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Scottish subsample watch – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,487
    ...
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    To soften the edges of his praise for Sir Keir, here’s John Rentoul’s ‘View From Westminster’ email


    I think the only chance the Conservatives have is with a manifesto that is honest with people about the state of the nation’s finances, and promises to balance the books.
    Yes. The 2-child thing and the general competition for the votes of the less well off is a lifeline for the Tories.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,091

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,451

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    TfL take action on Jenrick video... The spoof statement from Sadiq Khan about distressing footage of a man harassing the fare-evading community wasn't far off:

    https://x.com/Channel4News/status/1928140744507715932

    Transport for London have said Tory MP Robert Jenrick didn’t have permission to film a video where he was calling out people for alleged fare evasion.

    I think we have to chalk this up as a grudging win for Jenrick. Hopefully a unique event.
    TfL doing their best to make Jenrick popular, there
    Maybe the fare dodgers will sue Jenrick for harassment? Have TfL taken any action against the fare dodgers?
    Isn’t it a huge mistake for a politician to shout “LOOK AT ME I’M MR CLEAN” just like Jenrick has done? If he has ever done anything in the past on a par or worse than fair dodging, then he’s finished isn’t he?
    :lol:
    After today I genuinely believe we can declare we have had peak Reform.

    From zero immigration to better spending giveaways than all other parties promising - all paid for by cutting spending that’s not needed, like asylum hotels, it’s an unserious General Election manifesto with Black Hole running into hundreds of billions of pounds.

    Even before then, both Conservatives and Labour are certain to be rising in the polls again towards the end of this parliament, as both those parties will have better economic credibility than Reform.
    I'm yet to be convinced. Farageonomics is not dissimilar to Trumponomics. The conned by the conmen voters still believe the Emperor is fully clothed beyond the smoke and mirrors.
    No one was conned by Trumpnomics, the whole world just had strange election results because of historically long and derp credit crunch. But that’s time limited, normal elections becoming distant from unprecedented credit crunch are just around the corner.
    Unless the pre-credit crunch demographics miraculously get restored then that’s unlikely.
  • vikvik Posts: 442

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    Yeah but where? To my untutored eye, if I'd not known how weak is Kemi's position, I'd have said that Jenrick's video was pitching for Mayor of London rather than LotO.
    Jenrick's latest TickTock video is a direct attack on Sadiq Khan. It does appear as if Jenrick might be seriously thinking of running for Mayor.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@robert_jenrick/video/7509927101487795478
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:


    I'm not sure whether a Court can rule a law to be unconstitutional. I don't see SCOTUS liking this, since they are very attached to the status of SCOTUS.

    I'm not sure - there is precedent for SCOTUS changing it's own effective jursidiction though, Marbury V. Madison expanded the power of the court in 1803 and Trump vs United States contracted it in 2025. This would be congress limiting the power of the courts though, which is slightly different.

    Congress was always intended to be the most powerful of the three branches of gov't by the founding fathers though but in practice it often acts like it is the weakest next to often muscular Supreme Courts and presidents fond of executive orders (Trump isn't the first)

    My hunch is yes, congress can nix the court.
    It can't "nix" the court without overturning the entire constitution - but there are a number of ways it might try to circumscribe its powers.

    This one isn't likely to pass muster, I suspect.

    Unless there's a full scale coup. But that would also be at Congress's expense.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266
    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    If he was smart, next he does shoplifting. Wait around outside a London Tesco or Greggs and confront those walking out without paying.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,487

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    TfL take action on Jenrick video... The spoof statement from Sadiq Khan about distressing footage of a man harassing the fare-evading community wasn't far off:

    https://x.com/Channel4News/status/1928140744507715932

    Transport for London have said Tory MP Robert Jenrick didn’t have permission to film a video where he was calling out people for alleged fare evasion.

    I think we have to chalk this up as a grudging win for Jenrick. Hopefully a unique event.
    TfL doing their best to make Jenrick popular, there
    Maybe the fare dodgers will sue Jenrick for harassment? Have TfL taken any action against the fare dodgers?
    Isn’t it a huge mistake for a politician to shout “LOOK AT ME I’M MR CLEAN” just like Jenrick has done? If he has ever done anything in the past on a par or worse than fair dodging, then he’s finished isn’t he?
    :lol:
    After today I genuinely believe we can declare we have had peak Reform.

    From zero immigration to better spending giveaways than all other parties promising - all paid for by cutting spending that’s not needed, like asylum hotels, it’s an unserious General Election manifesto with Black Hole running into hundreds of billions of pounds.

    Even before then, both Conservatives and Labour are certain to be rising in the polls again towards the end of this parliament, as both those parties will have better economic credibility than Reform.
    They've had more peaks than a lemon meringue pie.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,314

    MattW said:


    Robert Reich
    @RBReich

    If Trump ends the contempt power of judges with his “big, beautiful bill,” no one will be able to stop him.

    A future Congress would need the power of the courts to enforce their investigations, subpoenas, and laws.

    It would be the end of American democracy.

    https://x.com/RBReich/status/1928179717015822493

    Article 70302 of the OBB Bill seems to end enforcement of contempt by courts.

    So that got through the House:

    SEC. 70302. RESTRICTION ON ENFORCEMENT. No court of the United States may enforce a contempt citation for failure to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order if no security was given when the injunction or order was issued pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 65(c), whether issued prior to, on, or subsequent to the date of enactment of this section.
    https://rules.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/rules.house.gov/files/documents/rcp_119-3_final.pdf

    There's a potential loophole, in that a Court could order a security of one dollar, since the amount in the Civil Procedure Rule is at the Court's discretion *, but that is certainly what Trump is trying.

    I'm not sure whether a Court can rule a law to be unconstitutional. I don't see SCOTUS liking this, since they are very attached to the status of SCOTUS.

    * (c) Security. The court may issue a preliminary injunction or a temporary restraining order only if the movant gives security in an amount that the court considers proper to pay the costs and damages sustained by any party found to have been wrongfully enjoined or restrained. The United States, its officers, and its agencies are not required to give security.
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frcp/rule_65

    Will this get through the Senate?
    "I AM THE SENATE!!!"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266
    Police drop investigation into Tory MP Crispin Blunt over alleged rape, report says

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/may/29/police-drop-investigation-into-tory-mp-crispin-blunt-over-alleged-report-says
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266
    The UK is on the brink of signing a £1.6bn trade agreement with Gulf states, amid warnings from rights groups that the deal makes no concrete provisions on human rights, modern slavery or the environment.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/29/uk-gulf-trade-deal-worth-16bn-lacks-human-rights-provisions-groups-warn
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    edited May 29
    I was struck tonight how the BBC's US correspondents managed to report the court's tariff decision, at some length, as a political spat. Bothsidesing it.

    Without once referring to Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution which plainly states that among Congress's specific powers is that to "regulate Commerce with foreign Nations", and the power to "lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises."

    Presidential powers in this respect are highly circumscribed - and it's absurd to pretend that the courts have no say in determining whether Trump's actions are valid.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,298
    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,145
    Jack Draper through to the 3rd round after what John McEnroe just called one of the best tennis matches he's ever seen.

    10/1 for Wimbledon. Probably about right, sadly. Sinner and Alcaraz just dominant.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,296

    ...

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    To soften the edges of his praise for Sir Keir, here’s John Rentoul’s ‘View From Westminster’ email


    I think the only chance the Conservatives have is with a manifesto that is honest with people about the state of the nation’s finances, and promises to balance the books.
    Yes. The 2-child thing and the general competition for the votes of the less well off is a lifeline for the Tories.

    It looks like we agree on things again Lucky. The Lib Dem’s should never have brought in the 2 child benefit cap, it’s a tax to prevent British babies and import migrants instead. Lib Dem’s can take a hit in the polls for bringing it in.

    But main reasons Conservatives will be rising in the polls ahead of the next General Election because they will have more economic credibility than Reform. Most of the voters giving Reform 30% in polls have come from the Conservatives, and Conservatives have credibility on the economy and sound finance built up over 100 years. Reform has zero economic credibility - their weak spot is the huge black hole in their economic plans, and truth is they have actually been making it bigger in last few weeks with even more uncosted not affordable promises and not realising their stupid mistake doing that!

    Whilst the inflation spike was worldwide and due to post covid reboot of world economy, the household incomes crash was also not fault of Conservative government but due to UK importing gas - lots of countries suffered with energy price when Putin started murdering Ukraine and Russian people - UK suffered from the amount of gas imports we are dependant on as we haven’t switched to renewables and energy security quickly enough.

    likewise If Farage was PM 2020 to 2024, he can not explain how he would better manage with covid reboot inflation and imported gas prices. Farage is on the wrong side of Net Zero and UK energy security argument, the Conservatives on right side of those arguments. These are the argument the Tories will use over and over to bring voters back home from Reform.

    And everything I have said here is true honest about how and why incomes were hit. You have to admit it was not all down To chancellor Rishi and PM Truss.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    This was the most surprising thing about Sunak. When he launched his leadership bid it was very slick social media operation and the guys behind it have a track record. From then on, it was a shit show.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,019
    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    I met Robert Jenrick about 4 or 5 years ago. Seemed businesslike but nothing out of the ordinary. Generic, as it were. Much less impressive than Kemi on the face of it.
    But now?
    Quite a makover with the weight loss; marathon running; coup de theatre attention grabbing - this is one seriously ambitious guy.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 285
    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,298

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    I met Robert Jenrick about 4 or 5 years ago. Seemed businesslike but nothing out of the ordinary. Generic, as it were. Much less impressive than Kemi on the face of it.
    But now?
    Quite a makover with the weight loss; marathon running; coup de theatre attention grabbing - this is one seriously ambitious guy.
    I don’t care who takes over from Starmer as long as they are ferociously right wing and sort it all out
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 285
    vik said:

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    Yeah but where? To my untutored eye, if I'd not known how weak is Kemi's position, I'd have said that Jenrick's video was pitching for Mayor of London rather than LotO.
    Jenrick's latest TickTock video is a direct attack on Sadiq Khan. It does appear as if Jenrick might be seriously thinking of running for Mayor.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@robert_jenrick/video/7509927101487795478
    I think he has bigger ideas on his mind.

    But using tiktok? Is that wise?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    I met Robert Jenrick about 4 or 5 years ago. Seemed businesslike but nothing out of the ordinary. Generic, as it were. Much less impressive than Kemi on the face of it.
    But now?
    Quite a makover with the weight loss; marathon running; coup de theatre attention grabbing - this is one seriously ambitious guy.
    Mrs U in previous role had to interact with a lot of politicians and not always clear which ones are going to successfully climb the greasy pole. Although she did call Chuka Umunna as a fraud way before it all blew up.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,481
    edited May 29
    ..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,912

    ...

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    To soften the edges of his praise for Sir Keir, here’s John Rentoul’s ‘View From Westminster’ email


    I think the only chance the Conservatives have is with a manifesto that is honest with people about the state of the nation’s finances, and promises to balance the books.
    Yes. The 2-child thing and the general competition for the votes of the less well off is a lifeline for the Tories.

    To give Kemi her dues, she is saying she won’t make glib promises for short term popularity, and that’s quite admirable. But I forgive Farage coming out with any old economic shit because I just want someone to sort out the immigration and woke lunacy
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 285
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    I met Robert Jenrick about 4 or 5 years ago. Seemed businesslike but nothing out of the ordinary. Generic, as it were. Much less impressive than Kemi on the face of it.
    But now?
    Quite a makover with the weight loss; marathon running; coup de theatre attention grabbing - this is one seriously ambitious guy.
    I don’t care who takes over from Starmer as long as they are ferociously right wing and sort it all out
    Well in the US they have Trump, so.... be careful what you wish for.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,298

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    I met Robert Jenrick about 4 or 5 years ago. Seemed businesslike but nothing out of the ordinary. Generic, as it were. Much less impressive than Kemi on the face of it.
    But now?
    Quite a makover with the weight loss; marathon running; coup de theatre attention grabbing - this is one seriously ambitious guy.
    I don’t care who takes over from Starmer as long as they are ferociously right wing and sort it all out
    Well in the US they have Trump, so.... be careful what you wish for.
    Trump isn’t right wing. He’s just a mad twat
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,825

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    I also don't know what incident he's talking about - which doesn't really help his case. Is he part of the cover-up in the media? Has he been mute? Is it too much for him to educate us in lieu of the regular media? If there was an alternate attack as he describes and no-one mentioned it - even people writing obliquely about it - should we be blamed in some way? Is pasting in a link to https://the-news.com/ too much effort for all concerned? It seems so.
  • vikvik Posts: 442
    edited May 29

    vik said:

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    Yeah but where? To my untutored eye, if I'd not known how weak is Kemi's position, I'd have said that Jenrick's video was pitching for Mayor of London rather than LotO.
    Jenrick's latest TickTock video is a direct attack on Sadiq Khan. It does appear as if Jenrick might be seriously thinking of running for Mayor.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@robert_jenrick/video/7509927101487795478
    I think he has bigger ideas on his mind.

    But using tiktok? Is that wise?
    Being leader of the Conservative Party is not going to be a pleasant experience & the most likely outcome will be spending 3 years in opposition, and then either facing a total wipout of the Party at the hands of Reform, or else spending even more time in opposition.

    I don't know about his chances as candidate for Mayor, but being Mayor of London would certainly be a lot more enticing than Leader of the Opposition.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,451

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    The person who shot two people at the Israeli embassy in Washington had some revealing views:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/genocide-white-people-alleged-embassy-staff-shooter-s-reportedly-leaked-chats-are-anti-american-fever-dream/ar-AA1FBlfI

    “Lol you probably would have to actually genocide white people to make this a normal country,” Rodriguez wrote in one message, according to Klippenstein. “Like even a very targeted and selective rehabilitation program would probably have to lead to the lifetime imprisonments of tens of millions of white people.”
  • isamisam Posts: 41,912
    Big ‘Don’t know’ element to the Farage/Truss economics question from YG… but isn’t a bit weird that the DKs are 39, and the four main parties DKs are 35,34,35 & 21?

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1928116866599506070?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • TresTres Posts: 2,857

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 285
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    I met Robert Jenrick about 4 or 5 years ago. Seemed businesslike but nothing out of the ordinary. Generic, as it were. Much less impressive than Kemi on the face of it.
    But now?
    Quite a makover with the weight loss; marathon running; coup de theatre attention grabbing - this is one seriously ambitious guy.
    I don’t care who takes over from Starmer as long as they are ferociously right wing and sort it all out
    Well in the US they have Trump, so.... be careful what you wish for.
    Trump isn’t right wing. He’s just a mad twat
    He is in his own way offering solutions to the things right wing people say they are concerned about.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,825
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    I honestly couldn't pick Jenrick out of an identity parade of no-hopers. Or massive-hopers. I'm probably moderately above-average 'engaged' and... I have no idea what he looks like or what he stands for.

    I even know what Ed Davey looks like. Admittedly, also not what he stands for.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 285
    Tres said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
    Let's ignore what's going on in the UK then?

    In fact can we abandon all our attempts at anti racism in the UK until people stop dying in Gaza? That has to be a bigger priority right?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,324

    ...

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    To soften the edges of his praise for Sir Keir, here’s John Rentoul’s ‘View From Westminster’ email


    I think the only chance the Conservatives have is with a manifesto that is honest with people about the state of the nation’s finances, and promises to balance the books.
    Yes. The 2-child thing and the general competition for the votes of the less well off is a lifeline for the Tories.

    It looks like we agree on things again Lucky. The Lib Dem’s should never have brought in the 2 child benefit cap, it’s a tax to prevent British babies and import migrants instead. Lib Dem’s can take a hit in the polls for bringing it in.

    But main reasons Conservatives will be rising in the polls ahead of the next General Election because they will have more economic credibility than Reform. Most of the voters giving Reform 30% in polls have come from the Conservatives, and Conservatives have credibility on the economy and sound finance built up over 100 years. Reform has zero economic credibility - their weak spot is the huge black hole in their economic plans, and truth is they have actually been making it bigger in last few weeks with even more uncosted not affordable promises and not realising their stupid mistake doing that!

    Whilst the inflation spike was worldwide and due to post covid reboot of world economy, the household incomes crash was also not fault of Conservative government but due to UK importing gas - lots of countries suffered with energy price when Putin started murdering Ukraine and Russian people - UK suffered from the amount of gas imports we are dependant on as we haven’t switched to renewables and energy security quickly enough.

    likewise If Farage was PM 2020 to 2024, he can not explain how he would better manage with covid reboot inflation and imported gas prices. Farage is on the wrong side of Net Zero and UK energy security argument, the Conservatives on right side of those arguments. These are the argument the Tories will use over and over to bring voters back home from Reform.

    And everything I have said here is true honest about how and why incomes were hit. You have to admit it was not all down To chancellor Rishi and PM Truss.
    Depends on what the main issue is at the next election. if it's the economy, the Tories may indeed have a chance, if it's immigration then it will be Farage
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,324
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    I honestly couldn't pick Jenrick out of an identity parade of no-hopers. Or massive-hopers. I'm probably moderately above-average 'engaged' and... I have no idea what he looks like or what he stands for.

    I even know what Ed Davey looks like. Admittedly, also not what he stands for.
    Jenrick is the only one of the Tories that seem to grasp that as the opposition you have to do things to grab attention (stunts if you will). See Ed Davey and his antics at the GE.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,095
    edited May 29
    Tres said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
    +1 - the problem none Israel Jews have is that Isreal is doing on to Gaza what Germany did to Jews that resulted in them being given Palestine / Isreal..

    It's not a good look...
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 285
    eek said:

    Tres said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
    +1 - the problem none Israel Jews have is that Isreal is doing on to Gaza what Germany did to Jews that resulted in them being given Palestine / Isreal..

    It's not a good look...
    Absolutely ridiculous.
  • vikvik Posts: 442

    ...

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    To soften the edges of his praise for Sir Keir, here’s John Rentoul’s ‘View From Westminster’ email


    I think the only chance the Conservatives have is with a manifesto that is honest with people about the state of the nation’s finances, and promises to balance the books.
    Yes. The 2-child thing and the general competition for the votes of the less well off is a lifeline for the Tories.

    It looks like we agree on things again Lucky. The Lib Dem’s should never have brought in the 2 child benefit cap, it’s a tax to prevent British babies and import migrants instead. Lib Dem’s can take a hit in the polls for bringing it in.

    But main reasons Conservatives will be rising in the polls ahead of the next General Election because they will have more economic credibility than Reform. Most of the voters giving Reform 30% in polls have come from the Conservatives, and Conservatives have credibility on the economy and sound finance built up over 100 years. Reform has zero economic credibility - their weak spot is the huge black hole in their economic plans, and truth is they have actually been making it bigger in last few weeks with even more uncosted not affordable promises and not realising their stupid mistake doing that!

    Whilst the inflation spike was worldwide and due to post covid reboot of world economy, the household incomes crash was also not fault of Conservative government but due to UK importing gas - lots of countries suffered with energy price when Putin started murdering Ukraine and Russian people - UK suffered from the amount of gas imports we are dependant on as we haven’t switched to renewables and energy security quickly enough.

    likewise If Farage was PM 2020 to 2024, he can not explain how he would better manage with covid reboot inflation and imported gas prices. Farage is on the wrong side of Net Zero and UK energy security argument, the Conservatives on right side of those arguments. These are the argument the Tories will use over and over to bring voters back home from Reform.

    And everything I have said here is true honest about how and why incomes were hit. You have to admit it was not all down To chancellor Rishi and PM Truss.
    Depends on what the main issue is at the next election. if it's the economy, the Tories may indeed have a chance, if it's immigration then it will be Farage
    The last period of Conservative government was a total s**t-show. The Tories won't be winning the next election.

    The best they might be able to do is to save the Party from being completely annihilated by Reform & retain the position of official opposition.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,586
    Leon said:

    Trump isn’t right wing. He’s just a mad twat

    The people running the White House are very, very right wing.

    Just cos the Mad king doesn't know or understand what they are doing doesn't change that
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,481
    edited May 29

    The UK is on the brink of signing a £1.6bn trade agreement with Gulf states, amid warnings from rights groups that the deal makes no concrete provisions on human rights, modern slavery or the environment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/29/uk-gulf-trade-deal-worth-16bn-lacks-human-rights-provisions-groups-warn

    Where is this 1.6bn figure from - it seems a lot bigger than that?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,481

    vik said:

    Leon said:

    JENRICKVISION on 7.1m viewers, probably the best, most impactful rightwing video since Triumph of the Will

    More, please

    Yeah but where? To my untutored eye, if I'd not known how weak is Kemi's position, I'd have said that Jenrick's video was pitching for Mayor of London rather than LotO.
    Jenrick's latest TickTock video is a direct attack on Sadiq Khan. It does appear as if Jenrick might be seriously thinking of running for Mayor.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@robert_jenrick/video/7509927101487795478
    I think he has bigger ideas on his mind.

    But using tiktok? Is that wise?
    Tiktok is where Farage got his exposure to the younger generation from, especially young men, and he has 1 million Tiktok followers.

    Jenrick may be after the same audience.

    Aspiring successor to Farage?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,857

    Tres said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
    Let's ignore what's going on in the UK then?

    In fact can we abandon all our attempts at anti racism in the UK until people stop dying in Gaza? That has to be a bigger priority right?
    always fun to see journalists being retweeted complaining about the news not being reported to their liking
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 285
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
    Let's ignore what's going on in the UK then?

    In fact can we abandon all our attempts at anti racism in the UK until people stop dying in Gaza? That has to be a bigger priority right?
    always fun to see journalists being retweeted complaining about the news not being reported to their liking
    I never knew you were so flippant about racism.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,476

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
    Let's ignore what's going on in the UK then?

    In fact can we abandon all our attempts at anti racism in the UK until people stop dying in Gaza? That has to be a bigger priority right?
    always fun to see journalists being retweeted complaining about the news not being reported to their liking
    I never knew you were so flippant about racism.
    You’ve not provided much to actually discuss. We don’t know what incident Pollard means, so it’s hard to judge his claim.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197
    As one of the correspondents on Newsnight said, the next smart move for Jenrick would be to try catching sausage roll and pork pie thieves in those types of shops.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,994
    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,451
    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    no Stephen, it's the Gazan civilians who are being murdered.
    Let's ignore what's going on in the UK then?

    In fact can we abandon all our attempts at anti racism in the UK until people stop dying in Gaza? That has to be a bigger priority right?
    always fun to see journalists being retweeted complaining about the news not being reported to their liking
    I never knew you were so flippant about racism.
    You’ve not provided much to actually discuss. We don’t know what incident Pollard means, so it’s hard to judge his claim.
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/hampstead-tube-station-jewish-boy-attacked-british-transport-police-b1229953.html
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,825

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    I honestly couldn't pick Jenrick out of an identity parade of no-hopers. Or massive-hopers. I'm probably moderately above-average 'engaged' and... I have no idea what he looks like or what he stands for.

    I even know what Ed Davey looks like. Admittedly, also not what he stands for.
    Jenrick is the only one of the Tories that seem to grasp that as the opposition you have to do things to grab attention (stunts if you will). See Ed Davey and his antics at the GE.
    Well, he's failing if that's what he's trying to do. I've seen literally zero mentions of him in any of my social media. I guess if he's after the London mayor post then it probably doesn't matter that no-one outside the M25 has any idea who he is.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,774
    TfLs no permission to film and actually we're super awesome at catching dodgers is going down like a flask of fizzy piss lol
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,825

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    SPIVCOIN - get in early!....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,928
    ohnotnow said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    I also don't know what incident he's talking about - which doesn't really help his case. Is he part of the cover-up in the media? Has he been mute? Is it too much for him to educate us in lieu of the regular media? If there was an alternate attack as he describes and no-one mentioned it - even people writing obliquely about it - should we be blamed in some way? Is pasting in a link to https://the-news.com/ too much effort for all concerned? It seems so.
    Pollard is talking about an incident at Hampstead tube on Monday. I briefly saw the story at the time, possibly in the Standard.

    But even if Pollard is right that a similar attack on Muslims would have been widely covered – and, to be frank, I think he is entirely wrong about that, it is disingenuous in the extreme of Pollard to ignore that Monday's news was dominated by the news from Liverpool.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,774
    edited May 29
    Reform have taken the Canvey Island ward at a canter with i think Tories second but way adrift
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 593
    isam said:

    Big ‘Don’t know’ element to the Farage/Truss economics question from YG… but isn’t a bit weird that the DKs are 39, and the four main parties DKs are 35,34,35 & 21?

    https://x.com/yougov/status/1928116866599506070?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    I think thst the reason for this is that there are a very large number of don't knows in rhe don't knows, so that all the groups. who know have less don't knows than the don't knows.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,296

    ...

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    To soften the edges of his praise for Sir Keir, here’s John Rentoul’s ‘View From Westminster’ email


    I think the only chance the Conservatives have is with a manifesto that is honest with people about the state of the nation’s finances, and promises to balance the books.
    Yes. The 2-child thing and the general competition for the votes of the less well off is a lifeline for the Tories.

    It looks like we agree on things again Lucky. The Lib Dem’s should never have brought in the 2 child benefit cap, it’s a tax to prevent British babies and import migrants instead. Lib Dem’s can take a hit in the polls for bringing it in.

    But main reasons Conservatives will be rising in the polls ahead of the next General Election because they will have more economic credibility than Reform. Most of the voters giving Reform 30% in polls have come from the Conservatives, and Conservatives have credibility on the economy and sound finance built up over 100 years. Reform has zero economic credibility - their weak spot is the huge black hole in their economic plans, and truth is they have actually been making it bigger in last few weeks with even more uncosted not affordable promises and not realising their stupid mistake doing that!

    Whilst the inflation spike was worldwide and due to post covid reboot of world economy, the household incomes crash was also not fault of Conservative government but due to UK importing gas - lots of countries suffered with energy price when Putin started murdering Ukraine and Russian people - UK suffered from the amount of gas imports we are dependant on as we haven’t switched to renewables and energy security quickly enough.

    likewise If Farage was PM 2020 to 2024, he can not explain how he would better manage with covid reboot inflation and imported gas prices. Farage is on the wrong side of Net Zero and UK energy security argument, the Conservatives on right side of those arguments. These are the argument the Tories will use over and over to bring voters back home from Reform.

    And everything I have said here is true honest about how and why incomes were hit. You have to admit it was not all down To chancellor Rishi and PM Truss.
    Depends on what the main issue is at the next election. if it's the economy, the Tories may indeed have a chance, if it's immigration then it will be Farage
    Ha! 😌

    If the pledge is “Zero immigration” none at all not even one on the most temporary of visa” - that makes the GE ALL about the economy - and “zero immigration” party loses bigly.

    If the policy is some sort of mature and realistic nuance “we will get it down to tens of thousands each year. Clamp down on workarounds and tricks.” Then where is the dog whistle differential that drew voters from other parties in the first place?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266
    edited May 29

    ohnotnow said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    I also don't know what incident he's talking about - which doesn't really help his case. Is he part of the cover-up in the media? Has he been mute? Is it too much for him to educate us in lieu of the regular media? If there was an alternate attack as he describes and no-one mentioned it - even people writing obliquely about it - should we be blamed in some way? Is pasting in a link to https://the-news.com/ too much effort for all concerned? It seems so.
    Pollard is talking about an incident at Hampstead tube on Monday. I briefly saw the story at the time, possibly in the Standard.

    But even if Pollard is right that a similar attack on Muslims would have been widely covered – and, to be frank, I think he is entirely wrong about that, it is disingenuous in the extreme of Pollard to ignore that Monday's news was dominated by the news from Liverpool.
    It doesn't sound anything like the incident where the Jewish kids on a bus were threatened by a mob. Now that was some disgraceful reporting where it was claimed they caused it when analysis of what they said was the absolute opposite i.e they were screaming for help.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,774
    edited May 29
    Reform gave also gained Lliedi in Camarthenshire from Labour by miles
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,298
    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    I honestly couldn't pick Jenrick out of an identity parade of no-hopers. Or massive-hopers. I'm probably moderately above-average 'engaged' and... I have no idea what he looks like or what he stands for.

    I even know what Ed Davey looks like. Admittedly, also not what he stands for.
    Jenrick is the only one of the Tories that seem to grasp that as the opposition you have to do things to grab attention (stunts if you will). See Ed Davey and his antics at the GE.
    Well, he's failing if that's what he's trying to do. I've seen literally zero mentions of him in any of my social media. I guess if he's after the London mayor post then it probably doesn't matter that no-one outside the M25 has any idea who he is.
    wtf are you talking about. His video now has 8m views - just on X

    You can despise the man - but he knows how to work the algos
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,928

    ohnotnow said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    I also don't know what incident he's talking about - which doesn't really help his case. Is he part of the cover-up in the media? Has he been mute? Is it too much for him to educate us in lieu of the regular media? If there was an alternate attack as he describes and no-one mentioned it - even people writing obliquely about it - should we be blamed in some way? Is pasting in a link to https://the-news.com/ too much effort for all concerned? It seems so.
    Pollard is talking about an incident at Hampstead tube on Monday. I briefly saw the story at the time, possibly in the Standard.

    But even if Pollard is right that a similar attack on Muslims would have been widely covered – and, to be frank, I think he is entirely wrong about that, it is disingenuous in the extreme of Pollard to ignore that Monday's news was dominated by the news from Liverpool.
    Found the Standard's report mentioned:-

    Jewish boy in hospital after ‘racially motivated assault’ at Hampstead Tube station
    British Transport Police called to ‘racially aggravated assault and robbery’ after three boys ‘threatened with knife’

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/hampstead-tube-station-jewish-boy-attacked-british-transport-police-b1229953.html

    But Liverpool drowned out what was, sadly, a pretty low key story, along with everything else.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266
    edited May 29
    Controversial opinion....Clarkson Farm Season 4 is shit.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,857

    ohnotnow said:

    Powerful stuff from Stephen Pollard although I don't know about the incident of which he speaks.

    "Unless you read the Jewish media, you will be entirely unaware of what seems to be the latest attack on Jews for being Jews. Not a word on the BBC; not a word anywhere. Not a peep from any minister. Not a dickie bird from the Mayor of London. Nothing. It’s just another incident. Just another statistic. Just another yawn, in fact. So what; it’s only Jews.

    Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine it had not been Jewish teenagers attacked for doing nothing except being visibly Jewish. Imagine instead it had been three Muslim boys attacked by a gang of skinhead thugs. Do you think there would have been total silence in response? Do you think the Home Secretary and other figures would have been mute? Do you think the Mayor of London would have ignored the attack completely? Or do you think, as I do, that there would have been entirely justified outrage, and that we would likely even now be in the middle of a national debate over bigotry?

    But it was Jews who were attacked, and – as we have seen with unrelenting, unremitting frequency since the hate marches began after the October 7 massacre of 1200 Jews by Hamas – Jews don’t count, as David Baddiel put it in his brilliant book of that title. Because the lack of any response to this attack is not a one-off. It is part of a now deeply entrenched pattern demonstrating that when it comes to hatred and bigotry, so long as Jews are the target then the bar that needs to be crossed for action in response is not so much high as out of sight.

    https://x.com/stephenpollard/status/1927981381474263353

    I also don't know what incident he's talking about - which doesn't really help his case. Is he part of the cover-up in the media? Has he been mute? Is it too much for him to educate us in lieu of the regular media? If there was an alternate attack as he describes and no-one mentioned it - even people writing obliquely about it - should we be blamed in some way? Is pasting in a link to https://the-news.com/ too much effort for all concerned? It seems so.
    Pollard is talking about an incident at Hampstead tube on Monday. I briefly saw the story at the time, possibly in the Standard.

    But even if Pollard is right that a similar attack on Muslims would have been widely covered – and, to be frank, I think he is entirely wrong about that, it is disingenuous in the extreme of Pollard to ignore that Monday's news was dominated by the news from Liverpool.
    Found the Standard's report mentioned:-

    Jewish boy in hospital after ‘racially motivated assault’ at Hampstead Tube station
    British Transport Police called to ‘racially aggravated assault and robbery’ after three boys ‘threatened with knife’

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/hampstead-tube-station-jewish-boy-attacked-british-transport-police-b1229953.html

    But Liverpool drowned out what was, sadly, a pretty low key story, along with everything else.
    teenager gets mugged isn't exactly front page news. Does Pollard really think every such incident would be reported
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 84,266
    edited May 29
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    I honestly couldn't pick Jenrick out of an identity parade of no-hopers. Or massive-hopers. I'm probably moderately above-average 'engaged' and... I have no idea what he looks like or what he stands for.

    I even know what Ed Davey looks like. Admittedly, also not what he stands for.
    Jenrick is the only one of the Tories that seem to grasp that as the opposition you have to do things to grab attention (stunts if you will). See Ed Davey and his antics at the GE.
    Well, he's failing if that's what he's trying to do. I've seen literally zero mentions of him in any of my social media. I guess if he's after the London mayor post then it probably doesn't matter that no-one outside the M25 has any idea who he is.
    wtf are you talking about. His video now has 8m views - just on X

    You can despise the man - but he knows how to work the algos
    If he was really smart, he already has BJ does Gregg shoplifters, BJ does phone snatcher, in the can.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,080
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    I honestly couldn't pick Jenrick out of an identity parade of no-hopers. Or massive-hopers. I'm probably moderately above-average 'engaged' and... I have no idea what he looks like or what he stands for.

    I even know what Ed Davey looks like. Admittedly, also not what he stands for.
    Jenrick is the only one of the Tories that seem to grasp that as the opposition you have to do things to grab attention (stunts if you will). See Ed Davey and his antics at the GE.
    Well, he's failing if that's what he's trying to do. I've seen literally zero mentions of him in any of my social media. I guess if he's after the London mayor post then it probably doesn't matter that no-one outside the M25 has any idea who he is.
    wtf are you talking about. His video now has 8m views - just on X

    You can despise the man - but he knows how to work the algos
    X is now the riightwing rageosphere ,though. I expect other people measure wider visibility from the number of views on youtube, tiktok, etc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,928
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    What is interesting is BJs video has 7.5m views, the rebroadcast from the likes of Sky news, absolutely f##k all.

    Views from the already committed (and their bots) rather than the wider public then?
    No, it's all of the other social media pages linking to it directly driving the volume.

    I've seen it all over Instagram today with most of the comments being very positive about him taking them on. Don't forget that the wider public have got no clue who he is and any attacks in his dodgy past will be seen as no different to Labour taking all the freebies so I don't think it's necessarily a bar to getting the top job.
    Yes. The chatterati just don’t get this. For most people this is their first glimpse of Jenrick. He has achieved virality in a way that simply no other politician does - apart from Farage

    I will politely note that I spotted this after his first video from Birmingham in Jan/feb about the bins/garbage - he’s excellent at social media and he’s hired some skilful crew

    Eg at the end of the Birmingham video you caught an audible snatch of the call to prayer. A tiny tiny dog whistle. Brilliantly done (even if you decry the purpose). That’s great sound editing

    I honestly couldn't pick Jenrick out of an identity parade of no-hopers. Or massive-hopers. I'm probably moderately above-average 'engaged' and... I have no idea what he looks like or what he stands for.

    I even know what Ed Davey looks like. Admittedly, also not what he stands for.
    Jenrick is the only one of the Tories that seem to grasp that as the opposition you have to do things to grab attention (stunts if you will). See Ed Davey and his antics at the GE.
    Well, he's failing if that's what he's trying to do. I've seen literally zero mentions of him in any of my social media. I guess if he's after the London mayor post then it probably doesn't matter that no-one outside the M25 has any idea who he is.
    wtf are you talking about. His video now has 8m views - just on X

    You can despise the man - but he knows how to work the algos
    He does, or his media team does, but his direct attack on Sadiq Khan that vik posted an hour or so back shows Jenrick needs more practice at ‘walk and talk’ to avoid looking like Thunderbirds does Alan Partridge.
    https://www.tiktok.com/@robert_jenrick/video/7509927101487795478

    And as noted earlier, it suggests a run for Mayor not LotO, taking the Boris route to Number 10, although both elections are far enough in the future that he can pivot later.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197
    The Jenrick video is picking up about 100,000 views every 15 mins or so. Amazing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197

    Reform have taken the Canvey Island ward at a canter with i think Tories second but way adrift

    Canvey Island Winter Gardens

    RUK 712
    C 233
    CIIP 200
    Lab 131
    Grn 67
  • vikvik Posts: 442

    Reform gave also gained Lliedi in Camarthenshire from Labour by miles

    Tories in 5th place, behind the Greens. Lol.

    https://x.com/LloydCymru/status/1928227302023819424
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,080
    Robert Jenrick could be the new Einstein, or Churchill I think. His video is the most profound comment on Britain since Jonathan Swift.
  • vikvik Posts: 442
    Andy_JS said:

    Reform have taken the Canvey Island ward at a canter with i think Tories second but way adrift

    Canvey Island Winter Gardens

    RUK 712
    C 233
    CIIP 200
    Lab 131
    Grn 67
    ➡️ RFM: 53.1% (New)
    🌳 CON: 17.3% (+1.3)
    🏘️ CIIP: 14.9% (-22.7)
    🌹 LAB: 9.8% (-2.8)
    🌍 GRN: 5.0% (-6.1)

    No CR (-22.8) as previous.

    Reform GAIN from Canvey Island Independents.
    Changes w/ 2024.

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1928227350237352042
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,707
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    Interesting.

    Keir Starmer has found Nigel Farage’s weak spot – and it is Trussonomics. Me for @Independent

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1928111735874929119

    Obvs Rentoul has a point. But Starmer has weaknesses too. Like how have Labour got into the state where the very poor - those earning £13000 pa - are entering the income tax bracket and they are not even starting to address it. That's at about half the ft minimum wage. It's absurd. Farage is right to draw attention to it, and it will be some years before it matters that he can't solve it quickly.

    And how have Labour made the error of withdrawing WFA from a group of fairly poor pensioners while wealthier pensioners get pretty generous tax treatment.

    These are basic Labour errors. What they need to comprehend is that Reform, as they have every right to, is recasting itself as Old Labour social democrats, with Old Labour views on family life, the working class, the benefits class, borders, and watching Dixon of Dock Green in black and white.
    I wrote on here about ten years ago, someone will be able to find it, that post referendum the existing parties will shape shift into

    Cameroons & New Labour
    Old Labour, UKIP & posh Tories
    Corbynites, Greens & Lib Dems

    I think

    Not bad if I’m remembering rightly
    Plausible. I predicted the country would turn right, with a left-wing party, an Atlanticist-right party, and a national-conservative party. And I may have been right. But it never occurred to me that the left-wing party would be the Greens, the Atlanticist-right party would be Labour, and the national-conservative party would be Reform... :(
  • vikvik Posts: 442
    vik said:

    Reform gave also gained Lliedi in Camarthenshire from Labour by miles

    Tories in 5th place, behind the Greens PC. Lol.

    https://x.com/LloydCymru/status/1928227302023819424
    ➡️ RFM: 42.6% (New)
    🌹 LAB: 23.4% (-34.9)
    🙋 Ind: 8.7% (New)
    🌼 PLC: 8.0% (New)
    🌳 CON: 7.0% (-8.7)
    🙋 Ind: 6.5% (New)
    🔶 LDM: 3.1% (New)
    🐉 GWL: 0.7% (New)

    No Ind (-26.0) as prev.

    Reform GAIN from Labour.
    Changes w/ 2022.

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1928222981307703731
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,451
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1928229475256332608

    Reform GAIN from Labour

    Lliedi (Carmarthenshire) council by-election result:

    REF: 42.6% (+42.6)
    LAB: 23.4% (-34.8)
    IND: 8.7% (-17.4)
    PC: 8.0% (+8.0)
    CON: 7.0% (-8.8)

    +/- 2022
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,977

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197
    edited May 29
    Newhaven is an easy LD win. Derisory figures for Con and Lab.

    Newhaven North

    Lib Dem 697
    Reform UK 389
    Green 122
    Con 59
    Ind 57
    Lab 23

    Electorate 3,953
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
    Farage's bubble is probably going to be burst when Jenrick takes over as Tory leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,815
    vik said:

    Reform gave also gained Lliedi in Camarthenshire from Labour by miles

    Tories in 5th place, behind the Greens. Lol.

    https://x.com/LloydCymru/status/1928227302023819424
    Only because of tactical voting for Reform by Tory voters, the Labour vote was down far more and it was Labour who lost the seat
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,928
    Andy_JS said:

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
    No, and that is why Reform is flying so high while the Tories are barely off the ground – voters do remember it is the Conservatives who broke Broken Britain.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,084

    Robert Jenrick could be the new Einstein, or Churchill I think. His video is the most profound comment on Britain since Jonathan Swift.

    I think you're underplaying this, there's a good chance he could the replacement for PTFE.
  • vikvik Posts: 442
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
    It does show that Farage is willing to take risks, think outside the box & present a bold vision.

    It might also lead to a flood of donations from Crypto Bros, which might be very helpful for Reform's finances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,815
    edited May 29

    Andy_JS said:

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
    No, and that is why Reform is flying so high while the Tories are barely off the ground – voters do remember it is the Conservatives who broke Broken Britain.
    Only last week immigration fell due to the tighter immigration rules Rishi brought in, not what Starmer did.

    Brexit was what the voters themselves voted for in 2016 and 2019, austerity was a product of the massive debts Brown left.

    Reform are only the main protest vote now as they are the only UK wide party not to have been in government in the last 15 years
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,451
    Ann Widdecombe: The Tories are finished

    https://youtu.be/ZcH87V11NNo
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,928
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
    No, and that is why Reform is flying so high while the Tories are barely off the ground – voters do remember it is the Conservatives who broke Broken Britain.
    Only last week immigration fell due to the tighter immigration rules Rishi brought in, not what Starmer did.

    Brexit was what the voters themselves voted for in 2016 and 2019, austerity was a product of the massive debts Brown left.

    Reform are only the main protest vote now as they are the only UK wide party not to have been in government in the last 15 years
    Yes, Reform is NOTA. Policy doesn't matter.
  • vikvik Posts: 442
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
    Farage's bubble is probably going to be burst when Jenrick takes over as Tory leader.
    I don't think it will & I think Jenrick probably understands this.

    There is no reason for voters to prefer "Diet Reform" when the "Full Flavour Reform" is also available as an option.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,451
    vik said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
    Farage's bubble is probably going to be burst when Jenrick takes over as Tory leader.
    I don't think it will & I think Jenrick probably understands this.

    There is no reason for voters to prefer "Diet Reform" when the "Full Flavour Reform" is also available as an option.
    That equation becomes more complicated if Jenrick and Lowe join forces. They could position the Tories to the right of Reform on some issues.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,815
    vik said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
    Farage's bubble is probably going to be burst when Jenrick takes over as Tory leader.
    I don't think it will & I think Jenrick probably understands this.

    There is no reason for voters to prefer "Diet Reform" when the "Full Flavour Reform" is also available as an option.
    Indeed, which is why Jenrick's best bet is to hope that Labour defeat Farage and Starmer scrapes home with most seats in a hung parliament with Badenoch or indeed Cleverly or Stride also defeated at the next general election.

    Then he will be ideally placed to reunite the right after Farage and the moderate wing of the Tories both flopped and shift the Conservatives further right under his leadership and have opposition largely to himself to a Labour minority government likely propped up by the LDs, Greens and SNP
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,296
    edited May 30
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
    No, and that is why Reform is flying so high while the Tories are barely off the ground – voters do remember it is the Conservatives who broke Broken Britain.
    Only last week immigration fell due to the tighter immigration rules Rishi brought in, not what Starmer did.

    Brexit was what the voters themselves voted for in 2016 and 2019, austerity was a product of the massive debts Brown left.

    Reform are only the main protest vote now as they are the only UK wide party not to have been in government in the last 15 years
    No. It’s no more complicated than historic crash in incomes the pain of which is still going on. Normal Con Lab dominance will be resumed soon.

    How can I be 100% confident of that? Easy. If it’s to do with all those things that happened in UK as you tried to say, then how come crazy things happened world wide General elections in same time of incomes crash?

    All the evidence you need is there on wiki polling page. Where are reform over half way through last parliament. 1.9% on very good polling day. Now overlay when incomes started to bite and see Ref go up in polling.

    The only key bit of UK politics to keep in mind is Farage is Godfather of Brexit, and British voters hate Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,815

    Ann Widdecombe: The Tories are finished

    https://youtu.be/ZcH87V11NNo

    Ann has switched parties to what she sees as a purer more orthodox version of conservatism ie from Tory to Reform much like she switched churches from the C of E to the Roman Catholic church for what she saw as a purer more orthodox form of Christianity after the C of E synod approved women priests
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,774
    edited May 30
    Final result of the night is a Con gain from Indy in Maldon with LD second close behind and Reform third
    CON 41.1%(+23.8) LIBD 36.4%(+1.7) REF 16.7%
    GREEN 5.8%
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197
    edited May 30
    "This is the moment Robert Jenrick confronted fare dodgers on the London Underground, asking if one of them was carrying a knife. The shadow justice secretary shared footage of himself approaching three men at Stratford station in an attempt to show the extent of lawbreaking in the capital. He can be heard asking one of them if they have a knife on them - as he questions why they think it is alright not to pay. "

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14760909/Moment-Robert-Jenrick-asks-fare-dodger-carrying-KNIFE-confronts-brazen-passengers-jump-Tube-barriers.html

    This of course is the reason why most people don't confront the fare dodgers, in case they have a knife.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,815
    edited May 30

    Final result of the night is a Con gain from Indy in Maldon with LD second close behind and Reform third
    CON 41.1%(+23.8) LIBD 36.4%(+1.7) REF 16.7%
    GREEN 5.8%

    Exceptional result for the Tories in Maldon, clearly they squeezed the ex Indy vote hard
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,774
    edited May 30
    HYUFD said:

    Final result of the night is a Con gain from Indy in Maldon with LD second close behind and Reform third
    CON 41.1%(+23.8) LIBD 36.4%(+1.7) REF 16.7%
    GREEN 5.8%

    Exceptional result for the Tories in Maldon, clearly they squeezed the ex Indy vote hard
    They had a similar result in Maldon North in March with Reform again more muted. Their vote was also up in Canvey island despite Reform romping home. Tentative signs for them that Essex vote is holding up?

    Edit - worth remembering Maldon was one of the safest seats in the country in 2019 with Tories netting 72%!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,296

    HYUFD said:

    Final result of the night is a Con gain from Indy in Maldon with LD second close behind and Reform third
    CON 41.1%(+23.8) LIBD 36.4%(+1.7) REF 16.7%
    GREEN 5.8%

    Exceptional result for the Tories in Maldon, clearly they squeezed the ex Indy vote hard
    They had a similar result in Maldon North in March with Reform again more muted. Their vote was also up in Canvey island despite Reform romping home. Tentative signs for them that Essex vote is holding up?

    Edit - worth remembering Maldon was one of the safest seats in the country in 2019 with Tories netting 72%!
    You were doing okay till you added the unneeded edit.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,060

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Trumps Tariffs reinstated by the appeal court.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1928167506478322081?s=61

    Which Appeal Court was this?

    The original ruling was from a panel of 3 judges from the total 9 Judges on the Court of International Trade.

    Was it an actual Appeal Court, or an En Banc hearing (= all the Judges).
    The judgement seems off to me - because of the timings. Either the President has the power to impose tariffs or he doesn't. If he doesn't, why did anyone think he did? If he does, you can't just recind that right because he's doing it 'a bit too much'. It makes no sense.
    Logic is:

    Trump’s tariffs are universal and permanent.

    If law he is relying on permits that then it is unconstitutional as Congress doesn’t have the right to delegate power.

    If the rights he has been granted under the law are limited then he has exceeded them
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,197
    Even the Guardian is talking about fare dodgers and Robert Jenrick's efforts to confront them.

    "Robert Jenrick turns vigilante in bid to tackle London’s fare dodgers
    Tory MP claims ‘law breaking is out of control’ in video in which he accosts travellers on the underground"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/29/robert-jenrick-turns-vigilante-in-bid-to-tackle-londons-fare-dodgers
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,774
    Lots for Reform and a little for LDs and Tories in tonights locals
    Nothing for Labour. Nature is healing.
    Labour look finished in Wales.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,451
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1928244171460247762

    I am having a Press Conference tomorrow at 1:30 P.M. EST, with Elon Musk, at the Oval Office. This will be his last day, but not really, because he will, always, be with us, helping all the way. Elon is terrific! See you tomorrow at the White House.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,307
    Andy_JS said:

    "This is the moment Robert Jenrick confronted fare dodgers on the London Underground, asking if one of them was carrying a knife. The shadow justice secretary shared footage of himself approaching three men at Stratford station in an attempt to show the extent of lawbreaking in the capital. He can be heard asking one of them if they have a knife on them - as he questions why they think it is alright not to pay. "

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14760909/Moment-Robert-Jenrick-asks-fare-dodger-carrying-KNIFE-confronts-brazen-passengers-jump-Tube-barriers.html

    This of course is the reason why most people don't confront the fare dodgers, in case they have a knife.

    I suspect very few do and, if they do, it'd be odd for them to use it at the drop of a hat - it's normally gang clashes that trigger that - but, still, who's going to want to take that risk?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,977

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Trumps Tariffs reinstated by the appeal court.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1928167506478322081?s=61

    Which Appeal Court was this?

    The original ruling was from a panel of 3 judges from the total 9 Judges on the Court of International Trade.

    Was it an actual Appeal Court, or an En Banc hearing (= all the Judges).
    The judgement seems off to me - because of the timings. Either the President has the power to impose tariffs or he doesn't. If he doesn't, why did anyone think he did? If he does, you can't just recind that right because he's doing it 'a bit too much'. It makes no sense.
    Logic is:

    Trump’s tariffs are universal and permanent.

    If law he is relying on permits that then it is unconstitutional as Congress doesn’t have the right to delegate power.

    If the rights he has been granted under the law are limited then he has exceeded them
    Specifically: tariffs are taxes, and the Executive has no constitutional right to levy taxes. That is a power reserved to Congress.

    However, Congress passed a narrow exception to that where the President is allowed to impose temporary tariffs on individual countries in the event of a national emergency.

    The court cases are about whether Trump's actions exceed the authority granted to him by Congress.
  • vikvik Posts: 442
    More In Common & Find Out Now appear to be replicating Yougov's finding of a strong movement towards Reform in their Scotland sub-samples.

    Find Out Now : Reform 32%, SNP 28%, Labour 13%, Cons 12%

    https://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/05/28th-May-VI-Find-Out-Now.xlsx

    More In Common: Reform 24%, SNP 24%, Labour 16%, Cons 16%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/1xxnonjy/votingintention26may.xlsx

    News article about the poll: https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/reform-uk-now-level-snp-35308063
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