politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft finds errors in his Doncaster N, Thanet S & H
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Those odds of 7/4 from Ladbrokes on UKIP winning between 10% - 15% of the UK vote, although already trimmed back, still look quite attractive imo, but DYOR.Sunil_Prasannan said:Part-ELBOW inc. Opinium (with just? YouGov left):
Lab lead 1.5%
UKIP 14.8%
LD lead over Grns 1.0%0 -
SeanT Hopefully May's immigration controls will have an effect, a returned Jihadee was jailed for 12 years last week http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2942602/British-Jihadi-nicknamed-Barbie-faked-death-Syria-sneak-UK-recruit-terrorists-jailed-12-years.html.
If not the prospect of Farage in No10 and Marine Le Pen in the Elysee becomes very real0 -
Nonsense.HYUFD said:It is perfectly possible Clegg, Cable and Alexander could all lose their seats.
Clegg and Cable will win very comfortably. Alexander is in danger.
High profile constituency polls without named candidates are of limited value. Reputable pollsters in the US wouldn't dream of a generic poll in a Congressional seat a few months out from the election.
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MG..If you ever crawl out of your damp moss covered little croft you might find there is another world out there..forgive us for not waiting for you....pillock.0
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B+ll+cks. The point of terrorism is to use it sparingly with the threat that you *can* use it your most potent weapon. Go round smiting innocent people wholesale and you are upsetting so many people and governments that you are digging your own grave, even if you gain in the short term.SeanT said:
To terrorise. Clearly.Flightpath said:
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?SeanT said:Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
http://www.raqqa-sl.com/en/?p=482
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-06/police-release-cctv-images-after-army-cadets-were-threatened-with-beheading/
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
They may make films with filming expertise but immolating a Bedouin Pilot alive if you are anywhere in arabia is suicidal recklessness of the highest order. Rule one in the middle east - YOU CROSS THE BEDOIUN AT YOUR PERIL.
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Is it just polling, or is it Lord Ashcroft polling?TheScreamingEagles said:
The morning thread (assuming nothing major happens overnight), will try and explain why that is happening (because there is polling to back it up)peter_from_putney said:Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats:
Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
I don't see any hint of an apology from the noble Lord, nor anger at him from OGH on behalf of the PB community, for grossly negligent misinformation. If he had badged his polls in the usual format as in "Pollco. for Lord Ashcroft" his position would be different. If he puts his own brand on them, he takes ownership of the errors. Vanity project goes tits-up.
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antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.Danny565 said:Looking at the list of Lib Dem seats in order of majority - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/ - it really does strike you just how few absolutely 100% safe seats they have.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.0 -
Uncle Vladimir. In return he gets a client state in a strategic position. Thought that was obvious.rcs1000 said:MikeK
The Greeks want the impossible.
Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future.
Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Who pays?0 -
Please, I can almost sense the salivating glee from here. I'm sure you'll be deliriously happy to see the LDs smashed to oblivion irrespective of what that might or might not mean to the governance of this country.Danny565 said:Looking at the list of Lib Dem seats in order of majority - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/ - it really does strike you just how few absolutely 100% safe seats they have.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
Seriously, would Nick Clegg losing his seat be a disaster ? Probably not, in truth. Liberal and LD safe seats are almost a contradiction in terms and Sir Archibald Sinclair's defeat in 1945 was the last time one of the three main party leaders lost their seat and the problem with that was it ushered in the hapless Clement Davies as leader.
IF Nick Clegg loses in Hallam it will be the cleanest of clean breaks with the era of the Coalition - no arguments. Probably less symbolic than Portillo's defeat in 1997 but of significance. The survivors will be unencumbered to pick a new leader - I wouldn't rule out Tom Brake as a challenger to Tim Farron.
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Don't be such a drama queen pussy.SeanT said:
To terrorise. Clearly.Flightpath said:
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?SeanT said:Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
http://www.raqqa-sl.com/en/?p=482
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-06/police-release-cctv-images-after-army-cadets-were-threatened-with-beheading/
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
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Typical Labour. All are equal but our pet client groups are more equal than others, so will get higher priority if they complain to the police.TheScreamingEagles said:People convicted of homophobic, transgender or disability hate crime would be put on a “blacklist” to warn future employers of past misdemeanours under new proposals by Labour.
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/07/labour-blacklist-hate-crime-uk-antisemitism-islamophobia-homophobia
How frustrating that Cameron has pandered to this nonsense meaning I will have to Vote UKIP to teach the Tories a lesson.0 -
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.peter_from_putney said:
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.Danny565 said:Looking at the list of Lib Dem seats in order of majority - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/ - it really does strike you just how few absolutely 100% safe seats they have.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
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WankersTheScreamingEagles said:People convicted of homophobic, transgender or disability hate crime would be put on a “blacklist” to warn future employers of past misdemeanours under new proposals by Labour.
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/07/labour-blacklist-hate-crime-uk-antisemitism-islamophobia-homophobia
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On topic
If we don't know who does the ashcroft constituency polls, isn't there a problem making a judgement on them?
If it were ICM and they have ukip 1pt behind in s Thanet without Farage named, I'd have my mortgage on at 1/4... If it were Survation id be a layer at evens!0 -
Hate crimes always somewhat perplexed me. If you murder someone because he shags your wife, rather than because of his skin colour, he isn't any less dead.
I wonder if the racist hate crime factor will see those convicted of Rotherham-related sexual assaults get longer sentences.0 -
I hope @Morris_Dancer is watching "Dads Army" tonight.
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Mr. W, are you sure? The last government tried 90 days without detention, the current one stupidly wants to try and save everything anyone does on the internet for a year (at the same time making it massively less secure).0
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ExactlyMorris_Dancer said:Hate crimes always somewhat perplexed me. If you murder someone because he shags your wife, rather than because of his skin colour, he isn't any less dead.
I wonder if the racist hate crime factor will see those convicted of Rotherham-related sexual assaults get longer sentences.
And of course not, it's a one way street
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Indeed.peter_from_putney said:My memory is how Marcus gave up work to devote himself whole heartedly to winning Torbay. He spent five years on nothing else and at the end he lost. I thought it was sad
For those of us who took Marcus at his word and bet on him being elected as the MP for Torbay is is somewhat difficult to share such sympathy, all the more so as he was fully aware that this is a betting site and that punters would invest as a result of the fulsome confidence he expressed at the time as regards his chances of winning. In the event he lost by a very considerable margin .
There were certainly PBers who lost money from believing what Marcus Wood was claiming, fortunately I wasn't one of them.
By contrast Nick Palmer gave honest accounts of what was happening in Broxtowe.
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I'm presently attending a WEA course on "Islam in the Modern World", the speaker being an imam and former jihadist, now working with the Home Office.
His view, made very clear last week, is that returning jihadists should be "quarantined" and people like him given the opportunity to make them see the error of their ways. If, of course, they don't already.
He's also concerned at the amount of money going from the UK to "suspect charities" elsewhere, given that moslems are obligated to give a small(it) but defined part of their income to charity.
It's a very interesting course, and if, so far I've learned how to distinguish between the beliefs of Sunni and Shia practitioners, that would be something.. What has also come across is that the speaker, and, he says, many, many of his co-religionists want to integrate, and would rather do that than be treated as "different".0 -
Mr. W, just flicked it on.0
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He gets easier to swot by the day doesn't he.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course they were not anti-EU. They wanted to stay in both the EU and the Euro but thought they could do so on their own terms rather than submitting to the will of the EU. Sounds rather like the Tories and their unrealistic expectations for EU reform/renegotiation.Flightpath said:
So the unrealistic anti EU coalition trying to be all things to all men falls apart, in the manner of Wylee Cypotee over the Grand Canyon, when confronted by the illogic of its position?MikeK said:
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.rcs1000 said:By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
....
....
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
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"smiting innocent people wholesale" is bad policy, therefore IS can't be doing it? Do you follow the news much?Paul_Mid_Beds said:
B+ll+cks. The point of terrorism is to use it sparingly with the threat that you *can* use it your most potent weapon. Go round smiting innocent people wholesale and you are upsetting so many people and governments that you are digging your own grave, even if you gain in the short term.SeanT said:
To terrorise. Clearly.Flightpath said:
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?SeanT said:Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
http://www.raqqa-sl.com/en/?p=482
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-06/police-release-cctv-images-after-army-cadets-were-threatened-with-beheading/
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
They may make films with filming expertise but immolating a Bedouin Pilot alive if you are anywhere in arabia is suicidal recklessness of the highest order. Rule one in the middle east - YOU CROSS THE BEDOIUN AT YOUR PERIL.
And stop trying to sound like Lawrence of Arabia re-imagined for the young teen readership market. It makes you sound a bit of a twit.0 -
What about Nick's "Conservatives for Palmer"?another_richard said:
Indeed.peter_from_putney said:My memory is how Marcus gave up work to devote himself whole heartedly to winning Torbay. He spent five years on nothing else and at the end he lost. I thought it was sad
For those of us who took Marcus at his word and bet on him being elected as the MP for Torbay is is somewhat difficult to share such sympathy, all the more so as he was fully aware that this is a betting site and that punters would invest as a result of the fulsome confidence he expressed at the time as regards his chances of winning. In the event he lost by a very considerable margin .
There were certainly PBers who lost money from believing what Marcus Wood was claiming, fortunately I wasn't one of them.
By contrast Nick Palmer gave honest accounts of what was happening in Broxtowe.
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That's Matthew 'the people are out of touch not the politicians, Parris ?HYUFD said:Matthew Paris on how Abbott's problems downunder are a warning to Cameron not to turn to populism
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4346962.ece
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No Mike, I'm not for the simple reason that Sporting's sell price is 26 seats, i.e. within 2 or 3 seats of what I expect the LibDems to win, as I thought I'd made clear in the post above to which you are replying!MikeSmithson said:
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.peter_from_putney said:
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.Danny565 said:Looking at the list of Lib Dem seats in order of majority - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/ - it really does strike you just how few absolutely 100% safe seats they have.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
BTW are you buying LibDem seats at 28?0 -
His Lordship's polling in the LibDem seats was undertaken when they were several points higher in the polls. Given that the maths for LibDems saving 30-40 seats required lost deposit levels of support elsewhere, surely basic maths says the LibDems are now taking a disproportionate hit in those remaining yellow pockets?MikeSmithson said:
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.peter_from_putney said:
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.Danny565 said:Looking at the list of Lib Dem seats in order of majority - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/ - it really does strike you just how few absolutely 100% safe seats they have.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
That approach is entirely consistent with his Lordship's polling showing Labour having an extinction event in Scotland. There just aren't enough votes left to prevent it.
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Well I agree and this was the point of my original reply. Two people shouting some nasty crudities does not make an 'regiment of English speakers' preparing for torture. They drove off.JackW said:
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.SeanT said:
To terrorise. Clearly.Flightpath said:
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?SeanT said:Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
http://www.raqqa-sl.com/en/?p=482
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-06/police-release-cctv-images-after-army-cadets-were-threatened-with-beheading/
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
I can understand why some people want to stir the pot - they want to smear all muslims and win votes. I would rather leave inciting race war to ISIS.
We must protect ourselves but as you imply the main defence against terror is not to be terrorised. And of course we need to invest in intelligence. In terms of ISIS there are enough people locally with the will and guts to fight them, we should help as and where we can.0 -
Look we survived almost weekly and sometimes almost daily bombings by pIRA for thirty years without any of the insane panic that we have over this lot. There was a Lee Rigby every month. Lee Rigby ten or twenty times? How about the Deal Barracks Bombing and Hyde Park and Regent's Park bombings.SeanT said:
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.
I do wish people would stop being so over dramatic about this lot. It just does their job for them. The adage Do Not Feed The Troll applies to them as well.0 -
Such a laugh - where does Russia get the money to prop up a broken backed economy that would bleed him white?Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Uncle Vladimir. In return he gets a client state in a strategic position. Thought that was obvious.rcs1000 said:MikeK
The Greeks want the impossible.
Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future.
Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Who pays?0 -
The expression "cognitive dissonance" is overused these days, but really...MikeSmithson said:
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.peter_from_putney said:
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.Danny565 said:Looking at the list of Lib Dem seats in order of majority - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libdemdefence/ - it really does strike you just how few absolutely 100% safe seats they have.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
Do you mean his polling of LD-CON battleground, or do you mean polling of LD-CON battleground seats conducted in his name by a well-known but relatively new polling firm which he won't be using again? And as you don't now know the answer to that question in respect of any Ashcroft poll, had you considered demoting them from the epistemic status that to take them with a pinch of salt is to be a "denier"?0 -
As the undisputed TOTY of PB you are talking absolute bilge.SeanT said:
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?JackW said:
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.SeanT said:
To terrorise. Clearly.Flightpath said:
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?SeanT said:Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
http://www.raqqa-sl.com/en/?p=482
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-06/police-release-cctv-images-after-army-cadets-were-threatened-with-beheading/
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.
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Yes, BJO amuses himself (but no one else) by Baxtering every poll and posting that as his conclusion.Dair said:
Those numbers still mean Miliband is PM.peter_from_putney said:Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats:
Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
(Does EICIPM stand for Ed is Crap is Prime Minister? Not certain and its hard to work out)0 -
freedom of speech melting away fast in Great Britain 2015, I notice no mention of christianphobia, and what about the muslim who speaks against homosexuality because of his belief, or the homosexual who questions him, is one guilty of islamphobia, and the other of homophobia? why dont these islington politicians just concentrate of the real criminals in the UK, the rapists in Rotherham, the terrorists (not militants as the bbc call them) who kill people on the streets, and maybe think about the real concerns of the British people like the economy, jobs, public safety, protecting the young and vulnerable. PC has gone mad in this country, and frankly people are fed up with itisam said:
WankersTheScreamingEagles said:People convicted of homophobic, transgender or disability hate crime would be put on a “blacklist” to warn future employers of past misdemeanours under new proposals by Labour.
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/07/labour-blacklist-hate-crime-uk-antisemitism-islamophobia-homophobia0 -
JackW We will see, but I believe the US often has congressional polls, for example for local news0
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AnotherRichard The very same0
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I think she was banned for criticising the boss's love affair with the Lord.Peter_the_Punter said:
Audrey told us we could start paying attention to polls from the beginning of February.Big_G_NorthWales said:The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Where is Audrey?0 -
Haven't the Canadians discussed removing citizenship/passports and the right to return to Canada from any Canadian who signs up with ISIS?SeanT said:
ANY suspected returning jihadist should be put in quarantine (a UK Guantanamo) at the very least. We don't have the resources to monitor all of them once they are in, so keep them out, or lock them up.HYUFD said:SeanT Hopefully May's immigration controls will have an effect, a returned Jihadee was jailed for 12 years last week http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2942602/British-Jihadi-nicknamed-Barbie-faked-death-Syria-sneak-UK-recruit-terrorists-jailed-12-years.html.
If not the prospect of Farage in No10 and Marine Le Pen in the Elysee becomes very real
Note that the Charlie Hebdo killers were returning jihadists, who fought for AQ in Yemen. Why did the French let them back in??
We need to wise up, and get a bit tougher. If you've been out there to fight, you stay there. If you want to come back in, we put you in a special unit, til we are sure you don't have rabies.
That said I am sadly sure there are already enough returned jihadists and "lone wolves" inside the UK to do horrible stuff, and I fully expect them to enact it in due course.0 -
Quite right too.Charles said:
I think she was banned for criticising the boss's love affair with the Lord.Peter_the_Punter said:
Audrey told us we could start paying attention to polls from the beginning of February.Big_G_NorthWales said:The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Where is Audrey?
What OGH and His Lordship get up to in the privacy of their polling booth is nobody's concern but theirs.0 -
Quite, the hate laws are some of the most dreadful laws put onto the statute book because they breach the principle that everyone is equal before the law.isam said:
ExactlyMorris_Dancer said:Hate crimes always somewhat perplexed me. If you murder someone because he shags your wife, rather than because of his skin colour, he isn't any less dead.
I wonder if the racist hate crime factor will see those convicted of Rotherham-related sexual assaults get longer sentences.
And of course not, it's a one way street
And you are quite right, it is not a one way street. Were we to get a rather more right wing govenment than the present one they could use the hate laws to persecute minorities fiercely without so much as secondary legislation being passed.
For example police could be asked to treat hate crime against white people by ethnic minorities with the utmost resources and seriousness at all times (the other way round, well there isn't unlimited public money you know) and of course under McPherson rules its a racism if the victim percieves it to be racist. So when Mr Patel drops litter in his neighbours garden he gets two years because he did it out of racial hatred for his white neighbour.
Similarly, police could be intstructed to give priority to anyone who claims the crime they are a vitcim of (any crime not neccesarily a sexual one) was due to a homosexual attacker being hating of them because they are heterosexual, so when poor old Mr Humphries has a bit of a dispute with his neighbour Mrs Whitehouse he finds hes up for two years for hate aggravated harassment.
If you think thats not possible here, have a look at who's leading the polls in France.0 -
Which would probably mean there are some decent bargains available...rcs1000 said:
Also, because there might be civil unrest...MikeK said:
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.0 -
Pathetic scare-mongering ! Crying wolf.SeanT said:
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?JackW said:
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.SeanT said:
To terrorise. Clearly.Flightpath said:
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?SeanT said:Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
http://www.raqqa-sl.com/en/?p=482
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-06/police-release-cctv-images-after-army-cadets-were-threatened-with-beheading/
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.0 -
But bring your own minder!Charles said:
Which would probably mean there are some decent bargains available...rcs1000 said:
Also, because there might be civil unrest...peter_from_putney said:
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
BTW Charles, have you had an opportunity to call in at the Finborough Arms as yet?0 -
Can't say I miss her. Carlotta seems to have vanished too.Charles said:
I think she was banned for criticising the boss's love affair with the Lord.Peter_the_Punter said:
Audrey told us we could start paying attention to polls from the beginning of February.Big_G_NorthWales said:The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Where is Audrey?0 -
That's a little unfair. SYRIZA are deluded in every way, not merely regarding the EU. In fact, probably the only reason the EU has managed a coherent response to Greece is because SYRIZA is so manifestly crazy...Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course they were not anti-EU. They wanted to stay in both the EU and the Euro but thought they could do so on their own terms rather than submitting to the will of the EU. Sounds rather like the Tories and their unrealistic expectations for EU reform/renegotiation.Flightpath said:
So the unrealistic anti EU coalition trying to be all things to all men falls apart, in the manner of Wylee Cypotee over the Grand Canyon, when confronted by the illogic of its position?MikeK said:
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.rcs1000 said:By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
....
....
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.0 -
The Greeks, thats how empires work. In any case, he wouldn't be bled white the creditors of Greece would be when Uncle Vladimir said Nyet to his latest new province repaying them, while building a vast new naval port near the Dardanelles and muttering darkly about Turkeys illegal annexation of Western Thrace and Constantinople (which is in realsch the capital of Russia)Flightpath said:
Such a laugh - where does Russia get the money to prop up a broken backed economy that would bleed him white?Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Uncle Vladimir. In return he gets a client state in a strategic position. Thought that was obvious.rcs1000 said:MikeK
The Greeks want the impossible.
Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future.
Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Who pays?0 -
new thread
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2 Islamic terrorists back on streets after serving just half their sentences http://t.co/9EDOuoSg10 pic.twitter.com/ey16WX8w7D
— Tommy Robinson (@TRobinsonNewEra) February 7, 20150 -
It is going to happen, though. Sean is right about that. A lot of our training is now tailored to dealing with the types of attacks that are expected to take place.JackW said:
As the undisputed TOTY of PB you are talking absolute bilge.SeanT said:
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?JackW said:
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.SeanT said:
To terrorise. Clearly.Flightpath said:
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?SeanT said:Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
http://www.raqqa-sl.com/en/?p=482
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
http://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/update/2015-02-06/police-release-cctv-images-after-army-cadets-were-threatened-with-beheading/
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.
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