“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
They are nowhere near as strong as they think they are imo and they will go backwards in seats at the next election is my prediction. That said, they aren't going back to the dark days of 2015 and 2017 and will likely win more seats than Paddy but fewer than Charlie or the Cleggasm They are not for my tastes.
Just catching up with PB to read @Cyclefree 's distressing news.
"So often in investigations there are overlooked clues." Sometimes, a disease such as this is undetectable until it is detected. An audit to check if there were missed signs is worthwhile, if only to reassure you that nothing was missed (if true). I speak from personal experience with my wife.
"The other similarity is learning how to deliver difficult messages. I admire the doctors and nurses who have spoken to me with great care and consideration." This is so true. I don't know how doctors cope with empathy at the same time as maintaining emotional boundaries to protect themselves. It's remarkable.
In the meantime, carpe diem. And you have a book to write.
A line from Sam Freedman that nails Farage's superpower;
A billionaire businessman in Mayfair and a hard-up single mum in Grimsby can both imagine Farage would govern in their interests.
Ultimately, he can't, because there aren't enough diversity officers to fill the gap between their different aspirations. But as long as Farage can be the political equivalent of Schrödinger's Cat, big state and tiny state at once, he will remain popular.
Centrists want the hard up to hate the rich, but the problem is they generally don’t. Which drives centrists mad
Bad news, sorry to hear it. If I’m up your way I’ll call in. I could talk you through chemo and its corollaries, it was a big part of my life a decade ago, but really I would want to talk about demands and rights.
I’m always on your side in the trans debate as a second or third wave feminist, I guess. But I’m not comfortable with sidelining the vulnerable and going by suicide rates, the trans community could do with a lot more joy.
There’s a tension there that will need to be accommodated eventually. The conversation is ongoing, individual demands, community expectations, all very interesting. I expect it will eventually settle.
Anyway, take it steady, enjoy the gulls, the view, and give yourself every kindness.
A line from Sam Freedman that nails Farage's superpower;
A billionaire businessman in Mayfair and a hard-up single mum in Grimsby can both imagine Farage would govern in their interests.
Ultimately, he can't, because there aren't enough diversity officers to fill the gap between their different aspirations. But as long as Farage can be the political equivalent of Schrödinger's Cat, big state and tiny state at once, he will remain popular.
Centrists want the hard up to hate the rich, but the problem is they generally don’t. Which drives centrists mad
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
I think that's why Reform might be different. They are both anti-establishment and pro-pensioner. Indeed, the news today about Farage reinstating the WFP demonstrates that - the messaging is deliberately stoking a victim-complex in that cohort.
If Reform can maneuver into being the party of the minted "endless whiners" then they will win the election. And then it will all unravel.
Reform have won control over several councils. If their upward trend continues, they may even win Wales. We will be able to see how they perform, and whether it's any better (or worse) than what came before.
They might be better off not winning Wales, if they form an administration there and it's a disaster it may cost them in 2029. Of course if there's 30 months of delirious Taffy's on the telly..........
If they form an administration and it's a disaster it will be an improvement.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
Weird on such a day we are still producing 2.26GW from gas. Presumably we are being caught by insufficient storage again and have nowhere to put it. That is unfortunate and a lesson for the future because, hopefully, as the new windfarms come online, days like this should be less rare going forward.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
I think that's why Reform might be different. They are both anti-establishment and pro-pensioner. Indeed, the news today about Farage reinstating the WFP demonstrates that - the messaging is deliberately stoking a victim-complex in that cohort.
If Reform can maneuver into being the party of the minted "endless whiners" then they will win the election. And then it will all unravel.
Reform have won control over several councils. If their upward trend continues, they may even win Wales. We will be able to see how they perform, and whether it's any better (or worse) than what came before.
They might be better off not winning Wales, if they form an administration there and it's a disaster it may cost them in 2029. Of course if there's 30 months of delirious Taffy's on the telly..........
If they form an administration and it's a disaster it will be an improvement.
All the very best to Cyclefree, and I hope she will ontinue to grace us with her thoughts from time to time.
As a fairly healthy couple in our 70s, we also have the challenge of helping to judge when the balance shifts between supporting the next generations and letting them support us. The answer is clearly very individual and right now I think Cyclefree should accept support and caring from her family, as the balance of need has clearly shifted for the moment. But it's always easy to advise others, harder to do it...
Thoughts go out to @Cyclefree and you will be sorely missed as your presence is reduced, though hopefully a shorter period than you fear. I will certainly have a word in the ear of the goddess on your behalf next time I grant her an audience.
Secondly and much less importantly for all those fearing the normal 3 parties losing their grip on the electorate and what happens next.
Tough you lot have held power between you for a huge number of decades, your parties are why this country is in the mess it is in currently. Thinking we little people (I discount most on PB as little people as mostly people here are top 10%ers from things they say) should continue to vote for lab,ld,con....because something worse might happen you forget for a lot of us something worse happens anyway everytime one of your parties gets elected.
Now I have no great confidence in either the greens or reform actually achieving anything useful and if either were to get a majority its 80% likely the country will get worse for the bottom half. However the thing you are neglecting is that means there is at least a chance it gets better for the bottom half. Pit that against knowing from decades of experience voting in ld,con,lab gives a 100% chance that things will be getting worse for them and the fact they have little left to lose on to what the comfortably off here see as an insane wager and you can see their point.
Sometimes a house is beyond repair and needs to be demolished and rebuilt, maybe the same is true of nations
Yes that’s exactly right. John Curtice (PBUH) says as much in the Guardian article I linked earlier, on Labour’s woes. A lot of British people have had enough. It’s like a car you take to be MOT’d and the repair guy shakes his head sadly and says “well, you COULD do this and this, and also that, and you need new doors, also a windscreen, and the brakes have gone…”
Enough. To the scrap heap. Start again
You of all of us (with your incessant country-bothering) should know how far we still have to fall, though, before we can 'start again'.
Also, when we start again we are very unlikely to have the advantages of eg untold riches of concentrated buried energy.
Hence you don't really mean 'start again'. You mean 'could all these bothersome poor people please go away?'
No I mean something like Douglas Carswell’s Plan for Britain. I’ve linked to it often enough. A comprehensive retooling of the state, a destruction of the Woke Establishment, a dismantling of the migrant/asylum complex, and so on
The bit I do have some time for is the remigration stuff. If we actually offered people a realistic plan to return home with dignity and rebuild their lives in safety I can see that it could benefit all concerned.
Except that it's often being proposed by the same fools who think we should get rid of the sorts of programmes that would reduce the need for people to migrate in the first place. Which are not only cheaper but achieve the same thing as remigration without the human cost of migration in the first place.
That's just on a skim read - I shall do you the credit of actually reading Carswell's plan properly and come back to you.
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
Weird on such a day we are still producing 2.26GW from gas. Presumably we are being caught by insufficient storage again and have nowhere to put it. That is unfortunate and a lesson for the future because, hopefully, as the new windfarms come online days like this should be less rare going forward.
I'm curious about that too. I guess the cost of running them up and down isn't worth it.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
Weird on such a day we are still producing 2.26GW from gas. Presumably we are being caught by insufficient storage again and have nowhere to put it. That is unfortunate and a lesson for the future because, hopefully, as the new windfarms come online days like this should be less rare going forward.
I'm curious about that too. I guess the cost of running them up and down isn't worth it.
Gas plants are reasonably easy to switch on and off. I don't think that will be it. But we still produce gas and if, as I have suggested, storage is already full we really have to burn it. We need more storage to protect us from the vicissitudes of the market, the risks to supply and now, on the upside, so we can maximise our return on renewables. It's the sort of no brainer we are really not very good at.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
Nope. You honour the vote whilst you can command a majority in the House of Commons. That's the rules of the game and you can whine about them as much as you like but it doesn't change anything. The system worked perfectly. Two parties committed to a second referendum were defeated by one who wanted to implement Brexit as soon as possible. Then we left the EU.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
Quite right. Every democratic system has to have a supreme authority somewhere. Ours is parliament. If you accept that - as British democrats of all persuasions have done over centuries - then Leon's argument (such as it is) simply crumbles to dust.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
It's the ditching of her sacred cow to try and shore up votes that will spook the markets, not whatever she puts in its place. There is no possible argument she can make that it's fine to ditch what she'd claimed was the only thing holding off armageddon within a year. At best its her admitting she hasn't got a clue what she's doing.which they won't be excited by
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
The bond markets have already gone 'Truss-like' - they are worse.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
It’s very simple - a Chancellor has two choices. Tax and spend. Or not spend and not tax.
The markets would be pretty ok if the government said we are putting up every tax to fund the NHS. Yes, you take a political hit - but nothing is free.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
Nope. You honour the vote whilst you can command a majority in the House of Commons. That's the rules of the game and you can whine about them as much as you like but it doesn't change anything. The system worked perfectly. Two parties committed to a second referendum were defeated by one who wanted to implement Brexit as soon as possible. Then we left the EU.
Yes, the dangerous things were trying to dismiss the referendum result as "advisory", surely the most desperate, feeble, snidey thing any political movement has tried, then blocking every deal from 2017-2019 in order to get a second referendum before enacting the result of the first. Winning a GE on a manifesto pledge to stay in the EU despite Leave winning would be fair enough, but it was doomed to fail, as it did
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
We simply cannot afford to keep borrowing £12bn a month whatever framework we operate. And assuming that the market is going to be relaxed about that increasing by some slightly more lax rules to give our politicians "headroom" is far more dangerous than we are willing to admit. We are teetering on the brink of a genuine crisis here and none of our political class are willing to admit it because they are all culpable.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
We simply cannot afford to keep borrowing £12bn a month whatever framework we operate. And assuming that the market is going to be relaxed about that increasing by some slightly more lax rules to give our politicians "headroom" is far more dangerous than we are willing to admit. We are teetering on the brink of a genuine crisis here and none of our political class are willing to admit it because they are all culpable.
The markets would be far happier if they raise taxes, I think
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
Nope. You honour the vote whilst you can command a majority in the House of Commons. That's the rules of the game and you can whine about them as much as you like but it doesn't change anything. The system worked perfectly. Two parties committed to a second referendum were defeated by one who wanted to implement Brexit as soon as possible. Then we left the EU.
It’s delusional. You would have destroyed British democracy overnight. Why bother voting for anything ever again if the powers-that-be can just change their minds and overrule the vote?
Madness. Utter madness. And profoundly evil
Deep down you know this but you can’t cope with the cognitive dissonance of knowing you supported this insanity so you lurch into denial
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
Pretty much perfect conditions today- breezy but not crazily so, plenty of clear skies and about a month from the solstice. And there is the gradual steady increase in areas of solar panels and numbers of wind turbines.
The next bit- which is going to be genuinely interesting to watch- is when there is enough "please, take it off us" electricity on enough days for a business ecosystem to grow around it. I suspect we're getting close, which is why domestic batteries are becoming popular, but not quite there yet.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
Pretty much perfect conditions today- breezy but not crazily so, plenty of clear skies and about a month from the solstice. And there is the gradual steady increase in areas of solar panels and numbers of wind turbines.
The next bit- which is going to be genuinely interesting to watch- is when there is enough "please, take it off us" electricity on enough days for a business ecosystem to grow around it. I suspect we're getting close, which is why domestic batteries are becoming popular, but not quite there yet.
EDF have given us, for the third Sunday in a row, free electricity from 8.00am to midnight because, wait for it, we have a smart meter. !!!!
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
We simply cannot afford to keep borrowing £12bn a month whatever framework we operate. And assuming that the market is going to be relaxed about that increasing by some slightly more lax rules to give our politicians "headroom" is far more dangerous than we are willing to admit. We are teetering on the brink of a genuine crisis here and none of our political class are willing to admit it because they are all culpable.
The markets would be far happier if they raise taxes, I think
The scale of the problem is so massive we clearly need to do both. Substantial cuts in public spending AND significant increases in taxes. But I agree that the emphasis should be on the tax and that the markets would prefer that to promises of cuts that never actually materialise or end up costing more than they save.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
It's the ditching of her sacred cow to try and shore up votes that will spook the markets, not whatever she puts in its place. There is no possible argument she can make that it's fine to ditch what she'd claimed was the only thing holding off armageddon within a year. At best its her admitting she hasn't got a clue what she's doing.which they won't be excited by
The current fiscal rules involve bogus nonsense about meeting a target in the future which rolls forward one year every 12 months and is always out of reach apart from a bogus promise about the coming years.
'Change' to the fiscal rules in ordinary English = borrowing a great deal more than we already have borrowed in order to spend money we don't have which we magically think our grandchildren will be able to pay back even though we can't even think about paying back any of the trillions we have already borrowed, because we are borrowing more money to pay the interest on the previous borrowings.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
To be fair as Barnesian said if the LDs had won a majority to abandon Brexit they would have had a mandate for that under our parliamentary system.
Indeed of course it was not even the 2016 Leave vote which actually delivered Brexit anyway but the Conservative majority of 2019 with a manifesto commitment for it.
As we are a parliamentary representative democracy not a direct democracy personally I would never hold another referendum again
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
Nope. You honour the vote whilst you can command a majority in the House of Commons. That's the rules of the game and you can whine about them as much as you like but it doesn't change anything. The system worked perfectly. Two parties committed to a second referendum were defeated by one who wanted to implement Brexit as soon as possible. Then we left the EU.
It’s delusional. You would have destroyed British democracy overnight. Why bother voting for anything ever again if the powers-that-be can just change their minds and overrule the vote?
Madness. Utter madness. And profoundly evil
Deep down you know this but you can’t cope with the cognitive dissonance of knowing you supported this insanity so you lurch into denial
Tell it to your man Nigel when he's PM. His anti-democratic inclinations are clear for all to see - smearing a political opponent to get him imprisoned, for example.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
It’s very simple - a Chancellor has two choices. Tax and spend. Or not spend and not tax.
The markets would be pretty ok if the government said we are putting up every tax to fund the NHS. Yes, you take a political hit - but nothing is free.
Not spend and tax might be the only way out of the massive deficit and debt pile she’s sitting on.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
Nope. You honour the vote whilst you can command a majority in the House of Commons. That's the rules of the game and you can whine about them as much as you like but it doesn't change anything. The system worked perfectly. Two parties committed to a second referendum were defeated by one who wanted to implement Brexit as soon as possible. Then we left the EU.
It’s delusional. You would have destroyed British democracy overnight. Why bother voting for anything ever again if the powers-that-be can just change their minds and overrule the vote?
Madness. Utter madness. And profoundly evil
Deep down you know this but you can’t cope with the cognitive dissonance of knowing you supported this insanity so you lurch into denial
But if you have a general election won by a party on ignoring the referendum? In the end it was all academic as the Lib Dems had no chance of winning it.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
All true, but there was a 41 year gap. A generation needs to elapse before you should seriously revisit a massive constitutional change sanctioned by a referendum. Same goes for ScotIndy.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
There's an interesting article on tory machinations in the ST this morning.
Highlights...
Everyone knows it's all over for KB. It's just a question of exactly which electoral calamities she is going to be the human shield for ahead of the inevitable binning. The bit about KB's giddyup speech after the locals was darkly amusing.
Johnson's Tonton Macoute in the party have identified 8 seats which they think he can win in a by-election if the incumbent were to step aside.
In an amazing development, apparently, the toothy doyenne of the Management Consultancy Industrial Complex, Laura Trott is being touted as a leadership candidate.
Well, the voters might take a very different view.
I think it would be bloody funny, if Boris was parachuted in for some "safe" Tory seat, only to lose in a landslide. The Christchurch by-election, all over again.
Given a recent More in Common poll had a Boris led party not only overtaking Labour but overtaking Reform too to take the lead highly unlikely. Indeed if Boris stood in a by election in a Conservative seat he would almost certainly increase the Conservative majority
That poll was taken before the post LE poll movement and in any case if 'accurate' shows a big move to Reform since July 2024 with the Boris Boosted Tories up 1.5% from the same. So, he might, but very very risky and if he runs and loses a safer seat its all over for the Tories, they become a rump minor party
Given the Tories are 3rd or even 4th in some polls the Tories can't play safe. 16% under PR would be manageable, the Tories would still get 100 odd MPs, 16% under FPTP sees most Tory MPs lose their seats.
Of course it is not just Boris who MiC found gave the Tories a poll boost, MiC also found Sunak would get the Tories back to 24% as they got at the GE and tied with Reform and Rishi is still an MP.
Jenrick however polled 1% below Kemi, even if he won 2% from Reform he turned centrists off so doesn't look like he is the answer either, there is no point trying to out Farage Farage while he leads Reform
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
It’s very simple - a Chancellor has two choices. Tax and spend. Or not spend and not tax.
The markets would be pretty ok if the government said we are putting up every tax to fund the NHS. Yes, you take a political hit - but nothing is free.
Not spend and tax might be the only way out of the massive deficit and debt pile she’s sitting on.
It seems to me that all political parties, including Reform, LDs and the Greens, with any aspiration at all to power tend to disguise and hide the fiscal realities about debt, deficit, tax and spend, and avoid a reasonable honest public debate. This is simple to do, as most people (including huge numbers of MPs) just prefer not to know or care.
The reason? It is in their common short term interest not to draw attention to it, so the can is kicked down the road.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
Nope. You honour the vote whilst you can command a majority in the House of Commons. That's the rules of the game and you can whine about them as much as you like but it doesn't change anything. The system worked perfectly. Two parties committed to a second referendum were defeated by one who wanted to implement Brexit as soon as possible. Then we left the EU.
It’s delusional. You would have destroyed British democracy overnight. Why bother voting for anything ever again if the powers-that-be can just change their minds and overrule the vote?
Madness. Utter madness. And profoundly evil
Deep down you know this but you can’t cope with the cognitive dissonance of knowing you supported this insanity so you lurch into denial
You know that you are losing this argument! Hence the hyperbole. "Profoundly evil"! I'd quietly change the subject if I were you.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
We simply cannot afford to keep borrowing £12bn a month whatever framework we operate. And assuming that the market is going to be relaxed about that increasing by some slightly more lax rules to give our politicians "headroom" is far more dangerous than we are willing to admit. We are teetering on the brink of a genuine crisis here and none of our political class are willing to admit it because they are all culpable.
The markets would be far happier if they raise taxes, I think
The scale of the problem is so massive we clearly need to do both. Substantial cuts in public spending AND significant increases in taxes. But I agree that the emphasis should be on the tax and that the markets would prefer that to promises of cuts that never actually materialise or end up costing more than they save.
All you have to do is find a way of winning an election after doing that, as that Belgian said.
Two things follow from that, I reckon.
One is that Rishi'n'Jez really blotted their copybook at the end of their time in office. The final fantasy budgets made the problem worse in a failed attempt to stave off electoral disaster. The brave and correct thing to do would have been to fix some of the fiscal damage, on the 'Mr Zellaby in the Midwich Cuckoos' principle.
The other is that Farage (big tax cuts plus goodies) is exerting a power that makes the problem harder to fix. Because he can deny arithmetic, everyone else has to.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
As someone who voted for Brexit and still thinks it was the right thing to do I disagree with this. The Lib Dems and others who want to rejoin have every right to campaign for what they believe, just as the assorted fruitcakes (initially) who wanted to overturn the 1975 decision did. It's called democracy and it was a seriously long journey to get that minority view to a majority.
I suspect any decision to reverse the decision will be equally long. The EU does not look as attractive as it did when we left economically or in terms of democracy. I very much doubt that they would want us back in any event. They must have wearied of British angst on the subject. We really don't have a spare £40bn a year to chip into the pot. Closer cooperation, particularly on defence and trade will hopefully be the way forward to our mutual benefit.
There's an interesting article on tory machinations in the ST this morning.
Highlights...
Everyone knows it's all over for KB. It's just a question of exactly which electoral calamities she is going to be the human shield for ahead of the inevitable binning. The bit about KB's giddyup speech after the locals was darkly amusing.
Johnson's Tonton Macoute in the party have identified 8 seats which they think he can win in a by-election if the incumbent were to step aside.
In an amazing development, apparently, the toothy doyenne of the Management Consultancy Industrial Complex, Laura Trott is being touted as a leadership candidate.
Well, the voters might take a very different view.
I think it would be bloody funny, if Boris was parachuted in for some "safe" Tory seat, only to lose in a landslide. The Christchurch by-election, all over again.
Given a recent More in Common poll had a Boris led party not only overtaking Labour but overtaking Reform too to take the lead highly unlikely. Indeed if Boris stood in a by election in a Conservative seat he would almost certainly increase the Conservative majority
That poll was taken before the post LE poll movement and in any case if 'accurate' shows a big move to Reform since July 2024 with the Boris Boosted Tories up 1.5% from the same. So, he might, but very very risky and if he runs and loses a safer seat its all over for the Tories, they become a rump minor party
Given the Tories are 3rd or even 4th in some polls the Tories can't play safe. 16% under PR would be manageable, the Tories would still get 100 odd MPs, 16% under FPTP sees most Tory MPs lose their seats.
Of course it is not just Boris who MiC found gave the Tories a poll boost, MiC also found Sunak would get the Tories back to 24% as they got at the GE and tied with Reform and Rishi is still an MP.
Jenrick however polled 1% below Kemi, even if he won 2% from Reform he turned centrists off so doesn't look like he is the answer either, there is no point trying to out Farage Farage while he leads Reform
I never set much store by hypothetical polls.
Remember all the polls saying that many Republicans would switch from Trump if he were convicted of a felony? In the end, none of them did.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
What Cameron didn't tell us was that he didn't plan to stay on to implement the choice. That was the great betrayal.
And on your point, though I think it was right to leave following the referendum (we should have joined EFTA/EEA/Norway, and that is still true) no politician however high flown their rhetoric can bind a future parliament.
Sending my warmest best wishes to cyclefree for a full recovery. Your articles are consistently thought provoking and exceptionally articulated. I look forward to reading more in the future.
There's an interesting article on tory machinations in the ST this morning.
Highlights...
Everyone knows it's all over for KB. It's just a question of exactly which electoral calamities she is going to be the human shield for ahead of the inevitable binning. The bit about KB's giddyup speech after the locals was darkly amusing.
Johnson's Tonton Macoute in the party have identified 8 seats which they think he can win in a by-election if the incumbent were to step aside.
In an amazing development, apparently, the toothy doyenne of the Management Consultancy Industrial Complex, Laura Trott is being touted as a leadership candidate.
Well, the voters might take a very different view.
I think it would be bloody funny, if Boris was parachuted in for some "safe" Tory seat, only to lose in a landslide. The Christchurch by-election, all over again.
Given a recent More in Common poll had a Boris led party not only overtaking Labour but overtaking Reform too to take the lead highly unlikely. Indeed if Boris stood in a by election in a Conservative seat he would almost certainly increase the Conservative majority
That poll was taken before the post LE poll movement and in any case if 'accurate' shows a big move to Reform since July 2024 with the Boris Boosted Tories up 1.5% from the same. So, he might, but very very risky and if he runs and loses a safer seat its all over for the Tories, they become a rump minor party
Given the Tories are 3rd or even 4th in some polls the Tories can't play safe. 16% under PR would be manageable, the Tories would still get 100 odd MPs, 16% under FPTP sees most Tory MPs lose their seats.
Of course it is not just Boris who MiC found gave the Tories a poll boost, MiC also found Sunak would get the Tories back to 24% as they got at the GE and tied with Reform and Rishi is still an MP.
Jenrick however polled 1% below Kemi, even if he won 2% from Reform he turned centrists off so doesn't look like he is the answer either, there is no point trying to out Farage Farage while he leads Reform
I never set much store by hypothetical polls.
Remember all the polls saying that many Republicans would switch from Trump if he were convicted of a felony? In the end, none of them did.
Well they were spot on in 2019 that Boris would win, spot on in 1990 Major would win etc.
Hypothetical polls beyond just named leader with add on questions may be irrelevant, though I think even those had the vast majority of Republicans sticking with Trump even if he was convicted (and of course his offence would probably have been charged as a misdemeanour anyway if it wasn't him)
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
We simply cannot afford to keep borrowing £12bn a month whatever framework we operate. And assuming that the market is going to be relaxed about that increasing by some slightly more lax rules to give our politicians "headroom" is far more dangerous than we are willing to admit. We are teetering on the brink of a genuine crisis here and none of our political class are willing to admit it because they are all culpable.
The markets would be far happier if they raise taxes, I think
The scale of the problem is so massive we clearly need to do both. Substantial cuts in public spending AND significant increases in taxes. But I agree that the emphasis should be on the tax and that the markets would prefer that to promises of cuts that never actually materialise or end up costing more than they save.
All you have to do is find a way of winning an election after doing that, as that Belgian said.
Two things follow from that, I reckon.
One is that Rishi'n'Jez really blotted their copybook at the end of their time in office. The final fantasy budgets made the problem worse in a failed attempt to stave off electoral disaster. The brave and correct thing to do would have been to fix some of the fiscal damage, on the 'Mr Zellaby in the Midwich Cuckoos' principle.
The other is that Farage (big tax cuts plus goodies) is exerting a power that makes the problem harder to fix. Because he can deny arithmetic, everyone else has to.
It is undoubtedly more difficult for our politicians to accuse Farage of fantasy economics when their entire program for government is also a fantasy and this, sadly, applies to all of the main parties.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
Under our system of parliamentary democracy, David Cameron could not mandate future governments. He was speaking for his government at the time. Not for all time. You're stuck with wrong idea in your brain about referenda. Move on.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
What Cameron didn't tell us was that he didn't plan to stay on to implement the choice. That was the great betrayal.
And on your point, though I think it was right to leave following the referendum (we should have joined EFTA/EEA/Norway, and that is still true) no politician however high flown their rhetoric can bind a future parliament.
Well yes. Of course
Indeed I believe the Lib Dems should put Rejoin in their next manifesto (after a referendum). A large chunk of Britons want this and they should be represented in parliament. And if the Lib Dems win power and win the referendum and we Rejoin - fair enough. That’s democracy
I’m not going to bang on about this any more because there is no debate to be had. I am inarguably correct. You can’t call a vote, solemnly vow to uphold the result - then ignore the vote. The biggest vote in British political history
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
Under our system of parliamentary democracy, David Cameron could not mandate future governments. He was speaking for his government at the time. Not for all time. You're stuck with wrong idea in your brain about referenda. Move on.
Has a Labour leader ever been forced out of office against their will? I don't think so. They either resign after losing an election or stand down voluntarily.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Has a Labour leader ever been forced out of office against their will? I don't think so. They either resign after losing an election or stand down voluntarily.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
What Cameron didn't tell us was that he didn't plan to stay on to implement the choice. That was the great betrayal.
And on your point, though I think it was right to leave following the referendum (we should have joined EFTA/EEA/Norway, and that is still true) no politician however high flown their rhetoric can bind a future parliament.
Well yes. Of course
Indeed I believe the Lib Dems should put Rejoin in their next manifesto (after a referendum). A large chunk of Britons want this and they should be represented in parliament. And if the Lib Dems win power and win the referendum and we Rejoin - fair enough. That’s democracy
I’m not going to bang on about this any more because there is no debate to be had. I am inarguably correct. You can’t call a vote, solemnly vow to uphold the result - then ignore the vote. The biggest vote in British political history
It’s bleedin’ obvious and not worth disputing
"The biggest vote in British political history"
That's not so. But if you think that is a killer point we should still be under John Major's government of 1992 which actually was the biggest vote in British political history.
33,551,983 people cast a vote in the 2016 referendum—which was 72% of all people registered to vote.
Slightly more votes—33,614,074—were cast in the 1992 general election, which was won by John Major’s Conservative Party.
78% of people registered to vote in 1992 did so, which is a higher turnout than in the 2016 referendum.
Has a Labour leader ever been forced out of office against their will? I don't think so. They either resign after losing an election or stand down voluntarily.
George Lansbury.
Beat me to it! Although he did resign before he was pushed And Ramsay Mac too
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
What Cameron didn't tell us was that he didn't plan to stay on to implement the choice. That was the great betrayal.
And on your point, though I think it was right to leave following the referendum (we should have joined EFTA/EEA/Norway, and that is still true) no politician however high flown their rhetoric can bind a future parliament.
Well yes. Of course
Indeed I believe the Lib Dems should put Rejoin in their next manifesto (after a referendum). A large chunk of Britons want this and they should be represented in parliament. And if the Lib Dems win power and win the referendum and we Rejoin - fair enough. That’s democracy
I’m not going to bang on about this any more because there is no debate to be had. I am inarguably correct. You can’t call a vote, solemnly vow to uphold the result - then ignore the vote. The biggest vote in British political history
It’s bleedin’ obvious and not worth disputing
"The biggest vote in British political history"
That's not so. But if you think that is a killer point we should still be under John Major's government of 1992 which actually was the biggest vote in British political history.
33,551,983 people cast a vote in the 2016 referendum—which was 72% of all people registered to vote.
Slightly more votes—33,614,074—were cast in the 1992 general election, which was won by John Major’s Conservative Party.
78% of people registered to vote in 1992 did so, which is a higher turnout than in the 2016 referendum.
Admit it. You're struggling.
I mean the Leave vote
17,410,742 people voted Leave in June 2016. This represents the largest number of votes ever received by a single option or party in a UK-wide vote. This figure - inter alia - surpasses the previous record held by the Conservative Party in the 1992 general election, where they received approximately 14 million votes
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it overtly. It’s quite a change
I just listened to a song by Joy Division called ‘Twenty Four Hours’ that is the most disturbing bit of music I’ve heard for a long time, and I liked early Nirvana!
Only listened to it because I saw a 1984interview with George Michael on a show called “Eight Days A Week” in which he said he thought the side of the album it was on was beautiful.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it quite overtly. It’s quite a change
They're now mainstream not niche. May 1st was a watershed. There's probably still a (higher) ceiling on their support but there's definitely now a new floor too
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
Pretty much perfect conditions today- breezy but not crazily so, plenty of clear skies and about a month from the solstice. And there is the gradual steady increase in areas of solar panels and numbers of wind turbines.
The next bit- which is going to be genuinely interesting to watch- is when there is enough "please, take it off us" electricity on enough days for a business ecosystem to grow around it. I suspect we're getting close, which is why domestic batteries are becoming popular, but not quite there yet.
EDF have given us, for the third Sunday in a row, free electricity from 8.00am to midnight because, wait for it, we have a smart meter. !!!!
We should all be on 30-minute tariffs and enjoying free cups of tea. Matching demand with supply isn't the full answer but a lot easier than building lots of storage.
(We're still only at 75% of our wind capacity today.)
Has a Labour leader ever been forced out of office against their will? I don't think so. They either resign after losing an election or stand down voluntarily.
George Lansbury.
One of the reasons I've never been keen on Labour is the fact they don't have a mechanism for removing a leader. Surely that should be pretty basic in any organisation? Combined with the fact that (like the Tories) they will impose a Prime minister on members of parliament. Bonkers.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it quite overtly. It’s quite a change
They're now mainstream not niche. May 1st was a watershed. There's probably still a (higher) ceiling on their support but there's definitely now a new floor too
Yes. If anything there is a NEW shame in saying you support Labour or the Tories. Because it kinda means you’re ok with Britain as it is
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it quite overtly. It’s quite a change
They're now mainstream not niche. May 1st was a watershed. There's probably still a (higher) ceiling on their support but there's definitely now a new floor too
That said, 35/36 % (as a putative ceiling) in 4.5 party politics is nearer high 40s in the 2015 to 2019 landscape or the 2020 to pre reform 2024 one
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it quite overtly. It’s quite a change
They're now mainstream not niche. May 1st was a watershed. There's probably still a (higher) ceiling on their support but there's definitely now a new floor too
Yes. If anything there is a NEW shame in saying you support Labour or the Tories. Because it kinda means you’re ok with Britain as it is
Yup. Shy tories are so back, lol! Shy tories and shy Labour
I just listened to a song by Joy Division called ‘Twenty Four Hours’ that is the most disturbing bit of music I’ve heard for a long time, and I liked early Nirvana!
Only listened to it because I saw a 1984interview with George Michael on a show called “Eight Days A Week” in which he said he thought the side of the album it was on was beautiful.
The best Joy Division songs (like that one) are suicide notes turned into exquisite chamber music
Which is indeed quite disturbing when you know what happened to Ian Curtis
There's an interesting article on tory machinations in the ST this morning.
Highlights...
Everyone knows it's all over for KB. It's just a question of exactly which electoral calamities she is going to be the human shield for ahead of the inevitable binning. The bit about KB's giddyup speech after the locals was darkly amusing.
Johnson's Tonton Macoute in the party have identified 8 seats which they think he can win in a by-election if the incumbent were to step aside.
In an amazing development, apparently, the toothy doyenne of the Management Consultancy Industrial Complex, Laura Trott is being touted as a leadership candidate.
Well, the voters might take a very different view.
I think it would be bloody funny, if Boris was parachuted in for some "safe" Tory seat, only to lose in a landslide. The Christchurch by-election, all over again.
Given a recent More in Common poll had a Boris led party not only overtaking Labour but overtaking Reform too to take the lead highly unlikely. Indeed if Boris stood in a by election in a Conservative seat he would almost certainly increase the Conservative majority
That poll was taken before the post LE poll movement and in any case if 'accurate' shows a big move to Reform since July 2024 with the Boris Boosted Tories up 1.5% from the same. So, he might, but very very risky and if he runs and loses a safer seat its all over for the Tories, they become a rump minor party
Given the Tories are 3rd or even 4th in some polls the Tories can't play safe. 16% under PR would be manageable, the Tories would still get 100 odd MPs, 16% under FPTP sees most Tory MPs lose their seats.
Of course it is not just Boris who MiC found gave the Tories a poll boost, MiC also found Sunak would get the Tories back to 24% as they got at the GE and tied with Reform and Rishi is still an MP.
Jenrick however polled 1% below Kemi, even if he won 2% from Reform he turned centrists off so doesn't look like he is the answer either, there is no point trying to out Farage Farage while he leads Reform
I never set much store by hypothetical polls.
Remember all the polls saying that many Republicans would switch from Trump if he were convicted of a felony? In the end, none of them did.
Well they were spot on in 2019 that Boris would win, spot on in 1990 Major would win etc.
Hypothetical polls beyond just named leader with add on questions may be irrelevant, though I think even those had the vast majority of Republicans sticking with Trump even if he was convicted (and of course his offence would probably have been charged as a misdemeanour anyway if it wasn't him)
Extreme power over-generation today. Exporting everything we can via interconnectors, stocking up dinorwig and still a negative price per mwh of -£4.60.
This is where we need way more batteries, and that new 30gwh pumped storage facility in Scotland will help.
Wind 16.45gw, Solar 8.70gw. An all time point record.
Pretty much perfect conditions today- breezy but not crazily so, plenty of clear skies and about a month from the solstice. And there is the gradual steady increase in areas of solar panels and numbers of wind turbines.
The next bit- which is going to be genuinely interesting to watch- is when there is enough "please, take it off us" electricity on enough days for a business ecosystem to grow around it. I suspect we're getting close, which is why domestic batteries are becoming popular, but not quite there yet.
In the US, where Trump’s war on woke renewables is causing barely a scratch in investment (and where planning permission is somewhat less of an issue) that’s exactly what’s happening. In many cases businesses are generating their own.
The most extreme example is Softbank’s plans for $500bn of investment in AI data centres (500bn, that’s like several Iraq wars worth of money), powered by 10gw of their own self-installed solar power.
10gw is more than the solar generation capacity of a mid-sized European country.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Plenty of hardline Thatcherites and hard Brexiteers I know have joined Reform, however the more moderate One Nation types are still generally in the Conservatives. Some fiscal conservatives are also wary of Farage's populist giveaways.
Personally I am now fully in favour of PR. FPTP has had its day, it worked last century when we had 2 or at most 2 and a half main parties. It doesn't work now when we have 5 main UK wide parties and more including the nationalist parties in Scotland, Wales and NI and Unionists in the latter.
Most European nations, New Zealand, Israel, Brazil, South Africa already have it and it would properly ensure full representation of all views in parliament, with the Greens, Labour, LDs, Tories and Reform all getting numbers of MPs that fairly represented their voteshare.
Otherwise we just end up with tactical votes for the least worst option whether to keep out Farage or Starmer without any real enthusiasm by many voters for the choice they have to make.
Have the Fukkers peaked too early? Four years is a long time and they won't be able to campaign on insurgency because they may have some record as incumbents which will have to be defended by then.
There's an interesting article on tory machinations in the ST this morning.
Highlights...
Everyone knows it's all over for KB. It's just a question of exactly which electoral calamities she is going to be the human shield for ahead of the inevitable binning. The bit about KB's giddyup speech after the locals was darkly amusing.
Johnson's Tonton Macoute in the party have identified 8 seats which they think he can win in a by-election if the incumbent were to step aside.
In an amazing development, apparently, the toothy doyenne of the Management Consultancy Industrial Complex, Laura Trott is being touted as a leadership candidate.
Well, the voters might take a very different view.
I think it would be bloody funny, if Boris was parachuted in for some "safe" Tory seat, only to lose in a landslide. The Christchurch by-election, all over again.
Given a recent More in Common poll had a Boris led party not only overtaking Labour but overtaking Reform too to take the lead highly unlikely. Indeed if Boris stood in a by election in a Conservative seat he would almost certainly increase the Conservative majority
That poll was taken before the post LE poll movement and in any case if 'accurate' shows a big move to Reform since July 2024 with the Boris Boosted Tories up 1.5% from the same. So, he might, but very very risky and if he runs and loses a safer seat its all over for the Tories, they become a rump minor party
Given the Tories are 3rd or even 4th in some polls the Tories can't play safe. 16% under PR would be manageable, the Tories would still get 100 odd MPs, 16% under FPTP sees most Tory MPs lose their seats.
Of course it is not just Boris who MiC found gave the Tories a poll boost, MiC also found Sunak would get the Tories back to 24% as they got at the GE and tied with Reform and Rishi is still an MP.
Jenrick however polled 1% below Kemi, even if he won 2% from Reform he turned centrists off so doesn't look like he is the answer either, there is no point trying to out Farage Farage while he leads Reform
I never set much store by hypothetical polls.
Remember all the polls saying that many Republicans would switch from Trump if he were convicted of a felony? In the end, none of them did.
Well they were spot on in 2019 that Boris would win, spot on in 1990 Major would win etc.
Hypothetical polls beyond just named leader with add on questions may be irrelevant, though I think even those had the vast majority of Republicans sticking with Trump even if he was convicted (and of course his offence would probably have been charged as a misdemeanour anyway if it wasn't him)
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it quite overtly. It’s quite a change
They're now mainstream not niche. May 1st was a watershed. There's probably still a (higher) ceiling on their support but there's definitely now a new floor too
But what's causing it? It can't be their policies (they don't have any) and it can't be Nigel (he's been around for decades and is no less irritating now than before). It has to be that some sort of weird controversialism has seized part of the public.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
That wasn't the EU, it was the EEC which was specifically marketed in the UK as not a political union by political parties at the time.
My point is that referenda don't last forever. The context changes. Voters die and others take their place. In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda. And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
Yes but no one suggested simply ignoring the 1975 vote or “revoking” it, did they? We honoured the vote
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
What Cameron didn't tell us was that he didn't plan to stay on to implement the choice. That was the great betrayal.
And on your point, though I think it was right to leave following the referendum (we should have joined EFTA/EEA/Norway, and that is still true) no politician however high flown their rhetoric can bind a future parliament.
Well yes. Of course
Indeed I believe the Lib Dems should put Rejoin in their next manifesto (after a referendum). A large chunk of Britons want this and they should be represented in parliament. And if the Lib Dems win power and win the referendum and we Rejoin - fair enough. That’s democracy
I’m not going to bang on about this any more because there is no debate to be had. I am inarguably correct. You can’t call a vote, solemnly vow to uphold the result - then ignore the vote. The biggest vote in British political history
It’s bleedin’ obvious and not worth disputing
"The biggest vote in British political history"
That's not so. But if you think that is a killer point we should still be under John Major's government of 1992 which actually was the biggest vote in British political history.
33,551,983 people cast a vote in the 2016 referendum—which was 72% of all people registered to vote.
Slightly more votes—33,614,074—were cast in the 1992 general election, which was won by John Major’s Conservative Party.
78% of people registered to vote in 1992 did so, which is a higher turnout than in the 2016 referendum.
Admit it. You're struggling.
Arguing Lib Dem Brexit policy with a Faragiste is like arguing transubstantiation with a Catholic (or trans-anything with anyone these days). Not going to sway ingrained beliefs.
I prefer, when I can be arsed, to try to correct lazy stereotypes about “Lib Dems try to be all things to all people” (er, Reform anyone?) and “Lib Dems are all NIMBYs” or “as soon as they get a sniff of power they’ll be jumping into bed with the Tories again”, because they are somewhat more factual points that can be sensibly debated with a dose of nuance.
Given that Tice has admitted that Reform's tax cut promises are bollox why should anyone believe Farage's welfarist promises ?
I don't find that a fair characterisation. Times change, and the fiscal and economical situation has worsened.
I was re-reading Suella Braverman's piece on ending the 2 child cap, written back in 2023, and the cost is calculated at 2.4bn in 2024/25. But isn't it now 5bn in 2025/26? Crazy difference.
Reform's tax cut promises were always bollox.
Their welfarist promises are now bollox.
If they want to 'reform' something then how about some suggestions as to how to deal with generational inequality and the pandering to pensioners.
Yes they are, but they will make Labour even more jittery.
Problem is the backbench MPs, especially in the new intake, seem to be useless morons who just want to please people and not make difficult decisions.
Have the Fukkers peaked too early? Four years is a long time and they won't be able to campaign on insurgency because they may have some record as incumbents which will have to be defended by then.
Just noticed the word incumbents has “cum” in it. Hadn’t spotted that before. Surprised it’s not been used in discourse.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
This is not the only set of fiscal rules the markets will accept! If she goes Truss like she will get a Truss like response. If she makes a proper case for investment, the markets will be fine.
We simply cannot afford to keep borrowing £12bn a month whatever framework we operate. And assuming that the market is going to be relaxed about that increasing by some slightly more lax rules to give our politicians "headroom" is far more dangerous than we are willing to admit. We are teetering on the brink of a genuine crisis here and none of our political class are willing to admit it because they are all culpable.
The markets would be far happier if they raise taxes, I think
The scale of the problem is so massive we clearly need to do both. Substantial cuts in public spending AND significant increases in taxes. But I agree that the emphasis should be on the tax and that the markets would prefer that to promises of cuts that never actually materialise or end up costing more than they save.
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
Personally I think Labour have given up the next election, and their main aim now is to stay the second largest party. After the flirtation with Faragism, policy initiatives now look aimed at shoring up the left, not taking back the centre. The 'debate with Farage', which actually makes him more likely to win (but has the positive side effect of making those who dislike him more likely to vote tactically to keep him out) is another sign of this to me.
I tend to agree. They already believe, doomily, they’re a one term government, unless things drastically change; hence the maneuvers by Rayner
Rayner as leader probably can’t alter Labour’s fate. But she has got the charisma Starmer entirely lacks and she could save them from oblivion
The other thing about Rayner is, for areas like mine in the Red Wall vulnerable to Reform, she appeals to working class people and communities because she’s one of us. This must be true as we keep being to this by Home Counties, middle class, centrists.
There's an interesting article on tory machinations in the ST this morning.
Highlights...
Everyone knows it's all over for KB. It's just a question of exactly which electoral calamities she is going to be the human shield for ahead of the inevitable binning. The bit about KB's giddyup speech after the locals was darkly amusing.
Johnson's Tonton Macoute in the party have identified 8 seats which they think he can win in a by-election if the incumbent were to step aside.
In an amazing development, apparently, the toothy doyenne of the Management Consultancy Industrial Complex, Laura Trott is being touted as a leadership candidate.
Well, the voters might take a very different view.
I think it would be bloody funny, if Boris was parachuted in for some "safe" Tory seat, only to lose in a landslide. The Christchurch by-election, all over again.
Given a recent More in Common poll had a Boris led party not only overtaking Labour but overtaking Reform too to take the lead highly unlikely. Indeed if Boris stood in a by election in a Conservative seat he would almost certainly increase the Conservative majority
That poll was taken before the post LE poll movement and in any case if 'accurate' shows a big move to Reform since July 2024 with the Boris Boosted Tories up 1.5% from the same. So, he might, but very very risky and if he runs and loses a safer seat its all over for the Tories, they become a rump minor party
Given the Tories are 3rd or even 4th in some polls the Tories can't play safe. 16% under PR would be manageable, the Tories would still get 100 odd MPs, 16% under FPTP sees most Tory MPs lose their seats.
Of course it is not just Boris who MiC found gave the Tories a poll boost, MiC also found Sunak would get the Tories back to 24% as they got at the GE and tied with Reform and Rishi is still an MP.
Jenrick however polled 1% below Kemi, even if he won 2% from Reform he turned centrists off so doesn't look like he is the answer either, there is no point trying to out Farage Farage while he leads Reform
I never set much store by hypothetical polls.
Remember all the polls saying that many Republicans would switch from Trump if he were convicted of a felony? In the end, none of them did.
Well they were spot on in 2019 that Boris would win, spot on in 1990 Major would win etc.
Hypothetical polls beyond just named leader with add on questions may be irrelevant, though I think even those had the vast majority of Republicans sticking with Trump even if he was convicted (and of course his offence would probably have been charged as a misdemeanour anyway if it wasn't him)
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it overtly. It’s quite a change
I'd assumed at least in London it was still at the sex party level of respectability. I'm guessing these are somewhat older voters? Whilst some young people are confidently Reform I suspect quite a few are nervous about stating their support.
The thing is that Farage has got them where they are. No doubt about that. Could he now be their biggest weakness though?
Have the Fukkers peaked too early? Four years is a long time and they won't be able to campaign on insurgency because they may have some record as incumbents which will have to be defended by then.
Liz Truss was elected with a hefty 57% of the vote but only lasted 49 days in office. Maybe Labour's 170 seat majority doesn't necessarily mean they stay in office for the full 5 years.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
It's not the fiscal rules that need to go, it is the election promises. The comfortably-off need to more heavily taxed.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it quite overtly. It’s quite a change
They're now mainstream not niche. May 1st was a watershed. There's probably still a (higher) ceiling on their support but there's definitely now a new floor too
But what's causing it? It can't be their policies (they don't have any) and it can't be Nigel (he's been around for decades and is no less irritating now than before). It has to be that some sort of weird controversialism has seized part of the public.
In my opinion.... Two party orthodoxy has run its course and failed People are generally just utterly exhausted by failure and decline (that can't be nailed down, and sense thereof) 'Its new/different and therefore it is better' And the West is reliving the Last Days Of Rome and this is the rage against the dying of the light
“Last week Mauritius signed a partnership with Russia covering fisheries and marine research.
They pledged to “deepen collaboration” and “reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation in agriculture, research, irrigation, and fisheries, and building on a longstanding partnership.””
Gee, look at that timing. Those pristine waters will now be plundered by Russian and Chinese ships
I struggle to find a word for this deal that doesn’t involve the concept of “treason”
“Opinion polls don’t always provide a precise picture of voters’ mood – and the next general election is still four years away. But Labour strategists will doubtless be poring over the data, and it’s not pretty.
Analysis by the Guardian found Labour’s drop in the opinion polls in its first 10 months of power is the largest of any newly elected UK government in 40 years.”
I think of the 2026 and 2025 locals had been reversed Labour would have had that fourth behind the LDs with YouGov - next year will be apocalyptic for them. It's not impossible they go fourth in Scotland and, at best, they will be Plaids little helpers in Wales and they will likely lose well over 1000 councillors, possibly 1500-2000
Yes, when you drill into the polling the situation for Labour is actually worse than it looks. eg
“Labour is not winning the blame game on the economy – something that it put a lot of emphasis on in its early days of power with the chancellor Rachel Reeves’ claims of a “£22bn hole” of unfunded commitments for 2024.
Among those who view the economy negatively, Ipsos polling shows that the decisions of Starmer and Reeves are seen as the biggest contributing factor (56%) – more significant than the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
So the whole “blame the Tories, look at the black hole” shtick has already failed, and will, of course, never succeed now. No one is going to think “no, wait, I was wrong - it WAS the Tories”
Given that Labour have no clue what to do on the economy other than sad woke tinkering, this seems terminal. They need a Falklands War AND they need Farage to go away, and even that might not be enough
The Scooby Gang will be peeling off Reeves mask to reveal it was Reeves all along. They are cooked. Actually the establishment is cooked. Where we probably differ is that I'm 100% convinced Farage breaking everyones hearts and hopes will be just as rapid
I’m not sure we differ THAT much. I’m not convinced Farage is the solution either - I AM convinced we’ve tried everything else, so his road is the only option left
I am also convinced that mass immigration and the increasingly desperate attempts by the Establishment to pretend that it is “working” and that “diversity is our strength” is at the root of many of our problems. From low productivity to housing to “two tier justice” to our fraying national identity - the continued importation of millions of people entirely foreign to the UK is making everything worse, fast
This is not the fault of the migrants, who merely and naturally want a better life. It’s the fault of the politicians who have so casually opened our borders
It’s an experiment that has failed, disastrously. It must be ended and remedied. The Danish social democrats have shown you can do this without tearing society apart. A sensible Labour government would copy them. We don’t have a sensible government
So Farage it is
And then what ?
A failed Farage government, aside from all the socioeconomic damage it may cause, could be replaced by a hard left government.
So be it. You Tories had your chance. We gave you 14 fucking years and you rewarded our votes with gross incompetence, venal greed, oafish arrogance and terminal stupidity. Your party must die. Good riddance and bye bye
I'm not a Tory and I had plenty of criticisms over those 14 years.
If Farage was offering competent, patriotic Reform I could happily vote for it.
Instead he's promising magic money tree fantasies, heavily tinged with Trumpist and Putinist sympathies.
Farage may be that or he may not. We’ve never seen him in government so who knows
The fact is the Tories catastrophically failed in their 14 years and now Labour have catastrophically failed in just 10 months
Why should any British voter give them ANOTHER chance? There is no reason for this, it is Einstein’s definition of madness. Given that the Libs are just more-of-the-same that leaves us with Farage
There's a very good reason and that's things are pretty good for many millions of people and a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government, could easily destroy all that.
The country needs reform and repair.
But, as in a house which needs repair, that requires the competent not cowboys to do the work.
And nothing about Farage's past or promises suggest he could lead a country competently.
If this was remotely true Labour would not be polling 22% (and falling) and the Tories 16% (and falling)
Meanwhile Reform are on 30% (and rising)
There's plenty of disgruntlement with the establishment parties, rightly so in many cases.
That doesn't mean that the non-establishment parties might not do even worse in government.
Nor does it mean that there aren't many millions of people who should be grateful for what they have but are still endlessly whining that they deserve more.
This is far beyond “disgruntlement”. Read the room
Or look across the west. Britain is not alone. The populist/nationalist right is surging everywhere because an entire ideology - mass immigration plus multiculturalism - has failed
You're still babbling about causes without any thought about consequences.
You view a Farage government, and doubtless Le Pen and AfD governments, as the end result, end of the story and happily ever after.
Its not, it would be the beginning. That is when the hard work would start and the difficult decisions have to be taken.
And I don't see any evidence that Farage's rabble of malcontents have the ideas, honesty or competence to reform anything.
I am also aware that I have much to lose from a failed Farage government, especially if followed by a hard left government.
So do many millions of others, even if they're not aware of it now they would soon be with an actual Farage government.
Indeed. There were reasons for thinking that voting Labour in 2024 would deliver a decent degree of competence, leadership and long term planning with excellent communication as to the way this would be progressed, and an acceptable degree of honesty and transparency. I don't think so far this has occurred, and polls suggest something similar.
There is, SFAICS, zero prospect of Reform being either honest ot competent. Their most recent set of policies is sheer fantasy, and there is no prospect of their high command having a secret store of real sane policies they are keeping under wraps. At this stage they are simply engaging in supporting anything and everything to get disgruntled voters' support.
Which altogether is why, I think, the LDs are quietly doing well in the polls. Fairly untainted, not given to total fantasy. No other party can now claim that garland.
That’s the Lib Dems that literally wanted to Revoke the Brexit vote? They didn’t even want a 2nd vote - they just wanted to simply cancel the biggest vote in British history and tell 17 million people “you’re too stupid to vote, so from now on we’re just going to ignore you whenever we like. Vote for us!”
If anything is fantasy politics it is that. It was a fantastically stupid idea which would have destroyed British democracy overnight and probably caused civil disorder
Fuck the Lib Dems. They are the most ridiculous of ALL the parties
Rejoining without a referendum was in the LibDem manifesto. Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
No. It’s not. In Britain if we have a massive referendum and the government explicitly says “we will honour your vote. This is your choice” then we honour the vote. That’s democracy
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
In 1975, in a massive referendum, 67% voted to stay in the EU. Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016? Referenda results don't last forever. We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government. These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
Your analogy is flawed.
In May 1979, the Conservatives won the General Election. However, the Queen overrides this, and states that Jim Callaghan will stay in power with the Labour party, whilst things are 'worked through'.
In 1982, Labour propose to rerun the 1979 GE (with a different electorate) and if the Conservatives don't win this, they'll stay in power, otherwise they'll hand over the reigns.
That's your analogy. The Lib Dems wanted to 'have another vote' to make sure we really meant it, and worse, the requirement for this was a GE via a normal FPTP system. It might well have been that had the LD managed 35% of the vote, they win and cancel something that was never implemented.
reports today from within Labour that the 'fiscal rules' are going in the budget in the Autumn. I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
It's not the fiscal rules that need to go, it is the election promises. The comfortably-off need to more heavily taxed.
Indeed they do. Soak the lot of them before you come after me.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
I have voted for 'Farage' before. Back in 2015, UKIP. In Bootle. So Nuttall got 2 votes. I wouldn't now. No matter what.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it overtly. It’s quite a change
I'd assumed at least in London it was still at the sex party level of respectability. I'm guessing these are somewhat older voters? Whilst some young people are confidently Reform I suspect quite a few are nervous about stating their support.
The thing is that Farage has got them where they are. No doubt about that. Could he now be their biggest weakness though?
We now have two sizeable demographic blocs who are content to roll the dice for a bit of year-zero upheaval. The financially comfortable, mortgage-free elderly who will happily do it for the lols and nostalgia, and the very young who are finding the world of work frustrating and home ownership a distant dream.
The middle of the sandwich - those who are in the process of building a family, household, career and would quite like some stability in which to do it - are a shrinking cohort.
If Farage is the answer, then I think we're asking the wrong questions.
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Farage’s attitude towards Putin is what deters me from supporting Reform. Pretty well everyone I befriended through the Conservatives has now joined Reform.
Wow.
You’re surprised? I’m not
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it overtly. It’s quite a change
I'd assumed at least in London it was still at the sex party level of respectability. I'm guessing these are somewhat older voters? Whilst some young people are confidently Reform I suspect quite a few are nervous about stating their support.
The thing is that Farage has got them where they are. No doubt about that. Could he now be their biggest weakness though?
“Last week Mauritius signed a partnership with Russia covering fisheries and marine research.
They pledged to “deepen collaboration” and “reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation in agriculture, research, irrigation, and fisheries, and building on a longstanding partnership.””
Gee, look at that timing. Those pristine waters will now be plundered by Russian and Chinese ships
I struggle to find a word for this deal that doesn’t involve the concept of “treason”
“Last week Mauritius signed a partnership with Russia covering fisheries and marine research.
They pledged to “deepen collaboration” and “reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation in agriculture, research, irrigation, and fisheries, and building on a longstanding partnership.””
Gee, look at that timing. Those pristine waters will now be plundered by Russian and Chinese ships
I struggle to find a word for this deal that doesn’t involve the concept of “treason”
But surely Trump wouldn't be happy with something that was to the benefit of Russia?
The problem is that whilst the whole thing looks incompetent it isn't really registering with the international commentariat. I've been following quite a few securocrats since 2022 and they've had nothing to say on it.
Comments
They are not for my tastes.
"So often in investigations there are overlooked clues."
Sometimes, a disease such as this is undetectable until it is detected.
An audit to check if there were missed signs is worthwhile, if only to reassure you that nothing was missed (if true). I speak from personal experience with my wife.
"The other similarity is learning how to deliver difficult messages. I admire the doctors and nurses who have spoken to me with great care and consideration."
This is so true. I don't know how doctors cope with empathy at the same time as maintaining emotional boundaries to protect themselves. It's remarkable.
In the meantime, carpe diem. And you have a book to write.
Bad news, sorry to hear it. If I’m up your way I’ll call in. I could talk you through chemo and its corollaries, it was a big part of my life a decade ago, but really I would want to talk about demands and rights.
I’m always on your side in the trans debate as a second or third wave feminist, I guess. But I’m not comfortable with sidelining the vulnerable and going by suicide rates, the trans community could do with a lot more joy.
There’s a tension there that will need to be accommodated eventually. The conversation is ongoing, individual demands, community expectations, all very interesting. I expect it will eventually settle.
Anyway, take it steady, enjoy the gulls, the view, and give yourself every kindness.
Best
Does it ?
Not in my experience.
Had the LibDems got a majority (unlikely I know) that would have given them the mandate. That's how the UK political system works.
As a fairly healthy couple in our 70s, we also have the challenge of helping to judge when the balance shifts between supporting the next generations and letting them support us. The answer is clearly very individual and right now I think Cyclefree should accept support and caring from her family, as the balance of need has clearly shifted for the moment. But it's always easy to advise others, harder to do it...
Except that it's often being proposed by the same fools who think we should get rid of the sorts of programmes that would reduce the need for people to migrate in the first place. Which are not only cheaper but achieve the same thing as remigration without the human cost of migration in the first place.
That's just on a skim read - I shall do you the credit of actually reading Carswell's plan properly and come back to you.
The Lib Dem position - cancel votes we don’t like - was simultaneously disgusting and very dangerous
I'm no fan of them but Reeves surely realises the fig leaf of following them religiously is the only thing stopping the markets going Truss on her?
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
At best its her admitting she hasn't got a clue what she's doing.which they won't be excited by
The markets would be pretty ok if the government said we are putting up every tax to fund the NHS. Yes, you take a political hit - but nothing is free.
Was it disgusting an dangerous to overturn it in 2016?
Referenda results don't last forever.
We have a vote every four or five years to choose our government.
These votes don't last forever. That wouldn't be democracy.
Astonishing.
Madness. Utter madness. And profoundly evil
Deep down you know this but you can’t cope with the cognitive dissonance of knowing you supported this insanity so you lurch into denial
The next bit- which is going to be genuinely interesting to watch- is when there is enough "please, take it off us" electricity on enough days for a business ecosystem to grow around it. I suspect we're getting close, which is why domestic batteries are becoming popular, but not quite there yet.
The context changes.
Voters die and others take their place.
In our system, parliament is supreme, not referenda.
And a parliament can't mandate future parliaments.
'Change' to the fiscal rules in ordinary English = borrowing a great deal more than we already have borrowed in order to spend money we don't have which we magically think our grandchildren will be able to pay back even though we can't even think about paying back any of the trillions we have already borrowed, because we are borrowing more money to pay the interest on the previous borrowings.
Indeed of course it was not even the 2016 Leave vote which actually delivered Brexit anyway but the Conservative majority of 2019 with a manifesto commitment for it.
As we are a parliamentary representative democracy not a direct democracy personally I would never hold another referendum again
Honouring the vote - which the UK government explicitly promised to do - is what you do. In a democracy. Once that is done then of course a new government can call a new referendum and reverse the vote. Or mandate compulsory sombreros on Sundays. That too is democracy
What you can’t do is call the biggest vote in British history and then ignore the result because “posh clever people like me don’t like it”
There is no argument to be had here. This is what David Cameron said to the British people in 2015
‘Ultimately it will be the judgment of the British people in the referendum… You will have to judge what is best for you and your family, for your children and grandchildren, for our country, for our future. It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave. Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’. Not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide. At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.‘
He went on:
‘So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation, and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say: think again. The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.’
QED. The debate is done. The Lib Dems and the 2nd voters are repulsive and dangerous liars
Of course it is not just Boris who MiC found gave the Tories a poll boost, MiC also found Sunak would get the Tories back to 24% as they got at the GE and tied with Reform and Rishi is still an MP.
Jenrick however polled 1% below Kemi, even if he won 2% from Reform he turned centrists off so doesn't look like he is the answer either, there is no point trying to out Farage Farage while he leads Reform
The reason? It is in their common short term interest not to draw attention to it, so the can is kicked down the road.
Hence the hyperbole. "Profoundly evil"!
I'd quietly change the subject if I were you.
Two things follow from that, I reckon.
One is that Rishi'n'Jez really blotted their copybook at the end of their time in office. The final fantasy budgets made the problem worse in a failed attempt to stave off electoral disaster. The brave and correct thing to do would have been to fix some of the fiscal damage, on the 'Mr Zellaby in the Midwich Cuckoos' principle.
The other is that Farage (big tax cuts plus goodies) is exerting a power that makes the problem harder to fix. Because he can deny arithmetic, everyone else has to.
I suspect any decision to reverse the decision will be equally long. The EU does not look as attractive as it did when we left economically or in terms of democracy. I very much doubt that they would want us back in any event. They must have wearied of British angst on the subject. We really don't have a spare £40bn a year to chip into the pot. Closer cooperation, particularly on defence and trade will hopefully be the way forward to our mutual benefit.
Remember all the polls saying that many Republicans would switch from Trump if he were convicted of a felony? In the end, none of them did.
And on your point, though I think it was right to leave following the referendum (we should have joined EFTA/EEA/Norway, and that is still true) no politician however high flown their rhetoric can bind a future parliament.
Hypothetical polls beyond just named leader with add on questions may be irrelevant, though I think even those had the vast majority of Republicans sticking with Trump even if he was convicted (and of course his offence would probably have been charged as a misdemeanour anyway if it wasn't him)
You're stuck with wrong idea in your brain about referenda.
Move on.
Indeed I believe the Lib Dems should put Rejoin in their next manifesto (after a referendum). A large chunk of Britons want this and they should be represented in parliament. And if the Lib Dems win power and win the referendum and we Rejoin - fair enough. That’s democracy
I’m not going to bang on about this any more because there is no debate to be had. I am inarguably correct. You can’t call a vote, solemnly vow to uphold the result - then ignore the vote. The biggest vote in British political history
It’s bleedin’ obvious and not worth disputing
My problem with Farage is his unwillingness to criticise Trump in any way, and his half hearted mealy-mouthed criticisms of Russia and Putin.
I don't want a country run by someone like that.
I hope that something will turn up, because I really don't think we want to find out the answer to what a Farage premiership would look like.
Fairly serious question: Does Reform UK's War on Woke include electrical vehicles charging points?
For example, is there going to be a sudden fight against any more Tesla Superchargers being built in Lincs, Notts, Derbys, Staffs?
Labour in Wales GE 29 will do as badly as Jim Murphy's SLab in GE 2015
That's not so. But if you think that is a killer point we should still be under John Major's government of 1992 which actually was the biggest vote in British political history.
33,551,983 people cast a vote in the 2016 referendum—which was 72% of all people registered to vote.
Slightly more votes—33,614,074—were cast in the 1992 general election, which was won by John Major’s Conservative Party.
78% of people registered to vote in 1992 did so, which is a higher turnout than in the 2016 referendum.
Admit it. You're struggling.
And Ramsay Mac too
17,410,742 people voted Leave in June 2016. This represents the largest number of votes ever received by a single option or party in a UK-wide vote. This figure - inter alia - surpasses the previous record held by the Conservative Party in the 1992 general election, where they received approximately 14 million votes
I find Reform voters everywhere. It’s not just my posh Notting Hill friends, it’s all sorts
Overnight supporting Reform seems to have become respectable and there is no more shame in admitting it. Indeed people say it overtly. It’s quite a change
Only listened to it because I saw a 1984interview with George Michael on a show called “Eight Days A Week” in which he said he thought the side of the album it was on was beautiful.
Best wishes.
(We're still only at 75% of our wind capacity today.)
Which is indeed quite disturbing when you know what happened to Ian Curtis
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Boris. Allowed net immigration of 906k in year to Jun 2023. Big on net zero. Not happening
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1926589062544028081
The most extreme example is Softbank’s plans for $500bn of investment in AI data centres (500bn, that’s like several Iraq wars worth of money), powered by 10gw of their own self-installed solar power.
10gw is more than the solar generation capacity of a mid-sized European country.
Warmest and very best wishes to Cyclefree.
Personally I am now fully in favour of PR. FPTP has had its day, it worked last century when we had 2 or at most 2 and a half main parties. It doesn't work now when we have 5 main UK wide parties and more including the nationalist parties in Scotland, Wales and NI and Unionists in the latter.
Most European nations, New Zealand, Israel, Brazil, South Africa already have it and it would properly ensure full representation of all views in parliament, with the Greens, Labour, LDs, Tories and Reform all getting numbers of MPs that fairly represented their voteshare.
Otherwise we just end up with tactical votes for the least worst option whether to keep out Farage or Starmer without any real enthusiasm by many voters for the choice they have to make.
I prefer, when I can be arsed, to try to correct lazy stereotypes about “Lib Dems try to be all things to all people” (er, Reform anyone?) and “Lib Dems are all NIMBYs” or “as soon as they get a sniff of power they’ll be jumping into bed with the Tories again”, because they are somewhat more factual points that can be sensibly debated with a dose of nuance.
Problem is the backbench MPs, especially in the new intake, seem to be useless morons who just want to please people and not make difficult decisions.
Reeves under pressure.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c991mg1gjx9o
In any case it isn't the Reform core vote that Boris will win back but centrist swing voters, hence he took the Conservatives to 26% with MoreinCommon even with Reform still on 23%, with Labour down to 22%
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/j5jhk22f/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
The thing is that Farage has got them where they are. No doubt about that. Could he now be their biggest weakness though?
The comfortably-off need to more heavily taxed.
Two party orthodoxy has run its course and failed
People are generally just utterly exhausted by failure and decline (that can't be nailed down, and sense thereof)
'Its new/different and therefore it is better'
And the West is reliving the Last Days Of Rome and this is the rage against the dying of the light
“Last week Mauritius signed a partnership with Russia covering fisheries and marine research.
They pledged to “deepen collaboration” and “reaffirmed their commitment to advancing cooperation in agriculture, research, irrigation, and fisheries, and building on a longstanding partnership.””
Gee, look at that timing. Those pristine waters will now be plundered by Russian and Chinese ships
I struggle to find a word for this deal that doesn’t involve the concept of “treason”
https://x.com/pritipatel/status/1925787301143019942?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
In May 1979, the Conservatives won the General Election. However, the Queen overrides this, and states that Jim Callaghan will stay in power with the Labour party, whilst things are 'worked through'.
In 1982, Labour propose to rerun the 1979 GE (with a different electorate) and if the Conservatives don't win this, they'll stay in power, otherwise they'll hand over the reigns.
That's your analogy. The Lib Dems wanted to 'have another vote' to make sure we really meant it, and worse, the requirement for this was a GE via a normal FPTP system. It might well have been that had the LD managed 35% of the vote, they win and cancel something that was never implemented.
I wouldn't now. No matter what.
The middle of the sandwich - those who are in the process of building a family, household, career and would quite like some stability in which to do it - are a shrinking cohort.
The problem is that whilst the whole thing looks incompetent it isn't really registering with the international commentariat. I've been following quite a few securocrats since 2022 and they've had nothing to say on it.