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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft finds errors in his Doncaster N, Thanet S & H

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited February 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft finds errors in his Doncaster N, Thanet S & Hallam polling. Clegg 3% behind

@LordAshcroft 's statement on the corrections he's had to make to his Dec polling of Hallam, Doncaster N, & Thanet S pic.twitter.com/YVsDDCk1TP

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,380
    As the Good Lord giveth the Good Lord taketh.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Blimey
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's hard to avoid the conclusion now that Nick Clegg is up against it. Which is a shame because I've bet a fair bit on him keeping his seat.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Makes that Survation poll less of an outlier
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Ouchie ouchie from Lord A, expect a slew of firms posting confirming they weren't the ones who did the polling.

    I have not been in the habit of naming the polling companies I use, all of which are members of the British Polling Council, and I will not be naming this one. But I cannot allow this episode to cast doubt on the reliability of my polling more generally.

    So I must disclose that these three surveys last November are the first and only I have commissioned from a well-known but relatively new polling firm. And no, I won’t be using them again.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Please no speculation on which pollster it was.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Of course this was pre Pub landlord in Thanet - the worm has turned.

    Should imagine LA may get a discount on future polls.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125
    antifrank said:

    It's hard to avoid the conclusion now that Nick Clegg is up against it. Which is a shame because I've bet a fair bit on him keeping his seat.

    Hold your nerve. Still some time to go yet and it would be a historic event for a party leader to lose their seat. This hasn't happened for a very long time (Balfour - 1906?).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Clegg's team will really have to work on Conservative and UKIP supporters, to vote tactically.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Business opportunity for May 2015, who is on the electoral bog roll?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-31189050
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited February 2015
    I still think the good lord should maybe think about looking at some of his other results, such as that clearly mental 6% tory lead last month without which the tory jan performance would look even more pathetic
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125
    If Clegg does lose, then it seems to me that it is game over for a Tory-LD coalition. Who would be their temporary leader during negotiations? Vince? Farron?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rottenborough said:

    antifrank said:

    It's hard to avoid the conclusion now that Nick Clegg is up against it. Which is a shame because I've bet a fair bit on him keeping his seat.

    Hold your nerve. Still some time to go yet and it would be a historic event for a party leader to lose their seat. This hasn't happened for a very long time (Balfour - 1906?).
    I've not lost my nerve. He may still scramble home. But he's not value at the 2/5 best price currently available.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    JWisemann said:

    I still think the good lord should maybe think about looking at some of his other results, such as that clearly mental 6% tory lead last month without which the tory jan performance would look even more pathetic

    Why? It was in line with the other polls.

    Even you concede that Labour's lead is non-existent or barely exists, then a poll with the Tories 6 ahead is consistent with that, once you factor in margin of error, sampling variations and individual pollster house effects.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,380
    Sean_F said:

    Clegg's team will really have to work on Conservative and UKIP supporters, to vote tactically.

    Good luck with that when the Lib-Dems are running their coalition partners down at every available opportunity...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    At this rate Labour will be taking Huntingdon
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Were those 3 comissioned specially together or were they part of a larger set?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125
    Sean_F said:

    Clegg's team will really have to work on Conservative and UKIP supporters, to vote tactically.

    Perhaps they should have gone with the coalition coupon ticket idea which was briefly muted by some Tory and LDs a year or two ago?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sun leader today

    @StigAbell: The Sun on UKIP: http://t.co/BgeAh0VMIo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    The Times reported yesterday

    The Conservatives have joined efforts to “decapitate” the Liberal Democrats by unseating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency.....However, the local Conservative candidate made clear that no quarter would be given in the election fight. Ian Walker said that Mr Clegg’s character would be an issue, with voters believing that he was “damaged goods”.

    Mr Walker said that the Conservatives would end up benefiting from Labour’s efforts to unseat Mr Clegg, with former Lib Dem voters coming to them to keep out Ed Miliband.

    “I don’t want to decapitate the Liberals — I don’t care about them — I just want to de-Clegg Sheffield,” Mr Walker, a local businessman, said.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    OT..The Rotherham Council Cabinet that resigned last week are still Councillors..Should EdM have a word
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    I hope he didn't have the same problems with his Scottish polls as quite a few of you weighed in on the back of them.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    richardDodd said:

    OT..The Rotherham Council Cabinet that resigned last week are still Councillors..Should EdM have a word

    Andrew Neil's tweet implies he isn't impressed.

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 7m7 minutes ago
    So #rotherham "cabinet" which turned blind eye to child sex slavery gone; but members still councillors picking up expenses and allowances?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    "Sun leader today

    @StigAbell: The Sun on UKIP: http://t.co/BgeAh0VMIo"

    Nothing quite as joyous as Murdoch panicking
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Once again the hunches of PBers are proved to have been correct. If i remember correctly we thought Farage was probably closer to winning in Thanet than the poll originally said and that Ed couldn't be in danger of losing his seat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125
    Drilling through the detail of the new poll - only a few % of the Green vote is from social class DE, which presumably students fall in to. C1 and C2 form the bulk of their vote in Hallam. This doesn't seem to fit the general narrative on the green surge.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    So Ed is Crap is safe in Doncaster, yes?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    As Tim Montgomerie comments and my reply:

    Tim Montgomerie ن ‏@montie 19m19 minutes ago
    I'd love to know which polling company let @LordAshcroft down! http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/lord-ashcroft-sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-and-thanet-south.html …

    mike kaye ‏@atmikekayes3 9m9 minutes ago
    @montie @LordAshcroft Wouldn't we all. :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories haven't selected a candidate in Leeds North West which looks like an attempt to help Greg Mulholland hold his seat against Labour. I'm surprised they haven't done the same thing in Hallam.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories haven't selected a candidate in Leeds North West which looks like an attempt to help Greg Mulholland hold his seat against Labour. I'm surprised they haven't done the same thing in Hallam.

    If Leeds Northwest is in trouble then the Lib Dems are heading for almost complete collapse against Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    My Bradford East, Brent and some other Lab-Lib shorty bets feel very safe right now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    If Labour can't pick up 10-15 seats against the LDs they're really in trouble, especially with the Scottish situation. There aren't a huge number of guaranteed Labour gains from the Tories so they're relying on those 10 to 15 LD gains.
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories haven't selected a candidate in Leeds North West which looks like an attempt to help Greg Mulholland hold his seat against Labour. I'm surprised they haven't done the same thing in Hallam.

    If Leeds Northwest is in trouble then the Lib Dems are heading for almost complete collapse against Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    TGOHF said:

    Sun leader today

    @StigAbell: The Sun on UKIP: http://t.co/BgeAh0VMIo

    It depends on the seat in question. I think it would be absurd to vote UKIP in Harlow, Hendon, Enfield North, Watford, Stevenage, Wells, Somerton & Frome, Amber Valley etc.

    I think that in Boston & Skegness, Castle Point, Thanet North & South, Dover, Rochester & Strood, Bognor Regis, Folkestone, there's no danger of a UKIP vote letting in the opposition. The seat will either be Conservative or UKIP.

    In some seats, voting UKIP is the best bet to keep out Labour (Thurrock) or to gain from Labour (Grimsby, Rother Valley, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View, Rotherham).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    AndyJS said:

    If Labour can't pick up 10-15 seats against the LDs they're really in trouble, especially with the Scottish situation. There aren't a huge number of guaranteed Labour gains from the Tories so they're relying on those 10 to 15 LD gains.

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories haven't selected a candidate in Leeds North West which looks like an attempt to help Greg Mulholland hold his seat against Labour. I'm surprised they haven't done the same thing in Hallam.

    If Leeds Northwest is in trouble then the Lib Dems are heading for almost complete collapse against Labour.
    At the same time the Lib Dem vote seems to be holding up alot relatively better against the Conservatives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    What we need is some polling naming Clegg and Farage.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited February 2015
    Re: Business Taxation

    For all his lecturing at Harvard, it is quite apparent that EdM and his sidekick EdB do not have a clue about the effects of globalisation on the efficient running of multinational companies and organisations.

    Due to the truths that:

    (i) For the same quality most people will buy the cheapest product - then that eliminates making most mass products in western Europe.

    (ii) Market and product innovation and development is a very necessary but expensive luxury that has to be afforded by businesses that wish to stay in operation.

    (iii) Increasing numbers of multinational businesses (including many from the Americas) are basing the registration of their business in places like Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, Switzerland and Monaco (and coming back to Ireland) , before you start looking at the more conventional tax havens. Now most of those are in the EU - but EdM carefully ignores these.

    (iv). There is nothing to prevent a multinational business placing their registration and head office in a small and remote island and have small subsidiaries serving local operations in Europe. All back office functions can be run from there as well, where there is no taxation on employment.

    (v) It is highly likely that China will set up tax havens for non-Chinese companies in places like Macau, Hong Kong etc, and especially for the financial sector.

    So how will EdM's plans work - yet again it is all hot air that will produce little financial reward - more magic money tree.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    The Conservatives have joined efforts to “decapitate” the Liberal Democrats by unseating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency.....However, the local Conservative candidate made clear that no quarter would be given in the election fight. Ian Walker said that Mr Clegg’s character would be an issue, with voters believing that he was “damaged goods”.

    Mr Walker said that the Conservatives would end up benefiting from Labour’s efforts to unseat Mr Clegg, with former Lib Dem voters coming to them to keep out Ed Miliband.

    “I don’t want to decapitate the Liberals — I don’t care about them — I just want to de-Clegg Sheffield,” Mr Walker, a local businessman, said.

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    1-6 Favourite gets home... just

    http://www1.skysports.com/racing/results/video/656718/haydock-park/17-01-2015/stanjames-com-champion-hurdle-trial
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    From a strategic point of view running hard against Clegg is utterly, utterly crackers for the Tories.

    Completely mad.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Betting lesson is perhaps don't lump on shorties going backwards quite a way out from the election ?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Labour leader give a speech to Labour Councillors. No mention of Rotherham, no apology.

    http://press.labour.org.uk/post/110330920324/ed-miliband-mp-leader-of-the-labour-party-speech

    He really is spineless.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited February 2015
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    The Conservatives have joined efforts to “decapitate” the Liberal Democrats by unseating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency.....However, the local Conservative candidate made clear that no quarter would be given in the election fight. Ian Walker said that Mr Clegg’s character would be an issue, with voters believing that he was “damaged goods”.

    Mr Walker said that the Conservatives would end up benefiting from Labour’s efforts to unseat Mr Clegg, with former Lib Dem voters coming to them to keep out Ed Miliband.

    “I don’t want to decapitate the Liberals — I don’t care about them — I just want to de-Clegg Sheffield,” Mr Walker, a local businessman, said.

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    Even from Lord A's limited hint I think it is pretty obvious who the pollster is.

    Those who are betting heavily on the stickiness of Lib Dems are getting seriously close to squeeky bum time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting lesson is perhaps don't lump on shorties going backwards quite a way out from the election ?

    The Con gain Twickenham bet doesn't look so bad now?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    dr_spyn said:

    Labour leader give a speech to Labour Councillors. No mention of Rotherham, no apology.

    http://press.labour.org.uk/post/110330920324/ed-miliband-mp-leader-of-the-labour-party-speech

    He really is spineless.

    Labour don't do apologies. It is in their DNA to believe that everything they do is always for the best, even when wearing the hindsight glasses.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    The Conservatives have joined efforts to “decapitate” the Liberal Democrats by unseating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency.....However, the local Conservative candidate made clear that no quarter would be given in the election fight. Ian Walker said that Mr Clegg’s character would be an issue, with voters believing that he was “damaged goods”.

    Mr Walker said that the Conservatives would end up benefiting from Labour’s efforts to unseat Mr Clegg, with former Lib Dem voters coming to them to keep out Ed Miliband.

    “I don’t want to decapitate the Liberals — I don’t care about them — I just want to de-Clegg Sheffield,” Mr Walker, a local businessman, said.

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    I suspect his Lordship might also be looking at the guarantee on those LibDem anti-gravity boots his polling says they are wearing.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    If the Lib Dems lose more seats than expected, doesn't that help the blues more than the reds?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    AndyJS said:

    Once again the hunches of PBers are proved to have been correct. If i remember correctly we thought Farage was probably closer to winning in Thanet than the poll originally said and that Ed couldn't be in danger of losing his seat.

    Me and isam have a bet on Ed getting over 50% of the vote in Doncaster. Me saying yes, him saying no. I had given up on it, but looks like I am in with a chance. We have beer and lunch on it, I believe.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    The Conservatives have joined efforts to “decapitate” the Liberal Democrats by unseating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency.....However, the local Conservative candidate made clear that no quarter would be given in the election fight. Ian Walker said that Mr Clegg’s character would be an issue, with voters believing that he was “damaged goods”.

    Mr Walker said that the Conservatives would end up benefiting from Labour’s efforts to unseat Mr Clegg, with former Lib Dem voters coming to them to keep out Ed Miliband.

    “I don’t want to decapitate the Liberals — I don’t care about them — I just want to de-Clegg Sheffield,” Mr Walker, a local businessman, said.

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    Sometimes it's possible to be too 'Machiavellian'. What coalitions are possible will all come down to the numbers, but personalities are important too. If a Tory/LibDem coalition is possible AND Nick Clegg is still leader then that is the likely outcome. If he isn't then it is much more likely that the LibDems will go into opposition or even support a Labour led coalition if the numbers allow that.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    Man with money to burn burns money.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Betting lesson is perhaps don't lump on shorties going backwards quite a way out from the election ?

    In fairness pulpy, I might end up paying you out on our Hallam/Solihull bet.

    :)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Morris_Dancer said:

    If the Lib Dems lose more seats than expected, doesn't that help the blues more than the reds?

    Self evidently, it depends on who they lose them to. Nick Clegg losing Hallam would help Labour and hinder the Tories. Unless you're suggesting that the Tories could win Hallam, in which case, do you fancy a bet ;-).
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Didn't the first poll in Doncaster have Ed only 5 points ahead. There was then a weekend of speculation and undermining - it was then revised more in Eds favour. Now he is on course for a landslide?

    Is this the same one poll.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Song, I was thinking more of seats in the south-west, to be honest.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    If the LibDems get say 30 seats and prop up Ed - and if as expected Ed turns out to be as popular as scrofula - then that will kill off the rest of the party. A Farron or a Cable who has just taken control isn't going to want the last rites read over the party he has just taken charge of, so I suspect the LibDems will be very aloof with all parties, whatever the arithmetic.

    They can spend a few years doing what served them so well for decades, sucking air through their teeth and saying "oh, I wouldn't do that...."
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    DavidL said:

    Even from Lord A's limited hint I think it is pretty obvious who the pollster is.

    Those who are betting heavily on the stickiness of Lib Dems are getting seriously close to squeeky bum time.

    I'm not sure it's wise to extrapolate the LD stickiness effect from a clegg/hallam poll.

    The LD's could still get 25-30 seats while clegg loses his.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories have 30 selections still to make in England.

    8 of them are in South Yorkshire: Don Valley, Doncaster Central, Doncaster North, Penistone & Stocksbridge, Sheffield Central, Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, Barnsley Central, Barnsley East.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Song, I was thinking more of seats in the south-west, to be honest.

    Yes that makes more sense. But there, in most cases, Labour aren't in contention and you have two parties of Government facing each other, both are likely to lose popularity. In the south west, if you wanted a Labour victory (and you were being logical about it) you'd vote to deprive the Tories of seats.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    His Lordship: -

    "So I must disclose that these three surveys last November are the first and only I have commissioned from a well-known but relatively new polling firm. And no, I won’t be using them again."


    A wise move by his lordship imho – and red faces in the boardroom for all those concerned.!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    MarqueeMark said:

    If the LibDems get say 30 seats and prop up Ed - and if as expected Ed turns out to be as popular as scrofula - then that will kill off the rest of the party. A Farron or a Cable who has just taken control isn't going to want the last rites read over the party he has just taken charge of, so I suspect the LibDems will be very aloof with all parties, whatever the arithmetic.

    They can spend a few years doing what served them so well for decades, sucking air through their teeth and saying "oh, I wouldn't do that...."

    Yes, I tend to agree. I can see the current coalition continuing only if Clegg wins and the numbers stack up. Besides, Labour won't have thought through how to make a coalition work, unlike the Tories.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Anyone want a bet on the LD majority in Hallam? I think Clegg will hold on, just.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited February 2015
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    .

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
    You are misunderestimating Dave & George's strategic brilliance.

    Thanks to them, they saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in the process.

    Hell, I can actually foresee the Tories ahead of Labour in seat numbers in North Britain.

    That's how brilliant they are.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    .

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
    You are misunderestimating Dave & George's strategic brilliance.

    Thanks to them, they saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in the process.

    Hell, I can actually foresee the Tories ahead of Labour in seat numbers in North Britain.

    That's how brilliant they are.
    Your humour and brilliance is only exceeded by that of your hero 'Dubya' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushism.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I've only just picked up that the new Lib Dem candidate in Somerton & Frome is David Rendel, formerly the Newbury MP.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    TSE - you've repeatedly claimed Clegg was a certainty in Hallam and yet you've also flirted with voting tactically for him. If you're so certain he'll win why not vote for the party you love and those two strategic 'geniuses' Cameron and Osborne.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    .

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
    You are misunderestimating Dave & George's strategic brilliance.

    Thanks to them, they saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in the process.

    Hell, I can actually foresee the Tories ahead of Labour in seat numbers in North Britain.

    That's how brilliant they are.
    So they handed Scotland to the SNP and are on course to have Salmond hold EdM's knackers for the next 5 years.

    I haven't seen such strategic brilliance since Napoleon went to fetch caviar in Moscow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    .

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
    You are misunderestimating Dave & George's strategic brilliance.

    Thanks to them, they saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in the process.

    Hell, I can actually foresee the Tories ahead of Labour in seat numbers in North Britain.

    That's how brilliant they are.
    Your humour and brilliance is only exceeded by that of your hero 'Dubya' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushism.
    George W Bush was never a hero of mine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    edited February 2015
    FrankBooth said:

    TSE - you've repeatedly claimed Clegg was a certainty in Hallam and yet you've also flirted with voting tactically for him. If you're so certain he'll win why not vote for the party you love and those two strategic 'geniuses' Cameron and Osborne.

    I'm more tempted to move to Rochester and register there so I can vote to oust the TPD

    I still think Clegg is safe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    .

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
    You are misunderestimating Dave & George's strategic brilliance.

    Thanks to them, they saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in the process.

    Hell, I can actually foresee the Tories ahead of Labour in seat numbers in North Britain.

    That's how brilliant they are.
    Your humour and brilliance is only exceeded by that of your hero 'Dubya' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushism.
    Dubya did have one great insight into the politics of your base though, which Ed appears to have embraced:

    "You can fool some of the people all of the time. And those are the ones you want..."


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mark Fletcher selected as Conservative candidate for Doncaster North:

    twitter.com/willknock/status/563811217714970624
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrankBooth said:

    TSE - you've repeatedly claimed Clegg was a certainty in Hallam and yet you've also flirted with voting tactically for him. If you're so certain he'll win why not vote for the party you love and those two strategic 'geniuses' Cameron and Osborne.

    I'm more tempted to move to Rochester and register there so I can vote to oust the TPD

    I still think Clegg is safe.
    Paddy have moved Labour into 2/1 from 7/2 and Lib now 1/3 from 1/6.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    antifrank said:

    I've only just picked up that the new Lib Dem candidate in Somerton & Frome is David Rendel, formerly the Newbury MP.

    The original LD candidate was Sarah Yong.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/sarah-yong-stands-down-as-lib-dem-candidate-for-marginal-seat-of-somerton-and-frome-41551.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pong said:

    Anyone want a bet on the LD majority in Hallam? I think Clegg will hold on, just.

    I agree, tactical voting by Tories will see him home by a narrow margin.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited February 2015
    Morris_Dancer said:

    If the Lib Dems lose more seats than expected, doesn't that help the blues more than the reds?

    If LD lost Hallam to LAb that is bad news for Tories.Much better to stay yellow

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    .

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
    You are misunderestimating Dave & George's strategic brilliance.

    Thanks to them, they saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in the process.

    Hell, I can actually foresee the Tories ahead of Labour in seat numbers in North Britain.

    That's how brilliant they are.
    So they handed Scotland to the SNP and are on course to have Salmond hold EdM's knackers for the next 5 years.

    I haven't seen such strategic brilliance since Napoleon went to fetch caviar in Moscow.
    You're not factoring George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the UK economy which will be a vote winner for the Blues in May.

    And on that note I shall stop trolling you as I have stuff to do this afternoon
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    antifrank said:

    I've only just picked up that the new Lib Dem candidate in Somerton & Frome is David Rendel, formerly the Newbury MP.

    An old Etonian who is not a Tory.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The campaign starts in 9 weeks' time. The LDs still have 250 candidates to select.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Smithson, agree on Hallam, but I did say 'more seats', rather than just that one in particular.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    edited February 2015
    This is why I ALWAYS look at His Lordship's National poll tables to double-check whether his published figures make sense, after making the necessary calculation for spiral of silence, and then plug the CALCULATED figures into ELBOW.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AndyJS said:

    The campaign starts in 9 weeks' time. The LDs still have 250 candidates to select.

    Those are in seats where no effort will be put in.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    MarqueeMark said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Labour leader give a speech to Labour Councillors. No mention of Rotherham, no apology.

    http://press.labour.org.uk/post/110330920324/ed-miliband-mp-leader-of-the-labour-party-speech

    He really is spineless.

    Labour don't do apologies. It is in their DNA to believe that everything they do is always for the best, even when wearing the hindsight glasses.
    Ed's speech "In every area, I see Labour in local government leading the way and being at the heart of the next Labour government’s work."

    Rotherham?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2015
    Odd that just 2 candidates have been selected for Penistone & Stocksbridge so far: Angela Smith (Lab) and Colin Porter (Eng Dem). You'd have thought Con, UKIP and - to a lesser extent - the LDs would all interested in the constituency.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    logical_song said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times reported yesterday

    .

    Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.
    I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.

    I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.

    However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.

    Imagine May the 7th.

    The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.

    Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
    They'll only screw it up.

    cue -" George that's another fine mess you've gotten me in to"
    You are misunderestimating Dave & George's strategic brilliance.

    Thanks to them, they saved the Union and managed to destroy Scottish Labour in the process.

    Hell, I can actually foresee the Tories ahead of Labour in seat numbers in North Britain.

    That's how brilliant they are.
    So they handed Scotland to the SNP and are on course to have Salmond hold EdM's knackers for the next 5 years.

    I haven't seen such strategic brilliance since Napoleon went to fetch caviar in Moscow.
    You're not factoring George Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the UK economy which will be a vote winner for the Blues in May.

    And on that note I shall stop trolling you as I have stuff to do this afternoon
    Sometimes I wonder if you are trolling yourself. George is looking at a voteless recovery so far. Lab>SNP/Green switching doesn't change that.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AndyJS said:

    Odd that just 2 candidates have been selected for Penistone & Stocksbridge so far: Angela Smith (Lab) and Colin Porter (Eng Dem). You'd have thought Con, UKIP and - to a lesser extent - the LDs would all interested in the constituency.

    There was a time when Penistone would get blocked by the spam filter.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    For those wot missed it, January's "Super-ELBOW" - all polls with field-work end-dates 1st Jan to 31st Jan, a total of 43 polls with a total weighted sample of 49,086.

    (changes from December in brackets)

    Lab 33.3% (-0.4)
    Con 32.1% (+0.1)
    UKIP 15.2% (-0.3)
    LD 7.3% (-0.1)
    Green 6.5% (+0.5)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564030761100402689
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    another_richard said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:



    You pick up on the increase in exurban commuters / Conservative voters.

    But you miss the associated demographic changes within urban areas - which are pro-Labour.

    Which, for example, makes the likes of Enfield North and Brentford (and Enfield Southgate and Ilford North) far more likely to change hands than their majorities suggest.
    While Enfield North is in Greater London, this particular part of London Politically goes out of London in reality into what is better described as Hertfordshire Green Belt.

    For Brentford and Isleworth, I said "Tory Chiswick, Labour Isleworth. Good barometer seat for London.Another one Labour need to win if they are serious" which aligns with your view


    Enfield Southgate and Ilford North are not considered as they are not among the thirty most marginal seats, however I think them more likely to change hands than Enfield North, because they are areas that said commuters are moving out from!
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    MikeSmithson said:

    What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.

    I am sure about 70% of the public think politicians are generally awful but also about 70% think their local MP is a good egg and not like the rest of 'em.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Roger said:

    At this rate Labour will be taking Huntingdon

    No, but UKIP might.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Robert Kimbell ‏@RedHotSquirrel 22m22 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage to speak to North East UKIP Conference this weekend http://mirr.im/1C6qSRg
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: This: http://t.co/xdK7gkbekx
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 2h2 hours ago
    Election planned for 14 February in #Nigeria to be postponed to give a new multinational force time to secure areas under #BokoHaram control
    |
    |
    Barry Ukip ‏@BarryUkip 29m29 minutes ago
    @SkyNewsBreak @Safadreamer Maybe we need a multinational force to allow a fair election in Rotherham. South Yorkshire police are useless

    I can't disagree with that.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeSmithson said:

    AndyJS said:

    The campaign starts in 9 weeks' time. The LDs still have 250 candidates to select.

    Those are in seats where no effort will be put in.

    Will they select? Could affect the Lost Deposit market, as well as forcing some tactical voting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Financier said:


    (iii) Increasing numbers of multinational businesses (including many from the Americas) are basing the registration of their business in places like Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, Switzerland and Monaco (and coming back to Ireland) , before you start looking at the more conventional tax havens. Now most of those are in the EU - but EdM carefully ignores these.

    Those are just for transparency/obsfucation reasons - the money all gets siphoned off to Caribbean (often British dependecies) tax havens in the end same as before.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    NATOSource retweeted
    Mathias Blumencron ‏@mtblumencron 8m8 minutes ago
    A scary situation at #MSC2015: Never during the last 20 years the West and Russia were so far apart.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    Roger said:

    At this rate Labour will be taking Huntingdon

    No, but UKIP might.
    UKIP are 100/1 with Betfair in this seat.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    UKIP opens campaign office in Wolverhampton city centre http://t.co/eomiVcodDQ pic.twitter.com/5oD02iqI47

    — UKIP (@UKIP) February 6, 2015
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Latest News Headlines

    A government survey has shown that 91% of illegal immigrants come to Britain
    so that they can see their own doctor.

    ---------------------------------------

    Due to the current economic crisis, Greece is cancelling all production of
    humus and Taramasalata. It's a double dip recession.


    And its goodnight from me, and goodnight from him.....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,122
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    another_richard said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:



    You pick up on the increase in exurban commuters / Conservative voters.

    But you miss the associated demographic changes within urban areas - which are pro-Labour.

    Which, for example, makes the likes of Enfield North and Brentford (and Enfield Southgate and Ilford North) far more likely to change hands than their majorities suggest.
    While Enfield North is in Greater London, this particular part of London Politically goes out of London in reality into what is better described as Hertfordshire Green Belt.

    For Brentford and Isleworth, I said "Tory Chiswick, Labour Isleworth. Good barometer seat for London.Another one Labour need to win if they are serious" which aligns with your view


    Enfield Southgate and Ilford North are not considered as they are not among the thirty most marginal seats, however I think them more likely to change hands than Enfield North, because they are areas that said commuters are moving out from!
    Ilford North, which is where I'm based, was only 44% White British in 2011.
This discussion has been closed.