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Getting squeezed like a Chippendale’s arse at a hen party – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,334
    The Labour Party has learnt from the success of its campaign of giving free publicity to Nigel Farage and is now giving free publicity to Zack Polanski.

    https://x.com/UKLabour/status/1985803008924438682
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,334
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:
    "Spanberger has focused her campaign on affordability, while Earle-Sears has run on cultural and gender issues. "

    Sums it all up.
    Only just noticed the GOP have a black woman as candidate. Shows how little attention I've been paying to it.
    There were some viral moments from the debate they had.

    https://x.com/eclipsethis2003/status/1976999793873535214
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    First numbers are out in VA.

    The interesting bit to me is that the Governorship is showing Dems +10%, but the Attorney General race is neck and neck.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    For those waiting US results, details of the Russian refineries etc being hit in the "Russian hellscape"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdY68VR2Sfc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Early data from Virginia is showing the Republicans running ahead of their 2024 performance in the majority black Brunswick County, but well down in Mannassas, which is majority Hispanic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    rcs1000 said:

    First numbers are out in VA.

    The interesting bit to me is that the Governorship is showing Dems +10%, but the Attorney General race is neck and neck.

    "Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares is seeking a second term against former State Del. Jay Jones. In recent weeks, the race has centered around resurfaced violent text messages that Jones sent in 2022. Jones has apologized for the texts, but Miyares has called them disqualifying."

    Down to candidate selection...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    Virginia Lt. Gov. race:

    "Former conservative radio host John Reid would be the nation’s first openly gay Republican elected to statewide office, while Ghazala Hashmi, a progressive state senator from the Richmond area, would be the nation’s first Muslim woman elected to statewide office. The winner would have the power to break ties in the State Senate, which could be crucial as Democrats currently have a narrow 21-19 majority in the chamber."

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    edited 12:43AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    edited 12:50AM
    viewcode said:
    The Democratic candidate for Virginian governor Spanberger leads by 10% over Republican candidate Earle-Sears with 27% of votes in.

    Harris beat Trump by only 6% in Virginia last year, so first signs of a swing away from Trump and the GOP since 2024
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    Where is @DoubleCarpet ? It's not an election until he pops up
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
    NYT estimates it will end up with Spanberger on 67%, so a 13% lead. I suspect they will be broadly right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    rcs1000 said:

    Early data from Virginia is showing the Republicans running ahead of their 2024 performance in the majority black Brunswick County, but well down in Mannassas, which is majority Hispanic.

    The GOP candidate is a black woman of course
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    Noo Joisey exit poll stuff:

    "The top three issues for New Jersey voters boil down to affordability, according to exit polls. Taxes, economy and health care were the top three issues voters raised in the Garden State with just 20 minutes until polls closed.

    New Jersey boasts the highest property tax rate in the country. The affordability issues driving New Jersey's gubernatorial race mirror the race for mayor in New York City, where early results from an NBC News exit poll indicated 72% of mayoral voters said the cost of housing was a major problem."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
    NYT estimates it will end up with Spanberger on 67%, so a 13% lead. I suspect they will be broadly right.
    Not everybody has a NYT account :(
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 12:56AM
    CNN PROJECTION:

    Spanberger (Dem) wins VA Governor
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    CNN projects Spannberger the winner.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like a comfortable result for Spanberger in Virginia - about a 12 percentage point win, which is almost exactly in line with polls.

    Currently 15.2% lead with 22% in.
    Yes, my estimate may have been a little low.

    The Dems will be happy with that result.
    But... Lead now down to 10% after 27%
    NYT estimates it will end up with Spanberger on 67%, so a 13% lead. I suspect they will be broadly right.
    I assume that's a typo and should be 57%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Neck and neck in New Jersey, with both candidates duking it out on 0 votes each.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 1:08AM
    New Jersey:

    Dem 59/40

    11% in
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 1:09AM
    Hudson County:

    Dem running 5% ahead of last time

    John King: Dem running ahead of last time in every County he has checked

    BUT: Early vote may be more Dem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,266
    edited 1:08AM
    rcs1000 said:

    Neck and neck in New Jersey, with both candidates duking it out on 0 votes each.

    NJ Governor election now 54% for Democrat Sherrill and 45% for Republican Ciattarelli with 12% in, in 2024 NJ was Harris 51.97% and Trump 46.06%, so again a slight shift to the Democrats since last year
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,841
    viewcode said:
    The splits on the exit polls in Virginia are pretty gruesome, split R/D 55% / 45% with white voters but 22% / 75% with other ethnicities, 53% / 45% male, 37% / 61% female.
    Similar in New Jersey.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Now 63/37, 16% in

    Massive data error: 57,000 Dem votes in Burlington were missing, now added
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    edited 1:20AM
    NJ: After 21%, Dem 64.5%, Rep 35%.

    Reminder, in 2024 NJ was Harris 51.97% and Trump 46.06% - so a huge shift if maintained.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Dopermean said:

    viewcode said:
    The splits on the exit polls in Virginia are pretty gruesome, split R/D 55% / 45% with white voters but 22% / 75% with other ethnicities, 53% / 45% male, 37% / 61% female.
    Similar in New Jersey.
    Which is why I think the Texas redistricting is potentially a disaster for the Republicans: it's based on them maintaining their 2024 gains with Hispanic voters, and if those dissipate -even only moderately- they could end up losing seats that they've drawn too close.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    NJ: After 21%, Dem 64.5%, Rep 35%.

    Reminder, in 2024 NJ was Harris 51.97% and Trump 46.06% - so a huge shift if maintained.

    New Jersey was the second biggest swing to the Republicans in the country.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    As an aside, US economic numbers are really horrible right now. US factory production has now shrunk eight months in a row. (With tariffs a significant contributory factor.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    rcs1000 said:

    Dopermean said:

    viewcode said:
    The splits on the exit polls in Virginia are pretty gruesome, split R/D 55% / 45% with white voters but 22% / 75% with other ethnicities, 53% / 45% male, 37% / 61% female.
    Similar in New Jersey.
    Which is why I think the Texas redistricting is potentially a disaster for the Republicans: it's based on them maintaining their 2024 gains with Hispanic voters, and if those dissipate -even only moderately- they could end up losing seats that they've drawn too close.
    Be so damn funny if Texas is a net loss for the Republicans - and flips the House...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    Is New York closing at 2am our time?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Andy_JS said:

    Is New York closing at 2am our time?

    Yes
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    edited 1:44AM
    PA Supreme Court:

    3 Dem justices up for re-election - all being returned for new 10 year terms by overwhelming 80/20 margin.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,337
    rcs1000 said:

    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.

    Surprised the NJ race hasn't been called yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is New York closing at 2am our time?

    Yes
    Hoping for an exit poll.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    Assuming that the votes continue to come in at the same rate in each county, the Dem should win the Virginia Attorney-General race by about 38K votes, BUT this does not include counties which have yet to call any votes, so treat with a pinch of salt.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823

    rcs1000 said:

    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.

    Surprised the NJ race hasn't been called yet.
    Vote count seems to have ground to a halt.

    Dem obviously looks very good - but only issue is most of votes in are early votes which are more Dem.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521

    rcs1000 said:

    The New Jersey race is looking like an even more comfortable Dem win than Virginia - and more of a reversal from 2024 than Virginia.

    Surprised the NJ race hasn't been called yet.
    Vinny hasn't worked out which boxes to fix yet. Capisce?

    (narrator: viewcode has never been to NJ in my life. Sorry, NJ people)

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Just as I post the above, new chunk comes in:

    NJ now 57/43, 41% in

    So it is tightening.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.
  • NY Exit poll, Mamdani winning every ross section

    Gender
    Male (44%)
    46%
    37%
    13%
    Female (55%)
    47%
    40%
    10%
    I identify another way (1%)
    Not enough data
    Are you:
    White (49%)
    44%
    41%
    13%
    Black (18%)
    52%
    37%
    5%
    Hispanic/Latino (18%)
    46%
    37%
    13%
    Asian (10%)
    61%
    29%
    9%
    Other (5%)
    46%
    34%
    11%
    Race
    White (49%)
    44%
    41%
    13%
    Non-White (51%)
    51%
    35%
    10%
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    I remind you that I said Cuomo is a bad man and that he should lose. Who knows, maybe it'll set a trend.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Couldn't the anti-Mamdani forces find a better candidate than Cuomo?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Mamdani is ahead in every borough instead of Staten Island. Which only has about 160,000 votes cast. Out of a total of two million. It's hard to see Cuomo pulling it back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Couldn't the anti-Mamdani forces find a better candidate than Cuomo?
    Silwa was a better candidate than Cuomo. Unfortunately, he got squeezed out of the news cycle.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    New York 36% counted, Mandami up by 11-12 percent.

    He's won.

    Couldn't the anti-Mamdani forces find a better candidate than Cuomo?
    Silwa was a better candidate than Cuomo. Unfortunately, he got squeezed out of the news cycle.
    It illustrates the problem. Heck, I'd've considered voting for Silwa. But Cuomo has lots of money and lots of contacts and thought he could just wander in and buy an election. So it turned an argument about policy into an argument about ethics, and Cuomo was dripping with fly-spattered excrement in that respect.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    CNN PROJECTION

    Sherrill (Dem) wins New Jersey Governor
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    Just 31% remaining and Mamdami is up by 9 percentage points.

    It's over. Mamdami is Mayor of New York City.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    Just 31% remaining and Mamdami is up by 9 percentage points.

    It's over. Mamdami is Mayor of New York City.

    NBC has called it for him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,594
    rcs1000 said:

    Just 31% remaining and Mamdami is up by 9 percentage points.

    It's over. Mamdami is Mayor of New York City.

    Bookies were right and Betfair was wrong (or was right but less right). 1/10 with Betfair but 1/25 with the books. Sometimes the value is with the favourite and losers are at massive prices for a reason.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199
    One of my Facebook friends just posted -and I'm paraphrasing here, but only slightly- "If you voted for Mandami, please unfriend me".
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    CNN PROJECTION:

    Mamdani (Dem) wins NYC Mayor
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    rcs1000 said:

    One of my Facebook friends just posted -and I'm paraphrasing here, but only slightly- "If you voted for Mandami, please unfriend me".

    CoughcoughBoomercoughcough... :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    NBC just called the Virginia AG race for the Dems.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-elections/virginia-attorney-general-results#summary

    It's a clean sweep for the Dems in NY/NJ/VA tonight.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,521
    I'm the only one still awake, aren't I?

    Pause

    Go to bed, viewcode

    (narrator: viewcode is going to bed now)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    I'm still here!

    CA polls close in one hour.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    CNN PROJECTION:

    PA Supreme Court - All 3 Dem justices re-elected to new 10 year terms.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,351
    rcs1000 said:

    One of my Facebook friends just posted -and I'm paraphrasing here, but only slightly- "If you voted for Mandami, please unfriend me".

    Only supporters of the sex predator are allowed to be my friends. Hmm.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,999
    Good luck New York, looks like the communist got elected.

    I guess we’re about to find out what happens when a finance capital elects someone who doesn’t believe in wealth or crime.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,587
    Washington state polls close in about 20 minutes, Most important races: Seattle mayoralty and King County executive.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,347
    viewcode said:

    I'm the only one still awake, aren't I?

    Pause

    Go to bed, viewcode

    (narrator: viewcode is going to bed now)

    I'm still awake, toggling between Derren Brown Seance and Traitors Australia, lol.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,587
    edited 3:43AM
    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,999

    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears

    She’s quite different From the average GOP candidate.

    Looks like she’s going to fall short though, Spanberger on 56% with nearly all votes counted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,199

    Andy_JS - Winsome Earle-Sears is not just a black woman, she's an immigrant from Jamaica, an electrician, a former Marine, and a former Salvation Army "lassie".

    And more:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winsome_Earle-Sears

    She is also the State's former Lieutenant Governor.
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