Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

It’s grim up North for Labour and the South isn’t any better – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,339
    Nigelb said:

    Why would you spend a fortune to attend college in the US, with the risk if random deportation ?

    Over 650 (and rising) known cases so far. Most have nothing to do with advocacy. The admin seems to be engaged in a breakneck effort to kick out every foreign student who has had even the most minor interaction with the police possible, including for TRAFFIC CITATIONS and JAYWALKING tickets
    https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1910684238283747623

    Reported numbers still rising.

    one of the most awful examples is a woman who was arrested for breaking the nose of a guy who was trying to rape her. the cops said she was obviously the victim, she was never charged, but because she has the arrest on her record she’s being deported
    https://x.com/ArmandDoma/status/1910746878167441695

    IMV this bodes very poorly for American democracy. Trump, his regime (*) and their supporters think that they are the 'good' guys, and their opponents (who are not just Dems, but anyone not fully on board the Trump Train) are not just bad, but evil.

    This means, in what passes for their brains, that the Dems will perform *worse* actions than these. And since none of them want to get sent to awful jails abroad without any trial, it is imperative that they never lose power.

    So maintaining power and control over the US government becomes not just a financial grift, but a matter of survival. It's unlikely the Dems will ever do that sort of rubbish, but it's what the MAGA cultists will believe.

    (*) I think it's okay to refer to this American government as a 'regime'.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    eek said:

    How stupid is Trump and his advisors?

    You don’t insult China and think they will come back - they will accept any pain inflicted and plan retaliation (the tariff rates aren’t Trump’s issue here, remember who owns Government bonds).

    What is Ukraine getting from. This deal. Given that it’s less than zero why would they accept when the EU is willing to continue to support them.

    The irony here is that Trump has screwed up the price of oil - so one of the few things propping up the Russian economy (selling oil cheap to customers willing to sup with the devil) is no currently not possible
    Trump has also, as so often, screwed himself by overreach.

    Isn't his alleged approach to start from something hysterical and moderate back to what he actually wants, rather then even madder than before?

    He's the USS Tang with her last torpedo.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    MattW said:

    Trump has also, as so often, screwed himself by overreach.

    Isn't his alleged approach to start from something hysterical and moderate back to what he actually wants, rather then even madder than before?

    He's the USS Tang with her last torpedo.
    His method may work with people who need to work with him but it also risks just annoying people to the extend they tell him to f*** off immediately
    College said:

    "We're the piggy bank" and "I'm the chosen one" for taking on China (Trump 2019):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzlxrPC_E_U
    Rereading that the US is the piggy bank but what happens when the US keeps trying to borrow from the piggy bank while China stops adding money to it in return for IOUs.

    That’s a great unknown which I think we are slowly finding out
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    edited April 12
    Sweet holy Jesus in Speedos, Kazakhstan is a bleak, barren, fucked up, god forsaken shit-hole of shit-holes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    Leon said:

    Sweet holy Jesus in Speedos, Kazakhstan is a bleak, barren, fucked up, god forsaken shit-hole of shit-holes

    Is that a comment on Tien Shan swimming pool?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194
    Cicero said:

    Gove was and is a very powerful journalist. His peccadillos are well known but not generally reported. He "has" plenty on other journalists and former political colleagues. He is also "close" to his proprietor, Murdoch.
    "Thanks for the peerage, Rishi, it came out of the blue".
    This is not the way our Parliamentarians should get their jobs.
    Yet we point the finger at how American government works.

    Get rid of the Lords. We don't need it.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    Foxy said:

    Yet we point the finger at how American government works.

    Get rid of the Lords. We don't need it.
    We need something to refine the half baked laws that often end up being voted through in the House of Commons.

    What that is I don’t know but we need something that can spend time sanity checking the detail before it becomes law.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,339
    Foxy said:

    Yet we point the finger at how American government works.

    Get rid of the Lords. We don't need it.
    I utterly disagree. The Lords fulfil a useful role, and the idea that the government gets all its legislation right, 100% of the time, is an odd one.

    That doesn't mean we don't reform the way the reforming chamber works; but getting rid of it altogether would be dangerous.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,339
    Leon said:

    Sweet holy Jesus in Speedos, Kazakhstan is a bleak, barren, fucked up, god forsaken shit-hole of shit-holes

    Be more positive: it'll improve once you leave. ;)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,586
    eek said:

    We need something to refine the half baked laws that often end up being voted through in the House of Commons.

    What that is I don’t know but we need something that can spend time sanity checking the detail before it becomes law.
    A elected Senate with 1910 House of Lords powers, which is what Australia has
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,474
    Good morning, everyone.

    For those wondering, under EHV (Enormo-haddock Voting), the upper chamber will be inhabited by the Lords Piscine.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487
    Nigelb said:

    Reparations.
    In return for the US supporting the surrender of territory to Russia.

    "Repay" isn't the right word, as that aid wasn't a loan.

    New terms of the minerals deal:
    ▪️Ukraine must repay the US billions in military and financial aid it received after Russia’s major invasion three years ago;
    ▪️Ukraine must pay half of its profits from natural resource development to a fund controlled by the US;
    ▪️The US demands that all profits from the fund be taken away until Ukraine returns all aid it received during the war + 4% per annum;
    ▪️No word on security guarantees for Ukraine...

    https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1910726498400477425

    And, when the Ukrainians tell him to do one, what leverage does Trump have?

    He’s a paper tiger.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    Interesting detail on the Supreme Court El Salvador ruling, which froze the order for Trump to bring back the man he had deported with no evidence and no due process, in violation of a Court Order.

    The Court split Five Men (supported that the man should be left in the El Salvador prison whilst they thought about it) vs Four Women.

    That's interesting because there are usually one or two women in the Maga wing of the Court; one totally down the rabbit hole, one sometimes.

    https://youtu.be/ryxRgQWuUFU?t=1448
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,474
    Sean_F said:

    And, when the Ukrainians tell him to do one, what leverage does Trump have?

    He’s a paper tiger.

    Intelligence sharing, the lack of which earlier really seemed to help Russia in Kursk.

    American support has declined substantially but it does still exist, emphasising the importance of self-reliance and a diverse array of allies. I think that's why Starmer's renationalisation of British Steel will enjoy wide support.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    MattW said:

    Interesting detail on the Supreme Court El Salvador ruling, which froze the order for Trump to bring back the man he had deported with no evidence and no due process, in violation of a Court Order.

    The Court split Five Men (supported that the man should be left in the El Salvador prison whilst they thought about it) vs Four Women.

    That's interesting because there are usually one or two women in the Maga wing of the Court; one totally down the rabbit hole, one sometimes.

    https://youtu.be/ryxRgQWuUFU?t=1448

    Really? Of the four women serving, two were appointed by Obama and one by Biden. The fourth is Amy Coney Barrett, who was appointed by Trump but has usually shown that she's quite independently minded.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,586
    rcs1000 said:

    Many people file US tax returns, not all of them are even US residents (legal or otherwise).
    If not resident, they are presumably US citizens though.

    I would assume the illegal immigrants working in the UK are doing so in a way that means the HMRC doesn't know about them.

    How can you be an illegal immigrant and work "legally"? The IRS should know who they are and shop them to the relevant authorities
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 754
    edited April 12

    Trump envoy: We can divide Ukraine like postwar Berlin

    General Keith Kellogg suggests UK and France could lead western zone of control in interview with The Times


    President Trump’s envoy to Ukraine has said the country could be partitioned “almost like Berlin after World War Two” as part of a peace deal.

    General Keith Kellogg, a leading figure in US efforts to end the three-year war, suggested that British and French troops could adopt zones of control in the west of the country as part of a “reassurance force”, with Russia’s army in the occupied east. Between them would be Ukrainian forces and a demilitarised zone.

    Kellogg, 80, said the Anglo-French-led force west of the Dnipro river, which bisects Ukraine from north to south and runs through Kyiv, would “not be provocative at all” to Moscow. He said Ukraine was a big enough country to accommodate several armies seeking to enforce a ceasefire.

    “You could almost make it look like what happened with Berlin after World War Two, when you had a Russian zone, a French zone, and a British zone, a US zone,” he said.


    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/keith-kellogg-general-ukraine-envoy-trump-ldjprpzxt

    What? We are going to reward the Russian invaders by giving them a sector of Kyiv??? Ukraine is not the agressor here....

    By all means use British & French (& Turkish) boots on the ground to help stabilise the peace . But there needs to be a dmz on both sides of the eventual ceasefire line. And the latest Russian condition for a ceasefire (handing over the 4 claimed provinces in entirety) should be dismissed with maximum contempt.

    Trump is just a Russian puppet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,495
    edited April 12
    Penddu2 said:

    What? We are going to reward the Russian invaders by giving them a sector of Kyiv??? Ukraine is not the agressor here....

    By all means use British & French (& Turkish) boots on the ground to help stabilise the peace . But there needs to be a dmz on both sides of the eventual ceasefire line. And the latest Russian condition for a ceasefire (handing over the 4 claimed provinces in entirety) should be dismissed with maximum contempt.

    Trump is just a Russian puppet.
    More like a Russian sex doll.

    Grossly over-inflated, used to allow small ugly men to have sex,* and although you think there's something inside there's really nothing there.

    *This is an awesomely complex and subtle commentary on Lavrov and Putin's size, performance and their predilection for fucking everything around them.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,302
    Sean_F said:

    And, when the Ukrainians tell him to do one, what leverage does Trump have?

    He’s a paper tiger.

    He could get the CIA to stage a coup and replace Green T-Shirt with somebody who'll do what he's told. A scenario not without precedence.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    Penddu2 said:

    What? We are going to reward the Russian invaders by giving them a sector of Kyiv??? Ukraine is not the agressor here....

    By all means use British & French (& Turkish) boots on the ground to help stabilise the peace . But there needs to be a dmz on both sides of the eventual ceasefire line. And the latest Russian condition for a ceasefire (handing over the 4 claimed provinces in entirety) should be dismissed with maximum contempt.

    Trump is just a Russian puppet.
    Let’s go back to this from earlier in the week.

    No of possibilities with Trump.
    1. Hes a russian asset bent on destroying the united states.
    2. Its all about the grift hence the constant pumping and crashing of markets to enrich himself.
    3. Hes a genuine moron.

    He’s 3 and 1 with 2 as the reward
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,922
    Penddu2 said:

    What? We are going to reward the Russian invaders by giving them a sector of Kyiv??? Ukraine is not the agressor here....

    By all means use British & French (& Turkish) boots on the ground to help stabilise the peace . But there needs to be a dmz on both sides of the eventual ceasefire line. And the latest Russian condition for a ceasefire (handing over the 4 claimed provinces in entirety) should be dismissed with maximum contempt.

    Trump is just a Russian puppet.
    I’m not yet convinced the UK and EU have the final courage and wherewithal to do what it takes (and what’s within their control) to help Ukraine wean itself off US support.

    A economic and trade rapprochement with China that comes with strings on limiting Chinese military support to Russia might have a chance, but would require careful counting of fingers.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    My latest comment on a few points on my favourite Trumpist channel. :smile:

    I'm always interested to see defences of the Trump line.

    Perhaps most revealing is Trump's willingness entirely to ignore law when legal processes are available to achieve his objective. That is overreach, and imo will be his downfall. And then he covers his backside with a blizzard of obfuscation and rhetoric.

    Who are these allies whom Mr Trump is going to force to choose the USA or China? Trump has tried to mug them all, and they are wary. It's transactional, and since the USA no longer places any weight on treaties or agreements or trust, cooperation is either a) where there is no option or b) where there is guaranteed leverage or c) where the USA gets a major benefit.

    Trump's head is stuck in about 1950, and the USA is not predominant as he thinks. His USA vs China framing does not reflect reality, and will be rejected. I expect the developed democracies (which no longer include the USA) to move over time to a newer structure, and the world will have more poles than USA vs China. The USA will be cooperated with, but has proven that it cannot be trusted.

    On tariffs, China is likely to do nothing - the USA cannot make them take action. All they need to do is sit on their hands and wait for goods in the USA to double in price, or simply to allow their exports to be stopped as being unlikely to sell.

    In Trump vs China, Trump holds a pair of 2s and a pair of 3s, which he has overplayed, whilst China has the strong hand. When iPhones are $2200 or run out, he will make a snuffling noise, and crawl back under his stone. Trump has no leverage.

    The problem here is that his dream of "Made in the USA" is so less cost-efficient that sales will collapse.

    Overall it still seems to me to be an incredible exhibition of a country burning itself down. I remain flabbergasted.

    All the best until next week, and we'll see what happens at the circus.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,922
    Dura_Ace said:

    He could get the CIA to stage a coup and replace Green T-Shirt with somebody who'll do what he's told. A scenario not without precedence.
    Dura deciding to be our Saturday morning visitor this week. Cut out the middleman.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,394
    Dura_Ace said:

    He could get the CIA to stage a coup and replace Green T-Shirt with somebody who'll do what he's told. A scenario not without precedence.
    The Russians have been trying to do that since day one. Not gone well for them.

    If Trump tries this then the break between the Democracies and America will be swift and final.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194
    TimS said:

    I’m not yet convinced the UK and EU have the final courage and wherewithal to do what it takes (and what’s within their control) to help Ukraine wean itself off US support.

    A economic and trade rapprochement with China that comes with strings on limiting Chinese military support to Russia might have a chance, but would require careful counting of fingers.
    There are slightly odd reports emerging of Chinese being captured by the Ukranians these last few weeks.

    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lmcm3knykk2h

    China should be diplomatically be asked to withdraw support from Russia as part and parcel of keeping good trade relations with the EU and RoW.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    edited April 12

    If not resident, they are presumably US citizens though.

    I would assume the illegal immigrants working in the UK are doing so in a way that means the HMRC doesn't know about them.

    How can you be an illegal immigrant and work "legally"? The IRS should know who they are and shop them to the relevant authorities
    There are an awful lot of situations in the US and UK where ID is provided for illegal immigrants for a fee.

    Imagine a deliveroo “driver” who lends his account to someone else and passes 80% of the money to the person who does the work.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,922
    Foxy said:

    There are slightly odd reports emerging of Chinese being captured by the Ukranians these last few weeks.

    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lmcm3knykk2h

    China should be diplomatically be asked to withdraw support from Russia as part and parcel of keeping good trade relations with the EU and RoW.

    Exactly. I expect those Chinese prisoners are mercenaries, the question is how much tacit CCP support they have.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    Foxy said:

    There are slightly odd reports emerging of Chinese being captured by the Ukranians these last few weeks.

    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lmcm3knykk2h

    China should be diplomatically be asked to withdraw support from Russia as part and parcel of keeping good trade relations with the EU and RoW.

    It’s odd simply because all sides have the odd mercenary and I suspect those Chinese soldiers are thee trying to earn a few quid and Ukraine have tried to big it up for obvious “reasons”.

    Reality is that as that post says the quid pro quo for the EU siding with China on trade may be some help in some form from China regarding Ukraine. It’s also the sort of easy concession that China may make to strike that trade deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194
    edited April 12
    Cicero said:

    The Russians have been trying to do that since day one. Not gone well for them.

    If Trump tries this then the break between the Democracies and America will be swift and final.
    The CIA have staged coups before to replace leaders they dislike, but it hasn't always gone as planned, and does require considerable support from local military or sectors of society. It's hard to see a Pro-Putin or even Pro-Trump candidate getting any degree of support in Ukraine. I am sure that most Ukranians are war weary, but they don't want a puppet regime either.

    Just as American Exceptionalism has caused Trump and MAGA to blunder into a weak position over trade, the same exceptionality causes them to over estimate their ability in foreign affairs.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,411

    IMV this bodes very poorly for American democracy. Trump, his regime (*) and their supporters think that they are the 'good' guys, and their opponents (who are not just Dems, but anyone not fully on board the Trump Train) are not just bad, but evil.

    This means, in what passes for their brains, that the Dems will perform *worse* actions than these. And since none of them want to get sent to awful jails abroad without any trial, it is imperative that they never lose power.

    So maintaining power and control over the US government becomes not just a financial grift, but a matter of survival. It's unlikely the Dems will ever do that sort of rubbish, but it's what the MAGA cultists will believe.

    (*) I think it's okay to refer to this American government as a 'regime'.
    Foreign students who are being deported to their home country may turn out to be the lucky ones. If things deteriorate at the present rate, anybody might end up deported to a foreign jail.

    Good morning, everybody.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194
    TimS said:

    Exactly. I expect those Chinese prisoners are mercenaries, the question is how much tacit CCP support they have.
    I don't think they could be there without tacit PRC support. Perhaps they were there to gather intelligence on what is working on the battlefield. All militaries must be desperate to understand what works and what doesn't. Certain Western technology seems to have rather flopped.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    Foxy said:

    I don't think they could be there without tacit PRC support. Perhaps they were there to gather intelligence on what is working on the battlefield. All militaries must be desperate to understand what works and what doesn't. Certain Western technology seems to have rather flopped.
    Except I don’t think there weee in a position that implies tacit support. If they wee they would be officers of some form while they appear to be poorly trained general soldiers
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194
    eek said:

    We need something to refine the half baked laws that often end up being voted through in the House of Commons.

    What that is I don’t know but we need something that can spend time sanity checking the detail before it becomes law.
    I don't think any second chamber should be used as a cop out.

    Far better that the Commons stops passing badly drafted laws, and the government stops whipping them through. How can the Commons improve if they do not have to sort out their own mess?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,339
    Foxy said:

    I don't think any second chamber should be used as a cop out.

    Far better that the Commons stops passing badly drafted laws, and the government stops whipping them through. How can the Commons improve if they do not have to sort out their own mess?
    I think that's a very naive and unrealistic view given some of the numpties elected to parliament, especially those who just tow the party line.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    Foxy said:

    The CIA have staged coups before to replace leaders they dislike, but it hasn't always gone as planned, and does require considerable support from local military or sectors of society. It's hard to see a Pro-Putin or even Pro-Trump candidate getting any degree of support in Ukraine. I am sure that most Ukranians are war weary, but they don't want a puppet regime either.

    Just as American Exceptionalism has caused Trump and MAGA to blunder into a weak position over trade, the same exceptionality causes them to over estimate their ability in foreign affairs.
    Bay of Pigs !
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 928

    BBC:

    "Twelve men and a woman have been arrested on suspicion of alleged historical child sexual exploitation offences.

    West Yorkshire Police said the men, aged between 42 and 59, and a 60-year-old woman were arrested at a series of addresses in Bradford in March and April.

    The force said the alleged offences were said to have been committed against a single victim between 2000 and 2005 when she was aged between 13 and 17."

    It never ends,.

    It never will, all that can be done is to reduce opportunity, increase recognition. reporting and law enforcement. The funding cuts to the latter have drastically reduced the effectiveness of the latter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,194

    I think that's a very naive and unrealistic view given some of the numpties elected to parliament, especially those who just tow the party line.
    I think the revising should be done in HoC committee before coming to a final vote.

    This provides a useful role for the large numbers of backbenchers on both sides of the house, and could incorporate HoC specialist staff with expertise on Constitutional law and legal drafting to advise the committees.

    By and large we have turned backbenchers into glorified social workers and lobbyists for vested interests. Getting them to do their day jobs properly is far more useful
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,635

    NEW THREAD

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,339
    Foxy said:

    I think the revising should be done in HoC committee before coming to a final vote.

    This provides a useful role for the large numbers of backbenchers on both sides of the house, and could incorporate HoC specialist staff with expertise on Constitutional law and legal drafting to advise the committees.

    By and large we have turned backbenchers into glorified social workers and lobbyists for vested interests. Getting them to do their day jobs properly is far more useful
    That will never happen in a system that is heavily whipped. It is naive to think otherwise; party will always come first.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,263
    Nigelb said:

    German to set up 5,000 strong armoured brigade in Lithuania for first (permanently based) foreign deployment.
    https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1910666682542018922

    Latvian SS?

    Where is Tim?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    Dopermean said:

    It never will, all that can be done is to reduce opportunity, increase recognition. reporting and law enforcement. The funding cuts to the latter have drastically reduced the effectiveness of the latter.
    That's a poor characterisation. Funding was cut by ~20% 2010-2016 by Osborne and Cameron, but has been increased back in years since then. In the first period the force was pithed of around 15% of officers, many of them the core, experienced cadre I think.

    It will take years to recover; however funding in real terms has built since 2018. I think the difference wrt the Starmer Govt is that we can expect them to plan further than the end of their nose, rather than run in headless chicken mode.

    Various components of police funding 2015-2025 at 2025 prices.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-funding-for-england-and-wales-2015-to-2025/police-funding-for-england-and-wales-2015-to-2025
This discussion has been closed.