politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the Bashir move from UKIP to CON Marf gives her view
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Horribly I have already been thru them. Ironically, many things are posted on this site, (news, polls, council results, predictions) but actual odds rarely, and a full book seemingly never. Betfair graphs are sometimes posted, but not the individual points on the graph. Damn, this is not looking good...:-(AndyJS said:
They might have been mentioned in the PB archives. Here are the May 2010 pages. The comments aren't there any more unfortunately, but the headers may have mentioned something.viewcode said:I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/page/18/0 -
Less than 4% to count
Still 0.08 and 0.56% for 150 and 151...0 -
Syriza must have been about 150 votes short of 150 seats at least twice tonight...0
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They would have been mentioned in the comments for sure but for some reason they've disappeared, which is disappointing because I used to enjoy reading them. Vintage comments were still available until about a year ago IIRC. You can still get some comments using the Wayback Machine website I think.viewcode said:
Horribly I have already been thru them. Ironically, many things are posted on this site, (news, polls, council results, predictions) but actual odds rarely, and a full book seemingly never. Betfair graphs are sometimes posted, but not the individual points on the graph. Damn, this is not looking good...:-(AndyJS said:
They might have been mentioned in the PB archives. Here are the May 2010 pages. The comments aren't there any more unfortunately, but the headers may have mentioned something.viewcode said:I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/page/18/0 -
.11 of a seat0
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That may help. It gives coral's odds for nom, lab maj, con man, lib maj at a given date. If I assume that's the full book, I can calculate the over round, convert the implied probability to actual probability, then compare it to the final result via average error or RMSE.AndyJS said:This article might help. (I haven't read it all myself):
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/05/election-betting-recordviewcode said:
From the somewhat frantic reading up I've been doing, there is an inherent problem with translating odds to probabilities. Aside from the previously discussed over round, there is also the fact that bookiemath does not acknowledge the existence of zero nor infinity: a bookie will not offer odds of 0/1 on an absolutely certain event, nor infinity/1 on an impossible event. I think the lowest shadsy will go is 1/100, and the highest odds I've seen for the present parliament is 999/1.Pulpstar said:
Conservative was a bit high, and Lib Dems way too high, with Labour too low in the spreads. I rmember that !viewcode said:I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
However, this is neither here nor there. Unfortunately, I need the exact odds...:-(
That's a good help: thank you, Andy. If anybody has the book for other bookies in may 2010, I'd be grateful
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.14 or 3000 votes, 1500 swing between TP and Syriza for this seat...0
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.12 or 2600, 1300 swing0
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It might be worth a try, and I will try. Unfortunately it's unlikely somebody will post the full book ( or even just liblabconnom) in a single post. I might try ukpr: just as polls are always posted here, I wonder if Anthony wells or one of the below the line commentators posted a full book. It's a bit like wading thru treacle: I might just have to email shadsy, ask him for Ladbrokes' s book at the time, and take Coral and Ladbrokes as the best I can get.AndyJS said:They would have been mentioned in the comments for sure but for some reason they've disappeared, which is disappointing because I used to enjoy reading them. Vintage comments were still available until about a year ago IIRC. You can still get some comments using the Wayback Machine website I think.
viewcode said:
Horribly I have already been thru them. Ironically, many things are posted on this site, (news, polls, council results, predictions) but actual odds rarely, and a full book seemingly never. Betfair graphs are sometimes posted, but not the individual points on the graph. Damn, this is not looking good...:-(AndyJS said:
They might have been mentioned in the PB archives. Here are the May 2010 pages. The comments aren't there any more unfortunately, but the headers may have mentioned something.viewcode said:I sense that this may not have been the best night to ask a non-greece related question...
But having said that, the late-night crew may answer something the evening shift could not.
So, my question is this: "what were the betting odds on the night before the 2010 UK general election?"
I've tried everywhere, but with no success. So if anybody has a clue, I'd be grateful
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/page/18/
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My Greek analysis based on my info:
On what is going to happen in Greece over the next week:
Tomorrow there is a meeting between the ANEL leader (Kammenos) and Tsipras to discuss a coalition government, Tsipras will offer a cabinet position plus some junior minister posts, Kammenos will demand also a trial for those who signed the bailout of death (basically to send Papandreou to jail). Afterwards Tsipras will meet with the River leader to ask for passive support of the SYRIZA-ANEL coalition government (passive because Kammenos and some others from inside SYRIZA have vetoed to include the River in a coalition due to its ties to the underworld (greek oligarchs, mafia, ect).
Then there is the typical vote for the President, rumours have it that someone who's essentially retired from politics from ND will get the job (the greek Euro Commissioner is one of them).
Over the short term there will be a direct collision between Greece and Germany however Merkel is coming to Athens to personally negotiate with Tsipras, as soon as the end of February.
In the medium term the Greek government has until June until it will have to make a decision about the bonds held by the ECB (they have no problem of paying the IMF, they have the cash for that).
In the long term a Greek euro exit might not produce a large devaluation for 4 reasons: One is that the current account is now in surplus. Two, Greece is experiencing strong deflation for 2 years now. Three, the greek government deficit is small in the region of a couple of billions. Four, the Greek money supply is stable so there is no pressure on the currency value from that point.
Goodnight.0 -
Sunil's latest offering on Twitter:AndyJS said:Mr Bashir's latest offering on Twitter:
twitter.com/AmjadBashirMEP/status/559513448749338624
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/559304713003597824
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with less than 3% to count.
0.13, about 2900 votes, 1450 swing to 150 seats
0.57% to 151, about 31,000 votes0 -
I think they have stopped counting for the night.RodCrosby said:
The Ahaia constituency is the key, they've stopped counting at 87.57% with 71 districts to declare, SYRIZA has 43.21% there.0 -
Sunil: thanks, I prefer yours!0
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Oil down again.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Incidentally, the press were wrong to say oil went up when the Saudi king died. It had gone up but that was a few days beforehand.0 -
Just noticed that the Greek system has elements of PR^2, in its allocation of seats to constituencies.0
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0.15
0.576%0 -
with less than 2% left to count...
0.14 of a seat to 150 seats [3200 votes, or 1600 swing from TP]
remainders
TP 0.577
Syriza, 0.437
0.576% of the vote to 151 seats, around an 32,500 increase, relative to all the others, with only 115,000 left to count.0 -
PR^2 in Greece would have delivered something like
Syriza 177
ND 103
Golden Dawn 5
TP 5
next 4
next 3
next 3
Overal majority of 54, similar to FPTP.0 -
with less than 1% left to count...
0.095 of a seat to 150 seats [2170 votes, or 1085 swing from TP]
remainders
TP 0.554
Syriza, 0.458
0.563% of the vote to 151 seats, around a 32,500 increase, relative to all the others, with only 58,000 left to count.0 -
.080
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with less than half of 1% left to count...
0.068 of a seat to 150 seats [1540 votes, or 770 swing from TP]
remainders
TP 0.526
Syriza, 0.458
0.563% of the vote to 151 seats, around a 32,500 increase, relative to all the others, with only 29,000 left to count.
So looks like 151 is now mathematically impossible...
[No info on postal, or other votes]0 -
with less than a quarter of 1% left to count...
0.104 of a seat to 150 seats [2350 votes, or 1175 swing from TP]
remainders
TP 0.524
Syriza, 0.420
0.578% of the vote to 151 seats, around a 32,500 increase, relative to all the others, with only 15,000 left to count.
So 151 is now mathematically impossible...
[No info on postal, or other votes]0 -
Looks like it's 149 seats unless a very strong Syriza area is still left to declare.0
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Anyone know why you can't bet on the Australian Open tennis with Betfair exchange? Something to do with the Aussies not liking exchange betting I assume.0
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https://twitter.com/ahorapodemos/status/559466812317130752
"Greeks finally have a government, not a Merkel envoy"0 -
Greece - voting closes 5pm UK time
Official results:
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
Liveblog:
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_25/01/2015_546503
Greek TV:
http://webtv.nerit.gr/nerit1-live/
June 2012 results:
http://ekloges-prev.singularlogic.eu/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
Epharisto!!
DC0 -
Greece - voting closes 5pm UK time
Official results:
http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
Liveblog:
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_25/01/2015_546503
Greek TV:
http://webtv.nerit.gr/nerit1-live/
June 2012 results:
http://ekloges-prev.singularlogic.eu/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
Epharisto!!
DC0
This discussion has been closed.