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Ars Longa, Vita Brevis – politicalbetting.com
Ars Longa, Vita Brevis – politicalbetting.com
“Never ask a question to which you don’t know the answer” is cross-examination’s golden rule. It means asking just what you need to establish the facts or argument necessary for your case. Described as forensic, lawyers-turned-politicians are over-praised for this skill, often undeservedly so.
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I have bolded the salient part.
Thinking about you, and I admire your strength so much. Please know you’re not alone xx
I have also been heavily involved in the hospital system recently and aware of a lot of distraction but much moved by a lot of care and kindness.
And I feel I must point out that the chocolate is only the lightest dusting.
It is indeed a beautiful and thought provoking piece from @Cyclefree who has contributed enormously to this site
All I can say is listen to your body, be kind to yourself, and know we all wish you all strength and love going forward
I’m certain that you will approach treatment with the same fierceness and strength with which you rage against the wrongs, especially the whole chocolate on coffee weirdness, and will roar back soon.
As it happens, I have been to Gay Odin and they certainly make very good chocolate
Every good wish for whatever happens next.
Best wishes for your health, I hope you can make a full and speedy recovery.
Make the most of the garden and any good weather.
Know that if you ever want to share your thoughts on here again, we appreciate you.
I wish you all the best, successful treatment and many more articles on here.
I was always a little confused what they were doing on this site though… out of the 282, how many were about betting or had betting-related implications?
Writing a book of her own sounds like the best way to go.
Highlights...
Everyone knows it's all over for KB. It's just a question of exactly which electoral calamities she is going to be the human shield for ahead of the inevitable binning. The bit about KB's giddyup speech after the locals was darkly amusing.
Johnson's Tonton Macoute in the party have identified 8 seats which they think he can win in a by-election if the incumbent were to step aside.
In an amazing development, apparently, the toothy doyenne of the Management Consultancy Industrial Complex, Laura Trott is being touted as a leadership candidate.
And while I do not put chocolate on my coffee, I do put milk in my green tea.
I think it would be bloody funny, if Boris was parachuted in for some "safe" Tory seat, only to lose in a landslide. The Christchurch by-election, all over again.
Another recommendation you made here was to read the short stories of William Trevor. I bought his collection some time ago and I have been deliberately reading it slowly because they are so good. One short story at a time so as to not get to the end too soon. I’ve neglected them for a while so I will pick up the book again when back home after this weekend.
Kind regards, St John
His allies are hoping one of the eight MPs who won more than 50 per cent of the vote in 2024 would stand aside for him.
I may be misreading the figures here
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
but I think the only seat where the Conservatives won an absolute majority is Bob Blackman's Harrow East. Part of the Conservative problem is that they still haven't internalised how deep in trouble they are.
Thanks for your detailed and informative articles and best wishes for your treatment
8 seats for Woofius Largicus? I mean i think he'd easily win Harrow East or Ruislip etc and if he stood in 2029 he'd walk Uxbridge or Hendon (currently Lab held). Presumably they are looking at the likes of Hertsmere (would Dowden stand aside?), Windsor? Away from London and surrounds ummmm Droitwich?
I guess they are figuring that polling which showed him as best to face Reform means he'd partially stop/reverse the vote loss to them in a by election. Harrow East or Ruislip are the only 2 id feel safe betting on him right now though
It's apparently not uncommon, but not easy to diagnose early, and under researched.
You can lobby your MP to do something about that.
https://www.lobularmoonshot.org/
Very best wishes for your treatment @Cyclefree.
I've always found your posts timely, on the nose and reassuring that someone critics how history repeats.
Definitely going to look out for your book,
All the best.
I am utterly certain that the thief with the amended HR record was “one of us”. Meanwhile, the same organisation was certainly grinding myriads of minions into the ground - “Hard luck, but it’s the process and we can’t change that”
To @Cyclefree on the personal level - the very best of luck. From multiple instances of similar things in my family - KBO, as Churchill is supposed to have said.
So, he might, but very very risky and if he runs and loses a safer seat its all over for the Tories, they become a rump minor party
As I've said before, I believe in the benefits of a ketogenic diet (basically Atkins) as a complement to medical treatment for cancer. Many (most I think?) cancers require glucose to live, but the body does not - it can thrive on the alternative fuel source of ketones. You should ask your oncologist about yours, and don't accept a dismissive answer.
It is a hard choice - a fully ketogenic diet isn't for wimps, and it's very easy for me to sit here and recommend it, but I do believe that starving the cancer can only improve your outcome. Even reducing sugar and carbs moderately might be a positive step. This is an interesting primer:
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6375425/
Remember that whatever your doctor tells you about other patients, you are not other patients - you are you.
All the very, very best. And I look forward to many more epic Cyclefree headers in the future.
On this concern:
"Above all, not wanting to worry my children because I should be supporting them. That feeling never ever goes away, no matter how old or settled or grown up your children appear to be."
you will no doubt learn that your children are themselves very capable of providing you with that support in return. Because you taught them well.
Looking forward in due course to hearing of your reports on your travels around Asia. Until then, let your garden help heal you.
Good luck. Come back and lecture us again, as soon as you can
Xx
SKS is the worst Prime Minister ever, and Labour must wish to be shot of him, but we don't get disgusted briefings every time he finishes the milk and doesn't tell anyone, or moodily fails to say 'good morning' to someone.
I understand Kemi's reticence given that this is the same lot that got her in, but she must now realise that it's time to clean the stables.
As for the wider question, I don't know what the fix is. We have a system where the selection criterion for getting a top job is being prepared to do anything to get a top job. They don't have to be the very worst people, but too often they are
What is the collective noun for Grima Wormtongues?
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/may/25/the-charts-that-show-just-how-worried-labour-should-be-about-the-polls
Left 48%
Centre/Independents 8%
Right 44%
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
Second things second. I think the return of Johnson would be the final straw for the Tories. In many ways Johnson is like Lloyd George, a big beast alright, but let down by cynical ambition. For any recovery in the red wall there would be collapse in the core Tory heartlands. Without a recovery in Surrey it doesn't matter about Stoke.
The Tories may already be too weak to recover, but bringing back Boris would turn the probability of Tory eclipse into a certainty. Without winning back the ABs going after the CD votes, already hotly contested with RefUK and Labour, is not going to work, in that clear sense, the polls are not to be trusted. Even if he found somecway back, Johnson, like L-G, may simply end up leading a rump with no future.
They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked.
Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
Boris had that bumbling charm which everyone got seriously sick of. If he brings that back doesn't it just remind everyone of partygate?
Boris brought us an oven-ready Brexit deal. He can't sell the same thing twice, especially now we Ogdenvilleans have had a taste of his monorail.
Boris offered to Build Back Better - a great slogan! But it was only ever a slogan, with broke councils being forced to spend money they couldn't afford to bit for a relatively small amount of cash which was offered everywhere and delivered nowhere.
So what is the pitch?
Sad news to start the day. I met @Cyclefree at a PB drinks gathering many moons ago - she could more than hold her own in the cut and thrust of debate.
Good luck and look after yourself and your family.
And a timely ending message.
I was re-reading Suella Braverman's piece on ending the 2 child cap, written back in 2023, and the cost is calculated at 2.4bn in 2024/25. But isn't it now 5bn in 2025/26? Crazy difference.
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
Wall End is strongly Labour - at the July 2023 by election, the Conservatives polled a respectable 27% while Labour got 61% and Reform got 2%.
I think when we talk about "the Hindu vote" in Harrow East, we mean the wealthy Hindu vote. If I had to generalise (and it would probably be true of most religous and ethnic groups) the rich tend to vote Conservative, the poor tend to vote Labour. The Hindus are no exception.
This is my message to housebuilders: get on with it.
If you promise homes, you have to build them.
As part of our Plan for Change, we’re introducing penalties if you don’t build them fast enough.
Kemi doesn't.
That's about it frankly.
Their welfarist promises are now bollox.
If they want to 'reform' something then how about some suggestions as to how to deal with generational inequality and the pandering to pensioners.
Rayner as leader probably can’t alter Labour’s fate. But she has got the charisma Starmer entirely lacks and she could save them from oblivion
The hole in our politics is exactly in the area of leadership who can be inspiring and real at the same time.
Charismatic and unreal is more attractive than dull, unreal and evasive. Which largely is what we have now.
The tide is certainly going out on mass migration into Europe generally, the longer the powers that be deny that obvious reality the worse the outfall.
I'm sure Blair will tell us Digital ID is the answer. Even if the question was 'who is that ridiculous grinning twit?'
What is the point of them?
The last election was probably a fatal blow from which they’ll never recover
🙏