OK, as nothing too world-shaking is happening today, here is a list of my ten biggest recent wrong political predictions, in no particular order:
1. Remain would edge the referendum 2. the current government would get a 6 month-1 year honeymoon in the polls 3. we'd have got rid of Northern Ireland by now 4. Kamala 24 by the narrowest of margins 5. Boris would last a full term 6. the Ukraine war would be over by now 7. UK GE 2024 vote shares. I got the margin between Lab and Con almost exactly right, but grossly overestimated the proportion of the vote the top two would get and underestimated Reform's share. I got the GE 2019 shares pretty accurate though. 8. Truss would be more competent than she was 9. Cameron would win an absolute majority in 2010 (I remember meeting Kwasi Kwarteng just before the election and telling him that. He disagreed with me and turned out to be right) 10. Labour would be the largest party in a hung Parliament in 2015
I find auditing oneself in this way a good means of curbing the arrogance that can build up if you only remember your triumphs. I don't think there's a common thread there, and I've made plenty of accurate predictions to offset against them, but that's why, though I post on this site from time to time, I don't engage in the activity from which it gets its name ...
Don't worry, we've all got plenty of things wrong.
Yes and you may realise that but it's amazing how many people don't. I have been on this site, which has more than your average level of sophistication, long enough to remember how many people make two fundamental errors over and over again: thinking that current trends will continue into the medium term and thinking that how things appear to them is how they objectively are.
I remember the number of people posting on here in 2006-7 that the Conservatives would never win again, and similarly in 2020 how the Conservatives would dominate until at least 2030. Perhaps I was lucky to learn a lesson early on - I had a friend who is one of those people who expresses everything with 110% certainty and never acknowledges another's opinion or any shades of grey. In 1990 I bet him £50 that Gulf War One would last less than a year. He thought it would last two. But it was the arrogance that he, knowing nothing about NATO weapons or anything boring like that, showed, that convinced me that, while I could be wrong, I would be more likely to be on the right side of that bet. Remembering how cocksure he was is always a good way to recall how uncertain the future is.
Come to think of it, he never paid up.
With interest, he probably owes me his pension by now ...
That's the thing, good gamblers don't actually need to know very much at all, and are comfortably regularly changing their mind...
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.
Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.
Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.
Being the most loved and most hated worked for Mrs Thatcher.
Against a deeply unpopular Labour government in 1979, a hard left leader of the opposition in 1983 and an opposition divided between Labour and the SDP Alliance in 1983 and 1987.
Kinnock would probably have beaten Thatcher in 1992 though, only the more centrist Major got the Conservatives the win in 1992 having also scrapped Thatcher’s poll tax
That is true. Mrs Thatcher only won because of external factors outside her control or even influence. But there are always external factors. The point is that Marmite can win because it motivates the lovers as much as the haters. President Trump would be another example on both the win and loss sides.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets is this so far?
Starmer isn’t working.
Steal the original for a poster - a line of Starmers disappearing off into the distance.
This is the way a great civilisation ends… not with a bang but with a flock of starmers
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.
Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.
Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.
Caerphilly is a left leaning constituency though, it even voted for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in 2019 when they lost the UK general election by a landslide.
As long as Farage wins most of the seats Boris won in 2019 he will likely still be PM and unless voters are willing to tactically vote for Labour to beat Reform not just Plaid and the LDs that will remain the case
In the vast majority of provincial non-metropolitan England, apart from areas south and west of London where the LDs are strong, Reform don't face competetion from anyone other than Conservative or Labour, parties tainted by recent or current government incompetence. This large swathe of England is where Reform is likely to sweep the board at the next GE and become at least the largest UK party in seat numbers.
Yes. The election, as it looks from here, will depend on whether the anti Reform majority in provincial England are able both to decide what party in each seat the tactical anti Reform vote would be - this is actually quite hard - and also grit their teeth and do it; especially hard for that other majority of people who don't like this government and assume the Tories are Reformlite.
On ordinary logic the LDs should be well placed to win about 450 seats. That they are not is part of the enduring fascination of UK, and especially English, politics.
There are lots of majorities. The majority don't like Reform. Ditto don't like the government. Ditto don't like Tories. Ditto won't vote LD.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
What did Geoff Hoon do, to lead the pack?
To me, Hoon gave the appearance of being terminally self-serving. He lived some way outside the Constituency and (sill does afaik), but also by the way he conducted himself politically. His orientation was always imo to cover his backside, rather than deal with questions and problems. And he made a whole series of messes, including around the Iraq War, rather than just one which he then learned from.
As Def Sec, I'd view both John Healey and Ben Wallace as being far more serious figures.
John Healey is on my shortlist of dark horse candidates when the contest arises, but I'd certainly not advise backing him beforehand since most will not actually stand. So far as I can see, Healey has not upset or offended any faction in a brief usually greeted with suspicion if not hostility on the left which to that extent counts as a win.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
What did Geoff Hoon do, to lead the pack?
To me, Hoon gave the appearance of being terminally self-serving. He lived some way outside the Constituency and (sill does afaik), but also by the way he conducted himself politically. His orientation was always imo to cover his backside, rather than deal with questions and problems. And he made a whole series of messes, including around the Iraq War, rather than just one which he then learned from.
As Def Sec, I'd view both John Healey and Ben Wallace as being far more serious figures.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.
Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.
Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.
Being the most loved and most hated worked for Mrs Thatcher.
Against a deeply unpopular Labour government in 1979, a hard left leader of the opposition in 1983 and an opposition divided between Labour and the SDP Alliance in 1983 and 1987.
Kinnock would probably have beaten Thatcher in 1992 though, only the more centrist Major got the Conservatives the win in 1992 having also scrapped Thatcher’s poll tax
That is true. Mrs Thatcher only won because of external factors outside her control or even influence. But there are always external factors. The point is that Marmite can win because it motivates the lovers as much as the haters. President Trump would be another example on both the win and loss sides.
Though Trump's triumph was as much about the primary process as the general election.
As for 2029, let's suppose the top two are Labour and Reform.
It's obvious which way the Lib Dems jump.
It's pretty clear which way the Conservative hierarchy jump, and they will probably take most of their remaining support with them.
The huge unknown is what those to the left of Labour do. When push comes to shove, how many will back Labour to oppose Reform and how many won't?
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.
Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.
Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.
Caerphilly is a left leaning constituency though, it even voted for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in 2019 when they lost the UK general election by a landslide.
As long as Farage wins most of the seats Boris won in 2019 he will likely still be PM and unless voters are willing to tactically vote for Labour to beat Reform not just Plaid and the LDs that will remain the case
In the vast majority of provincial non-metropolitan England, apart from areas south and west of London where the LDs are strong, Reform don't face competetion from anyone other than Conservative or Labour, parties tainted by recent or current government incompetence. This large swathe of England is where Reform is likely to sweep the board at the next GE and become at least the largest UK party in seat numbers.
Yes. The election, as it looks from here, will depend on whether the anti Reform majority in provincial England are able both to decide what party in each seat the tactical anti Reform vote would be - this is actually quite hard - and also grit their teeth and do it; especially hard for that other majority of people who don't like this government and assume the Tories are Reformlite.
On ordinary logic the LDs should be well placed to win about 450 seats. That they are not is part of the enduring fascination of UK, and especially English, politics.
There are lots of majorities. The majority don't like Reform. Ditto don't like the government. Ditto don't like Tories. Ditto won't vote LD.
It's a bit of a problem
It's always easier to describe what we don't want than what we do. Hence the appeal of RON as a candidate.
Trouble is that, if we all vote like that, the system breaks down. The fracturing of the party system is both a consequence and a cause of that.
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
It's federal immunity in the sense that Trump will pardon any ICE officer.
On Labour's DL election, I think the 16% turnout is rather misleading. Around 160k votes were cast. Labour membership last year was c. 300k, though I'm confident that it's significantly lower than that now, with an exodus of members to Greens, YP or nowhere. I suspect very few of the TU-affiliated members voted. So, as a proportion of actual Labour Party members, the turnout wasn't that bad. I'd guess around 40-50% of those who've paid their subs voted.
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
It's federal immunity in the sense that Trump will pardon any ICE officer.
Trump can't pardon State crimes. That's the point.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
What did Geoff Hoon do, to lead the pack?
I met him at the candy store He turned around and smiled at me
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
It's federal immunity in the sense that Trump will pardon any ICE officer.
The thought had occurred to me. Except that's fascist immunity, not federal.
On the turnout, speaking as one of the select few who voted they both seemed fine to me and also kind of similar and I don't think it's a massively consequential job so I doubt I'd have got around to it if I'd been busier.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
Hmm, he's missed a couple of points. The drawings were pretty good at portraying their subjects, especially the aircraft and vehicles - whereas the artists on some others couldn't even draw a convincing cube. And even museums - or one anyway - are cooperating with Commando these days, as I noticed the other day. Though the Tank Museum also has a decent range of Tank Girl for the millennials.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
Almost certainly not. On the traditional left-right axis, they are likely a lib dem or a left-wing Tory.
On cultural politics, perhaps Reform (but more likely Conservative) - particularly on migration. On economics/fiscal, possibly even as left as Labour.
I would agree with that. But I can see HYUFD's point that if you are the median voter as described above, and you don't look too hard, Reform doesn't look so very distant. I remain slightly mystified that Reform doesn't spend more time aiming for that sweet spot however. It is an open goal.
Does it note the selection of Gerald Cadman as a Reform PPC ?
That's actually a good point. Cadman was *extremely* subversive, certainly of the British patriot stuff. Bad egg all round. Don't think he would fit, esp if his batman was on the committee.
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
It's federal immunity in the sense that Trump will pardon any ICE officer.
Trump can't pardon State crimes. That's the point.
If he has state leaders arrested for seditious conspiracy, then who will bring state charges ?
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
Just to note that the BBC continues to go very light indeed on the emerging fascism of the USA. It feels very obvious that they are under orders.
Meanwhile LBC's Simon Marks (especially his 10 minute summary each Friday) and numerous American outlets say it how it is. Washington Week (each Friday/Saturday) is an extraordinary combination of saying it how it is and civilized discourse, Two recent links here.
On Labour's DL election, I think the 16% turnout is rather misleading. Around 160k votes were cast. Labour membership last year was c. 300k, though I'm confident that it's significantly lower than that now, with an exodus of members to Greens, YP or nowhere. I suspect very few of the TU-affiliated members voted. So, as a proportion of actual Labour Party members, the turnout wasn't that bad. I'd guess around 40-50% of those who've paid their subs voted.
More people voted in this election than the entire membership of the Conservative Party and also the equivalent of about two thirds of the Reform membership. Not great numbers, but not terrible either.
My other lukewarm take is that this wasn't the predicted Lucy Powell landslide. Bridget Phillipson's position is probably strengthened rather than weakened now.
Hmm, he's missed a couple of points. The drawings were pretty good at portraying their subjects, especially the aircraft and vehicles - whereas the artists on some others couldn't even draw a convincing cube. And even museums - or one anyway - are cooperating with Commando these days, as I noticed the other day. Though the Tank Museum also has a decent range of Tank Girl for the millennials.
Yes Commando Book artwork was always pretty good in a vivid way. Links to them keep popping up on FB which I guess indicates my interests. The most recent one showed an accurately depicted Valentine firing its pop gun at a similarly recognisable Tiger I in the Western desert which I’m guessing ends with British pluck prevailing. Probably a more likely encounter in Russia than N.Africa I think.
Edit: ha, that’s exactly the cover I was thinking about in your link!
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
SFAICS party members of all parties, now membership is so small, are mostly people who cannot see a balanced picture of what governance and the nationwide political process actually is. It's full of people who believe it is good to do X, Y and Z, and have no interest either in constraints A, B and C, or the rival claims of interests F, G and H.
Noting this, normal people don't join.
Another blind spot, shared by governments - this one is egregious - and membership is that ordinary people are infinitely more interested in ordinary competence from government than in 'change'. Secretly most people don't like change.
By competence I mean answering the phone, being easily contactable, not letting prisoners escape, timely justice, getting it right first time, not giving billions in welfare/contracts to frauds, police turning up when you call once every 20 years, not having roads that destroy a car's suspension. Boring stuff.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
Caerphilly was the perfect illustration of the important difference between the median and the mode. Reform is the modal vote and would expect to win under FPTP because they have more supporters than anyone else. Unfortunately for Reform most people hate them, so the median voter was Plaid in this case.
Here is a good interview with Andrew Marr by the New Statesman.
Ignore what he says about the right, which, as he once admitted, he can't really empathise with and so doesn't understand. But his thoughts about the centre and the left are interesting and thought-provoking.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
SFAICS party members of all parties, now membership is so small, are mostly people who cannot see a balanced picture of what governance and the nationwide political process actually is. It's full of people who believe it is good to do X, Y and Z, and have no interest either in constraints A, B and C, or the rival claims of interests F, G and H.
Noting this, normal people don't join.
Another blind spot, shared by governments - this one is egregious - and membership is that ordinary people are infinitely more interested in ordinary competence from government than in 'change'. Secretly most people don't like change.
By competence I mean answering the phone, being easily contactable, not letting prisoners escape, timely justice, getting it right first time, not giving billions in welfare/contracts to frauds, police turning up when you call once every 20 years, not having roads that destroy a car's suspension. Boring stuff.
Started well behind square one of course; can’t describe their predecessor as competent, can one.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
What did Geoff Hoon do, to lead the pack?
To me, Hoon gave the appearance of being terminally self-serving. He lived some way outside the Constituency and (sill does afaik), but also by the way he conducted himself politically. His orientation was always imo to cover his backside, rather than deal with questions and problems. And he made a whole series of messes, including around the Iraq War, rather than just one which he then learned from.
As Def Sec, I'd view both John Healey and Ben Wallace as being far more serious figures.
Ben Wallace has to have won the Called It Cup for the decade.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
What did Lucy Powell do? I think she's OK. A great opportunity for a Starmer reset. A compassionate Starmer is what's needed. Lets see more of the the human rights lawyer and less of the Trump sycophant.
I think he was entitled to a year and a half to find himself but now's the time to show what he's really like. He could do worse than folow the Mamdani playbook..
Her track record is appalling. Even Starmer thought she was too shite for his chaotic Cabinet.
Surely it is now not a case of if Starmer falls, but when, and what no hoper replaces him. There seems to be plenty of left wing Trusses and Sunaks to throw their useless hats into the ring, but no pre-Iraq Tony Blairs.
Jedward Miliband or our Ange would be favourites. A bit like Truss replacing Bozo.
Ange has sh*t the bed, so that ain't happening. Labour's death wish is complete if Milliband believes himself to be less unpopular than he was a decade ago and the party vote for the useless t***. Fortunately you can't blame me this time around as I have no vote.
OK, as nothing too world-shaking is happening today, here is a list of my ten biggest recent wrong political predictions, in no particular order:
1. Remain would edge the referendum 2. the current government would get a 6 month-1 year honeymoon in the polls 3. we'd have got rid of Northern Ireland by now 4. Kamala 24 by the narrowest of margins 5. Boris would last a full term 6. the Ukraine war would be over by now 7. UK GE 2024 vote shares. I got the margin between Lab and Con almost exactly right, but grossly overestimated the proportion of the vote the top two would get and underestimated Reform's share. I got the GE 2019 shares pretty accurate though. 8. Truss would be more competent than she was 9. Cameron would win an absolute majority in 2010 (I remember meeting Kwasi Kwarteng just before the election and telling him that. He disagreed with me and turned out to be right) 10. Labour would be the largest party in a hung Parliament in 2015
I find auditing oneself in this way a good means of curbing the arrogance that can build up if you only remember your triumphs. I don't think there's a common thread there, and I've made plenty of accurate predictions to offset against them, but that's why, though I post on this site from time to time, I don't engage in the activity from which it gets its name ...
Don't worry, we've all got plenty of things wrong.
I thought a hung parliament in 2015, Remain edging a win and Theresa May grabbing a landslide - all amongst my biggest bloopers.
And that's before we get started on my disastrous record on US politics.
My biggest political betting loss ever was betting on Theresa May in 2017. I bought Tory seats at 380 for £10 a seat. Whoops! Wiped out several years of betting wins, did that mistake.
Everyone blames the left for multiculturalism but what about all the Christian conservatives who saw it as a nice antidote to the permissive society?
It depends which multiculturalism you mean.
The original Multiculturalism espoused something like Separate Development (try that in Afrikaans) - people would live their own culture, not *diluting* it by doing things like learning English.
This was defended by claiming that anyone against it was against the idea of people from multiple original cultures living in the same country.
OK, as nothing too world-shaking is happening today, here is a list of my ten biggest recent wrong political predictions, in no particular order:
1. Remain would edge the referendum 2. the current government would get a 6 month-1 year honeymoon in the polls 3. we'd have got rid of Northern Ireland by now 4. Kamala 24 by the narrowest of margins 5. Boris would last a full term 6. the Ukraine war would be over by now 7. UK GE 2024 vote shares. I got the margin between Lab and Con almost exactly right, but grossly overestimated the proportion of the vote the top two would get and underestimated Reform's share. I got the GE 2019 shares pretty accurate though. 8. Truss would be more competent than she was 9. Cameron would win an absolute majority in 2010 (I remember meeting Kwasi Kwarteng just before the election and telling him that. He disagreed with me and turned out to be right) 10. Labour would be the largest party in a hung Parliament in 2015
I find auditing oneself in this way a good means of curbing the arrogance that can build up if you only remember your triumphs. I don't think there's a common thread there, and I've made plenty of accurate predictions to offset against them, but that's why, though I post on this site from time to time, I don't engage in the activity from which it gets its name ...
Nothing happening? The day after Starmer personally hailed a taxi to Roedean for a convicted sex pest.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
They think that the banks would fund more welfarism.
What they would get is the taxpayer funding higher interest payments to the banks.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
SFAICS party members of all parties, now membership is so small, are mostly people who cannot see a balanced picture of what governance and the nationwide political process actually is. It's full of people who believe it is good to do X, Y and Z, and have no interest either in constraints A, B and C, or the rival claims of interests F, G and H.
Noting this, normal people don't join.
Another blind spot, shared by governments - this one is egregious - and membership is that ordinary people are infinitely more interested in ordinary competence from government than in 'change'. Secretly most people don't like change.
By competence I mean answering the phone, being easily contactable, not letting prisoners escape, timely justice, getting it right first time, not giving billions in welfare/contracts to frauds, police turning up when you call once every 20 years, not having roads that destroy a car's suspension. Boring stuff.
Started well behind square one of course; can’t describe their predecessor as competent, can one.
Of course. If the government (that 45% of the total economy which the state in various guises takes to itself as its responsibility) were as competent as, say, our supermarkets it wouldn't be a blind spot. Bits which are working well (people say passports are an example) should of course be the norm.
What I draw attention to is that it is despite it being a central concern to people, it is explicitly ignored in favour of that which is 'new', 'change', 'fresh initiative', 'infrastructure projects with hard hats for the PM' etc. Running stuff really well should of course be basic. The new government started, as you say, well behind square one. So why is boring competence and the achieving of it not the daily priority for government communications and action?
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
They think that the banks would fund more welfarism.
What they would get is the taxpayer funding higher interest payments to the banks.
Interest payments to foreigners.
Mind you, I had an entertaining conversation with a Corbynite the other day. His idea was that the banks would be forced to buy government debt at a price set by the government. So infinite borrowing would work….
"RFK Jr to urge Americans to eat more saturated fats, alarming health experts Guidance from health and human services secretary contradicts decades of dietary recommendations"
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
Geoff Hoon was always called Buff by the army.
My allusion to this over an hour ago (Geoff was given a buff) was clearly too subtle
I disagree with Jacob here, there is no point paying a fortune for elections for district and county councillors next year when many of them are to be made redundant the following year when the new unitary councils in those counties are created.
I have some sympathy with Jacob's desire for an English Parliament though which he expresses in that video with the same devolved powers as the Senedd and Stormont even if not quite as many as Holyrood has
I disagree with Jacob here, there is no point paying a fortune for elections for district and county councillors next year when many of them are to be made redundant the following year when the new unitary councils in those counties are created.
I have some sympathy with Jacob's desire for an English Parliament though which he expresses in that video
JRM quotes (from the Times aiui) a number of council leaders worried about the possibility of Reform winners. He then dilutes the point by talking about an extra year's expenses.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
Caerphilly was the perfect illustration of the important difference between the median and the mode. Reform is the modal vote and would expect to win under FPTP because they have more supporters than anyone else. Unfortunately for Reform most people hate them, so the median voter was Plaid in this case.
The median voter in Caerphilly voted for Corbyn even in 2019 when Boris won a landslide UK wide
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
Geoff Hoon was always called Buff by the army.
My allusion to this over an hour ago (Geoff was given a buff) was clearly too subtle
Apologies, just catching up the thread after a busy morning of drinking coffee and eating cake.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
No, the modal voter is voting Reform,
If we arrange people on a left-right scale, Reform get 29%, then Tories get 18%, so we’re 47% along. Next come the LibDems maybe, so the median voter is LibDem.
Latest FON poll has Tories and Reform on 49% combined in UK, so almost certainly over 50% in England alone.
On days like these, in order to keep a thread of faith one has to remind oneself of what went on between 2019 and 2024.
I had a blacklist of utter roasters I despised through the Blair years. My favourite (least favourite) was Geoff Hoon. Time to remake that list. The hateful Lucy Powell and Reeves are first and second so far. Starmer might be third.
Geoff Hoon was always called Buff by the army.
My allusion to this over an hour ago (Geoff was given a buff) was clearly too subtle
Much too subtle. I could see there was an allusion there but I miss lots of allusions being lacking in the necessary cultural background.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
No, the modal voter is voting Reform,
If we arrange people on a left-right scale, Reform get 29%, then Tories get 18%, so we’re 47% along. Next come the LibDems maybe, so the median voter is LibDem.
Latest FON poll has Tories and Reform on 49% combined in UK, so almost certainly over 50% in England alone.
That’s just standard, when councils are reorganised into new ones.
To be fair to Mogg - and I feel terrible even saying that - at the moment I am very far from confident that these unitarisation gigs will be going ahead on time. In Gloucestershire they still haven't agreed on a set of proposals for full consultation. I think Staffordshire hasn't even got that far.
So he does have a point about elections being postponed.
Everyone blames the left for multiculturalism but what about all the Christian conservatives who saw it as a nice antidote to the permissive society?
Did they? Christian conservatives generally want tight immigration controls and hard right 'Unite the Kingdom' types are basically white nationalists who only use Christianity as a means of differentiating themselves from Islam
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
It's federal immunity in the sense that Trump will pardon any ICE officer.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
SFAICS party members of all parties, now membership is so small, are mostly people who cannot see a balanced picture of what governance and the nationwide political process actually is. It's full of people who believe it is good to do X, Y and Z, and have no interest either in constraints A, B and C, or the rival claims of interests F, G and H.
Noting this, normal people don't join.
Another blind spot, shared by governments - this one is egregious - and membership is that ordinary people are infinitely more interested in ordinary competence from government than in 'change'. Secretly most people don't like change.
By competence I mean answering the phone, being easily contactable, not letting prisoners escape, timely justice, getting it right first time, not giving billions in welfare/contracts to frauds, police turning up when you call once every 20 years, not having roads that destroy a car's suspension. Boring stuff.
I question that first paragraph a little. Party membership is now - based on an AI query which to my eye used reputable sources such as Commons Library reports - higher than at any time since the late 1990s. The real nadir was 2005-2014.
Here's my piccie quota, and a link to the interactive exhibit. We can say "1 million total is too small", but it's a generation long trend. I can spot a couple of numbers which are off (eg LDs about 20k too low), but it's not too wrong afaics.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
Yes. The Labour membership have voted for the Burnham/Powell economic insanity. This is a BIG moment.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
Yes and that will soon filter through to the leadership as Starmer and Reeves won't get a budget through without increased taxes on higher earners and the wealthy to fund higher spending. As Labour MP rebels forced them to abandon welfare spending cuts.
We are back to 2010 where the only parties representing relatively small government are the Tories and LDs (albeit the social democrat wing of the LDs are more sympathetic to the Burnham wing of Labour or even Polanski and the Greens than Davey and the Orange Book wing of the LDs as they mistrusted Cameron, Osborne and Clegg with their hearts really with Ed Miliband)
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
Don't they?
In my recollection American Police have general immunity in the conduct of their duties, which is a major issue.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.
Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.
Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.
Being the most loved and most hated worked for Mrs Thatcher.
Against a deeply unpopular Labour government in 1979, a hard left leader of the opposition in 1983 and an opposition divided between Labour and the SDP Alliance in 1983 and 1987.
Kinnock would probably have beaten Thatcher in 1992 though, only the more centrist Major got the Conservatives the win in 1992 having also scrapped Thatcher’s poll tax
Was Major perceived as centrist compared to Mrs Thatcher in 1992?
Checking, the last round of voting when he became leader was between Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd, and John Major.
Of those three was John Major not the "not wet" one on the Right, being iirc the Chief Secretary to the Treasury?
Polls in 1990 had both Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock but Thatcher trailing Kinnock.
Major was able to become PM therefore with the votes of Thatcher loyalists and MPs who wanted rid of Thatcher to save their seats but hated Heseltine and his uber Europhile views.
By 1995 though many of the Thatcherites had switched to Redwood when he challenged Major to be Conservative leader and the Lady was known to be sympathetic to the Vulcan (but really wanted Portillo as Thatcher's heir had he activated his phonelines and stood) while Major ironically had gained the backing of Heseltine's and Hurd's former backers to stop Redwood
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
Don't they?
In my recollection American Police have general immunity in the conduct of their duties, which is a major issue.
I imagine ICE might have similar.
For USA police I believe it is called "Qualified Immunity", which can be denied in Court Cases.
But it's all grey area between state / federal / executive and there are something like 15k separated constabularies, plus a number of Federal Services. And then institutional failure to supervise, enforce on over reach etc.
Plus all the stuff Trump is doing under so-called "emergency" situations he has pulled out of his backside, and many of which are under legal challenge.
I've been watching a bit from a channel called "The Civil Rights Lawyer", which is quite analytical rather than finger jabby as auditors etc. Really he's documenting basic professional and organisational failures rather than the authoritarian state stuff Trump is doing.
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
Don't they?
In my recollection American Police have general immunity in the conduct of their duties, which is a major issue.
I imagine ICE might have similar.
I think they have qualified immunity, which means they cannot be individually sued by individuals for an act committed on duty.
They do not have immunity from criminal prosecution if they break the law. Exhibit A - the officer who murdered George Floyd.
So if an ICE unit take somebody who should not be taken, without the lawful authority of the state governor or a judge, I think they would still be up before a judge on a charge of kidnapping.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
No, the modal voter is voting Reform,
If we arrange people on a left-right scale, Reform get 29%, then Tories get 18%, so we’re 47% along. Next come the LibDems maybe, so the median voter is LibDem.
Latest FON poll has Tories and Reform on 49% combined in UK, so almost certainly over 50% in England alone.
They will cancel each other out... the next GE could be even less proportional than 2024.
Perhaps but it is possible the Tories and Reform could win a majority of seats combined in England at least but Labour hobbles home, badly bruised, with most seats in a hung parliament and propped up by the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.
Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.
Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.
Being the most loved and most hated worked for Mrs Thatcher.
Against a deeply unpopular Labour government in 1979, a hard left leader of the opposition in 1983 and an opposition divided between Labour and the SDP Alliance in 1983 and 1987.
Kinnock would probably have beaten Thatcher in 1992 though, only the more centrist Major got the Conservatives the win in 1992 having also scrapped Thatcher’s poll tax
Was Major perceived as centrist compared to Mrs Thatcher in 1992?
Checking, the last round of voting when he became leader was between Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd, and John Major.
Of those three was John Major not the "not wet" one on the Right, being iirc the Chief Secretary to the Treasury?
Polls in 1990 had both Major and Heseltine beating Kinnock but Thatcher trailing Kinnock.
Major was able to become PM therefore with the votes of Thatcher loyalists and MPs who wanted rid of Thatcher to save their seats but hated Heseltine and his uber Europhile views.
By 1995 though many of the Thatcherites had switched to Redwood when he challenged Major to be Conservative leader and the Lady was known to be sympathetic to the Vulcan (but really wanted Portillo as Thatcher's heir had he activated his phonelines and stood) while Major ironically had gained the backing of Heseltine's and Hurd's former backers to stop Redwood
Amazing to think that the euro-sceptics believed they could get anywhere under Spock. Ultimately, of course, they needed the carpet-bagger and trickster Boris to deliver their dreams (such as they turned out to be).
That’s just standard, when councils are reorganised into new ones.
To be fair to Mogg - and I feel terrible even saying that - at the moment I am very far from confident that these unitarisation gigs will be going ahead on time. In Gloucestershire they still haven't agreed on a set of proposals for full consultation. I think Staffordshire hasn't even got that far.
So he does have a point about elections being postponed.
The first Mayoral elections for the combined authorities are due next year, with the first elections for the unitaries due in 2027 for shadow authorities taking office in 2028 at which point the county and district councils in those counties will be scrapped
That’s just standard, when councils are reorganised into new ones.
To be fair to Mogg - and I feel terrible even saying that - at the moment I am very far from confident that these unitarisation gigs will be going ahead on time. In Gloucestershire they still haven't agreed on a set of proposals for full consultation. I think Staffordshire hasn't even got that far.
So he does have a point about elections being postponed.
The first Mayoral elections for the combined authorities are due next year, with the first elections for the unitaries due in 2027 for shadow authorities taking office in 2028 at which point the county and district councils in those counties will be scrapped
Yes, I know.
I'm saying I think the odds are that those deadlines will not be met.
The whole process is going more slowly and reluctantly than a Cummings admission of wrongdoing.
This, of course, is another lie - they have no such immunity - but it is a very dangerous one.
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony." https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
Don't they?
In my recollection American Police have general immunity in the conduct of their duties, which is a major issue.
I imagine ICE might have similar.
I think they have qualified immunity, which means they cannot be individually sued by individuals for an act committed on duty.
They do not have immunity from criminal prosecution if they break the law. Exhibit A - the officer who murdered George Floyd.
So if an ICE unit take somebody who should not be taken, without the lawful authority of the state governor or a judge, I think they would still be up before a judge on a charge of kidnapping.
Plus there is law preventing the State or Federal authorities from being sued, which makes it difficult to hold eg senior management or politicians to account. That's a kind of sovereign immunity.
That’s just standard, when councils are reorganised into new ones.
To be fair to Mogg - and I feel terrible even saying that - at the moment I am very far from confident that these unitarisation gigs will be going ahead on time. In Gloucestershire they still haven't agreed on a set of proposals for full consultation. I think Staffordshire hasn't even got that far.
So he does have a point about elections being postponed.
The first Mayoral elections for the combined authorities are due next year, with the first elections for the unitaries due in 2027 for shadow authorities taking office in 2028 at which point the county and district councils in those counties will be scrapped
Yes, I know.
I'm saying I think the odds are that those deadlines will not be met.
The whole process is going more slowly and reluctantly than a Cummings admission of wrongdoing.
The Mayoral elections are certainly taking place next spring, parties have already started selecting their candidates.
It is possible the new unitary boundaries won't be ready until 2028 I suppose but even then electing county and district councillors for just a 2 year term before many of them are made redundant unless they can get elected to the smaller number of seats available on the new unitary councils is still a waste of taxpayer funds in my view
That’s just standard, when councils are reorganised into new ones.
To be fair to Mogg - and I feel terrible even saying that - at the moment I am very far from confident that these unitarisation gigs will be going ahead on time. In Gloucestershire they still haven't agreed on a set of proposals for full consultation. I think Staffordshire hasn't even got that far.
So he does have a point about elections being postponed.
The first Mayoral elections for the combined authorities are due next year, with the first elections for the unitaries due in 2027 for shadow authorities taking office in 2028 at which point the county and district councils in those counties will be scrapped
Yes, I know.
I'm saying I think the odds are that those deadlines will not be met.
The whole process is going more slowly and reluctantly than a Cummings admission of wrongdoing.
The Mayoral elections are certainly taking place next spring, parties have already started selecting their candidates.
It is possible the new unitary boundaries won't be ready until 2028 I suppose but even then electing county and district councillors for just a 2 year term before many of them are made redundant unless they can get elected to the smaller number of seats available on the new unitary councils is still a waste of taxpayer funds in my view
I'm looking at the current lot and thinking it's a waste to keep them in post.
Then I look at the likely replacements and that argument loses all its force.
I just don't think councillors should be in place for six, seven, even eight years unless there's a genuine emergency e.g, a war. A six to twelve month extension is understandable. Two or three years is not.
Edit - I mean, I hate myself for even thinking Mogg has a point, but actually here he does.
Hmm, he's missed a couple of points. The drawings were pretty good at portraying their subjects, especially the aircraft and vehicles - whereas the artists on some others couldn't even draw a convincing cube. And even museums - or one anyway - are cooperating with Commando these days, as I noticed the other day. Though the Tank Museum also has a decent range of Tank Girl for the millennials.
Yes Commando Book artwork was always pretty good in a vivid way. Links to them keep popping up on FB which I guess indicates my interests. The most recent one showed an accurately depicted Valentine firing its pop gun at a similarly recognisable Tiger I in the Western desert which I’m guessing ends with British pluck prevailing. Probably a more likely encounter in Russia than N.Africa I think.
Edit: ha, that’s exactly the cover I was thinking about in your link!
Would I think be perfectly correct for N Africa, now you mention it (at least geographically - can't say if any such battle happened). Perhaps not so much 8th Army but First Army, which did have them in Algeria etc. under Torch, vs the Tiger detachment in Tunisia. THis sort of era, though the film is about the OQF 17 pdr - a very nice period piece anyway.
Pathetic turnout but another bad day for Starmer as Labour members back Burnham’s preferred candidate Lucy Powell over his preferred candidate Bridget Philippson
No evidence that Starmer preferred either of them. None of this makes a difference to Starmer's standing. In some ways things are looking up for him. Farage is looking sleazy and flakey and Kemi is beyond doubt a no-hoper.
So a perfect time for a Starmer reset which he needs and of all the leaders he's the one who holds the stage
How many resets does a Prime Minister need in a week?
Just when Starmer demonstrates his facile incompetence, Boris Johnson rocks up to the COVID Inquiry as a reminder that things could be even worse.
I expect the median voter would now bring back Boris as PM tomorrow. Heck, I expect the median voter would even bring back Rishi as PM tomorrow now
Starmer and Sunak are considered two cheeks of the same useless arse, and the median voter does not want a Johnson redux. You are wishcasting.
The median voter is now voting Reform
To an extent you have me there. But I would equally assume given the choice of Johnson or Brave Sir Nigel, Farage takes it by a country mile.
Caerphilly might question your Reform voting logic.
Caerphilly was fascinating. It does completely change the Reform narrative in my mind. Being the most popular party might turn out to be meaningless if you are also the most hated party. And Reform certainly sit in that strange spot in the political Venn Diagram right now.
Nice to see you around Richard.
What do they think about Rufford Ford down your way? And how are you finding your local Reform UK Councillors?
(I'm no fan, especially of the £75k official Council budget for flag-wagging, but they seem to me to be on 2 out of 10 rather than Kent's 0.5 out of 10.)
Afternoon old chap. Sorry not been around much. Driving back and forth to Aberdeen from Lincolnshire every week is taking its toll.
Rufford Ford is using a sledge hammer to crack a nut. There were plenty of ways they could have dealt with it rather than closing it and I hope the County Council see some sense (I know that is a vain hope) and open it again. There are plenty of other ways they could deal with the anti-social behaviour and dangerous driving.
Reform in Lincolnshire seeme to have been fairly quiet compared to other counties. Something for which I am grateful. I am sure idiocy will appear at some point but there is nothing obvious yet that is impacting us on a day to day basis. I did agree with them scrapping the Flood and Water Management Scrutiny Committee and moving the powers to the Environment committee. the FWMSC was supposed to hold the water companies and environment agency to account but it met in private so public involvement was very difficult and it doesn't really seem to have achieved much in terms of getting improvements out of Anglian Water or the EA.
I agree that the flag stuff in Nottinghamshire is a pointless waste of money but at the same time they have abandoned the move away from the old offices which seems sensible given the new ones are not fit for purpose.
We shall see how things develop. I want them to fall over... just not in my county
Comments
On ordinary logic the LDs should be well placed to win about 450 seats. That they are not is part of the enduring fascination of UK, and especially English, politics.
There are lots of majorities. The majority don't like Reform. Ditto don't like the government. Ditto don't like Tories. Ditto won't vote LD.
It's a bit of a problem
As for 2029, let's suppose the top two are Labour and Reform.
It's obvious which way the Lib Dems jump.
It's pretty clear which way the Conservative hierarchy jump, and they will probably take most of their remaining support with them.
The huge unknown is what those to the left of Labour do. When push comes to shove, how many will back Labour to oppose Reform and how many won't?
Stephen Miller on Fox threatens to arrest JB Pritzker for "seditious conspiracy" and says, "to all ICE officers: you have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. And anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop or obstruct you is committing a felony."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1981816700627554547
Does Kemi still see ICE as a model ?
The glorious patriotism of Commando comics
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/24/the-commando-comics-miracle
Trouble is that, if we all vote like that, the system breaks down. The fracturing of the party system is both a consequence and a cause of that.
MOde = Most Often
MEdian = The one in the MiddlE
Mean = The average one. Because average people are mean.
Economic insanity is where the Labour membership and back bench MPs now are, this is what the Labour Party is telling the UK electorate this morning.
Except that's fascist immunity, not federal.
I suppose we're still 'sort of' a free country.
https://tankmuseumshop.org/products/commando-presents-the-tank-collection
I remain slightly mystified that Reform doesn't spend more time aiming for that sweet spot however. It is an open goal.
https://tankmuseumshop.org/products/commando-presents-cadman?srsltid=AfmBOor23eb57ojG6sQR2tZGASqV3ya_Xk8-BZv3hD5PHfUVD9fsCumV
Meanwhile LBC's Simon Marks (especially his 10 minute summary each Friday) and numerous American outlets say it how it is. Washington Week (each Friday/Saturday) is an extraordinary combination of saying it how it is and civilized discourse, Two recent links here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM0CW6Enu5g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID81mVm6ATM
My other lukewarm take is that this wasn't the predicted Lucy Powell landslide. Bridget Phillipson's position is probably strengthened rather than weakened now.
Edit: ha, that’s exactly the cover I was thinking about in your link!
Noting this, normal people don't join.
Another blind spot, shared by governments - this one is egregious - and membership is that ordinary people are infinitely more interested in ordinary competence from government than in 'change'. Secretly most people don't like change.
By competence I mean answering the phone, being easily contactable, not letting prisoners escape, timely justice, getting it right first time, not giving billions in welfare/contracts to frauds, police turning up when you call once every 20 years, not having roads that destroy a car's suspension. Boring stuff.
Ignore what he says about the right, which, as he once admitted, he can't really empathise with and so doesn't understand. But his thoughts about the centre and the left are interesting and thought-provoking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7jA3PLbBYM
The original Multiculturalism espoused something like Separate Development (try that in Afrikaans) - people would live their own culture, not *diluting* it by doing things like learning English.
This was defended by claiming that anyone against it was against the idea of people from multiple original cultures living in the same country.
What they would get is the taxpayer funding higher interest payments to the banks.
What I draw attention to is that it is despite it being a central concern to people, it is explicitly ignored in favour of that which is 'new', 'change', 'fresh initiative', 'infrastructure projects with hard hats for the PM' etc. Running stuff really well should of course be basic. The new government started, as you say, well behind square one. So why is boring competence and the achieving of it not the daily priority for government communications and action?
Mind you, I had an entertaining conversation with a Corbynite the other day. His idea was that the banks would be forced to buy government debt at a price set by the government. So infinite borrowing would work….
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/25/rfk-jr-saturated-fats
"RFK Jr to urge Americans to eat more saturated fats, alarming health experts
Guidance from health and human services secretary contradicts decades of dietary recommendations"
https://x.com/mikeysmith/status/1982064101669892584
Donald TrumpKeir Starmerhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB1JAlZJqRE
I have some sympathy with Jacob's desire for an English Parliament though which he expresses in that video with the same devolved powers as the Senedd and Stormont even if not quite as many as Holyrood has
Latest More in Common poll has Tories and Reform on 50% combined in UK, so a majority even UK wide once you add DUP and TUV as well
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
So he does have a point about elections being postponed.
Here's my piccie quota, and a link to the interactive exhibit. We can say "1 million total is too small", but it's a generation long trend. I can spot a couple of numbers which are off (eg LDs about 20k too low), but it's not too wrong afaics.
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/a69f1885-9695-43c4-a2ee-da8704659729
We are back to 2010 where the only parties representing relatively small government are the Tories and LDs (albeit the social democrat wing of the LDs are more sympathetic to the Burnham wing of Labour or even Polanski and the Greens than Davey and the Orange Book wing of the LDs as they mistrusted Cameron, Osborne and Clegg with their hearts really with Ed Miliband)
In my recollection American Police have general immunity in the conduct of their duties, which is a major issue.
I imagine ICE might have similar.
Major was able to become PM therefore with the votes of Thatcher loyalists and MPs who wanted rid of Thatcher to save their seats but hated Heseltine and his uber Europhile views.
By 1995 though many of the Thatcherites had switched to Redwood when he challenged Major to be Conservative leader and the Lady was known to be sympathetic to the Vulcan (but really wanted Portillo as Thatcher's heir had he activated his phonelines and stood) while Major ironically had gained the backing of Heseltine's and Hurd's former backers to stop Redwood
But it's all grey area between state / federal / executive and there are something like 15k separated constabularies, plus a number of Federal Services. And then institutional failure to supervise, enforce on over reach etc.
Plus all the stuff Trump is doing under so-called "emergency" situations he has pulled out of his backside, and many of which are under legal challenge.
I've been watching a bit from a channel called "The Civil Rights Lawyer", which is quite analytical rather than finger jabby as auditors etc. Really he's documenting basic professional and organisational failures rather than the authoritarian state stuff Trump is doing.
Here's a fairly blatant one:
Cops Arrest Paraplegic in Wheelchair for "Kicking Down" Woman's Door and Fleeing "On Foot"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4D5V19zqFc
They do not have immunity from criminal prosecution if they break the law. Exhibit A - the officer who murdered George Floyd.
So if an ICE unit take somebody who should not be taken, without the lawful authority of the state governor or a judge, I think they would still be up before a judge on a charge of kidnapping.
If she is not in jail and in the unlikely event there are future elections she should just f*** off!
I'm saying I think the odds are that those deadlines will not be met.
The whole process is going more slowly and reluctantly than a Cummings admission of wrongdoing.
It's a shame this gaslighting knob keeps being given a platform.
It is possible the new unitary boundaries won't be ready until 2028 I suppose but even then electing county and district councillors for just a 2 year term before many of them are made redundant unless they can get elected to the smaller number of seats available on the new unitary councils is still a waste of taxpayer funds in my view
BREAKING: Independent candidate Catherine Connolly is set to become Ireland's next president after her rival, Heather Humphreys, conceded.
Then I look at the likely replacements and that argument loses all its force.
I just don't think councillors should be in place for six, seven, even eight years unless there's a genuine emergency e.g, a war. A six to twelve month extension is understandable. Two or three years is not.
Edit - I mean, I hate myself for even thinking Mogg has a point, but actually here he does.
https://film.iwmcollections.org.uk/record/2372?fbclid=IwAR3IpeKEohgVCBzjlRRbEei_pm3ooLavAQQKH2R4_TXE928iOXPQECC0iPU
Which reinforces the point about the Commando comics being more visually accurate.
Now off to move a shelf to fit my Win 11 machine into the study.
Rufford Ford is using a sledge hammer to crack a nut. There were plenty of ways they could have dealt with it rather than closing it and I hope the County Council see some sense (I know that is a vain hope) and open it again. There are plenty of other ways they could deal with the anti-social behaviour and dangerous driving.
Reform in Lincolnshire seeme to have been fairly quiet compared to other counties. Something for which I am grateful. I am sure idiocy will appear at some point but there is nothing obvious yet that is impacting us on a day to day basis. I did agree with them scrapping the Flood and Water Management Scrutiny Committee and moving the powers to the Environment committee. the FWMSC was supposed to hold the water companies and environment agency to account but it met in private so public involvement was very difficult and it doesn't really seem to have achieved much in terms of getting improvements out of Anglian Water or the EA.
I agree that the flag stuff in Nottinghamshire is a pointless waste of money but at the same time they have abandoned the move away from the old offices which seems sensible given the new ones are not fit for purpose.
We shall see how things develop. I want them to fall over... just not in my county