The end of the Keir show – politicalbetting.com
The end of the Keir show – politicalbetting.com
If Starmer goes in 2026 (and there’s no certainty of that) I would expect him to go/be ousted in the aftermath of the devolved and location elections which take place in May which would be the trigger point and given how long the Labour leadership election would take I think the value might be in the latter two quarters of 2026 depending on how much Starmer tries to hang on.
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1) They come for him after an "is that it" budget on Wednesday
2) McSweeney goes in a few weeks - trying to draw the sting from the fallout
3) Reeves goes in January - that buys Keith more time to hang on and try and formulate his excuses for May
4) Big badda boom in May - the vultures start to openly circle
5) Starmer announces he will go / someone challenges him - unless Labour greatly simplify its processes then yes I think it tips over into Q3
Whichever quarter it is, he is toast. That whoops I had the toaster on too high toast where it burns your fingers as you scrape the excess carbon off into the sink toast.
Tears for Keir’s it is.
I doubt a new leader would want to go in to bat before May.
In a ruling published on November 12, the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) rejected an appeal by The Times to force the Cabinet Office to disclose how many ministers had declared a prior criminal conviction before taking office. Officials refused to confirm or deny whether it recorded this information, and the transparency regulator ruled that ministers’ right to privacy trumped the public’s right to know.
The decision, which The Times intends to appeal against, comes after Louise Haigh’s failure to declare a fraud conviction led to her resignation as transport secretary last year.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/ministers-criminal-records-can-stay-secret-rules-watchdog-xkvld6bnn
If this Budget sinks with the markets, Reeves' departure won't be enough to placate Mr. Market.
Members of Tribune are at each other’s throats after the caucus launched a WhatsApp group that excluded some members
Left-wing Labour MPs have turned on one another over briefings that a relaunch of the Tribune caucus could pave the way to challenging Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
Clive Efford, who helped to re-establish the group in 2017 but handed over the reins this month, said “someone is taking for granted that they can dictate to the group”.
It followed a story in The Times that said senior members of the newly refreshed group privately claimed to have 80 MPs willing to launch a leadership challenge to Starmer.
A split also emerged between newer and longer-serving MPs in Tribune, and concerns were raised about the group no longer being “a safe place for debate” and having an “age bar”.
The private remarks, made in WhatsApp group exchanges leaked to The Times, suggest a nervousness among those on the soft left of the party about overt moves to dislodge Starmer.
Louise Haigh, who took over leadership of Tribune this month, sought to reassure members that the briefing was “pure fiction” and that a meeting held on Tuesday was “solely focused on the budget”, instead of Starmer’s future.
“I’d hope that no one would think any of their colleagues would be daft enough to brief out something so stupid,” she wrote.
Efford also said he believed the claims were “tittle tattle”, but sought to warn other MPs against over-zealous briefings.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/left-wing-labour-mps-keir-starmer-leadership-9d8jpzcsv
It takes a while for the process to complete.
But can the Labour party find someone to Change to?
For 2026, however, I am less confident. I do suspect the bet on Starmer lasting the year is a more solid one than on Badenoch? Yet BFE has Starmer the more likely to go.
What keeps him in place is the lack of an alternative.
Meanwhile, is there a possibility that dumping Major Morgan (the utter organ) strengthens the government, rather than weakening it?
"Where there is no [leadership] vacancy, nominations may be sought by potential challengers. In this case any nomination must be supported by 20 per cent of the Commons members of the PLP. Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void. The sitting Leader or Deputy Leader shall not be required to seek nominations in the event of a challenge under this rule."
Tesla billionaire left White House in April after explosive fallout with Donald Trump and unit has now been disbanded
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/24/elon-musk-doge-no-longer-exists-contract-ended-early-usa/ (£££)
Good morning, everybody.
f-ing nuts.
Whether he says that in private is another matter.
General Election now, and here's the winner. He has some super new plans for the NHS that I think all his voters are going to love.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DO9Sd1MDR1H/?igsh=azFwZWdhcHp1Z2xz
This millennium:-
IDS 2 years
Michael Howard 2 years
Call Me Dave 11 years
Theresa May 3 years
Boris 3 years
Liz Truss 7 weeks
Rishi 2 years
Or hypnoboobs and voters in Waveney Valley.
If the Greens want to become a mainstream party of the left, they need to avoid being tied to such baggage that turns off the vast majority in the country.
Your Party is thankfully DOA.
This guy is getting away with blue murder and very few are calling him out. I am particularly disappointed with the Conservatives, they seem to look upon this outrageous clown as a friend and ally on the basis of my enemy's enemy is my friend.
Cameron only just didn't lose in 2010, and if he had lost, the number against his name would probably have been 5 years.
Polanski has rather blown that up, in yet another tick in the "members shouldn't pick the leader" column.
I might need to have a look at my book on her.
That doesn't make it wrong, and idealistic communism never happens as an alternative. But it's always the effect.
Sorry to be so ignorant.
Immigration will stop being the big thing and the one trick ponies like Farage will tie themselves in knots or courts. Meanwhile zack is likely to do well on the left and Kemi or an alternative will start rebuilding on a more centrist platform and life will go on.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/meta-buried-causal-evidence-social-media-harm-us-court-filings-allege-2025-11-23/
PB is safe though – just ask Nick Clegg.
But the median age in those countries is higher than the UK. And health outcomes can be debated, but we're certainly not an obvious leader of the pack.
I think both sides could do with accepting that the NHS isn't as amazing or awful as some imagine.
The US system, by contrast, is objectively awful. Extremely high cost and worse outcomes at an aggregate level.
I imagine there's lots we could learn from where some European nations deliver better value for money than us.
Reform, now that they have a chance of being elected, have shifted to the social democrat centre + mostly closed borders + nationalism. No-one has any chance at all of being elected without retaining the post WWII social democratic deal. Everyone tinkers with it; no-one has yet thought of an electable way of shifting it.
Also, the relevant figure is actual spend per capita, not %age of GDP. See https://www.health.org.uk/features-and-opinion/features/how-much-does-the-uk-spend-on-health-care-compared-to-europe Germany is spending over half as much again as we do. France is a quarter as much. If you want German or French health outcomes, spend more.
And build from there.
Despite the intricacies of the Labour leadership, the truth is not dissimilar to that which has confronted Conservatives over the last 40-50 years. If there is someone else who is clearly more popular than your leader and you want to win an election, replace your current leader with the popular one.
It may be the popular one will rapidly become as unpopular as his/her predecessor but that's the gamble and it doesn't always pay off but if it gets you an election win and another five years in office it's worth it.
IF we see some hypothetical polling showing Streeting doing 5/10 points better than Starmer for example, that might be the trigger for backbench Labour MPs looking over their shoulders at Reform to make the move.
Barely 18 months into a five year term, it seems absurd to be talking about replacing a Prime Minister - there were plenty of mutterings about Thatcher in the dark days of 1980-81 and it didn't seem inconceivable the Conservatives under her leadership might finish third in an election so we've been here before - there's plenty of time for Labour to recover much though many on here would rather write the obituary and bury the corpse here and now.
GDP per cap 2025 IMF Est (US $) / (PPP)
Germany 59,993 / ($73,553)
United Kingdom 56,661 ($63,759)
France 49,961 ($66,061)
Implied health spend per cap / adjusted for PPP
Germany: $7000 / $8600
UK: $6300 / $7100
France: $5700 / $7300
'You know, I thought they were getting bigger'
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/jJEjirTMOD0
One-minute clip of Zack (and the interviewer) doing human.
In London and the big metropolitan councils up Labour should hold on as top party despite some losses to the Greens. In Wales Labour are still likely to be in power with Plaid after the election even if no longer first. Most of provincial rural and market town England where Labour is weakest doesn't have elections next year either
The UK is not the USA. Reform is dangerous but it is neither Trump nor MAGA.
Nice title.
P.S. And I apologise, it would appear Reform voters, presumably the poster is a Reform voter, do know what they are letting themselves in for. As an aside, are you comfortable with all the pro Russian s***?
However, unless I've missed it, the huge myriad of fatal missteps hasn't actually happened yet. It remains possible that Rachel surprises on the upside - not in the eyes of PBers, most of whom she has already lost, but in the eyes of those who would consider voting Labour at some point in the future. I wouldn't write off Rachel or Keir just yet. Though I may have a different view by Thursday.
entry for minor spent offences.
I don't see why voters
necessary need to know about spent convictions their MPs have either although political parties will do DBS checks on their selected candidates and most require disclosure of even spent convictions as does the senior civil service
Given the rabble of malcontents 300 Reform MPs would be I cannot see that happening.
The bigger threat to the NHS would be a financial crisis and crashed economy.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/the-green-party-membership-surge-does-it-actually-matter-78682.html
I’m not a Reform supporter no. But neither am religiously devoted to an outdated healthcare system which is quite happily on its way to bankrupting the country nor instantly dismissive of private involvement in providing healthcare. Because “evil private” or somesuch bigoted nonsense. And Russia can go forth and multiply.
On that score, he's had a fairly free ride for his decade long public dabbling in far right conspiracy theory.
Farage urged to explain conspiracy theories linked to antisemitism he voiced in US media
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/24/farage-urged-to-explain-conspiracy-theories-linked-to-antisemitism-he-voiced-in-us-media
Nigel Farage is facing calls to explain why he repeatedly aired tropes and conspiracy theories associated with antisemitism during interviews, after claims the Reform UK leader used racist language in his teens.
In appearances on US TV shows and podcasts earlier in his political career, Farage discussed supposed plots by bankers to create a global government, citing Goldman Sachs, the Bilderberg group and the financier George Soros as threats to democracy.
These included six guest slots on the web TV show of the disgraced far-right US conspiracy theorist Alex Jones. Jones was successfully sued by bereaved parents after claiming the 2012 Sandy Hook elementary school massacre was faked.
During one interview with Jones in 2018, Farage argued that “globalists” were trying to engineer a war with Russia “as an argument for us all to surrender our national sovereignty and give it up to a higher global level”.
Farage also appeared six times on the web radio show of Rick Wiles, a far-right, antisemitic American pastor. Here, topics included whether central bankers would soon start to appoint leaders of the UK and US – an idea Farage did not challenge...
Not that Farage is going to get a 200 majority.
Are we really saying our politicians should be held to lesser standards than... lawyers and bankers ?
Has anyone spotted equivalent leftish accounts who also turn out to be located in Eastern Europe / the Russian Federation? Russia is notorious for playing both sides of cultural conflicts in the countries they target.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cz94pz4eqy1o
It is understood that none of the England players from the first-Test XI asked to play in Canberra.