Once again Reform voters show they are massive outliers – politicalbetting.com
Once again Reform voters show they are massive outliers – politicalbetting.com
A year on, how do Britons think the legal system has treated those who took part in the 2024 riots?Fairly: 41%Unfairly: 26%By 2024 voteLabour: 59% fairlyLib Dem: 44%Conservative: 44%Reform UK: 16% yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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NEWS: JD Vance will meet David Lammy on Friday at Chevening, the foreign secretary's grace and favour country house in Kent. They will be joined by their families as the Vances start their British vacation, per sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rising_Sun_(Crichton_novel)
Farage will deal with it by decrying them as an unrepresentative minority.
And he will get away with it because the media love him.
It’s from the genre of “Japan takes over the world” books.
People extrapolated Japanese growth as inevitable and forever. Hence by lunchtime tomorrow they will run the entire world.
They also credited them with brilliant long term planning - taking over whole industries by undercutting the West with cheaper products.
A big theme is Westerners who sell out to the Japanese for immediate gain.
Remind you of anything?
IIRC they’ve both said pretty terrible things about each other in the past, politically if not personally.
The point is that the research setup gave them the freedom to pursue promising biological targets, unconstrained by market analysis. And it was very generously funded.
In-house was necessary to that, but that particular policy of research freedom on that scale was (and is) pretty rare in the industry.
There's no reason at all why in-house in general should be automatically better than buying in research - and indeed it isn't.
If you look at the number of NCEs going into the clinic today, Europe and the UK's share has fallen massively compared with the US and China.
We simply don't have the scale of market funding for, or numbers of independent biotech companies coming up with novel stuff that they have. Big Pharma cutting back on research has compounded that disparity.
And David Lammy is non-white** and undoubtedly one of the Woke, although hardly one of the Wokest.
He's also an Anglican and Vance is a rather esoteric Catholic.
So they are going to have in common - what, exactly?
*After Tristram Hunt, former MP for Stoke Central and all round Tristram.
**Yes, I know Mrs Vance is also non-white. She is also not African.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1tAXzhwGaY
I still feel sorry for the Lammys...
It's an odd relationship, but I get the impression it's not entirely fiction.
Lammy read law at Harvard and Vance read law at Yale.
If you want one of his better books, then Andromeda Strain or Jurassic Park are better.
It makes no difference at all to Farage. If he explicitly supported white violence almost no-one would vote for him and he wouldn't appear on the telly all the time. He knows exactly where to draw the line to keep on board the fairly dim mob together with the Goodwins and Leons who, of course, fully comprehend the intellectual rationale behind the fairly dim mob without, of course, wishing to set fire to people themselves. Together with those who don't follow this much but feel it's time for a change from one set of evasive liars to another he has a chance of winning as long as the other parties continue to offer so little.
https://x.com/bhx_official/status/1953088880741114013
Looks like an aircraft landed wheels-up, possibly having departed BHX and suffered some sort of landing gear issue after takeoff.
Pictures show stranded but intact propellor-driven aircraft stuck on the runway, they’ll need a crane of some sort to move it clear.
Lots of incoming flights diverted and diverting. AIUI no-one injured.
One of his strengths as a politician is knowing where to draw the line in polite society. You can be opposed to immigration without taking it out on law-abiding immigrants, be opposed to criminality without demonising large groups of people.
Can we have a “peaceful demo” to demand that the police officer *does* call them fascists?
Who brings the cheap lager and the fireworks?
Quite wrongheaded - an example of EXTRAPOLATION gone mad.
The latter two are certainly better.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1953096522758750464
More importantly, during the 2011 riots academics were at pains to understand what were the underlying causes in the face of substantial public opinion which dismissed the rioters as mindless thugs (tl/dr: they weren't).
A good example amongst several is https://www.theguardian.com/uk/interactive/2011/dec/14/reading-the-riots-investigating-england-s-summer-of-disorder-full-report
The report focuses on the marginalisation of eg the local black communities in the riot-hit areas and the behaviour of the police as being contributory factors and rightly so imo.
Unaccountably there seem to have been no analogous attempts to "understand" the 2024 riots in a similarly rigorous academic fashion.
I even emailed one of the co-authors to ask if they would be conducting such an exercise into these riots and he said (or implied or I paraphrase) - no they were racist thugs.
Though having said that, ISTR that the real name of Mutley McLad - lead singer of the Macc Lads - is Tristram O'Neill.
I can confirm I wasn’t mugged and I am now on the way back home.
Also noted that the water temperature on the north coast seems perceptibly warmer than that on the south coast. My local AI tool confirms that this is probably correct: the north coast is more subject to Atlantic currents; the south is more sheltered.
This article examines different theoretical explanations for rioting and crowd disorder drawing on psychological, sociological and political perspectives. The role of the law and in particular, police practice in tackling and exacerbating crowd violence are explored with a critical eye on the latest police science research. Both psychological motivations of rioters and systemic intersectional inequalities are considered together in this piece to comprehensively account for the reasons why people choose to riot. The adequacy of theoretical explanations and recommendations for how future riots might be avoided are considered in relation to the English riots of August 2011 and August 2024.
The BBC had an expert on to ask about her views. She has a Nobel prize in the subject and couldn't stop shaking her head at his lucacy. It reminded me of Dara O'Briain doing a comedy routine about the BBC bringing on a real dentist to compare with a fake one. "I take a rock and swing it against my teeth. Gets rid of the pain straight away. No teeth, no dental pain."
I felt sorry for the scientist, but this was no joke. Like Trump, this Kennedy bloke was making things up as he went along and the BBC should never be taking this man seriously. I want my licence fee back for this year.
https://x.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1953064335317606566
Once a jolly bag man ...
How I uncovered a network of new crimes involving Nigel Farage's most loyal financier.
https://thestateofuk.substack.com/p/the-crimes-behind-reform
(Not a rabbit hole I have peered down.)
https://x.com/SpecCoffeeHouse/status/1953116448441672072
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1953114414422376622
Of course it’s in their own interest to buy cheap oil, which is why those who buy it are getting sanctioned by the US.
(Phone survived again. Getting silly now how often that happens)
Park up on the benches outside Sam’s (the one resteraunt) before they open - the inside gets booked up, the benches are first come first served.
The pub does ok food and good beer.
Well worth renting a paddle board (if you have the skill) to explore the caves to the left of the beach….
You can walk there along the costal path from Par - something worth doing, by itself, for the scenery.
https://www.independent.co.uk/extras/indybest/food-drink/m-and-s-strawberry-sandwiches-b2803010.html
I wonder how soon we will look back at the Trump regime and simply shake our heads.
They had to send Dave to Washington to persuade the GOP to vote for more funding for Ukraine.
Is the alleged £41bn finance gap in the Govt single year or rest of Parliament (ie 4 years)?
I'm seeing articles written with both assumptions, and I can't find any articles linking to the source, that is the NIESR report.
https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-economic-outlook-chancellors-trilemma?type=uk-economic-outlook&hss_channel=tw-870591852
If Biden had had any sense (and he didn't, not by the end at least), he should have issued a flurry of Executive Order around tariffs and the like, above the Republican Congress, to ensure that the Supreme Court struck him down.
It's Trump ignoring or stretching the law again, by "creative" use of - here - the "1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)". I think.
Biden did not do that afaik.
Details: https://verfassungsblog.de/trump-tariffs-legal-ieepa/
Better still travel back in time to two years ago and support Ukraine when it would have made even more difference, probably a decisive one on the battlefield.
Still better dangerously late than absolutely never I suppose.
And definitely better quarter measures than absolutely nothing.
I’m sure that raising the additional rate from 47% to 52% will raise all that’s required, and definitely not fall down the back of the Laffer curve.
Not seen anything about the 2024 riots specifically.
We should have had 3p on base rate income tax added last year to reverse Hunt’s uncosted (beyond happiest and happy paths) NI cuts
I expect we will see some interesting changes in VAT as well (with making tax digital it would make sense to reduce the VAT registration threshold to £30,000).
For a little research, it seems 4,105 people were arrested following the August 2011 riots and of those 40% were white and 39% black. 46% were between 18-24 so it was a riot of the young and focused on looting of shops and retail parks (remember them?).
I remember the calls for tough sentences and no leniency in the aftermath of the disturbances with courts running through the weekend to clear the backlog. It didn't seem quite the same after Southport to be honest probably because we all knew the prisons were full to overflowing thanks to 14 years of Conservative neglect.
Lammy is a Harvard-educated lawyer. Vance is a Yale-educated lawyer.
They do different things: obviously the weapons help Ukraine fight; but the sanctions significantly hinder Russia's ability to prosecute the war. Sanctions will not stop them from doing something they really want to do, but they can make it much more expensive to do, and to make it take longer. That is very useful.
That window has now closed, with the government instead choosing a load of tinkering which cost a whole load of political capital in exchange for very little extra revenue.
And now there’s £50bn or so to find somewhere
Oh well. Cheerio Rach
None of us have sufficient info to know whether the unending containment approach was right or wrong. Just as now, none of us know whether Trump using all instruments of state to try and force a peace on current lines is right or wrong. The quiet nuclear hum has returned in the last few days though hasn’t it. I haven’t really heard it in my head since 2022.
https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-economic-outlook-chancellors-trilemma
Good for NOTA – Reform & Your.
It's interesting to note the NIESR reference to housing costs - rents are rising well above inflation and as the report points out that impacts on lower income (not exclusively) individuals and families.
I don't know if this is landlords trying to gouge tenants or simply passing on their increases but it's a big factor.
And some safeguards on who we end up getting:
...
5. The United Kingdom shall be able to open and close the route when it deems it
necessary, taking into account the principle of balance between admissions and
readmissions set in Article 1 paragraph 3 and France’s obligations in Article 4.
6. For the avoidance of any doubt (and without prejudice to other criteria in the
Immigration Rules), this route shall exclude those who pose a national security or
public order risk to the United Kingdom, those that have previously been removed
from the United Kingdom and unaccompanied minors.
7. For the avoidance of any doubt, the Parties confirm that the United Kingdom
may reject applications if the numbers of those effectively admitted in accordance
with this Chapter is not balanced with the number of those effectively readmitted
under Chapter II, notwithstanding the provisions in Article 20 aimed at achieving a
balance between those numbers at the time that the Agreement terminates...
The progress of the pilot scheme will be jointly monitored on a regular basis:
...1. The Parties shall cooperate in the application and interpretation of this
Agreement. To this end, a Joint Committee (hereinafter referred to as “the
Committee”) is to be established the tasks of which shall include:
a. to monitor the application of this Agreement in particular its
tantamount objective of balance between the numbers of those
readmitted in accordance with Chapter II and those admitted under
Chapter III;
b. to decide on implementing arrangements necessary for the uniform
application of this Agreement;
c. to have regular exchanges of information on the implementing
arrangements drawn up pursuant to Article 18;
d. to monitor, based on weekly data, the numbers of those readmitted
under Chapter II and those admitted under Chapter III and to decide
upon ways in which to adjust the arrangements to address any
imbalance;
e. to recommend amendments to this Agreement and its Annex;
f. to resolve disputes that may arise regarding the interpretation and
application of this Agreement in accordance with Article 19;
g. to have regular exchanges based on measures the United Kingdom has
implemented to tackle illegal working and strengthened law
enforcement on these measures, to avoid pull factors towards the
United Kingdom...
It's a modest deal, but my own take is that out seems to be a good faith effort on both sides.
If it goes smoothly, I would expect it to be greatly expanded.
Apologies to the frothers, who will probably have to wait until next year to see how this develops.
TalkTV"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62jK3Jgxvpk
As you say the opportunity was only there last year and Labour have utterly fluffed taxation and Government spending in a way that I don’t think they will recover from.
STILL: it is worth remembering that while Rockstar will have spend perhaps $100 million on world building (that Genie 3 can largely automate), most of the effort is in building fund story missions that people want to play. That's what differentiates GTA from (say) MindsEye.
Great tech, looks amazing, shockingly lacking in anything that could be described as fun.