Those odds of 7/4 from Ladbrokes on UKIP winning between 10% - 15% of the UK vote, although already trimmed back, still look quite attractive imo, but DYOR.
It is perfectly possible Clegg, Cable and Alexander could all lose their seats.
Nonsense.
Clegg and Cable will win very comfortably. Alexander is in danger.
High profile constituency polls without named candidates are of limited value. Reputable pollsters in the US wouldn't dream of a generic poll in a Congressional seat a few months out from the election.
MG..If you ever crawl out of your damp moss covered little croft you might find there is another world out there..forgive us for not waiting for you....pillock.
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?
To terrorise. Clearly.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
B+ll+cks. The point of terrorism is to use it sparingly with the threat that you *can* use it your most potent weapon. Go round smiting innocent people wholesale and you are upsetting so many people and governments that you are digging your own grave, even if you gain in the short term.
They may make films with filming expertise but immolating a Bedouin Pilot alive if you are anywhere in arabia is suicidal recklessness of the highest order. Rule one in the middle east - YOU CROSS THE BEDOIUN AT YOUR PERIL.
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
The morning thread (assuming nothing major happens overnight), will try and explain why that is happening (because there is polling to back it up)
Is it just polling, or is it Lord Ashcroft polling?
I don't see any hint of an apology from the noble Lord, nor anger at him from OGH on behalf of the PB community, for grossly negligent misinformation. If he had badged his polls in the usual format as in "Pollco. for Lord Ashcroft" his position would be different. If he puts his own brand on them, he takes ownership of the errors. Vanity project goes tits-up.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.
The Greeks want the impossible. Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future. Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Who pays?
Uncle Vladimir. In return he gets a client state in a strategic position. Thought that was obvious.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
Please, I can almost sense the salivating glee from here. I'm sure you'll be deliriously happy to see the LDs smashed to oblivion irrespective of what that might or might not mean to the governance of this country.
Seriously, would Nick Clegg losing his seat be a disaster ? Probably not, in truth. Liberal and LD safe seats are almost a contradiction in terms and Sir Archibald Sinclair's defeat in 1945 was the last time one of the three main party leaders lost their seat and the problem with that was it ushered in the hapless Clement Davies as leader.
IF Nick Clegg loses in Hallam it will be the cleanest of clean breaks with the era of the Coalition - no arguments. Probably less symbolic than Portillo's defeat in 1997 but of significance. The survivors will be unencumbered to pick a new leader - I wouldn't rule out Tom Brake as a challenger to Tim Farron.
People convicted of homophobic, transgender or disability hate crime would be put on a “blacklist” to warn future employers of past misdemeanours under new proposals by Labour.
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?
To terrorise. Clearly.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
People convicted of homophobic, transgender or disability hate crime would be put on a “blacklist” to warn future employers of past misdemeanours under new proposals by Labour.
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
If we don't know who does the ashcroft constituency polls, isn't there a problem making a judgement on them?
If it were ICM and they have ukip 1pt behind in s Thanet without Farage named, I'd have my mortgage on at 1/4... If it were Survation id be a layer at evens!
Hate crimes always somewhat perplexed me. If you murder someone because he shags your wife, rather than because of his skin colour, he isn't any less dead.
I wonder if the racist hate crime factor will see those convicted of Rotherham-related sexual assaults get longer sentences.
Mr. W, are you sure? The last government tried 90 days without detention, the current one stupidly wants to try and save everything anyone does on the internet for a year (at the same time making it massively less secure).
Hate crimes always somewhat perplexed me. If you murder someone because he shags your wife, rather than because of his skin colour, he isn't any less dead.
I wonder if the racist hate crime factor will see those convicted of Rotherham-related sexual assaults get longer sentences.
My memory is how Marcus gave up work to devote himself whole heartedly to winning Torbay. He spent five years on nothing else and at the end he lost. I thought it was sad
For those of us who took Marcus at his word and bet on him being elected as the MP for Torbay is is somewhat difficult to share such sympathy, all the more so as he was fully aware that this is a betting site and that punters would invest as a result of the fulsome confidence he expressed at the time as regards his chances of winning. In the event he lost by a very considerable margin .
Indeed.
There were certainly PBers who lost money from believing what Marcus Wood was claiming, fortunately I wasn't one of them.
By contrast Nick Palmer gave honest accounts of what was happening in Broxtowe.
I'm presently attending a WEA course on "Islam in the Modern World", the speaker being an imam and former jihadist, now working with the Home Office.
His view, made very clear last week, is that returning jihadists should be "quarantined" and people like him given the opportunity to make them see the error of their ways. If, of course, they don't already. He's also concerned at the amount of money going from the UK to "suspect charities" elsewhere, given that moslems are obligated to give a small(it) but defined part of their income to charity.
It's a very interesting course, and if, so far I've learned how to distinguish between the beliefs of Sunni and Shia practitioners, that would be something.. What has also come across is that the speaker, and, he says, many, many of his co-religionists want to integrate, and would rather do that than be treated as "different".
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
....
....
We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.
So the unrealistic anti EU coalition trying to be all things to all men falls apart, in the manner of Wylee Cypotee over the Grand Canyon, when confronted by the illogic of its position?
Except of course they were not anti-EU. They wanted to stay in both the EU and the Euro but thought they could do so on their own terms rather than submitting to the will of the EU. Sounds rather like the Tories and their unrealistic expectations for EU reform/renegotiation.
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?
To terrorise. Clearly.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
B+ll+cks. The point of terrorism is to use it sparingly with the threat that you *can* use it your most potent weapon. Go round smiting innocent people wholesale and you are upsetting so many people and governments that you are digging your own grave, even if you gain in the short term.
They may make films with filming expertise but immolating a Bedouin Pilot alive if you are anywhere in arabia is suicidal recklessness of the highest order. Rule one in the middle east - YOU CROSS THE BEDOIUN AT YOUR PERIL.
"smiting innocent people wholesale" is bad policy, therefore IS can't be doing it? Do you follow the news much?
And stop trying to sound like Lawrence of Arabia re-imagined for the young teen readership market. It makes you sound a bit of a twit.
My memory is how Marcus gave up work to devote himself whole heartedly to winning Torbay. He spent five years on nothing else and at the end he lost. I thought it was sad
For those of us who took Marcus at his word and bet on him being elected as the MP for Torbay is is somewhat difficult to share such sympathy, all the more so as he was fully aware that this is a betting site and that punters would invest as a result of the fulsome confidence he expressed at the time as regards his chances of winning. In the event he lost by a very considerable margin .
Indeed. There were certainly PBers who lost money from believing what Marcus Wood was claiming, fortunately I wasn't one of them. By contrast Nick Palmer gave honest accounts of what was happening in Broxtowe.
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
No Mike, I'm not for the simple reason that Sporting's sell price is 26 seats, i.e. within 2 or 3 seats of what I expect the LibDems to win, as I thought I'd made clear in the post above to which you are replying! BTW are you buying LibDem seats at 28?
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
His Lordship's polling in the LibDem seats was undertaken when they were several points higher in the polls. Given that the maths for LibDems saving 30-40 seats required lost deposit levels of support elsewhere, surely basic maths says the LibDems are now taking a disproportionate hit in those remaining yellow pockets?
That approach is entirely consistent with his Lordship's polling showing Labour having an extinction event in Scotland. There just aren't enough votes left to prevent it.
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?
To terrorise. Clearly.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
Well I agree and this was the point of my original reply. Two people shouting some nasty crudities does not make an 'regiment of English speakers' preparing for torture. They drove off. I can understand why some people want to stir the pot - they want to smear all muslims and win votes. I would rather leave inciting race war to ISIS. We must protect ourselves but as you imply the main defence against terror is not to be terrorised. And of course we need to invest in intelligence. In terms of ISIS there are enough people locally with the will and guts to fight them, we should help as and where we can.
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.
Look we survived almost weekly and sometimes almost daily bombings by pIRA for thirty years without any of the insane panic that we have over this lot. There was a Lee Rigby every month. Lee Rigby ten or twenty times? How about the Deal Barracks Bombing and Hyde Park and Regent's Park bombings.
I do wish people would stop being so over dramatic about this lot. It just does their job for them. The adage Do Not Feed The Troll applies to them as well.
The Greeks want the impossible. Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future. Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Who pays?
Uncle Vladimir. In return he gets a client state in a strategic position. Thought that was obvious.
Such a laugh - where does Russia get the money to prop up a broken backed economy that would bleed him white?
You've got Orkney & Shetland and Westmorland & Lonsdale and that's pretty much it. Of course they're still favourites in atleast 20 other seats, but you can make a case for how they could potentially lose in each of the others. Ross Skye & Lochaber (their 2nd-safest seat), at risk from the SNP surge. 3rd-safest seat, Hallam - see thread header. 4th-safest seat, Bath - big student population will be fleeing them. 6th-safest seat, North Norfolk - the Tories won local elections there recently. 7th-safest seat, Yeovil - David Laws could be damaged by expensesgate.
antifrank, one of the smartest bettors on this site, expects the LibDems to win approx 30 seats. Personally, I see them being closer to saving 20 seats and perhaps fewer than that.
Another Ashcroft LD seats polling denier.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
The expression "cognitive dissonance" is overused these days, but really...
Do you mean his polling of LD-CON battleground, or do you mean polling of LD-CON battleground seats conducted in his name by a well-known but relatively new polling firm which he won't be using again? And as you don't now know the answer to that question in respect of any Ashcroft poll, had you considered demoting them from the epistemic status that to take them with a pinch of salt is to be a "denier"?
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?
To terrorise. Clearly.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.
As the undisputed TOTY of PB you are talking absolute bilge.
Those lefties gloating over Opinium's tiny poll lead for Labour this evening might care to take heed of the latest movement on the spread-betting markets, where there has been a recent move against Labour GE seats: Sporting goes Lab 275, Con 284, Spreadex goes Lab 276, Con 285 (all mid-spread prices).
Those numbers still mean Miliband is PM.
(Does EICIPM stand for Ed is Crap is Prime Minister? Not certain and its hard to work out)
Yes, BJO amuses himself (but no one else) by Baxtering every poll and posting that as his conclusion.
People convicted of homophobic, transgender or disability hate crime would be put on a “blacklist” to warn future employers of past misdemeanours under new proposals by Labour.
The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, will on Monday unveil a strategy to tackle the UK’s soaring rise in antisemitism, Islamophobia, homophobia and abuse of people with disabilities. The package includes making homophobic and disability hate crimes an aggravated criminal offence, ensuring that police treat such offences in the same way as racist hate crimes.
freedom of speech melting away fast in Great Britain 2015, I notice no mention of christianphobia, and what about the muslim who speaks against homosexuality because of his belief, or the homosexual who questions him, is one guilty of islamphobia, and the other of homophobia? why dont these islington politicians just concentrate of the real criminals in the UK, the rapists in Rotherham, the terrorists (not militants as the bbc call them) who kill people on the streets, and maybe think about the real concerns of the British people like the economy, jobs, public safety, protecting the young and vulnerable. PC has gone mad in this country, and frankly people are fed up with it
The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Audrey told us we could start paying attention to polls from the beginning of February.
Where is Audrey?
I think she was banned for criticising the boss's love affair with the Lord.
If not the prospect of Farage in No10 and Marine Le Pen in the Elysee becomes very real
ANY suspected returning jihadist should be put in quarantine (a UK Guantanamo) at the very least. We don't have the resources to monitor all of them once they are in, so keep them out, or lock them up.
Note that the Charlie Hebdo killers were returning jihadists, who fought for AQ in Yemen. Why did the French let them back in??
We need to wise up, and get a bit tougher. If you've been out there to fight, you stay there. If you want to come back in, we put you in a special unit, til we are sure you don't have rabies.
That said I am sadly sure there are already enough returned jihadists and "lone wolves" inside the UK to do horrible stuff, and I fully expect them to enact it in due course.
Haven't the Canadians discussed removing citizenship/passports and the right to return to Canada from any Canadian who signs up with ISIS?
The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Audrey told us we could start paying attention to polls from the beginning of February.
Where is Audrey?
I think she was banned for criticising the boss's love affair with the Lord.
Quite right too.
What OGH and His Lordship get up to in the privacy of their polling booth is nobody's concern but theirs.
Hate crimes always somewhat perplexed me. If you murder someone because he shags your wife, rather than because of his skin colour, he isn't any less dead.
I wonder if the racist hate crime factor will see those convicted of Rotherham-related sexual assaults get longer sentences.
Exactly
And of course not, it's a one way street
Quite, the hate laws are some of the most dreadful laws put onto the statute book because they breach the principle that everyone is equal before the law.
And you are quite right, it is not a one way street. Were we to get a rather more right wing govenment than the present one they could use the hate laws to persecute minorities fiercely without so much as secondary legislation being passed.
For example police could be asked to treat hate crime against white people by ethnic minorities with the utmost resources and seriousness at all times (the other way round, well there isn't unlimited public money you know) and of course under McPherson rules its a racism if the victim percieves it to be racist. So when Mr Patel drops litter in his neighbours garden he gets two years because he did it out of racial hatred for his white neighbour.
Similarly, police could be intstructed to give priority to anyone who claims the crime they are a vitcim of (any crime not neccesarily a sexual one) was due to a homosexual attacker being hating of them because they are heterosexual, so when poor old Mr Humphries has a bit of a dispute with his neighbour Mrs Whitehouse he finds hes up for two years for hate aggravated harassment.
If you think thats not possible here, have a look at who's leading the polls in France.
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
Also, because there might be civil unrest...
Which would probably mean there are some decent bargains available...
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?
To terrorise. Clearly.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.
"I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold."
Imagine if one were planning a Greek holiday in the late summer, it might make sense to delay booking anything until it becomes clearer whether one faces paying in Euros or new-fangled Drachma.
Also, because there might be civil unrest...
Which would probably mean there are some decent bargains available...
But bring your own minder! BTW Charles, have you had an opportunity to call in at the Finborough Arms as yet?
The polls are virtually static and this can be attributed to the electorate switching off with the non stop political argy-bargy in the media. The electorate will only engage when the election is much nearer and probably the budget will be the real starting gun though it might be that minds will only be made up when the pen is hovering over the voting slip
Audrey told us we could start paying attention to polls from the beginning of February.
Where is Audrey?
I think she was banned for criticising the boss's love affair with the Lord.
Can't say I miss her. Carlotta seems to have vanished too.
By the way, quick Greece update. I spent some time on the phone with the CDU foreign policy spokesman last week, and turned down breakfast with the Greek finance minister. (Not because he wouldn't have been interesting, he would - but because my firm does not invest in sovereign debt, and I didn't want to waste his time.)
The Greeks have spent most of the last week rowing back hard. They expected to get a more sympathetic reception - especially from southern European governments - than they did. They also expected people to be more scared of a Greek default and exit from the Eurozone. I think they also hoped their cosying up to Russia would encourage new sweeties from the other Eurozone members.
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We shall see. That being said, the chance of Grexit diminished somewhat this week.
I can see, (if what you say is true and correct), Syriza breaking up fairly quickly from a united party to splinter groups. The disappointment of the Greek electorate will be something to behold.
So the unrealistic anti EU coalition trying to be all things to all men falls apart, in the manner of Wylee Cypotee over the Grand Canyon, when confronted by the illogic of its position?
Except of course they were not anti-EU. They wanted to stay in both the EU and the Euro but thought they could do so on their own terms rather than submitting to the will of the EU. Sounds rather like the Tories and their unrealistic expectations for EU reform/renegotiation.
That's a little unfair. SYRIZA are deluded in every way, not merely regarding the EU. In fact, probably the only reason the EU has managed a coherent response to Greece is because SYRIZA is so manifestly crazy...
The Greeks want the impossible. Really, the choice is slow pain inside the euro, or fast pain outside.
Savers and retirees will want to stay in the euro, because that protects their future. Unemployed 23 year olds want grexit, because that will lower unemployment faster.
Who pays?
Uncle Vladimir. In return he gets a client state in a strategic position. Thought that was obvious.
Such a laugh - where does Russia get the money to prop up a broken backed economy that would bleed him white?
The Greeks, thats how empires work. In any case, he wouldn't be bled white the creditors of Greece would be when Uncle Vladimir said Nyet to his latest new province repaying them, while building a vast new naval port near the Dardanelles and muttering darkly about Turkeys illegal annexation of Western Thrace and Constantinople (which is in realsch the capital of Russia)
Explicit threats made by ISIS, warning of atrocities against "English speaking western nations", especially Britain (threats which echo security rumours I've heard)
These guys are the anti-ISIS resistance in the ISIS-held city of Raqqa, and are pretty damn reliable.
It's coming. I doubt we will thwart every attack. Expect a Charlie Hebdo, or worse, inside our borders, soon.
Shock horror, mad loony racist group make shocking violent threats. Surprise me - just what is the normal modus operandi of terrorists?
To terrorise. Clearly.
I am merely pointing out that this info comes from INSIDE the Caliphate - ISIS are training a regiment of English speakers, who are now going home to torture and behead some poor sods in Britain, indeed they are on the case right now:
I know I shouldn't engage with you, but if what ISIS are allegedly planning (it is indescribable) comes to fruition, we could see major civil strife in our country. If they can manage three or four atrocities, we might see the suspension of normal human rights.
And this is what they are aiming to do. And they are the richest, smartest, most sophisticated terrorist organisation the planet has seen. This is not tinfoil millinery, this is simply the case
Don't be such a drama queen pussy.
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
Am I telling anyone to panic? Do you detect signs of a quivering lip?
I am telling people to expect Lee Rigby times ten or twenty, and most of it on video. Live. Forewarned is forearmed.
It will have an effect. If they do it four or five times, it will have a chilling effect, on all of us. Indeed it is already having an effect. Marine Le Pen is a metre from the presidency. UKIP are going to deny your precious Tory party a majority. Why? Partly because of Islam, or Islamism, and its perceived perniciousness.
As a political bettor of zero repute, you should maybe take note, and improve your reputation.
As the undisputed TOTY of PB you are talking absolute bilge.
It is going to happen, though. Sean is right about that. A lot of our training is now tailored to dealing with the types of attacks that are expected to take place.
Comments
If not the prospect of Farage in No10 and Marine Le Pen in the Elysee becomes very real
Clegg and Cable will win very comfortably. Alexander is in danger.
High profile constituency polls without named candidates are of limited value. Reputable pollsters in the US wouldn't dream of a generic poll in a Congressional seat a few months out from the election.
They may make films with filming expertise but immolating a Bedouin Pilot alive if you are anywhere in arabia is suicidal recklessness of the highest order. Rule one in the middle east - YOU CROSS THE BEDOIUN AT YOUR PERIL.
I don't see any hint of an apology from the noble Lord, nor anger at him from OGH on behalf of the PB community, for grossly negligent misinformation. If he had badged his polls in the usual format as in "Pollco. for Lord Ashcroft" his position would be different. If he puts his own brand on them, he takes ownership of the errors. Vanity project goes tits-up.
Seriously, would Nick Clegg losing his seat be a disaster ? Probably not, in truth. Liberal and LD safe seats are almost a contradiction in terms and Sir Archibald Sinclair's defeat in 1945 was the last time one of the three main party leaders lost their seat and the problem with that was it ushered in the hapless Clement Davies as leader.
IF Nick Clegg loses in Hallam it will be the cleanest of clean breaks with the era of the Coalition - no arguments. Probably less symbolic than Portillo's defeat in 1997 but of significance. The survivors will be unencumbered to pick a new leader - I wouldn't rule out Tom Brake as a challenger to Tim Farron.
How frustrating that Cameron has pandered to this nonsense meaning I will have to Vote UKIP to teach the Tories a lesson.
A nation that survived two world wars and various terrorist campaigns isn't going to go all weak at the knees because of ISIS.
You'd do better aiming your considerable polemic skills at ISIS rather than lifting your skirts, running around PB and shouting "don't panic, don't panic" at us.
Tory punters seem to be happy taking his Lordship's polling as gospel when they relate to LAB's Scottish collapse but to dismiss his polling of LD-CON battleground where the latest batch had the yellows averaging a 9% lead.
I assume Peter that you are selling LD seats on SPIN.
If we don't know who does the ashcroft constituency polls, isn't there a problem making a judgement on them?
If it were ICM and they have ukip 1pt behind in s Thanet without Farage named, I'd have my mortgage on at 1/4... If it were Survation id be a layer at evens!
I wonder if the racist hate crime factor will see those convicted of Rotherham-related sexual assaults get longer sentences.
And of course not, it's a one way street
There were certainly PBers who lost money from believing what Marcus Wood was claiming, fortunately I wasn't one of them.
By contrast Nick Palmer gave honest accounts of what was happening in Broxtowe.
His view, made very clear last week, is that returning jihadists should be "quarantined" and people like him given the opportunity to make them see the error of their ways. If, of course, they don't already.
He's also concerned at the amount of money going from the UK to "suspect charities" elsewhere, given that moslems are obligated to give a small(it) but defined part of their income to charity.
It's a very interesting course, and if, so far I've learned how to distinguish between the beliefs of Sunni and Shia practitioners, that would be something.. What has also come across is that the speaker, and, he says, many, many of his co-religionists want to integrate, and would rather do that than be treated as "different".
And stop trying to sound like Lawrence of Arabia re-imagined for the young teen readership market. It makes you sound a bit of a twit.
BTW are you buying LibDem seats at 28?
That approach is entirely consistent with his Lordship's polling showing Labour having an extinction event in Scotland. There just aren't enough votes left to prevent it.
I can understand why some people want to stir the pot - they want to smear all muslims and win votes. I would rather leave inciting race war to ISIS.
We must protect ourselves but as you imply the main defence against terror is not to be terrorised. And of course we need to invest in intelligence. In terms of ISIS there are enough people locally with the will and guts to fight them, we should help as and where we can.
I do wish people would stop being so over dramatic about this lot. It just does their job for them. The adage Do Not Feed The Troll applies to them as well.
Do you mean his polling of LD-CON battleground, or do you mean polling of LD-CON battleground seats conducted in his name by a well-known but relatively new polling firm which he won't be using again? And as you don't now know the answer to that question in respect of any Ashcroft poll, had you considered demoting them from the epistemic status that to take them with a pinch of salt is to be a "denier"?
What OGH and His Lordship get up to in the privacy of their polling booth is nobody's concern but theirs.
And you are quite right, it is not a one way street. Were we to get a rather more right wing govenment than the present one they could use the hate laws to persecute minorities fiercely without so much as secondary legislation being passed.
For example police could be asked to treat hate crime against white people by ethnic minorities with the utmost resources and seriousness at all times (the other way round, well there isn't unlimited public money you know) and of course under McPherson rules its a racism if the victim percieves it to be racist. So when Mr Patel drops litter in his neighbours garden he gets two years because he did it out of racial hatred for his white neighbour.
Similarly, police could be intstructed to give priority to anyone who claims the crime they are a vitcim of (any crime not neccesarily a sexual one) was due to a homosexual attacker being hating of them because they are heterosexual, so when poor old Mr Humphries has a bit of a dispute with his neighbour Mrs Whitehouse he finds hes up for two years for hate aggravated harassment.
If you think thats not possible here, have a look at who's leading the polls in France.
BTW Charles, have you had an opportunity to call in at the Finborough Arms as yet?
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