politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft finds errors in his Doncaster N, Thanet S & H
Comments
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Liberal leader Archibald Sinclair was defeated at Caithness & Sutherland in 1945. The leader of Plaid Cymru was defeated twice at Carmarthen - 1970 and 1979. Gordon Wilson as SNP leader lost Dundee East in 1987. Most recently, of course, was Peter Robinson's rejection in 2010!rottenborough said:
Hold your nerve. Still some time to go yet and it would be a historic event for a party leader to lose their seat. This hasn't happened for a very long time (Balfour - 1906?).antifrank said:It's hard to avoid the conclusion now that Nick Clegg is up against it. Which is a shame because I've bet a fair bit on him keeping his seat.
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That rather implies that Clegg's opinion is going to matter. I suspect that a good few LibDem MPs will not give a toss what he thinks!rottenborough said:If Clegg does lose, then it seems to me that it is game over for a Tory-LD coalition. Who would be their temporary leader during negotiations? Vince? Farron?
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I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.MikeSmithson said:What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
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Alas, this movement of people in to semi rural areas around cities also has an element of "White Flight" to it, which is not good for future national unity.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Ilford North, which is where I'm based, was only 44% White British in 2011.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
While Enfield North is in Greater London, this particular part of London Politically goes out of London in reality into what is better described as Hertfordshire Green Belt.another_richard said:
You pick up on the increase in exurban commuters / Conservative voters.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
But you miss the associated demographic changes within urban areas - which are pro-Labour.
Which, for example, makes the likes of Enfield North and Brentford (and Enfield Southgate and Ilford North) far more likely to change hands than their majorities suggest.
For Brentford and Isleworth, I said "Tory Chiswick, Labour Isleworth. Good barometer seat for London.Another one Labour need to win if they are serious" which aligns with your view
Enfield Southgate and Ilford North are not considered as they are not among the thirty most marginal seats, however I think them more likely to change hands than Enfield North, because they are areas that said commuters are moving out from!0 -
More News Headlines
Two women called at my door and asked what bread I ate. When I said white, they gave me a lecture on the benefits of brown bread for 30 minutes. I think they were Hovis Witnesses.
------------------------------------------
Seven wheelchair athletes have been banned from the Paralympics after they tested positive for WD40.
---------------------------------------------
I'll get my coat......
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@iainmartin1: Keep hearing from Nats how ace their candidates are. Here's 20 year-old against @DAlexanderMP on "putting the nut in" http://t.co/198kJsIWjz0
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She said "she had wanted to headbutt Labour opponents" at the "Hope over Fear" rally. Looks like 'Fear' is ahead.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Keep hearing from Nats how ace their candidates are. Here's 20 year-old against @DAlexanderMP on "putting the nut in" http://t.co/198kJsIWjz
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Normal for Glasgow.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Keep hearing from Nats how ace their candidates are. Here's 20 year-old against @DAlexanderMP on "putting the nut in" http://t.co/198kJsIWjz
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Do you have a date and venue in mind, or does the winner decide?SouthamObserver said:
Me and isam have a bet on Ed getting over 50% of the vote in Doncaster. Me saying yes, him saying no. I had given up on it, but looks like I am in with a chance. We have beer and lunch on it, I believe.AndyJS said:Once again the hunches of PBers are proved to have been correct. If i remember correctly we thought Farage was probably closer to winning in Thanet than the poll originally said and that Ed couldn't be in danger of losing his seat.
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Not sure about that, I think they have a good chance of holding 30 seats, which is more than they won in 1983 with 26% of the vote.MikeK said:
I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.MikeSmithson said:What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
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Conservative supporters in northern Lib Dem seats need to realise that they should vote tactically for the Lib Dem candidate to keep out Labour.
That way they might stand a chance of another coalition between Conservatives and Lib Dems which has worked reasonably well for the country in the government debt crisis which still continues.0 -
Supermarkets asked to move daffodils away from fruit and veg, in case they're mistaken for food:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31176748
I like the top comment:
"This is just interfering with natural selection. The nation's collective IQ will fall as a result."0 -
I reckon they're just trying to mess with @Pulpstar's lost deposit bet...MikeSmithson said:
Those are in seats where no effort will be put in.AndyJS said:The campaign starts in 9 weeks' time. The LDs still have 250 candidates to select.
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Not for big jessies like Scott, he thinks she should be playing with dolls like him. He prefers the usual doormat donkeys the nasty parties select.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Normal for Glasgow.Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Keep hearing from Nats how ace their candidates are. Here's 20 year-old against @DAlexanderMP on "putting the nut in" http://t.co/198kJsIWjz
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Agree. But the silver lining would be CON GAIN in 2016.MikeSmithson said:
If LD lost Hallam to LAb that is bad news for Tories.Much better to stay yellowMorris_Dancer said:If the Lib Dems lose more seats than expected, doesn't that help the blues more than the reds?
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https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/472020868504489984AndyJS said:
Not sure about that, I think they have a good chance of holding 30 seats, which is more than they won in 1983 with 26% of the vote.MikeK said:
I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.MikeSmithson said:What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
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Ireland are 12 on Ladbrokes to win the World Cup, 1/3 the odds each way.
Decided to back them, each way. Not with a hefty stake, of course, but I think of the four teams with shorter odds, England won't win it, and Australia won't win it. That leaves the All Blacks, Springboks and the Irish, I think.0 -
Don't question lord Ashcroft method on here.
Politicalbetting and Ashcroft have a relationship. Shame!!!0 -
MikeK said:
UKIP opens campaign office in Wolverhampton city centre http://t.co/eomiVcodDQ pic.twitter.com/5oD02iqI47
— UKIP (@UKIP) February 6, 2015
Wolverhampton city centre last Tuesday:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5640501466072432640 -
When is the owner of the site going t come out and support the Tories in Bedford.
Voting lib dem is a wasted vote.
Voting Tory is good for business with the flock.
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Hello everyone.
My birthday today so off for lunch. Had an agreeable morning, including an interesting chat with the first Labour Party canvasser I've seen. Told him that housing was IMO more important than the NHS.
Have a good day all.0 -
Not so much.FrankBooth said:
I am sure about 70% of the public think politicians are generally awful but also about 70% think their local MP is a good egg and not like the rest of 'em.MikeSmithson said:What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
"Most people rate their local MP pretty much the same as they rate MPs in general, and a minority are a bit more positive about their local MP than they are about MPs in general. "
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/if-politicians-want-love-they-should-get-a-spaniel-by-phil-cowley/0 -
Happy Birthday Cyclefree! :-)0
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Many happy canvass returnsCyclefree said:Hello everyone.
My birthday today so off for lunch. Had an agreeable morning, including an interesting chat with the first Labour Party canvasser I've seen. Told him that housing was IMO more important than the NHS.
Have a good day all.
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That will of course favour Labour - the problem is turnout...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Ilford North, which is where I'm based, was only 44% White British in 2011.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
While Enfield North is in Greater London, this particular part of London Politically goes out of London in reality into what is better described as Hertfordshire Green Belt.another_richard said:
You pick up on the increase in exurban commuters / Conservative voters.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
But you miss the associated demographic changes within urban areas - which are pro-Labour.
Which, for example, makes the likes of Enfield North and Brentford (and Enfield Southgate and Ilford North) far more likely to change hands than their majorities suggest.
For Brentford and Isleworth, I said "Tory Chiswick, Labour Isleworth. Good barometer seat for London.Another one Labour need to win if they are serious" which aligns with your view
Enfield Southgate and Ilford North are not considered as they are not among the thirty most marginal seats, however I think them more likely to change hands than Enfield North, because they are areas that said commuters are moving out from!
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All to play for!SouthamObserver said:
Me and isam have a bet on Ed getting over 50% of the vote in Doncaster. Me saying yes, him saying no. I had given up on it, but looks like I am in with a chance. We have beer and lunch on it, I believe.AndyJS said:Once again the hunches of PBers are proved to have been correct. If i remember correctly we thought Farage was probably closer to winning in Thanet than the poll originally said and that Ed couldn't be in danger of losing his seat.
At one stage it looked like you were looking for reasons to void it...0 -
Wolverhampton city centre last Tuesday:Sunil_Prasannan said:MikeK said:UKIP opens campaign office in Wolverhampton city centre http://t.co/eomiVcodDQ pic.twitter.com/5oD02iqI47
— UKIP (@UKIP) February 6, 2015
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564050146607243264
What's the connection?
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Happy birthday, Miss Cyclefree.0
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In Holland’s schools language lessons are single period only.Paul_Mid_Beds said:More News Headlines
Two women called at my door and asked what bread I ate. When I said white, they gave me a lecture on the benefits of brown bread for 30 minutes. I think they were Hovis Witnesses.
------------------------------------------
Seven wheelchair athletes have been banned from the Paralympics after they tested positive for WD40.
---------------------------------------------
I'll get my coat......
After all, who wants Double-Dutch?
(Not mine, on the radio at midday!)
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Looks fine to me.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Con gain Twickenham bet doesn't look so bad now?Pulpstar said:Betting lesson is perhaps don't lump on shorties going backwards quite a way out from the election ?
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What's the connection?LordWakefield said:
Wolverhampton city centre last Tuesday:Sunil_Prasannan said:MikeK said:UKIP opens campaign office in Wolverhampton city centre http://t.co/eomiVcodDQ pic.twitter.com/5oD02iqI47
— UKIP (@UKIP) February 6, 2015
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564050146607243264
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.0 -
Another hair-raising story from Rotherham.
Mikkil @MikkiL 14m14 minutes ago
It's the social workers who are racist, say Slovak parents in UKIP fostering scandal: The Mail ... http://ln.is/www.dailymail.co.uk/1D8Pg … via @MailOnline0 -
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.OldKingCole said:
What's the connection?LordWakefield said:
Wolverhampton city centre last Tuesday:Sunil_Prasannan said:MikeK said:UKIP opens campaign office in Wolverhampton city centre http://t.co/eomiVcodDQ pic.twitter.com/5oD02iqI47
— UKIP (@UKIP) February 6, 2015
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564050146607243264
OK, but whats the connection to UKIP?
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Seems a tad generous to me.antifrank said:
UKIP are 100/1 with Betfair in this seat.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL
European Parliamentary Election
on Thursday 22 May 2014
Result of poll for the local counting area of Huntingdonshire
I, Joanne Lancaster, being the Local Returning Officer at the above election, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for the Huntingdonshire local counting area in the said election is as follows:
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now 831
British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care 239
Christian Peoples Alliance 344
Conservative Party – For real change in Europe 15,335
English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean! 397
Green Party 3,397
Labour Party 4,587
Liberal Democrats 3,589
NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights 139
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 16,765
http://www.huntingdonshire.gov.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/HDCCMS/Documents/Elections/Results/2014/Declaration of results - European 2014.pdf0 -
I've actually put a small bet on this. I'm not expecting to collect though.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Seems a tad generous to me.antifrank said:
UKIP are 100/1 with Betfair in this seat.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL
European Parliamentary Election
on Thursday 22 May 2014
Result of poll for the local counting area of Huntingdonshire
I, Joanne Lancaster, being the Local Returning Officer at the above election, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for the Huntingdonshire local counting area in the said election is as follows:
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now 831
British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care 239
Christian Peoples Alliance 344
Conservative Party – For real change in Europe 15,335
English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean! 397
Green Party 3,397
Labour Party 4,587
Liberal Democrats 3,589
NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights 139
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 16,765
http://www.huntingdonshire.gov.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/HDCCMS/Documents/Elections/Results/2014/Declaration of results - European 2014.pdf
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Happy Birthday Cyclefree!
OT. Is there any reason why the Tories have chosen Grant Shapps to be their party chairman? Surely the last person you'd want in such a sensitive position is a spiv like him. If it's for his dark Faustian skills then why not give him a back room job?0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree and is one of the reasons I was thinking of voting for Clegg in May.logical_song said:
Clegg is the Tories best chance of retaining power. Any other LibDem leader would be less inclined to stay in coalition.TheScreamingEagles said:The Times reported yesterday
The Conservatives have joined efforts to “decapitate” the Liberal Democrats by unseating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency.....However, the local Conservative candidate made clear that no quarter would be given in the election fight. Ian Walker said that Mr Clegg’s character would be an issue, with voters believing that he was “damaged goods”.
Mr Walker said that the Conservatives would end up benefiting from Labour’s efforts to unseat Mr Clegg, with former Lib Dem voters coming to them to keep out Ed Miliband.
“I don’t want to decapitate the Liberals — I don’t care about them — I just want to de-Clegg Sheffield,” Mr Walker, a local businessman, said.
I do get the feeling Ian Walker's comments fall into the catergory of well what else do you expect him to say.
However my inner Machivelian says is this a careful strategic plan from the Tories.
Imagine May the 7th.
The Tories largest party, Lib Dems massacred and leaderless, Labour engaging in infighting after losing 35 Scottish seats.
Could be a perfect situation for the Tories to take advantage of.
Which bits of Scotland ?MikeK said:
I hate to tell you this Mike, but the L/Dems are facing almost total annihilation at the GE, no matter what Lord Ashcroft's polling says.MikeSmithson said:What makes a huge difference in constituency polls is when you name the candidates. This is now being done by the parties in their private polls and an uplift for incumbents, bigger than with the Ashcroft 2nd question, is often seen I am told. This is particularly the case in Scotland.
Highlands and islands or the deprived "Yes" areas of West Scotland with massive swings against Labour ?0 -
This total disgrace @SarahChampionMP is obviously another PC afflicted leftard. It's not Asian, it's Pakistani Muslim pic.twitter.com/iImbEdOVkd
— Je Suis Charlie (@KillSocialism) February 7, 20150 -
I've put a VERY small bet on this too, Betfair Sportsbook restricting me to 15 pence !!!antifrank said:
I've actually put a small bet on this. I'm not expecting to collect though.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Seems a tad generous to me.antifrank said:
UKIP are 100/1 with Betfair in this seat.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
DECLARATION OF RESULT OF POLL
European Parliamentary Election
on Thursday 22 May 2014
Result of poll for the local counting area of Huntingdonshire
I, Joanne Lancaster, being the Local Returning Officer at the above election, do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for the Huntingdonshire local counting area in the said election is as follows:
An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now 831
British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care 239
Christian Peoples Alliance 344
Conservative Party – For real change in Europe 15,335
English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean! 397
Green Party 3,397
Labour Party 4,587
Liberal Democrats 3,589
NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights 139
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 16,765
http://www.huntingdonshire.gov.uk/SiteCollectionDocuments/HDCCMS/Documents/Elections/Results/2014/Declaration of results - European 2014.pdf0 -
Something seems to be wrong with my sound card, I keep hearing dog whistles.0
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Grant Schapps was once a commercials director...0
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Does your mother like sewing?Scott_P said:@iainmartin1: Keep hearing from Nats how ace their candidates are. Here's 20 year-old against @DAlexanderMP on "putting the nut in" http://t.co/198kJsIWjz
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@richardDodd
Did he offer a "money back" guarantee to the clients?0 -
OK, but whats the connection to UKIP?MikeK said:
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.OldKingCole said:
What's the connection?LordWakefield said:
Wolverhampton city centre last Tuesday:Sunil_Prasannan said:MikeK said:UKIP opens campaign office in Wolverhampton city centre http://t.co/eomiVcodDQ pic.twitter.com/5oD02iqI47
— UKIP (@UKIP) February 6, 2015
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564050146607243264
Colour of the poster? Wishful thinking?0 -
Kerching.
Told you Scrapheap. Have faith in my tipping.
Now to stick some of my winnings on Villa beating Chelsea0 -
Back from a spot of golf - how did it go for the boys from the Lane...0
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MikeK said:
This total disgrace @SarahChampionMP is obviously another PC afflicted leftard. It's not Asian, it's Pakistani Muslim pic.twitter.com/iImbEdOVkd
— Je Suis Charlie (@KillSocialism) February 7, 2015
A very high proportion of child-abusers overall are white men. Just not in Rotherham. As far as we know!0 -
Darn. The late goal in the Tottenham / Arsenal match has wiped out a potential £100 win.0
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As tipped by me. Spurs win.Scrapheap_as_was said:Back from a spot of golf - how did it go for the boys from the Lane...
2-1
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Ok who wins when Spurs come to Anfield this week mystic meg?TheScreamingEagles said:Kerching.
Told you Scrapheap. Have faith in my tipping.
Now to stick some of my winnings on Villa beating Chelsea0 -
Smarmeron Does Roger.0
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Well you know I never bet on Liverpool winning but my head says Liverpool to win.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Ok who wins when Spurs come to Anfield this week mystic meg?TheScreamingEagles said:Kerching.
Told you Scrapheap. Have faith in my tipping.
Now to stick some of my winnings on Villa beating Chelsea0 -
GET IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Kane for PM...0
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MikeK
I'm amazed that someone who themselves is from an ethnic minority can post such racist garbage as you seem to have started doing. That's the disgrace.
"View image on Twitter
Je Suis Charlie @KillSocialism
etc etc etc0 -
Btw I know there is alot of perceived and probably actual bias in the English media, but Scotland's Daily Record has to take the cake.
Have a listen to this interview, it's their political editor - propaganda wing of the Labour party !!!
http://worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com/crichton-macwhirter-gms-5feb2015.mp30 -
I thought most child sexual abuse was carried out my members of the family, whether parents, step-parents, fosterers, etc?0
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Didn't some Liberals misuse funds from Jack Hayward, something to do with killing a great Dane bitch...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/thorpes-friends--and-a-murder-conspiracy-1352118.html
or purchasing some letters.0 -
@OldKingCole
I posted this last night.
http://www.nickdavies.net/1998/04/01/the-sheer-scale-of-child-sexual-abuse-in-britain/
That time it wasn't invisible Muslims. but the perpetrators were equally invisible.
Child abuse only needs access and a means of control, it has nothing to do with race or culture.
However, lets not let facts stand in the way of a perceived political advantage?0 -
Lord Sugar is tweeting that bell-end Piers Morgan had said Kane wasn't good enough to get on the Arsenal bench...
what is it with media lefties .... Piers and Polly two of my Room 101 candidates!0 -
Yup.dr_spyn said:Didn't some Liberals misuse funds from Jack Hayward, something to do with killing a great Dane bitch...
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Hatward, once a substantial donor to the Libs, gave evidence for the Crown in the Thorpe trial.dr_spyn said:Didn't some Liberals misuse funds from Jack Hayward, something to do with killing a great Dane bitch...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/thorpes-friends--and-a-murder-conspiracy-1352118.html
or purchasing some letters.0 -
Grandiose
"I thought most child sexual abuse was carried out my members of the family, whether parents, step-parents, fosterers, etc? "
Indeed and more interesting still two thirds of those in social security care in Rotherham were there because of abuse at home.0 -
I'm not quite sure what is so racist about the tweet that MikeK shared, but I do know who is a racist. It is you, for your obvious belief that only members of the white Anglo-Saxon majority can be racist.Roger said:MikeK
I'm amazed that someone who themselves is from an ethnic minority can post such racist garbage as you seem to have started doing. That's the disgrace.
"View image on Twitter
Je Suis Charlie @KillSocialism
etc etc etc
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IMO Huntingdon is a seat where UKIP will get a lot of votes but without any chance of winning. The Tories are too strong. UKIP will certainly be the main opposition after May though.0
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Horrifying read, isn’t it! And, apparently, didn’t lead to either proper inquiries or to prosecutions. Where that Kiwi Judge will start I don’t know!Smarmeron said:@OldKingCole
I posted this last night.
http://www.nickdavies.net/1998/04/01/the-sheer-scale-of-child-sexual-abuse-in-britain/
That time it wasn't invisible Muslims. but the perpetrators were equally invisible.
Child abuse only needs access and a means of control, it has nothing to do with race or culture.
However, lets not let facts stand in the way of a perceived political advantage?0 -
John Lilburne
"I'm not quite sure what is so racist about the tweet that MikeK shared, but I do know who is a racist. It is you, for your obvious belief that only members of the white Anglo-Saxon majority can be racist."
To try to suggest any disreputable behaviour is stereotypical of a particular race is racist. No ifs no buts......
The mystery is that Mike allows these people to soil his site0 -
Not sure what that shows us, apart from nothing. It is 17 years old and appears to be a study based on cases resulting in convictions, which obviously will not include anything like the Rotherham cases which have gone unchecked for years. What has been going on in Rotherham and other cities has been brushed under the carpet until recently, it was certainly hidden from view in 1998. To use it as evidence is to perpetuate the same mentality that has let it unchecked for yearsSmarmeron said:@OldKingCole
I posted this last night.
http://www.nickdavies.net/1998/04/01/the-sheer-scale-of-child-sexual-abuse-in-britain/
That time it wasn't invisible Muslims. but the perpetrators were equally invisible.
Child abuse only needs access and a means of control, it has nothing to do with race or culture.
However, lets not let facts stand in the way of a perceived political advantage?
0 -
That's because the others were ignored.Roger said:Grandiose
"I thought most child sexual abuse was carried out my members of the family, whether parents, step-parents, fosterers, etc? "
Indeed and more interesting still two thirds of those in social security care in Rotherham were there because of abuse at home.
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@OldKingCole
That particular article points out striking similarities to all the other cases.
Convenient omissions, collusion, and lessons learned.
It carries on like this every time, it is so horrific that the public assumes it is a one off instead of a pointer to something far larger.
Yes, investigate taxi companies and late night takeaways, but don't assume that that of itself will solve anything more than a small fraction of the abuse..0 -
Massive win Ozil FGS but would probably have swapped it for 3 points
Better team on the day won, cant complain0 -
Agree with you about the “value” but it is indicative of the situation. I still think that the fact that outlines a situation thatr had gone on for years underlines how endemic that sort of behaviour is. As I said upthread, that judge is goping to have a difficult task.JohnLilburne said:
Not sure what that shows us, apart from nothing. It is 17 years old and appears to be a study based on cases resulting in convictions, which obviously will not include anything like the Rotherham cases which have gone unchecked for years. What has been going on in Rotherham and other cities has been brushed under the carpet until recently, it was certainly hidden from view in 1998. To use it as evidence is to perpetuate the same mentality that has let it unchecked for yearsSmarmeron said:@OldKingCole
I posted this last night.
http://www.nickdavies.net/1998/04/01/the-sheer-scale-of-child-sexual-abuse-in-britain/
That time it wasn't invisible Muslims. but the perpetrators were equally invisible.
Child abuse only needs access and a means of control, it has nothing to do with race or culture.
However, lets not let facts stand in the way of a perceived political advantage?0 -
@JohnLilburne
In the case of that article, how long did the individuals get away with it, and are you assuming that no one else was doing the same thing with impunity?0 -
Colour of the poster? Wishful thinking?OldKingCole said:
OK, but whats the connection to UKIP?MikeK said:
Had to check; Wikipedia says Sir Jack Arnold Hayward, OBE (14 June 1923 – 13 January 2015) was an English businessman, property developer, philanthropist and president of English football club Wolverhampton Wanderers.OldKingCole said:
What's the connection?LordWakefield said:
Wolverhampton city centre last Tuesday:Sunil_Prasannan said:MikeK said:UKIP opens campaign office in Wolverhampton city centre http://t.co/eomiVcodDQ pic.twitter.com/5oD02iqI47
— UKIP (@UKIP) February 6, 2015
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/564050146607243264
Wolverhampton? ( I was there during the week)0 -
Betting question:
Why on earth are Hills 5-6 on Inverclyde still ? I've topped up.0 -
Shadsy knows.. 5/2 UKIP in Rotherham0
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Italy doing a good job against Ireland. No Irish tries yet.0
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Well your comment that you were surprised that MikeK posted this as a member of an ethnic minority shows that you are not surprised if a member of the ethnic majority does so. You are clearly imputing that a disreputable activity is stereotypical of a particular ethnic group. It is you, sir, who show yourself to be a racist by that remark.Roger said:John Lilburne
"I'm not quite sure what is so racist about the tweet that MikeK shared, but I do know who is a racist. It is you, for your obvious belief that only members of the white Anglo-Saxon majority can be racist."
To try to suggest any disreputable behaviour is stereotypical of a particular race is racist. No ifs no buts......
The mystery is that Mike allows these people to soil his site
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans.
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Quite, if that's a real quote it seems to be wrong in almost every element - quite offensive to imagine that people not in relationships are somehow more likely to be deviants.Grandiose said:I thought most child sexual abuse was carried out my members of the family, whether parents, step-parents, fosterers, etc?
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As I said in my post yesterday, I think that's a very good price.Pulpstar said:Betting question:
Why on earth are Hills 5-6 on Inverclyde still ? I've topped up.0 -
Coral 8/11 UKIP over 4.5 is a bet0
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@JohnLilburne
"If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour...."
Politicians, bankers, police, pop stars, and Mr James from The Muse Cottage in Skittery Trumpet? (the latter only practising during holidays to Goa or Banckock)
There is no fruckin "type", they are in every walk of life and of every race and culture.
Play little games with politics if you like, but you are doing a disservice to the victims.0 -
John Lilburne
"Well your comment that you were surprised that MikeK posted this as a member of an ethnic minority shows that you are not surprised if a member of the ethnic majority does so
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans."
No but what is unacceptable is to draw any inferences about Italian-Americans. As a member of an ethnic minority MikeK should be more aware than most of the damage that can be wrought by creating stereotypes. There are plenty of propaganda films which make the point perfectly which I would post if I didn't think there was such a willing audience.0 -
Not only that, but playing politics with the issue will detract from a proper investigation.Smarmeron said:@JohnLilburne
"If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour...."
Politicians, bankers, police, pop stars, and Mr James from The Muse Cottage in Skittery Trumpet? (the latter only practising during holidays to Goa or Banckock)
There is no fruckin "type", they are in every walk of life and of every race and culture.
Play little games with politics if you like, but you are doing a disservice to the victims.0 -
I'm am absolutely not a racist, but Sarah Champion MP is obviously an inverted racist as she deliberately targets WHITE MEN as rapists and child abusers, when she knew full well that the vast majority of perpetrators in Rotherham were of Pakistani muslim stock. Helped no doubt by some native whites out for what they could get.Roger said:MikeK
I'm amazed that someone who themselves is from an ethnic minority can post such racist garbage as you seem to have started doing. That's the disgrace.
"View image on Twitter
Je Suis Charlie @KillSocialism
etc etc etc
I say it like I see it, and I would speak out against people of any race or religion if it was involved in these vile practises.
It's a pity that you support a Labour party that is sick in outlook, with policies of destruction and the blatant selling of the UK to the EU as quick as can be accomplished, in the hope of a socialist heaven. Where I concur with the original tweeter is in the slogan: Kill Socialism. Hear, hear!0 -
I pointed months ago that Lord A's polls had some basic mistakes as if some had rushed to complete it and fill in the numbers without double checking , however I didn't knew that it was so broad based.
I'm afraid that most of Lord A's constituency polls might have the same mistakes, if that were the case then it's back to the drawing board and back to UNS, at least we have some ICM and Survation constituency polls.0 -
Yes I agree that the article shows the depth and breadth of the problem, as it was "traditionally" seen in 1998 (and has presumably gone on since). What I don't accept is Smarmeron's apparent view that this means that we shouldn't get too excited about the organised gang-based trafficking going on in Rotherham etc. The truth is that this is in addition to the endemic child abuse we already knew about and an additional source of concern.OldKingCole said:
Agree with you about the “value” but it is indicative of the situation. I still think that the fact that outlines a situation thatr had gone on for years underlines how endemic that sort of behaviour is. As I said upthread, that judge is goping to have a difficult task.JohnLilburne said:
Not sure what that shows us, apart from nothing. It is 17 years old and appears to be a study based on cases resulting in convictions, which obviously will not include anything like the Rotherham cases which have gone unchecked for years. What has been going on in Rotherham and other cities has been brushed under the carpet until recently, it was certainly hidden from view in 1998. To use it as evidence is to perpetuate the same mentality that has let it unchecked for yearsSmarmeron said:@OldKingCole
I posted this last night.
http://www.nickdavies.net/1998/04/01/the-sheer-scale-of-child-sexual-abuse-in-britain/
That time it wasn't invisible Muslims. but the perpetrators were equally invisible.
Child abuse only needs access and a means of control, it has nothing to do with race or culture.
However, lets not let facts stand in the way of a perceived political advantage?
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@OldKingCole
One can only hope that justice will not be blinded again, but I am far from optimistic.
e.g. (from the earlier article)
"For example, police now invest relatively little time in the surveillance of public toilets where gay men go cottaging. The one thing that is likely still to trigger such an operation is a complaint that under-aged boys are involved – unless, that is, the toilets in question happen to be those behind the Royal Courts of Justice in the Strand, in which case, under the terms of a long-standing Metropolitan Police policy, the operation will take place only if it has the approval of an officer of the rank of commander or above. According to experienced London officers, the reason is that those toilets are used by High Court judges and barristers, and the Metropolitan Police have always said they do not want to encounter such a powerful offender without special authority."
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Scot P Tcp etc
See the boys are at it again pasting the Telegraphs odious Iain Martin and picking on a 20 year old women. I actually watched a video post of this young candidate whom I have never met and it was intelligent, unscripted and refreshing.
None of the boys attacking her know the slightest thing about her but why let that stop your misogynist bullying?. In any case I suspect she will make more of on public life ceratinly than Iain Martin ever will. I really do hope she gives wee Dougie , a man who didn't even have the guts to defend his own sister, a sound beating.0 -
I feel vindicated, last year I was the first to press the issue that Clegg was having serious trouble in Sheffield Hallam only to get a bucket on my head from TSE everytime I dared to mention it.FrankBooth said:TSE - you've repeatedly claimed Clegg was a certainty in Hallam and yet you've also flirted with voting tactically for him. If you're so certain he'll win why not vote for the party you love and those two strategic 'geniuses' Cameron and Osborne.
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Oh please. Your sort don't care about the victims, as long as they are white skanks living in Northern cities.Smarmeron said:@JohnLilburne
"If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour...."
Politicians, bankers, police, pop stars, and Mr James from The Muse Cottage in Skittery Trumpet? (the latter only practising during holidays to Goa or Banckock)
There is no fruckin "type", they are in every walk of life and of every race and culture.
Play little games with politics if you like, but you are doing a disservice to the victims.
If there is an organised ring of child abusers who are bankers, politicians or entertainers, we should clearly say so. Similarly if it is a ring of Pakistani-origin taxi drivers.
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Lets hope Lord A's Scottish constituency polls aren't riddled with rickets eh?0
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@JohnLilburne
Is it worse to be raped by a Pakistani taxi driver than your local MP?
You only wish to see what you want, and as such, you are an enabler.
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I fear that both JohnLilburne and Smarmeron are identifying an issue which is likely to prove a problem for the police; that of resources. Smarmeron makes the point about cottaging, and public toilets not being watched now, and unquestionably when dealing with gangs much police time will be taken up with actual interviews, some of which will have to be handled by specially trained officers.0
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@OldKingCole
All I am pointing out is that if you discover a nest of vermin, don't assume it is the only nest in the vicinity or that it is the one species.0 -
Testing week for OGH, with Socrates turning out to be right and Lord A turning out to be wrong about everything.
The real scandal is this: as this crime is at least equally prevalent among non-Pakistanis as among Pakistanis, and assuming a Pakistani population of 20% in Rotherham, there are at least 7,000 victims of the non-Pakistani child abuse rings in Rotherham none of whom have come to light. Why aren't you out campaigning for their rights, Roger?Roger said:John Lilburne
"Well your comment that you were surprised that MikeK posted this as a member of an ethnic minority shows that you are not surprised if a member of the ethnic majority does so
If groups of men of a certain background appear to be involved in organized criminal behaviour in a particular area, it is not racist to say so, any more than it would be racist to suggest that the leaders of the Mafia are largely Italian-Americans."
No but what is unacceptable is to draw any inferences about Italian-Americans. As a member of an ethnic minority MikeK should be more aware than most of the damage that can be wrought by creating stereotypes. There are plenty of propaganda films which make the point perfectly which I would post if I didn't think there was such a willing audience.0 -
I think it's best for Lord A to doublecheck all his constituency polls just in case.isam said:Lets hope Lord A's Scottish constituency polls aren't riddled with rickets eh?
He found some errors that changed the result just a few percentage points here and there, but he has published many constituency polls that have shown a close result, a correction might change the party in lead and there are many such seats:
Seats like Dudley North, Great Grimsby , Southampton Itchen, Plymouth Moor View, Coatbridge, Glasgow NE, Glasgow NW, Glasgow SW and Rother Valley for Labour .(9 in total)
Birmingham Yardley, Portsmouth South, North Devon, Hazel Grove, Chelthennham, Brecon&Radnorshire, Bermondsey&Old Southwark (SIMON HUGHES), Torbay, Taunton Dean, St. Ives, St. Austell, North Cornwall, Mid Dorset, Cheadle and Cambridge for the LD's.(15 in total)
Amber Valley, Great Yarmouth, Morecambe, Thurrock, Stockton South, Cannock Chase, Camborne, Watford, Thanet North, Gloucester, Halesowen, Hove, Ipswich, Nuneaton, Pudsey, Blackpool North, Chester, Croydon, Keighley, Kingswood, Loughborough, Northampton North, Wirral West, Worcester, ROCHESTER, Wyre Forest, Ealing, Elmet, Harrow East, Pendle, Swindon South, Stevenage and Warwick for the Tories. (33 in total)0 -
No of course not. What is particularly wrong is the cover-up by those in power, either to protect their mates or for reasons of political correctness. I agreed that those in power should be investigated, I know it goes on. You are guilty of what you accuse me of: ignoring a particular source of organized child abuse because it suits your political agenda.Smarmeron said:@JohnLilburne
Is it worse to be raped by a Pakistani taxi driver than your local MP?
You only wish to see what you want, and as such, you are an enabler.
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The only reason Tories are favourites in Rochester is a Lord Ashcroft poll...Speedy said:
I think it's best for Lord A to doublecheck all his constituency polls just in case.isam said:Lets hope Lord A's Scottish constituency polls aren't riddled with rickets eh?
He found some errors that changed the result just a few percentage points here and there, but he has published many constituency polls that have shown a close result, a correction might change the party in lead and there are many such seats:
Seats like Dudley North, Great Grimsby , Southampton Itchen, Plymouth Moor View and Rother Valley for Labour.
Birmingham Yardley, Portsmouth South, North Devon, Hazel Grove, Chelthennham, Brecon&Radnorshire, Bermondsey&Old Southwark (SIMON HUGHES), Torbay, Taunton Dean, St. Ives, St. Austell, North Cornwall, Mid Dorset, Cheadle and Cambridge for the LD's.
Amber Valley, Great Yarmouth, Morecambe, Thurrock, Stockton South, Cannock Chase, Camborne, Watford, Thanet North, Gloucester, Halesowen, Hove, Ipswich, Nuneaton, Pudsey, Blackpool North, Chester, Croydon, Keighley, Kingswood, Loughborough, Northampton North, Wirral West, Worcester, ROCHESTER, Wyre Forest, Ealing, Elmet, Harrow East, Pendle, Swindon South, Stevenage and Warwick for the Tories.
The perils of following polls rather than doing your own homework0 -
Most councils have got round this by closing all their public conveniences. And those in Railway stations and Supermarkets are festooned with cameras (other than in the actual bogs)Smarmeron said:@OldKingCole
One can only hope that justice will not be blinded again, but I am far from optimistic.
e.g. (from the earlier article)
"For example, police now invest relatively little time in the surveillance of public toilets where gay men go cottaging. The one thing that is likely still to trigger such an operation is a complaint that under-aged boys are involved – unless, that is, the toilets in question happen to be those behind the Royal Courts of Justice in the Strand, in which case, under the terms of a long-standing Metropolitan Police policy, the operation will take place only if it has the approval of an officer of the rank of commander or above. According to experienced London officers, the reason is that those toilets are used by High Court judges and barristers, and the Metropolitan Police have always said they do not want to encounter such a powerful offender without special authority."
As for the Royal Courts PCs. The PCs are Clearly too PC to investigate the PCs and prefer to sit in the station on their PCs.
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