Skip to content

Don’t look back in Bangor – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,473
    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,905

    Foss said:
    Another thing that has gone to shit in the UK. People used to fall on their sword, now they drag it out for as long as possible, do the teary interview saying I am being treated unfairly, its all a terrible misunderstanding, the media are being meanies etc etc etc. You have been caught out, now f## off.
    “But they are the right sort of person and meant well”

    We even had a PB regular who tried that line for Paula Vennells.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.

    I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
    Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?

    Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
    I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)

    That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
    From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.

    All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.


    If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
    Prime example from just today.

    Manchester is going to have to raise taxes locally to pay for the essential tunnel that both Northern Power Rail and HS2 need.

    Meanwhile a single unhappy MP (the seat went Lib Dem on her death) cost HS2 £15bn by forcing a tunnel through the Chilterns
    Two Nations.

    I think Disraeli once wrote something about that.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,265
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    I still cannot get over how unpopular the LDs are in Wales. At least in Scotland they've clustered their vote to still maximise seats.

    There are no Gail's in Wales.

    (narrator: yes, apparently this appears to be true)
    And no frogs on logs. Or cats on mats.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,270

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,425

    Foss said:
    Another thing that has gone to shit in the UK. People used to fall on their sword, now they drag it out for as long as possible, do the teary interview saying I am being treated unfairly, its all a terrible misunderstanding, the media are being meanies etc etc etc. You have been caught out, now f## off.
    “But they are the right sort of person and meant well”

    We even had a PB regular who tried that line for Paula Vennells.
    Of course what will happen eventually get the heave ho and in a years time we find back in a plum job just like banker lady who leaked about Farage debanking to a BBC journalist and then lied about it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,053

    Foss said:
    Another thing that has gone to shit in the UK. People used to fall on their sword, now they drag it out for as long as possible, do the teary interview saying I am being treated unfairly, its all a terrible misunderstanding, the media are being meanies etc etc etc. You have been caught out, now f## off.
    “But they are the right sort of person and meant well”

    We even had a PB regular who tried that line for Paula Vennells.
    Who? Don't be coy and name names. The truth only hurts when it should.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,423
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    I still cannot get over how unpopular the LDs are in Wales. At least in Scotland they've clustered their vote to still maximise seats.

    There are no Gail's in Wales.

    (narrator: yes, apparently this appears to be true)
    Look out for Gwen's perhaps?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,918
    edited 11:39AM
    IanB2 said:

    Foss said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.

    On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.

    With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government.
    With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.

    So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.

    In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.

    On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
    Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
    The LDs know how to target and hold seats, hence the latest Nowcast has the LDs projected 80 MPs to just 26 for the Greens
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
    They have the Greens sweeping Bristol and taking Huddersfield and seats in Leeds, Sheffield, Manchester, Birkenhead, Cambridge, Exeter, Tower Hamlets, and running Labour very close in Hackney. That's a very favourable situation for them, and clearly based on more than UNS

    But the Tories depose Wes in Ilford North! Really?
    They have it as a four way race with 2.4 percentage points between first and four. That's far too close to sensibly call.

    LAB 21.4%
    CON 22.4%
    RFM 20%
    MIN 21.6%
    Yes, but last time the Tories came third - on what basis have they forecast a local increase in vote share, with the national poll rating down, and the Tories' fortunes in east London linked - at least recently - to ongoing demographic change there?
    Kemi has made gains with under 35s from Labour in polls, despite losses to Reform with over 40s and there are more under 40s in London than the rest of the UK. So a Tory gain in Ilford North is not impossible if the Independent hard left continue to take Labour votes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,918
    edited 11:38AM
    Nigelb said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.

    I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
    Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?

    Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
    I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)

    That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
    From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.

    All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.


    If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
    Though London also provides investment for the poorer regions of the UK
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341

    Foss said:
    Another thing that has gone to shit in the UK. People used to fall on their sword, now they drag it out for as long as possible, do the teary interview saying I am being treated unfairly, its all a terrible misunderstanding, the media are being meanies etc etc etc. You have been caught out, now f## off.
    Probably feels hard done by as his subordinates gave him the duff info, but them's the breaks, and his attitude has been combative.

    He'll walk into another senior high paying job so what's his problem?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268

    kle4 said:

    I still cannot get over how unpopular the LDs are in Wales. At least in Scotland they've clustered their vote to still maximise seats.

    Churchill was a Liberal when he sent in the troops to shoot striking Welsh miners, the Welsh have long memories.
    Doesn't sound too liberal to me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    I still cannot get over how unpopular the LDs are in Wales. At least in Scotland they've clustered their vote to still maximise seats.

    There are no Gail's in Wales.

    (narrator: yes, apparently this appears to be true)
    And no frogs on logs. Or cats on mats.
    Clocks on fox in socks in box.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    If he can be the new Tory party and still not alienate all the non tories in his ranks it still helps.

    It shows people are still leaving the Tories even as Kemi has somewhat improved her own ratings, which hurts tory morale (half want to work with reform anyway, and a quarter hate them).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,423
    edited 11:43AM
    kle4 said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    If he can be the new Tory party and still not alienate all the non tories in his ranks it still helps.

    It shows people are still leaving the Tories even as Kemi has somewhat improved her own ratings, which hurts tory morale (half want to work with reform anyway, and a quarter hate them).
    The more the discontented leave to join Reform, the easier it should be for Kemi to pick up centrists from Lab and LD. If she could somehow lose Jenrick and Lam.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.

    I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
    Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?

    Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
    I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)

    That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
    From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.

    All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.


    If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
    Though London also provides investment for the poorer regions of the UK
    Not really.
    It largely spends money on healthcare and education and benefits. That's not really investment.

    We were better off when the money went through the EU, in terms of regional investment.
    The Brexit promises that central government would replace that funding were quickly forgotten.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,918
    edited 11:48AM
    'Was chatting to a Reform source earlier today.

    They said morale in the party is “very low” among some members at the moment.

    When I asked why, they said: “Too many Tories. None of them signed up to Tories 2.”
    https://x.com/EPriceJourno/status/2011135357149200761?s=20

    Some of the above may head off to Advance with Tommy Robinson and Ben Habib and Restore with Rupert Lowe
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,423
    edited 11:49AM
    HYUFD said:

    'Was chatting to a Reform source earlier today.

    They said morale in the party is “very low” among some members at the moment.

    When I asked why, they said: “Too many Tories. None of them signed up to Tories 2.”
    https://x.com/EPriceJourno/status/2011135357149200761?s=20

    Some of the above may head off to Advance with Tommy Robinson and Ben Habib and Restore with Rupert Lowe

    If I were a political journalist I would follow the Bozo route and make up quotes like these.

    Actually nowadays I'd get Claude to do it for me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,425
    One of the councillors to defect,

    David Hawley – Green Party – St Helens Borough Council

    Somebody has been on a journey!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,604
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    @cathynewman is joining Sky News!

    The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.

    A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2011392866426445861?s=20

    A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
    The podcast bubble will burst. People are paying too much money for podcasts when they are oversaturated and a pretty low bar to entry. We have seen this already with companies buying up popular YouTube channels thinking the "brand" is strong, but they make changes, increase advertising, the original creator often take more of a back seat and the views drop.
    I like a good podcast, but i only have so many hours in the day.
    Me too! I love 'Rest is History', 'We have ways' and 'Elis James and John Robins'. Add in some 'Uncanny' and there is a lot of content. Given I get about 3 h a week to listen (mainly car journeys without my son twice a week) - its not enough!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,293
    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    I still cannot get over how unpopular the LDs are in Wales. At least in Scotland they've clustered their vote to still maximise seats.

    There are no Gail's in Wales.

    (narrator: yes, apparently this appears to be true)
    And no frogs on logs. Or cats on mats.
    Gail's have not succeeded in the Principality.

    In fact... (wait for it)

    Gail's have Failed in Wales

    :)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,686

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjwgzwe2eyo

    "The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."

    Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.

    That's the problem. It was almost certainly not her decision in any meaningful sense, or at least not her policy. Rather she is just picking courses from the standard Treasury menu. If it had been policy, she might at least have known what the consequences are.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,686

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
    The ex-Tories also have some idea of the mechanics of running things – how council committees work and so on. Reform has seen many problems on that front. The difficulty for Reform is staying turquoise rather than pale blue.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,473
    HYUFD said:

    'Was chatting to a Reform source earlier today.

    They said morale in the party is “very low” among some members at the moment.

    When I asked why, they said: “Too many Tories. None of them signed up to Tories 2.”
    https://x.com/EPriceJourno/status/2011135357149200761?s=20

    Some of the above may head off to Advance with Tommy Robinson and Ben Habib and Restore with Rupert Lowe

    The 'People's Insurgency' that's run by a load of Tory retreads who spent 14 years getting us into this mess.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,997
    "Police called as council votes to shelve election

    A meeting held to discuss the postponing of local elections was held up for 30 minutes after a councillor called a member of the public a Nazi and police were called.

    About 50 protesters turned up to the extraordinary meeting at Redditch Borough Council. Labour councillor Ian Woodhall became involved in a row with a member of the public and both left the meeting early after tempers frayed and the epithet used.

    Police were called but said no criminal offence had been committed."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c701xwe75v0o
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,425
    edited 12:05PM

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjwgzwe2eyo

    "The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."

    Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.

    That's the problem. It was almost certainly not her decision in any meaningful sense, or at least not her policy. Rather she is just picking courses from the standard Treasury menu. If it had been policy, she might at least have known what the consequences are.
    I think its quite normal for ministers to ask their minions for ideas. The crucial issue is when you get such ideas in that a) you do your own thinking about these policies and b) you challenge your minions ideas for potential weakness / issues. It pretty clear that our customer service manager of a chancellor can't do these things.

    For all the critism of Brown (and led to his downfall as PM), he was famed for asking his minion I want more information again and again, I want to know more about what might happen if we do x or y. He was well extremely informed about what were the ins and outs of the budget decisions.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,686

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    @cathynewman is joining Sky News!

    The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.

    A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2011392866426445861?s=20

    A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
    The podcast bubble will burst. People are paying too much money for podcasts when they are oversaturated and a pretty low bar to entry. We have seen this already with companies buying up popular YouTube channels thinking the "brand" is strong, but they make changes, increase advertising, the original creator often take more of a back seat and the views drop.
    I like a good podcast, but i only have so many hours in the day.
    Me too! I love 'Rest is History', 'We have ways' and 'Elis James and John Robins'. Add in some 'Uncanny' and there is a lot of content. Given I get about 3 h a week to listen (mainly car journeys without my son twice a week) - its not enough!
    The trick is discovering how fast you can play them – 1.25x for me (going faster needs more active listening even if gradually ratcheting the speed up; ymmv).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,686
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.

    I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
    Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?

    Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
    I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)

    That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
    From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.

    All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.


    If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
    Though London also provides investment for the poorer regions of the UK
    Not really.
    It largely spends money on healthcare and education and benefits. That's not really investment.

    We were better off when the money went through the EU, in terms of regional investment.
    The Brexit promises that central government would replace that funding were quickly forgotten.
    Brexit promises forgotten? Has this ever happened before?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,918
    viewcode said:

    algarkirk said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    I still cannot get over how unpopular the LDs are in Wales. At least in Scotland they've clustered their vote to still maximise seats.

    There are no Gail's in Wales.

    (narrator: yes, apparently this appears to be true)
    And no frogs on logs. Or cats on mats.
    Gail's have not succeeded in the Principality.

    In fact... (wait for it)

    Gail's have Failed in Wales

    :)
    Monmouth might be a possibility or Brecon or Aberystwyth (where the King studied for a term) or the posher bits of Cardiff or Anglesey (where the Prince and Princess of Wales lived for a time)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,997
    "PolliticsUK
    @PolliticoUK
    🚨 Westminster Voting Intention:

    ➡️ REF: 31% (=)
    🌳 CON: 21% (-2)
    🌹 LAB: 19% (=)
    🔶 LDEM: 12% (=)
    🟢 GRN: 12% (+2)

    From
    @Moreincommon_

    From 10th - 13th January
    Changes with 7th January"

    https://x.com/PolliticoUK/status/2011354866736926787
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,473

    That's a lot of councillors to defect in one week - I suppose that ReformUK have been storing them up to make a big news story following Zahawi's move. As some of you may know, I keep a tally of these things for the Liberal England website. If they carry on at this rate I am going to need a bigger spreadsheet for 2026......

    For anyone interested, here's my summary of the defections that took place during 2025.

    https://liberalengland.blogspot.com/2025/12/guest-post-local-councillors-changing.html

    Thanks for the link.

    Your list of those with more than eight defections doesn't have Broxtowe. iirc around twenty Lab types left to form an indie alliance.

  • TresTres Posts: 3,396
    The weird thing about mentioning the fictional West Ham match is that it doesn't even support the police position, because the inclusion implies the match in London passed off without incident.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,098
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    I don't pretend to understand Welsh (or any) politics, but I think this point is important for England - which is over 500 Westminster seats.

    On current form there are three contests going on: Reform v Not Reform; Labour v Not Labour; and Left of Centre v Right of Centre. All three involve very strong convictions among voters.

    With the right of centre there are two parties and two possible parties of government.
    With the left of centre there are 3 parties (+ ragtag of Jezbollah etc) but only one possible party of government - Labour.

    So the outcome is heavily dependent on how much the centre left half of the voters want to form the next government, and if their dislike of Labour outweighs their dislike of Tory/Reform.

    In Wales 2026 (but not 2029) it is easy - vote PC. It is a risk free option. In England it remains an open question. There are no centre left risk free options except combining to back Labour.

    On what basis are you deciding that Reform, with its five MPs, mercurial untested leader and its chequered record is a possible party of government, when the LibDems with their 72 MPs and five solid years in government relatively recently, is not?
    Because the LibDems are coasting on their 2024 result, show no sign of recognising that their failure to snaffle up the free food in front of them whilst the Greens gobble it up muy gusto is dangerous for them, and no matter how efficient they are in their new constituencies there's only so much you can do with a declining vote share before you start losing seats fast.
    If the decider is simply poll rating, then the Tories aren't a possible party of government right now. Although they might be part of a government, but then so might the LibDems. I took the original reference to 'possible' to be about more than just the latest poll rating?
    Prediction is about assessing stuff that hasn't happened yet. My views - that LDs can't and Tories can come first in the next GE and thereby form a government - is backed by real money. Hills have 'Tories most seats' at 4/1. 'LD most seats' at 40/1. In my view the Tory odds are slightly generous, the LD odds are very tight. (But Hills have a party I have never heard of, 'Advance' at 50/1.)

    Advance are a more right wing splinter group from Reform UK. Doesn’t Elon Musk like them?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341

    kle4 said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    If he can be the new Tory party and still not alienate all the non tories in his ranks it still helps.

    It shows people are still leaving the Tories even as Kemi has somewhat improved her own ratings, which hurts tory morale (half want to work with reform anyway, and a quarter hate them).
    The more the discontented leave to join Reform, the easier it should be for Kemi to pick up centrists from Lab and LD. If she could somehow lose Jenrick and Lam.....
    If the Reform rise had been later in coming maybe that would have worked ok. I feel like people are still too wary to head back to the Tories.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273
    edited 12:20PM

    Foss said:
    Another thing that has gone to shit in the UK. People used to fall on their sword, now they drag it out for as long as possible, do the teary interview saying I am being treated unfairly, its all a terrible misunderstanding, the media are being meanies etc etc etc. You have been caught out, now f## off.
    Yeah he can f*** right off, then f*** off some more.

    Have some dignity, if you’re gonna take the salary (and massive f***-off unaffordable pension) then institutional failures are on you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,905

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjwgzwe2eyo

    "The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."

    Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.

    That's the problem. It was almost certainly not her decision in any meaningful sense, or at least not her policy. Rather she is just picking courses from the standard Treasury menu. If it had been policy, she might at least have known what the consequences are.
    I think its quite normal for ministers to ask their minions for ideas. The crucial issue is when you get such ideas in that a) you do your own thinking about these policies and b) you challenge your minions ideas for potential weakness / issues. It pretty clear that our customer service manager of a chancellor can't do these things.

    For all the critism of Brown (and led to his downfall as PM), he was famed for asking his minion I want more information again and again, I want to know more about what might happen if we do x or y. He was well extremely informed about what were the ins and outs of the budget decisions.
    The impression that Starmer & Co. give is that they are in office, but The System is in power.

    This isn’t a Blob - just the machinery of State grinding on.

    And that the Government are as surprised as we are at what happens.

    Going back to Gordon Brown - no one had any doubt he was in power as well as in office. He could do things - and used that power.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,425
    edited 12:16PM
    Clarence Mitchell is another defector who has been on a journey over the years...after leaving the BBC, went to Labour -> Tory -> Reform.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,345
    kle4 said:

    I am confused in the West Midlands police story why the Chief Constable thought it was a good defence initially to say they provided incorrect info due to incompetent google searching and not because of AI. Ok, it matters in terms of whether he was factual in his responses to the parliamentary committee, but it would still have a remarkable admission.

    It seems pretty obvious that they didn't want the Israeli fans there and needed the intelligence to justify it.

    The interesting thing is why the AI was so inaccurate and misrepresented what had happened in Amsterdam. It certainly wasn't relying on the Dutch police's own report. Instead there's a danger that it's just an amalgamation of what is generally been said about something. Incentivising bots to spread s*** and own the narrative.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,223

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    Meanwhile...

    Another Merseyside Reform UK defection just announced

    This time it is a St Helens councillor joining Nigel Farage's Party from the Greens...

    www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpo...


    https://bsky.app/profile/liamthorp.bsky.social/post/3mcevf3ippc2z
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjwgzwe2eyo

    "The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."

    Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.

    It’s almost as if her department didn’t do any research before changing the tax rates.

    How many times now has this government rowed back on decisions, alienating millions of people personally affected, wasting political capital on millions more, yet never actually raising the money promised.

    It’s been said a hundred times now, but they really should have just raised income tax and been done with it. At least people would have given them credit for being upfront and honest with the electorate.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,649
    There you go, people trying to talk up Kemi Badenoch. Today’s PMQs failure.
    She can’t think and react on her feet just as Sunak couldn’t, it’s a prepared line, and once that’s gone and she is asked about the Conservative record in government, she can’t rebut it and move it on to the more relevant present. Simples as that really.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 538

    That's a lot of councillors to defect in one week - I suppose that ReformUK have been storing them up to make a big news story following Zahawi's move. As some of you may know, I keep a tally of these things for the Liberal England website. If they carry on at this rate I am going to need a bigger spreadsheet for 2026......

    For anyone interested, here's my summary of the defections that took place during 2025.

    https://liberalengland.blogspot.com/2025/12/guest-post-local-councillors-changing.html

    Thanks for the link.

    Your list of those with more than eight defections doesn't have Broxtowe. iirc around twenty Lab types left to form an indie alliance.

    Sorry, yes, I really should have picked that up. The numbers are in my spreadsheet, but incorrectly flagged for analytical purposes.

    (Just think - if all those conspiracy theories about Bill Gates and Cvid vaccines were correct, I really would know how to do pivot tables by now.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,997
    "The government will commit to a new rail link between Birmingham and Manchester, reviving HS2’s northern phase in all but name.

    Sources earlier told ITV News that it will come as part of a multi-billion-pound infrastructure investment in the long-delayed Northern Powerhouse Rail project, with the plans expected to be announced on Wednesday.

    The chancellor will signal her intention to build a new rail line connecting Birmingham and Manchester - but only once other upgrades in the north have been completed.

    It could be decades until work on rail lines connecting Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield is completed."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-01-13/new-manchester-to-birmingham-rail-link-planned-but-its-not-hs2
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273

    kle4 said:

    I am confused in the West Midlands police story why the Chief Constable thought it was a good defence initially to say they provided incorrect info due to incompetent google searching and not because of AI. Ok, it matters in terms of whether he was factual in his responses to the parliamentary committee, but it would still have a remarkable admission.

    It seems pretty obvious that they didn't want the Israeli fans there and needed the intelligence to justify it.

    The interesting thing is why the AI was so inaccurate and misrepresented what had happened in Amsterdam. It certainly wasn't relying on the Dutch police's own report. Instead there's a danger that it's just an amalgamation of what is generally been said about something. Incentivising bots to spread s*** and own the narrative.
    They clearly started with “the Birmingham locals really don’t want a group of young Jews in town”, and tried to work backwards from there.

    The failure to admit to this sequence of events is what’s undermining everything else.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,997

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    Meanwhile...

    Another Merseyside Reform UK defection just announced

    This time it is a St Helens councillor joining Nigel Farage's Party from the Greens...

    www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpo...


    https://bsky.app/profile/liamthorp.bsky.social/post/3mcevf3ippc2z
    Have we ever had a Green to Reform defection before?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,425
    edited 12:29PM
    Andy_JS said:

    "The government will commit to a new rail link between Birmingham and Manchester, reviving HS2’s northern phase in all but name.

    Sources earlier told ITV News that it will come as part of a multi-billion-pound infrastructure investment in the long-delayed Northern Powerhouse Rail project, with the plans expected to be announced on Wednesday.

    The chancellor will signal her intention to build a new rail line connecting Birmingham and Manchester - but only once other upgrades in the north have been completed.

    It could be decades until work on rail lines connecting Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield is completed."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-01-13/new-manchester-to-birmingham-rail-link-planned-but-its-not-hs2

    In the same time we finally get to the end of dicking around with HS2 / NPR there will be a few 100kms of new rail, China will have constructed 75,000km of HS rail....and each km of construction costs I think something like 20% of the price and their HS runs will be running at 450+ km/h by then.

    When I went on their bullet trains, not only vastly superior to UK rolling stock, but you regularly saw all the new lines under construction.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,255

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjwgzwe2eyo

    "The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."

    Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.

    That's the problem. It was almost certainly not her decision in any meaningful sense, or at least not her policy. Rather she is just picking courses from the standard Treasury menu. If it had been policy, she might at least have known what the consequences are.
    I think its quite normal for ministers to ask their minions for ideas. The crucial issue is when you get such ideas in that a) you do your own thinking about these policies and b) you challenge your minions ideas for potential weakness / issues. It pretty clear that our customer service manager of a chancellor can't do these things.

    For all the critism of Brown (and led to his downfall as PM), he was famed for asking his minion I want more information again and again, I want to know more about what might happen if we do x or y. He was well extremely informed about what were the ins and outs of the budget decisions.
    The impression that Starmer & Co. give is that they are in office, but The System is in power.

    This isn’t a Blob - just the machinery of State grinding on.

    And that the Government are as surprised as we are at what happens.

    Going back to Gordon Brown - no one had any doubt he was in power as well as in office. He could do things - and used that power.
    Isn't this always the case. Turning the Great Ship of State in any other direction is hampered by the barnacles of years of existing legislation. Governments change but the legislation that drives The State is almost always unchanged.

    This is where Trump scores with a lot of people. JFDI and worry about the lawyers later. Thank goodness he has his moral compass (® G Brown) to guide him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgjwgzwe2eyo

    "The chancellor has said she is "particularly concerned" about the impact of business rates on pubs, as she hinted she was resisting calls for more support for the rest of the hospitality sector."

    Chancellor concerned about consequences of her own decisions.

    That's the problem. It was almost certainly not her decision in any meaningful sense, or at least not her policy. Rather she is just picking courses from the standard Treasury menu. If it had been policy, she might at least have known what the consequences are.
    It’s her job to push back on Treasury bollocks though.

    If she was that insufficiently prepared to live in No.11, she doesn’t deserve to continue to live there.

    (Yes please ignore the actual living arrangements of ministers, that’s not the intention of this debate)
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 538
    Andy_JS said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    Meanwhile...

    Another Merseyside Reform UK defection just announced

    This time it is a St Helens councillor joining Nigel Farage's Party from the Greens...

    www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpo...


    https://bsky.app/profile/liamthorp.bsky.social/post/3mcevf3ippc2z
    Have we ever had a Green to Reform defection before?
    Not in 2025, as far as my records are concerned. There were two Green to Conservative defections, though - one in Gloucestershire and one in Solihull.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,686

    There you go, people trying to talk up Kemi Badenoch. Today’s PMQs failure.
    She can’t think and react on her feet just as Sunak couldn’t, it’s a prepared line, and once that’s gone and she is asked about the Conservative record in government, she can’t rebut it and move it on to the more relevant present. Simples as that really.

    It was vaguely amusing that Starmer denied U-turns by saying he was turning the country round.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    @cathynewman is joining Sky News!

    The award-winning journalist will lead our flagship daily politics programme, launch a brand-new podcast, and deliver powerful investigations and documentaries.

    A new programme. A new voice. A new chapter for Sky News’s evening politics output

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2011392866426445861?s=20

    A brand new podcast. It seems like every media outlet is starting its own podcasts, and at the same time Netflix has signed up The Rest is Football for its World Cup coverage. That £1.5 million the BBC paid Lineker for a whole year might look cheap now.
    The podcast bubble will burst. People are paying too much money for podcasts when they are oversaturated and a pretty low bar to entry. We have seen this already with companies buying up popular YouTube channels thinking the "brand" is strong, but they make changes, increase advertising, the original creator often take more of a back seat and the views drop.
    I like a good podcast, but i only have so many hours in the day.
    Me too! I love 'Rest is History', 'We have ways' and 'Elis James and John Robins'. Add in some 'Uncanny' and there is a lot of content. Given I get about 3 h a week to listen (mainly car journeys without my son twice a week) - its not enough!
    The trick is discovering how fast you can play them – 1.25x for me (going faster needs more active listening even if gradually ratcheting the speed up; ymmv).
    Doesn't really work with the R3 podcasts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273
    edited 12:31PM

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
    I’m genuinely thinking of setting up a nonpartisan MP candidate vetting company ahead of the next election.

    Nonpartisan is the key, most of the people vetting candidates at the moment think they can forgive indiscretions because of political alignment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    Andy_JS said:

    "The government will commit to a new rail link between Birmingham and Manchester, reviving HS2’s northern phase in all but name.

    Sources earlier told ITV News that it will come as part of a multi-billion-pound infrastructure investment in the long-delayed Northern Powerhouse Rail project, with the plans expected to be announced on Wednesday.

    The chancellor will signal her intention to build a new rail line connecting Birmingham and Manchester - but only once other upgrades in the north have been completed.

    It could be decades until work on rail lines connecting Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield is completed."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-01-13/new-manchester-to-birmingham-rail-link-planned-but-its-not-hs2

    A £40bn project for which they are committing...
    £1bn.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268

    There you go, people trying to talk up Kemi Badenoch. Today’s PMQs failure.
    She can’t think and react on her feet just as Sunak couldn’t, it’s a prepared line, and once that’s gone and she is asked about the Conservative record in government, she can’t rebut it and move it on to the more relevant present. Simples as that really.

    It was vaguely amusing that Starmer denied U-turns by saying he was turning the country round.
    The world revolves around him ?
    Seems unlikely.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,098
    Sandpit said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
    I’m genuinely thinking of setting up a nonpartisan MP candidate vetting company ahead of the next election.

    Nonpartisan is the key, most of the people vetting candidates at the moment think they can forgive indiscretions because of political alignment.
    Good business model, but would be more plausible if set up by someone less partisan.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273
    Joe Rogan vs Rand Paul.

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/1uA2RRDBdTtp2uwZ4xhkwN

    See you all in a couple of hours!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,425
    The Japanese prime minister has called fresh elections less than three months after taking power.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/14/japanese-pm-performs-k-pop-hits-and-then-calls-an-election/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273

    Sandpit said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
    I’m genuinely thinking of setting up a nonpartisan MP candidate vetting company ahead of the next election.

    Nonpartisan is the key, most of the people vetting candidates at the moment think they can forgive indiscretions because of political alignment.
    Good business model, but would be more plausible if set up by someone less partisan.
    Let me vet the progressives, and I’ll happily hire a load of young progressives to vet the Reform candidates.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,425
    Jeffrey Epstein Was A TERRIBLE Investor... Why Did People Still Give Him Money?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XyslxsPLQ4
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273

    Jeffrey Epstein Was A TERRIBLE Investor... Why Did People Still Give Him Money?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XyslxsPLQ4

    Was it to do with the blackmail and the underage girls on the island?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,572

    Jeffrey Epstein Was A TERRIBLE Investor... Why Did People Still Give Him Money?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XyslxsPLQ4

    It seems to me there is a lot of stuff that went on under the radar here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,488
    Arsonist " particularly concerned" about the fire they started
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,473

    ‪Jennifer Williams‬
    @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social‬

    ID cards thing probably my biggest indication yet that the PM hasn’t watched enough yes minister

    https://bsky.app/profile/jenwilliamsft.bsky.social/post/3mcezmwsffk2n
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341

    Sandpit said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
    I’m genuinely thinking of setting up a nonpartisan MP candidate vetting company ahead of the next election.

    Nonpartisan is the key, most of the people vetting candidates at the moment think they can forgive indiscretions because of political alignment.
    Good business model, but would be more plausible if set up by someone less partisan.
    Finding someone nonpartisan interested in the job sounds challenging.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341
    edited 12:51PM
    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,273
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
    I’m genuinely thinking of setting up a nonpartisan MP candidate vetting company ahead of the next election.

    Nonpartisan is the key, most of the people vetting candidates at the moment think they can forgive indiscretions because of political alignment.
    Good business model, but would be more plausible if set up by someone less partisan.
    Finding someone nonpartisan interested in the job sounds challenging.
    You don’t want nonpartisans, you want political opponents doing the research.

    You want me finding the best way to paraphrase Zarah Sultana saying that the biggest problem with the murderous Iranian crackdown is Nethanyahu’s Israel and Trump’s America.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,098
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    I suppose he might assume that the Tories at least come pre-vetted?
    I’m genuinely thinking of setting up a nonpartisan MP candidate vetting company ahead of the next election.

    Nonpartisan is the key, most of the people vetting candidates at the moment think they can forgive indiscretions because of political alignment.
    Good business model, but would be more plausible if set up by someone less partisan.
    Finding someone nonpartisan interested in the job sounds challenging.
    You don’t want nonpartisans, you want political opponents doing the research.

    You want me finding the best way to paraphrase Zarah Sultana saying that the biggest problem with the murderous Iranian crackdown is Nethanyahu’s Israel and Trump’s America.
    No, you don't, because your paraphrase was obviously crap (as I'm sure Sultana's paraphrase of your comments would be too).

    You want people who are good investigators, who know their way around social media. Those are not necessarily political anoraks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,694
    edited 12:57PM

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    That will make nearly 975. Closing in on 1000.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,309
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    How much longer before the state police start to arrest ICE members for their crimes?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341


    ‪Jennifer Williams‬
    @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social‬

    ID cards thing probably my biggest indication yet that the PM hasn’t watched enough yes minister

    https://bsky.app/profile/jenwilliamsft.bsky.social/post/3mcezmwsffk2n

    Whitehall will never let it go.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,265

    HYUFD said:

    'Was chatting to a Reform source earlier today.

    They said morale in the party is “very low” among some members at the moment.

    When I asked why, they said: “Too many Tories. None of them signed up to Tories 2.”
    https://x.com/EPriceJourno/status/2011135357149200761?s=20

    Some of the above may head off to Advance with Tommy Robinson and Ben Habib and Restore with Rupert Lowe

    The 'People's Insurgency' that's run by a load of Tory retreads who spent 14 years getting us into this mess.

    The top quality required for government, with a top staff of hundreds to do it, is both the political skills in communicating and crafting a manifesto and day by day narrative + the rare executive skills to build and sustain the team that gets the whole operation done.

    I doubt if many party members have the tiniest idea what is involved.

    It is one thing (maybe the only thing) that Dominic Cummings gets right, though he appeared not to have any idea how to execute it.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    Sandpit said:

    Joe Rogan vs Rand Paul.

    https://open.spotify.com/episode/1uA2RRDBdTtp2uwZ4xhkwN

    See you all in a couple of hours!

    See Dr Johnson's remark about the order of precedence between a louse and a flea.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,275
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    How much longer before the state police start to arrest ICE members for their crimes?
    Or the FBI arresting state police for their non compliance with ICE crimes? I guess both would be brink of ACW II time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341
    MattW said:

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    That will make nearly 975. Closing in on 1000.
    Thought the Ashes was still going on and Head was still at bat for a second.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268

    Jeffrey Epstein Was A TERRIBLE Investor... Why Did People Still Give Him Money?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XyslxsPLQ4

    Money laundering is also a piss poor business if there is no crooked money to launder.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,694
    edited 1:10PM
    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    It's First Amendment Protected Speech to insult a police officer, anyway, even if he had done so. There have been Supreme Court cases setting precendent.

    It's the usual cop problem - undertrained and too sensitive. I saw a vid yesterday with leaked briefings suddenly being used to try and upskill ICE agents - but it was on Meidastouch who do about 47 videos per day so hard to find again.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_cop#:~:text=Several federal court decisions have,stop or arrest an individual.

    Several federal court decisions have found that expressing contempt for police officers is protected speech under the First Amendment. In City of Houston v. Hill (1987), the Supreme Court ruled that the First Amendment "protects a significant amount of verbal criticism and challenge directed at police officers." In Swartz v. Insogna (2013), the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled that extending the middle finger at an officer is not grounds to stop or arrest an individual.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    This isn't the police; it's immigration agents who do not have police powers regarding citizens.
    (And in this case, even if they were regular police, they'd still be well outside their powers.)

    And there are thousands of these agents, purposefully deployed in a relatively small US city so that such common interactions can have a disproportionate effect.

    The practical reality is that it is a campaign of both intimidation and provocation.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 399
    Andy_JS said:

    "The government will commit to a new rail link between Birmingham and Manchester, reviving HS2’s northern phase in all but name.

    Sources earlier told ITV News that it will come as part of a multi-billion-pound infrastructure investment in the long-delayed Northern Powerhouse Rail project, with the plans expected to be announced on Wednesday.

    The chancellor will signal her intention to build a new rail line connecting Birmingham and Manchester - but only once other upgrades in the north have been completed.

    It could be decades until work on rail lines connecting Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield is completed."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-01-13/new-manchester-to-birmingham-rail-link-planned-but-its-not-hs2

    Question for northern England train buffs, what is the best route for a High speed rail into Manchester, could it get in and out of Piccadilly easy enough, or would a separate terminal/Oak common set up be needed? Are the other cities easy to get high speed lines in and out of, or would they need to restrict the speed in urban areas?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    How much longer before the state police start to arrest ICE members for their crimes?
    I suspect that such a confrontation is one of the things the administration is hoping to provoke.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 952
    DoctorG said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The government will commit to a new rail link between Birmingham and Manchester, reviving HS2’s northern phase in all but name.

    Sources earlier told ITV News that it will come as part of a multi-billion-pound infrastructure investment in the long-delayed Northern Powerhouse Rail project, with the plans expected to be announced on Wednesday.

    The chancellor will signal her intention to build a new rail line connecting Birmingham and Manchester - but only once other upgrades in the north have been completed.

    It could be decades until work on rail lines connecting Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Sheffield is completed."

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-01-13/new-manchester-to-birmingham-rail-link-planned-but-its-not-hs2

    Question for northern England train buffs, what is the best route for a High speed rail into Manchester, could it get in and out of Piccadilly easy enough, or would a separate terminal/Oak common set up be needed? Are the other cities easy to get high speed lines in and out of, or would they need to restrict the speed in urban areas?
    Tunnel from just west of the airport, then either rise to a surface station around Ardwick (HS2 plans) or build a huge underground through station (preferred by Burnham) that continues on to Liverpool / Leeds connections.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,755


    ‪Jennifer Williams‬
    @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social‬

    ID cards thing probably my biggest indication yet that the PM hasn’t watched enough yes minister

    https://bsky.app/profile/jenwilliamsft.bsky.social/post/3mcezmwsffk2n

    One of the less surprising u turns. It was annoying all the right people but also a lot of the wrong people.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,309
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    This isn't the police; it's immigration agents who do not have police powers regarding citizens.
    (And in this case, even if they were regular police, they'd still be well outside their powers.)

    And there are thousands of these agents, purposefully deployed in a relatively small US city so that such common interactions can have a disproportionate effect.

    The practical reality is that it is a campaign of both intimidation and provocation.
    They see themselves as a counterinsurgency force, carrying out raids against a terrorist-supporting population. They behave as if US suburbs are West Belfast in 1973, or Basra in 2007.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    It's First Amendment Protected Speech to insult a police officer, anyway, even if he had done so. There have been Supreme Court cases setting precendent.

    It's the usual cop problem - undertrained and too sensitive. I saw a vid yesterday with leaked briefings suddenly being used to try and upskill ICE agents - but it was on Meidastouch who do about 47 videos per day so hard to find again.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_of_cop#:~:text=Several federal court decisions have,stop or arrest an individual.

    Several federal court decisions have found that expressing contempt for police officers is protected speech under the First Amendment. In City of Houston v. Hill (1987), the Supreme Court ruled that the First Amendment "protects a significant amount of verbal criticism and challenge directed at police officers." In Swartz v. Insogna (2013), the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled that extending the middle finger at an officer is not grounds to stop or arrest an individual.
    Of course.
    But I think it's slightly naive to think that the instigators of this policy are particularly bothered about the law.

    The training pays lip service to constitutional rights, but the message from above is "absolute immunity".

    I'm willing to bet this guy faces no criminal charges.

    A 21-year-old in Santa Ana was permanently blinded in one eye after a DHS agent fired a “less-lethal” round at close range. He underwent six hours of surgery to remove plastic, glass, and metal embedded in his face...
    https://x.com/TheWarMonitor/status/2011243359705448923
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,268
    One for history buffs.
    Is this plausible, @ydoethur ?
    (Setting aside the remarks about Henry VII's legitimacy.)

    Age of Invention: Tudor Trade War
    The true effects of Henry VII's "industrial policy"
    https://www.ageofinvention.xyz/p/age-of-invention-tudor-trade-war
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,235
    I think the American left should reclaim the “don’t tread on me” flag. It would be a powerful anti-ICE symbol.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,142

    Twenty more Tory councillor defections to Reform apparently this morning.

    Just becoming the New Tory Party rebrand basically.

    No idea why Farage thinks this will help.

    Sadly, I do.

    The Tory Party are the official Opposition.

    The Opposition are one step removed from being the Government.

    Being the New Tory Party helps to be the New Opposition which helps to be the Government.

    Whether they be ex-Tories or anyone else, even if they're only Tories, being able to say "I lead the effective Opposition" is helpful to winning elections.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,341
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    This isn't the police; it's immigration agents who do not have police powers regarding citizens.
    (And in this case, even if they were regular police, they'd still be well outside their powers.)

    And there are thousands of these agents, purposefully deployed in a relatively small US city so that such common interactions can have a disproportionate effect.

    The practical reality is that it is a campaign of both intimidation and provocation.
    Surprised they haven't been rebranded as the Trump police.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,709
    Nigelb said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.

    I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
    Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?

    Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
    I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)

    That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
    From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.

    All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.


    If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
    A lot depends on how these figures are calculated. If a company's head office is in London, is the GDP allocated there even when the company earns elsewhere for example.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,709
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    This isn't the police; it's immigration agents who do not have police powers regarding citizens.
    (And in this case, even if they were regular police, they'd still be well outside their powers.)

    And there are thousands of these agents, purposefully deployed in a relatively small US city so that such common interactions can have a disproportionate effect.

    The practical reality is that it is a campaign of both intimidation and provocation.
    They see themselves as a counterinsurgency force, carrying out raids against a terrorist-supporting population. They behave as if US suburbs are West Belfast in 1973, or Basra in 2007.
    Or Tehran 2026...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,235
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.

    I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
    Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?

    Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
    I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)

    That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
    From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.

    All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.


    If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
    A lot depends on how these figures are calculated. If a company's head office is in London, is the GDP allocated there even when the company earns elsewhere for example.
    See GSK. I wonder if their Barnard Castle site contributes to London GDP or County Durham GDP.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 27,142
    Comparing non-capital regions to countries is a completely false comparison due to the fact capitals distort the data due to HQs etc being registered there and accounting there.

    Hence BS comparisons like the North is poorer than Eastern European nations by looking at their average data including their capital.

    You can't compare the North West of England to Poland (including Warsaw), you can compare London to Warsaw, or you can compare regions in England to regions in Poland (excluding Warsaw).

    Always compare like-for-like.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,542
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sort of report is becoming increasingly common.
    If any member of the public had used such threatening language against ICE, they would seriously risk being shot.

    ICE agents in Minneapolis violently detained, threatened, and arrested a U.S. citizen for one reason only, he refused to prove his citizenship.

    In the video, agents immediately escalate to physical force. A man stands with his hands up, repeatedly saying, “I’m not doing anything,” while agents shove him, force him against his car, and begin an illegal search.

    No crime. No warrant. No probable cause.

    An agent falsely claims, “That’s assault,” while they are actively assaulting a U.S. citizen who is complying and not resisting.

    Moments later, the agent admits the truth, saying, “And all we needed was your ID,” openly acknowledging this was an unlawful detention based solely on a refusal to produce identification.

    That is not legal.

    The short agent then threatens, “Don’t move or you will be fucking tased.”

    The man calmly responds, “I’m not moving.”

    The short agent escalates again, snarling, “You’re a fucking bitch, and you’re going to learn the hard way.”

    That is a direct threat of violence against a U.S. citizen whose hands are already behind his back.

    They dig through his pockets anyway, repeating, “I just asked you for an ID,” as if that excuses violating the Fourth Amendment.

    Then, in a moment that exposes the entire operation, the short agent announces, “He has a gun on him! Wouldn’t you look at that.”

    As if Minnesota is not a conceal-carry state.

    The man immediately responds, “A fully registered firearm. Because I’m a U.S. citizen.”

    The short agent casually tosses the firearm onto the car after removing the magazine, demonstrating reckless handling of a legally owned weapon.

    By this point, they have removed his wallet, yet, still do not check his ID, and still continue the arrest.

    The man states the obvious, “Unlawful arrest.”

    The short agent replies, “We’ll see about that.”..

    https://x.com/TheJFreakinC/status/2011130471481065497

    There are situations where you have to comply and not doing so can be an offense i believe. The big problem is police (not just US police) act as though failure to obey them is unacceptable in all circumstances, even if they give unlawful or contradictory commands. And will get violent.

    And that the practical reality is if you object you may be assaulted or shot, and if you are lucky can challenge them legally later (before the SC says police are above the law), meaning for your safety you should do what they say even if they are unlawful, only makes it worse.
    This isn't the police; it's immigration agents who do not have police powers regarding citizens.
    (And in this case, even if they were regular police, they'd still be well outside their powers.)

    And there are thousands of these agents, purposefully deployed in a relatively small US city so that such common interactions can have a disproportionate effect.

    The practical reality is that it is a campaign of both intimidation and provocation.
    Surprised they haven't been rebranded as the Trump police.
    Porcs has been suggested as a name for them
  • eekeek Posts: 32,276
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems highly implausible to me that the vote share for centre right/right parties in Wales will be lower in May than it was in 2024.

    If the Conservatives poll as little as 10%, Reform will win 30%+. If Reform poll as low as 23%, the Conservatives will be close to 20%.

    Tactically it's quite a nice poll for Reform - it would galvanise their support if people thought this would be the outcome.

    I do struggle to take Yougov seriously these days. I guess we'll see...
    Are YouGov oversampling insurgency?

    Plaid here, and Reform nationally.
    I thought Plaid Cymru would win the Caerphilly by-election but I was shocked that turnout was higher than in the actual devolved election (the polls had Reform winning.)

    That might be an outlier or an actual harbinger of people voting to stop Reform winning, May will give us a better idea but there could a paradox that right now Reform are simultaneously the country's most popular and unpopular party.
    From Casino's link earlier. You could improve r/Britain's GDP significantly by getting rid of Northern Ireland (GDP 74th in the world), Wales (GDP 62nd) and Scotland (GDP 49th). Bundling the North East (GDP 69th) with Scotland would give an extra boost.

    All these regions sucking the life out of the Britain.


    If the UK properly invested in its regions, it would go a great deal better. It's London which sucks the life out of the rest of Britain, I think.
    A lot depends on how these figures are calculated. If a company's head office is in London, is the GDP allocated there even when the company earns elsewhere for example.
    See GSK. I wonder if their Barnard Castle site contributes to London GDP or County Durham GDP.
    Barnard Castle? I can't see that myself.

    I'll get my coat...
    That is a joke that refuses to die. Both Andy Parsons and Chris Ramsey made it in their recent comedy shows in Barnie
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,694
    Two commentaries touching on the situation in Minneapolis. Both are probably better listens whilst doing something else:

    Fairly long live session from a retired Pastor (church planter) who has been there for about 30 years, and has been arguing against the MAGA White Evangelical position for a number of years. 90 minutes:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybHcm1E29_c

    Heather Cox Richardson, historian, talking about the US Government strategy of "pre-intimidation". About 40 minutes.
    https://youtu.be/QsG5DcBwpGI?t=37
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,686

    Jeffrey Epstein Was A TERRIBLE Investor... Why Did People Still Give Him Money?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XyslxsPLQ4

    From that video:-
Sign In or Register to comment.