The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
Oh no not another trip to Washington for European leaders .
Enough with this nauseating begging .
The alternative is Ukrainian defeat. If the last voice Trump heard was a Russian one, he's anti-Ukraine, so a trip to the Oval Office Gin Palace it is.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
It would be quite evasive to call for an investigation into the influence of Russian money on UK politics whilst politely ignoring the vast hoovering of money from other states. China and India being two that spring to mind immediately, but also Israel, the Saudis, the Qataris, and many more. US money is also a big issue, though I think it's more private sector - corporations and billionaire 'philanthropists'.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
It would be quite evasive to call for an investigation into the influence of Russian money on UK politics whilst politely ignoring the vast hoovering of money from other states. China and India being two that spring to mind immediately, but also Israel, the Saudis, the Qataris, and many more. US money is also a big issue, though I think it's more private sector - corporations and billionaire 'philanthropists'.
Would you actually oppose an investigation into Russian money and its influence on UK politics?
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
It would be quite evasive to call for an investigation into the influence of Russian money on UK politics whilst politely ignoring the vast hoovering of money from other states. China and India being two that spring to mind immediately, but also Israel, the Saudis, the Qataris, and many more. US money is also a big issue, though I think it's more private sector - corporations and billionaire 'philanthropists'.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are there? I don’t know, but apart from the interview where Farage called Putin a great operator, or something like that, I can’t remember seeing many.
Anyway, the offence is taking bribes, not refusing to toe the line on why the conflict started
Not that I’m defending Gill, but it’s amazing what a difference context makes. Didn’t the Tories take large amounts of Russian money within living memory? Also the Labour Party appears to have accepted ‘contributions’ from Israel one way or another.
There has never been a proper public investigation of Russian money in British politics.
Probably because there are politicians in all parties that have taken it, either legally or illegally.
We might have to rerun the EU Referendum again. That was shrouded by Russian smoke and mirrors.
I still think the biggest conflict of national interest since Profumo ( probably since the War) was a serving Foreign Secretary attending a private party thrown by a KGB grandee and later elevating his son to the House of Lords. Probably nothing to see, but surely an investigation would be prudent.
Yes. Russia is in everything. Was in Boris. Was in Gill. Question. You know how Reform are so desperate to shut down our renewables and reattach us to the teet of global gas markets? Which country is a huge gas producer? Yep. Russia…
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are there? I don’t know, but apart from the interview where Farage called Putin a great operator, or something like that, I can’t remember seeing many.
Anyway, the offence is taking bribes, not refusing to toe the line on why the conflict started
Not that I’m defending Gill, but it’s amazing what a difference context makes. Didn’t the Tories take large amounts of Russian money within living memory? Also the Labour Party appears to have accepted ‘contributions’ from Israel one way or another.
There has never been a proper public investigation of Russian money in British politics.
Probably because there are politicians in all parties that have taken it, either legally or illegally.
I’d think the Greens would be the only ones untainted.
Oh no not another trip to Washington for European leaders .
Enough with this nauseating begging .
The alternative is Ukrainian defeat. If the last voice Trump heard was a Russian one, he's anti-Ukraine, so a trip to the Oval Office Gin Palace it is.
This seems different and Trump seems determined that it’s this plan or the US walks .
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
No, I am saying he has the same sympathies with Putin.
Whether he was paid, other than by Russia Today, I don't know.
God knows, being paid by Russia Today to present is bad enough. The fact that his nauseating admiration of Putin has never really stopped is another sign. Morally there is little difference Gill and Farage.more and more questions are going to be asked about Farage and his Russian connections. How much money was he paid to work for the Russian state propaganda channel, for example.
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
This Australian team are pretty poor. But England seem to be worse. Disappointing.
I went it to this series expecting Australia to win five nil, having Pope and Crawley in your batting line up is like Devon Malcolm and Phil Tufnell in your top six.
I started following cricket in 1990 and in 45 test matches in Australia, England have only won five matches were the outcome of the Ashes were at stake, and three of those were in the space of a few weeks in late 2010/early 2011.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
This Australian team are pretty poor. But England seem to be worse. Disappointing.
I know that Test Matches can be a rollercoaster of emotions, but it’s supposed to all happen slowly over five days, not all at once in a day and a half.
I used to have some respect for him. He was a competent SoS for Health, and good as Foreign Sec, but the salting of the Earth he did as CoE rules him out. He deliberately concealed the state of the public finances by not doing a spending review etc.
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
I love Canadian elections involving the number 14.
Have I ever mentioned that I tipped Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1 earlier on this year?
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Too comfortable as leafy suburban, soft-left. Policies like wanting to fling money at WASPI types is symbolic of their preference for having political opinions acceptable at dinner parties over appealing to the Great Unwashed or trying to actually manage finances sensibly (not that they're alone in the latter). Virtuous opposition seems preferable to getting their hands dirty by returning to office.
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
I love Canadian elections involving the number 14.
Have I ever mentioned that I tipped Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1 earlier on this year?
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
It's a Nowcast not a Forecast.
Sure. More than 3 years before an election. Empires can rise and fall before then. Point is that the Tories have sunk into the abyss and the current strategy sinks you ever lower. Is it ny satisfaction that labour are driving themselves into the abyss as well?
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
It would be quite evasive to call for an investigation into the influence of Russian money on UK politics whilst politely ignoring the vast hoovering of money from other states. China and India being two that spring to mind immediately, but also Israel, the Saudis, the Qataris, and many more. US money is also a big issue, though I think it's more private sector - corporations and billionaire 'philanthropists'.
Yes, but the most pressing one is the Russian connection.
Russia is our only real military threat, still heavily influences the cost of living here via gas prices and has recently killed individuals on our soil.
I am also suspicious of the Hindutva influence on politics here, Chinese economic expansionism, Israeli and Arab agents of influence, and the US Techno-fascists, but it is the Russian threat that is the number one threat to our islands and peoples.
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
It's a Nowcast not a Forecast.
True, and whoever leaked this didn't do so in the disinterested service of public knowledge. But the Conservatives are in a hole, and their situation right now looks worse than it was in 2022-4.
The idea of a party where (let's say) Ken Clarke and Liam Fox could serve together in mutual frosty tolerance has rather gone out of fashion. And even if Farage's latest vehicle exploded this morning, not all the bits would land in the blue column. Many would, but some would stop voting altogether and someone would try to gather the pieces on the hard right.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
A cult of personality is not something the Conservatives, or any party, should ever endorse.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
It's a Nowcast not a Forecast.
Quite.
It's impossible to say where we and the Parties will be in four years time. You'd certainly be unwise to stake serious amounts on it. I can't believe the Tories will be going down to fourteen and nor is Labour likely to suffer a similar fate. Of course anything is possible and much depends on how the Parties react to their evident current unpopularity, but wild assumptions based on mid-term opinion polls don't really help anybody, whether we are talking about punters or politicos.
Personally I think just about the worst thing either Party could do right now is change the Leader. That would be true even if their current Leaders were crap, which they aren't, or there were some charismatic candidate in the wings, which there isn't.
I think this poll overestimates the Tory losses. Another poll from MiC yesterday suggested the Tories could get tactical votes to beat Labour or Reform for instance in Conservative v Labour or Conservative v Reform seats.
Yet while Kemi has got the Tories back closer to 20% with a few gains from Reform in the polls since the party conference, the party is still polling below even the 24% Rishi got at the general election. If the Conservatives see losses at the devolved and local elections in May then Kemi could face a no confidence vote from Tory MPs she loses. Tory MPs would then have a choice of electing Cleverly to try and maximise tactical votes from Labour and the LDs against Reform in Tory held seats or giving Jenrick enough nominations to go to a membership vote he might now win on a platform of trying to out Farage Farage on leaving the ECHR and scrapping net zero even more than Kemi has
I don't often agree with you but on this occasion you are correct. There's plenty of evidence even in local by-elections of pockets of continuing Conservative strength and, as you say, there will be some constituencies where voting Conservative may be seen as the lesser evil. The key remains whether the party can somehow remain the credible alternative Government - IF they fall to third or even fourth in the next Commons, that is gone and they will be one of the lesser parties.
The second point is we are, whether we like it or not, likely three and a half years off an election which is an eternity in politics. So much water has to flow under so many bridges and I'll cheerfully admit, after a shaky start, Badenoch is improving though she still has to establish whether the Conservative Party she leads is Reform-lite or a genuine centre-right alternative. That will come with time but next May will be crucial less, I suspect, of seats lost rather than seats or councils not gained from Labour and others.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
What’s with Openreach at the moment. Are they just forcing people off DSL?
Yes.
They want to retire the entire copper network
Perhaps I can dip my toe in the font of knowledge on here.
Mrs Stodge tells me people are having their electric car charging cables stolen because they (the cables, not the cars) contain copper. Is this true or an urban myth ?
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
Spot on. Badenoch has rendered the Tories a Farage tribute act
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Davey appears obsessed with establishing himself as the most anti-Trump and anti-Farage politician, but what would he actually want to *do* with political power?
Daily Mail owner in talks to buy Telegraph titles for £500m
DMGT has confirmed a Sky News report that it has entered exclusive negotiations to buy the Daily and Sunday Telegraph newspapers and end the protracted hiatus over their ownership.
What’s with Openreach at the moment. Are they just forcing people off DSL?
Yes.
They want to retire the entire copper network
Perhaps I can dip my toe in the font of knowledge on here.
Mrs Stodge tells me people are having their electric car charging cables stolen because they (the cables, not the cars) contain copper. Is this true or an urban myth ?
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
No the Canadian Tories only won two seats in 1993. They then continued as a separate party for a decade and made a few gains before being taken over by the successor to the Canadian Reform party, the Canadian Alliance in 2003 to form today's Conservative party of Canada. Though a few Canadian Tories defected to the Liberals.
If the UK Tories got just 14 MPs a similar scenario would take place here, only PR could keep the Tories as a separate party long term and not see it taken over by Farage's Reform
It should be easy to make money betting on England, as at some point in every match they are 4/1 on and 4/1 against
It is probably a bit late to mention this but I knew someone whose cricket-betting mantra was always to back the side that gets skittled on day one, because the chances are it was the pitch and not the bowlers who mattered.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Davey appears obsessed with establishing himself as the most anti-Trump and anti-Farage politician, but what would he actually want to *do* with political power?
He’s scared of getting power, because he’d actually have to make decisions. Much better to be in permanent opposition, yelling at the moon on Twitter all day while still collecting a decent salary.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
The question is less the "who" than the "what". Did Boris achieve election success because of what he was peddling or because he was Boris? Let's face it - the man was a political operator who spent 20 years or more manoeuvring his way to Number 10 only to find, when he got there, he was undone by a microscopic virus.
The brand of conservatism Boris was selling (quite hard to define in my view and probably unsustainable - one minute it was "Thatcherism on steroids", the next it was throwing money at the North in the style of a tax and spend social democrat) might have proved enduring absent Covid-19 and I well remember there were plenty on here speculating Labour were out of the game until 2029 or even later.
It should be easy to make money betting on England, as at some point in every match they are 4/1 on and 4/1 against
It is probably a bit late to mention this but I knew someone whose cricket-betting mantra was always to back the side that gets skittled on day one, because the chances are it was the pitch and not the bowlers who mattered.
What happens when both sides get skittled on Day 1?
Daily Mail owner in talks to buy Telegraph titles for £500m
DMGT has confirmed a Sky News report that it has entered exclusive negotiations to buy the Daily and Sunday Telegraph newspapers and end the protracted hiatus over their ownership.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
No, I am saying he has the same sympathies with Putin.
Whether he was paid, other than by Russia Today, I don't know.
God knows, being paid by Russia Today to present is bad enough. The fact that his nauseating admiration of Putin has never really stopped is another sign. Morally there is little difference Gill and Farage.more and more questions are going to be asked about Farage and his Russian connections. How much money was he paid to work for the Russian state propaganda channel, for example.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
andExcep
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
The question is less the "who" than the "what". Did Boris achieve election success because of what he was peddling or because he was Boris? Let's face it - the man was a political operator who spent 20 years or more manoeuvring his way to Number 10 only to find, when he got there, he was undone by a microscopic virus.
The brand of conservatism Boris was selling (quite hard to define in my view and probably unsustainable - one minute it was "Thatcherism on steroids", the next it was throwing money at the North in the style of a tax and spend social democrat) might have proved enduring absent Covid-19 and I well remember there were plenty on here speculating Labour were out of the game until 2029 or even later.
Politics - "a rough trade" as someone once said.
Except Bozo wasn't chucked out for Covid, He appointed a known (to him) sex offender as Chief Whip and then denied he knew the fact.
Partygate and covid is why he resigned as an MP not as PM.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Davey appears obsessed with establishing himself as the most anti-Trump and anti-Farage politician, but what would he actually want to *do* with political power?
He’s scared of getting power, because he’d actually have to make decisions. Much better to be in permanent opposition, yelling at the moon on Twitter all day while still collecting a decent salary.
Well, you can argue the same is true of Badenoch, Farage and all the other parties if you want to play that game.
Given we have such a crowded and unpredictable field of runners, trying to find the winner of the 2029 General Election Handicap open to three year olds of all ages, is as chewy as any low-grade handicap at Meydan before or even during the Carnival.
Anyone can more or less promise anything at this stage though given the elephantine memory of social media, it would be unwise to offer too many hostages to fortune at this time.
18 months after the Boris landslide, were any of us predicting the Tories being reduced to 120 seats?
I was on record predicting that Johnson would increase the Tory majority at the next election.
But, then, things happened and that changed.
At the moment the Tories are heading towards a wipeout. Now things will definitely happen between now and the next election, but whether those things will make a Tory wipeout more or less likely - who can tell?
I don't see any evidence that the Tory party itself is capable of improving its chances, and Farage appears almost Trumpian in his ability to brush off criticism, so I see no reason to expect a Tory recovery.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are there? I don’t know, but apart from the interview where Farage called Putin a great operator, or something like that, I can’t remember seeing many.
Anyway, the offence is taking bribes, not refusing to toe the line on why the conflict started
Not that I’m defending Gill, but it’s amazing what a difference context makes. Didn’t the Tories take large amounts of Russian money within living memory? Also the Labour Party appears to have accepted ‘contributions’ from Israel one way or another.
There has never been a proper public investigation of Russian money in British politics.
Probably because there are politicians in all parties that have taken it, either legally or illegally.
We might have to rerun the EU Referendum again. That was shrouded by Russian smoke and mirrors.
I still think the biggest conflict of national interest since Profumo ( probably since the War) was a serving Foreign Secretary attending a private party thrown by a KGB grandee and later elevating his son to the House of Lords. Probably nothing to see, but surely an investigation would be prudent.
The clue is in the name, surely, and in his hiring a chief of staff whose cv had a multi-year Russian gap.
But what about the chap who the KGB tapped up, who committed the most divisive and ruinous act in British politics that coincidentally Russia had been urging, and whose number two partied with Russian oligarchs while flatlining the British economy?
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
I am old enough to rember when the Home Counties were solid blue.
Then Brexit and related culture wars shed that Tory core vote.
Apart from pensioners there is no longer a Tory core vote, and between 2024 and 2029 a million of the Tory vote will have gone to meet their maker.
Its a real problem for the party to find a way back. I think the most realistic one is to go with an old school business friendly, aspirational policy aimed at families. Leave the culture war stuff low key, and concentrate on pocketbook domestic concerns and matters of individual freedom to choose schools, hospitals, and lifestyle. It isn't possible to out-Farage Farage and Mahmood's migration policy is a shift much further right than the last government, so a very crowded field there.
That should keep a reasonable rump of Tory seats, and play the longer game as Faragism falls apart due to its own internal contradictions. The Tories would be in a strong position to be the party of government at the following GE and I don't think a Farage government would last any where near a term. Farage is no Meloni.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
No, I am saying he has the same sympathies with Putin.
Whether he was paid, other than by Russia Today, I don't know.
God knows, being paid by Russia Today to present is bad enough. The fact that his nauseating admiration of Putin has never really stopped is another sign. Morally there is little difference Gill and Farage.more and more questions are going to be asked about Farage and his Russian connections. How much money was he paid to work for the Russian state propaganda channel, for example.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. InLabour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
I think that you are mistaken regarding Labour, as they currently form the government and a recent poll suggested that more people would vote against them than against Reform. They hold the vast majority of seats and where there is no credible 3rd party alternative such as the LDs, their seats are likely to fall to Reform at the next GE.
What’s with Openreach at the moment. Are they just forcing people off DSL?
Yes.
They want to retire the entire copper network
Perhaps I can dip my toe in the font of knowledge on here.
Mrs Stodge tells me people are having their electric car charging cables stolen because they (the cables, not the cars) contain copper. Is this true or an urban myth ?
It's a thing, but mainly public stations it seems. Maybe topical because of this 'report'. However, 200+ incidents of damage and vandalism in 60% of the UK spread over several years, and not all will be cable thefts ...
PS In the best tradition of indignant men with sheepskin jackets and backless gloves, one comment demands deliberate radioisotope contamination of charging cables. New one to me!
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
Maybe the silver lining is enabling them to cope with their internal divisions and party management issues?
I am content with Badenoch and the Conservatives polling has stabilised
A poll this week had labour on 12 seats and frankly it is too far from the next election to put any credence on either the 14 or labour's 12
With all due respect to your views, you’re the core vote for the Conservatives in that you have grown with them through all their changes. It’s the younger cohort they’re failing to attract and without the replacement for core supporters their demise will follow.
My particular beef is with Kemi’s character as she exhibits the arrogance of someone who hasn’t realised her limitations. Probably too early into that position. She doesn’t have the self awareness to realise the damage she’s doing to the Conservative cause but the politics is all relative
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Daily Mail owner in talks to buy Telegraph titles for £500m
DMGT has confirmed a Sky News report that it has entered exclusive negotiations to buy the Daily and Sunday Telegraph newspapers and end the protracted hiatus over their ownership.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
I wonder how the bribes compare to his actual salary.
As I refuse to knowingly give my details to Russia I haven’t been able to read the Reformgraph article.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It is a poll conducted by a sister company of a pollster the Tories regularly used.
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
Brutal. 14 seats. The Canada scenario.
It's a Nowcast not a Forecast.
Quite.
It's impossible to say where we and the Parties will be in four years time. You'd certainly be unwise to stake serious amounts on it. I can't believe the Tories will be going down to fourteen and nor is Labour likely to suffer a similar fate. Of course anything is possible and much depends on how the Parties react to their evident current unpopularity, but wild assumptions based on mid-term opinion polls don't really help anybody, whether we are talking about punters or politicos.
Personally I think just about the worst thing either Party could do right now is change the Leader. That would be true even if their current Leaders were crap, which they aren't, or there were some charismatic candidate in the wings, which there isn't.
These polls with headlines showing parties we are used to seeing in government on 12 or 14 seats are like the covid era warnings of ‘x amount of deaths if we don’t lockdown’, they presume parties/people won’t change their behaviour when they find themselves in different circumstances, or that politics won’t ebb and flow.
I haven’t looked at the poll, but I assume if it were to be taken literally, Reform to win a majority at current odds of 3/1 would be free money… so why is it 3/1?
Daily Mail owner in talks to buy Telegraph titles for £500m
DMGT has confirmed a Sky News report that it has entered exclusive negotiations to buy the Daily and Sunday Telegraph newspapers and end the protracted hiatus over their ownership.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Davey appears obsessed with establishing himself as the most anti-Trump and anti-Farage politician, but what would he actually want to *do* with political power?
He’s scared of getting power, because he’d actually have to make decisions. Much better to be in permanent opposition, yelling at the moon on Twitter all day while still collecting a decent salary.
No, I don't think so.
Davey was one of the best performing ministers in the Coalition government*, and was very successful atimplementing pension reform and the shift to renewable energy.
* I said in 2015 that the Coalition will be looked back on as a golden period of good government. That is increasingly obviously coming true.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Johnson removed Johnson and you are in denial of that fact
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
I think this poll overestimates the Tory losses. Another poll from MiC yesterday suggested the Tories could get tactical votes to beat Labour or Reform for instance in Conservative v Labour or Conservative v Reform seats.
Yet while Kemi has got the Tories back closer to 20% with a few gains from Reform in the polls since the party conference, the party is still polling below even the 24% Rishi got at the general election. If the Conservatives see losses at the devolved and local elections in May then Kemi could face a no confidence vote from Tory MPs she loses. Tory MPs would then have a choice of electing Cleverly to try and maximise tactical votes from Labour and the LDs against Reform in Tory held seats or giving Jenrick enough nominations to go to a membership vote he might now win on a platform of trying to out Farage Farage on leaving the ECHR and scrapping net zero even more than Kemi has
I don't often agree with you but on this occasion you are correct. There's plenty of evidence even in local by-elections of pockets of continuing Conservative strength and, as you say, there will be some constituencies where voting Conservative may be seen as the lesser evil. The key remains whether the party can somehow remain the credible alternative Government - IF they fall to third or even fourth in the next Commons, that is gone and they will be one of the lesser parties.
The second point is we are, whether we like it or not, likely three and a half years off an election which is an eternity in politics. So much water has to flow under so many bridges and I'll cheerfully admit, after a shaky start, Badenoch is improving though she still has to establish whether the Conservative Party she leads is Reform-lite or a genuine centre-right alternative. That will come with time but next May will be crucial less, I suspect, of seats lost rather than seats or councils not gained from Labour and others.
The rank order of the vote shares and the distribution of those votes both matter more than the absolute percentage. That's what HY is missing - the reason the Tories face catastrophic losses is that in 2024, despte the challenge from Reform, they held on to their clear second place. They lost out to the LibDems because - in an unusual reversal of the historic pattern, due to both the fallout from Brexit and tactical voting, the LibDems' vote share was more geographically concentrated than the Tories'.
In current polls the Tories are in the pack, with Reform out front, Labour very close, and both LibDems and Greens, varying by poll, snapping close behind. If the Tories can pull into a clear second place, they would be positioned to save more seats (and make some gains from Labour), but they would still be hampered by the geographical correlation between Tory and Reform vote share and Reform's current clear water lead. If they fall into third or fourth place, the modelled wipeout is quite likely.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Ben Stokes has hit back at the former England captains Ian Botham, Graham Gooch and Michael Vaughan after they criticised his team’s Ashes preparations, calling them “has-beens” and insisting that “the landscape of cricket has changed”.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Johnson removed Johnson and you are in denial of that fact
Johnson renowned for inserting Johnson, not so hot on the removal bit.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
Davey appears obsessed with establishing himself as the most anti-Trump and anti-Farage politician, but what would he actually want to *do* with political power?
Ed Davey tried to get into the jungle (that is to say, onto I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here) following in the footsteps of such political luminaries as Nadine Dorries and Nigel Farage, but ITV turned him down.
Since this comes when the LibDems are Britain's third party, with 72 MPs, it lends weight to the charge that Davey is, in today's argot, an unserious man. Now is the time for policy but Davey is still chasing headlines.
This interview with Sir Keir is the least watchable it is possible to imagine. He really does make the MayBot look charismatic.
Days ahead of last year's Budget, the PM, while refusing to comment on Budget detail, did at least commit to manifesto promises in an i/v at the Commonwealth summit in Samoa. Roll onto 2025 and the G20 summit, and the PM will NOT recommit to his manifesto ahead of Wed's Budget
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
It was a six figure value motorhome mind.
Tbf Angela's motorhome looks a bit more budget. Of course it was the static home that did for her.
I don't think the Tories gain anything from another leadership contest.
Badenoch has been performing slightly better of late and there are tentative signs of the party positioning itself in a slightly more promising way than simply "Reform-lite." Their polling floor looks to have been reached (for now!) and Reform's appears to have plateau'd - the shift of voters from one to the other looks to -either temporarily or not- been arrested.
If Labour have a grim budget and the economy remains stagnant (or worse), the Tory party is best placed to move into a space to offer genuine economic reforms and renewal. They could do worse than sticking with Badenoch for at least another 12-18 months to see how that plays out. Further blood-letting and warfare risks them being seen as (even more) fundamentally unserious. If Starmer does go in the next year, then the Tories are better sitting on their hands and letting that play out as well.
The above is an optimistic take, true, and the Tories are still some distance from a party that is serious about winning back power any time soon. But I'd be sticking with Kemi right now and developing their economic message.
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
It was a six figure value motorhome mind.
The most inexplicable bit was that the motorhome never budged from the driveway.
Or perhaps that is fairly typical. Many yachts are rarely used too. Its the idea that appeals rather than the reality.
Oh no not another trip to Washington for European leaders .
Enough with this nauseating begging .
The alternative is Ukrainian defeat. If the last voice Trump heard was a Russian one, he's anti-Ukraine, so a trip to the Oval Office Gin Palace it is.
This seems different and Trump seems determined that it’s this plan or the US walks .
The Europeans including Starmer should have been well aware this was a likely outcome, certainly since the "suit" incident in the Oval Office.
Were the Saudi Royal Family all wearing suits in the Oval Office?
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PM
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. InLabour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
I think that you are mistaken regarding Labour, as they currently form the government and a recent poll suggested that more people would vote against them than against Reform. They hold the vast majority of seats and where there is no credible 3rd party alternative such as the LDs, their seats are likely to fall to Reform at the next GE.
That depends. A lot of people are pissed off right now, and many of them seem willing to give the Farage snake oil at least a first swig. Unlike Americans, I don't believe Brits would be foolish enough to elect him twice, but there are clearly a lot of people currently ready to elect him once.
Whether that comes to pass depends on whether Farage can keep his show on the road for another four years without the bubble bursting or his outfit coming off the rails, and whether people are still quite so pissed off come 2028/9. History suggests that a good chunk of voters are pissed off midterm but willing to cut the government some slack when election time comes and it is measured up against the alternative(s) on offer.
The problem for the Tories is that apart from their own diehards -14 seats worth-they have no allies. Faced with Farage or Badenoch civilised folk might as well go to the pub.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
The dog that continues not to bark is the LDs. In 100 seats they are safely either first or contending to win, in the rest SFAICS no movement that matters. The only centrists who have not trashed their reputation, they could and should be the obvious refuge but they are not. In a sense this is more mysterious than why the Tories look as if they may go out of business, and I can't see a non-circular explanation.
The LDs are now the party of posh home counties Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
You are right, it is, but remember the vast majority of the voters in these constituencies aren't posh. Guildford, Woking, Camberley, etc town centres aren't posh and these are the areas they pile up the majority of votes. Even posh villages, like I live in, still have a council housing, flats above shops etc and these villages still vote primarily Tory. We analyse the boxes when they are opened. The villages all around me voted Tory. Our village was neck and neck, but Guildford town was LD and by far the biggest block of votes.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
The leaked poll and the comments around it are looking in the wrong place. This has almost nothing to do with an individual leadership but to do with two key strategic positions:
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit) Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The market is for a "What works" conservatism. They need to reject the period at least from 2015 to 2024, when things obviously weren't working, or least make people forget about it.
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
They had one, Boris
Had being the operative word.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Had Boris not been removed in 2022, Reform would not now be ahead in the polls and a now Sunak led Tories would likely now have a big poll lead over the Starmer Labour government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
Bozo would have been out in 2023 when the partygate scandal forced him to leave Parliament to avoid a recall petition.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
Nope had Boris stayed PM he would not have resigned his seat and of course the Tories won the Uxbridge by election anyway so Truss would never have become Tory leader and PN
Some front for Nathan Gill to have tweeted this knowing what he was doing. Lefties do seem to be implying all of his party members are equally crooked though
Ex-MP Jared O'Mara charged with seven counts of fraud, you have to delve deep to find out what party he belonged to. Could you imagine if he had been UKIP, it would have been front page news implying all party members are equally crooked. Oh BBC 🙄
They’re desperate for some shit to stick to Farage. It’s politics. All part of the game.
Theres loads of Pro-Putin remarks by Farage on the record.
Gill and Farage are birds of a feather.
Are you seriously claiming Farage is on the same level as the convicted Nathan Gill ?
I can't remember who it was, probably not Farage, but someone from UKIP/ Brexit was making remarkably similar pro- Russian, anti- Ukraine speeches contemporaneously to those made by Gill in the European Parliament. Uncanny!
If only I could remember who that was.
As long as they did it without taking money, or making sure they lost the receipts, they will be fine, I'm sure. Certainly from a criminal point of view.
"Saying similar things to Gill without even being paid for it" probably shouldn't be a political defence, but that depends on how teflon any such figure is, if they even exist.
Nathan Gill appeared to be incredibly thick too. Someone more sophisticated, if they existed, would more likely than not have covered their tracks.
In terms of the war chest Russia has available to indulge in covert activity, Nathan Gill massively undersold himself.
This morning I learned that Nathan Gill is a bishop in the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
So both a Mormon and a moron.
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
And the scale of the bribes was pathetic. A ten year stretch for the bribe value of a used Fiesta.
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Yes, but thats very British of him. Sturgeon destroyed her career for a motorhome.
It was a six figure value motorhome mind.
....and according to her very readable autobiography she didn't do it
Comments
What would be the USPs for having a Tory government
and
Are alternatives available to a Tory vote.
As to USPs the problem is simple: Tory voters sympathetic to Reform will vote Reform
Tory voters unsympathetic to Reform will not vote for Toryreformlite, but for NOTA, LDs, Lab, PC, SNP.
So whoever is the leader they need to answer these:
Why are Tories better than Reform
Where do Tories credibly stand on asylum and inward migration
Explain how 14 years of Tory rule got us to where we are
Outline the next 2, 5, 10 year strategy on the big questions (economy, defence, Europe, health, spending, welfare, debt, deficit)
Can Tories display competence and statesmanship.
The bishop got bashed by the judge yesterday.
Is it *an internal* poll leaked? Did it give the numbers?
If it’s an internal poll then you can only imagine the response inside Tory towers…
It’s definitely the hope that gets you.
Labour by contrast have a cornucopia of choice. Labour.... Lib Dem ....Zacks mob....Gaza indy's.....whichever is in the best position to defeat the fascists and I have no doubt that they'll come out in force
(You have to be pretty dumb to get caught taking bribes.)
I consider it a legitimate poll (as both companies are BPC registered) and I confirm what the other pollsters have told The Telegraph.
Multiple sources within the polling industry have told The Telegraph that Stack was commissioned to carry out the work for the Conservatives, a claim denied by the company and allies of Mrs Badenoch.
It is unclear if Mrs Badenoch has seen the findings. One source at Stack insisted that she had not been shown the data.
I started following cricket in 1990 and in 45 test matches in Australia, England have only won five matches were the outcome of the Ashes were at stake, and three of those were in the space of a few weeks in late 2010/early 2011.
Have I ever mentioned that I tipped Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1 earlier on this year?
The Tories need a Disraeli I guess.
Russia is our only real military threat, still heavily influences the cost of living here via gas prices and has recently killed individuals on our soil.
I am also suspicious of the Hindutva influence on politics here, Chinese economic expansionism, Israeli and Arab agents of influence, and the US Techno-fascists, but it is the Russian threat that is the number one threat to our islands and peoples.
Wonder when the test matches are starting?
The idea of a party where (let's say) Ken Clarke and Liam Fox could serve together in mutual frosty tolerance has rather gone out of fashion. And even if Farage's latest vehicle exploded this morning, not all the bits would land in the blue column. Many would, but some would stop voting altogether and someone would try to gather the pieces on the hard right.
Remainers, the leftwingers who backed Charles Kennedy now vote Green or Labour and Leavers won't vote for them either
It's impossible to say where we and the Parties will be in four years time. You'd certainly be unwise to stake serious amounts on it. I can't believe the Tories will be going down to fourteen and nor is Labour likely to suffer a similar fate. Of course anything is possible and much depends on how the Parties react to their evident current unpopularity, but wild assumptions based on mid-term opinion polls don't really help anybody, whether we are talking about punters or politicos.
Personally I think just about the worst thing either Party could do right now is change the Leader. That would be true even if their current Leaders were crap, which they aren't, or there were some charismatic candidate in the wings, which there isn't.
The second point is we are, whether we like it or not, likely three and a half years off an election which is an eternity in politics. So much water has to flow under so many bridges and I'll cheerfully admit, after a shaky start, Badenoch is improving though she still has to establish whether the Conservative Party she leads is Reform-lite or a genuine centre-right alternative. That will come with time but next May will be crucial less, I suspect, of seats lost rather than seats or councils not gained from Labour and others.
Boris was popular once and good for a while. He got Brexit done and steered us through Covid adroitly.
But that ship has sailed. He had to go when he did. The Tories need someone new.
Mrs Stodge tells me people are having their electric car charging cables stolen because they (the cables, not the cars) contain copper. Is this true or an urban myth ?
DMGT has confirmed a Sky News report that it has entered exclusive negotiations to buy the Daily and Sunday Telegraph newspapers and end the protracted hiatus over their ownership.
https://news.sky.com/story/daily-mail-owner-in-talks-to-buy-telegraph-titles-for-500m-13473868
Reports of thefts in US, but not seen any in UK.
https://apnews.com/article/electric-vehicles-charging-cables-stolen-copper-tesla-5f003686cade63fade2e8d7dd3402f3a
If the UK Tories got just 14 MPs a similar scenario would take place here, only PR could keep the Tories as a separate party long term and not see it taken over by Farage's Reform
The brand of conservatism Boris was selling (quite hard to define in my view and probably unsustainable - one minute it was "Thatcherism on steroids", the next it was throwing money at the North in the style of a tax and spend social democrat) might have proved enduring absent Covid-19 and I well remember there were plenty on here speculating Labour were out of the game until 2029 or even later.
Politics - "a rough trade" as someone once said.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/21/farage-views-on-russia-tested-jailing-nathan-gill-reform
Partygate and covid is why he resigned as an MP not as PM.
Given we have such a crowded and unpredictable field of runners, trying to find the winner of the 2029 General Election Handicap open to three year olds of all ages, is as chewy as any low-grade handicap at Meydan before or even during the Carnival.
Anyone can more or less promise anything at this stage though given the elephantine memory of social media, it would be unwise to offer too many hostages to fortune at this time.
But, then, things happened and that changed.
At the moment the Tories are heading towards a wipeout. Now things will definitely happen between now and the next election, but whether those things will make a Tory wipeout more or less likely - who can tell?
I don't see any evidence that the Tory party itself is capable of improving its chances, and Farage appears almost Trumpian in his ability to brush off criticism, so I see no reason to expect a Tory recovery.
But what about the chap who the KGB tapped up, who committed the most divisive and ruinous act in British politics that coincidentally Russia had been urging, and whose number two partied with Russian oligarchs while flatlining the British economy?
Then Brexit and related culture wars shed that Tory core vote.
Apart from pensioners there is no longer a Tory core vote, and between 2024 and 2029 a million of the Tory vote will have gone to meet their maker.
Its a real problem for the party to find a way back. I think the most realistic one is to go with an old school business friendly, aspirational policy aimed at families. Leave the culture war stuff low key, and concentrate on pocketbook domestic concerns and matters of individual freedom to choose schools, hospitals, and lifestyle. It isn't possible to out-Farage Farage and Mahmood's migration policy is a shift much further right than the last government, so a very crowded field there.
That should keep a reasonable rump of Tory seats, and play the longer game as Faragism falls apart due to its own internal contradictions. The Tories would be in a strong position to be the party of government at the following GE and I don't think a Farage government would last any where near a term. Farage is no Meloni.
Should keep Labour and Tory spooks busy for a while
Now granted I missed the fact that Bozo would have to resign and there would then be 2 subsequent Tory PMs but my reasons then still stands
https://www.electrive.com/2025/10/17/taking-stock-of-cable-theft-in-the-uk/
PS In the best tradition of indignant men with sheepskin jackets and backless gloves, one comment demands deliberate radioisotope contamination of charging cables. New one to me!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/cb8dc1292f496bfe
My particular beef is with Kemi’s character as she exhibits the arrogance of someone who hasn’t realised her limitations. Probably too early into that position. She doesn’t have the self awareness to realise the damage she’s doing to the Conservative cause but the politics is all relative
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1991617445048791221?s=19
ahead in the polls and a now
Sunak led Tories would likely
now have a big poll lead over
the Starmer Labour
government. Rishi destroyed his political career and maybe his party too because he couldn't wait his turn and wasn't cunning enough politically to realise that Tory MPs rather than the voters who elected Boris PM removing Boris would be a gift to Farage
He probably got substantially less in cash in lieu terms than say someone going on a swinging weekend holiday to a villa in Northern Italy.
Is this a Tory-Reform metaphor?
I haven’t looked at the poll, but I assume if it were to be taken literally, Reform to win a majority at current odds of 3/1 would be free money… so why is it 3/1?
Davey was one of the best performing ministers in the Coalition government*, and was very successful atimplementing pension reform and the shift to renewable energy.
* I said in 2015 that the Coalition will be looked back on as a golden period of good government. That is increasingly obviously coming true.
His flaws were also going to come back and bite him, it was just a matter of time...
Truss in 2023 rather than 2022 would be a very interesting alternative history and one which I think would emphasis how well Rishi played his hand to retain 120 seats last July.
In current polls the Tories are in the pack, with Reform out front, Labour very close, and both LibDems and Greens, varying by poll, snapping close behind. If the Tories can pull into a clear second place, they would be positioned to save more seats (and make some gains from Labour), but they would still be hampered by the geographical correlation between Tory and Reform vote share and Reform's current clear water lead. If they fall into third or fourth place, the modelled wipeout is quite likely.
https://www.thetimes.com/sport/cricket/ashes/article/the-ashes-ben-stokes-dismisses-criticism-from-has-beens-over-preparation-hwnft7czg
Well the landscape has changed, the last time an Ashes test was decided in two days was 1921, before that in 1890.
England have never before lost in two days in Australia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/cwyl7157wlpt
Since this comes when the LibDems are Britain's third party, with 72 MPs, it lends weight to the charge that Davey is, in today's argot, an unserious man. Now is the time for policy but Davey is still chasing headlines.
Days ahead of last year's Budget, the PM, while refusing to comment on Budget detail, did at least commit to manifesto promises in an i/v at the Commonwealth summit in Samoa. Roll onto 2025 and the G20 summit, and the PM will NOT recommit to his manifesto ahead of Wed's Budget
https://x.com/bethrigby/status/1992159712943780106?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1991954130450186495?s=46&t=d8CnRhyZJ-m4vy0k55W8XQ
Badenoch has been performing slightly better of late and there are tentative signs of the party positioning itself in a slightly more promising way than simply "Reform-lite." Their polling floor looks to have been reached (for now!) and Reform's appears to have plateau'd - the shift of voters from one to the other looks to -either temporarily or not- been arrested.
If Labour have a grim budget and the economy remains stagnant (or worse), the Tory party is best placed to move into a space to offer genuine economic reforms and renewal. They could do worse than sticking with Badenoch for at least another 12-18 months to see how that plays out. Further blood-letting and warfare risks them being seen as (even more) fundamentally unserious. If Starmer does go in the next year, then the Tories are better sitting on their hands and letting that play out as well.
The above is an optimistic take, true, and the Tories are still some distance from a party that is serious about winning back power any time soon. But I'd be sticking with Kemi right now and developing their economic message.
Or perhaps that is fairly typical. Many yachts are rarely used too. Its the idea that appeals rather than the reality.
Were the Saudi Royal Family all wearing suits in the Oval Office?
would not have resigned his
seat and of course the Tories
won the Uxbridge by election
anyway so Truss would never
have become Tory leader and
PM
Whether that comes to pass depends on whether Farage can keep his show on the road for another four years without the bubble bursting or his outfit coming off the rails, and whether people are still quite so pissed off come 2028/9. History suggests that a good chunk of voters are pissed off midterm but willing to cut the government some slack when election time comes and it is measured up against the alternative(s) on offer.
https://xcancel.com/harrytlambert/status/1991829299050279247#m
https://xcancel.com/harrytlambert/status/1991829303169003611#m