D’Hondt Cry For Me Argentina – politicalbetting.com
D’Hondt Cry For Me Argentina – politicalbetting.com
Sunday 26th October has one of the more interesting elections of the year, the Argentinian Mid-term Chamber of Deputies and Senate Elections. This is significant for Non-Argentinians in that as well as President Trump several UK Politicians, most notably Badenoch and Farage, are open admirers of President Milei’s programme of massive spending cuts to revive the economy.
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As per, on steroids.
I am delighted you have followed my lead and used a brilliantly subtle pun in your headline.
When I first visited Argentina, I was surprised at how cold Argentina can be.
In fact, it's bordering on Chile.
About the only thing worse is list PR, so it's a good job Wales hasn't switched to it for the next Senedd elec...ah.
This was stupid on two counts:
1) Price signals are there for a reason. In times of scarcity we want people to respond to them, rather than carry on consuming as normal.
2) The bond markets were well out of their comfort zones with a government making an open ended commitment to price fixing which might have run to hundreds of billions in the worst case scenario.
A far better designed arrangement would have been to let electric prices float free, and give every bill payer a credit equal to the smaller of their annual electricity bill for the previous year, or £1k.
A few hard edge cases to sort (eg what about 1st time bill payers, how would this work for people on prepayment meters), but for the bulk of people this would have achieved a similar level of subsidy to what they actually did, but without destroying the price signal (as using less electricity would save you lots of money - you just got to keep your government subsidy and spend it on something else), without the biggest beneficiaries being rich people heating their swimming pools (hence the £1k cap), and without the cost being open ended and frightening off the bond market.
I suspect that Truss did what she did because politically she had to do something, but she was too focused on the mini-budget planning to realise the peril of such an enormous open-ended commitment to her premiership.
Obviously, after the markets turned, it suited her political opponents to pin it all on some fairly small unfunded tax cuts rather than the stupid policy they'd all been calling for her to carry out.
Have a good day, everyone.
Most southerly golf course in the world.
And a sign that says "Fin del Mundo"....
Was wondering why I felt refreshed despite an early start.
Wonderfully pedantic letter in today’s @FT.
https://x.com/hwallop/status/1982188165113724960?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Start having sex the moment the clocks go forward and then you can brag to the world that you lasted one hour and thirty seconds.
As to the elections, I have no expertise to add beyond what is comprehensively covered above.
I've been following Argentina's economy closely and I think Milei, though incredibly brave and right in most respects, will ultimately be thwarted by the nationwide obsession with the dollar exchange rate as a mark of success, which he shares to some extent. Beyond the rarified realm of economic models, a classic sign of an overvalued exchange rate is when Argentinians go shopping en masse, in, or start to retire to, Brazil and Paraguay, and I understand we're seeing quite a lot of that now, But I could be wrong, especially if the dollar weakens significantly.
However, if Milei defies the massive odds against him and reignites a sustainable recovery, it would be yet another small nail in the coffin of our dismal government's illiterate tax and spend economic policy. Would people be saying, as they did with economic miracle West Germany after WWII, "I thought we won the war"?
Good luck to him.
Two months to Boxing Day? One month to Budget Day, when Rachel Reeves will, unless the press has misled me, raise income tax, make pensioners pay national insurance, impose a mansion tax, increase CGT and make lawyers pay their due instead of hiding behind partnerships? OK, that last one might be popular.
Prince Andrew faces humiliation at historic Commons debate
MPs plan to defy convention and discuss stripping Andrew of his titles for good as pressure to leave Royal Lodge builds
Prince Andrew faces a pincer movement from parliament and Buckingham Palace to strip him of his dukedom and banish him from his 30-room mansion in Windsor.
MPs are set to discuss Andrew’s future, defying years of convention that usually prevents politicians from criticising the royal family.
The Liberal Democrats have signalled that they intend to use their next Opposition Day debate to allow members to consider officially removing Andrew’s Duke of York title and discuss his continued use of Royal Lodge. Although such debates are rarely binding, it will allow the Commons to “express its will” and heap pressure on the government and the King to act...
...By convention, MPs are not allowed to criticise royals in the Commons. Opposition Day debates are one of the only ways the conduct of a royal can be raised. According to Erskine May, the guide to parliamentary procedure, such a debate permits “critical language of a kind which would not be allowed in speeches in debate”.
Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, has separately called for Andrew and his landlord, the Crown Estate, to give evidence to MPs on an influential select committee about the terms of the lease on Royal Lodge.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/prince-andrew-faces-humiliation-at-historic-commons-debate-x7rgzcqbf
London — Masked Muslim radicals gather in White Chapel to claim ownership of the neighbourhood. They are using BLM chants.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1982124897011646735?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c891p1pez42o
Post WWII, the U.K. spent loan after loan from the US on trying to support the pound.
While growing up in the 80s, every tip pot dictator had fixed exchange rate, with a collapsed economy and a lively black market.
Then there was the ERM comedy.
I never understood it. The pressure is there. The cost of holding an artificial exchange rate is large. So you run out of funds and then the movement happens anyway.
It's Penistone Road in case you're wondering.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/25/timothy-mellon-donor-military-pay-shutdown
One wonders how long he will be a billionaire if the shutdown continues...
The currency situation is quite critical as devaluation drives up inflation, and makes repayments due to the IMF even more expensive. On the other hand the artificially high Peso and low tariffs are sucking in imports and damaging domestic industry. Hence the Trump currency support. Ultimately you can't buck the markets forever.
I see this election as a test of how an electorate is willing to suffer cuts in the interest of long term growth. That is of interest to us all..
Sources close to the investigation claim that digital forensic evidence shows a member of security was in contact before the heist with individuals thought to be the perpetrators.
https://youtu.be/32ZcuN1mDrM?si=CG8ucY-3GvXuR7iH
How much more help did this guard give than the museum's management, who seem to have abandoned all rational safeguards in the name of cost-cutting?
The result of the alternation between the left and the Peronists in Argentina has been economic collapse. There were Argentinian economic refugees in *Peru*.
Some years before the Greek collapse, a Professor of economics at Athens university said that the government needed to reduce the deficit. Not eliminate it. He was hounded out, with serious death threats made against him. The Verruca joined in - claiming that the Prof deserved it, since he was advocating “Defying the Will of the People”.
To be fair, sterling is for example 7.5% up against the Kiwi Dollar this year - I was getting NZ$2.24 when I was there, I was nearly NZ$2.35 briefly last week but is back to NZ$2.32 now. The New Zealand economy is not without its issues which goes to show so-called centre right Governments have as few answers as so-called centre-left ones.
The kind of "supply side reforms" so beloved by many from the Thatcherite days aren't going to fly now but they keep being repeated as a kind of mantra. Recognising that BOTH tax rises AND spending cuts are probably the way to pay the bill is the correct approach and no one will like it but, absent any other practical, workable, legal and effective alternatives, that's where we'll have to go.
The wealth is based on exemptions that ordinary people are not eligible for, where's the justice in that?
When even Jon Sopel on Sky says people are 'laughing at the government' they need to really worry
What I don't know is if these "protesters" are newer generation Bengalis and as I reported there has been a lot of tension between the established Bengali community and newer more conservative arrivals from Bangladesh (there was some hope with the downfall of Sheikh Hasina, tensions might ease. It may be these Muslims aren't from Bangladesh at all but from other parts of Africa and Asia.
The local politics of this is whether Rahman and Aspire can consolidate their hold on Tower Hamlets next May. They won a majority in 2022 but defections have eroded that and they currently have 22 councillors with the combined opposition on 23 (Lab 16, Ind 5, Con 1, Green 1). There's also the marginal Bethnal Green & Stepney parliamentary seat.
I think people have given up on this government, particularly Starmer and Reeves. There’s just a general sense of distain. The budget is just going to hammer the point home even more.
A Labour reset won’t work unless the fundamentals change. I suspect that won’t happen without change at the top, though there is still a chance they can claw some support back if some key metrics improve in the next 12- 24 months.
Not seen much mention of the two polls published overnight.
First, Opinium (fieldwork, 24/10 and 25/10, changes from two weeks ago):
➡️ REF: 30% (-2)
🌹 LAB: 20% (-2)
🌳 CON: 18% (=)
🔶 LDEM: 12% (+1)
🟢 GRN: 12% (+2)
Then we have an Ashcroft poll which is in the Mail on Sunday:
Reform: 29%
Labour: 19%
Conservative: 19%
Green: 17%
Liberal Democrats: 11%
That looks the highest Green poll number for some time.
The "split" (Ref/Con vs Lab/LD/Green) is 48-44 with Opinium and 48-47 with Ashcroft.
There's also been a Scottish poll by Survation - details:
Constituency / List %s:
34 / 29 SNP
22 / 20 Reform
18 / 17 Labour
10 / 12 Tories
8 / 10 LibDems
7 / 10 Greens
1 / 2 Alba
Scottish Election Study seat calculator gives:
55 SNP
22 Reform
19 Labour
12 Tory
11 Greens
10 LD
0 Alba
Make of all this nonsense what you will.
And why not, simply common senses but what would labour say if the conservatives did this ?
And maybe that speaks to the tribal nature of politics acting against the public interest rather than doing the right thing
Anyone on the darker side of the racist colour chart should avoid carrying a shopping bag decorated with avocados.
Will it hold in the mid teens if Gaza is less of an issue come 2028?
Regardless, I'd expect a third of it to go the most likely candidate to beat Reform, which will most often be Labour.
I think that with Lucy Powell now deputy leader with a very different agenda, and next May, does pose a genuine threat to Starmer's position
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kpqp9zk0go
There are big philosophical problems with NZ / Aoteroa at the moment. The Treaty of Waitangi is racist by any definition even if it isn't in practice. There are almost as many Chinese / Pacific / Indian as the are Maori. The Maori are protected by the Treaty, the Chinese are not. That is why when you go into any motel or pub, especially on South Island you will be served by Chinese, never by Maori. It is easy to see David Seymour as no more than a thinking Kiwi's Nigel Farage but he really does have some depth. I desperately hope for NZ's sake the coalition holds on after the next elections. The struggles of the NZ$ suggest the markets think it probably won't.
Chris Luxton is the one person I would rather have leading the UK Tories over Kemi.
You said it was “dodging”.
Complying with the law is not “dodging”.
Milei has also had some success in reducing inflation and borrowing and cutting the deficit in Argentina by slashing the size of the civil service and state and growing the economy. Hence his popularity with Trump, Badenoch and Farage and Meloni. The opposition though have claimed he has led to weakened public services, job cuts and reduced wage growth and will be hoping that sees gains by them tonight
The alternative to the monarchy is having a political head of state. Compare and contrast support for the King and support for Starmer.
And the escapee has been arrested
▪️Liverpool are concerned
▪️ Jurgen Klopp would say ‘yes’
Liverpool owners/officials are really starting to get concerned over the team's performances, not just the results.
Arne Slot’s job is safe for now, but if performances don’t pick up, they won’t hesitate to make a change mid-season.
𝐎𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐚𝐲𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐥𝐮𝐛 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐉𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐧 𝐊𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐩 𝐦𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧. But as of now, there’s been no contact.
https://x.com/indykaila/status/1982372146996269263?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Executive of this particular government - not really.
This is a gigantic and ridiculous f*** up of incompetence reflective of much of modern UK life. Managers cut things to the bone, staff get unmotivated, rely on processes and procedures they don't understand which creates an environment without common sense and the potential for mistakes like this to happen.
The reality is simple, if we want a good justice system, we need to both pay for it and pay attention to it, not just blame the PM/Home Secretary when things inevitably go wrong.
Will it soon be another suitcase in the hall for Millei?
Don't throw words like escaped round when that is no part of the story - that merely encourages Farage and co.
Liverpool bought too many players at the same time.
Also blaming Newcastle for Isak not being match fit was pointing the blame at the wrong place.
He was being transferred for deportation and I assume he will be deported very quickly
King Charles and Camilla are well liked, Prince William and Kate are well liked, and as far as we know so far their children are also adorable.
No change any time soon.
I have to say our experience of Air NZ internal flights on our last visit was very positive and the news the former "direct" service from London to Auckland (via LAX), which was withdrawn around the pandemic, may be re-instated soon from LGW rather than LHR has pleased Mrs Stodge no end.
On the Maori question, Seymour's attempts to redefine the Treaty of Waitangi have gone down like a lump of cold sick with a lot of Kiwis and not just the Maori. Historically, the Maori were always in the North Island though your comments about encountering Chinese (more likely Cambodian or Vietnamese) people in the South could equally apply to Auckland and parts of the north as well. One of the big bakery and cafe chains is called Angkor Wat which is a clue.
Seymour is considered to be stirring things up and has driven Te Pati Maori even more into the Labour/Green camp.
Peters is NZ's answer to Farage though he's a far better political operator than our Nige. NZF plays the social conservative card (ACT are more economic conservatives, the best analogy would be the German FDP perhaps). Luxon has had to balance these two often competing elements and it hasn't been easy.
In October 2023, National beat Labour 38-27 but now Labour lead 35-29 so that's an 8.5% swing. On those numbers, National lose 13 seats and Labour gain nine and with little change among the other parties (oddly enough, NZ is almost where we are, two main parties and three minor but significant groups), Labour's coalition would have a 61-60 edge over the National-led bloc.
To be fair, there's still a year before the election (almost exactly) and a lot can and doubtless will happen but for me the story of recent NZ politics has been the resurrection of the Starmer-like Labour leader Chris Hipkins (they are all called Chris in NZ politics apparently) who oversaw the defeat in 2023 but has survived and now looks the next possible PM.
The current rate by the way is 43p for every NZ dollar or NZ$2.32 for every pound.
That's hilarious
30% and 29% for Reform with those 2 polls is well below the 36% they got even in Caerphilly so Farage's party remains very vulnerable to tactical voting against them given they failed to win in the Caerphilly by election.
SNP down to just 55 seats at Holyrood Survation which would be their lowest number of MSPs since 2007. A unionist majority just 3 MSPs short too, so if some tactical votes for Labour on the constituency vote to beat the SNP in seats whose boundaries overlap with the seats Labour won at Westminster in Scotland last year could well be achieved.
Labour and the Scottish Conservatives both projected to get their lowest number of MSPs since Holyrood was founded in 1999 with Reform and the Greens the main gainers along with the LDs
As broadcast on the BBC
How dare they cover a story of public interest as it makes some uncomfortable !
1. Royal Lodge is owned by the Crown Estate. It is not part of the royal family's personal property.
2. The Crown Estate is an independent corporation which manages a whole load of assets, including land and its profits go back to the Treasury. It's legal obligations are set out in 2 statutes - one in 1961 and one earlier this year.
3. Its latest report is here - https://www.datocms-assets.com/136653/1751320624-ar-25-the-crown-estate-annual-report.pdf. Its current Chair is Robin Budenberg, who used to be a UBs investment banker (often advising the government). I have worked with him.
4. Andrew has a lease on Royal Lodge. Under its terms, he had to pay (and has paid) £8.5 million for the repair of the property and his annual rent is a peppercorn one, though he has continuing obligations to keep the property in a good state of repair. Whether this agreement made good financial / property sense at the time, I cannot say but it would have been reviewed by the Crown Estate legal and property advisors and would, I assume, have had to be signed off by the relevant persons.
5. Whether it now makes sense for him and his ex to live in a house which is far larger than they need and given his personal behaviour and its effects on the working royals is another matter which is separate from whether the Crown Estate handled the decision about the use of this property and the money for it properly or well. It may well have been a sensible agreement at the time.
6. Regardless of Andrew's behaviour, there is something wrong about tearing up lawful contracts because we don't like particular individuals. The rule of law should mean something and there are far too many instances at the moment of all sorts of people and organisations who should know better taking the view that they should simply ignore any laws, judgments or contracts they do not like or which inconveniences them. This is a wrong. We should say so loudly and clearly not indulge this nonsense. It is very Trumpian behaviour and it is one of the many ironies that it is often done by people who claim to despise Trump or who think of themselves as "progressive".
7. Parliament had an opportunity to debate how the Crown Estate should operate when it passed the Crown Estate Act 2025. I wonder how many of the MPs now making a noise about Andrew took the opportunity to do this. It's not as if his difficulties were not known about.
TBC
9. If he has broken the law in other respects, the law should take its course. I suspect that a lot of highly placed individuals - many of them politicians (I could name names but won't) - have met with or done business with or even accepted, money, hospitality and gifts from dubious Chinese individuals or people from other dodgy Eastern European or Middle Eastern countries or even countries such as Australia. It is practically the business plan for a part of Britain's wealth management sector.
10. He is not an asset to the royal family and his personal behaviour, if even a fraction of the stories about him are true, sounds quite ghastly. He is probably quite representative of a certain slice of upper class/rich British males if my own experience of that group is anything to go by. It would be best if he made himself scarce so that we do not have to hear from or see him again. If Parliament wants to remove ducal titles or limit them only to working royals, they would have to pass legislation to do so. It would certainly deal with both Andrew and Harry, but it just shifts the issue to a couple of black sheep calling themselves prince. Personally I don't much care. A title does not confer grace or judgment and vulgarity is pretty widespread among the rich and titled and entitled.