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It’s grim up North for Labour and the South isn’t any better – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,705
    Scott Jennings jokes on CNN that if he were president he’d send anyone who reclines their seat on a plane to El Salvador.

    https://x.com/vigilantfox/status/1910170492821962955
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,515

    Some good news for a change. Well in my opinion anyway.

    Philip Collins
    @PhilipJCollins1
    ·
    1h
    For anyone who once really liked The Times you might like the new incarnation of The Observer. I am going to join soon and that's where I will be doing my writing.

    "Another Day In Paradise"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    edited April 11

    Five surprising wine and ice cream pairings
    ...

    The classic: PX sherry with vanilla
    Surprise red wine pairing: Pinot noir with chocolate and cherry
    Fruity sweet wine with fruit: Spätlese riesling with peach melba
    Dairy and tawny: Tawny port with millionaire’s ice cream
    French twist: Sauternes with coconut ice cream

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/wine/wine-and-ice-cream-pairings/ (£££)

    PB needs its own food, wine and travel correspondent.

    Does that not entirely reach normal Telegraph standards of downmarket, and they would all be perfect concoctions for Abigail's Party or Tik Tok?

    Millionaire's Ice-Cream FFS?

    What about Triple Chocolate Something Something Something, or Vienetta?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,406
    Pulpstar said:

    Apple doing well today. Must be a great time lined up for Indian production.

    Tim Cook is a supply chain guru.

    Maybe he saw this shit coming?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,602

    "Another Day In Paradise"
    The new series of Black Mirror started this week too.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,491
    Leon said:

    Can someone persuade me that central and west Africa are worth visiting? And the more Islamy parts of North Africa?

    Because that would open up 2/3 of a continent I’ve never seen (I’ve seen south and east Africa, and Ethiopia, Egypt and Morocco - ie the good bits)

    The trouble is when anyone I trust goes to central/west/Islamy Africa they come back saying Hmm, yeah, not great, I had one decent curry, etc

    Why don't you travel up the Congo as Michael Wood did in 1984:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TazS5BzAd-8

    And see if its changed for better or worse.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    edited April 11

    "Another Day In Paradise"
    I can hear it, coming but with hair tonight ... Oh Gawd !!
  • stodge said:

    I've seen Farage has said he doesn't want any new Reform councillors elected on May 1st to go into joint administrations with any other party. The practicalities of governance are going to force the new cohort of Reform councillors to get their hands dirty.

    As an example, Kent - it seems likely the Conservatives will lose seats to Reform but they could also lose seats to the LDs and Greens leaving Reform short of an overall majority. If they are, however, the largest party on the new county council, what would the Reform caucus do?
    Well if they followed St Nigel they would go into opposition whilst the others built a coalition around them. Nigel is monumentally stupid on this issue.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,672
    ...

    Well if they followed St Nigel they would go into opposition whilst the others built a coalition around them. Nigel is monumentally stupid on this issue.
    I think this might be politicking, to avoid the impression that voting for Reform is a vote for the Tories. Perhaps Labour's 'Vote Nige get Nigerian' posters have actually bothered Farage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited April 11
    Dreadful set of local by election results for Labour last night. Losing a seat in inner London to the Greens to their left and losing a seat in white working class Greater Manchester to Reform to their populist right.

    They are in real danger of a pincer movement in local elections if that trend continues over the next few years, losing seats in inner London and other inner cities and university towns to the Greens, losing seats in white working class ex industrial and seaside towns to Reform, losing seats in the rural shires to the Tories and losing seats in more prosperous commuter belt market towns and suburbs to the Tories and LDs. While also losing seats in Scotland to the SNP and LDs and in Wales to Plaid and Reform
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 752
    ohnotnow said:

    Cointreau in chocolate milk-shake is quite like drinking a creamy Terry's Chocolate Orange.

    I've been told.
    Baileys poured over vanilla ice cream works well...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    edited April 11

    ...

    I think this might be politicking, to avoid the impression that voting for Reform is a vote for the Tories. Perhaps Labour's 'Vote Nige get Nigerian' posters have actually bothered Farage.
    Does anyone have a number for how many of the Reform Councillors were formerly Something Something Independents?

    I don't have firm data, but it's a lot.

    Of our local three at District Level, there is an ex-Lab, an ex-Tory, and an ex-Ashfield Independent.

    In addition the Leeanderthal Man fits into the first two categories, and probably "Independent" from when he was effectively hoofed out of Labour by (allegedly) the Corbynistas *. He is not yet ex-Reform, but would perhaps follow The Nigel out if Rupert Bear did a reverse-takeover.

    * In my assessment he is right on that point.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,491

    Indeed. Currently 8000% over target. Which isn't quite as much as Putin (over 37000%) but he's catching up.
    Isn't Musk 0.15% towards cutting federal spending by the promised $2tr ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,491
    Leon said:

    The lakes of Tien Shan

    Pretty but also a tad touristy. As you can see

    What places are left without tourists?!



    Grimsby.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,808

    ...

    Sure. We can (and should, and will in my opinion) remove the Human Rights Act and leave the ECHR. But that will not decalcify the judiciary from a culture that seeks deliberately to undermine social cohesion, make a mockery of border security, and excuse lawlessness. A culture that has also taken hold within the police force and probably in every other public body that you care to name.
    'stop the world, i want to get off'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,406
    US mortgage rate hits 7%


    Brace.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,406

    Grimsby.
    The problem with the photo is a lack of dog for size.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited April 11
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Labour's "exposure" in three weeks time is nowhere near that of the Conservatives in terms of seats held and potential losses.

    On a quick count of the County Councils due to hold elections, the Conservatives will be defending 554 seats and Labour just 128 so it's the former with much more skin in the game and much more to lose.

    That's not to say it won't be a difficult night for Labour but in terms of counting the losses, I suspect the Conservatives will be doing more counting.

    Yet Electoral Calculus forecasts the Tories will still win most council seats up in May, 548, to 474 Reform, 270 LD, 252 Labour and 77 Other and 27 Green.

    The Tories are forecast to make most losses though, down 872 councillors, followed by Labour down 89 and the Greens down 20 and the LDs down 4.

    Reform projected to make by far the biggest gains with 474 new councillors

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,672
    Tres said:

    'stop the world, i want to get off'
    Do you ducks? That's a shame. I can imagine you being a bit queasy about emerging blinking into Nigel's new dawn, but rest assured I will be here to help you through it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    edited April 11
    Penddu2 said:

    Baileys poured over vanilla ice cream works well...
    Does @Taz make his own Baileys not-Irish Cream? I sometimes get a bottle at Christmas from a T who makes her own; in effective exchange for a bottle of an old style non-alcoholic beverage such as a Ginger drink or a Fruit Vinegar.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    edited April 11

    Do you ducks? That's a shame. I can imagine you being a bit queasy about emerging blinking into Nigel's new dawn, but rest assured I will be here to help you through it.
    That reminded me that there was a duck in the late 1970s Tomorrow's World titles:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERaF-h8UhvU&list=PLWdAraGbsC_YHiIkstLUk0xHOXfBAlJPd&index=2

    But then I remembered it was actually in Play Away under "Give Us a Y", which I can't so find so this will have to do:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERaF-h8UhvU&list=PLWdAraGbsC_YHiIkstLUk0xHOXfBAlJPd
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,491
    MSNBC discussion which references how many US manufacturing vacancies and recruitment difficulties currently exist:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D7tdobn2ts

    Where millions of new low paid, low skilled factory workers are to come from nobody can explain.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082
    Tres said:

    'stop the world, i want to get off'
    Buckle up. You're not getting off this ride.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im8Z34fUuuY
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    Nigelb said:

    German manufacturer Rheinmetall is massively expanding its ammunition production.

    The production capacity of 155mm artillery shells will increase fifteenfold by 2027 compared to the level at the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. Production of 120 mm caliber ammunition for battle tanks will increase fourfold.

    It is also noted that at the new 155 mm ammunition factory in Unterluss, built in just 13 months, the first ammunition is expected to be produced as early as April-May 2025. The factory will eventually manufacture some 200,000 artillery shells a year.

    https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1910575502735057325

    They have had an on the edge operation exporting ammunition factories to multiple countries outside most export controls from South Africa for a number of years, so they should be able to build them quickly.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,437
    HYUFD said:

    Yet Electoral Calculus forecasts the Tories will still win most council seats up in May, 548, to 474 Reform, 270 LD, 252 Labour and 77 Other and 27 Green.

    The Tories are forecast to make most losses though, down 872 councillors, followed by Labour down 89 and the Greens down 20 and the LDs down 4.

    Reform projected to make by far the biggest gains with 474 new councillors

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
    That poll is nearly a month old so we'll have to say what resemblance (if any) it bears to reality.

    In addition, some authorities such as Buckinghamshire have undergone boundary changes so the actual number of councillors being elected is reduced (in Buckinghamhshire's case there will be 50 fewer councllors so even if the Conservatives won every seat on the new council, which they won't, they would still have 13 fewer councillors than they do now).

    There's also the matter of control of council rather than just counting the number of councillors. The Conservatives control 19 of the 23 authorities (county, unitary and metropolitan) being contested, Labour just the one. How many will remain in Conservative control if the party loses more than half its seats?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,216
    edited April 11

    Any excuse to post the Prime Minister's press conference from Little Britain!
    Roy Sloane, Whizzer and Chips: Are you concerned you've lost your strongest ally in the Cabinet?
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/d9CQRinbxLo
    "Oh I'm sorry, I've forgotten the question"; one of my favourite pieces of comedy. Completely absurd
  • eekeek Posts: 29,689

    US mortgage rate hits 7%


    Brace.

    That means a 100% chance of a US recession, unless its fixed rapidly...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,437
    HYUFD said:

    Dreadful set of local by election results for Labour last night. Losing a seat in inner London to the Greens to their left and losing a seat in white working class Greater Manchester to Reform to their populist right.

    They are in real danger of a pincer movement in local elections if that trend continues over the next few years, losing seats in inner London and other inner cities and university towns to the Greens, losing seats in white working class ex industrial and seaside towns to Reform, losing seats in the rural shires to the Tories and losing seats in more prosperous commuter belt market towns and suburbs to the Tories and LDs. While also losing seats in Scotland to the SNP and LDs and in Wales to Plaid and Reform

    Poor results for the Conservatives - for example, a near 13% swing to the LDs in Sutton Central suggesting the LDs will keep control in 2026. There is a more interesting by election in Carshalton South & Clockhouse next month which will be perhaps more informative.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,515
    Interesting evisceration of Mt Trump in the last few days, on the Times Trump Report. Scott Lucas. Quite a nice analogy of how the Playground Bully performance will not because all the attempted victims will simply create a new playground.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D2Rzo8JDMY&list=PLGeQKoGUstRA9Zv-J_Qdc9Ldrcea-HdrD

    The exact opposite of the Nat Con Squad I posted earlier.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777
    Drinking a beer watching people unsubscribe from my channel. The rebrand plus *why* (in tonight’s video) has upset the crowd who cannot hear anyone say anything they disagree with.
    A culling of a few fanboys was needed so that we can grow much bigger without them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    stodge said:

    Poor results for the Conservatives - for example, a near 13% swing to the LDs in Sutton Central suggesting the LDs will keep control in 2026. There is a more interesting by election in Carshalton South & Clockhouse next month which will be perhaps more informative.
    Even in Sutton Central the Labour vote was down more, 17% down compared to the Tory vote down 10%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,240
    I think the big news here is that the libdems lost almost 60% of their vote in Haringey.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    stodge said:

    That poll is nearly a month old so we'll have to say what resemblance (if any) it bears to reality.

    In addition, some authorities such as Buckinghamshire have undergone boundary changes so the actual number of councillors being elected is reduced (in Buckinghamhshire's case there will be 50 fewer councllors so even if the Conservatives won every seat on the new council, which they won't, they would still have 13 fewer councillors than they do now).

    There's also the matter of control of council rather than just counting the number of councillors. The Conservatives control 19 of the 23 authorities (county, unitary and metropolitan) being contested, Labour just the one. How many will remain in Conservative control if the party loses more than half its seats?
    A few like Buckinghamshire and Wiltshire likely stay Tory majority, others like Devon, Lincolnshire and Herts may well see Tory and Reform deals to keep control
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the big news here is that the libdems lost almost 60% of their vote in Haringey.

    Which we used to hold in the Commons. For 8 years! Times change. Harringey is a very different place than it was 20 years ago
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 597
    edited April 11
    Starmer has to stop being a chicken shit simping for reform voters and instead start working for the people who voted for him: rejoiners. 🤷‍♂️ it is pretty bloody easy. Trump loathing rejoiners are 2/3 of the electorate. Start doing politics to that reality. 🙄🙄🙄
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,032
    isam said:

    "Oh I'm sorry, I've forgotten the question"; one of my favourite pieces of comedy. Completely absurd
    And the Telegraph punchline!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited April 11

    Starmer has to stop being a chicken shit simping for reform voters and instead start working for the people who voted for him: rejoiners. 🤷‍♂️ it is pretty bloody easy. Trump loathing rejoinerd are 2/3 of the electorate. Start doing politics to that reality. 🙄🙄🙄

    2/3 certainly don't want to rejoin the EU with the Euro etc beyond most LD and Green voters, at most a UK majority would be for rejoining EFTA now with the exception of most Reform voters
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,861
    edited April 11
    rcs1000 said:

    I think the big news here is that the libdems lost almost 60% of their vote in Haringey.

    The average LD voter is now more likely to live in the Home Counties than inner London, whereas under Charles Kennedy it was inner cities and university towns where they made the biggest gains (such voters now are shifting Green)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,560
    A council I'd keep one eye on for the extent it resists Reform because of competence is Doncaster.

    Their English Democrats experience was not a happy one and they've seemed a bit more traditional in their voting patterns since.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,007

    Which we used to hold in the Commons. For 8 years! Times change. Harringey is a very different place than it was 20 years ago
    Good evening

    The world is a very different place in just 4 months, let alone 20 years !!!!!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,032
    MattW said:

    That reminded me that there was a duck in the late 1970s Tomorrow's World titles:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERaF-h8UhvU&list=PLWdAraGbsC_YHiIkstLUk0xHOXfBAlJPd&index=2

    But then I remembered it was actually in Play Away under "Give Us a Y", which I can't so find so this will have to do:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERaF-h8UhvU&list=PLWdAraGbsC_YHiIkstLUk0xHOXfBAlJPd
    After my time but are those ducks in the Playaway end titles?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egNCSxuHH0w
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,705

    Starmer has to stop being a chicken shit simping for reform voters and instead start working for the people who voted for him: rejoiners. 🤷‍♂️ it is pretty bloody easy. Trump loathing rejoiners are 2/3 of the electorate. Start doing politics to that reality. 🙄🙄🙄

    2/3 of the electorate want to restore the death penalty. I'm not sure that reconciles with your view of where the centre of political gravity is.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777
    Net -26 subscribers in 4 hours. With some of them it’s like the scene in Downfall where the Nazis hear that Hilter is dead and immediately shoot themselves
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,139

    Drinking a beer watching people unsubscribe from my channel. The rebrand plus *why* (in tonight’s video) has upset the crowd who cannot hear anyone say anything they disagree with.
    A culling of a few fanboys was needed so that we can grow much bigger without them

    Is this your car channel or your new politics channel?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044

    Starmer has to stop being a chicken shit simping for reform voters and instead start working for the people who voted for him: rejoiners. 🤷‍♂️ it is pretty bloody easy. Trump loathing rejoiners are 2/3 of the electorate. Start doing politics to that reality. 🙄🙄🙄

    Starmer begging for scraps from Trump when closer links with the EU would give growth a boost . Given what’s happened over the last few weeks the government has a huge opportunity to sell much closer EU links .
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,284

    US mortgage rate hits 7%


    Brace.

    US mortgage rates are fixed long-term, e.g. 25 to 35 years, with the ability of home owners to end early and refinance at lower rates.

    So it's not like a cliff edge like the UK where all homeowners with a mortgage will have a 2-5 year fix then rotate onto market rates

    In short, very high mortgage rates mostly just means far fewer people move house. And probably puts downward pressure on prices for those that do.

    It won't cause an imminent crunch.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,558
    Trump envoy: We can divide Ukraine like postwar Berlin

    General Keith Kellogg suggests UK and France could lead western zone of control in interview with The Times


    President Trump’s envoy to Ukraine has said the country could be partitioned “almost like Berlin after World War Two” as part of a peace deal.

    General Keith Kellogg, a leading figure in US efforts to end the three-year war, suggested that British and French troops could adopt zones of control in the west of the country as part of a “reassurance force”, with Russia’s army in the occupied east. Between them would be Ukrainian forces and a demilitarised zone.

    Kellogg, 80, said the Anglo-French-led force west of the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine from north to south and runs through Kyiv, would “not be provocative at all” to Moscow. He said Ukraine was a big enough country to accommodate several armies seeking to enforce a ceasefire.

    “You could almost make it look like what happened with Berlin after World War Two, when you had a Russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a US zone,” he said.


    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/keith-kellogg-general-ukraine-envoy-trump-ldjprpzxt
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427
    MattW said:

    Does @Taz make his own Baileys not-Irish Cream? I sometimes get a bottle at Christmas from a T who makes her own; in effective exchange for a bottle of an old style non-alcoholic beverage such as a Ginger drink or a Fruit Vinegar.
    MattW said:

    Does @Taz make his own Baileys not-Irish Cream? I sometimes get a bottle at Christmas from a T who makes her own; in effective exchange for a bottle of an old style non-alcoholic beverage such as a Ginger drink or a Fruit Vinegar.
    Definitely not. We have a bottle in the pantry that has been open two years and about half drunk !

    I did try flavouring vodka with fruit foraged locally. With mixed results.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427

    Net -26 subscribers in 4 hours. With some of them it’s like the scene in Downfall where the Nazis hear that Hilter is dead and immediately shoot themselves

    What’s that as a percentage ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427

    2/3 of the electorate want to restore the death penalty. I'm not sure that reconciles with your view of where the centre of political gravity is.
    The majority view is only important when it’s something someone supports.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,515

    Trump envoy: We can divide Ukraine like postwar Berlin

    General Keith Kellogg suggests UK and France could lead western zone of control in interview with The Times


    President Trump’s envoy to Ukraine has said the country could be partitioned “almost like Berlin after World War Two” as part of a peace deal.

    General Keith Kellogg, a leading figure in US efforts to end the three-year war, suggested that British and French troops could adopt zones of control in the west of the country as part of a “reassurance force”, with Russia’s army in the occupied east. Between them would be Ukrainian forces and a demilitarised zone.

    Kellogg, 80, said the Anglo-French-led force west of the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine from north to south and runs through Kyiv, would “not be provocative at all” to Moscow. He said Ukraine was a big enough country to accommodate several armies seeking to enforce a ceasefire.

    “You could almost make it look like what happened with Berlin after World War Two, when you had a Russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a US zone,” he said.


    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/keith-kellogg-general-ukraine-envoy-trump-ldjprpzxt

    "Dumbass colonists!" :lol:
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,938
    Leon said:

    The lakes of Tien Shan

    Pretty but also a tad touristy. As you can see

    What places are left without tourists?!



    Finding tourists everywhere is partly a state of mind. Lots of Londoners never notice the place is full of them. I live in a county with billions of them all the year round. I, metaphorically and sometimes literally, use the footpaths rather than the roads and trods in place of beaten tracks. England is full of amazing things that by a strange chance no-one ever notices, most of them most of the time can be had without much or any presence of others if you want.

    By the way, in England all town and city centres are uninterruptedly yours between about 9 am and 10 am each morning.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777
    viewcode said:

    Is this your car channel or your new politics channel?
    Car! Politics isn’t live yet. But I questioned the Lord Elon and said he has to go…
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,240
    Ratters said:

    US mortgage rates are fixed long-term, e.g. 25 to 35 years, with the ability of home owners to end early and refinance at lower rates.

    So it's not like a cliff edge like the UK where all homeowners with a mortgage will have a 2-5 year fix then rotate onto market rates

    In short, very high mortgage rates mostly just means far fewer people move house. And probably puts downward pressure on prices for those that do.

    It won't cause an imminent crunch.
    It doesn't take much of a downward shift in house prices to create a reverse wealth effect, mind.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427
    edited April 11
    HYUFD said:

    Yet Electoral Calculus forecasts the Tories will still win most council seats up in May, 548, to 474 Reform, 270 LD, 252 Labour and 77 Other and 27 Green.

    The Tories are forecast to make most losses though, down 872 councillors, followed by Labour down 89 and the Greens down 20 and the LDs down 4.

    Reform projected to make by far the biggest gains with 474 new councillors

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
    Yay, Reform, party on. Reform celebrate.

    https://x.com/casualsdirect/status/1910573527402430836?s=61
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777
    Taz said:

    What’s that as a percentage ?
    0.19%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,240
    HYUFD said:

    2/3 certainly don't want to rejoin the EU with the Euro etc beyond most LD and Green voters, at most a UK majority would be for rejoining EFTA now with the exception of most Reform voters
    Can't we be like Monaco, and be in the Euro and not in the EU?
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 597
    HYUFD said:

    2/3 certainly don't want to rejoin the EU with the Euro etc beyond LD and Green voters, at most a UK majority would be for rejoining EFTA now
    YouGov 13-14.3.25 Join/Stay Out 61 39

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-tariffs-brexit-starmer-trade-war-b2725289.html


    https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/when-it-comes-to-britains-relationship-with-the-european-union-to-what-extent-would-you-support-or-oppose-britain-rejoining-the-customs-union/


    https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/when-it-comes-to-britains-relationship-with-the-eu-to-what-extent-would-you-support-or-oppose-britain-joining-the-single-market/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,819
    Taz said:

    The majority view is only important when it’s something someone supports.
    2/3 is of course a completely made up statistic. The most recent survey, taken days after the sentencing of Axel Rudakabana, had it rising from 50-55% for “the most serious terrorism offences”.

    Then ask the same group of people if they think Lucy Letby should have been killed by the state.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,819

    YouGov 13-14.3.25 Join/Stay Out 61 39

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/trump-tariffs-brexit-starmer-trade-war-b2725289.html


    https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/when-it-comes-to-britains-relationship-with-the-european-union-to-what-extent-would-you-support-or-oppose-britain-rejoining-the-customs-union/


    https://www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/when-it-comes-to-britains-relationship-with-the-eu-to-what-extent-would-you-support-or-oppose-britain-joining-the-single-market/
    That majority view doesn’t matter because the 61% are all elite metropolitan liberals.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,264

    Net -26 subscribers in 4 hours. With some of them it’s like the scene in Downfall where the Nazis hear that Hilter is dead and immediately shoot themselves

    Sorry to hear that Rochdale. Life can be a bit shit sometimes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,705
    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910745209698189693

    .@PressSec: "All foreign nationals present in the United States longer than 30 days must register with the federal government. Failure to comply with this is a crime punishable by fines, imprisonment, or both... If not, you will be arrested, fined, deported, never to return to our country again."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,705
    TimS said:

    2/3 is of course a completely made up statistic. The most recent survey, taken days after the sentencing of Axel Rudakabana, had it rising from 50-55% for “the most serious terrorism offences”.

    Then ask the same group of people if they think Lucy Letby should have been killed by the state.
    The YouGov tracker is currently 60% support and 31% oppose for cases of multiple murder.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-the-death-penalty-be-reintroduced-for-cases-of-multiple-murder
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427
    Whitehouse in listening mode on China and Tariffs and Trump interested in growth agenda - insiders. Fears of stagflation persist.

    Hopefully this next week will be less insane

    https://x.com/cgasparino/status/1910747967595634751?s=61
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427

    0.19%
    That’s surely insignificant. Plus you must have some regular churn anyway ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,264
    Sat listening to a compilation of Wagner instrumental music. He may have been an utter arse but what sublime music.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,427
    Watching the Masters. When does Trump turn up? Does he only have to play the last day - a bye until then?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,427
    Taz said:

    Whitehouse in listening mode on China and Tariffs and Trump interested in growth agenda - insiders. Fears of stagflation persist.

    Hopefully this next week will be less insane

    https://x.com/cgasparino/status/1910747967595634751?s=61

    Will Trump meet Xi? That's the one to watch.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 855
    edited April 11

    Net -26 subscribers in 4 hours. With some of them it’s like the scene in Downfall where the Nazis hear that Hilter is dead and immediately shoot themselves

    I see one has served divorce papers :D

    (Still really rather liking the Model Y Performance I got Mrs Saurus as our family car the other week; fwiw reaction from neighbours/strangers in as much as any give a stuff has been to want a go. Although I made my mum ill with 0-60 which is odd when she was a biker in her yoof)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910745209698189693

    .@PressSec: "All foreign nationals present in the United States longer than 30 days must register with the federal government. Failure to comply with this is a crime punishable by fines, imprisonment, or both... If not, you will be arrested, fined, deported, never to return to our country again."

    Will people have to have stamps on their clothing so it’s easier to be identified . Will they be sticking this in their holiday ads ?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,652
    rcs1000 said:

    Can't we be like Monaco, and be in the Euro and not in the EU?
    Also Kosovo and Montenegro.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044
    Taz said:

    Whitehouse in listening mode on China and Tariffs and Trump interested in growth agenda - insiders. Fears of stagflation persist.

    Hopefully this next week will be less insane

    https://x.com/cgasparino/status/1910747967595634751?s=61

    You mean Trump realizes it’s a cluster fxck and is now desperate for an off-ramp . I hope ping ping tells him to go fxck himself .
  • https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910745209698189693

    .@PressSec: "All foreign nationals present in the United States longer than 30 days must register with the federal government. Failure to comply with this is a crime punishable by fines, imprisonment, or both... If not, you will be arrested, fined, deported, never to return to our country again."

    Any non-US citizen staying in the US should get the hell out right away. It's very obvious where this is going.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777

    I see one has served divorce papers :D

    (Still really rather liking the Model Y Performance I got Mrs Saurus as our family car the other week; fwiw reaction from neighbours/strangers in as much as any give a stuff has been to want a go. Although I made my mum ill with 0-60 which is odd when she was a biker in her yoof)
    I complain about what I call the nuclear arms race of power outputs. Previously unheard of levels of power pit on family cars.

    And then I test cars with less power and soft suspension. And want the power back again. I only have the AWD with the acceleration boost. That’s already utterly crazy. Have you driven a 3 performs? Crackers
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,139
    edited April 11
    ...
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427
    nico67 said:

    You mean Trump realizes it’s a cluster fxck and is now desperate for an off-ramp . I hope ping ping tells him to go fxck himself .
    Ping Ping, FFS 🙄
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,602

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910745209698189693

    .@PressSec: "All foreign nationals present in the United States longer than 30 days must register with the federal government. Failure to comply with this is a crime punishable by fines, imprisonment, or both... If not, you will be arrested, fined, deported, never to return to our country again."

    The cut at the start is making me suspicious. But all foreign nationals?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,587
    eek said:

    That means a 100% chance of a US recession, unless its fixed rapidly...
    Short of a recount and Harris becoming President, that's not happening, is it?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,427
    If Reform win control of the councils they’re predicted to then it’s a different ball game for them.

    They will have records to defend. It won’t just be about people online with pink hair, nose rings and they/them pronouns screaming fascist, like Rik from The Young Ones. They will have a record of either delivery or non delivery going into 2029. It will be fascinating to see if they can hold together as groups on these councils or not and the MSM will be all over them.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,819
    edited April 11

    The YouGov tracker is currently 60% support and 31% oppose for cases of multiple murder.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/should-the-death-penalty-be-reintroduced-for-cases-of-multiple-murder
    So not only have you cherrypicked the highest score for any of the questions (higher than for child murder, police murder, terrorism), for the pollster with the highest death penalty scores, but even that one at its recent peak is some way off 2/3.

    Do you want to bring back the death penalty? If so, is there a particular reason you trust the state to get it right every time?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910745209698189693

    .@PressSec: "All foreign nationals present in the United States longer than 30 days must register with the federal government. Failure to comply with this is a crime punishable by fines, imprisonment, or both... If not, you will be arrested, fined, deported, never to return to our country again."

    You’re a fan of these wankers, aren’t you ?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044

    As I said earlier, @Leon is desperate to go to a place with no tourists.

    The USA is wide open for him now.
    Why would anyone risk going there now ? If the immigration official is just in a bad mood you could end up detained and sent to a detention centre.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440

    Trump envoy: We can divide Ukraine like postwar Berlin

    General Keith Kellogg suggests UK and France could lead western zone of control in interview with The Times


    President Trump’s envoy to Ukraine has said the country could be partitioned “almost like Berlin after World War Two” as part of a peace deal.

    General Keith Kellogg, a leading figure in US efforts to end the three-year war, suggested that British and French troops could adopt zones of control in the west of the country as part of a “reassurance force”, with Russia’s army in the occupied east. Between them would be Ukrainian forces and a demilitarised zone.

    Kellogg, 80, said the Anglo-French-led force west of the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine from north to south and runs through Kyiv, would “not be provocative at all” to Moscow. He said Ukraine was a big enough country to accommodate several armies seeking to enforce a ceasefire.

    “You could almost make it look like what happened with Berlin after World War Two, when you had a Russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a US zone,” he said.


    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/keith-kellogg-general-ukraine-envoy-trump-ldjprpzxt

    A polite ‘eff off is in order to the octogenarian.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,819

    Any non-US citizen staying in the US should get the hell out right away. It's very obvious where this is going.
    The main target at the moment seems to be people on long term visas and green cards. If we start to get stories about tourists or short term business visitors then that’s when I think the real chilling of demand will happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,406
    Taz said:

    If Reform win control of the councils they’re predicted to then it’s a different ball game for them.

    They will have records to defend. It won’t just be about people online with pink hair, nose rings and they/them pronouns screaming fascist, like Rik from The Young Ones. They will have a record of either delivery or non delivery going into 2029. It will be fascinating to see if they can hold together as groups on these councils or not and the MSM will be all over them.

    They are also possibly, if they win, going to take over a load of councils just as a massive council re-org goes ahead with district councils being scrapped and bigger councils taking over others etc etc.

    Now, it is just possible this will go smoothly with every council tax payer and voter happy as a bunny in spring but colour me sceptical...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,139
    J Michael Straczynski has a Bluesky

    https://bsky.app/profile/straczynski.bsky.social
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,705
    ohnotnow said:

    The cut at the start is making me suspicious. But all foreign nationals?
    In theory, compulsory registration applies in lots of European countries too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,240

    https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/1910745209698189693

    .@PressSec: "All foreign nationals present in the United States longer than 30 days must register with the federal government. Failure to comply with this is a crime punishable by fines, imprisonment, or both... If not, you will be arrested, fined, deported, never to return to our country again."

    As a foreign national in the US, I'm there on an O1 visa: does that count as registration? And am I supposed to keep registering as I enter and exit the US?

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044
    TimS said:

    So not only have you cherrypicked the highest score for any of the questions, for the pollster with the highest death penalty scores, but even that one at its recent peak is some way off 2/3.

    Do you want to bring back the death penalty? If so, is there a particular reason you trust the state to get it right every time?
    The USA have executed people later found to have been innocent . The death penalty lobby ignore this.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,602

    In theory, compulsory registration applies in lots of European countries too.
    Asking for a friend - but if you'd been invited to give a talk at a US conference, filled in the paperwork, had appropriate visa's etc, you'd need to additionally do this too? Or face jail-time? Because you missed a tweet?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,044

    In theory, compulsory registration applies in lots of European countries too.
    Please stop with this false equivalence.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,819
    Interesting how of risk perception of counties varies.

    There are lots of places where rates of crime and violence are very high, and that puts off visitors, but in reality their personal risk is no higher than the average resident of that country. If they’re a victim, it’s by happenstance. In fact in most cases they are less at risk than locals, because they’ll stick to tourist areas.

    Then there are places where being a foreigner positively increases your risk because you become a valuable target: politically (Iran, Russia, Afghanistan etc) or for criminality (parts of Mexico for example, or Mauritania). I think those are the more offputting ones.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,705
    ohnotnow said:

    Asking for a friend - but if you'd been invited to give a talk at a US conference, filled in the paperwork, had appropriate visa's etc, you'd need to additionally do this too? Or face jail-time? Because you missed a tweet?
    This is what it refers to:

    https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/04/11/secretary-noem-reminds-foreign-nationals-register-or-face-legal-penalties
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,264
    nico67 said:

    Why would anyone risk going there now ? If the immigration official is just in a bad mood you could end up detained and sent to a detention centre.
    Was talking to my electrician today - he's off on a two-week drive with his along the old Route 66 with in May. I'm rather envious tbh, it's a trip I'd love to do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440
    rcs1000 said:

    As a foreign national in the US, I'm there on an O1 visa: does that count as registration? And am I supposed to keep registering as I enter and exit the US?

    I’d stay away from that tattoo parlour,
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,819
    We discussed the true meaning of Ratnering the other day. I tend to the definition of this as something specific and similar to what Gerald did. Not just basic brand damaging behaviour.

    US immigration discourse at the moment is classic Ratnering. It’s saying to potential tourists, business visitors or skilled workers: “no, you’re not welcome. We intend to make life difficult for you”.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,652

    In theory, compulsory registration applies in lots of European countries too.
    Even under freedom of movement, in fact.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,602

    This is what it refers to:

    https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/04/11/secretary-noem-reminds-foreign-nationals-register-or-face-legal-penalties
    "President Trump and I have a clear message for those in our country illegally: leave now. If you leave now, you may have the opportunity to return and enjoy our freedom and live the American dream,” said Secretary Noem. “The Trump administration will enforce all our immigration laws—we will not pick and choose which laws we will enforce. We must know who is in our country for the safety and security of our homeland and all Americans."

    So if I've entered legally - I don't need to concern myself with this?
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