12-00/portugal/2026/01/18/06-00/2026-portugal-presidential-election
Although I’m not going to decline if someone at work wishes to seat me further forward!
Prices to fly DXB-LHR return next week:
Economy: £700
Premium Economy: £1,600
Business: £4,000
First: £9,500