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A 10/1 and a 6/1 tip to start your new year – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,632
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
  • dixiedean said:

    Does anyone know Portuguese?

    "Eu ando por todo o lado, e bebo como um desalmado"

    I'm going to walk from Lisbon to Santiago next year

    In Chile?
    The Galician one that has Caminos

    If I can just learn how to say the new motto..
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,525
    The plebs Traitors is nowhere near as engrossing as the sleb one.
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    To be honest, that looks hideous.

    I hope it tastes better than it looks.
    Yes, normally I'm quite jealous of the food photos that are posted..but that looks like a calorie overload..🥴
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,966
    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    A new career awaits.

    https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/careers/roles/catering-services-rating
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,283

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
    Ask yourself what your opponent doesn't want you to do. In the case of China I don't think they want the US to support Ukraine and defeat Russia. That does create opportunities for them but a Russia that is no longer a bulwark against the west leaves China isolated.
  • Who in the world has two foreign language, idiomatic, rhyming, self invented so original, holiday mottos?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,586
    Dura_Ace said:


    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.

    "Mr. Kellogg’s feelings about the Russians had been forged in the depths of the Cold War. Serving in U.S. Special Forces, he had led a Green Light team, soldiers trained to parachute behind Soviet lines with tactical nuclear weapons strapped between their legs. He also harbored a suspicion that the Russians had once tried to kill him. In 2000, while on the Army staff at the Pentagon, he had just left an event at the Russian embassy when he felt a sharp pain in his right elbow. Later, at dinner with friends, his wife noticed the swelling. The next day, he was rushed to the hospital, where doctors nearly had to amputate his arm to keep a staph infection from spreading."

    Bloody hell, would the Russians have really tried to kill him in Washington DC? It's not like he was a major player, was he?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,274
    edited January 1
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    A new career awaits.

    https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/careers/roles/catering-services-rating
    You can tell who is the PO in the header photo. Edit: and not just the rank badge.

    I'm obscurely reminded of my father's tales of when his ship was in Pompey at holiday time when the rest of the crew were given just enough leave to go home if they lived somewhere godforsaken but easy like Tooting or Gosport. The residue from Scotland, Isle of Man, etc. had to stay on board but were given extra good meals by the remaining hash-slingers who felt it was in their own interests to do their best.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,106
    edited January 1
    Taz said:

    Oh god, we’re watching the fucking Traitors, I’d sooner listen to Keir Starmer talk about his Dads career.

    Simpsons Movie, Channel E4.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,525

    Taz said:

    Oh god, we’re watching the fucking Traitors, I’d sooner listen to Keir Starmer talk about his Dads career.

    Simpsons Movie, Channel E4.
    Sadly wife and mother in law want to watch it.

    I’m off to bed to watch the darts.
  • I told both Google AI and Grok about when I stayed in Gan. In the morning I walked to Lourdes and crossed the river Neez. Not long after I walked past an apiary; I saw the Neez Bees

    Both of the AIs got the (real life) joke immediately, and told me how clever I was to make it at that moment (which I shared on PB)

    I reckon that's quite good AI, to get the sound of a nonsensical Spoonerism of the Bees Knees
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,472
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    I assume the author plus at least one person at the publishers did.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,793
    You’re the ones who demanded photos when I talked about venison curry the other day.

    I am sure I have told you I am the only living man who has ever burned a salad.

    Yes, really.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    ydoethur said:

    You’re the ones who demanded photos when I talked about venison curry the other day.

    I am sure I have told you I am the only living man who has ever burned a salad.

    Yes, really.

    My wife has burned soup.
    Several times.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,632
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    I haven't read that one yet. Gosh, it was published in 2011, I didn't realise I was so far behind.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,766

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    I assume the author plus at least one person at the publishers did.
    Look at you, mister pre-LLM.... ;-)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    Finally got around to seeing the F1 movie.

    It's odd.
    Both deeply ludicrous, and at the same time, strangely credible.

    So a bit like F1.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,858
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    That's a really good series. I still use it today when teaching the Cold War, especially the episodes on Berlin (1948/61) Korea and Cuba.
    The one on the break up of Yugoslavia that was broadcast in 1995 is excellent as well.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited January 1
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Vance is just an arse.
    That's all.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited January 1

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
    I think there are two reasonable self-interested positions for the United States on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One is to see it as an attack on liberal democracy and the rule of law and therefore an attack on American hegemony. The US in this case should directly support Ukraine against Russia.

    The other is to decide Europe is not our circus, not our monkeys. Europe can sort out the Ukraine mess itself. China is the US' biggest threat so it focuses its efforts there. The US supports the Europeans diplomatically and with intelligence but isn't otherwise involved.

    Undermining its erstwhile allies for no benefit to itself is not in the US interest in my view.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,074
    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    I hope this is true.

    ..On December 27, 2025, numerous media outlets—Ukrainian, Russian, and international sources (e.g., Wikipedia, Euromaidan Press, Kyiv Independent, Russian propaganda channels)—reported the death of the commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Denis Kapustin (also known as Denis Nikitin or White Rex). He was reportedly killed in combat in the Zaporizhzhia region by a Russian FPV drone attack. The RDK itself initially confirmed this in an official statement.

    Today, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (GUR) released a video in which Kyrylo Budanov (head of the GUR) personally greets Denis Kapustin with the words, "Congratulations on your return!" and congratulates him and the GUR team.

    According to the official statement from the GUR (Ukrainian Special Forces), this was a planned disinformation operation, prepared over a month in advance:

    - Russian special services had offered a reward of $500,000 for the assassination of Kapustin (Kapustin is considered a terrorist in Russia and has been sentenced to life imprisonment multiple times in absentia).

    - The GUR team (under the command of "Timur") successfully deceived the Russians, staged the assassination, and collected the money. 😂😂😂

    - Kapustin is alive, safe in Ukraine, and preparing for further operations.

    - The identities of the Russian masterminds and executors were revealed.

    Budanov praised the operation as a complete success: The Russian services were "fooled," and the money received will now be used to strengthen Ukrainian special forces...

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2006715072047976774
  • I've done this a few times; have I found any fans of the Joy Of Cooking?

    Yatata
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9W0kG138IA
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,197
    edited January 1
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    Yes, @rcs1000. Me, @viewcode . Years ago. It's one of the better of his (China Mieville) standalone novels, although I think his best remains "The City And The City" in that regard. I remember liking it (Embassytown) but for the life of me I can't remember why.

    Pause

    This is probably not as helpful as you wanted. Still, here's a quick BookTube review by a woman in skull pyjamas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KyXbqQF9WA
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,005
    dixiedean said:

    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.

    Spoiler.

    I am the Secret Traitor.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited January 1
    .
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Vance is just an arse.
    That's all.
    An interesting party game is to identify if there's anything, anything at all, that JD Vance, dogmatist always willing to share an opinion, actually believes in, unless it's to progress his career.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,005
    Taz said:

    The plebs Traitors is nowhere near as engrossing as the sleb one.

    Nah.

    But Slebs + Secret Traitor will be fun!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,096

    dixiedean said:

    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.

    Spoiler.

    I am the Secret Traitor.
    Are you a Reform politician?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,644
    edited January 1
    dixiedean said:

    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.

    Watching it for the first time to see what all the fuss is about. I think I've sussed who the secret traitor is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,577
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,359
    Things appear to be kicking off in Iran

    That might inter alia be good news for Ukraine
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,197
    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_War_(TV_series)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,110
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
    ...or a new 3 piece suite...
  • Scott_xP said:

    Things appear to be kicking off in Iran

    That might inter alia be good news for Ukraine

    And the world.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,793

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
    ...or a new 3 piece suite...
    If couched in an acceptable way perhaps.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,775
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    Yes, @rcs1000. Me, @viewcode . Years ago. It's one of the better of his (China Mieville) standalone novels, although I think his best remains "The City And The City" in that regard. I remember liking it (Embassytown) but for the life of me I can't remember why.

    Pause

    This is probably not as helpful as you wanted. Still, here's a quick BookTube review by a woman in skull pyjamas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KyXbqQF9WA
    I loved Perdido Street Station, really liked The Scar, and loved the premise of The City and The City, but felt it didn't quite achieve its potential as a novel.

    I got bored with Iron Council.

    I can't decide on Railsea or Embassytown next.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,775

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
    Ask yourself what your opponent doesn't want you to do. In the case of China I don't think they want the US to support Ukraine and defeat Russia. That does create opportunities for them but a Russia that is no longer a bulwark against the west leaves China isolated.
    I think this is the key point.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,793
    In the least surprising news ever, Usman Khawaja has announced he will be retiring after the Sydney Test.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown?

    Yes, @rcs1000. Me, @viewcode . Years ago. It's one of the better of his (China Mieville) standalone novels, although I think his best remains "The City And The City" in that regard. I remember liking it (Embassytown) but for the life of me I can't remember why.

    Pause

    This is probably not as helpful as you wanted. Still, here's a quick BookTube review by a woman in skull pyjamas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KyXbqQF9WA
    Embassytown is pretty good.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,778
    edited January 1

    I notice the Guardian has chose this moment to publish a piece by the Iranian foreign minister. I wonder if they will give a right of reply to an Iranian dissident.

    The Iranian FM's call to the West to engage with Iran might suddenly be topical, but not necessarily in the way his regime would like.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/30/iran-donald-trump-real-talks-both-win

    To your point, I should add I doubt many dissidents would disagree with his argument.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,068
    ydoethur said:

    In the least surprising news ever, Usman Khawaja has announced he will be retiring after the Sydney Test.

    As the current series has been disappointingly short, I've been trying to watch highlights of the 2010/11 series on YouTube. The available vids aren't great, annoyingly jumping large segments.
    Overall impression is that the standard of test batting has deteriorated dramatically in 15 years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,923
    Great 1st episode of the Traitors.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,110
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
    ...or a new 3 piece suite...
    If couched in an acceptable way perhaps.
    Sofa so good.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,005

    dixiedean said:

    Traitors is absolutely brilliant again.
    Secret Traitor is a super addition.
    And Roxy and Jade are gorgeous.

    Spoiler.

    I am the Secret Traitor.
    Are you a Reform politician?
    Only if you are watching in Wales.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,005
    Still plenty unknown about the Secret Traitor.

    It will be great if they exposed in the banishment. "I am- and always have been - a traitor" as the Traitors' jaws drop. But then - does Claudia get to pick a replacement from amongst the Faithful? (Secret Traitor - or die...)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,154
    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).
  • I've resolved to look right again
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,110
    edited January 1

    I've resolved to look right again

    After looking right, then left?

    Before crossing the road?

  • I've resolved to look right again

    I’m only a little drunk, but I don’t remember typing this or have any idea what it was meant to mean. It’s time for bed..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,223
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    JD Vance is not correct. His policy on Ukraine, Russia and Europe generally serves no purpose except he takes pleasure in humiliating Europeans. At least Trump is transactional. He and his family expect to make a lot of money out of Russia.

    I wouldn't say the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a win for China. It wasn't what they wanted but they have so far avoided being dragged into it.
    Yes, Vance has a real hillbilly sized chip on his shoulder when dealing with Europeans. He is jealous of a class above him, which may be why he got on so well with Lammy. Vance doesn't see Lammy as part of that European elite, and I think Lammy has a similar chip on his shoulder.

    Vance is a chameleon in human form, a sort of Talented Mr Ripley. I think he is even more susceptible to flattery than Trump. Getting him onside is probably mostly a matter of getting him some red carpet type treatment next time he comes here.
    Above all, try to persuade Vance that Ukraine is where white people originate from.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,775
    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    I suspect @Leon will be back...

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,966
    MaxPB said:

    I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year

    windsor_davies.png

  • Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year

    windsor_davies.png

    If that’s a joke from you, it’ll only work if it’s peashooters fucking up Russian tanks
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,624
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    I suspect @Leon will be back...

    You’re assuming that he’s not back already.

    You could be an LLM run by @Leon…
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,695
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    I suspect @Leon will be back...

    Yet the village has been demonstrably better off without its twat.

    The site runs from full-on 1980s style Tory to full-on 1980s style Labour, with a healthy dose of Scots nationalism thrown in for good measure. It’s a sign of the times that all of this can be dismissed as centrist; if Max is in want of extremist bile, he won’t find the rest of the internet lacking in places to partake.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,482

    I just had a very interesting discussion with Grok about my upcoming walk down the west of France. It gave me plenty of useful looking advice, similar to a recent chat with Google AI

    I told it my holiday motto*, and that I like to drink beer while walking. It gave me a whole load more advice, centred around beer. And a cracking suggestion: put that motto on a T-shirt; people might buy you beer

    Well done Grok. All of my T-shirts will say that!

    *Je marche partout, et je bois comme un trou. In case you didn’t know

    I hope Grok said that.

    ChatGPT was entirely incapable of creating a ribald limerick about Blow Job Bob earlier. It was like bloody Youtube's maiden aunt, and the limericks did not even scan.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,482
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Venison and chicken curry:


    Also with rice, chips, Peshwari naan and mango chutney.

    Is there a particular reason for the combination of meats?
    I had a chicken breast left over that I didn’t know what to do with.
    God that's carby.

    I had a lamb rigatoni via Hello Fresh, plus a chicken breast on the side and very pleasant balsamic red cabbage, and I take their amount of pasta, make 3 meals out of 2, and still reduce it some more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Happy New Year Max, and I'll be genuinely glad to see you back around.

    But the "boring centrist censorship" schtick ?
    You can do better than that crap.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,145
    edited January 1
    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Funny, I always saw Southam Observer as the ultimate centrist dad, now I discover he was ‘actual left’.
    I recollect he was quite a Starmer fan, it’d be interesting to see where he is now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,923
    Happy New Year everyone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    Shame that the fix was in.

    “Did you believe you had sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction against Donald Trump for interference with the lawful transfer of power?”

    JACK SMITH: “Yes.”

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2006495840769290699
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,095
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Happy New Year Max, and I'll be genuinely glad to see you back around.

    But the "boring centrist censorship" schtick ?
    You can do better than that crap.
    Centrists have it worse than anyone, hated by left and right.

    Fortunately we have our smugness to see us through it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,197
    edited January 1
    MaxPB said:

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA....

    OK I'll bite: do you have any examples?
    MaxPB said:

    Along with... and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get...

    This sentence fragment has two opposing meanings. Which of the following did you mean?
    • i) Contributions from left-wing people who give as good as they get drown out the discourse, leading to a lack of diversity, or
    • ii) Contributions from left-wing people who give as good as they get are lacking, leading to a lack of diversity
    PS don't go. I need somebody to patronise because they think Ed Miliband is a Communist, and if you go there won't be enough left... :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,095
    edited January 1
    Nigelb said:

    Shame that the fix was in.

    “Did you believe you had sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction against Donald Trump for interference with the lawful transfer of power?”

    JACK SMITH: “Yes.”

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2006495840769290699

    He actually seemed to move pretty quickly, as these things go, once he was appointed, but it took way too long to do so.
  • MattW said:

    I just had a very interesting discussion with Grok about my upcoming walk down the west of France. It gave me plenty of useful looking advice, similar to a recent chat with Google AI

    I told it my holiday motto*, and that I like to drink beer while walking. It gave me a whole load more advice, centred around beer. And a cracking suggestion: put that motto on a T-shirt; people might buy you beer

    Well done Grok. All of my T-shirts will say that!

    *Je marche partout, et je bois comme un trou. In case you didn’t know

    I hope Grok said that.

    ChatGPT was entirely incapable of creating a ribald limerick about Blow Job Bob earlier. It was like bloody Youtube's maiden aunt, and the limericks did not even scan.
    I shit you not. Grok said it should be a t-shirt, and I heartily agree
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,106
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Happy New Year Max, and I'll be genuinely glad to see you back around.

    But the "boring centrist censorship" schtick ?
    You can do better than that crap.
    Is "centrist" code for "people I don't agree with"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,339

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Funny, I always saw Southam Observer as the ultimate centrist dad, now I discover he was ‘actual left’.
    I recollect he was quite a Starmer fan, it’d be interesting to see where he is now.

    Incredibly, someone has written a serious repost to @MaxPB before his pixels were even dry:

    https://bristoliver.substack.com/p/in-defence-of-centrism
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Shame that the fix was in.

    “Did you believe you had sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction against Donald Trump for interference with the lawful transfer of power?”

    JACK SMITH: “Yes.”

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2006495840769290699

    He actually seemed to move pretty quickly, as these things go, once he was appointed, but it took way too long to do so.
    Smith was, and remains excellent.
    It's simply that the capacity to legally stall, and the fact that Judge Cannon was utterly corrupt, made a successful prosecution impossible.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,284

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Funny, I always saw Southam Observer as the ultimate centrist dad, now I discover he was ‘actual left’.
    I recollect he was quite a Starmer fan, it’d be interesting to see where he is now.
    He’s at the ‘if they’re losing people like me’ stage of self importance
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,482

    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    There is another excellent long article for SMO enthusiasts in the NYT this morning - available via the paywall busting technology of your choice.



    It's doesn't tell much that seasoned observers of matters in the Donyetskiy Bassein didn't already know but it's well written and entertaining.

    - Hegseth is a craven fucking bootlicker who just wants to please Trump even when it's not apparent what exactly would please Trump.
    - Kellog is a cold war dinosaur who should have been pensioned off and let nowhere near the SMO. I didn't know the Russians had tried to assassinate him at an embassy dinner with a lethal injection. Fucking LOL.
    - Zelenskiy, as we already know, doesn't listen to anybody and sporadically fucks himself and by extension Ukraine by not doing so.
    - All of Trump's court eunuchs (Lutnick, that lanky cum stain Jared, etc.) run independent and competing foreign policies.
    - Trump is Trump.
    - The only person who seems to have a clear eyed strategy in the whole farrago is Just Dance. He thinks aiding Ukraine only helps Europe and is a complete misallocation of resources that should be going to the Pacific. He's probably right in strictly instrumental terms.

    Is the JD view correct? Because right now, the only winner from the Ukraine war is China, which is increasingly reducing Russia to vassal status
    If you argue that the Europeans are insular and unreliable allies then it's arguable, in that the US wouldn't expect any help from the Europeans in the Pacific either way and so fuck 'em.

    But I tend to think that helping Ukraine to win would (a) create a new ally in Ukraine who could help the US in the future and, (b) free up Britain, at least, from the worries of European defence to help the US in the Pacific. Plus generally build confidence in democracies that they can stand up to dictatorships and win.

    Maybe (b) is not so much a factor, because Britain's aircraft carriers aren't much use defending against Russia, so they will be available to become a missile target in the Pacific either way for all the good that will achieve.

    I think the most important benefit of a Ukrainian victory with US assistance would be that it would create deterrence value against China attacking Taiwan. That even makes a case for the US air force intervening directly in the Ukraine War to achieve a rapid victory.
    I expect that Taiwan have been talking to Ukraine about sea drones for some time now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,858
    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/comment-paul-ovenden-whitehall-alaa-abd-el-fattah-keir-starmer-labour-government-l6hg0sck3

    Keir Starmer's former No 10 Director of Strategy has hit out at the "Stakeholder State"

    He says Civil Servants mentioned the case of Alaa Abd el-Fattah with "such regularity" that it became a "running joke" inside No 10 about Whitehall's "sheer weirdness"

    "We are only seeing a tiny part of it. Like an iceberg, the vast mass remains hidden from view, buttressed in silence"

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    .

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Happy New Year Max, and I'll be genuinely glad to see you back around.

    But the "boring centrist censorship" schtick ?
    You can do better than that crap.
    Is "centrist" code for "people I don't agree with"?
    Oh, I'm fine with that - I'm happy to return the insult in kind, or just ignore it.
    It's the "censorship" schtick which is tedious.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,624

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/comment-paul-ovenden-whitehall-alaa-abd-el-fattah-keir-starmer-labour-government-l6hg0sck3

    Keir Starmer's former No 10 Director of Strategy has hit out at the "Stakeholder State"

    He says Civil Servants mentioned the case of Alaa Abd el-Fattah with "such regularity" that it became a "running joke" inside No 10 about Whitehall's "sheer weirdness"

    "We are only seeing a tiny part of it. Like an iceberg, the vast mass remains hidden from view, buttressed in silence"

    What next for Stamerville?

    “Liz Truss was right”????!!!???
  • There isn’t a better song about cured meat than Cold Bologna by the Isley Brothers

    https://youtu.be/-egMduicE3A
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,095
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Shame that the fix was in.

    “Did you believe you had sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction against Donald Trump for interference with the lawful transfer of power?”

    JACK SMITH: “Yes.”

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2006495840769290699

    He actually seemed to move pretty quickly, as these things go, once he was appointed, but it took way too long to do so.
    Smith was, and remains excellent.
    It's simply that the capacity to legally stall, and the fact that Judge Cannon was utterly corrupt, made a successful prosecution impossible.
    The transfer of power case was before a DC judge who was moving things along at a fair clip, aided by Smith only charging Trump (unlike the Georgia prosecutors) though the Supreme Court nixed most of it by declaring even most things not connected to presidential acts immune. But IIRC the case had to go back to the DC judge to consider in light of that judgement, so something would have likely moved forward.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,824
    Stuff is certainly going on in Iran.
    Will it be enough to overturn the regime, though ?

    I hope so, even if that would bring its own risks.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,766
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    I watched the first of a twenty four part series about the Iron Curtain earlier. It was on the BBC in 1998, and narrated by Kenneth Branagh. One thing that struck me immediately was the use of the past tense to describe what had happened, rather than the modern trend of using the present, which I find really irritating

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_War_(TV_series)
    There is a quite good 'of the moment' Timewatch episode just called "A Cold War" from 1991. Worth tracking down for it's version of history right as the Soviet empire was collapsing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,095
    Nigelb said:

    Stuff is certainly going on in Iran.
    Will it be enough to overturn the regime, though ?

    I hope so, even if that would bring its own risks.

    Many regimes have just enough strength to get by, and when they reach a tipping point of odiousness that pushes things over the edge they collapse, for better or worse. Unfortuantely there's also a lot of genuinely strong odious regimes in the world - which also assist each other whatever their disparate ideologicical pretexts - with sufficient control or base level support to continue on with no clear end, who can sadly weather many storms.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,482
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Shame that the fix was in.

    “Did you believe you had sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction against Donald Trump for interference with the lawful transfer of power?”

    JACK SMITH: “Yes.”

    https://x.com/TheTNHoller/status/2006495840769290699

    He actually seemed to move pretty quickly, as these things go, once he was appointed, but it took way too long to do so.
    Smith was, and remains excellent.
    It's simply that the capacity to legally stall, and the fact that Judge Cannon was utterly corrupt, made a successful prosecution impossible.
    The transfer of power case was before a DC judge who was moving things along at a fair clip, aided by Smith only charging Trump (unlike the Georgia prosecutors) though the Supreme Court nixed most of it by declaring even most things not connected to presidential acts immune. But IIRC the case had to go back to the DC judge to consider in light of that judgement, so something would have likely moved forward.
    If the Dems get back in, Jack Smith is a possible shout for Attorney General. The DoJ will need some fundamental reforms, having been thoroughly politicised / corrupted. Smith has wide experience, including 5 years at the ICC on investigations and prosecuting war crimes concerning Kosovo.

    The DOJ have lost a large chunk - thousands - of their experienced attorneys.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,197

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/comment-paul-ovenden-whitehall-alaa-abd-el-fattah-keir-starmer-labour-government-l6hg0sck3

    Keir Starmer's former No 10 Director of Strategy has hit out at the "Stakeholder State"

    He says Civil Servants mentioned the case of Alaa Abd el-Fattah with "such regularity" that it became a "running joke" inside No 10 about Whitehall's "sheer weirdness"

    "We are only seeing a tiny part of it. Like an iceberg, the vast mass remains hidden from view, buttressed in silence"

    "...The...question this raises is how a government elected on a vast parliamentary majority, at a time of mounting public impatience, with fundamental problems to fix, allows itself to become distracted by this sort of political folderol....[The answer is] What we are witnessing is...the supremacy of the Stakeholder State. The Stakeholder State is not a single phenomenon. Instead, it is the...shift of politics and power away from voters and towards groups with the time, money and institutional access to make themselves too important to ignore..."

    Shades of @Malmesbury 's Process State :(
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,095
    edited January 1
    viewcode said:

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/comment-paul-ovenden-whitehall-alaa-abd-el-fattah-keir-starmer-labour-government-l6hg0sck3

    Keir Starmer's former No 10 Director of Strategy has hit out at the "Stakeholder State"

    He says Civil Servants mentioned the case of Alaa Abd el-Fattah with "such regularity" that it became a "running joke" inside No 10 about Whitehall's "sheer weirdness"

    "We are only seeing a tiny part of it. Like an iceberg, the vast mass remains hidden from view, buttressed in silence"

    "...The...question this raises is how a government elected on a vast parliamentary majority, at a time of mounting public impatience, with fundamental problems to fix, allows itself to become distracted by this sort of political folderol....[The answer is] What we are witnessing is...the supremacy of the Stakeholder State. The Stakeholder State is not a single phenomenon. Instead, it is the...shift of politics and power away from voters and towards groups with the time, money and institutional access to make themselves too important to ignore..."

    Shades of @Malmesbury 's Process State :(
    There is something in it, a lot of our processes hold up decision-making a little too much I think, and we certainly incentivize those with the time, energy, and access to moan the most, though I think it's a bit weird for any politician to complain when they set up that kind of approach, and also it probably isn't a simple fix, since it is a matter of rebalancing rather than just going back in time to a point when there were fewer obstacles to unfettered discretion of ministers or whatever.

    Shit, that was pretty centrist of me, wasn't it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,339
    This:


    Ruth Deyermond ‪@ruthdeyermond.bsky.social‬

    It's New Year, so time to look back and forward. These are 10 things I think we need to recognise in 2026.


    ‪Ruth Deyermond‬ @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social‬

    1. Russia isn’t winning in Ukraine.


    If your military capacity relies on DPRK and Iran, and you've turned yourself into a dependent of China, you’re not a great power.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ruthdeyermond.bsky.social/post/3mbetvcokp22t

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,969

    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Happy new year everyone! Hope 2026 is better than 2025. I think I'll be posting a lot less over the next year, this place isn't the same without some of the characters we've lost. I've realised that PB has simply become a haven of "centrist dad" opinion and we've lost actual left and right wing commenters like @SouthamObserver, @Leon and others either to apathy or bans and it's the debate is worse for it overall. As a result the quality of understanding of how the nation is actually thinking has declined drastically.

    I used to see PB as a barometer of how the nation was feeling and it was a fairly reliable leading indicator and we had people who campaigned on the ground giving their honest view of how things were going, now it's not like that and all we've ended up with is overwhelming number of "centrist" posters drowning out how the 80% who aren't in the centre are thinking and feeling.

    Along with what seems like an overly harsh interpretation of the consequences of the OSA and a lack of diverse opinions from particularly left wingers who give as good as they get this place isn't what it used to be. The robustness and the honesty has been replaced by boring centrists who enforce censorship on the rest of us.

    I'll still be around and may even come up with a header or two if Robert is happy to put them up but it won't be as much as 2025. Life, kids, a new job, moving house, my wife is going back to work, we're talking about number four(!) are my priorities for the year and I think with all that and it not being an election year means my focus is just going to be elsewhere. I hope that everyone else on PB is able to take a step back too and realise that whatever is happening in Westminster, Washington or anywhere else - family and the people around us are more important.

    With that I'll return to our Mexican adventure (which is less than ideal with a baby under one!).

    Happy New Year Max, and I'll be genuinely glad to see you back around.

    But the "boring centrist censorship" schtick ?
    You can do better than that crap.
    Is "centrist" code for "people I don't agree with"?
    Think of it as a normal distribution. When you're the sort of person who thinks there is a grand conspiracy by university professors to persuade women not to have children, you're well into the 99th percentile. Therefore the large majority of people who occupy the middle of the distribution are going to appear centrist from that perspective.

    I appreciate that it must feel oppressive facing down the vast bulk of centrist opinion, but it probably does reflect how the nation thinks more than the more maverick opinions do.
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