I believe that GDP / capita comparison with Poland isn't straight GDP / capita, it is the adjusted purchasing power version. GDP / capita of Poland is still only ~$30k per year, but because it is still a very cheap place to live, when they do tha adjustments the "purchasing power" version is $55k / per year, which is more equivalent to London (as it gets knocked right down because of expensive living costs). Straight GDP / Capita of London is more like ~$80-85k / year.
The rest of the UK though is terrible. Poland now really isn't far away on straight GDP / Capita than the UK, and especially if you remove London.
It all depends on housing status and costs.
Your GDP per capita is meaningless unless you own your own home - earning more doesn't benefit yourself if it all goes on rent.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
YouGov is the pollster showing the LOWEST Reform share nationally.
Eh? On the polls I've seen over recent month they regularly have them in the 30s.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
I've said that it is entirely possible that Reform or some other party win the next election on a bigger landslide than Starmer on a much lower vote share than Labour in 2024 or the Tory vote share in 2024.
Yes, but with Nigel's favourability ratings and how marmite Reform are I just don't see it.
They will haul seats in certain places, for sure, but I don't believe this landslide stuff - people in most seats will work out who's most likely to beat Reform and block them if they feel that strongly about it, even if it results in a Balkanised House of Commons.
And demonstrates in Wales where a lot of that Plaid vote will be keep Reform out as much as none of the above
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
YouGov is the pollster showing the LOWEST Reform share nationally.
Eh? On the polls I've seen over recent month they regularly have them in the 30s.
Oh god, worse than using ChatGPT, they used Microsoft Co Pilot......the Temu of AI.
Also double lying plod,
In a letter to the chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee, Guildford says the information "arose as result of a use of Microsoft Co Pilot" - he had previously insisted the force "do not use AI" and a Google search provided the information.
Comparing Co Pilot to Temu is an insult to Temu, Temu is occasionally useful. Co Pilot sends you down the wrong path when you ask it about MS own products.
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
If Starmer visits a factory in the UK and a member of staff does something equivalent - can they be subject to disciplinary measures? I would assume yes - actions that bring the company into disrepute.
Exactly.
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
The guy is lucky the Secret Service didn't shoot him in the face for being rude
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
The UK has for quite a while been a poor country (economically and productively) with a very rich and productive capital.
London being comparable with Poland on GDP isn't exactly mind blowing.
38 million Poles vs 10 million Londoners, so London is four times more productive per capita?
That's because all the productive Poles moved to London!
So the rest of the UK received the unproductive Poles ?
It does look like a bad night for Labour in Wales in May and that Plaid will lead the new Welsh government and win most Senedd seats. The best Labour can hope for is to be junior partners to Plain in government in Wales rather than the Greens, even the main opposition is likely to be Reform.
In Scotland though it is likely to be a bit better for Labour, polls have the SNP down about 12 to 13% on the constituency vote but Labour down only 5 to 7% since 2021, so Labour might pick up a few constituencies in Holyrood from the SNP. On the regional vote Reform on 21% in Scotland now are doing almost as well as they are in the new Wales Yougov. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Scottish_Parliament_election#Regional_vote
Both Starmer and Kemi are facing bad nights in Wales with Starmer facing the worst as Labour won in Wales in 2021 but Kemi is facing an even worse result in Scotland where the Tories were second in 2021 ahead of Labour. Which of them survives as their party leader after May could well depend on whether it is the Tories or Labour second on NEV behind Reform
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
YouGov is the pollster showing the LOWEST Reform share nationally.
Eh? On the polls I've seen over recent month they regularly have them in the 30s.
What am I missing?
Yougov have always had Reform in the mid to high twenties.
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
Every year like clockwork the cheerleaders of *points at everything* feign shock for what amounts to one day and people eat it up. Full head in bowl. Scraps flying everywhere.
"Wow they've lost Rogan" then next week a three part episode on Negro skull size with Dr Caliper. I can't
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
The UK has for quite a while been a poor country (economically and productively) with a very rich and productive capital.
London being comparable with Poland on GDP isn't exactly mind blowing.
It's based on size of economy, not relative GDP to head.
London achieves that with under 10 million people.
Now drill down to ethnic mix - and stand back .....
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
A disturbingly large number of Americans think she had it coming.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
YouGov is the pollster showing the LOWEST Reform share nationally.
Eh? On the polls I've seen over recent month they regularly have them in the 30s.
What am I missing?
Reform are on just 24% in the latest UK Yougov, a mere 1% more than they are on in the latest Wales only Yougov.
Given Reform are on 31% in the latest Opinium poll, 33% with Freshwater, 32% with FON, 31% with MiC and 30% with Deltapoll and 30% with BMG and 29% with Survation I suspect Yougov are now underestimating Reform in Wales as well as nationally. The value bet for the Senedd May elections then may be Reform https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
The LDs know how to target and hold seats, hence the latest Nowcast has the LDs projected 80 MPs to just 26 for the Greens https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
It does look like a bad night for Labour in Wales in May and that Plaid will lead the new Welsh government and win most Senedd seats. The best Labour can hope for is to be junior partners to Plain in government in Wales rather than the Greens, even the main opposition is likely to be Reform.
I am sure, when the time comes, we PB'ers will share your joy that at least one of your favoured parties can actually win something?
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
On those numbers Scotland is richer in terms of gdp than the NorthEast, Yorkshire, the West and East Midlands. Wales also has a higher gdp than the NorthEast of England.
Northern Ireland also has a significantly lower gdp and gdp per capita than the Republic of Ireland now as well as other UK regions
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
It’s funny how the NRA’s big justification for everyone being armed to the teeth finally gets its test for the people to be able to resist an authoritarian government and it fails at the first time of asking.
Hopefully future US administrations will laugh and point at the NRA and remind them they are all piss and wind.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
The LDs know how to target and hold seats, hence the latest Nowcast has the LDs projected 80 MPs to just 26 for the Greens https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
They have the Greens sweeping Bristol and taking Huddersfield and seats in Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Birkenhead, Cambridge, Exeter, Tower Hamlets, and running Labour very close in Hackney. That's a very favourable situation for them, and clearly based on more than UNS
But the Tories depose Wes in Ilford North! Really?
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
Yes but no.
Those calling Rogan right-wing don’t realise he was a Dem voter until 2016.
This dead woman isn’t about to be the next George Floyd. The activists have moved on already.
On the other hand, Minneapolis is looking like ground zero for the second civil war right now.
If Starmer's in charge of a referendum then not only will Wales have a chance of leaving, they'd get Trident, the UN Security Council seat, and no share of the national debt.
We'd probably have Lammy cheerleading for the English paying reparations to the oppressed Celts into the bargain
Both Starmer and Farage have ruled out allowing indyref2 for Scotland even if the SNP win a majority and that is actually in the SNP manifesto for May.
Plaid don't even have pushing for an independence referendum in their manifesto for the Senedd so Starmer won't even need to refuse it even if they win
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
I've said that it is entirely possible that Reform or some other party win the next election on a bigger landslide than Starmer on a much lower vote share than Labour in 2024 or the Tory vote share in 2024.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
It’s funny how the NRA’s big justification for everyone being armed to the teeth finally gets its test for the people to be able to resist an authoritarian government and it fails at the first time of asking.
Hopefully future US administrations will laugh and point at the NRA and remind them they are all piss and wind.
All the 2A nuts joined ICE so they can finally shoot people and get away with it
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
On those numbers Scotland is richer in terms of gdp than the NorthEast, Yorkshire, the West and East Midlands. Wales also has a higher gdp than the NorthEast of England.
Northern Ireland also has a significantly lower gdp and gdp per capita than the Republic of Ireland now as well as other UK regions
Not so sure about Wales being comparable to Ecuador. Given the propensity of indigenous women to wear strange black hats I'd say Bolivia was more appropriate.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
Starmer and Badenoch beat Farage as preferred PM with most voters with Yougov this week
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
It’s funny how the NRA’s big justification for everyone being armed to the teeth finally gets its test for the people to be able to resist an authoritarian government and it fails at the first time of asking.
Hopefully future US administrations will laugh and point at the NRA and remind them they are all piss and wind.
All the 2A nuts joined ICE so they can finally shoot people and get away with it
Yes, it's this. And if you are a nutter who thinks there is a need to be armed to protect yourself against the government there is no problem with ICE.
The government = woke and Trump is the revolution, they think. They're protecting the people against the government by shooting them in the face - hence the "she used pronouns" and "she was a lesbian" attacks on Good.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
The LDs know how to target and hold seats, hence the latest Nowcast has the LDs projected 80 MPs to just 26 for the Greens https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
They have the Greens sweeping Bristol and taking Huddersfield and seats in Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Birkenhead, Cambridge, Exeter, Tower Hamlets, and running Labour very close in Hackney. That's a very favourable situation for them, and clearly based on more than UNS
But the Tories depose Wes in Ilford North! Really?
They have it as a four way race with 2.4 percentage points between first and four. That's far too close to sensibly call.
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
It’s funny how the NRA’s big justification for everyone being armed to the teeth finally gets its test for the people to be able to resist an authoritarian government and it fails at the first time of asking.
Hopefully future US administrations will laugh and point at the NRA and remind them they are all piss and wind.
All the 2A nuts joined ICE so they can finally shoot people and get away with it
Yes, it's this. And if you are a nutter who thinks there is a need to be armed to protect yourself against the government there is no problem with ICE.
The government = woke and Trump is the revolution, they think. They're protecting the people against the government by shooting them in the face - hence the "she used pronouns" and "she was a lesbian" attacks on Good.
My experience of American attitudes towards the bearing of arms suggests that the lesson many would draw from this episode is that if the couple in the car had been armed they could have fired back.
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
If Starmer visits a factory in the UK and a member of staff does something equivalent - can they be subject to disciplinary measures? I would assume yes - actions that bring the company into disrepute.
Exactly.
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
The guy is lucky the Secret Service didn't shoot him in the face for being rude
Being disrespectful to authority is only a capital offence for women.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
The LDs know how to target and hold seats, hence the latest Nowcast has the LDs projected 80 MPs to just 26 for the Greens https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
They have the Greens sweeping Bristol and taking Huddersfield and seats in Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Birkenhead, Cambridge, Exeter, Tower Hamlets, and running Labour very close in Hackney. That's a very favourable situation for them, and clearly based on more than UNS
But the Tories depose Wes in Ilford North! Really?
They have it as a four way race with 2.4 percentage points between first and four. That's far too close to sensibly call.
LAB 21.4% CON 22.4% RFM 20% MIN 21.6%
Yes, but last time the Tories came third - on what basis have they forecast a local increase in vote share, with the national poll rating down, and the Tories' fortunes in east London linked - at least recently - to ongoing demographic change there?
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
Yes but no.
Those calling Rogan right-wing don’t realise he was a Dem voter until 2016.
This dead woman isn’t about to be the next George Floyd. The activists have moved on already.
On the other hand, Minneapolis is looking like ground zero for the second civil war right now.
The left/right metric has shifted with the rise of MAGA though. Trump himself was a Dem for several years.
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
If Starmer visits a factory in the UK and a member of staff does something equivalent - can they be subject to disciplinary measures? I would assume yes - actions that bring the company into disrepute.
Exactly.
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
No it wouldn't. Biden didn't pal around with Epstein.
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
If Starmer visits a factory in the UK and a member of staff does something equivalent - can they be subject to disciplinary measures? I would assume yes - actions that bring the company into disrepute.
Exactly.
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
No it wouldn't. Biden didn't pal around with Epstein.
Plod admit they mislead MPs over the Maccabit Tel Aviv after using AI....
Called it. They ChatGPT'ed, give me all the terrible things their fans have done so we can ban them, and it came up with an event that never happened.
The Chief Constable's position is surely untenable now. If he has any sense of honour.
Oh.
The more that has been revealed about this story the more dodgy it all looked. The false story that AI generated and they used as evidence was only a small part of it.
But imagine not checking all actual incidents ChatGPT provided. They are the f##king police, evidence matters and they also have easy access to check.
But this is the classic fallacy. We know that people in EVERY field are using AI and letting mistakes through. The Sandie Peggie judgement is a classic example. And the police are just as likely as anyone else to be sucked in, Leon style, into using AI and believing what it puts out.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
The LDs know how to target and hold seats, hence the latest Nowcast has the LDs projected 80 MPs to just 26 for the Greens https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
They have the Greens sweeping Bristol and taking Huddersfield and seats in Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Birkenhead, Cambridge, Exeter, Tower Hamlets, and running Labour very close in Hackney. That's a very favourable situation for them, and clearly based on more than UNS
But the Tories depose Wes in Ilford North! Really?
They have it as a four way race with 2.4 percentage points between first and four. That's far too close to sensibly call.
LAB 21.4% CON 22.4% RFM 20% MIN 21.6%
Yes, but last time the Tories came third - on what basis have they forecast a local increase in vote share, with the national poll rating down, and the Tories' fortunes in east London linked - at least recently - to ongoing demographic change there?
The site's run solo by some anonymous 23-year old, and despite fancy graphics it doesn't really contain an explanation of its methodology
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
Prime example from just today.
Manchester is going to have to raise taxes locally to pay for the essential tunnel that both Northern Power Rail and HS2 need.
Meanwhile a single unhappy MP (the seat went Lib Dem on her death) cost HS2 £15bn by forcing a tunnel through the Chilterns
I see mad Ed Miliband (EICIPM) has now also locked us into record wind generation costs for the next 20 or so years.
Honestly, this government is just shocking
At £90 per mwh it's roughly the same as the previous round. It's disappointing that costs haven't dropped much over the last decade, but it's not a disaster.
It's still 40% lower than new gas plants too (on LCOE), so other than simply not generating any electricity I'm not sure the government had any other options.
I think my highest APR is 1400% so I wonder if Starmer will bring similar changes here.
Credit card interest rates is one of those ideas that polls really well in theory, but in practice results in regular providers simply failing to offer the product and people ending up with ‘unofficial’ lines of credit instead.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
The LDs know how to target and hold seats, hence the latest Nowcast has the LDs projected 80 MPs to just 26 for the Greens https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
They have the Greens sweeping Bristol and taking Huddersfield and seats in Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Birkenhead, Cambridge, Exeter, Tower Hamlets, and running Labour very close in Hackney. That's a very favourable situation for them, and clearly based on more than UNS
But the Tories depose Wes in Ilford North! Really?
They have it as a four way race with 2.4 percentage points between first and four. That's far too close to sensibly call.
LAB 21.4% CON 22.4% RFM 20% MIN 21.6%
Yes, but last time the Tories came third - on what basis have they forecast a local increase in vote share, with the national poll rating down, and the Tories' fortunes in east London linked - at least recently - to ongoing demographic change there?
No idea. TBH, I don't think any model is going to work well with an aggressive hyperlocal minority group.
It's an odd issue to pick up as it's not much of an issue in the US. Like the UK there are those on the margins that use it a lot, but people are more sophisticated than these statements suggest.
If you look at bankruptcy in the US rather than CC debt, it's healthcare costs that generate the most bankruptcies. And the GOP's playing around with subsidies have a more direct effect on that than credit card rates.
“AI” isn’t somehow an excuse for incompetence and antisemitism. The Home Secretary should formally state her lack of confidence in him.
Craig Guildford was worried about riots from locals in Birmingham, not the visiting football fans.
Both. The worry was that one side would provoke a fight with the other side, and both sides were more than ready to be provoked.
Except that WM police appear to have done no actual research on the travelling fans before the announcement, their worry being based entirely on the “concerns” of their local population.
They then tried to justify their decision after the fact by fabricating evidence.
Police fabricating evidence used to be a massive scandal.
If Trump wanted popurity boost around debt / credit, car payments and student loans is where there is huge pain in the US. Car payments in particular, that is across the board people badly effected by car price inflation combined with some very predratory behaviour from car financing companies.
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
If Starmer visits a factory in the UK and a member of staff does something equivalent - can they be subject to disciplinary measures? I would assume yes - actions that bring the company into disrepute.
Exactly.
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
No it wouldn't. Biden didn't pal around with Epstein.
Biden at an Epstein Party? Can you imagine it? Puhleeaase.......
“AI” isn’t somehow an excuse for incompetence and antisemitism. The Home Secretary should formally state her lack of confidence in him.
Craig Guildford was worried about riots from locals in Birmingham, not the visiting football fans.
Both. The worry was that one side would provoke a fight with the other side, and both sides were more than ready to be provoked.
Except that WM police appear to have done no actual research on the travelling fans before the announcement, their worry being based entirely on the “concerns” of their local population.
They then tried to justify their decision after the fact by fabricating evidence.
WM police have been compared to M&S tailoring. Both fit you up beautifully.
“AI” isn’t somehow an excuse for incompetence and antisemitism. The Home Secretary should formally state her lack of confidence in him.
Craig Guildford was worried about riots from locals in Birmingham, not the visiting football fans.
Both. The worry was that one side would provoke a fight with the other side, and both sides were more than ready to be provoked.
Except that WM police appear to have done no actual research on the travelling fans before the announcement, their worry being based entirely on the “concerns” of their local population.
They then tried to justify their decision after the fact by fabricating evidence.
I would tell the police chief that there is no evidence of his continued employment, that I could find by asking an LLM.
I think my highest APR is 1400% so I wonder if Starmer will bring similar changes here.
Credit card interest rates is one of those ideas that polls really well in theory, but in practice results in regular providers simply failing to offer the product and people ending up with ‘unofficial’ lines of credit instead.
If Trump wanted popurity boost around debt / credit, car payments and student loans is where there is huge pain in the US. Car payments in particular, that is across the board people badly effected by car price inflation combined with some very predratory behaviour from car financing companies.
The only way student loans ever get fixed is for governments to get out of the way.
The loan should be an agreement between the student, the educational institution, and the bank advancing the cash.
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
If Starmer visits a factory in the UK and a member of staff does something equivalent - can they be subject to disciplinary measures? I would assume yes - actions that bring the company into disrepute.
Exactly.
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
Which is why these visits to workplaces shouldn't happen. The politician gets to use the workers as an audience but the workers are prevented from expressing their dissent by their employer.
It's anti-democratic. Meet the voters in public where the voters are free to say what they want, or hide from them. Especially in the current era, only meeting the public when their livelihood is on the line if they aren't nice to you gives off authoritarian vibes.
“AI” isn’t somehow an excuse for incompetence and antisemitism. The Home Secretary should formally state her lack of confidence in him.
Craig Guildford was worried about riots from locals in Birmingham, not the visiting football fans.
Both. The worry was that one side would provoke a fight with the other side, and both sides were more than ready to be provoked.
Except that WM police appear to have done no actual research on the travelling fans before the announcement, their worry being based entirely on the “concerns” of their local population.
They then tried to justify their decision after the fact by fabricating evidence.
Police fabricating evidence used to be a massive scandal.
So what is it? The police fabricated evidence or they did not check AI hallucinations?
'Today the White House said that the president's security detail holding down a protestor so the president could shit on his face was appropriate.'
If Starmer visits a factory in the UK and a member of staff does something equivalent - can they be subject to disciplinary measures? I would assume yes - actions that bring the company into disrepute.
Exactly.
It’s a total non issue.
Some guy is rude to a visiting dignatory. He deserves the sack. Would be the same if it was Biden.
Still it occupied a few people on here for a while.
No it wouldn't. Biden didn't pal around with Epstein.
Biden at an Epstein Party? Can you imagine it? Puhleeaase.......
Pass the mind bleach.
Unless one has weird perceptions of acceptable, all the bleach has been used up over the actualité of Trump.
I think my highest APR is 1400% so I wonder if Starmer will bring similar changes here.
Credit card interest rates is one of those ideas that polls really well in theory, but in practice results in regular providers simply failing to offer the product and people ending up with ‘unofficial’ lines of credit instead.
Indeed. I can’t remember the exact numbers now, but the old idea that you’d ask a mate in the pub if he could lend you £20, and you’d pay him back and buy him a beer next week, has a four-figure interest rate if it was a formal transaction. But we’ve all done it.
As bad as it looks for Labour, there may just be a route for avoiding outright disaster in the locals in 2026.
If we imagine London, Wales and Scotland will grab the headlines, though I think the metropolitan all ups will vie for attention, it goes like this:
(1) Scotland - low Labour baseline, so if any positive progress can be made you have a decent news story, and current polls give that possibility.
(2) Wales - new electoral system. If you look at Caerphilly where Labour got 11% suffering FPTP vote switching to get PC over the line, then the calculus under d'Hondt is not the same. Seat counts are pretty sensitive to exact percentages, but if there is a general tactical calculus to maximise your bloc's seat counts, then it is to get the party that is borderline for getting 1 seat over the line - 2019 Euros played out like that. Labour will be in that position pretty much everywhere except Mid Wales, and so can pitch for the tactical vote in a way they couldn't in Caerphilly. Doesn't get them much above 14-15 seats as the second seats anywhere look a stretch, but that can be sold as not as bad as expected.
(3) London: London swings for a while aren't national swings so this is more a fingers crossed, not as bad as expected. One hope is that Your Party, with Corbyn in campaign mode, can have their one month of coming good before recollapsing in a heap and nobble the Greens just a little bit in enough places for Labour to hold on.
I mean, it's hardly Ode to Joy, and the numbers will be bad, but even a 'clinging on' narrative would be something Labour could take comfort from.
Wales could be forerunner in that the election becomes reform or anti-reform (AR). Plaid seem to be the preferred AR option.
In England though I'd guess Labour will still be the main alternative in most seats.
I don’t see Labour with its current leadership as an option in many places. They are making 2 many simple mistakes
Thing is, someone has to the the not-Reform, not-Labour option.
The Conservatives can't do it- partly because everyone expects them to cosy up to Reform if push comes to shove, also because the record up to 2024 is a still-undead albatross.
The Lib Dems aren't doing it, because not everywhere has a Gail's.
The Greens are just to flaky for middle England.
There is a gap in the market, but who can step up?
“AI” isn’t somehow an excuse for incompetence and antisemitism. The Home Secretary should formally state her lack of confidence in him.
Craig Guildford was worried about riots from locals in Birmingham, not the visiting football fans.
Both. The worry was that one side would provoke a fight with the other side, and both sides were more than ready to be provoked.
Except that WM police appear to have done no actual research on the travelling fans before the announcement, their worry being based entirely on the “concerns” of their local population.
They then tried to justify their decision after the fact by fabricating evidence.
Police fabricating evidence used to be a massive scandal.
So what is it? The police fabricated evidence or they did not check AI hallucinations?
“AI” isn’t somehow an excuse for incompetence and antisemitism. The Home Secretary should formally state her lack of confidence in him.
Craig Guildford was worried about riots from locals in Birmingham, not the visiting football fans.
Both. The worry was that one side would provoke a fight with the other side, and both sides were more than ready to be provoked.
Except that WM police appear to have done no actual research on the travelling fans before the announcement, their worry being based entirely on the “concerns” of their local population.
They then tried to justify their decision after the fact by fabricating evidence.
Police fabricating evidence used to be a massive scandal.
So what is it? The police fabricated evidence or they did not check AI hallucinations?
Arguably the fabrication may have been unintentional and a result of AI hallucination, but what was the prompt? "Give examples of Maccabi Tel Aviv fan violence"? The end result is what matters - the evidence used to justify a decision was fabricated. It may appear different to say the planting of drugs in a suspects car, but the principle is the same.
Wales could be forerunner in that the election becomes reform or anti-reform (AR). Plaid seem to be the preferred AR option.
In England though I'd guess Labour will still be the main alternative in most seats.
I don’t see Labour with its current leadership as an option in many places. They are making 2 many simple mistakes
Thing is, someone has to the the not-Reform, not-Labour option.
The Conservatives can't do it- partly because everyone expects them to cosy up to Reform if push comes to shove, also because the record up to 2024 is a still-undead albatross.
The Lib Dems aren't doing it, because not everywhere has a Gail's.
The Greens are just to flaky for middle England.
There is a gap in the market, but who can step up?
In many ways I don’t see that party appearing in time. Round here I suspect our former Tory MP will win if he stands but that’s potentially unique to a few seats
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As bad as it looks for Labour, there may just be a route for avoiding outright disaster in the locals in 2026.
If we imagine London, Wales and Scotland will grab the headlines, though I think the metropolitan all ups will vie for attention, it goes like this:
(1) Scotland - low Labour baseline, so if any positive progress can be made you have a decent news story, and current polls give that possibility.
(2) Wales - new electoral system. If you look at Caerphilly where Labour got 11% suffering FPTP vote switching to get PC over the line, then the calculus under d'Hondt is not the same. Seat counts are pretty sensitive to exact percentages, but if there is a general tactical calculus to maximise your bloc's seat counts, then it is to get the party that is borderline for getting 1 seat over the line - 2019 Euros played out like that. Labour will be in that position pretty much everywhere except Mid Wales, and so can pitch for the tactical vote in a way they couldn't in Caerphilly. Doesn't get them much above 14-15 seats as the second seats anywhere look a stretch, but that can be sold as not as bad as expected.
(3) London: London swings for a while aren't national swings so this is more a fingers crossed, not as bad as expected. One hope is that Your Party, with Corbyn in campaign mode, can have their one month of coming good before recollapsing in a heap and nobble the Greens just a little bit in enough places for Labour to hold on.
I mean, it's hardly Ode to Joy, and the numbers will be bad, but even a 'clinging on' narrative would be something Labour could take comfort from.
Labour will obviously pitch their spin of the results as, "not as bad as expected," and, "clear signs that our message is starting to get across and our position is recovering," but I don't expect the media to look beyond the headline numbers.
The headline is going to be Labour kicked out of government in Wales for the first time since the neolithic, with a seasoning of a complete bloodbath across England.
The main question is whether Reform can win the spin battle to claim to be the biggest winner - with gains in Scotland, Wales and English councils - or if a combination of Plaid in Wales and the Greens in London is able to eclipse them in the media consciousness.
Monday and Tuesday I travelled on the NSL-Zuid in the Netherlands. Multiple sections of high speed line which tie into the existing network at stations (e.g. Rotterdam Centraal). Which means big swoopy viaducts as NS are right hand running on classic lines but the European high speed network is left hand running.
125mph on the internal Intercity service, with a €3.50 per journey supplement to pay for it.
HS2? A calamity of idiocy which will never be paid for and absurdly doesn't tie into the existing network.
I am confused in the West Midlands police story why the Chief Constable thought it was a good defence initially to say they provided incorrect info due to incompetent google searching and not because of AI. Ok, it matters in terms of whether he was factual in his responses to the parliamentary committee, but it would still have a remarkable admission.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
If you look beneath the headlines, and aside from pollsters like YouGov, Reform aren't polling that much better than Rishi on average, who lost in a landslide.
The narrative is Nigel is on course to be the next PM, and that's generally because Reform are polling first in a crowded field, but I'm not sure he's even close.
I've said that it is entirely possible that Reform or some other party win the next election on a bigger landslide than Starmer on a much lower vote share than Labour in 2024 or the Tory vote share in 2024.
Yes, but with Nigel's favourability ratings and how marmite Reform are I just don't see it.
They will haul seats in certain places, for sure, but I don't believe this landslide stuff - people in most seats will work out who's most likely to beat Reform and block them if they feel that strongly about it, even if it results in a Balkanised House of Commons.
It would throw up some peculiar results to be sure. At the moment i think they'd get over the line, but not by as much as headline polling would suggest were it the 'normal' big two.
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A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
The UK has for quite a while been a poor country (economically and productively) with a very rich and productive capital.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.
I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?
Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)
That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.
All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.
The UK has for quite a while been a poor country (economically and productively) with a very rich and productive capital.
London being comparable with Poland on GDP isn't exactly mind blowing.
38 million Poles vs 10 million Londoners, so London is four times more productive per capita?
"A new public service broadcaster should be considered in the event of a united Ireland, researchers have said."
There seems to be an increasing amount of work being done to consider how to make a United Ireland work. The question is whether the work is good enough to give the idea the credibility to win public support.
I thought PBers might also be interested in the proposed funding model.
It recommended that a new media group be funded like the Finnish public media model.
This sees people pay 2.5% of their "total earned income and capital income" above €14,000, but the maximum payment is €163 per year.
"The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."
Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.
"A new public service broadcaster should be considered in the event of a united Ireland, researchers have said."
There seems to be an increasing amount of work being done to consider how to make a United Ireland work. The question is whether the work is good enough to give the idea the credibility to win public support.
I thought PBers might also be interested in the proposed funding model.
It recommended that a new media group be funded like the Finnish public media model.
This sees people pay 2.5% of their "total earned income and capital income" above €14,000, but the maximum payment is €163 per year.
Even as a supporter of the BBC, pretty sure a new tax for public broadcasting does seem a great way to unite the nation, but probably not in the manner the researchers desire.
The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
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A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
The podcast bubble will burst. People are paying too much money for podcasts when they are oversaturated and a pretty low bar to entry. We have seen this already with companies buying up popular YouTube channels thinking the "brand" is strong, but they make changes, increase advertising, the original creator often take more of a back seat and the views drop.
The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output
A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
The podcast bubble will burst. People are paying too much money for podcasts when they are oversaturated and a pretty low bar to entry. We have seen this already with companies buying up popular YouTube channels thinking the "brand" is strong, but they make changes, increase advertising, the original creator often take more of a back seat and the views drop.
I like a good podcast, but i only have so many hours in the day.
The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
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The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
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I have a lot of time for Cathy Newman after watching the Channel 4 doc “See no evil” about John Smyth and his revolting abuse - she managed to track him down on a return to the UK and doorstepped him with a camera crew and then proceeds to conduct an interrogation for ten minutes in one uncut shot as he is trying to walk away with her with his wife. Doesn’t give up and unfailingly polite.
The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output
A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
If the podcast is mostly just clips from the program plus some top and tail then it's a fairly cheap bit of extra market. Heck, the'd probably be doing some of those clips for YouTube anyway.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Demography and psephology and history and polling. And analyses by Gareth of the Vale over the last few months. It has nothing to do with personal bias. I would be delighted with any competent centrist government including an LD one and I don't think Reform is a candidate for competence.
My personal opinion is that in the next election Reform will come second or third in votes and seats and won't form a government. A very large number of good people fear that I am wrong.
SFAICS not a single expert politics watcher in the mainstream media think there is the slightest possibility of the LDs forming the next government by winning most seats. Coalition of course is a possible, as it is for more or less all parties.
The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output
A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
The podcast bubble will burst. People are paying too much money for podcasts when they are oversaturated and a pretty low bar to entry. We have seen this already with companies buying up popular YouTube channels thinking the "brand" is strong, but they make changes, increase advertising, the original creator often take more of a back seat and the views drop.
I like a good podcast, but i only have so many hours in the day.
There is another problem with them. If you aren't in the super expert niche space, you are basically chasing the same people for an interview. Then you end up with the same person being interview 87 times and even the most interesting and engaging people like a Rory Sutherland becomes boring after he has done the rounds.
Also its super hard even in the expert niche space if your model becomes I need to do at least a weekly one e.g. Freakonomics is on the whole now dead boring.
The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output
The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.
A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output
[Right-wing] Podcaster Joe Rogan believes that Americans now see Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents as “murderous military people,” calling the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis “horrific.”
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
Yes but no.
Those calling Rogan right-wing don’t realise he was a Dem voter until 2016.
The Human Big Toe is very influential among flabby incels who sit in "gaming" chairs for 14 hours/day and are an important part of 🍊💩's electoral coalition and online support. Rogan is an arch opportunist who wouldn't care if ICE executed people all day and all night so if he's getting off the Magatrain, it's because he thinks there is an imminent vibeshift.
Another thing that has gone to shit in the UK. People used to fall on their sword, now they drag it out for as long as possible, do the teary interview saying I am being treated unfairly, its all a terrible misunderstanding, the media are being meanies etc etc etc. You have been caught out, now f## off.
It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.
If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.
I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.
On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.
With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government. With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.
So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.
In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.
On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
If the decider is simply poll rating, then the Tories aren't a possible party of government right now. Although they might be part of a government, but then so might the LibDems. I took the original reference to 'possible' to be about more than just the latest poll rating?
Prediction is about assessing stuff that hasn't happened yet. My views - that LDs can't and Tories can come first in the next GE and thereby form a government - is backed by real money. Hills have 'Tories most seats' at 4/1. 'LD most seats' at 40/1. In my view the Tory odds are slightly generous, the LD odds are very tight. (But Hills have a party I have never heard of, 'Advance' at 50/1.)
Comments
Your GDP per capita is meaningless unless you own your own home - earning more doesn't benefit yourself if it all goes on rent.
What am I missing?
It’s like watching Sideshow Bob walking through hundreds of rakes….
“It's very ugly to watch someone shoot a U.S. citizen, especially a woman, in the face…It just looked horrific to me. When people say it's justifiable because the car hit him, it seemed like she was turning the car away.”
Given his reach, this could be a significant influencer on US opinion?
In Scotland though it is likely to be a bit better for Labour, polls have the SNP down about 12 to 13% on the constituency vote but Labour down only 5 to 7% since 2021, so Labour might pick up a few constituencies in Holyrood from the SNP. On the regional vote Reform on 21% in Scotland now are doing almost as well as they are in the new Wales Yougov.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Scottish_Parliament_election#Regional_vote
Both Starmer and Kemi are facing bad nights in Wales with Starmer facing the worst as Labour won in Wales in 2021 but Kemi is facing an even worse result in Scotland where the Tories were second in 2021 ahead of Labour. Which of them survives as their party leader after May could well depend on whether it is the Tories or Labour second on NEV behind Reform
In a corporate environment he’d be given a metaphorical Russian window treatment from security.
Every year like clockwork the cheerleaders of *points at everything* feign shock for what amounts to one day and people eat it up. Full head in bowl. Scraps flying everywhere.
"Wow they've lost Rogan" then next week a three part episode on Negro skull size with Dr Caliper. I can't
https://bsky.app/profile/patrickclaybon.bsky.social/post/3mcdoviaplk2o
Given Reform are on 31% in the latest Opinium poll, 33% with Freshwater, 32% with FON, 31% with MiC and 30% with Deltapoll and 30% with BMG and 29% with Survation I suspect Yougov are now underestimating Reform in Wales as well as nationally. The value bet for the Senedd May elections then may be Reform
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
Northern Ireland also has a significantly lower gdp and gdp per capita than the Republic of Ireland now as well as other UK regions
Hopefully future US administrations will laugh and point at the NRA and remind them they are all piss and wind.
But the Tories depose Wes in Ilford North! Really?
Those calling Rogan right-wing don’t realise he was a Dem voter until 2016.
This dead woman isn’t about to be the next George Floyd. The activists have moved on already.
On the other hand, Minneapolis is looking like ground zero for the second civil war right now.
Plaid don't even have pushing for an independence referendum in their manifesto for the Senedd so Starmer won't even need to refuse it even if they win
In England though I'd guess Labour will still be the main alternative in most seats.
The government = woke and Trump is the revolution, they think. They're protecting the people against the government by shooting them in the face - hence the "she used pronouns" and "she was a lesbian" attacks on Good.
LAB 21.4%
CON 22.4%
RFM 20%
MIN 21.6%
One despairs.
Limiting the APR credit card firms can charge.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmlkxjm88ko
I think my highest APR is 1400% so I wonder if Starmer will bring similar changes here.
Biden didn't pal around with Epstein.
Biden didn't pal around with Epstein.
It’s lesbians voting they object to.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c394zlr8e12t
The banning of the Maccabbi fans was discussed lengthily and earnestly here. Now it all turns out to be more cock up than conspiracy.
Why do we waste our time?
Manchester is going to have to raise taxes locally to pay for the essential tunnel that both Northern Power Rail and HS2 need.
Meanwhile a single unhappy MP (the seat went Lib Dem on her death) cost HS2 £15bn by forcing a tunnel through the Chilterns
It's still 40% lower than new gas plants too (on LCOE), so other than simply not generating any electricity I'm not sure the government had any other options.
Expect it to follow him around.
Maybe somebody could re-record The Clash's "Ghetto defendant" with changed lyrics - and play it wherever he goes...
Trump’s wrong, and you can all quote me on that.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/ny-fed-credit-card-debt-second-quarter-2025.html
It's an odd issue to pick up as it's not much of an issue in the US. Like the UK there are those on the margins that use it a lot, but people are more sophisticated than these statements suggest.
If you look at bankruptcy in the US rather than CC debt, it's healthcare costs that generate the most bankruptcies. And the GOP's playing around with subsidies have a more direct effect on that than credit card rates.
https://www.abi.org/feed-item/health-care-costs-number-one-cause-of-bankruptcy-for-american-families
Seems another one of Trump's image over substance.
They then tried to justify their decision after the fact by fabricating evidence.
Police fabricating evidence used to be a massive scandal.
Pass the mind bleach.
https://www.ft.com/content/88dabab0-791c-4409-96ca-6c369790310e
The loan should be an agreement between the student, the educational institution, and the bank advancing the cash.
It's anti-democratic. Meet the voters in public where the voters are free to say what they want, or hide from them. Especially in the current era, only meeting the public when their livelihood is on the line if they aren't nice to you gives off authoritarian vibes.
All politicians these days are fecking cowards.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04s8m7n
If we imagine London, Wales and Scotland will grab the headlines, though I think the metropolitan all ups will vie for attention, it goes like this:
(1) Scotland - low Labour baseline, so if any positive progress can be made you have a decent news story, and current polls give that possibility.
(2) Wales - new electoral system. If you look at Caerphilly where Labour got 11% suffering FPTP vote switching to get PC over the line, then the calculus under d'Hondt is not the same. Seat counts are pretty sensitive to exact percentages, but if there is a general tactical calculus to maximise your bloc's seat counts, then it is to get the party that is borderline for getting 1 seat over the line - 2019 Euros played out like that. Labour will be in that position pretty much everywhere except Mid Wales, and so can pitch for the tactical vote in a way they couldn't in Caerphilly. Doesn't get them much above 14-15 seats as the second seats anywhere look a stretch, but that can be sold as not as bad as expected.
(3) London: London swings for a while aren't national swings so this is more a fingers crossed, not as bad as expected. One hope is that Your Party, with Corbyn in campaign mode, can have their one month of coming good before recollapsing in a heap and nobble the Greens just a little bit in enough places for Labour to hold on.
I mean, it's hardly Ode to Joy, and the numbers will be bad, but even a 'clinging on' narrative would be something Labour could take comfort from.
The Conservatives can't do it- partly because everyone expects them to cosy up to Reform if push comes to shove, also because the record up to 2024 is a still-undead albatross.
The Lib Dems aren't doing it, because not everywhere has a Gail's.
The Greens are just to flaky for middle England.
There is a gap in the market, but who can step up?
Hah. Just got it. Thank you.
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The headline is going to be Labour kicked out of government in Wales for the first time since the neolithic, with a seasoning of a complete bloodbath across England.
The main question is whether Reform can win the spin battle to claim to be the biggest winner - with gains in Scotland, Wales and English councils - or if a combination of Plaid in Wales and the Greens in London is able to eclipse them in the media consciousness.
125mph on the internal Intercity service, with a €3.50 per journey supplement to pay for it.
HS2? A calamity of idiocy which will never be paid for and absurdly doesn't tie into the existing network.
The subtlety of my puns is only matched by their awesomeness.
It’s the rest of the country try that matters.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2026/0114/1552992-broadcaster-united-ireland/
"A new public service broadcaster should be considered in the event of a united Ireland, researchers have said."
There seems to be an increasing amount of work being done to consider how to make a United Ireland work. The question is whether the work is good enough to give the idea the credibility to win public support.
I thought PBers might also be interested in the proposed funding model.
It recommended that a new media group be funded like the Finnish public media model.
This sees people pay 2.5% of their "total earned income and capital income" above €14,000, but the maximum payment is €163 per year.
"The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."
Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.
My personal opinion is that in the next election Reform will come second or third in votes and seats and won't form a government. A very large number of good people fear that I am wrong.
SFAICS not a single expert politics watcher in the mainstream media think there is the slightest possibility of the LDs forming the next government by winning most seats. Coalition of course is a possible, as it is for more or less all parties.
Also its super hard even in the expert niche space if your model becomes I need to do at least a weekly one e.g. Freakonomics is on the whole now dead boring.
(narrator: yes, apparently this appears to be true)