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Scottish subsample watch – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    edited May 30

    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Trumps Tariffs reinstated by the appeal court.

    https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1928167506478322081?s=61

    Which Appeal Court was this?

    The original ruling was from a panel of 3 judges from the total 9 Judges on the Court of International Trade.

    Was it an actual Appeal Court, or an En Banc hearing (= all the Judges).
    The judgement seems off to me - because of the timings. Either the President has the power to impose tariffs or he doesn't. If he doesn't, why did anyone think he did? If he does, you can't just recind that right because he's doing it 'a bit too much'. It makes no sense.
    Logic is:

    Trump’s tariffs are universal and permanent.

    If law he is relying on permits that then it is unconstitutional as Congress doesn’t have the right to delegate power.

    If the rights he has been granted under the law are limited then he has exceeded them
    Congress does have the right to delegate power on tariffs. There is previous SC precedent on that:
    https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48435

    But it must legislate to do so.
    It hasn't.

    Instead, Trump is relying on an emergency power, which Congress has waived its requirement to review for 12 months using a procedural trick.

    Which is why the car and steel tariffs were allowed to stand by the court decision.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    For now, these can be sourced indirectly.
    But this leaves the west - and particularly Europe - with a large strategic problem.
    We simply don't have the existing mass manufacturing capacity to replace this.

    That needs to change.

    China has stopped selling Mavic drones to 🇺🇦Ukraine, instead supplying them to the 🇷🇺Russian Federation, – Zelensky.

    These drones are even manufactured on Russian lines with the presence of Chinese specialists. The information was confirmed by European intelligence, noting that China has also restricted the sale of parts for drones to the West. The Chinese Foreign Ministry denies this.

    https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1928076281138032946
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 849
    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
    It does show that Farage is willing to take risks, think outside the box & present a bold vision.

    It might also lead to a flood of donations from Crypto Bros, which might be very helpful for Reform's finances.
    As an ex-metals trader, he understands pump and dump.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,563
    Reform gain from Labour in Carmarthenshire

    Sir Drears speech really hit the spot then !

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928222981307703731?s=61
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,563
    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,977
    Taz said:

    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61

    It's weird, but it does seem like the world is coming down to Libdems v Reform.

    It's like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,508
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61

    It's weird, but it does seem like the world is coming down to Libdems v Reform.

    It's like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.
    I think it is a particularly deep anti Liberal prejudice that regards that choice between opposites as some kind of a twofer.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,508
    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1928199370589028618

    'We are going to launch a crypto revolution in Britain.'

    Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage has unveiled a new initiative — the Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill — which his party has drafted and will actively campaign for.

    I wonder if there was someone in 1630s Amsterdam who proclaimed they were going to launch a "Tulip Revolution".
    It does show that Farage is willing to take risks, think outside the box & present a bold vision.

    It might also lead to a flood of donations from Crypto Bros, which might be very helpful for Reform's finances.
    The electoral commission may take a pretty dim view, if donors can not be identified or validated though
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,592
    edited May 30
    Taz said:

    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61

    with Labour in sixth place….

    Newhaven North, LEWES DC
    LIB DEM HOLD
    LDM, 697, 51.7%
    Refuk, 389, 28.9%
    Green, 122, 9.1%
    Con, 59, 4.4%
    Ind, 57, 4.2%
    Lab, 23, 1.7%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,827

    TfL's reaction is simply hilarious. We are seeing two things here:

    (1) Classic institutional embarrassment at being caught out - so their first reaction is to close ranks and try and shoot the messenger. We have seen this so many times before, like with the Post Office, the National Coal Board, the Met, South Yorkshire police, Rotherham and the NHS scandals. The fact this never works, looks petulant and tone-deaf, and always makez it worse never seems to change this fascinating psychological behaviour of human in-groups.
    (2) Sadiq Khan is really pissed off about it. TfL is his plaything, for his political purposes and no-one else's, and is thoroughly irritated that a rival like Jenrick has beaten him at his own game - particularly since he said his objective was to expose his failings. Of course, any "permission" (lol) would never have been granted if requested. Since TfL is controlled by the Mayor this is setting the tone from the top down.

    TfL will be forced to respond, and Sadiq can only hope now he makes himself look less of a tit than usual in doing it. Through gritted teeth.

    WRT (1), I think Kipling’s General Summary is one of the best explanations for human behaviour I’ve ever read.

    “We are very slightly changed, from the semi-apes that ranged, India’s prehistoric clay…”

    So often, institutional behaviour is cruel, stupid, and self-defeating.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    .
    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61

    It's weird, but it does seem like the world is coming down to Libdems v Reform.

    It's like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.
    I think it is a particularly deep anti Liberal prejudice that regards that choice between opposites as some kind of a twofer.
    I'm sure rcs was merely joking.


    Great Reform fan that he is. 😊
  • vikvik Posts: 442
    There was a lot of reporting about Trump's loss in the Court of International Trade, and the subsequent freezing of that judgement by the Appeals Court, but Trump has also suffered a second loss related to the tariffs in another court.

    The second strike against the president’s use of the emergency powers act came in a decision by U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras in federal court in D.C.

    In a case brought by two small businesses, Learning Resources and hand2mind, Contreras rejected the government’s request to transfer the case to the [Court of International Trade] in New York. The plaintiffs would suffer “irreparable harm” and an “existential threat” to their businesses if the tariffs were allowed to stand.

    “This case is not about tariffs qua tariffs. It is about whether IEEPA enables the president to unilaterally impose, revoke, pause, reinstate, and adjust tariffs to reorder the global economy. The Court agrees with Plaintiffs that it does not,” Contreras wrote, using the acronym for the emergency powers act.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/29/trump-tariff-trade-emergency-powers-court/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    vik said:

    There was a lot of reporting about Trump's loss in the Court of International Trade, and the subsequent freezing of that judgement by the Appeals Court, but Trump has also suffered a second loss related to the tariffs in another court.

    The second strike against the president’s use of the emergency powers act came in a decision by U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras in federal court in D.C.

    In a case brought by two small businesses, Learning Resources and hand2mind, Contreras rejected the government’s request to transfer the case to the [Court of International Trade] in New York. The plaintiffs would suffer “irreparable harm” and an “existential threat” to their businesses if the tariffs were allowed to stand.

    “This case is not about tariffs qua tariffs. It is about whether IEEPA enables the president to unilaterally impose, revoke, pause, reinstate, and adjust tariffs to reorder the global economy. The Court agrees with Plaintiffs that it does not,” Contreras wrote, using the acronym for the emergency powers act.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/29/trump-tariff-trade-emergency-powers-court/

    That's slightly more problematic.
    Can the courts rule on the irrationality of presidential decisions which would otherwise be legal ?

    An interesting question for the SC.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,695
    Andy_JS said:

    Even the Guardian is talking about fare dodgers and Robert Jenrick's efforts to confront them.

    "Robert Jenrick turns vigilante in bid to tackle London’s fare dodgers
    Tory MP claims ‘law breaking is out of control’ in video in which he accosts travellers on the underground"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/29/robert-jenrick-turns-vigilante-in-bid-to-tackle-londons-fare-dodgers

    Yes this looks like a brilliant stunt/way of raising awareness (delete as appropriate).
    Other politicians will be fuming they didn't think of it first.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    edited May 30
    As a way to "save" money, this is also completely insane.

    Hegseth orders Pentagon’s testing office staff cut by more than half
    https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5324874-reduction-pentagon-test-office/
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,197
    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61

    It's weird, but it does seem like the world is coming down to Libdems v Reform.

    It's like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.
    I think it is a particularly deep anti Liberal prejudice that regards that choice between opposites as some kind of a twofer.
    Well not really. I can't claim personal experience, but gonorrhea is surely much preferable to syphilis. This analogy isn't about a choice between two equally bad optioms but about a choice between a bad option and a worse one.
  • TazTaz Posts: 18,563
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61

    It's weird, but it does seem like the world is coming down to Libdems v Reform.

    It's like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.
    It’s like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case. Both are awful and it would be good if neither won.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,584
    Andy_JS said:

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
    17 years ago surely?

    For whatever reason, we've never really recovered from Brown's financial crisis - that's what broke this country more than anything.

    We should have used it as an opportunity to deregulate throughout the economy, but especially on planning, and build far more houses and infrastructure. Instead, we adopted soft-socialism with ever rising taxes and have suffered the inevitable stagnation and slow decline.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,080
    Had the liberals partial ancestor, the SDP, won in 1983, we would be living in a far better-balanced country now,, I suspect.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,080
    Ed Davey looks like Plato next to Farage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,977
    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Reform gain in Canvey island in a local by election

    Lib Dem’s held a seat in Lewes too

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1928227350237352042?s=61

    It's weird, but it does seem like the world is coming down to Libdems v Reform.

    It's like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhea.
    I think it is a particularly deep anti Liberal prejudice that regards that choice between opposites as some kind of a twofer.
    Well not really. I can't claim personal experience, but gonorrhea is surely much preferable to syphilis. This analogy isn't about a choice between two equally bad optioms but about a choice between a bad option and a worse one.
    You seem to know a lot about this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,171

    NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 18,563

    Ed Davey looks like Plato next to Farage.

    Plato wasn’t a dumb twat who sold the Postmasters down the river and took no accoutability, and whose approach to election campaigning is to enact multiple pratfalls, a la Norman Wisdom, or was he ?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,891
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
    17 years ago surely?

    For whatever reason, we've never really recovered from Brown's financial crisis - that's what broke this country more than anything.

    We should have used it as an opportunity to deregulate throughout the economy, but especially on planning, and build far more houses and infrastructure. Instead, we adopted soft-socialism with ever rising taxes and have suffered the inevitable stagnation and slow decline.
    The global financial crisis driven by the subprime mortgage debt mountain. To call that Brown’s crisis is disingenuous. It was a game of global pass the parcel that had been playing out for years. Tory, Labour, Thatcherite, Wet, Socialist, they all played it.

    Who would have bought the houses? It was a credit crunch. What’s more austerity, much as it was and is the wrong choice is not ‘soft socialism’. I agree a ‘new deal’ approach wrt infrastructure may have been a more optimal response than austerity.

    Are you able to see anything from outside your narrow prejudices?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 849
    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    There was a lot of reporting about Trump's loss in the Court of International Trade, and the subsequent freezing of that judgement by the Appeals Court, but Trump has also suffered a second loss related to the tariffs in another court.

    The second strike against the president’s use of the emergency powers act came in a decision by U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras in federal court in D.C.

    In a case brought by two small businesses, Learning Resources and hand2mind, Contreras rejected the government’s request to transfer the case to the [Court of International Trade] in New York. The plaintiffs would suffer “irreparable harm” and an “existential threat” to their businesses if the tariffs were allowed to stand.

    “This case is not about tariffs qua tariffs. It is about whether IEEPA enables the president to unilaterally impose, revoke, pause, reinstate, and adjust tariffs to reorder the global economy. The Court agrees with Plaintiffs that it does not,” Contreras wrote, using the acronym for the emergency powers act.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/29/trump-tariff-trade-emergency-powers-court/

    That's slightly more problematic.
    Can the courts rule on the irrationality of presidential decisions which would otherwise be legal ?

    An interesting question for the SC.
    Wednesbury?
  • Battlebus said:

    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    There was a lot of reporting about Trump's loss in the Court of International Trade, and the subsequent freezing of that judgement by the Appeals Court, but Trump has also suffered a second loss related to the tariffs in another court.

    The second strike against the president’s use of the emergency powers act came in a decision by U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras in federal court in D.C.

    In a case brought by two small businesses, Learning Resources and hand2mind, Contreras rejected the government’s request to transfer the case to the [Court of International Trade] in New York. The plaintiffs would suffer “irreparable harm” and an “existential threat” to their businesses if the tariffs were allowed to stand.

    “This case is not about tariffs qua tariffs. It is about whether IEEPA enables the president to unilaterally impose, revoke, pause, reinstate, and adjust tariffs to reorder the global economy. The Court agrees with Plaintiffs that it does not,” Contreras wrote, using the acronym for the emergency powers act.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/05/29/trump-tariff-trade-emergency-powers-court/

    That's slightly more problematic.
    Can the courts rule on the irrationality of presidential decisions which would otherwise be legal ?

    An interesting question for the SC.
    Wednesbury?
    Wednesbury Unreasonableness is an English Courts concept. Don't think they have the same in the US. On the face of the evidence as presented in the UK media I DON'T think the administration's actions, would fail the Wednesbury test.

    After all, there has not been any serious challenge of the actions of the UK Chancellor since July 2024 and her actions have been self-evidently infinitely more damaging that anythingt Trump has done. The Wednesbury Test has to be related to actions so perverse that no right thinking person could think they were reasonable. It isn't stretching things too far to say that just about embaces govrnment policy since July 2025.

    For Liz Truss with the benefit of hindsight she should have given herself more time and sacked just about all of the top shelf Civil Servants, pour encourager les autres.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,819
    Fishing said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does he not remember who broke Britain? If he can't remember he must have Biden levels of age related neurological disorder.

    Am I wrong to find Jenrick even less appealing than Farage?
    Voters are probably more concerned about what anyone's going to do about it than who was to blame 15 years ago.
    17 years ago surely?

    For whatever reason, we've never really recovered from Brown's financial crisis - that's what broke this country more than anything.

    We should have used it as an opportunity to deregulate throughout the economy, but especially on planning, and build far more houses and infrastructure. Instead, we adopted soft-socialism with ever rising taxes and have suffered the inevitable stagnation and slow decline.
    Ironically this government, which is decried as useless compared with the Blair/Brown one, is actually making some steps in that direction.
    Inadequate though they may be.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,480
    HYUFD said:

    Ann Widdecombe: The Tories are finished

    https://youtu.be/ZcH87V11NNo

    Ann has switched parties to what she sees as a purer more orthodox version of conservatism ie from Tory to Reform much like she switched churches from the C of E to the Roman Catholic church for what she saw as a purer more orthodox form of Christianity after the C of E synod approved women priests
    She also switched from Tory to the Brexit Party (aka Reform) a long time ago - was it 2019?, so why would she anything about future Conservative success.
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