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Getting squeezed like a Chippendale’s arse at a hen party – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,334
    The Labour Party has learnt from the success of its campaign of giving free publicity to Nigel Farage and is now giving free publicity to Zack Polanski.

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1985803008924438682
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,334
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    "Spanberger has focused her campaign on affordability, while Earle-Sears has run on cultural and gender issues. "

    Sums it all up.
    Only just noticed the GOP have a black woman as candidate. Shows how little attention I've been paying to it.
    There were some viral moments from the debate they had.

    https://x.com/eclipsethis2003/status/1976999793873535214
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    First numbers are out in VA.

    The interesting bit to me is that the Governorship is showing Dems +10%, but the Attorney General race is neck and neck.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    For those waiting US results, details of the Russian refineries etc being hit in the "Russian hellscape"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdY68VR2Sfc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Early data from Virginia is showing the Republicans running ahead of their 2024 performance in the majority black Brunswick County, but well down in Mannassas, which is majority Hispanic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    rcs1000 said:

    First numbers are out in VA.

    The interesting bit to me is that the Governorship is showing Dems +10%, but the Attorney General race is neck and neck.

    "Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares is seeking a second term against former State Del. Jay Jones. In recent weeks, the race has centered around resurfaced violent text messages that Jones sent in 2022. Jones has apologized for the texts, but Miyares has called them disqualifying."

    Down to candidate selection...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    Virginia Lt. Gov. race:

    "Former conservative radio host John Reid would be the nation’s first openly gay Republican elected to statewide office, while Ghazala Hashmi, a progressive state senator from the Richmond area, would be the nation’s first Muslim woman elected to statewide office. The winner would have the power to break ties in the State Senate, which could be crucial as Democrats currently have a narrow 21-19 majority in the chamber."

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    edited 12:43AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,272
    edited 12:50AM
    viewcode said:
    The Democratic candidate for Virginian governor Spanberger leads by 10% over Republican candidate Earle-Sears with 27% of votes in.

    Harris beat Trump by only 6% in Virginia last year, so first signs of a swing away from Trump and the GOP since 2024
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    Where is @DoubleCarpet ? It's not an election until he pops up
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
    NYT estimates it will end up with Spanberger on 67%, so a 13% lead. I suspect they will be broadly right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,272
    rcs1000 said:

    Early data from Virginia is showing the Republicans running ahead of their 2024 performance in the majority black Brunswick County, but well down in Mannassas, which is majority Hispanic.

    The GOP candidate is a black woman of course
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    Noo Joisey exit poll stuff:

    "The top three issues for New Jersey voters boil down to affordability, according to exit polls. Taxes, economy and health care were the top three issues voters raised in the Garden State with just 20 minutes until polls closed.

    New Jersey boasts the highest property tax rate in the country. The affordability issues driving New Jersey's gubernatorial race mirror the race for mayor in New York City, where early results from an NBC News exit poll indicated 72% of mayoral voters said the cost of housing was a major problem."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
    NYT estimates it will end up with Spanberger on 67%, so a 13% lead. I suspect they will be broadly right.
    Not everybody has a NYT account :(
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 12:56AM
    CNN PROJECTION:

    Spanberger (Dem) wins VA Governor
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    CNN projects Spannberger the winner.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
    NYT estimates it will end up with Spanberger on 67%, so a 13% lead. I suspect they will be broadly right.
    I assume that's a typo and should be 57%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Neck and neck in New Jersey, with both candidates duking it out on 0 votes each.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 1:08AM
    New Jersey:

    Dem 59/40

    11% in
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 1:09AM
    Hudson County:

    Dem running 5% ahead of last time

    John King: Dem running ahead of last time in every County he has checked

    BUT: Early vote may be more Dem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,272
    edited 1:08AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Neck and neck in New Jersey, with both candidates duking it out on 0 votes each.

    NJ Governor election now 54% for Democrat Sherrill and 45% for Republican Ciattarelli with 12% in, in 2024 NJ was Harris 51.97% and Trump 46.06%, so again a slight shift to the Democrats since last year
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,843
    viewcode said:
    The splits on the exit polls in Virginia are pretty gruesome, split R/D 55% / 45% with white voters but 22% / 75% with other ethnicities, 53% / 45% male, 37% / 61% female.
    Similar in New Jersey.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Now 63/37, 16% in

    Massive data error: 57,000 Dem votes in Burlington were missing, now added
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    edited 1:20AM
    NJ: After 21%, Dem 64.5%, Rep 35%.

    Reminder, in 2024 NJ was Harris 51.97% and Trump 46.06% - so a huge shift if maintained.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    NJ: After 21%, Dem 64.5%, Rep 35%.

    Reminder, in 2024 NJ was Harris 51.97% and Trump 46.06% - so a huge shift if maintained.

    New Jersey was the second biggest swing to the Republicans in the country.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    As an aside, US economic numbers are really horrible right now. US factory production has now shrunk eight months in a row. (With tariffs a significant contributory factor.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    rcs1000 said:

    Dopermean said:

    viewcode said:
    The splits on the exit polls in Virginia are pretty gruesome, split R/D 55% / 45% with white voters but 22% / 75% with other ethnicities, 53% / 45% male, 37% / 61% female.
    Similar in New Jersey.
    Which is why I think the Texas redistricting is potentially a disaster for the Republicans: it's based on them maintaining their 2024 gains with Hispanic voters, and if those dissipate -even only moderately- they could end up losing seats that they've drawn too close.
    Be so damn funny if Texas is a net loss for the Republicans - and flips the House...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    Is New York closing at 2am our time?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Andy_JS said:

    Is New York closing at 2am our time?

    Yes
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 1:44AM
    PA Supreme Court:

    3 Dem justices up for re-election - all being returned for new 10 year terms by overwhelming 80/20 margin.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,342
    rcs1000 said:

    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.

    Surprised the NJ race hasn't been called yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is New York closing at 2am our time?

    Yes
    Hoping for an exit poll.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    Assuming that the votes continue to come in at the same rate in each county, the Dem should win the Virginia Attorney-General race by about 38K votes, BUT this does not include counties which have yet to call any votes, so treat with a pinch of salt.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823

    rcs1000 said:

    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.

    Surprised the NJ race hasn't been called yet.
    Vote count seems to have ground to a halt.

    Dem obviously looks very good - but only issue is most of votes in are early votes which are more Dem.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521

    rcs1000 said:

    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.

    Surprised the NJ race hasn't been called yet.
    Vinny hasn't worked out which boxes to fix yet. Capisce?

    (narrator: viewcode has never been to NJ in my life. Sorry, NJ people)

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Just as I post the above, new chunk comes in:

    NJ now 57/43, 41% in

    So it is tightening.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.
  • NY Exit poll, Mamdani winning every ross section

    Gender
    Male (44%)
    46%
    37%
    13%
    Female (55%)
    47%
    40%
    10%
    I identify another way (1%)
    Not enough data
    Are you:
    White (49%)
    44%
    41%
    13%
    Black (18%)
    52%
    37%
    5%
    Hispanic/Latino (18%)
    46%
    37%
    13%
    Asian (10%)
    61%
    29%
    9%
    Other (5%)
    46%
    34%
    11%
    Race
    White (49%)
    44%
    41%
    13%
    Non-White (51%)
    51%
    35%
    10%
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    I remind you that I said Cuomo is a bad man and that he should lose. Who knows, maybe it'll set a trend.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Couldn't the anti-Mamdani forces find a better candidate than Cuomo?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Mamdani is ahead in every borough instead of Staten Island. Which only has about 160,000 votes cast. Out of a total of two million. It's hard to see Cuomo pulling it back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Couldn't the anti-Mamdani forces find a better candidate than Cuomo?
    Silwa was a better candidate than Cuomo. Unfortunately, he got squeezed out of the news cycle.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Couldn't the anti-Mamdani forces find a better candidate than Cuomo?
    Silwa was a better candidate than Cuomo. Unfortunately, he got squeezed out of the news cycle.
    It illustrates the problem. Heck, I'd've considered voting for Silwa. But Cuomo has lots of money and lots of contacts and thought he could just wander in and buy an election. So it turned an argument about policy into an argument about ethics, and Cuomo was dripping with fly-spattered excrement in that respect.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    CNN PROJECTION

    Sherrill (Dem) wins New Jersey Governor
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Just 31% remaining and Mamdami is up by 9 percentage points.

    It's over. Mamdami is Mayor of New York City.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    Just 31% remaining and Mamdami is up by 9 percentage points.

    It's over. Mamdami is Mayor of New York City.

    NBC has called it for him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,600
    rcs1000 said:

    Just 31% remaining and Mamdami is up by 9 percentage points.

    It's over. Mamdami is Mayor of New York City.

    Bookies were right and Betfair was wrong (or was right but less right). 1/10 with Betfair but 1/25 with the books. Sometimes the value is with the favourite and losers are at massive prices for a reason.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    One of my Facebook friends just posted -and I'm paraphrasing here, but only slightly- "If you voted for Mandami, please unfriend me".
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    CNN PROJECTION:

    Mamdani (Dem) wins NYC Mayor
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    One of my Facebook friends just posted -and I'm paraphrasing here, but only slightly- "If you voted for Mandami, please unfriend me".

    CoughcoughBoomercoughcough... :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    NBC just called the Virginia AG race for the Dems.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-elections/virginia-attorney-general-results#summary

    It's a clean sweep for the Dems in NY/NJ/VA tonight.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    I'm the only one still awake, aren't I?

    Pause

    Go to bed, viewcode

    (narrator: viewcode is going to bed now)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    I'm still here!

    CA polls close in one hour.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    CNN PROJECTION:

    PA Supreme Court - All 3 Dem justices re-elected to new 10 year terms.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,353
    rcs1000 said:

    One of my Facebook friends just posted -and I'm paraphrasing here, but only slightly- "If you voted for Mandami, please unfriend me".

    Only supporters of the sex predator are allowed to be my friends. Hmm.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031
    Good luck New York, looks like the communist got elected.

    I guess we’re about to find out what happens when a finance capital elects someone who doesn’t believe in wealth or crime.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,588
    Washington state polls close in about 20 minutes, Most important races: Seattle mayoralty and King County executive.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    viewcode said:

    I'm the only one still awake, aren't I?

    Pause

    Go to bed, viewcode

    (narrator: viewcode is going to bed now)

    I'm still awake, toggling between Derren Brown Seance and Traitors Australia, lol.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,588
    edited 3:43AM
    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031

    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears

    She’s quite different From the average GOP candidate.

    Looks like she’s going to fall short though, Spanberger on 56% with nearly all votes counted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears

    She is also the State's former Lieutenant Governor.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,740

    The Labour Party has learnt from the success of its campaign of giving free publicity to Nigel Farage and is now giving free publicity to Zack Polanski.

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1985803008924438682

    Reform party: hold my antisemitic meme beer.



    https://x.com/jdpoc/status/1985302413977498008?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q


  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,588
    Pedant alert: Winsome Earle Sears is still the lieutenant governor, and will be until, at a semi-informed guess, until the middle of January.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears

    She is also the State's former Lieutenant Governor.
    Looks like Jay Jones has defeated the incumbent Jason Miyares for the AG race as well.

    I don’t know much about Miyares, but find it difficult to understand how 1.7m people voted for Jones into a position in charge of upholding the law.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031

    Sandpit said:

    Good luck New York, looks like the communist got elected.

    I guess we’re about to find out what happens when a finance capital elects someone who doesn’t believe in wealth or crime.

    Pretty sure I’d prefer a pol who doesn’t believe in crime. Electing a prez who does believe in crime has been salutary.
    Mamdani said that violence is an artificial contruct, and that the real violence is when people are prosecuted.

    https://x.com/libbyemmons/status/1985473384935723274

    I guess New York is about to experience the exact opposite of the broken windows theory of crime management, from a guy who doesn’t believe in imprisoning people.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,900
    Sandpit said:

    Good luck New York, looks like the communist got elected.

    I guess we’re about to find out what happens when a finance capital elects someone who doesn’t believe in wealth or crime.

    Not a communist.

    I guess we'll get to find out how pragmatic he is, and how much of the FUD is actually real.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,900
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears

    She is also the State's former Lieutenant Governor.
    Looks like Jay Jones has defeated the incumbent Jason Miyares for the AG race as well.

    I don’t know much about Miyares, but find it difficult to understand how 1.7m people voted for Jones into a position in charge of upholding the law.
    Blame Trump.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,740
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good luck New York, looks like the communist got elected.

    I guess we’re about to find out what happens when a finance capital elects someone who doesn’t believe in wealth or crime.

    Pretty sure I’d prefer a pol who doesn’t believe in crime. Electing a prez who does believe in crime has been salutary.
    Mamdani said that violence is an artificial contruct, and that the real violence is when people are prosecuted.

    https://x.com/libbyemmons/status/1985473384935723274

    I guess New York is about to experience the exact opposite of the broken windows theory of crime management, from a guy who doesn’t believe in imprisoning people.
    AND A GUY WHO CALL OLD LADIES AUNTY!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,900
    edited 4:53AM
    FOX on New Jersey: The reason for their vote, those who said that they wanted to oppose the sitting president, 71% of them. So this is really what led to the outcome tonight
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1985898310268567775

    LOL

    Trump weighs in for the first time on Republican losses tonight, saying on Truth Social, "'TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,' according to Pollsters."
    https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1985906777586634797
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,900

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good luck New York, looks like the communist got elected.

    I guess we’re about to find out what happens when a finance capital elects someone who doesn’t believe in wealth or crime.

    Pretty sure I’d prefer a pol who doesn’t believe in crime. Electing a prez who does believe in crime has been salutary.
    Mamdani said that violence is an artificial contruct, and that the real violence is when people are prosecuted.

    https://x.com/libbyemmons/status/1985473384935723274

    I guess New York is about to experience the exact opposite of the broken windows theory of crime management, from a guy who doesn’t believe in imprisoning people.
    AND A GUY WHO CALL OLD LADIES AUNTY!
    The Mamdani election will be, one way or another, pretty consequential.

    If he governs pragmatically, then it will undercut every GOP attack line for the next few years.

    If he doesn't, it's clearly a problem for the Democrats, but there is a possible silver lining if it defangs the more radical left of the party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,900
    Mamdani: “Donald Trump, since I know you're watching...I have four words for you: Turn the volume up!”
    https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1985929696878448645
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,900
    The best take I've seen on the NYC result.

    America’s exceptionalism is slightly overstated but New York City’s, if anything, is undersold, especially by people who don’t live here and would never want to. Bill Buckley and Norman Mailer both ran for mayor four years apart from each other; Mailer with Jimmy Breslin on a secessionist ticket. We elected a gay Jew who twice beat a Cuomo who campaigned on homophobia, then became governor. We had an Italian-American mob prosecutor who rallied the country in a time of national trauma but couldn’t clear a presidential primary and later crawled into bed with Russian intelligence and tried to overturn a U.S. presidential election. And another Italian-American mayor who ate pizza with a fucking knife and fork. In this race, the candidate with more than one cat* and a Che Guevara beret was… the Republican. Nobody here leads anything.
    https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1985934397590077565

    *Well into double figures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,900
    These results surely increase the likelihood of Trump being 25th-ed ?

    Probably not enough to actually happen before the midterms, though, without a major health event.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,571
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A 1% increase in income tax across all bands raises £10bn pa. Reducing employees NI by 1% loses £4bn of that. I'm not sure she will want to give that away.

    As Rachel says 'we must each do our bit'. This suggests that she is willing to increase tax on workers too.

    2% on income tax at all bands plus threshold freeze to 2030 raises £30bn.

    And probably sends Labour to fifth in the polls behind Reform, The Tories, The Greens and LDs...decisions, decisions..
    How many of the people who are currently sticking with Labour are really going to leave because of a tax rise? I just don't see it, the impact is it makes some of the people who have already left harder/impossible to win back but equally some of the people flirting with the Greens or Corbyn's latest fiasco happier, they want to see spending protected and even grow.

    It is a Westminster talking point based on old two party ideas, not when Labour are already sub 20%.
    I expect centrist Labour voters would be furious the income tax pledge was broken and would go LD or Tory, leftwing Labour voters on average or below incomes would be appalled they have been hit when they want the rich and wealthy City workers hammered with tax not them and would go for Polanski's Greens instead.

    Would the last Labour voter left then please turn out the lights!
    You are wrong, I'm a centrist non Labour voter and think it is bleeding obvious they need to do this. Why would I view it negatively? Lots of other things they have done I do view negatively.
    So you are a centrist NON Labour voter, what might attract you to Reeves committing electoral suicide raising income tax from basic rate and above with no compensating tax cut?

    Voters can be ruthless if a party betrays a clear manifesto pledge, as the LDs discovered in 2015. There is no automatic reason even for those still voting Labour to do so, centrists can go LD, leftwingers can go Green or YP, Labour isn't even the party of labour and the working class now, most working class voters now vote Reform
    Voters didn’t desert the Lib Dems because of tuition fees. That was just the casus belli. They deserted us on the left because of the original sin of going into coalition with the Tories, and on the right because Cameron convinced them we were going to prop up an SNP coalition.
    Not sure I agree with that. Had they managed to hold off tuition fees they could have retained the vote of the young even now. The #1 reason the Greens are so popular amongst my daughters' generation is that they are the one party who does not consider it reasonable that they start their adult lives with £50,000 of debt. And whatever you might think of the case for student fees*, that's a pretty attractive offer.

    *Personally I think the case for them was massively flawed. Though the case for free tuition was also flawed.
    I have to agree with this.

    Yes, the LDs were in coalition but it's astonishing they betrayed their voters and manifesto pledge like this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    A 1% increase in income tax across all bands raises £10bn pa. Reducing employees NI by 1% loses £4bn of that. I'm not sure she will want to give that away.

    As Rachel says 'we must each do our bit'. This suggests that she is willing to increase tax on workers too.

    2% on income tax at all bands plus threshold freeze to 2030 raises £30bn.

    And probably sends Labour to fifth in the polls behind Reform, The Tories, The Greens and LDs...decisions, decisions..
    How many of the people who are currently sticking with Labour are really going to leave because of a tax rise? I just don't see it, the impact is it makes some of the people who have already left harder/impossible to win back but equally some of the people flirting with the Greens or Corbyn's latest fiasco happier, they want to see spending protected and even grow.

    It is a Westminster talking point based on old two party ideas, not when Labour are already sub 20%.
    I expect centrist Labour voters would be furious the income tax pledge was broken and would go LD or Tory, leftwing Labour voters on average or below incomes would be appalled they have been hit when they want the rich and wealthy City workers hammered with tax not them and would go for Polanski's Greens instead.

    Would the last Labour voter left then please turn out the lights!
    You are wrong, I'm a centrist non Labour voter and think it is bleeding obvious they need to do this. Why would I view it negatively? Lots of other things they have done I do view negatively.
    So you are a centrist NON Labour voter, what might attract you to Reeves committing electoral suicide raising income tax from basic rate and above with no compensating tax cut?

    Voters can be ruthless if a party betrays a clear manifesto pledge, as the LDs discovered in 2015. There is no automatic reason even for those still voting Labour to do so, centrists can go LD, leftwingers can go Green or YP, Labour isn't even the party of labour and the working class now, most working class voters now vote Reform
    Voters didn’t desert the Lib Dems because of tuition fees. That was just the casus belli. They deserted us on the left because of the original sin of going into coalition with the Tories, and on the right because Cameron convinced them we were going to prop up an SNP coalition.
    Not sure I agree with that. Had they managed to hold off tuition fees they could have retained the vote of the young even now. The #1 reason the Greens are so popular amongst my daughters' generation is that they are the one party who does not consider it reasonable that they start their adult lives with £50,000 of debt. And whatever you might think of the case for student fees*, that's a pretty attractive offer.

    *Personally I think the case for them was massively flawed. Though the case for free tuition was also flawed.
    I have to agree with this.

    Yes, the LDs were in coalition but it's astonishing they betrayed their voters and manifesto pledge like this.
    It’s still surprising that no-one has had a really good go at using technology to upend the university business model.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,945
    Nigelb said:

    These results surely increase the likelihood of Trump being 25th-ed ?

    Probably not enough to actually happen before the midterms, though, without a major health event.

    Wishful thinking I’m afraid. Trump isn’t going anywhere unless he dies.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,945
    Those results were pretty shocking for the Republicans. To lose the governor races, New York and the California redistributing are all understandable. To have an incumbent AG lose a race to somebody who arguably should be facing criminal charges is extremely bad and suggests without even more industrial scale vote rigging next year will be a bloodbath.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,571
    HYUFD said:

    Sir Alan Bates has received a multi million pound compensation settlement from the PO after his campaigning, as well as the knighthood he got from the King
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5e723qv0no

    Very good news. Justice at last, I hope.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,292
    Morning all! The impact on the mid-terms?

    There won’t be any in Democrat areas.

    No elections for seditious communist terrorists.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031
    edited 6:24AM
    ydoethur said:

    Those results were pretty shocking for the Republicans. To lose the governor races, New York and the California redistributing are all understandable. To have an incumbent AG lose a race to somebody who arguably should be facing criminal charges is extremely bad and suggests without even more industrial scale vote rigging next year will be a bloodbath.

    The industrial scale vote rigging measure passed in California, so that will definitely happen next year.

    As we saw during the first Trump presidency, many of his supporters don’t care about mid term elections, and the Democrats have a more enthused activist base to vote against the incumbent President.

    The US House almost certainly goes Dem next year, which means that the incumbent House has one year left to actually codify Trump’s extensive use of executive orders into law, having achieved bugger all of note in the last nine months!

    Yes the Virginia AG result is quite shocking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031

    HYUFD said:

    Sir Alan Bates has received a multi million pound compensation settlement from the PO after his campaigning, as well as the knighthood he got from the King
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5e723qv0no

    Very good news. Justice at last, I hope.
    Justice finally for Mr Bates, but let’s not forget the hundreds of others affected by this scandal, and let’s hope the right thing is done to them all as quickly as possible.

    For many, sadly, justice will come too late.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,292
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Those results were pretty shocking for the Republicans. To lose the governor races, New York and the California redistributing are all understandable. To have an incumbent AG lose a race to somebody who arguably should be facing criminal charges is extremely bad and suggests without even more industrial scale vote rigging next year will be a bloodbath.

    The industrial scale vote rigging measure passed in California, so that will definitely happen next year.

    As we saw during the first Trump presidency, many of his supporters don’t care about mid term elections, and the Democrats have a more enthused activist base to vote against the incumbent President.

    The US House almost certainly goes Dem next year, which means that the incumbent House has one year left to actually codify Trump’s extensive use of executive orders into law, having achieved bugger all of note in the last nine months!
    Prop 50 in California is an appalling undemocratic monstrosity. Passed in direct response to the same already happening in Texas and elsewhere.

    You say “the house will go Dem”. No, it won’t. Trump will now shut down democracy in Democrat cities and states. He has the perfect excuse now- send the Guard into New York. That kicks off other cities into protest and they get the same. An unending state of national emergency where terrorists do not get a vote.

    Next question- longest ever shut down of the federal government. Does it reopen and under what edict? Trump doesn’t need a federal government.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,078
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: forecast might change but right now looking wet Saturday and dry Sunday. Might make it a bit trickier for Verstappen in the Grand Prix.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,945
    edited 6:32AM
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Those results were pretty shocking for the Republicans. To lose the governor races, New York and the California redistributing are all understandable. To have an incumbent AG lose a race to somebody who arguably should be facing criminal charges is extremely bad and suggests without even more industrial scale vote rigging next year will be a bloodbath.

    The industrial scale vote rigging measure passed in California, so that will definitely happen next year.

    As we saw during the first Trump presidency, many of his supporters don’t care about mid term elections, and the Democrats have a more enthused activist base to vote against the incumbent President.

    The US House almost certainly goes Dem next year, which means that the incumbent House has one year left to actually codify Trump’s extensive use of executive orders into law, having achieved bugger all of note in the last nine months!

    Yes the Virginia AG result is quite shocking.
    If I were looking for betting implications I'd be looking in the Senate.

    I'd not even bother betting on Maine, and I can't see the Republicans taking Georgia or Michigan on those numbers.

    Ohio looks to be value as a Republican loss. Likewise North Carolina.

    The Dems would need one more seat to take the Senate if they won those. The map is distinctly unkind to them, but OGH Jr has mentioned Texas. On these figures, the Republicans might even have reason to be nervous in Mississippi.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,562
    edited 6:33AM
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Those results were pretty shocking for the Republicans. To lose the governor races, New York and the California redistributing are all understandable. To have an incumbent AG lose a race to somebody who arguably should be facing criminal charges is extremely bad and suggests without even more industrial scale vote rigging next year will be a bloodbath.

    The industrial scale vote rigging measure passed in California, so that will definitely happen next year.

    As we saw during the first Trump presidency, many of his supporters don’t care about mid term elections, and the Democrats have a more enthused activist base to vote against the incumbent President.

    The US House almost certainly goes Dem next year, which means that the incumbent House has one year left to actually codify Trump’s extensive use of executive orders into law, having achieved bugger all of note in the last nine months!

    Yes the Virginia AG result is quite shocking.
    Gerrymandering is clearly a bad thing. But the GOP can hardly complain about California when they've been doing the same thing in other states for many years, including Texas most recently. The end result is too important for one side to play nicely if the other side isn't.

    Republicans have spent the last month not even sitting in the House. So they don't seem in too much of a rush on their legislative agenda.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,031

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: forecast might change but right now looking wet Saturday and dry Sunday. Might make it a bit trickier for Verstappen in the Grand Prix.

    Remember also that it’s a S****t weekend in Brazil, so only the one practice session. The shorter ‘event’ on Saturday morning might be fun in the rain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,078
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: forecast might change but right now looking wet Saturday and dry Sunday. Might make it a bit trickier for Verstappen in the Grand Prix.

    Remember also that it’s a S****t weekend in Brazil, so only the one practice session. The shorter ‘event’ on Saturday morning might be fun in the rain.
    Yeah. Verstappen tends to do well at sprint weekends. Alonso can be better than usual as well (adaptable driving style).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,945
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir Alan Bates has received a multi million pound compensation settlement from the PO after his campaigning, as well as the knighthood he got from the King
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr5e723qv0no

    Very good news. Justice at last, I hope.
    Justice finally for Mr Bates, but let’s not forget the hundreds of others affected by this scandal, and let’s hope the right thing is done to them all as quickly as possible.

    For many, sadly, justice will come too late.
    They seem to be pushing forward on several payouts they were previously trying to row back on. My guess is they're unnerved by police investigations.

    Oldest victim of Post Office scandal, 92, receives final payout
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74jvd0drvvo

    But we won't have seen injustice until some of these scum are jailed good and hard, both as punishment and pour encourager les autres.
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