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More people think Starmer’s deal is a good deal than a bad deal – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,612
edited June 1 in General
More people think Starmer’s deal is a good deal than a bad deal – politicalbetting.com

Britons are split on whether the Brexit reset deal with the EU is a good or bad dealGood deal: 29%Neither good nor bad: 16%Bad deal: 26%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…

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Comments

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,719
    edited May 21
    Large don't know figure - watch that get whittled down and moved to the bad deal column by the relentless activity of the Press and Farage.

    That's the main reason British politics is how it is. Farage and like-minded souls in the media are the only people willing and able to make an argument repeatedly and change people's minds. Everyone else in politics seems to have forgotten that you need to win the argument.

    Edit: And first apparently.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,353
    I'd be interested in a breakdown based on 2016 vote, for those who were eligible.
    I'm interested in the % who now deny they voted for it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,417
    Pulpstar said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Hey, @Leon, seen this.

    Nonce from Pakistan wins right to stay in UK he faces ‘fatwa’ if deported.

    😳🙄

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14734579/Pakistani-paedophile-teenage-girl-UK-fatwa.html

    Another million votes for Reform

    Don't the powers-that-be realise what they are doing? These idiot lawyers? These wanker judges?

    Maybe they do, and they simply do not care
    So we send the nasty whatsit back to face certain death? However nasty he is, however vile his crime?
    He isn't facing "certain death".
    "Your sentence has been commuted from certain death to probable death!"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,249
    The counterfactual is not agreeing anything at all. It's hard to argue whatever comes out of these negotiations will make things worse.

    It will take at least the rest of this government to negotiate everything though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323
    edited May 21
    The median voter is indifferent on Starmer's deal, saying it is neither good nor bad, so we will wait and see whether the EU reset gives his government and the economy a boost.

    Of course on Brexit the political divide remains clear, 79% of Labour and 74% of LD voters want to rejoin the EU, 81% of Reform and 64% of Conservative voters don't. 71% of Labour and 79% of LD voters also want to rejoin the Single Market, compared to 37% of Conservative and just 22% of Reform voters who wish to rejoin the EEA.

    Conservative voters most common position is to keep the relationship with the EU as is, which 48% back and 28% oppose.

    Reform voters want to go even further, with 42% wanting to loosen the UK relationship with the EU even further, 27% opposed
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_Brexit_250519.pdf
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,871
    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    edited May 21
    FF43 said:

    The counterfactual is not agreeing anything at all. It's hard to argue whatever comes out of these negotiations will make things worse.

    It will take at least the rest of this government to negotiate everything though.

    The commitment made yesterday to annual negotiations offers up the probability of slow progress towards an overall closer relationship and better arrangements.

    Essentially we’re in the same structural position as Switzerland - as more enlightened commentators always said we would be - and now have to put in a lot of hard yards to inch our way towards the same level of benefit.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,455
    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,436
    HYUFD said:

    The median voter is indifferent on Starmer's deal, saying it is neither good nor bad, so we will wait and see whether the EU reset gives his government and the economy a boost.

    Of course on Brexit the political divide remains clear, 79% of Labour and 74% of LD voters want to rejoin the EU, 81% of Reform and 64% of Conservative voters don't. 71% of Labour and 79% of LD voters also want to rejoin the Single Market, compared to 37% of Conservative and just 22% of Reform voters who wish to rejoin the EEA.

    Conservative voters most common position is to keep the relationship with the EU as is, which 48% back and 28% oppose.

    Reform voters want to go even further, with 42% wanting to loosen the UK relationship with the EU even further, 27% opposed
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_Brexit_250519.pdf

    Back in the day, of course, it was the Conservatives who were the backbone of the campaigns a) to join and b) to vote Yes in the 1975 referendum.

    IIRC the Daily Mail even said that 'They had never wavered in their support for Britain being part of Europe!'

    How times have changed!
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,568
    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    edited May 21
    Hello all, thought I'd drop by for a visit and let you know I'm still extant! Interesting times we live in with Starmer going down like a cup of cold sick everywhere and Kemi failing to capitalise whilst reform run riot. I've been doing a bit of number crunching on prospects in Norfolk for the next election and elsewhere where the Tories or Labour will best hold off the turquoise tide- might stay for a few days and post in some of it but I'm expecting Norfolk to be generally turquoise at the moment (including Norwich North and potentially South if Lewis goes rogue and defects or is removed or if Labour go sub 20 nationally) - Tories might hang on in Broadland and could retake South Norfolk but could equally easily lose both. I'm expecting the lowest ever Labour opinion poll rating over the summer (18 currently) and Tories could go sub Truss's 14 in a poll or two.
    Some of the seat calculations on models are a bit overdone imo, I'm expecting (to take in the previous threads premise for a sec) LD tactical unwind and a bit of 're efficiency' in the Tory vote and a bit of de efficiency in Labour (as tactical voting goes against them), although they are heading for a 24 style Tory vote collapse anyway.
    Hope you're all well anyway. Glorious George is having fun trolling Starmer today. Plus ca change
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    FF43 said:

    The counterfactual is not agreeing anything at all. It's hard to argue whatever comes out of these negotiations will make things worse.

    It will take at least the rest of this government to negotiate everything though.

    We don't tend to use the word because they're not very good at it, but this is a government obsessed with spin.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,761
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    I disagree. The responses are more positive than the overall public approval ratings of Starmer and the Labour government. That suggests they are on average happier with the deal than their overall perception of the party.

    Responses to policies are always conditioned by political preferences, so given that backdrop it’s a decent showing. Not a game changer, but decent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,871
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Balls.
    You’re just a Farage foot soldier peddling propaganda.

    The reality is that it’s just not a big deal.
    We can make it a very bad deal in the eyes of the British voter, if we all pull together, and that's what counts

    We need to get Nigel into Number 10, we can surely all agree on that? This will really help
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Balls.
    You’re just a Farage foot soldier peddling propaganda.
    I doubt he has any particular political convictions.

    But probably playing the troll here until everything does a very good impression of revolving around him and his utterances makes him feel good for some reason.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Half an hour at Passport control and not seeing cheaper groceries (in fact with inflation the opposite) and the numbers will collapse.
    If he's guffing off about 'excitement' over e gates you know it's garbage 🗑
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,224
    Sir Keir will be fairly content with these numbers. Those who have a negative opinion of his deal can be reasonably written off as the irreconcilables. By comparison didn't Dave's Deal get around a 70% negative response?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,731
    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    The median voter is indifferent on Starmer's deal, saying it is neither good nor bad, so we will wait and see whether the EU reset gives his government and the economy a boost.

    Of course on Brexit the political divide remains clear, 79% of Labour and 74% of LD voters want to rejoin the EU, 81% of Reform and 64% of Conservative voters don't. 71% of Labour and 79% of LD voters also want to rejoin the Single Market, compared to 37% of Conservative and just 22% of Reform voters who wish to rejoin the EEA.

    Conservative voters most common position is to keep the relationship with the EU as is, which 48% back and 28% oppose.

    Reform voters want to go even further, with 42% wanting to loosen the UK relationship with the EU even further, 27% opposed
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_Brexit_250519.pdf

    Back in the day, of course, it was the Conservatives who were the backbone of the campaigns a) to join and b) to vote Yes in the 1975 referendum.

    IIRC the Daily Mail even said that 'They had never wavered in their support for Britain being part of Europe!'

    How times have changed!
    Labour's last 'official' dalliance with anti EU stuff (Jezza aside) was Bryan Goulds 1992 run vs John Smith of course
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,871
    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Half an hour at Passport control and not seeing cheaper groceries (in fact with inflation the opposite) and the numbers will collapse.
    If he's guffing off about 'excitement' over e gates you know it's garbage 🗑
    Yeah, and he didn't even get the egates!

    So, this summer, there will be a fuckload of disappointed British tourists, and his numbers tank even further
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323
    edited May 21
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    The median voter is indifferent on Starmer's deal, saying it is neither good nor bad, so we will wait and see whether the EU reset gives his government and the economy a boost.

    Of course on Brexit the political divide remains clear, 79% of Labour and 74% of LD voters want to rejoin the EU, 81% of Reform and 64% of Conservative voters don't. 71% of Labour and 79% of LD voters also want to rejoin the Single Market, compared to 37% of Conservative and just 22% of Reform voters who wish to rejoin the EEA.

    Conservative voters most common position is to keep the relationship with the EU as is, which 48% back and 28% oppose.

    Reform voters want to go even further, with 42% wanting to loosen the UK relationship with the EU even further, 27% opposed
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_Brexit_250519.pdf

    Back in the day, of course, it was the Conservatives who were the backbone of the campaigns a) to join and b) to vote Yes in the 1975 referendum.

    IIRC the Daily Mail even said that 'They had never wavered in their support for Britain being part of Europe!'

    How times have changed!
    Some not all, eg the likes of Enoch Powell and Teddy Taylor opposed EEC entry even in 1975.

    The only party which has consistently been pro EEC/EU are the Liberals from Thorpe campaigning for Yes to join in 1975 to Clegg being a key proponent of Remain in 2016 (as well as Foot Labour being anti EEC the SNP and Plaid originally opposed Scotland and Wales being in the EEC too)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,761
    It was truly international Pagan week until this new thread. Flooding the zone with an impressive work rate. Now silence. Whither the Pagan?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Sir Keir will be fairly content with these numbers. Those who have a negative opinion of his deal can be reasonably written off as the irreconcilables. By comparison didn't Dave's Deal get around a 70% negative response?

    The lettuce budget was generally popular initially of course........
    Once digested the tummy aches begin
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,568
    edited May 21
    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,761
    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Half an hour at Passport control and not seeing cheaper groceries (in fact with inflation the opposite) and the numbers will collapse.
    If he's guffing off about 'excitement' over e gates you know it's garbage 🗑
    That’s just retail politics. E-gates are understandable to the average voter. Borders are the potholes of international travel. SPS agreements are esoteric and of primary interest to agro-food business and international freight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,323
    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    If that 29% for good all voted Labour though it would likely ensure Starmer returned as PM after the next GE, even with a reduced or no majority at all
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,761
    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    Listening back to SAW-era Kylie. Unconsciously singing along to tracks I haven't heard in ages. I am Liberace Gay at this point...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Balls.
    You’re just a Farage foot soldier peddling propaganda.

    The reality is that it’s just not a big deal.
    If that's really the best you can say about it, it speaks volumes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    Leon said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Half an hour at Passport control and not seeing cheaper groceries (in fact with inflation the opposite) and the numbers will collapse.
    If he's guffing off about 'excitement' over e gates you know it's garbage 🗑
    Yeah, and he didn't even get the egates!

    So, this summer, there will be a fuckload of disappointed British tourists, and his numbers tank even further
    The more expensive barbeque summer ingredients won't assist him either - there is no 'cheaper bills at the supermarket' coming.
    Things probably come to a head for Starmer before then anyway - disability vote is the moment
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    TimS said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Half an hour at Passport control and not seeing cheaper groceries (in fact with inflation the opposite) and the numbers will collapse.
    If he's guffing off about 'excitement' over e gates you know it's garbage 🗑
    That’s just retail politics. E-gates are understandable to the average voter. Borders are the potholes of international travel. SPS agreements are esoteric and of primary interest to agro-food business and international freight.
    E gates are the penny off a pint of this. It's not the win with voters he seems to think imo
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    That's like saying that we could stop the small boat crossings by sending a big boat to collect everyone.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,195
    Luke Akehurst
    @lukeakehurst
    During the local elections I repeatedly heard from local pensioners across North Durham about the impact on their household finances of the means testing of the Winter Fuel Allowance. I am therefore very pleased that the Prime Minister has listened to the public on this issue and announced that because economic growth means the public finances are in a better place, the Government is able to review the income threshold for Winter Fuel Allowance. We heard you and we will be acting.

    https://x.com/lukeakehurst/status/1925168670377980073



    :lol: "because economic growth" has allowed. Yeh, right. Just LOL.

  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    The median voter is indifferent on Starmer's deal, saying it is neither good nor bad, so we will wait and see whether the EU reset gives his government and the economy a boost.

    Of course on Brexit the political divide remains clear, 79% of Labour and 74% of LD voters want to rejoin the EU, 81% of Reform and 64% of Conservative voters don't. 71% of Labour and 79% of LD voters also want to rejoin the Single Market, compared to 37% of Conservative and just 22% of Reform voters who wish to rejoin the EEA.

    Conservative voters most common position is to keep the relationship with the EU as is, which 48% back and 28% oppose.

    Reform voters want to go even further, with 42% wanting to loosen the UK relationship with the EU even further, 27% opposed
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_Brexit_250519.pdf

    Back in the day, of course, it was the Conservatives who were the backbone of the campaigns a) to join and b) to vote Yes in the 1975 referendum.

    IIRC the Daily Mail even said that 'They had never wavered in their support for Britain being part of Europe!'

    How times have changed!
    There’s a difference between an economic union and a political one
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    williamglenn said:

    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    That's like saying that we could stop the small boat crossings by sending a big boat to collect everyone.
    Redefining 'small boats' is probably a tactic amongst the mighty minds within Labour.
    A bit like their definition of removals
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,505
    rottenborough, did you get an answer on that Royal Mail shares thing? I have the same issue.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    williamglenn said:

    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    That's like saying that we could stop the small boat crossings by sending a big boat to collect everyone.
    Well Tim’s a Lib Dem and I don’t doubt that is something the Lib Dem’s would rather do than stop the boats or limit the numbers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    wooliedyed said:

    williamglenn said:

    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    That's like saying that we could stop the small boat crossings by sending a big boat to collect everyone.
    Redefining 'small boats' is probably a tactic amongst the mighty minds within Labour.
    A bit like their definition of removals
    "If you come into the country illegally, you'll be sent to Coventry."
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    rottenborough said:

    Luke Akehurst
    @lukeakehurst
    During the local elections I repeatedly heard from local pensioners across North Durham about the impact on their household finances of the means testing of the Winter Fuel Allowance. I am therefore very pleased that the Prime Minister has listened to the public on this issue and announced that because economic growth means the public finances are in a better place, the Government is able to review the income threshold for Winter Fuel Allowance. We heard you and we will be acting.

    https://x.com/lukeakehurst/status/1925168670377980073



    :lol: "because economic growth" has allowed. Yeh, right. Just LOL.

    *snicker* pure hilarity
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,157
    edited May 21
    Foss said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
    So does Google's instant translation thingy work for films and porn? Asking for millions of friends.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,455
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Foss said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
    So does Google's instant translation thingy work for films and porn? Asking for millions of friends.
    ...because your problems with porn is the dialogue???

    :):):):)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,174
    Foss said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
    Though wasn't the problem that it started wars rather than encourage understanding?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,683
    .
    Taz said:

    williamglenn said:

    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    That's like saying that we could stop the small boat crossings by sending a big boat to collect everyone.
    Well Tim’s a Lib Dem and I don’t doubt that is something the Lib Dem’s would rather do than stop the boats or limit the numbers.
    Everyone wants to stop the boats - people die.

    The challenge is *how*.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,767
    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    Yep, they could just take the ferry.

    While we're about it, let's reduce our crime rate by legalising muggings and murders.
    HYUFD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    The median voter is indifferent on Starmer's deal, saying it is neither good nor bad, so we will wait and see whether the EU reset gives his government and the economy a boost.

    Of course on Brexit the political divide remains clear, 79% of Labour and 74% of LD voters want to rejoin the EU, 81% of Reform and 64% of Conservative voters don't. 71% of Labour and 79% of LD voters also want to rejoin the Single Market, compared to 37% of Conservative and just 22% of Reform voters who wish to rejoin the EEA.

    Conservative voters most common position is to keep the relationship with the EU as is, which 48% back and 28% oppose.

    Reform voters want to go even further, with 42% wanting to loosen the UK relationship with the EU even further, 27% opposed
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_Brexit_250519.pdf

    Back in the day, of course, it was the Conservatives who were the backbone of the campaigns a) to join and b) to vote Yes in the 1975 referendum.

    IIRC the Daily Mail even said that 'They had never wavered in their support for Britain being part of Europe!'

    How times have changed!
    Some not all, eg the likes of Enoch Powell and Teddy Taylor opposed EEC entry even in 1975.

    Virtually all - of the 360 or so Conservative parliamentary party at the crucial second reading of the European Communities Bill in 1972, almost 95% voted in favour, only 16 against and 4 abstentions.

    It wasn't until Delors began to overreach in the late 1980s (ironically using Single Market powers that Margaret had backed in a rare error of judgement) that the Powells and the Taylors were more than an isolated fringe, together with the much more numerous anti-European Labour left.

    Then once Gordon Brown had reneged on his promise to hold a referendum on the repackaged constitution and Cameron had made his referendum lock promise, it was pretty obvious that our membership was on borrowed time.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,157
    London loses Europe tech crown to Paris
    ...
    Despite raising more venture capital than Paris in recent years, London’s tech firms saw a smaller gain in enterprise value, the report found Between 2017 and 2024, the total enterprise value of Paris tech firms grew just over fivefold, outpacing London’s 4.2 times over the same period.

    Paris’s AI sector is emerging as a particularly powerful force, with nearly half of the city’s $7.8bn in funding last year going to AI, including standout rounds from Mistral AI, Poolside, and Electra.
    https://www.cityam.com/london-loses-europe-tech-crown-to-paris/
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    viewcode said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Foss said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
    So does Google's instant translation thingy work for films and porn? Asking for millions of friends.
    ...because your problems with porn is the dialogue???

    :):):):)
    ‘Hey, ladies, I’ve come to mend the photocopier, it’s very hot in here. I need to take my shirt off’.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    She's hiding in Canada learning idiot economics from Carney and co
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,590
    TimS said:

    It was truly international Pagan week until this new thread. Flooding the zone with an impressive work rate. Now silence. Whither the Pagan?

    Away to catch crabs possibly.
  • occasionalranteroccasionalranter Posts: 506
    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    What's the movement relative to US, German, Japanese equivalents ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,459
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Foss said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
    So does Google's instant translation thingy work for films and porn? Asking for millions of friends.
    ...because your problems with porn is the dialogue???

    :):):):)
    ‘Hey, ladies, I’ve come to mend the photocopier, it’s very hot in here. I need to take my shirt off’.
    I thought that was a Diet Coke advert ???
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    TimS said:

    It was truly international Pagan week until this new thread. Flooding the zone with an impressive work rate. Now silence. Whither the Pagan?

    Arranging a meet-up with Leon in a spot like this to discuss the old country and cornish ancestors, I expect :
    https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunset-bedruthan-steps-carnewas-stretch-coastline-1655362936
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,455
    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,221
    Two points:

    Firstly, who are the people who want to join the EU but don't want to join the Customs Union or Single Market?

    Secondly, agreeing that Brexit has been a failure is different from thinking it was a bad idea. It was a good idea, poorly executed by the Tories. Labour are now attempting to turn the crap Tory version of Brexit into a positive Labour version of Brexit.

    (I appreciate that some will thing that there is no such thing as a good version of Brexit; here we will differ.)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,249
    williamglenn said:

    FF43 said:

    The counterfactual is not agreeing anything at all. It's hard to argue whatever comes out of these negotiations will make things worse.

    It will take at least the rest of this government to negotiate everything though.

    We don't tend to use the word because they're not very good at it, but this is a government obsessed with spin.
    To some extent.

    Thing is, those opposed to these negotiations have nothing to spin when legitimate assessments of them range between unimpressive and important.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,455
    ...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,313
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    She's hiding in Canada learning idiot economics from Carney and co
    The real problem Starmer has created is that any change in WFA will have his back benches asking what about the 2 child benefit cap ?

    I wouldn't trust Starmer to fight his way out of a paper bag
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,249
    Taz said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    The median voter is indifferent on Starmer's deal, saying it is neither good nor bad, so we will wait and see whether the EU reset gives his government and the economy a boost.

    Of course on Brexit the political divide remains clear, 79% of Labour and 74% of LD voters want to rejoin the EU, 81% of Reform and 64% of Conservative voters don't. 71% of Labour and 79% of LD voters also want to rejoin the Single Market, compared to 37% of Conservative and just 22% of Reform voters who wish to rejoin the EEA.

    Conservative voters most common position is to keep the relationship with the EU as is, which 48% back and 28% oppose.

    Reform voters want to go even further, with 42% wanting to loosen the UK relationship with the EU even further, 27% opposed
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_Brexit_250519.pdf

    Back in the day, of course, it was the Conservatives who were the backbone of the campaigns a) to join and b) to vote Yes in the 1975 referendum.

    IIRC the Daily Mail even said that 'They had never wavered in their support for Britain being part of Europe!'

    How times have changed!
    There’s a difference between an economic union and a political one
    I challenge that you can have an economic union without it being political.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,221
    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    Being landlocked is a good way to avoid small boat crossings.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    occasionalranter said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    What's the movement relative to US, German, Japanese equivalents ?
    What’s the movement of inflation relative to the US and the EU ?
  • occasionalranteroccasionalranter Posts: 506
    occasionalranter said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    What's the movement relative to US, German, Japanese equivalents ?
    I'll answer my own question. All up 0.04% today except Japan.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Foss said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
    So does Google's instant translation thingy work for films and porn? Asking for millions of friends.
    ...because your problems with porn is the dialogue???

    :):):):)
    ‘Hey, ladies, I’ve come to mend the photocopier, it’s very hot in here. I need to take my shirt off’.
    I thought that was a Diet Coke advert ???
    Wasn’t that window cleaning ? Not that I’m too familiar with the ad
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,933
    SandyRentool said:

    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    Being landlocked is a good way to avoid small boat crossings.
    You are right, I don't suppose there are many refugees coming across the Bodensee
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    She's hiding in Canada learning idiot economics from Carney and co
    The real problem Starmer has created is that any change in WFA will have his back benches asking what about the 2 child benefit cap ?

    I wouldn't trust Starmer to fight his way out of a paper bag
    Disability cuts will be first, then (if he survives, I doubt it and I think Rayner is PM by Autumn) 2 child cap
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    edited May 21
    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him an Reofrm v Labour fight and it is for quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.

    As things stand.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,459
    @CHueyBurns

    House Speaker Johnson and members of the House Freedom Caucus are heading to the White House this afternoon to meet with President Trump on budget bill.
    @JakeSherman
    first to report.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,417
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Foss said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Foss said:

    viewcode said:

    Google introduces real time translation for video calls

    https://xcancel.com/0xgaut/status/1924895003593089457#m

    That’s ridiculously cool.
    Nah, thats rubbish. The Tardis has been doing that since 1963.
    But the babelfish is far more portable.
    So does Google's instant translation thingy work for films and porn? Asking for millions of friends.
    ...because your problems with porn is the dialogue???

    :):):):)
    ‘Hey, ladies, I’ve come to mend the photocopier, it’s very hot in here. I need to take my shirt off’.
    "No time for the old in-out, love. I've just come to read the meter!"
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    SandyRentool said:

    TimS said:

    Of course if we were in Schengen like Switzerland is, we wouldn’t even need e-gates, and the small boat crossings would stop overnight.

    Being landlocked is a good way to avoid small boat crossings.
    Good example of someone trying to take in a short sentence, and by the end forgetting what the first half said.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,936
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Good 29% Bad 26%
    Very Good 6% Very Bad 16%

    This is a disastrous response to it for Starmer and Labour.

    Yep

    With luck the press and Reform can batter and batter at these numbers until it is 30% very bad and 1% very good (which is correct, as it is bad) and then Starmer must be nailed to it for all time. Make it as calamitous as Winter Fuel
    Balls.
    You’re just a Farage foot soldier peddling propaganda.

    The reality is that it’s just not a big deal.
    If that's really the best you can say about it, it speaks volumes.
    Well Leon made zero effort, so I didn't think I need bother.
    And if you're under the impression I'm a fan of Starmer; I'm not.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,871
    wooliedyed said:

    Hello all, thought I'd drop by for a visit and let you know I'm still extant! Interesting times we live in with Starmer going down like a cup of cold sick everywhere and Kemi failing to capitalise whilst reform run riot. I've been doing a bit of number crunching on prospects in Norfolk for the next election and elsewhere where the Tories or Labour will best hold off the turquoise tide- might stay for a few days and post in some of it but I'm expecting Norfolk to be generally turquoise at the moment (including Norwich North and potentially South if Lewis goes rogue and defects or is removed or if Labour go sub 20 nationally) - Tories might hang on in Broadland and could retake South Norfolk but could equally easily lose both. I'm expecting the lowest ever Labour opinion poll rating over the summer (18 currently) and Tories could go sub Truss's 14 in a poll or two.
    Some of the seat calculations on models are a bit overdone imo, I'm expecting (to take in the previous threads premise for a sec) LD tactical unwind and a bit of 're efficiency' in the Tory vote and a bit of de efficiency in Labour (as tactical voting goes against them), although they are heading for a 24 style Tory vote collapse anyway.
    Hope you're all well anyway. Glorious George is having fun trolling Starmer today. Plus ca change

    Huzzah!

    It's Woolie. Nice to see you, old pip
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,313
    occasionalranter said:

    occasionalranter said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    What's the movement relative to US, German, Japanese equivalents ?
    I'll answer my own question. All up 0.04% today except Japan.
    The only relevant issue over rising bond rates is Reeves is boxed in even further, and whataboutery is not going to give her a free pass
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    Leon said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Hello all, thought I'd drop by for a visit and let you know I'm still extant! Interesting times we live in with Starmer going down like a cup of cold sick everywhere and Kemi failing to capitalise whilst reform run riot. I've been doing a bit of number crunching on prospects in Norfolk for the next election and elsewhere where the Tories or Labour will best hold off the turquoise tide- might stay for a few days and post in some of it but I'm expecting Norfolk to be generally turquoise at the moment (including Norwich North and potentially South if Lewis goes rogue and defects or is removed or if Labour go sub 20 nationally) - Tories might hang on in Broadland and could retake South Norfolk but could equally easily lose both. I'm expecting the lowest ever Labour opinion poll rating over the summer (18 currently) and Tories could go sub Truss's 14 in a poll or two.
    Some of the seat calculations on models are a bit overdone imo, I'm expecting (to take in the previous threads premise for a sec) LD tactical unwind and a bit of 're efficiency' in the Tory vote and a bit of de efficiency in Labour (as tactical voting goes against them), although they are heading for a 24 style Tory vote collapse anyway.
    Hope you're all well anyway. Glorious George is having fun trolling Starmer today. Plus ca change

    Huzzah!

    It's Woolie. Nice to see you, old pip
    Passing through old chap but might stop for a few beers and a rest on my way
    Likewise
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,704
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    occasionalranter said:

    occasionalranter said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    What's the movement relative to US, German, Japanese equivalents ?
    I'll answer my own question. All up 0.04% today except Japan.
    The only relevant issue over rising bond rates is Reeves is boxed in even further, and whataboutery is not going to give her a free pass
    It looks like CPI inflation will be around 4% or maybe more in September, much more than expected a little while ago, and this will put additional strain on public finances as the uplift to benefits (and to an extent the state pension) is based on September CPI
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    edited May 21
    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
    I agree with Reform favoured. Tory vs Reform seats are North Northumberland, Hexham, Middlesborough South, Stockton West, Darlington and (perhaps) Bishop Auckland
    Tories outperformed in Northumberland versus nationally May 1st (very relative term though!)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,313
    londonpubman said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    occasionalranter said:

    occasionalranter said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    What's the movement relative to US, German, Japanese equivalents ?
    I'll answer my own question. All up 0.04% today except Japan.
    The only relevant issue over rising bond rates is Reeves is boxed in even further, and whataboutery is not going to give her a free pass
    It looks like CPI inflation will be around 4% or maybe more in September, much more than expected a little while ago, and this will put additional strain on public finances as the uplift to benefits (and to an extent the state pension) is based on September CPI
    The pay demands by the unions will be the next issue for Reeves

    I am not sure she will survive to the Autumn budget
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,731
    SandyRentool said:

    Two points:

    Firstly, who are the people who want to join the EU but don't want to join the Customs Union or Single Market?

    Secondly, agreeing that Brexit has been a failure is different from thinking it was a bad idea. It was a good idea, poorly executed by the Tories. Labour are now attempting to turn the crap Tory version of Brexit into a positive Labour version of Brexit.

    (I appreciate that some will thing that there is no such thing as a good version of Brexit; here we will differ.)

    I'm baffled by the idea that "Brexit has been a failure". Brexit simply meant leaving the EU, no longer paying money into the EU, no longer having a say in how the EU evolves and so on. That has been completed successfully. People believe it has been a failure because they feel that they are worse off now than before Brexit. The trouble is we have two ginormous confounders - Covid and a major war in Europe that mask the effects of Brexit. Too often this is not accounted for. Too often the negative of Brexit seems to devolve to "I had to queue at the airport while others just breezed through".

    If the only reason for voting for Brexit was that you believed it would be economically in Britain's interest to do so then you may proclaim it a failure. But that was never the case.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,505
    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    I don't think they need to lurch right but what they do need to do - somehow - is make sure Immigration isn't a dominating issue by the time of the GE. Conversely, the task for Farage & Co is to keep people in a high state of dudgeon about it for the next 4 years. I think Farage has the slightly harder task.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
    I agree with Reform favoured. Tory vs Reform seats are North Northumberland, Hexham, Middlesborough South, Stockton West, Darlington and (perhaps) Bishop Auckland
    Tories outperformed in Northumberland versus nationally May 1st (very relative term though!)
    I think you’re right on the seats, Bishop Auckland is interesting, and @eek may have a view too, that a lot of new development is 3/4 bed houses on nice estates. Whenever I go down I get the impression of an area that’s improving. Hartlepool will be Reform but along the A690 lots of nice houses going up too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,313
    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    I don't think they need to lurch right but what they do need to do - somehow - is make sure Immigration isn't a dominating issue by the time of the GE. Conversely, the task for Farage & Co is to keep people in a high state of dudgeon about it for the next 4 years. I think Farage has the slightly harder task.
    I don't
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    According to the left most voters are stupid as they didn't vote for corbyn style leftie shit.....why are you now saying they are right because they agree with you?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    edited May 21
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    londonpubman said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    occasionalranter said:

    occasionalranter said:

    Taz said:

    U.K. 10 year up again.

    Rachel Truss strikes again.

    https://x.com/notayesmansecon/status/1925110327747747912?s=61

    What's the movement relative to US, German, Japanese equivalents ?
    I'll answer my own question. All up 0.04% today except Japan.
    The only relevant issue over rising bond rates is Reeves is boxed in even further, and whataboutery is not going to give her a free pass
    It looks like CPI inflation will be around 4% or maybe more in September, much more than expected a little while ago, and this will put additional strain on public finances as the uplift to benefits (and to an extent the state pension) is based on September CPI
    The pay demands by the unions will be the next issue for Reeves

    I am not sure she will survive to the Autumn budget
    She goes with Starmer after the Ginger Revolution. Diane specifically mentioning Rayner in her interview and the Telegraph 'scoop' was the starting gun. Rayner will (i think) quit before the disability vote etc and challenge
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    edited May 21
    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
    I agree with Reform favoured. Tory vs Reform seats are North Northumberland, Hexham, Middlesborough South, Stockton West, Darlington and (perhaps) Bishop Auckland
    Tories outperformed in Northumberland versus nationally May 1st (very relative term though!)
    I think you’re right on the seats, Bishop Auckland is interesting, and @eek may have a view too, that a lot of new development is 3/4 bed houses on nice estates. Whenever I go down I get the impression of an area that’s improving. Hartlepool will be Reform but along the A690 lots of nice houses going up too.
    BA was disappointing for the Tories last year though - I had it much more like the Darlington result.
    Redcar could (as ever) be the crucible of chaos
    Edit - pool will be VERY Reform!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    TimS said:

    It was truly international Pagan week until this new thread. Flooding the zone with an impressive work rate. Now silence. Whither the Pagan?

    We are always around just often we stay in the background
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,459
    turbotubbs said:

    I'm baffled by the idea that "Brexit has been a failure".

    Anybody who thinks their life is worse as a result is entitled to label it a failure.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    edited May 21
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
    I agree with Reform favoured. Tory vs Reform seats are North Northumberland, Hexham, Middlesborough South, Stockton West, Darlington and (perhaps) Bishop Auckland
    Tories outperformed in Northumberland versus nationally May 1st (very relative term though!)
    I think you’re right on the seats, Bishop Auckland is interesting, and @eek may have a view too, that a lot of new development is 3/4 bed houses on nice estates. Whenever I go down I get the impression of an area that’s improving. Hartlepool will be Reform but along the A690 lots of nice houses going up too.
    BA was disappointing for the Tories last year though - I had it much more like the Darlington result.
    Redcar could (as ever) be the crucible of chaos
    Edit - pool will be VERY Reform!
    Redcar will go Reform in my view. Largely down to Redcar. Marske and Saltburn don’t strike me as Reformy. But their population is smaller. Don’t know the other parts.

    Just looked at the BA result. Labour only gained about 5%. Surely next time round they’re toast.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    WhisperingOracle said:

    TimS said:

    It was truly international Pagan week until this new thread. Flooding the zone with an impressive work rate. Now silence. Whither the Pagan?

    Arranging a meet-up with Leon in a spot like this to discuss the old country and cornish ancestors, I expect :
    https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunset-bedruthan-steps-carnewas-stretch-coastline-1655362936
    Nah his ancestors are from the wrong part of cornwall
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,871
    turbotubbs said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Two points:

    Firstly, who are the people who want to join the EU but don't want to join the Customs Union or Single Market?

    Secondly, agreeing that Brexit has been a failure is different from thinking it was a bad idea. It was a good idea, poorly executed by the Tories. Labour are now attempting to turn the crap Tory version of Brexit into a positive Labour version of Brexit.

    (I appreciate that some will thing that there is no such thing as a good version of Brexit; here we will differ.)

    I'm baffled by the idea that "Brexit has been a failure". Brexit simply meant leaving the EU, no longer paying money into the EU, no longer having a say in how the EU evolves and so on. That has been completed successfully. People believe it has been a failure because they feel that they are worse off now than before Brexit. The trouble is we have two ginormous confounders - Covid and a major war in Europe that mask the effects of Brexit. Too often this is not accounted for. Too often the negative of Brexit seems to devolve to "I had to queue at the airport while others just breezed through".

    If the only reason for voting for Brexit was that you believed it would be economically in Britain's interest to do so then you may proclaim it a failure. But that was never the case.
    A whole bunch of people voted Brexit in order to Take Back Control - of the borders. They wanted an end to mass immigration

    For them it has absolutely failed, thanks to the idiot Tories. Who lost control of the small boats, and completely lost control of legal migration, with the Boriswave

    If I was a Leave voter with immigration as my main concern, I would be seriously hacked off, and rightly so. It doesn't mean they regret the actual vote
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    edited May 21
    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
    I agree with Reform favoured. Tory vs Reform seats are North Northumberland, Hexham, Middlesborough South, Stockton West, Darlington and (perhaps) Bishop Auckland
    Tories outperformed in Northumberland versus nationally May 1st (very relative term though!)
    I think you’re right on the seats, Bishop Auckland is interesting, and @eek may have a view too, that a lot of new development is 3/4 bed houses on nice estates. Whenever I go down I get the impression of an area that’s improving. Hartlepool will be Reform but along the A690 lots of nice houses going up too.
    BA was disappointing for the Tories last year though - I had it much more like the Darlington result.
    Redcar could (as ever) be the crucible of chaos
    Edit - pool will be VERY Reform!
    Redcar will go Reform in my view. Largely down to Redcar. Marske and Saltburn don’t strike me as Reformy. But their population is smaller. Don’t know the other parts.
    I agree, Reform likely here but there are some very weird Houchen effects. How his mayorship goes could swing a couple seats

    Edit - yes Labour are dead in BA but Reform i think now probably swamp the Tories too, they (tories) are quite likely to be focusing on the two big rural seats, Stockton and Middlesborough South with BA, Darlington and maybe Redcar as long shots
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    Scott_xP said:

    turbotubbs said:

    I'm baffled by the idea that "Brexit has been a failure".

    Anybody who thinks their life is worse as a result is entitled to label it a failure.
    You mean like my friend who feels his life is worse because he can no longer do what he had no intention of doing in the first place,,,,nods brexit has failed him
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
    I agree with Reform favoured. Tory vs Reform seats are North Northumberland, Hexham, Middlesborough South, Stockton West, Darlington and (perhaps) Bishop Auckland
    Tories outperformed in Northumberland versus nationally May 1st (very relative term though!)
    I think you’re right on the seats, Bishop Auckland is interesting, and @eek may have a view too, that a lot of new development is 3/4 bed houses on nice estates. Whenever I go down I get the impression of an area that’s improving. Hartlepool will be Reform but along the A690 lots of nice houses going up too.
    BA was disappointing for the Tories last year though - I had it much more like the Darlington result.
    Redcar could (as ever) be the crucible of chaos
    Edit - pool will be VERY Reform!
    Redcar will go Reform in my view. Largely down to Redcar. Marske and Saltburn don’t strike me as Reformy. But their population is smaller. Don’t know the other parts.
    I agree, Reform likely here but there are some very weird Houchen effects. How his mayorship goes could swing a couple seats
    Do you reckon he helped keep the Tories Stockton West ?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    Pagan2 said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    TimS said:

    It was truly international Pagan week until this new thread. Flooding the zone with an impressive work rate. Now silence. Whither the Pagan?

    Arranging a meet-up with Leon in a spot like this to discuss the old country and cornish ancestors, I expect :
    https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunset-bedruthan-steps-carnewas-stretch-coastline-1655362936
    Nah his ancestors are from the wrong part of cornwall
    Come, now. You two enjoyed connecting yesterday.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,756
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    I don't think they need to lurch right but what they do need to do - somehow - is make sure Immigration isn't a dominating issue by the time of the GE. Conversely, the task for Farage & Co is to keep people in a high state of dudgeon about it for the next 4 years. I think Farage has the slightly harder task.
    I don't
    Yes, for it not to be an issue:
    1) immigration has to come down
    2) 'bad' immigration has to come down,
    3) 'bad'immigrants have to be inconspicuous, and
    4) conspicuous bad immigrants have to actually be deported.

    Starmer can only actually influence one of these - the first - which is the one which matters least.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,220
    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Taz said:

    wooliedyed said:

    viewcode said:

    Luke Akehurst on LabourList on why Labour should go more right-wing to chase Reform voters. I disagree strongly[1], but I thought you'd like to read it: https://labourlist.org/2025/05/labour-reform-uk-progressive-illusion-myth-busting/

    [1] For the contrary view, see this thread by Steve Akehurst (no relation) . As Rob Ford puts it, “Nigel Farage is right, don’t vote for him”is stupid politics

    Akehurst is convinced 20(29) is a straight Reform Labour fight with everyone willingly giving up their votes for others to join the battle royal. Barmy.
    Well it certainly is for him and quite a few of his fellow North East MPs.
    Hexham and North Northumberland Tory, couple of Tory Reform fights in the Teeside mayoralty area and the rest Reform outside Geordie City central
    I’m in North Durham. I think all of Durham. Newcastle, both Shields, Mackems and Gateshead are Reform v Labour as it stands now.
    I agree with Reform favoured. Tory vs Reform seats are North Northumberland, Hexham, Middlesborough South, Stockton West, Darlington and (perhaps) Bishop Auckland
    Tories outperformed in Northumberland versus nationally May 1st (very relative term though!)
    I think you’re right on the seats, Bishop Auckland is interesting, and @eek may have a view too, that a lot of new development is 3/4 bed houses on nice estates. Whenever I go down I get the impression of an area that’s improving. Hartlepool will be Reform but along the A690 lots of nice houses going up too.
    BA was disappointing for the Tories last year though - I had it much more like the Darlington result.
    Redcar could (as ever) be the crucible of chaos
    Edit - pool will be VERY Reform!
    Redcar will go Reform in my view. Largely down to Redcar. Marske and Saltburn don’t strike me as Reformy. But their population is smaller. Don’t know the other parts.
    I agree, Reform likely here but there are some very weird Houchen effects. How his mayorship goes could swing a couple seats
    Do you reckon he helped keep the Tories Stockton West ?
    Oh totally, yes. He also got them their much less terrible Darlington, Middlesborough and Redcar results
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 176
    The idea that any kind of negotation with the EU is somehow a betrayal of Brexit sets a new high bar for fuckwittedness.

    It's only *because* of Brexit that one gets to deal *with* the EU as an outside party rather than as a part *of* the EU.

    If Kemi tries to spin this as the narrative she's going to lose even more support from the vaguely intelligent voter. Including, in all likelihood, many Eurosceptics who aren't complete fucking idiots.

    I don't like Starmer and I don't like the EU, but the chance of me buying into this kind of nonsense was always zero.
This discussion has been closed.

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