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Si vis pacem, para bellum – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 22,951
    edited December 11

    nico67 said:

    The junior doctors are really biting the hand that feeds aren't they?

    I think their behaviour has been outrageous . They know full well that the government doesn’t have any more money for a wage increase . There are many workers that would like to see their salaries recover from 2008 . They got close to 30% over 2 years and have chucked that in the face of the government.
    I seem to recall someone suggested standing up to their demands - Sunny? Sunax? Something like that.

    He did say that if you gave in, they would be back for more.
    Is that the chap who was paying them £3k per shift as agency workers covering strikes to avoid a £3k per year payrise?
    This ignores the effect of compounding , of course. The pay rise is there, and compounds for the rest of their career as well as other costs of employment on top.

    The shift cost total is a one off hit . The implication is he should,give the money grabbers the 3 grand as he’s giving it to agency workers but it is not like for like
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352

    glw said:

    nico67 said:

    The junior doctors are really biting the hand that feeds aren't they?

    I think their behaviour has been outrageous . They know full well that the government doesn’t have any more money for a wage increase . There are many workers that would like to see their salaries recover from 2008 . They got close to 30% over 2 years and have chucked that in the face of the government.
    I seem to recall someone suggested standing up to their demands - Sunny? Sunax? Something like that.

    He did say that if you gave in, they would be back for more.
    If you can ignore the cost it's quite amusing to listen to Labour ministers voicing the same complaints and sounding as exasperated as their Tory predecessors.
    Tony Blair & Co. went from criticising banning Gerry Adams from speaking to wanting indefinite internment without trial. In a couple of years.
    Then signed the Good Friday agreement with them.

    Negotiations are how these things get settled.

    Streetings latest offer on jobs etc is a definite step forward. If he offered to at least match inflation on pay for the next years then I think the strikes would be off.

    Not that there was much turnout for the last one, and I don't think they will pass the mandate needed for a renewal of strikes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,390

    glw said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes. The US is now aligned with a nation that threatens us continuously. We should be preparing today for the US to leave NATO. We should expect that in time that US will be actively hostile to most European nations including the UK.
    If you put the rhetoric to one side, they're no more aligned with Russia than continental European countries were when they were busy building Nordsteam and filling the Russian elite's bank accounts.

    It would be a big mistake to regard a less ideological America as an enemy.
    Let us know when a less ideological US turns up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,629
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    FF43 said:

    It's grim. The only slightly amusing outcome would be if Hungary peeled off from the EU and the other three countries didn't follow it.

    Orban is largely kept in power by the Hungarian diaspora vote, particularly in adjacent countries that it still has territorial ambitions on for a "Greater Hungary".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,359
    boulay said:

    Andy_JS said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Not true. The US is not our enemy.
    Yes they are.
    They might not be our enemy but they are no longer Europe’s friend.
    They're not an enemy as in planning to invade and occupy. But you need that high bar of definition to escape the word.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,658
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes. The US is now aligned with a nation that threatens us continuously. We should be preparing today for the US to leave NATO. We should expect that in time that US will be actively hostile to most European nations including the UK.
    If you put the rhetoric to one side, they're no more aligned with Russia than continental European countries were when they were busy building Nordsteam and filling the Russian elite's bank accounts.

    It would be a big mistake to regard a less ideological America as an enemy.
    Let us know when a less ideological US turns up.
    It's here already. It's shifted away from proselytising liberal globalism to a pragmatic focus on interests.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,157
    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    The junior doctors are really biting the hand that feeds aren't they?

    I think their behaviour has been outrageous . They know full well that the government doesn’t have any more money for a wage increase . There are many workers that would like to see their salaries recover from 2008 . They got close to 30% over 2 years and have chucked that in the face of the government.
    I seem to recall someone suggested standing up to their demands - Sunny? Sunax? Something like that.

    He did say that if you gave in, they would be back for more.
    Is that the chap who was paying them £3k per shift as agency workers covering strikes to avoid a £3k per year payrise?
    This ignores the effect of compounding , of course. The pay rise is there, and compounds for the rest of their career as well as other costs of employment on top.

    The shift cost total is a one off hit . The implication is he should,give the money grabbers the 3 grand as he’s giving it to agency workers but it is not like for like
    It is not a one off when they were striking 20-30 days a year......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes. The US is now aligned with a nation that threatens us continuously. We should be preparing today for the US to leave NATO. We should expect that in time that US will be actively hostile to most European nations including the UK.
    If you put the rhetoric to one side, they're no more aligned with Russia than continental European countries were when they were busy building Nordsteam and filling the Russian elite's bank accounts.

    It would be a big mistake to regard a less ideological America as an enemy.
    Let us know when a less ideological US turns up.
    It's here already. It's shifted away from proselytising liberal globalism to a pragmatic focus on interests.
    A pragmatic focus on kleptocracy...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,631
    edited December 11
    Andy_JS said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Not true. The US is not our enemy.
    Questionable.

    The one thing preventing a definitive break with the US in my view is it's quite likely there will be a political reaction in the medium item by US political elites against the MAGA chaos. That faction will likely want to re-establish institutions like NATO. Europe should be ready for that eventuality.

    In the meantime we're on our own against a hostile United States.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,951

    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    The junior doctors are really biting the hand that feeds aren't they?

    I think their behaviour has been outrageous . They know full well that the government doesn’t have any more money for a wage increase . There are many workers that would like to see their salaries recover from 2008 . They got close to 30% over 2 years and have chucked that in the face of the government.
    I seem to recall someone suggested standing up to their demands - Sunny? Sunax? Something like that.

    He did say that if you gave in, they would be back for more.
    Is that the chap who was paying them £3k per shift as agency workers covering strikes to avoid a £3k per year payrise?
    This ignores the effect of compounding , of course. The pay rise is there, and compounds for the rest of their career as well as other costs of employment on top.

    The shift cost total is a one off hit . The implication is he should,give the money grabbers the 3 grand as he’s giving it to agency workers but it is not like for like
    It is not a one off when they were striking 20-30 days a year......
    As a total, I said.

    It is a non recurring cost whereas the pay rise is paid for every year and compounds.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,157

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes. The US is now aligned with a nation that threatens us continuously. We should be preparing today for the US to leave NATO. We should expect that in time that US will be actively hostile to most European nations including the UK.
    If you put the rhetoric to one side, they're no more aligned with Russia than continental European countries were when they were busy building Nordsteam and filling the Russian elite's bank accounts.

    It would be a big mistake to regard a less ideological America as an enemy.
    Let us know when a less ideological US turns up.
    It's here already. It's shifted away from proselytising liberal globalism to a pragmatic focus on interests.
    On the interests of Vladimir Putin.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,189
    FPT because I'm worth it.
    CatMan said:

    Errr, you what?

    "Leaked files ‘show US wants to persuade four nations to leave EU’

    The countries seen as targets to follow Brexit are Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, according to leaked details of the US national security strategy
    "

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/us-mega-eu-trump-pqhz8gplr

    That's a USA Christian Nationalist geopolitical theme, which I heard some months ago from a USA commentator suggesting that from analysing the views of someone like Scott Bessant or Eldridge Colby or JD Vance. But I can't put a name to the commentator. It was discussed in the Ukraine the Latest podcast earlier.

    It is based on their idea that UK France Germany Sweden etc are going Islamist in 30 years or so (obvious nuts, but they ARE nuts), and that to contain Russia they need an Eastern chain of still-Christian (ie still white) countries from N-S along the borders of Russia - so Poland etc. And then they can ignore anything West of that.

    It is BS because their analysis of Europe is based on their assumptions themselves based on USA white nationalist culture - like the nostrums about no free speech in Europe, London the Islamist city because it has a Muslim mayor about whom Trump has tantrums, abortion being an existential evil and so on.

    They take their own commonplaces viewed from inside the Usonian silo too seriously, but Yanks always have done.

    It will fail because the Eastern Europeans know that Europe requires unity throughout, and we can't afford to be divided - even if in their view Western Europeans sit on our arses.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,334
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25691415.john-curtice-gives-verdict-poll-predicts-pro-independence-majority/

    In re prsevious thread: the blessed Professor Curtis has spoken.

    Basically much as before, only Labour going down more quickly.

    Well, I knew there had to be someone who subscribes to McPravda as it is "affectionately" known.

    All the same interesting prognosis, tho I couldnt see more than the headline. Due, presumably, to SNP holding their constituencies against divided opposition, and SNP voters switching to Green on the list.

    Perhaps less likely to be pro-Indy majority in terms of actual voting numbers though?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,160
    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    nico67 said:

    The junior doctors are really biting the hand that feeds aren't they?

    I think their behaviour has been outrageous . They know full well that the government doesn’t have any more money for a wage increase . There are many workers that would like to see their salaries recover from 2008 . They got close to 30% over 2 years and have chucked that in the face of the government.
    I seem to recall someone suggested standing up to their demands - Sunny? Sunax? Something like that.

    He did say that if you gave in, they would be back for more.
    If you can ignore the cost it's quite amusing to listen to Labour ministers voicing the same complaints and sounding as exasperated as their Tory predecessors.
    Tony Blair & Co. went from criticising banning Gerry Adams from speaking to wanting indefinite internment without trial. In a couple of years.
    Then signed the Good Friday agreement with them.

    Negotiations are how these things get settled.

    Streetings latest offer on jobs etc is a definite step forward. If he offered to at least match inflation on pay for the next years then I think the strikes would be off.

    Not that there was much turnout for the last one, and I don't think they will pass the mandate needed for a renewal of strikes.
    They signed the Good Friday agreement.

    Then wanted to lock up Muslims for wearing a loud shirt in a built up area.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,435
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness the USA can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally. Some will welcome that, we need to stand on our own two feet and all that, but the transition from having alignment on most things to being openly treated like dirt by the White House - happily supported by 45-50% of Americans - is a significant change that won't go away when Trump eventually exits.

    America was never a "dependable ally". When did it join WW1? WW2? When its trade interests were at risk. The idea of some paternalism by Uncle Sam to help the good people in liberal democracies is so mch BS. They attack to defend the petro-dollar as the world's reserve currency. Otherwise, they sit on their hands. Trump is just an extreme wake-up call to the rest of us.
    I think that is a little extreme. By reliable I don't mean that they would have the back of the West in all cases for no benefit of their own, but we could generally expect at least that they would not genuinely prefer authoritarian states to historic democratic allies. Now they do, even if it is not in their favour. Obviously none of that is 100%, history is complicated and shitty things are done to allies from time to time, but there's real antipathy towards places like Canada and the UK that was not being shown before.
    They are only intereste dwhen theuy need help or can make lots of money out of it, fairweather friends to be avoided.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,435
    FF43 said:

    It's grim. The only slightly amusing outcome would be if Hungary peeled off from the EU and the other three countries didn't follow it.

    They want to chuck them out.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,913
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
    Your point about Russian Bot Farms and poisoning the political discourse is apt. I was looking at comments today under posts about the British soldier killed in Ukraine and the amount of posts from posters in Africa and India etc slamming us for being involved/evil colonialists/good riddance were the majority.

    This is why I used to get annoyed when we had our Saturday trolls where, yes it was good to take the piss and argue them down but ultimately they could use the statements on here that we have a big Westminster following (or did) and then show comments where we slightly agreed or the arguments as propaganda to show we are divided and this site might have credibility in useful circles.

    Sadly I came to the conclusion that the bots needed to be closed down immediately to avoid any benefit.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,435

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness the USA can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally. Some will welcome that, we need to stand on our own two feet and all that, but the transition from having alignment on most things to being openly treated like dirt by the White House - happily supported by 45-50% of Americans - is a significant change that won't go away when Trump eventually exits.

    America was never a "dependable ally". When did it join WW1? WW2? When its trade interests were at risk. The idea of some paternalism by Uncle Sam to help the good people in liberal democracies is so mch BS. They attack to defend the petro-dollar as the world's reserve currency. Otherwise, they sit on their hands. Trump is just an extreme wake-up call to the rest of us.
    That does ignore Lend-Lease ahead of their formal entry into the war.
    Lend-Lease was described on its face as "An Act to Promote the Interests of the United States".

    Self-interest. A mean for America keeping its people employed.

    And don't forget, Reverse Lend-Lease to the United States totalled $7.8 billion. Of this, $6.8 billion came from the British and the Commonwealth.
    And it's a small but significant part of what led to postwar US tech dominance.
    We opened the books on our biggest technical secrets in exchange for aid.
    Quite. Just gave them the jet engine afaicr.

    Over the course of the wars, we sold ourselves into servitude. It has been deeply damaging, and there's been a wall of silence about it - on PB as much as anywhere else.
    yep, they are always out to stiff you
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,435
    Taz said:

    nico67 said:

    The junior doctors are really biting the hand that feeds aren't they?

    I think their behaviour has been outrageous . They know full well that the government doesn’t have any more money for a wage increase . There are many workers that would like to see their salaries recover from 2008 . They got close to 30% over 2 years and have chucked that in the face of the government.
    I seem to recall someone suggested standing up to their demands - Sunny? Sunax? Something like that.

    He did say that if you gave in, they would be back for more.
    Is that the chap who was paying them £3k per shift as agency workers covering strikes to avoid a £3k per year payrise?
    This ignores the effect of compounding , of course. The pay rise is there, and compounds for the rest of their career as well as other costs of employment on top.

    The shift cost total is a one off hit . The implication is he should,give the money grabbers the 3 grand as he’s giving it to agency workers but it is not like for like
    They should be told to F Off, get 10,000 visas printed
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,189
    Have we noted Canada's new proposal to increase their reserves by about 12 times to 400k?

    https://winnipegsun.com/news/canadian-military-leaders-warn-of-future-conflict-push-for-massive-expansion

  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,506
    edited December 11
    MattW said:

    FPT because I'm worth it.

    CatMan said:

    Errr, you what?

    "Leaked files ‘show US wants to persuade four nations to leave EU’

    The countries seen as targets to follow Brexit are Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, according to leaked details of the US national security strategy
    "

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/us-mega-eu-trump-pqhz8gplr

    That's a USA Christian Nationalist geopolitical theme, which I heard some months ago from a USA commentator suggesting that from analysing the views of someone like Scott Bessant or Eldridge Colby or JD Vance. But I can't put a name to the commentator. It was discussed in the Ukraine the Latest podcast earlier.

    It is based on their idea that UK France Germany Sweden etc are going Islamist in 30 years or so (obvious nuts, but they ARE nuts), and that to contain Russia they need an Eastern chain of still-Christian (ie still white) countries from N-S along the borders of Russia - so Poland etc. And then they can ignore anything West of that.

    It is BS because their analysis of Europe is based on their assumptions themselves based on USA white nationalist culture - like the nostrums about no free speech in Europe, London the Islamist city because it has a Muslim mayor about whom Trump has tantrums, abortion being an existential evil and so on.

    They take their own commonplaces viewed from inside the Usonian silo too seriously, but Yanks always have done.

    It will fail because the Eastern Europeans know that Europe requires unity throughout, and we can't afford to be divided - even if in their view Western Europeans sit on our arses.
    The UK's Muslim population has grown ninefold in the past 30 years. I don't see this trend reversing. Muslim majority in 30 years seems plausible.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,812
    Would a lot of centrists vote Kemi to stop Nigel becoming PM? I think yes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,658
    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
    Your point about Russian Bot Farms and poisoning the political discourse is apt. I was looking at comments today under posts about the British soldier killed in Ukraine and the amount of posts from posters in Africa and India etc slamming us for being involved/evil colonialists/good riddance were the majority.

    This is why I used to get annoyed when we had our Saturday trolls where, yes it was good to take the piss and argue them down but ultimately they could use the statements on here that we have a big Westminster following (or did) and then show comments where we slightly agreed or the arguments as propaganda to show we are divided and this site might have credibility in useful circles.

    Sadly I came to the conclusion that the bots needed to be closed down immediately to avoid any benefit.
    In the year 2000, the UK had the 4th highest number of people in the world with internet access. We're now 18th. The reality is that the internet is much less dominated by western countries than it used to be, and many of the people reading and commenting on our news stories are foreign.

    We should beware of a kind of paranoia that sees the hand of Russia behind organic changes that we can only really hope to control by adopting a Chinese approach.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,405
    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,189
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    World Cup ticket prices 'monumental betrayal'
    Supporters hoping to attend next year's World Cup final face paying vast prices, with tickets in the 'supporter value tier' starting at £3,119

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c80x38e04yro

    Is that for the games in the USA or for all of them?
    Here’s the prices for the England World Cup soccer matches.

    I cannot post the pic as I’ve had mine for the day.

    https://x.com/henrywinter/status/1999170720186683430?s=61
    Is anybody going to go at these prices to watch something that will be live to air? I think we are going to have a WC of empty stadiums and no atmosphere.
    The WC is in the toilet !
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,913

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
    Your point about Russian Bot Farms and poisoning the political discourse is apt. I was looking at comments today under posts about the British soldier killed in Ukraine and the amount of posts from posters in Africa and India etc slamming us for being involved/evil colonialists/good riddance were the majority.

    This is why I used to get annoyed when we had our Saturday trolls where, yes it was good to take the piss and argue them down but ultimately they could use the statements on here that we have a big Westminster following (or did) and then show comments where we slightly agreed or the arguments as propaganda to show we are divided and this site might have credibility in useful circles.

    Sadly I came to the conclusion that the bots needed to be closed down immediately to avoid any benefit.
    In the year 2000, the UK had the 4th highest number of people in the world with internet access. We're now 18th. The reality is that the internet is much less dominated by western countries than it used to be, and many of the people reading and commenting on our news stories are foreign.

    We should beware of a kind of paranoia that sees the hand of Russia behind organic changes that we can only really hope to control by adopting a Chinese approach.
    That’s fine but clicking through and seeing the profiles of the posters there were no other comments or background - purely there with the posts attacking the uk.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,662
    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

    No comments because Scott is the only person still using BlueSky
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,631
    edited December 11
    Andy_JS said:

    Would a lot of centrists vote Kemi to stop Nigel becoming PM? I think yes.

    It's possible but I think Kemi should show some interest in those centrists. So far she hasn't. Bear in mind a fair few of them used to vote Conservative.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,262
    @cnn.com‬

    A grand jury, for a second time, has declined to bring a new indictment against Letitia James, the New York attorney general who defeated President Donald Trump and his company in court, according to multiple sources.

    https://cnn.it/4ab2N4j
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,405

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

    No comments because Scott is the only person still using BlueSky
    Maybe, but at least he's picked this up, and it really is seismic

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,971
    An enjoyable time in the pub, followed by reading about the end of the west on PB.

    How to lower your mood.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,797
    nico67 said:

    The junior doctors are really biting the hand that feeds aren't they?

    I think their behaviour has been outrageous . They know full well that the government doesn’t have any more money for a wage increase . There are many workers that would like to see their salaries recover from 2008 . They got close to 30% over 2 years and have chucked that in the face of the government.
    Meh, they are still miles behind inflation, and significantly behind NHS productivity growth. It's a labour market - a sticky one, sure, but you need to pay people their rate otherwise off to Australia they go.

    What's really frightening is NHS spending growth would have been even higher over the last 15 years if it wasn't for the 5-10% real terms cut in pay.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    Andy_JS said:

    Would a lot of centrists vote Kemi to stop Nigel becoming PM? I think yes.

    No chance for this centrist!

    My seat is likely to be a Tory/Reform marginal, but I wouldn't vote Tory as I think they would just support a Farage minority government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,561
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 30% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-2)
    GRN: 18% (=)
    LAB: 14% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 10 Dec.
    Changes w/ 3 Dec.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,951

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
    Your point about Russian Bot Farms and poisoning the political discourse is apt. I was looking at comments today under posts about the British soldier killed in Ukraine and the amount of posts from posters in Africa and India etc slamming us for being involved/evil colonialists/good riddance were the majority.

    This is why I used to get annoyed when we had our Saturday trolls where, yes it was good to take the piss and argue them down but ultimately they could use the statements on here that we have a big Westminster following (or did) and then show comments where we slightly agreed or the arguments as propaganda to show we are divided and this site might have credibility in useful circles.

    Sadly I came to the conclusion that the bots needed to be closed down immediately to avoid any benefit.
    In the year 2000, the UK had the 4th highest number of people in the world with internet access. We're now 18th. The reality is that the internet is much less dominated by western countries than it used to be, and many of the people reading and commenting on our news stories are foreign.

    We should beware of a kind of paranoia that sees the hand of Russia behind organic changes that we can only really hope to control by adopting a Chinese approach.
    There are a lot of people in the world who don’t see it in the same terms as the west does and has little reason, historically, to like us in the West especially given our track record for throwing our weight around and the current US administration using trade and tariffs as a battering ram.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,629
    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

    So... This is not the full kahuna. The assets have been taken from the Russians, but they haven't been given to the Ukrainians to pay for their defense.

    It's a welcome step, but it's not all the way there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,658
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
    Your point about Russian Bot Farms and poisoning the political discourse is apt. I was looking at comments today under posts about the British soldier killed in Ukraine and the amount of posts from posters in Africa and India etc slamming us for being involved/evil colonialists/good riddance were the majority.

    This is why I used to get annoyed when we had our Saturday trolls where, yes it was good to take the piss and argue them down but ultimately they could use the statements on here that we have a big Westminster following (or did) and then show comments where we slightly agreed or the arguments as propaganda to show we are divided and this site might have credibility in useful circles.

    Sadly I came to the conclusion that the bots needed to be closed down immediately to avoid any benefit.
    In the year 2000, the UK had the 4th highest number of people in the world with internet access. We're now 18th. The reality is that the internet is much less dominated by western countries than it used to be, and many of the people reading and commenting on our news stories are foreign.

    We should beware of a kind of paranoia that sees the hand of Russia behind organic changes that we can only really hope to control by adopting a Chinese approach.
    That’s fine but clicking through and seeing the profiles of the posters there were no other comments or background - purely there with the posts attacking the uk.
    There are a lot of people out there who don't like us and wish us ill. Lots of people around the world are fed on a diet of blaming British colonialism for their problems, and it's not primarily Russia that's feeding them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,390

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes. The US is now aligned with a nation that threatens us continuously. We should be preparing today for the US to leave NATO. We should expect that in time that US will be actively hostile to most European nations including the UK.
    If you put the rhetoric to one side, they're no more aligned with Russia than continental European countries were when they were busy building Nordsteam and filling the Russian elite's bank accounts.

    It would be a big mistake to regard a less ideological America as an enemy.
    Let us know when a less ideological US turns up.
    It's here already. It's shifted away from proselytising liberal globalism to a pragmatic focus on interests.
    Pragmatic ?
    Idiot.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,405
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

    So... This is not the full kahuna. The assets have been taken from the Russians, but they haven't been given to the Ukrainians to pay for their defense.

    It's a welcome step, but it's not all the way there.
    UvdL's proposal:
    to channel the immobilised Russian assets into a zero-interest reparations loan to Ukraine. The assets are now mature and therefore liquid and fungible.

    Kyiv would only repay the loan if Moscow paid for war reparations.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,189
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

    So... This is not the full kahuna. The assets have been taken from the Russians, but they haven't been given to the Ukrainians to pay for their defense.

    It's a welcome step, but it's not all the way there.
    I think the important thing is that it should (I don't know the ins and outs, apart form our cricket team being outs) stamp on the Putin-Trump proposals to invest it in Russia and the USA.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,359

    An enjoyable time in the pub, followed by reading about the end of the west on PB.

    How to lower your mood.

    At least you didn't see Richard Tice like I did. What a dampener.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
    Your point about Russian Bot Farms and poisoning the political discourse is apt. I was looking at comments today under posts about the British soldier killed in Ukraine and the amount of posts from posters in Africa and India etc slamming us for being involved/evil colonialists/good riddance were the majority.

    This is why I used to get annoyed when we had our Saturday trolls where, yes it was good to take the piss and argue them down but ultimately they could use the statements on here that we have a big Westminster following (or did) and then show comments where we slightly agreed or the arguments as propaganda to show we are divided and this site might have credibility in useful circles.

    Sadly I came to the conclusion that the bots needed to be closed down immediately to avoid any benefit.
    In the year 2000, the UK had the 4th highest number of people in the world with internet access. We're now 18th. The reality is that the internet is much less dominated by western countries than it used to be, and many of the people reading and commenting on our news stories are foreign.

    We should beware of a kind of paranoia that sees the hand of Russia behind organic changes that we can only really hope to control by adopting a Chinese approach.
    That’s fine but clicking through and seeing the profiles of the posters there were no other comments or background - purely there with the posts attacking the uk.
    I am sure that many are trolls working for Russia, or via VPNs are Russian trolls, but in Africa, Middle East and India there is a lot of support from Russia. A fair bit goes back to European colonialism, but there is also a lot of residual pro-Russian feeling left over from the Cold War, when "Russia"* armed and supplied their independence and Nationalist movements. Corrupt political autocrats often flock together too.

    * It was the USSR of course and then Communist rather than Ethno-Fascist, but like British Tankies these subtleties are ignored.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,541
    IanB2 said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 30% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-2)
    GRN: 18% (=)
    LAB: 14% (=)
    LDM: 12% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 10 Dec.
    Changes w/ 3 Dec.

    The rounding party surging by 2% in that poll.

    LLG 44 (+1) RefCon 48 (-3)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,541
    edited December 11

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    When I were a lad, we were told that Russia was our enemy and the USA was our friend. Some of us thought that wasn’t true, but I never thought I’d see the day when they were both our enemies.

    Is America more of an enemy than it was during the Suez crisis?
    Yes.
    How? Suez also had the element of siding with Russia against us, so it can't be that.
    I cannot be arsed with your twatabouttery when it comes to this.
    The last time I felt this foreboding was in the Cuban crisis in 1962

    Maybe Trump will withdraw from NATO with everything that could follow

    At our ages my wife and I look on todays divisions and really do fear for our grandchildren futures
    Yet we face a Russian military which has failed to defeat Ukraine and can't even reach Kharkiv from its own border and we are expected to believe it will roll from Poland to Paris.

    That's not to be complacent by any means and the nature of war is evolving (as it always has) and the cyber attack is likely to be the devastating open gambit aimed at paralysing our lives dependent as they are on the "systems" which feed us, clothe us and keep us warm.
    Yes, clearly the threat from Russia is more subtle than an armed invasion. Their military cannot take a Dontesk mining town, and its Black Sea fleet is had to retreat from a country with no navy. Its airforce launches stand off missiles from well within Russia because it cannot get air supremacy even over Ukraine.

    The threat is Cyberwarfare, drones (like we have seen in a number of recent incidents here and in Ireland, and most of all from corrupt/traitorous British politicians.

    It is GCHQ that needs investment more than the formal military.
    Russia bankrolls politicians, both through direct bribery, and through giving jobs as pundits on Russia Today.

    It fosters division through its troll farms.

    Defeating Russia in Ukraine is not just about freeing Ukrainians, it is also about preventing Russia from continuing to interfere and poison political discourse.

    Now, can I guarantee that if Putin falls, then we'll get someone more palatable? Nope. But we also know that Russia's economy, for the first time, is really struggling, thanks to a combination of Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure, a low (and falling) global oil price, and the fact that 40% of the government budget is now being spent on the military.

    If the Europeans can take Russian assets and use them to pay for Ukrainian defence, while continuing to build up alternative supplies of energy, then I doubt the Russians will have the financial wherewithal to be as interfering as they had been.
    Your point about Russian Bot Farms and poisoning the political discourse is apt. I was looking at comments today under posts about the British soldier killed in Ukraine and the amount of posts from posters in Africa and India etc slamming us for being involved/evil colonialists/good riddance were the majority.

    This is why I used to get annoyed when we had our Saturday trolls where, yes it was good to take the piss and argue them down but ultimately they could use the statements on here that we have a big Westminster following (or did) and then show comments where we slightly agreed or the arguments as propaganda to show we are divided and this site might have credibility in useful circles.

    Sadly I came to the conclusion that the bots needed to be closed down immediately to avoid any benefit.
    In the year 2000, the UK had the 4th highest number of people in the world with internet access. We're now 18th. The reality is that the internet is much less dominated by western countries than it used to be, and many of the people reading and commenting on our news stories are foreign.

    We should beware of a kind of paranoia that sees the hand of Russia behind organic changes that we can only really hope to control by adopting a Chinese approach.
    That’s fine but clicking through and seeing the profiles of the posters there were no other comments or background - purely there with the posts attacking the uk.
    There are a lot of people out there who don't like us and wish us ill. Lots of people around the world are fed on a diet of blaming British colonialism for their problems, and it's not primarily Russia that's feeding them.
    In the case of multi-digit sock puppets on X, yes it is. By bank transfer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,359
    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,405
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

    So... This is not the full kahuna. The assets have been taken from the Russians, but they haven't been given to the Ukrainians to pay for their defense.

    It's a welcome step, but it's not all the way there.
    UvdL's proposal:
    to channel the immobilised Russian assets into a zero-interest reparations loan to Ukraine. The assets are now mature and therefore liquid and fungible.

    Kyiv would only repay the loan if Moscow paid for war reparations.


    OTOH the Kyiv Independent reports:

    Valerie Urbain, Euroclear’s сhief executive officer, voiced her opposition to the "reparation loan" mechanism and said that she was ready to challenge this decision in court.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    NATO is now the EU plus Canada, Turkey and us.

    The USA is nominally a member, but does anyone believe they would honour that commitment?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,405
    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    Yes: NATO as was, and the JEF as is

  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Would a lot of centrists vote Kemi to stop Nigel becoming PM? I think yes.

    No chance for this centrist!

    My seat is likely to be a Tory/Reform marginal, but I wouldn't vote Tory as I think they would just support a Farage minority government.
    If the polls look like this in 2029, it's a tricky question for Kemi B. In a hung parliament, does she back Reform or oppose them?

    There are straight-bat answers ("I want a Conservative majority to implement the Conservative manifesto", "don't want to second-guess the British people" etc) but Kemi doesn't strive me as a straight-bat kinda gal.

    But let's be blunt. There's naff all point in voting for Andrew Rosindell to oppose Reform.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,913
    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,390
    The new US 'pragmatism'.
    Totally unideological.

    GLASHEEN: Antifa is our primary concern right now. That's the most immediate violent threat we're facing

    BENNIE THOMPSON: Where is antifa headquartered?

    GLASHEEN: ... ... ... we are building out the infrastructure right now

    THOMPSON: What does that mean?

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1999144887795490842
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,913
    edited December 11
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
    Because the EU isn’t for everyone. Shorn of its role in regulation, laws, finance, commerce, trade a European UN would be a pure geopolitics entity. The UN worked despite it not being like the EU as its efforts are focussed elsewhere than micromanaging its members.

    Whilst I get you are a remainer (this isn’t a dig at all) would you not see that maybe a pan European organisation which is inclusive of the UK, Norway, Switzerland would be a useful force projection? If not then what is the point of the UN or any other bloc.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,089
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness the USA can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally. Some will welcome that, we need to stand on our own two feet and all that, but the transition from having alignment on most things to being openly treated like dirt by the White House - happily supported by 45-50% of Americans - is a significant change that won't go away when Trump eventually exits.

    This is so obvious now it is remarkable that everyone cannot see it. To believe anything else is simply wishful thinking and sentiment on how things used to be.
    We could depend upon the USA to act in its own strategic interests. That meant, upholding the institutions which it created after 1945.

    Marshall Aid, NATO, WTO advanced US interests and those of its allies.

    Now we face a USA whose government is a kleptocracy, bought and paid for by the Kremlin.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,262
    @gregsargent.bsky.social‬

    In bizarre, self-pitying tirade, unraveling Trump admits his polling is actually pretty bad and not at record highs, as he keeps claiming

    https://bsky.app/profile/gregsargent.bsky.social/post/3m7qd6wh27c2f
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,359
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Yes but the last sentence is an oddity. It's easier to expand a wheel than reinvent it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
    Because the EU isn’t for everyone. Shorn of its role in regulation, laws, finance, commerce, trade a European UN would be a pure geopolitics entity. The UN worked despite it not being like the EU as its efforts are focussed elsewhere than micromanaging its members.

    Whilst I get you are a remainder (this isn’t a dig at all) would you not see that maybe a pan European organisation which is inclusive of the UK, Norway, Switzerland would be a useful force projection? If not then what is the point of the UN or any other bloc.
    Switzerland is neutral and not going to change. Norway and Iceland are in the EEA so very closely aligned, it is only us and the Balkan microstates (some of which are pro-Russian) that are not in the EU.

    Any organisation that you describe would have 85% EU votes. There is no need to reinvent the wheel, just remain in European institutions, and Rejoin either EEA or EU.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,913
    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Yes but the last sentence is an oddity. It's easier to expand a wheel than reinvent it.
    I would be happier with a concentric EU with different levels of commitment however that’s not happening and would be quicker and helpful to have something that could frankly be set up very quickly that isn’t constrained by EU negotiations and agreements on trade, customs, etc etc and could be a talking shop and a power projector concerned with the whole continent’s strategic interests when it comes to defence and geopolitics rather than rules about the shape of bananas (yes I know) and so on.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,698
    Occurs to me that I haven't seen an obvious Russian troll here lately. Are they all busy in Italy, Hungary, Poland?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,913
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
    Because the EU isn’t for everyone. Shorn of its role in regulation, laws, finance, commerce, trade a European UN would be a pure geopolitics entity. The UN worked despite it not being like the EU as its efforts are focussed elsewhere than micromanaging its members.

    Whilst I get you are a remainder (this isn’t a dig at all) would you not see that maybe a pan European organisation which is inclusive of the UK, Norway, Switzerland would be a useful force projection? If not then what is the point of the UN or any other bloc.
    Switzerland is neutral and not going to change. Norway and Iceland are in the EEA so very closely aligned, it is only us and the Balkan microstates (some of which are pro-Russian) that are not in the EU.

    Any organisation that you describe would have 85% EU votes. There is no need to reinvent the wheel, just remain in European institutions, and Rejoin either EEA or EU.
    Re 85% EU votes, if it is outwith the EU and countries are voting based on their interests and not an EU bloc then you might find that many countries would take a view that is different to the view of the EU as an institution.

    I’m simply projecting that some open minds where people can think of Europe without myopically seeing it as the EU might be beneficial and worth considering.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,405
    ohnotnow said:

    Occurs to me that I haven't seen an obvious Russian troll here lately. Are they all busy in Italy, Hungary, Poland?

    It's not the obvious ones you should be concerned about

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,046
    edited December 11
    boulay said:

    ...I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU....

    Council of Europe! Council of Europe! COUNCIL OF EUROPE!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,201

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Would a lot of centrists vote Kemi to stop Nigel becoming PM? I think yes.

    No chance for this centrist!

    My seat is likely to be a Tory/Reform marginal, but I wouldn't vote Tory as I think they would just support a Farage minority government.
    If the polls look like this in 2029, it's a tricky question for Kemi B. In a hung parliament, does she back Reform or oppose them?

    There are straight-bat answers ("I want a Conservative majority to implement the Conservative manifesto", "don't want to second-guess the British people" etc) but Kemi doesn't strive me as a straight-bat kinda gal.

    But let's be blunt. There's naff all point in voting for Andrew Rosindell to oppose Reform.
    Feel the same about Priti Patel!
    It’s beginning to look as though Green might be an option round here.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,046
    Bald beardy guy does the National Security Strategy. He's not best pleased.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eKadWjJENE (32 mins)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
    Because the EU isn’t for everyone. Shorn of its role in regulation, laws, finance, commerce, trade a European UN would be a pure geopolitics entity. The UN worked despite it not being like the EU as its efforts are focussed elsewhere than micromanaging its members.

    Whilst I get you are a remainder (this isn’t a dig at all) would you not see that maybe a pan European organisation which is inclusive of the UK, Norway, Switzerland would be a useful force projection? If not then what is the point of the UN or any other bloc.
    Switzerland is neutral and not going to change. Norway and Iceland are in the EEA so very closely aligned, it is only us and the Balkan microstates (some of which are pro-Russian) that are not in the EU.

    Any organisation that you describe would have 85% EU votes. There is no need to reinvent the wheel, just remain in European institutions, and Rejoin either EEA or EU.
    Re 85% EU votes, if it is outwith the EU and countries are voting based on their interests and not an EU bloc then you might find that many countries would take a view that is different to the view of the EU as an institution.

    I’m simply projecting that some open minds where people can think of Europe without myopically seeing it as the EU might be beneficial and worth considering.
    Perhaps you are describing the Council of Europe, which consists of EU plus Switzerland, Balkans, Turkey, Ukraine, Georgia Norway etc. It is more inclusive but includes institutions such as the EHCR and has the same flag and Anthem as the EU.

    But it falls far short of what you desire. That body is the EU.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,160
    nico67 said:

    It’s so tragic seeing the EU and UK supporting Trumps peace plans , all the while knowing he’s on Russia’s side and has no intention of coming to Ukraine’s aid . Any security guarantee from the US is laughable . But we keep seeing this pathetic game being played .

    Seems to me, that like Zelensky, they are playing the longer game. Pat Trump on the head, make some nice noises, meanwhile Putin says peace can’t be made. Lucky Strike accidents continue and the EU moves towards confiscation of the frozen Russian assets.

    It’s not ideal, but what’s a better option? A full toddler screaming match with Trump?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,562
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    FPT because I'm worth it.

    CatMan said:

    Errr, you what?

    "Leaked files ‘show US wants to persuade four nations to leave EU’

    The countries seen as targets to follow Brexit are Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, according to leaked details of the US national security strategy
    "

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/us-mega-eu-trump-pqhz8gplr

    That's a USA Christian Nationalist geopolitical theme, which I heard some months ago from a USA commentator suggesting that from analysing the views of someone like Scott Bessant or Eldridge Colby or JD Vance. But I can't put a name to the commentator. It was discussed in the Ukraine the Latest podcast earlier.

    It is based on their idea that UK France Germany Sweden etc are going Islamist in 30 years or so (obvious nuts, but they ARE nuts), and that to contain Russia they need an Eastern chain of still-Christian (ie still white) countries from N-S along the borders of Russia - so Poland etc. And then they can ignore anything West of that.

    It is BS because their analysis of Europe is based on their assumptions themselves based on USA white nationalist culture - like the nostrums about no free speech in Europe, London the Islamist city because it has a Muslim mayor about whom Trump has tantrums, abortion being an existential evil and so on.

    They take their own commonplaces viewed from inside the Usonian silo too seriously, but Yanks always have done.

    It will fail because the Eastern Europeans know that Europe requires unity throughout, and we can't afford to be divided - even if in their view Western Europeans sit on our arses.
    The UK's Muslim population has grown ninefold in the past 30 years. I don't see this trend reversing. Muslim majority in 30 years seems plausible.
    No chance. It's gone from 2.7% to 6% between 2001 & 2021. If it kept growing at the same rate it would be around 11% in 2040.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,048
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Would a lot of centrists vote Kemi to stop Nigel becoming PM? I think yes.

    No chance for this centrist!

    My seat is likely to be a Tory/Reform marginal, but I wouldn't vote Tory as I think they would just support a Farage minority government.
    A true Tory squeeze would be that all the people who could vote Tory either vote for Reform because they are the real thing, or vote for whoever isn't a Tory and can beat Reform (my ex-Tory vote), as voting Tory is a vote for a Reform government with Tory support. Leaving The Tories with almost no-one.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,393

    nico67 said:

    It’s so tragic seeing the EU and UK supporting Trumps peace plans , all the while knowing he’s on Russia’s side and has no intention of coming to Ukraine’s aid . Any security guarantee from the US is laughable . But we keep seeing this pathetic game being played .

    Seems to me, that like Zelensky, they are playing the longer game. Pat Trump on the head, make some nice noises, meanwhile Putin says peace can’t be made. Lucky Strike accidents continue and the EU moves towards confiscation of the frozen Russian assets.

    It’s not ideal, but what’s a better option? A full toddler screaming match with Trump?
    The problem with the long game is if Trump does become incapacitated, which is quite a high likelihood, Vance - who could not be more overt in his support for Russia if he dropped his trousers to let Putin bugger him - will take over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,390
    CatMan said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    FPT because I'm worth it.

    CatMan said:

    Errr, you what?

    "Leaked files ‘show US wants to persuade four nations to leave EU’

    The countries seen as targets to follow Brexit are Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, according to leaked details of the US national security strategy
    "

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/us-mega-eu-trump-pqhz8gplr

    That's a USA Christian Nationalist geopolitical theme, which I heard some months ago from a USA commentator suggesting that from analysing the views of someone like Scott Bessant or Eldridge Colby or JD Vance. But I can't put a name to the commentator. It was discussed in the Ukraine the Latest podcast earlier.

    It is based on their idea that UK France Germany Sweden etc are going Islamist in 30 years or so (obvious nuts, but they ARE nuts), and that to contain Russia they need an Eastern chain of still-Christian (ie still white) countries from N-S along the borders of Russia - so Poland etc. And then they can ignore anything West of that.

    It is BS because their analysis of Europe is based on their assumptions themselves based on USA white nationalist culture - like the nostrums about no free speech in Europe, London the Islamist city because it has a Muslim mayor about whom Trump has tantrums, abortion being an existential evil and so on.

    They take their own commonplaces viewed from inside the Usonian silo too seriously, but Yanks always have done.

    It will fail because the Eastern Europeans know that Europe requires unity throughout, and we can't afford to be divided - even if in their view Western Europeans sit on our arses.
    The UK's Muslim population has grown ninefold in the past 30 years. I don't see this trend reversing. Muslim majority in 30 years seems plausible.
    No chance. It's gone from 2.7% to 6% between 2001 & 2021. If it kept growing at the same rate it would be around 11% in 2040.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom
    In any event, demographic projections beyond the next few years have a strong tendency to be wrong.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,999
    edited December 11

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25691415.john-curtice-gives-verdict-poll-predicts-pro-independence-majority/

    In re prsevious thread: the blessed Professor Curtis has spoken.

    Basically much as before, only Labour going down more quickly.

    Well, I knew there had to be someone who subscribes to McPravda as it is "affectionately" known.

    All the same interesting prognosis, tho I couldnt see more than the headline. Due, presumably, to SNP holding their constituencies against divided opposition, and SNP voters switching to Green on the list.

    Perhaps less likely to be pro-Indy majority in terms of actual voting numbers though?
    You think Prof Curtis is biased/lying, feel free to say so more explicitly. Edit: of course you wouldn't, I thinK: but the wording is decidedly ambiguous.

    Actually, it's a fairly dampening forecast all round.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,698
    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s so tragic seeing the EU and UK supporting Trumps peace plans , all the while knowing he’s on Russia’s side and has no intention of coming to Ukraine’s aid . Any security guarantee from the US is laughable . But we keep seeing this pathetic game being played .

    Seems to me, that like Zelensky, they are playing the longer game. Pat Trump on the head, make some nice noises, meanwhile Putin says peace can’t be made. Lucky Strike accidents continue and the EU moves towards confiscation of the frozen Russian assets.

    It’s not ideal, but what’s a better option? A full toddler screaming match with Trump?
    The problem with the long game is if Trump does become incapacitated, which is quite a high likelihood, Vance - who could not be more overt in his support for Russia if he dropped his trousers to let Putin bugger him - will take over.
    Distract him with an attractive sofa? Those Italian leather minxes... so alluring to the fash-curious.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,494
    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    FPT because I'm worth it.

    CatMan said:

    Errr, you what?

    "Leaked files ‘show US wants to persuade four nations to leave EU’

    The countries seen as targets to follow Brexit are Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, according to leaked details of the US national security strategy
    "

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/us-mega-eu-trump-pqhz8gplr

    That's a USA Christian Nationalist geopolitical theme, which I heard some months ago from a USA commentator suggesting that from analysing the views of someone like Scott Bessant or Eldridge Colby or JD Vance. But I can't put a name to the commentator. It was discussed in the Ukraine the Latest podcast earlier.

    It is based on their idea that UK France Germany Sweden etc are going Islamist in 30 years or so (obvious nuts, but they ARE nuts), and that to contain Russia they need an Eastern chain of still-Christian (ie still white) countries from N-S along the borders of Russia - so Poland etc. And then they can ignore anything West of that.

    It is BS because their analysis of Europe is based on their assumptions themselves based on USA white nationalist culture - like the nostrums about no free speech in Europe, London the Islamist city because it has a Muslim mayor about whom Trump has tantrums, abortion being an existential evil and so on.

    They take their own commonplaces viewed from inside the Usonian silo too seriously, but Yanks always have done.

    It will fail because the Eastern Europeans know that Europe requires unity throughout, and we can't afford to be divided - even if in their view Western Europeans sit on our arses.
    The UK's Muslim population has grown ninefold in the past 30 years. I don't see this trend reversing. Muslim majority in 30 years seems plausible.
    The first time the religious ID question was asked in the census was in 2001 when the Muslim population was 3% or around 1.5mn people. In 2021 the number was around 6.5% or 4mn people. So the share has more or less doubled in 20 years. There is no plausible population scenario under which Muslims would be a majority of the UK population in 30 years, especially as fertility rates among Muslim women are declining over time and as the Muslim population ages you will start to see deaths catching up with births, so the growth in the percentage share of the population will slow. I'd be interested in seeing the source for your claim.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,393
    ohnotnow said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s so tragic seeing the EU and UK supporting Trumps peace plans , all the while knowing he’s on Russia’s side and has no intention of coming to Ukraine’s aid . Any security guarantee from the US is laughable . But we keep seeing this pathetic game being played .

    Seems to me, that like Zelensky, they are playing the longer game. Pat Trump on the head, make some nice noises, meanwhile Putin says peace can’t be made. Lucky Strike accidents continue and the EU moves towards confiscation of the frozen Russian assets.

    It’s not ideal, but what’s a better option? A full toddler screaming match with Trump?
    The problem with the long game is if Trump does become incapacitated, which is quite a high likelihood, Vance - who could not be more overt in his support for Russia if he dropped his trousers to let Putin bugger him - will take over.
    Distract him with an attractive sofa? Those Italian leather minxes... so alluring to the fash-curious.
    What did JD Vance say after the third orgasm?

    'Sofa, so good.'
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,698
    geoffw said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Occurs to me that I haven't seen an obvious Russian troll here lately. Are they all busy in Italy, Hungary, Poland?

    It's not the obvious ones you should be concerned about

    They were fun though. The concerning ones are easy enough to ignore - and also quite dull.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,913
    ohnotnow said:

    ydoethur said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s so tragic seeing the EU and UK supporting Trumps peace plans , all the while knowing he’s on Russia’s side and has no intention of coming to Ukraine’s aid . Any security guarantee from the US is laughable . But we keep seeing this pathetic game being played .

    Seems to me, that like Zelensky, they are playing the longer game. Pat Trump on the head, make some nice noises, meanwhile Putin says peace can’t be made. Lucky Strike accidents continue and the EU moves towards confiscation of the frozen Russian assets.

    It’s not ideal, but what’s a better option? A full toddler screaming match with Trump?
    The problem with the long game is if Trump does become incapacitated, which is quite a high likelihood, Vance - who could not be more overt in his support for Russia if he dropped his trousers to let Putin bugger him - will take over.
    Distract him with an attractive sofa? Those Italian leather minxes... so alluring to the fash-curious.
    Can you imagine the frisson he felt on his holiday in the UK whenever the DFS sale ad came on tv. All those sexy sofas looking for a man to curl up with them.
  • nico67 said:

    It’s so tragic seeing the EU and UK supporting Trumps peace plans , all the while knowing he’s on Russia’s side and has no intention of coming to Ukraine’s aid . Any security guarantee from the US is laughable . But we keep seeing this pathetic game being played .

    Seems to me, that like Zelensky, they are playing the longer game. Pat Trump on the head, make some nice noises, meanwhile Putin says peace can’t be made. Lucky Strike accidents continue and the EU moves towards confiscation of the frozen Russian assets.

    It’s not ideal, but what’s a better option? A full toddler screaming match with Trump?
    Dangers of Permanews, part 94.

    I'm hopeful (not necessarily confident, but hopeful) that there's stuff happening underground that boils down to Europe decoupling from Trumpistan and supporting Ukraine in the way it needs.

    That's the sort of thing which is probably more effective if I don't know about it. But some are of the view that if it isn't on a rolling news channel, it isn't real.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,562
    Nigelb said:

    CatMan said:

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    FPT because I'm worth it.

    CatMan said:

    Errr, you what?

    "Leaked files ‘show US wants to persuade four nations to leave EU’

    The countries seen as targets to follow Brexit are Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, according to leaked details of the US national security strategy
    "

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/us-mega-eu-trump-pqhz8gplr

    That's a USA Christian Nationalist geopolitical theme, which I heard some months ago from a USA commentator suggesting that from analysing the views of someone like Scott Bessant or Eldridge Colby or JD Vance. But I can't put a name to the commentator. It was discussed in the Ukraine the Latest podcast earlier.

    It is based on their idea that UK France Germany Sweden etc are going Islamist in 30 years or so (obvious nuts, but they ARE nuts), and that to contain Russia they need an Eastern chain of still-Christian (ie still white) countries from N-S along the borders of Russia - so Poland etc. And then they can ignore anything West of that.

    It is BS because their analysis of Europe is based on their assumptions themselves based on USA white nationalist culture - like the nostrums about no free speech in Europe, London the Islamist city because it has a Muslim mayor about whom Trump has tantrums, abortion being an existential evil and so on.

    They take their own commonplaces viewed from inside the Usonian silo too seriously, but Yanks always have done.

    It will fail because the Eastern Europeans know that Europe requires unity throughout, and we can't afford to be divided - even if in their view Western Europeans sit on our arses.
    The UK's Muslim population has grown ninefold in the past 30 years. I don't see this trend reversing. Muslim majority in 30 years seems plausible.
    No chance. It's gone from 2.7% to 6% between 2001 & 2021. If it kept growing at the same rate it would be around 11% in 2040.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_the_United_Kingdom
    In any event, demographic projections beyond the next few years have a strong tendency to be wrong.
    True

    (Whoops, I meant 2050)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,494
    Nigelb said:

    The new US 'pragmatism'.
    Totally unideological.

    GLASHEEN: Antifa is our primary concern right now. That's the most immediate violent threat we're facing

    BENNIE THOMPSON: Where is antifa headquartered?

    GLASHEEN: ... ... ... we are building out the infrastructure right now

    THOMPSON: What does that mean?

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1999144887795490842

    They have completely lost it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,390
    Ajax guy is pretty good at delineating the MoD's procurement problems.

    I might be a lone voice, as a civil servant who worked on AJAX in the past, and on other large £Bn programmes since, largely BAE contracts. I can tell you - the problems are endemic across our largest defence suppliers...
    https://x.com/MilitaryBanter/status/1999182457455718498

    (Too long to post in full.)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,698

    Cookie said:

    MattW said:

    FPT because I'm worth it.

    CatMan said:

    Errr, you what?

    "Leaked files ‘show US wants to persuade four nations to leave EU’

    The countries seen as targets to follow Brexit are Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, according to leaked details of the US national security strategy
    "

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/us-mega-eu-trump-pqhz8gplr

    That's a USA Christian Nationalist geopolitical theme, which I heard some months ago from a USA commentator suggesting that from analysing the views of someone like Scott Bessant or Eldridge Colby or JD Vance. But I can't put a name to the commentator. It was discussed in the Ukraine the Latest podcast earlier.

    It is based on their idea that UK France Germany Sweden etc are going Islamist in 30 years or so (obvious nuts, but they ARE nuts), and that to contain Russia they need an Eastern chain of still-Christian (ie still white) countries from N-S along the borders of Russia - so Poland etc. And then they can ignore anything West of that.

    It is BS because their analysis of Europe is based on their assumptions themselves based on USA white nationalist culture - like the nostrums about no free speech in Europe, London the Islamist city because it has a Muslim mayor about whom Trump has tantrums, abortion being an existential evil and so on.

    They take their own commonplaces viewed from inside the Usonian silo too seriously, but Yanks always have done.

    It will fail because the Eastern Europeans know that Europe requires unity throughout, and we can't afford to be divided - even if in their view Western Europeans sit on our arses.
    The UK's Muslim population has grown ninefold in the past 30 years. I don't see this trend reversing. Muslim majority in 30 years seems plausible.
    The first time the religious ID question was asked in the census was in 2001 when the Muslim population was 3% or around 1.5mn people. In 2021 the number was around 6.5% or 4mn people. So the share has more or less doubled in 20 years. There is no plausible population scenario under which Muslims would be a majority of the UK population in 30 years, especially as fertility rates among Muslim women are declining over time and as the Muslim population ages you will start to see deaths catching up with births, so the growth in the percentage share of the population will slow. I'd be interested in seeing the source for your claim.
    Can I interest you in a yearly subscription to The Telegraph?
  • boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
    Because the EU isn’t for everyone. Shorn of its role in regulation, laws, finance, commerce, trade a European UN would be a pure geopolitics entity. The UN worked despite it not being like the EU as its efforts are focussed elsewhere than micromanaging its members.

    Whilst I get you are a remainder (this isn’t a dig at all) would you not see that maybe a pan European organisation which is inclusive of the UK, Norway, Switzerland would be a useful force projection? If not then what is the point of the UN or any other bloc.
    Switzerland is neutral and not going to change. Norway and Iceland are in the EEA so very closely aligned, it is only us and the Balkan microstates (some of which are pro-Russian) that are not in the EU.

    Any organisation that you describe would have 85% EU votes. There is no need to reinvent the wheel, just remain in European institutions, and Rejoin either EEA or EU.
    Re 85% EU votes, if it is outwith the EU and countries are voting based on their interests and not an EU bloc then you might find that many countries would take a view that is different to the view of the EU as an institution.

    I’m simply projecting that some open minds where people can think of Europe without myopically seeing it as the EU might be beneficial and worth considering.
    Besides, Foxy is being dishonest or ignorant. Norway and Iceland are most certainly not in the EU and do not apply the majority of EU laws and regulations. ABout 28% of EU legislation is also applied in Norway, almost entirely related to trade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,101
    algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Would a lot of centrists vote Kemi to stop Nigel becoming PM? I think yes.

    No chance for this centrist!

    My seat is likely to be a Tory/Reform marginal, but I wouldn't vote Tory as I think they would just support a Farage minority government.
    A true Tory squeeze would be that all the people who could vote Tory either vote for Reform because they are the real thing, or vote for whoever isn't a Tory and can beat Reform (my ex-Tory vote), as voting Tory is a vote for a Reform government with Tory support. Leaving The Tories with almost no-one.

    My seat was won by the Tories with Reform second so not voting Tory elects Reform. Only Jenrick would definitely support a Farage government not abstain
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,393

    Nigelb said:

    The new US 'pragmatism'.
    Totally unideological.

    GLASHEEN: Antifa is our primary concern right now. That's the most immediate violent threat we're facing

    BENNIE THOMPSON: Where is antifa headquartered?

    GLASHEEN: ... ... ... we are building out the infrastructure right now

    THOMPSON: What does that mean?

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1999144887795490842

    They have completely lost it.
    I'm intrigued.

    When did these people ever have it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,345
    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Yes but the last sentence is an oddity. It's easier to expand a wheel than reinvent it.
    Agree with your sentiment vis a vis the EU but the pedant in me is troubled by the analogy - how do you expand a wheel?
  • Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
    Brexit supporters keep reinventing the EU in the same way that tech bros keep reinventing public transport.
    Remember when they used to call the EU the EUSSR?
  • ohnotnow said:

    Occurs to me that I haven't seen an obvious Russian troll here lately. Are they all busy in Italy, Hungary, Poland?

    Vanilla has made it harder for them to get through.
  • kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Yes but the last sentence is an oddity. It's easier to expand a wheel than reinvent it.
    Agree with your sentiment vis a vis the EU but the pedant in me is troubled by the analogy - how do you expand a wheel?
    Same as most things- put it in hot water.

    (Mostly physics pedantry, but it probably works as a motivational poster as well.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,101
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    For now even nationalist European leaders like Meloni are anti Putin. If Bardella and the AfD got in that migjt create a pro Russian axis with Hungary. By then though a Democrat might have been elected US President again

    I wouldn’t put hopes on a Democrat being President and having another shift from Trumpism - they might get in and think that the costs and risks of focussing on Europe aren’t worth it and the damage is permanent.

    Sadly I think there has been an irreversible shift. Europe as a continent needs to get its confidence back - you think that three European nations once ruked most of the world. There is a huge cultural soft power and a huge financial strength. They can play the US v China. Decoupling from the US also gives options globally wheee we aren’t the US lapdogs. There are potential positives but as I said, Europe has to get its confidence back and use its financial and soft power muscles to not be top dog but powerful and influential.

    Maybe a UN equivalent of the UN with all European nations rather than the EU is needed.
    A, Democrat would certainly fund Zelensky again even if long term remain most focused on Asia
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.
    Are there any alternatives to the EU as a bulwark for European interests that you are a fan of?
    I posted on the old thread by a mistake that maybe Europe needs its own “UN” outwith the EU where it can listen to all European voices but not be a tool of the EU. Europe has huge social capital, soft power, vast financial power and can be a huge military (defensive preferably) power but it has to be outside of the EU.

    This European UN can speak as a voice to China and the US, shorn of any concept of being a lapdog to the US so can perhaps be taken more at face value by Africa and Asia. We should be leveraging that if you want to deal with Europe (and that is the whole of Europe) you need to listen. But Europe needs to regain its self confidence, three countries effectively ruled most of the world, we aren’t weak, we aren’t stupid, we have power. But again, it can’t be an EU thing.
    Why can't it be an EU thing? You have more or less described the purpose of the EU.
    Because the EU isn’t for everyone. Shorn of its role in regulation, laws, finance, commerce, trade a European UN would be a pure geopolitics entity. The UN worked despite it not being like the EU as its efforts are focussed elsewhere than micromanaging its members.

    Whilst I get you are a remainder (this isn’t a dig at all) would you not see that maybe a pan European organisation which is inclusive of the UK, Norway, Switzerland would be a useful force projection? If not then what is the point of the UN or any other bloc.
    Switzerland is neutral and not going to change. Norway and Iceland are in the EEA so very closely aligned, it is only us and the Balkan microstates (some of which are pro-Russian) that are not in the EU.

    Any organisation that you describe would have 85% EU votes. There is no need to reinvent the wheel, just remain in European institutions, and Rejoin either EEA or EU.
    Re 85% EU votes, if it is outwith the EU and countries are voting based on their interests and not an EU bloc then you might find that many countries would take a view that is different to the view of the EU as an institution.

    I’m simply projecting that some open minds where people can think of Europe without myopically seeing it as the EU might be beneficial and worth considering.
    Besides, Foxy is being dishonest or ignorant. Norway and Iceland are most certainly not in the EU and do not apply the majority of EU laws and regulations. ABout 28% of EU legislation is also applied in Norway, almost entirely related to trade.
    Yes that is why I described them as EEA, which is functionally a tiny appendage of the EU.

    I would be happy with us rejoining the EEA so we could regain the advantages of the Single Market, but it would be more useful to have a seat at the top table and have a say in policy, hence full Rejoin is preferable.

    It isn't essential to our security, but then neither is NATO.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,352
    New AP/NORC poll on Trump’s approval per @interactivepolls.bsky.social

    🟢 Approve: 36%
    🟤 Disapprove: 61%

    Trump's net approval on key issues

    🟢 Border Security: +2
    🟤 Crime: -12 (was +8 in Aug)
    🟤 Immigration: -22 (new low)
    🟤 Foreign policy: -23
    🟤 The Economy: -36 (new low)
    🟤 Healthcare: -40 (new low)

    https://bsky.app/profile/joncooper-us.bsky.social/post/3m7qb64s2es2n

    Interesting discrepancy between "Border Security" and "Immigration" perhaps because of the ICE kidnapping squads in cities away from the border itself.

    Trump Is deeply underwater on the Economy and Foreign Policy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,390
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social‬

    The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion.

    I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m7q6klczks2w

    No comments on this post? Don't know if confiscating Russian assets is a game changer, but it'll certainly make the Russians hopping mad. It's been a long time coming, and frankly I didn't think the EU would ever do it. I'm not normally a fan of the EU, but all credit to them if this is enacted.

    So... This is not the full kahuna. The assets have been taken from the Russians, but they haven't been given to the Ukrainians to pay for their defense.

    It's a welcome step, but it's not all the way there.
    UvdL's proposal:
    to channel the immobilised Russian assets into a zero-interest reparations loan to Ukraine. The assets are now mature and therefore liquid and fungible.

    Kyiv would only repay the loan if Moscow paid for war reparations.


    OTOH the Kyiv Independent reports:

    Valerie Urbain, Euroclear’s сhief executive officer, voiced her opposition to the "reparation loan" mechanism and said that she was ready to challenge this decision in court.

    That would be interesting.

    The EU appears to on fairly solid ground.

    https://x.com/JorgeLiboreiro/status/1999180104082067572
    Article 122 comes with a double advantage: it bypasses the European Parliament and only requires a qualified majority, so it helps the EU act fast.

    The Commission proposed using Article 122 to prohibit the return of sovereing assets to Russia.

    In practice, an indefinite ban.

    In a novel interpretation, the Commission argued the shockwaves unleashed by Russia's war constituted an economic emergency for the EU as a whole.

    "Preventing that funds are transferred to Russia is urgently required to limit the damage to the Union's economy," the text said...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,262
    @JakeSherman

    INDIANA STATE SENATE has rejected redistricting.

    19-31.

    TRUMP's push for a 9-0 map failed. Big defeat for the Trump administration.

    https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/1999232240904208712?s=20
  • MAGAZINER: How many veterans have you deported?

    NOEM: We haven't deported veterans

    MAGAZINER: We are now joined on Zoom by a combat veteran you deported to Korea


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1999152699590287446
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,334
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25691415.john-curtice-gives-verdict-poll-predicts-pro-independence-majority/

    In re prsevious thread: the blessed Professor Curtis has spoken.

    Basically much as before, only Labour going down more quickly.

    Well, I knew there had to be someone who subscribes to McPravda as it is "affectionately" known.

    All the same interesting prognosis, tho I couldnt see more than the headline. Due, presumably, to SNP holding their constituencies against divided opposition, and SNP voters switching to Green on the list.

    Perhaps less likely to be pro-Indy majority in terms of actual voting numbers though?
    You think Prof Curtis is biased/lying, feel free to say so more explicitly. Edit: of course you wouldn't, I thinK: but the wording is decidedly ambiguous.

    Actually, it's a fairly dampening forecast all round.
    Eh? Not following you at all.

    Why would I think Curtice biased? And what did I write that suggested it?

    My suggestion is that pro-Indy maj could be delivered with less than 50% of voters supporting pro- Indy parties.

    I'm guessing that the forecasts are showing main change from 21 is Reform and Greens up, and everyone else down. Like rest of UK.
  • I'm sure Europe's preferred strategy to meet this is defence cuts and more welfare spending.

    Why is anyone upset that Trump described Europe's leaders as 'weak' ?

    Europe's leaders ARE weak.
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