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Once again Reform voters show they are massive outliers – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,146

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,747
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just have to remind everyone that John Major was a great deal smarter than he was given credit for.

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1953028976105894349
    In 2016 John Major called out the lies and deception of Vote Leave,

    "I am angry at the way the British people are being misled. This is much more important than a general election. This referendum will affect people, their livelihoods, their future, for a very long time"

    "If they are given honest straight forward facts and they decide to leave, then that is the decision the British people take"

    "But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate, then I regard that as deceitful"

    "That is how I see Vote Leave's campaign"

    "This is a deceitful campaign"

    "And in terms of what they're saying about immigration, they are misleading people to an extraordinary extent"

    "The nonsense we. hear from Vote Leave, about lets get our mojo back and become a great country. We already are a great and successful country, which is why immigrants are coming to us"

    "How will leaving the EU reduce immigration numbers? There are already more people coming into the country from outside the European Union than inside"

    "People are being invited to vote for a pig in a poke"

    I voted remain in the EU referendum just like I voted No in the Indy referendum held here in Scotland. I was gutted at the result of the EU referendum as I recorded on here on the night when the result was declared. But I still to this day remain far more angry at the arrogant leaders of the various leading EU countries who were in charge of understanding and recognising the key important contribution that the UK made to the EU, not least the fact we were one of the only key net financial contributors! And not only did none of them lift a finger to help David Cameron and his government in their campaign to fight for us to remain in the EU, they proceeded to embarrass and try to humiliate him much in the way they did Theresa May when she tried to negociate a soft Brexit!

    I still remain convinced that the optics of the sheer arrogance of those EU leaders behaviour towards Cameron and the UK when he went begging bowl in hand and asked for some small concessions for the UK to prove we were an important and integral part of the EU that he could take home and sell and they very loudly said no did more to swing the EU referendum result than a spending declaration by the Leave campaign on the side of a bus!! The collective EU leaderships position of trying to humilate the UK Government did more to shift the leave result over the line...

    I don't disagree with much of that.
    Both Cameron and the EU were complacent about the risks. Cameron didn't push hard enough, and leaders like Merkel thought only of their shortsighted national interests.

    It was lose/lose, and they ought to have seen that coming.

    This is where we disagree, I think that Cameron was anything but complacent to the risks of an EU referendum leave result during the campaign and he passionately tried to warn his EU counterparts who refused to listen or give him the time of day. Cameron had granted Scotland an Indy referendum and he had already fought for Scotland to remain in the UK during that Indy referendum and he bore the scars from that campaign, but he and the UK Government did everything to support the No campaign, the key EU leaders didn't lift a finger to help him or his government or the Remain campaign, if anything their arrogant refusal to even acknowledge the UK's key contributions to the EU played into the Leave campaign.
    That is in fact not quite true. Cameron banned the EU or its senior figures from taking further part in the campaign even though several of them wanted to, as he recognised this would be counterproductive. The unpopularity of EU officials and leaders was and indeed is part of the problem not part of the solution.

    To this day, Jean-Claude Juncker believes Remain would have won if he could have campaigned for it. Which goes to show he’s not only a drunk and a fascist but also a delusional twat.
    The Remain campaign was very poor, as I posted here at the time. It was all project fear and negativity, with very little positivity or idealism. A marked contrast with the 1975 one, and it couldn't have been worse if significant EU figures had been involved, and might have been a lot better.

    The national malaise that "Britain is Broken" largely stems from the 2016 referendum when people are aked, and there is a strong majority that the decision was wrong. The wrong lesson has been learned and that catastrophic decision looks likely to elevate its chief architect to Downing St. It has destroyed the Tories as a functioning party too. It isn't going to end well.
    Er...no. Given how unpopular they were, bringing them in would probably have altered the result, but to 60/40 leave rather than 52/48.
    We can never know, but it certainly have been a more informed debate. Don't project your own dislikes on the whole electorate.

    A decisive 60/40 split would incidentally have been better than 52/48.

    Brexit is as significant as the Suez crisis as a waypoint in national decline.
    I'm not. I'm telling what the facts are. Juncker was and is a hate figure (and deserves it, frankly).

    Perhaps a decisive split would have been better. But the point I was making was that it shows how delusional and out of touch the EU and its leaders were, that they think they would have altered it the other way.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,468
    ydoethur said:

    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just have to remind everyone that John Major was a great deal smarter than he was given credit for.

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1953028976105894349
    In 2016 John Major called out the lies and deception of Vote Leave,

    "I am angry at the way the British people are being misled. This is much more important than a general election. This referendum will affect people, their livelihoods, their future, for a very long time"

    "If they are given honest straight forward facts and they decide to leave, then that is the decision the British people take"

    "But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate, then I regard that as deceitful"

    "That is how I see Vote Leave's campaign"

    "This is a deceitful campaign"

    "And in terms of what they're saying about immigration, they are misleading people to an extraordinary extent"

    "The nonsense we. hear from Vote Leave, about lets get our mojo back and become a great country. We already are a great and successful country, which is why immigrants are coming to us"

    "How will leaving the EU reduce immigration numbers? There are already more people coming into the country from outside the European Union than inside"

    "People are being invited to vote for a pig in a poke"

    I voted remain in the EU referendum just like I voted No in the Indy referendum held here in Scotland. I was gutted at the result of the EU referendum as I recorded on here on the night when the result was declared. But I still to this day remain far more angry at the arrogant leaders of the various leading EU countries who were in charge of understanding and recognising the key important contribution that the UK made to the EU, not least the fact we were one of the only key net financial contributors! And not only did none of them lift a finger to help David Cameron and his government in their campaign to fight for us to remain in the EU, they proceeded to embarrass and try to humiliate him much in the way they did Theresa May when she tried to negociate a soft Brexit!

    I still remain convinced that the optics of the sheer arrogance of those EU leaders behaviour towards Cameron and the UK when he went begging bowl in hand and asked for some small concessions for the UK to prove we were an important and integral part of the EU that he could take home and sell and they very loudly said no did more to swing the EU referendum result than a spending declaration by the Leave campaign on the side of a bus!! The collective EU leaderships position of trying to humilate the UK Government did more to shift the leave result over the line...

    I don't disagree with much of that.
    Both Cameron and the EU were complacent about the risks. Cameron didn't push hard enough, and leaders like Merkel thought only of their shortsighted national interests.

    It was lose/lose, and they ought to have seen that coming.

    This is where we disagree, I think that Cameron was anything but complacent to the risks of an EU referendum leave result during the campaign and he passionately tried to warn his EU counterparts who refused to listen or give him the time of day. Cameron had granted Scotland an Indy referendum and he had already fought for Scotland to remain in the UK during that Indy referendum and he bore the scars from that campaign, but he and the UK Government did everything to support the No campaign, the key EU leaders didn't lift a finger to help him or his government or the Remain campaign, if anything their arrogant refusal to even acknowledge the UK's key contributions to the EU played into the Leave campaign.
    That is in fact not quite true. Cameron banned the EU or its senior figures from taking further part in the campaign even though several of them wanted to, as he recognised this would be counterproductive. The unpopularity of EU officials and leaders was and indeed is part of the problem not part of the solution.

    To this day, Jean-Claude Juncker believes Remain would have won if he could have campaigned for it. Which goes to show he’s not only a drunk and a fascist but also a delusional twat.
    The problem was never about prominent EU politicians campaigning for us to remain, it was always about Cameron managing to deliver some key even token concessions for one of the only key net contributors to the EU that he could take home and sell to the UK electorate. Those prominent EU politicians wouldn't even give him that and the UK media reported accordingly. Why don't we ever bring up the failures of the key EU leaders to deliver even a token concession package that Cameron and his government could sell at home when it comes to any debate about the EU referendum result here The Brexit campaign is always portrayed as the dishonest bogey man rather than simple being the opposing view to us remaining in the EU, but the EU leaders made it so easy for them by simple displaying their arrogant blatant disregard for the UK as not only a key financial net contributor but also a key military player in NATO.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,354
    fitalass said:

    tlg86 said:

    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just have to remind everyone that John Major was a great deal smarter than he was given credit for.

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1953028976105894349
    In 2016 John Major called out the lies and deception of Vote Leave,

    "I am angry at the way the British people are being misled. This is much more important than a general election. This referendum will affect people, their livelihoods, their future, for a very long time"

    "If they are given honest straight forward facts and they decide to leave, then that is the decision the British people take"

    "But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate, then I regard that as deceitful"

    "That is how I see Vote Leave's campaign"

    "This is a deceitful campaign"

    "And in terms of what they're saying about immigration, they are misleading people to an extraordinary extent"

    "The nonsense we. hear from Vote Leave, about lets get our mojo back and become a great country. We already are a great and successful country, which is why immigrants are coming to us"

    "How will leaving the EU reduce immigration numbers? There are already more people coming into the country from outside the European Union than inside"

    "People are being invited to vote for a pig in a poke"

    I voted remain in the EU referendum just like I voted No in the Indy referendum held here in Scotland. I was gutted at the result of the EU referendum as I recorded on here on the night when the result was declared. But I still to this day remain far more angry at the arrogant leaders of the various leading EU countries who were in charge of understanding and recognising the key important contribution that the UK made to the EU, not least the fact we were one of the only key net financial contributors! And not only did none of them lift a finger to help David Cameron and his government in their campaign to fight for us to remain in the EU, they proceeded to embarrass and try to humiliate him much in the way they did Theresa May when she tried to negociate a soft Brexit!

    I still remain convinced that the optics of the sheer arrogance of those EU leaders behaviour towards Cameron and the UK when he went begging bowl in hand and asked for some small concessions for the UK to prove we were an important and integral part of the EU that he could take home and sell and they very loudly said no did more to swing the EU referendum result than a spending declaration by the Leave campaign on the side of a bus!! The collective EU leaderships position of trying to humilate the UK Government did more to shift the leave result over the line.

    I remember a few years after the EU referendum reading an article where a German Minister admitted they had been really badly advised over the UK EU referendum and they had been told that there was no way the UK would vote to leave and therefore there was absolutely no need set a precedent by making any concessions. And then Covid hit, and to this day I remain glad we set our own investment path when it came to finding a not for profit vaccine and getting that vaccine into arms far easier than the EU ever did despite the way they tried to trash it to their own detriment.
    Sir Craig Oliver’s book is instructive on this point. He said they were going for talks with Merkel knowing that they were utterly pointless. She knew Cameron was going to back Remain so she didn’t have to give him anything.
    Again, just highlights my main point, the ill informed arrogance of the key EU leaders during the EU referendum campaign was breathtakingly stupid.
    There's an interview with Francois Hollande where he says both he and Merkel warned Cameron not to hold referendum. Hollande said that he wouldn't have been certain of winning a referendum in France but Cameron didn't think it was a risk.
    I think that Cameron was either in favour of leaving or very complacent (stupid). Greensill tilts it towards the latter.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,760
    edited August 7
    Another scandal for Labour.
    Homeless minister chucking tenants and hiking rents in a way that (I think) her own bill would outlaw.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,468
    Dopermean said:

    fitalass said:

    tlg86 said:

    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just have to remind everyone that John Major was a great deal smarter than he was given credit for.

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1953028976105894349
    In 2016 John Major called out the lies and deception of Vote Leave,

    "I am angry at the way the British people are being misled. This is much more important than a general election. This referendum will affect people, their livelihoods, their future, for a very long time"

    "If they are given honest straight forward facts and they decide to leave, then that is the decision the British people take"

    "But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate, then I regard that as deceitful"

    "That is how I see Vote Leave's campaign"

    "This is a deceitful campaign"

    "And in terms of what they're saying about immigration, they are misleading people to an extraordinary extent"

    "The nonsense we. hear from Vote Leave, about lets get our mojo back and become a great country. We already are a great and successful country, which is why immigrants are coming to us"

    "How will leaving the EU reduce immigration numbers? There are already more people coming into the country from outside the European Union than inside"

    "People are being invited to vote for a pig in a poke"

    I voted remain in the EU referendum just like I voted No in the Indy referendum held here in Scotland. I was gutted at the result of the EU referendum as I recorded on here on the night when the result was declared. But I still to this day remain far more angry at the arrogant leaders of the various leading EU countries who were in charge of understanding and recognising the key important contribution that the UK made to the EU, not least the fact we were one of the only key net financial contributors! And not only did none of them lift a finger to help David Cameron and his government in their campaign to fight for us to remain in the EU, they proceeded to embarrass and try to humiliate him much in the way they did Theresa May when she tried to negociate a soft Brexit!

    I still remain convinced that the optics of the sheer arrogance of those EU leaders behaviour towards Cameron and the UK when he went begging bowl in hand and asked for some small concessions for the UK to prove we were an important and integral part of the EU that he could take home and sell and they very loudly said no did more to swing the EU referendum result than a spending declaration by the Leave campaign on the side of a bus!! The collective EU leaderships position of trying to humilate the UK Government did more to shift the leave result over the line.

    I remember a few years after the EU referendum reading an article where a German Minister admitted they had been really badly advised over the UK EU referendum and they had been told that there was no way the UK would vote to leave and therefore there was absolutely no need set a precedent by making any concessions. And then Covid hit, and to this day I remain glad we set our own investment path when it came to finding a not for profit vaccine and getting that vaccine into arms far easier than the EU ever did despite the way they tried to trash it to their own detriment.
    Sir Craig Oliver’s book is instructive on this point. He said they were going for talks with Merkel knowing that they were utterly pointless. She knew Cameron was going to back Remain so she didn’t have to give him anything.
    Again, just highlights my main point, the ill informed arrogance of the key EU leaders during the EU referendum campaign was breathtakingly stupid.
    There's an interview with Francois Hollande where he says both he and Merkel warned Cameron not to hold referendum. Hollande said that he wouldn't have been certain of winning a referendum in France but Cameron didn't think it was a risk.
    I think that Cameron was either in favour of leaving or very complacent (stupid). Greensill tilts it towards the latter.
    Again, no surprise they didn't want a referendum, I know George Osborne didn't want one either and it cost Cameron his premiership! But you unlike Cameron totally ignored the last European elections in the UK where Cameron was faced with no choice but to offer an EU referendum at the next GE. Like the 2011 Scottish Holyrood election result, that is democracy for you. Lets just stop rewritting the history around the clear election results that indicated the need for these two clear referendums.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,483
    fitalass said:

    Dopermean said:

    fitalass said:

    tlg86 said:

    fitalass said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just have to remind everyone that John Major was a great deal smarter than he was given credit for.

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1953028976105894349
    In 2016 John Major called out the lies and deception of Vote Leave,

    "I am angry at the way the British people are being misled. This is much more important than a general election. This referendum will affect people, their livelihoods, their future, for a very long time"

    "If they are given honest straight forward facts and they decide to leave, then that is the decision the British people take"

    "But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate, then I regard that as deceitful"

    "That is how I see Vote Leave's campaign"

    "This is a deceitful campaign"

    "And in terms of what they're saying about immigration, they are misleading people to an extraordinary extent"

    "The nonsense we. hear from Vote Leave, about lets get our mojo back and become a great country. We already are a great and successful country, which is why immigrants are coming to us"

    "How will leaving the EU reduce immigration numbers? There are already more people coming into the country from outside the European Union than inside"

    "People are being invited to vote for a pig in a poke"

    I voted remain in the EU referendum just like I voted No in the Indy referendum held here in Scotland. I was gutted at the result of the EU referendum as I recorded on here on the night when the result was declared. But I still to this day remain far more angry at the arrogant leaders of the various leading EU countries who were in charge of understanding and recognising the key important contribution that the UK made to the EU, not least the fact we were one of the only key net financial contributors! And not only did none of them lift a finger to help David Cameron and his government in their campaign to fight for us to remain in the EU, they proceeded to embarrass and try to humiliate him much in the way they did Theresa May when she tried to negociate a soft Brexit!

    I still remain convinced that the optics of the sheer arrogance of those EU leaders behaviour towards Cameron and the UK when he went begging bowl in hand and asked for some small concessions for the UK to prove we were an important and integral part of the EU that he could take home and sell and they very loudly said no did more to swing the EU referendum result than a spending declaration by the Leave campaign on the side of a bus!! The collective EU leaderships position of trying to humilate the UK Government did more to shift the leave result over the line.

    I remember a few years after the EU referendum reading an article where a German Minister admitted they had been really badly advised over the UK EU referendum and they had been told that there was no way the UK would vote to leave and therefore there was absolutely no need set a precedent by making any concessions. And then Covid hit, and to this day I remain glad we set our own investment path when it came to finding a not for profit vaccine and getting that vaccine into arms far easier than the EU ever did despite the way they tried to trash it to their own detriment.
    Sir Craig Oliver’s book is instructive on this point. He said they were going for talks with Merkel knowing that they were utterly pointless. She knew Cameron was going to back Remain so she didn’t have to give him anything.
    Again, just highlights my main point, the ill informed arrogance of the key EU leaders during the EU referendum campaign was breathtakingly stupid.
    There's an interview with Francois Hollande where he says both he and Merkel warned Cameron not to hold referendum. Hollande said that he wouldn't have been certain of winning a referendum in France but Cameron didn't think it was a risk.
    I think that Cameron was either in favour of leaving or very complacent (stupid). Greensill tilts it towards the latter.
    Again, no surprise they didn't want a referendum, I know George Osborne didn't want one either and it cost Cameron his premiership! But you unlike Cameron totally ignored the last European elections in the UK where Cameron was faced with no choice but to offer an EU referendum at the next GE. Like the 2011 Scottish Holyrood election result, that is democracy for you. Lets just stop rewritting the history around the clear election results that indicated the need for these two clear referendums.
    He was elected in 2015 on that promise, but there was no need to schedule it for 2016. A date of 2017 or 2018 would have allowed a better planned campaign, would have allowed proper renegotiation and would have been more distant from the refugee crisis of 2015.

    Cameron owns the mistakes.
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