It's hard to avoid the conclusion now that Nick Clegg is up against it. Which is a shame because I've bet a fair bit on him keeping his seat.
Hold your nerve. Still some time to go yet and it would be a historic event for a party leader to lose their seat. This hasn't happened for a very long time (Balfour - 1906?).
Liberal leader Archibald Sinclair was defeated at Caithness & Sutherland in 1945. The leader of Plaid Cymru was defeated twice at Carmarthen - 1970 and 1979. Gordon Wilson as SNP leader lost Dundee East in 1987. Most recently, of course, was Peter Robinson's rejection in 2010!
If Clegg does lose, then it seems to me that it is game over for a Tory-LD coalition. Who would be their temporary leader during negotiations? Vince? Farron?
That rather implies that Clegg's opinion is going to matter. I suspect that a good few LibDem MPs will not give a toss what he thinks!
What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.
You pick up on the increase in exurban commuters / Conservative voters.
But you miss the associated demographic changes within urban areas - which are pro-Labour.
Which, for example, makes the likes of Enfield North and Brentford (and Enfield Southgate and Ilford North) far more likely to change hands than their majorities suggest.
While Enfield North is in Greater London, this particular part of London Politically goes out of London in reality into what is better described as Hertfordshire Green Belt.
For Brentford and Isleworth, I said "Tory Chiswick, Labour Isleworth. Good barometer seat for London.Another one Labour need to win if they are serious" which aligns with your view
Enfield Southgate and Ilford North are not considered as they are not among the thirty most marginal seats, however I think them more likely to change hands than Enfield North, because they are areas that said commuters are moving out from!
Ilford North, which is where I'm based, was only 44% White British in 2011.
Alas, this movement of people in to semi rural areas around cities also has an element of "White Flight" to it, which is not good for future national unity.
Two women called at my door and asked what bread I ate. When I said white, they gave me a lecture on the benefits of brown bread for 30 minutes. I think they were Hovis Witnesses.
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Seven wheelchair athletes have been banned from the Paralympics after they tested positive for WD40. ---------------------------------------------
Once again the hunches of PBers are proved to have been correct. If i remember correctly we thought Farage was probably closer to winning in Thanet than the poll originally said and that Ed couldn't be in danger of losing his seat.
Me and isam have a bet on Ed getting over 50% of the vote in Doncaster. Me saying yes, him saying no. I had given up on it, but looks like I am in with a chance. We have beer and lunch on it, I believe.
Do you have a date and venue in mind, or does the winner decide?
What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.
Not sure about that, I think they have a good chance of holding 30 seats, which is more than they won in 1983 with 26% of the vote.
Conservative supporters in northern Lib Dem seats need to realise that they should vote tactically for the Lib Dem candidate to keep out Labour.
That way they might stand a chance of another coalition between Conservatives and Lib Dems which has worked reasonably well for the country in the government debt crisis which still continues.
What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.
Not sure about that, I think they have a good chance of holding 30 seats, which is more than they won in 1983 with 26% of the vote.
Ireland are 12 on Ladbrokes to win the World Cup, 1/3 the odds each way.
Decided to back them, each way. Not with a hefty stake, of course, but I think of the four teams with shorter odds, England won't win it, and Australia won't win it. That leaves the All Blacks, Springboks and the Irish, I think.
My birthday today so off for lunch. Had an agreeable morning, including an interesting chat with the first Labour Party canvasser I've seen. Told him that housing was IMO more important than the NHS.
What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
I am sure about 70% of the public think politicians are generally awful but also about 70% think their local MP is a good egg and not like the rest of 'em.
Not so much.
"Most people rate their local MP pretty much the same as they rate MPs in general, and a minority are a bit more positive about their local MP than they are about MPs in general. "
My birthday today so off for lunch. Had an agreeable morning, including an interesting chat with the first Labour Party canvasser I've seen. Told him that housing was IMO more important than the NHS.
You pick up on the increase in exurban commuters / Conservative voters.
But you miss the associated demographic changes within urban areas - which are pro-Labour.
Which, for example, makes the likes of Enfield North and Brentford (and Enfield Southgate and Ilford North) far more likely to change hands than their majorities suggest.
While Enfield North is in Greater London, this particular part of London Politically goes out of London in reality into what is better described as Hertfordshire Green Belt.
For Brentford and Isleworth, I said "Tory Chiswick, Labour Isleworth. Good barometer seat for London.Another one Labour need to win if they are serious" which aligns with your view
Enfield Southgate and Ilford North are not considered as they are not among the thirty most marginal seats, however I think them more likely to change hands than Enfield North, because they are areas that said commuters are moving out from!
Ilford North, which is where I'm based, was only 44% White British in 2011.
That will of course favour Labour - the problem is turnout...
Once again the hunches of PBers are proved to have been correct. If i remember correctly we thought Farage was probably closer to winning in Thanet than the poll originally said and that Ed couldn't be in danger of losing his seat.
Me and isam have a bet on Ed getting over 50% of the vote in Doncaster. Me saying yes, him saying no. I had given up on it, but looks like I am in with a chance. We have beer and lunch on it, I believe.
All to play for!
At one stage it looked like you were looking for reasons to void it...
Two women called at my door and asked what bread I ate. When I said white, they gave me a lecture on the benefits of brown bread for 30 minutes. I think they were Hovis Witnesses.
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Seven wheelchair athletes have been banned from the Paralympics after they tested positive for WD40. ---------------------------------------------
I'll get my coat......
In Holland’s schools language lessons are single period only.
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Another hair-raising story from Rotherham. Mikkil @MikkiL 14m14 minutes ago It's the social workers who are racist, say Slovak parents in UKIP fostering scandal: The Mail ... http://ln.is/www.dailymail.co.uk/1D8Pg … via @MailOnline
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers. OK, but whats the connection to UKIP?
DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL European Parliamentary Election on Thursday 22 May 2014 Result of poll for the local counting area of Huntingdonshire
I, Joanne Lancaster, being the Local Returning Officer at the above election, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for the Huntingdonshire local counting area in the said election is as follows:
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now 831 British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care 239 Christian Peoples Alliance 344 Conservative Party – For real change in Europe 15,335 English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean! 397 Green Party 3,397 Labour Party 4,587 Liberal Democrats 3,589 NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights 139 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 16,765
DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL European Parliamentary Election on Thursday 22 May 2014 Result of poll for the local counting area of Huntingdonshire
I, Joanne Lancaster, being the Local Returning Officer at the above election, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for the Huntingdonshire local counting area in the said election is as follows:
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now 831 British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care 239 Christian Peoples Alliance 344 Conservative Party – For real change in Europe 15,335 English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean! 397 Green Party 3,397 Labour Party 4,587 Liberal Democrats 3,589 NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights 139 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 16,765
OT. Is there any reason why the Tories have chosen Grant Shapps to be their party chairman? Surely the last person you'd want in such a sensitive position is a spiv like him. If it's for his dark Faustian skills then why not give him a back room job?
The Conservatives have joined efforts to “decapitate” the Liberal Democrats by unseating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency.....However, the local Conservative candidate made clear that no quarter would be given in the election fight. Ian Walker said that Mr Clegg’s character would be an issue, with voters believing that he was “damaged goods”.
Mr Walker said that the Conservatives would end up benefiting from Labour’s efforts to unseat Mr Clegg, with former Lib Dem voters coming to them to keep out Ed Miliband.
“I don’t want to decapitate the Liberals — I don’t care about them — I just want to de-Clegg Sheffield,” Mr Walker, a local businessman, said.
Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.
I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.
However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.
Imagine May the 7th.
The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.
Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.
Which bits of Scotland ?
Highlands and islands or the deprived "Yes" areas of West Scotland with massive swings against Labour ?
DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL European Parliamentary Election on Thursday 22 May 2014 Result of poll for the local counting area of Huntingdonshire
I, Joanne Lancaster, being the Local Returning Officer at the above election, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for the Huntingdonshire local counting area in the said election is as follows:
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now 831 British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care 239 Christian Peoples Alliance 344 Conservative Party – For real change in Europe 15,335 English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean! 397 Green Party 3,397 Labour Party 4,587 Liberal Democrats 3,589 NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights 139 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 16,765
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.
I'm not quite sure what is so racist about the tweet that MikeK shared, but I do know who is a racist. It is you, for your obvious belief that only members of the white Anglo-Saxon majority can be racist.
IMO Huntingdon is a seat where UKIP will get a lot of votes but without any chance of winning. The Tories are too strong. UKIP will certainly be the main opposition after May though.
"I'm not quite sure what is so racist about the tweet that MikeK shared, but I do know who is a racist. It is you, for your obvious belief that only members of the white Anglo-Saxon majority can be racist."
To try to suggest any disreputable behaviour is stereotypical of a particular race is racist. No ifs no buts......
The mystery is that Mike allows these people to soil his site
Not sure what that shows us, apart from nothing. It is 17 years old and appears to be a study based on cases resulting in convictions, which obviously will not include anything like the Rotherham cases which have gone unchecked for years. What has been going on in Rotherham and other cities has been brushed under the carpet until recently, it was certainly hidden from view in 1998. To use it as evidence is to perpetuate the same mentality that has let it unchecked for years
@OldKingCole That particular article points out striking similarities to all the other cases. Convenient omissions, collusion, and lessons learned. It carries on like this every time, it is so horrific that the public assumes it is a one off instead of a pointer to something far larger. Yes, investigate taxi companies and late night takeaways, but don't assume that that of itself will solve anything more than a small fraction of the abuse..
Not sure what that shows us, apart from nothing. It is 17 years old and appears to be a study based on cases resulting in convictions, which obviously will not include anything like the Rotherham cases which have gone unchecked for years. What has been going on in Rotherham and other cities has been brushed under the carpet until recently, it was certainly hidden from view in 1998. To use it as evidence is to perpetuate the same mentality that has let it unchecked for years
Agree with you about the “value” but it is indicative of the situation. I still think that the fact that outlines a situation thatr had gone on for years underlines how endemic that sort of behaviour is. As I said upthread, that judge is goping to have a difficult task.
@JohnLilburne In the case of that article, how long did the individuals get away with it, and are you assuming that no one else was doing the same thing with impunity?
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.
"I'm not quite sure what is so racist about the tweet that MikeK shared, but I do know who is a racist. It is you, for your obvious belief that only members of the white Anglo-Saxon majority can be racist."
To try to suggest any disreputable behaviour is stereotypical of a particular race is racist. No ifs no buts......
The mystery is that Mike allows these people to soil his site
Well your comment that you were surprised that MikeK posted this as a member of an ethnic minority shows that you are not surprised if a member of the ethnic majority does so. You are clearly imputing that a disreputable activity is stereotypical of a particular ethnic group. It is you, sir, who show yourself to be a racist by that remark.
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans.
I thought most child sexual abuse was carried out my members of the family, whether parents, step-parents, fosterers, etc?
Quite, if that's a real quote it seems to be wrong in almost every element - quite offensive to imagine that people not in relationships are somehow more likely to be deviants.
@JohnLilburne "If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour...." Politicians, bankers, police, pop stars, and Mr James from The Muse Cottage in Skittery Trumpet? (the latter only practising during holidays to Goa or Banckock) There is no fruckin "type", they are in every walk of life and of every race and culture. Play little games with politics if you like, but you are doing a disservice to the victims.
"Well your comment that you were surprised that MikeK posted this as a member of an ethnic minority shows that you are not surprised if a member of the ethnic majority does so
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans."
No but what is unacceptable is to draw any inferences about Italian-Americans. As a member of an ethnic minority MikeK should be more aware than most of the damage that can be wrought by creating stereotypes. There are plenty of propaganda films which make the point perfectly which I would post if I didn't think there was such a willing audience.
@JohnLilburne "If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour...." Politicians, bankers, police, pop stars, and Mr James from The Muse Cottage in Skittery Trumpet? (the latter only practising during holidays to Goa or Banckock) There is no fruckin "type", they are in every walk of life and of every race and culture. Play little games with politics if you like, but you are doing a disservice to the victims.
Not only that, but playing politics with the issue will detract from a proper investigation.
I'm am absolutely not a racist, but Sarah Champion MP is obviously an inverted racist as she deliberately targets WHITE MEN as rapists and child abusers, when she knew full well that the vast majority of perpetrators in Rotherham were of Pakistani muslim stock. Helped no doubt by some native whites out for what they could get.
I say it like I see it, and I would speak out against people of any race or religion if it was involved in these vile practises.
It's a pity that you support a Labour party that is sick in outlook, with policies of destruction and the blatant selling of the UK to the EU as quick as can be accomplished, in the hope of a socialist heaven. Where I concur with the original tweeter is in the slogan: Kill Socialism. Hear, hear!
I pointed months ago that Lord A's polls had some basic mistakes as if some had rushed to complete it and fill in the numbers without double checking , however I didn't knew that it was so broad based.
I'm afraid that most of Lord A's constituency polls might have the same mistakes, if that were the case then it's back to the drawing board and back to UNS, at least we have some ICM and Survation constituency polls.
Not sure what that shows us, apart from nothing. It is 17 years old and appears to be a study based on cases resulting in convictions, which obviously will not include anything like the Rotherham cases which have gone unchecked for years. What has been going on in Rotherham and other cities has been brushed under the carpet until recently, it was certainly hidden from view in 1998. To use it as evidence is to perpetuate the same mentality that has let it unchecked for years
Agree with you about the “value” but it is indicative of the situation. I still think that the fact that outlines a situation thatr had gone on for years underlines how endemic that sort of behaviour is. As I said upthread, that judge is goping to have a difficult task.
Yes I agree that the article shows the depth and breadth of the problem, as it was "traditionally" seen in 1998 (and has presumably gone on since). What I don't accept is Smarmeron's apparent view that this means that we shouldn't get too excited about the organised gang-based trafficking going on in Rotherham etc. The truth is that this is in addition to the endemic child abuse we already knew about and an additional source of concern.
@OldKingCole One can only hope that justice will not be blinded again, but I am far from optimistic. e.g. (from the earlier article)
"For example, police now invest relatively little time in the surveillance of public toilets where gay men go cottaging. The one thing that is likely still to trigger such an operation is a complaint that under-aged boys are involved – unless, that is, the toilets in question happen to be those behind the Royal Courts of Justice in the Strand, in which case, under the terms of a long-standing Metropolitan Police policy, the operation will take place only if it has the approval of an officer of the rank of commander or above. According to experienced London officers, the reason is that those toilets are used by High Court judges and barristers, and the Metropolitan Police have always said they do not want to encounter such a powerful offender without special authority."
See the boys are at it again pasting the Telegraphs odious Iain Martin and picking on a 20 year old women. I actually watched a video post of this young candidate whom I have never met and it was intelligent, unscripted and refreshing.
None of the boys attacking her know the slightest thing about her but why let that stop your misogynist bullying?. In any case I suspect she will make more of on public life ceratinly than Iain Martin ever will. I really do hope she gives wee Dougie , a man who didn't even have the guts to defend his own sister, a sound beating.
TSE - you've repeatedly claimed Clegg was a certainty in Hallam and yet you've also flirted with voting tactically for him. If you're so certain he'll win why not vote for the party you love and those two strategic 'geniuses' Cameron and Osborne.
I feel vindicated, last year I was the first to press the issue that Clegg was having serious trouble in Sheffield Hallam only to get a bucket on my head from TSE everytime I dared to mention it.
@JohnLilburne "If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour...." Politicians, bankers, police, pop stars, and Mr James from The Muse Cottage in Skittery Trumpet? (the latter only practising during holidays to Goa or Banckock) There is no fruckin "type", they are in every walk of life and of every race and culture. Play little games with politics if you like, but you are doing a disservice to the victims.
Oh please. Your sort don't care about the victims, as long as they are white skanks living in Northern cities.
If there is an organised ring of child abusers who are bankers, politicians or entertainers, we should clearly say so. Similarly if it is a ring of Pakistani-origin taxi drivers.
@JohnLilburne Is it worse to be raped by a Pakistani taxi driver than your local MP? You only wish to see what you want, and as such, you are an enabler.
I fear that both JohnLilburne and Smarmeron are identifying an issue which is likely to prove a problem for the police; that of resources. Smarmeron makes the point about cottaging, and public toilets not being watched now, and unquestionably when dealing with gangs much police time will be taken up with actual interviews, some of which will have to be handled by specially trained officers.
@OldKingCole All I am pointing out is that if you discover a nest of vermin, don't assume it is the only nest in the vicinity or that it is the one species.
"Well your comment that you were surprised that MikeK posted this as a member of an ethnic minority shows that you are not surprised if a member of the ethnic majority does so
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans."
No but what is unacceptable is to draw any inferences about Italian-Americans. As a member of an ethnic minority MikeK should be more aware than most of the damage that can be wrought by creating stereotypes. There are plenty of propaganda films which make the point perfectly which I would post if I didn't think there was such a willing audience.
The real scandal is this: as this crime is at least equally prevalent among non-Pakistanis as among Pakistanis, and assuming a Pakistani population of 20% in Rotherham, there are at least 7,000 victims of the non-Pakistani child abuse rings in Rotherham none of whom have come to light. Why aren't you out campaigning for their rights, Roger?
Lets hope Lord A's Scottish constituency polls aren't riddled with rickets eh?
I think it's best for Lord A to doublecheck all his constituency polls just in case.
He found some errors that changed the result just a few percentage points here and there, but he has published many constituency polls that have shown a close result, a correction might change the party in lead and there are many such seats:
Seats like Dudley North, Great Grimsby , Southampton Itchen, Plymouth Moor View, Coatbridge, Glasgow NE, Glasgow NW, Glasgow SW and Rother Valley for Labour .(9 in total)
Birmingham Yardley, Portsmouth South, North Devon, Hazel Grove, Chelthennham, Brecon&Radnorshire, Bermondsey&Old Southwark (SIMON HUGHES), Torbay, Taunton Dean, St. Ives, St. Austell, North Cornwall, Mid Dorset, Cheadle and Cambridge for the LD's.(15 in total)
Amber Valley, Great Yarmouth, Morecambe, Thurrock, Stockton South, Cannock Chase, Camborne, Watford, Thanet North, Gloucester, Halesowen, Hove, Ipswich, Nuneaton, Pudsey, Blackpool North, Chester, Croydon, Keighley, Kingswood, Loughborough, Northampton North, Wirral West, Worcester, ROCHESTER, Wyre Forest, Ealing, Elmet, Harrow East, Pendle, Swindon South, Stevenage and Warwick for the Tories. (33 in total)
@JohnLilburne Is it worse to be raped by a Pakistani taxi driver than your local MP? You only wish to see what you want, and as such, you are an enabler.
No of course not. What is particularly wrong is the cover-up by those in power, either to protect their mates or for reasons of political correctness. I agreed that those in power should be investigated, I know it goes on. You are guilty of what you accuse me of: ignoring a particular source of organized child abuse because it suits your political agenda.
Lets hope Lord A's Scottish constituency polls aren't riddled with rickets eh?
I think it's best for Lord A to doublecheck all his constituency polls just in case.
He found some errors that changed the result just a few percentage points here and there, but he has published many constituency polls that have shown a close result, a correction might change the party in lead and there are many such seats:
Seats like Dudley North, Great Grimsby , Southampton Itchen, Plymouth Moor View and Rother Valley for Labour.
Birmingham Yardley, Portsmouth South, North Devon, Hazel Grove, Chelthennham, Brecon&Radnorshire, Bermondsey&Old Southwark (SIMON HUGHES), Torbay, Taunton Dean, St. Ives, St. Austell, North Cornwall, Mid Dorset, Cheadle and Cambridge for the LD's.
Amber Valley, Great Yarmouth, Morecambe, Thurrock, Stockton South, Cannock Chase, Camborne, Watford, Thanet North, Gloucester, Halesowen, Hove, Ipswich, Nuneaton, Pudsey, Blackpool North, Chester, Croydon, Keighley, Kingswood, Loughborough, Northampton North, Wirral West, Worcester, ROCHESTER, Wyre Forest, Ealing, Elmet, Harrow East, Pendle, Swindon South, Stevenage and Warwick for the Tories.
The only reason Tories are favourites in Rochester is a Lord Ashcroft poll...
The perils of following polls rather than doing your own homework
@OldKingCole One can only hope that justice will not be blinded again, but I am far from optimistic. e.g. (from the earlier article)
"For example, police now invest relatively little time in the surveillance of public toilets where gay men go cottaging. The one thing that is likely still to trigger such an operation is a complaint that under-aged boys are involved – unless, that is, the toilets in question happen to be those behind the Royal Courts of Justice in the Strand, in which case, under the terms of a long-standing Metropolitan Police policy, the operation will take place only if it has the approval of an officer of the rank of commander or above. According to experienced London officers, the reason is that those toilets are used by High Court judges and barristers, and the Metropolitan Police have always said they do not want to encounter such a powerful offender without special authority."
Most councils have got round this by closing all their public conveniences. And those in Railway stations and Supermarkets are festooned with cameras (other than in the actual bogs)
As for the Royal Courts PCs. The PCs are Clearly too PC to investigate the PCs and prefer to sit in the station on their PCs.
Comments
Two women called at my door and asked what bread I ate. When I said white, they gave me a lecture on the benefits of brown bread for 30 minutes. I think they were Hovis Witnesses.
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Seven wheelchair athletes have been banned from the Paralympics after they tested positive for WD40.
---------------------------------------------
I'll get my coat......
That way they might stand a chance of another coalition between Conservatives and Lib Dems which has worked reasonably well for the country in the government debt crisis which still continues.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31176748
I like the top comment:
"This is just interfering with natural selection. The nation's collective IQ will fall as a result."
Decided to back them, each way. Not with a hefty stake, of course, but I think of the four teams with shorter odds, England won't win it, and Australia won't win it. That leaves the All Blacks, Springboks and the Irish, I think.
Politicalbetting and Ashcroft have a relationship. Shame!!!
Wolverhampton city centre last Tuesday:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564050146607243264
Voting lib dem is a wasted vote.
Voting Tory is good for business with the flock.
My birthday today so off for lunch. Had an agreeable morning, including an interesting chat with the first Labour Party canvasser I've seen. Told him that housing was IMO more important than the NHS.
Have a good day all.
"Most people rate their local MP pretty much the same as they rate MPs in general, and a minority are a bit more positive about their local MP than they are about MPs in general. "
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/if-politicians-want-love-they-should-get-a-spaniel-by-phil-cowley/
At one stage it looked like you were looking for reasons to void it...
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564050146607243264
What's the connection?
After all, who wants Double-Dutch?
(Not mine, on the radio at midday!)
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Mikkil @MikkiL 14m14 minutes ago
It's the social workers who are racist, say Slovak parents in UKIP fostering scandal: The Mail ... http://ln.is/www.dailymail.co.uk/1D8Pg … via @MailOnline
OK, but whats the connection to UKIP?
DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL
European Parliamentary Election
on Thursday 22 May 2014
Result of poll for the local counting area of Huntingdonshire
I, Joanne Lancaster, being the Local Returning Officer at the above election, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for the Huntingdonshire local counting area in the said election is as follows:
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now 831
British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care 239
Christian Peoples Alliance 344
Conservative Party – For real change in Europe 15,335
English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean! 397
Green Party 3,397
Labour Party 4,587
Liberal Democrats 3,589
NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights 139
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 16,765
http://www.huntingdonshire.gov.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/HDCCMS/Documents/Elections/Results/2014/Declaration of results - European 2014.pdf
OT. Is there any reason why the Tories have chosen Grant Shapps to be their party chairman? Surely the last person you'd want in such a sensitive position is a spiv like him. If it's for his dark Faustian skills then why not give him a back room job?
Highlands and islands or the deprived "Yes" areas of West Scotland with massive swings against Labour ?
Did he offer a "money back" guarantee to the clients?
Colour of the poster? Wishful thinking?
Told you Scrapheap. Have faith in my tipping.
Now to stick some of my winnings on Villa beating Chelsea
A very high proportion of child-abusers overall are white men. Just not in Rotherham. As far as we know!
2-1
I'm amazed that someone who themselves is from an ethnic minority can post such racist garbage as you seem to have started doing. That's the disgrace.
"View image on Twitter
Je Suis Charlie @KillSocialism
etc etc etc
Have a listen to this interview, it's their political editor - propaganda wing of the Labour party !!!
http://worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com/crichton-macwhirter-gms-5feb2015.mp3
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/thorpes-friends--and-a-murder-conspiracy-1352118.html
or purchasing some letters.
I posted this last night.
http://www.nickdavies.net/1998/04/01/the-sheer-scale-of-child-sexual-abuse-in-britain/
That time it wasn't invisible Muslims. but the perpetrators were equally invisible.
Child abuse only needs access and a means of control, it has nothing to do with race or culture.
However, lets not let facts stand in the way of a perceived political advantage?
what is it with media lefties .... Piers and Polly two of my Room 101 candidates!
"I thought most child sexual abuse was carried out my members of the family, whether parents, step-parents, fosterers, etc? "
Indeed and more interesting still two thirds of those in social security care in Rotherham were there because of abuse at home.
"I'm not quite sure what is so racist about the tweet that MikeK shared, but I do know who is a racist. It is you, for your obvious belief that only members of the white Anglo-Saxon majority can be racist."
To try to suggest any disreputable behaviour is stereotypical of a particular race is racist. No ifs no buts......
The mystery is that Mike allows these people to soil his site
That particular article points out striking similarities to all the other cases.
Convenient omissions, collusion, and lessons learned.
It carries on like this every time, it is so horrific that the public assumes it is a one off instead of a pointer to something far larger.
Yes, investigate taxi companies and late night takeaways, but don't assume that that of itself will solve anything more than a small fraction of the abuse..
Better team on the day won, cant complain
In the case of that article, how long did the individuals get away with it, and are you assuming that no one else was doing the same thing with impunity?
Wolverhampton? ( I was there during the week)
Why on earth are Hills 5-6 on Inverclyde still ? I've topped up.
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans.
"If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour...."
Politicians, bankers, police, pop stars, and Mr James from The Muse Cottage in Skittery Trumpet? (the latter only practising during holidays to Goa or Banckock)
There is no fruckin "type", they are in every walk of life and of every race and culture.
Play little games with politics if you like, but you are doing a disservice to the victims.
"Well your comment that you were surprised that MikeK posted this as a member of an ethnic minority shows that you are not surprised if a member of the ethnic majority does so
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans."
No but what is unacceptable is to draw any inferences about Italian-Americans. As a member of an ethnic minority MikeK should be more aware than most of the damage that can be wrought by creating stereotypes. There are plenty of propaganda films which make the point perfectly which I would post if I didn't think there was such a willing audience.
I say it like I see it, and I would speak out against people of any race or religion if it was involved in these vile practises.
It's a pity that you support a Labour party that is sick in outlook, with policies of destruction and the blatant selling of the UK to the EU as quick as can be accomplished, in the hope of a socialist heaven. Where I concur with the original tweeter is in the slogan: Kill Socialism. Hear, hear!
I'm afraid that most of Lord A's constituency polls might have the same mistakes, if that were the case then it's back to the drawing board and back to UNS, at least we have some ICM and Survation constituency polls.
One can only hope that justice will not be blinded again, but I am far from optimistic.
e.g. (from the earlier article)
"For example, police now invest relatively little time in the surveillance of public toilets where gay men go cottaging. The one thing that is likely still to trigger such an operation is a complaint that under-aged boys are involved – unless, that is, the toilets in question happen to be those behind the Royal Courts of Justice in the Strand, in which case, under the terms of a long-standing Metropolitan Police policy, the operation will take place only if it has the approval of an officer of the rank of commander or above. According to experienced London officers, the reason is that those toilets are used by High Court judges and barristers, and the Metropolitan Police have always said they do not want to encounter such a powerful offender without special authority."
See the boys are at it again pasting the Telegraphs odious Iain Martin and picking on a 20 year old women. I actually watched a video post of this young candidate whom I have never met and it was intelligent, unscripted and refreshing.
None of the boys attacking her know the slightest thing about her but why let that stop your misogynist bullying?. In any case I suspect she will make more of on public life ceratinly than Iain Martin ever will. I really do hope she gives wee Dougie , a man who didn't even have the guts to defend his own sister, a sound beating.
If there is an organised ring of child abusers who are bankers, politicians or entertainers, we should clearly say so. Similarly if it is a ring of Pakistani-origin taxi drivers.
Is it worse to be raped by a Pakistani taxi driver than your local MP?
You only wish to see what you want, and as such, you are an enabler.
All I am pointing out is that if you discover a nest of vermin, don't assume it is the only nest in the vicinity or that it is the one species.
He found some errors that changed the result just a few percentage points here and there, but he has published many constituency polls that have shown a close result, a correction might change the party in lead and there are many such seats:
Seats like Dudley North, Great Grimsby , Southampton Itchen, Plymouth Moor View, Coatbridge, Glasgow NE, Glasgow NW, Glasgow SW and Rother Valley for Labour .(9 in total)
Birmingham Yardley, Portsmouth South, North Devon, Hazel Grove, Chelthennham, Brecon&Radnorshire, Bermondsey&Old Southwark (SIMON HUGHES), Torbay, Taunton Dean, St. Ives, St. Austell, North Cornwall, Mid Dorset, Cheadle and Cambridge for the LD's.(15 in total)
Amber Valley, Great Yarmouth, Morecambe, Thurrock, Stockton South, Cannock Chase, Camborne, Watford, Thanet North, Gloucester, Halesowen, Hove, Ipswich, Nuneaton, Pudsey, Blackpool North, Chester, Croydon, Keighley, Kingswood, Loughborough, Northampton North, Wirral West, Worcester, ROCHESTER, Wyre Forest, Ealing, Elmet, Harrow East, Pendle, Swindon South, Stevenage and Warwick for the Tories. (33 in total)
The perils of following polls rather than doing your own homework
As for the Royal Courts PCs. The PCs are Clearly too PC to investigate the PCs and prefer to sit in the station on their PCs.