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Yesterday, February 28, 2025, a date which will live in infamy – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Does anyone seriously believe that Trump is a Russian agent? Google Agent Krasnov and let us know.
    It's like the lab leak theory - unlikely we will know either way but circumstantial evidence is strongly supportive and it's the most plausible explanation.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    edited March 1
    Barnesian said:

    I've donated.

    https://war.ukraine.ua/donate/
    Yes, I saw. I do hope that your money is spent broadly as you envisage, though it's a hope rather than a belief.

    Trump will be glad you donated - he's in favour of every other country's money being used but the US's.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,529

    Just seen in the football the red card for Millwall's keeper, that has to be the most reckless challenge I've ever seen in football. Studs up into the head, that couldn't just end someone's career but someone's life too.

    I get Millwall fans love their reputation of "no one likes us, we don't care" but for them to be chanting "let him die" when a player with a head injury is getting treatment is truly disgusting.

    What's more shocking though is the FA saying that "let him die" chants aren't a breach of their regulations, but they're going to be investigating homophobic chants aimed at another player as they are. If that's the case, perhaps your regulations are a bit broken.

    Oh, I don't think this one will ever be beaten, Bart:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGq7VcaHoqo

    And incredible as it may seem, the referee didn't even give a foul.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275

    It's like the lab leak theory - unlikely we will know either way but circumstantial evidence is strongly supportive and it's the most plausible explanation.
    If Trump was a Russian agent he wouldn't have told Europe to increase defence spending and stop depending on Russian energy.

    Rather Trump is self-obsessed and self-pitying and thinks he has a score to settle with a lot of people.

    Including those European countries who laughed at his advice and then cheered his defeat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214

    There is nothing delicate in rejecting a fan boy of Trump and his bully boys

    He demeans our country and should go and live in New York or Moscow
    You’re on form this evening, Big_G.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,677
    edited March 1

    Before 28th February verbal assault on decency by Trump and his bullies

    Let's see how this pans out over the next few weeks

    Voting Reform is voting for Farage and Trump
    The only thing is, I'm not sure most of the people that have switched from CON and LAB to REF will necessarily care about Ukraine and in some cases might even support Russia.

    However, these developments must limit Reforms potential for further growth, at least in the short term?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    Fox News is reporting that protesters have disrupted JD Vance's planned vacation in Vermont following yesterday WH meeting
    https://x.com/AlexandruC4/status/1895880706993348775

    How disrespectful..
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,292
    Nigelb said:

    I actually read about that before the meeting.
    Apparently AP and Reuters were excluded.
    A couple of weeks ago and in favour of Breitbart. The Goebbels school of propaganda lives.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322

    Just seen in the football the red card for Millwall's keeper, that has to be the most reckless challenge I've ever seen in football. Studs up into the head, that couldn't just end someone's career but someone's life too.

    I get Millwall fans love their reputation of "no one likes us, we don't care" but for them to be chanting "let him die" when a player with a head injury is getting treatment is truly disgusting.

    What's more shocking though is the FA saying that "let him die" chants aren't a breach of their regulations, but they're going to be investigating homophobic chants aimed at another player as they are. If that's the case, perhaps your regulations are a bit broken.

    Compare and contrast to Swindon’s fans response to Tyrone Williams of Chesterfield’s serious injury last week. Genuine concern and respect between two clubs and sets of fans.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,136

    Oh, I don't think this one will ever be beaten, Bart:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGq7VcaHoqo

    And incredible as it may seem, the referee didn't even give a foul.
    Have you seen today's? It was worse than that. Jumped up and feet into the head, up high.

    And also incredible, the referee didn't even give a foul today either. It was VAR that said go to the monitor and then it became a red card, wasn't even a foul without VAR.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    If Trump was a Russian agent he wouldn't have told Europe to increase defence spending and stop depending on Russian energy.

    Rather Trump is self-obsessed and self-pitying and thinks he has a score to settle with a lot of people.

    Including those European countries who laughed at his advice and then cheered his defeat.
    There has to be some plausible deniability, stuff that points the other way. But the key decisions he has made - trying to force Ukraine to cede territory, offering no real security guarantees, weakening NATO, telling Europe it's on its own, taking about ending sanctions - have all benefited Russia. Meanwhile, we have the decades-long links to the Russian state and oligarchs, the dodgy Russian money, the trip to Moscow, the weird subservience to Putin right down to cowed body language, and the relentless parotting of Kremlin talking points.
  • Labour's polling continuing to hold up well.

    Labour wins the next election on current trends IMHO. This is peak Reform.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    "We run the world. This is America's world. It’s our proxy. It will end when we say it's over," — Fox News host Jesse Watters on Ukraine and President Zelensky.
    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1895762952516735196
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,414

    Compare and contrast to Swindon’s fans response to Tyrone Williams of Chesterfield’s serious injury last week. Genuine concern and respect between two clubs and sets of fans.
    Despite their reputations, I would sooner live in Swindon or Chesterfield, amongst decent people, rather than London, especially SE London.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261

    Despite their reputations, I would sooner live in Swindon or Chesterfield, amongst decent people, rather than London, especially SE London.
    Oi SE London is mint, mate.
    A lot of Millwall's support lives in Kent and Essex anyway.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,421
    What the Millwall keeper did today was bad (in general, keepers get away with a lot, he should get a lengthy ban for this), but it wasn’t as bad as Harold Schumacher.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,677

    Labour's polling continuing to hold up well.

    Labour wins the next election on current trends IMHO. This is peak Reform.

    Well I'm not sure I'd say going from 35% to 25% in six months is "holding up" but we may indeed be at Peak REF...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,525

    Before 28th February verbal assault on decency by Trump and his bullies

    Let's see how this pans out over the next few weeks

    Voting Reform is voting for Farage and Trump
    No, voting for Reform is voting for jobs and hope and a future - that is what an awful lot of people will be thinking.

    Low information low engagement voters who are only vaguely interested in politics and world affairs. The horrors of their own lives count for more and you can’t just dismiss that because of your sensibilities on this issue.

    You’re right of course - voting Farage is voting for Trump and this for Putin. My point is that when you have nothing you don’t care. And follow news sources who openly say the opposite about Farage and Trump…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,278

    Labour's polling continuing to hold up well.

    Labour wins the next election on current trends IMHO. This is peak Reform.

    On the current poll average though it would be a Reform and Tory government, assuming Kemi backed Farage not Starmer.

    Labour would get just 178 seats, even fewer than Corbyn in 2019 or Foot in 1983

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,136
    Just read up on that Schumacher foul, yeah that was worse. The video didn't do it justice. Ouch.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214

    There has to be some plausible deniability, stuff that points the other way. But the key decisions he has made - trying to force Ukraine to cede territory, offering no real security guarantees, weakening NATO, telling Europe it's on its own, taking about ending sanctions - have all benefited Russia. Meanwhile, we have the decades-long links to the Russian state and oligarchs, the dodgy Russian money, the trip to Moscow, the weird subservience to Putin right down to cowed body language, and the relentless parotting of Kremlin talking points.
    There’s also this.
    Otherwise inexplicable.

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions.
    https://x.com/martinmatishak/status/1895565512459108830
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275

    There has to be some plausible deniability, stuff that points the other way. But the key decisions he has made - trying to force Ukraine to cede territory, offering no real security guarantees, weakening NATO, telling Europe it's on its own, taking about ending sanctions - have all benefited Russia. Meanwhile, we have the decades-long links to the Russian state and oligarchs, the dodgy Russian money, the trip to Moscow, the weird subservience to Putin right down to cowed body language, and the relentless parotting of Kremlin talking points.
    Or Trump is just a self-obsessed, rather ignorant, partially demented bitter cry-baby.

    If Trump is some Russian asset then he produced very little for them in his first term.

    So why the change now ? It can be easily explained by his desire for personal revenge against people he thinks have personally wronged him.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636

    Just seen in the football the red card for Millwall's keeper, that has to be the most reckless challenge I've ever seen in football. Studs up into the head, that couldn't just end someone's career but someone's life too.

    I get Millwall fans love their reputation of "no one likes us, we don't care" but for them to be chanting "let him die" when a player with a head injury is getting treatment is truly disgusting.

    What's more shocking though is the FA saying that "let him die" chants aren't a breach of their regulations, but they're going to be investigating homophobic chants aimed at another player as they are. If that's the case, perhaps your regulations are a bit broken.

    Just had a look at it. It's a reckless challenge, certainly, but nit in the top 20 worst tackes I've ever seen. It's nit kike Roy Keane acticely setting out to injure Alf-Inge Haaland.
    Agree abiut the chanting.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    Nigelb said:

    There’s also this.
    Otherwise inexplicable.

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions.
    https://x.com/martinmatishak/status/1895565512459108830
    That is absolutely nuts. Yes, there is undeniably a pattern here.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456

    Oi SE London is mint, mate.
    A lot of Millwall's support lives in Kent and Essex anyway.
    Most live over the far side of the Shooters Hill armistice line.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456

    That is absolutely nuts. Yes, there is undeniably a pattern here.
    This is so difficult. How do you plan for the eventuality that your most powerful ally may have become your most powerful enemy?

    When did this last happen? Stalin after operation Barbarossa?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    geoffw said:

    54% say "don't know", and the ludicrous costs of the "deal" were not mentioned, let alone the spurious connection to far away Mauritius

    Well, that’s democracy for you. You can think other people wrong, because they’re not considering the full facts of the situation or they have been misled. You can try to persuade people. But you also have to acknowledge that, for whatever reason, other people may settle on a different view to you. Maybe after public debate, the demos will swing around to your point of view, and maybe they won’t.

    My point is not to defend or argue against the Chagos deal. It’s to note that rcs1000’s view that no-one likes the Chagos deal, and to use that as an example of democracy failing, is in error. Lots of people, rightly or wrongly, like the deal. I don’t disagree with rcs1000’s broader point, but for democracy to be seen to be working, we need mechanisms by which people can express their views and we need to get out of our own media bubbles.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,169
    Nigelb said:

    "We run the world. This is America's world. It’s our proxy. It will end when we say it's over," — Fox News host Jesse Watters on Ukraine and President Zelensky.
    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1895762952516735196

    They really are quite insane.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,964
    HYUFD said:

    On the current poll average though it would be a Reform and Tory government, assuming Kemi backed Farage not Starmer.

    Labour would get just 178 seats, even fewer than Corbyn in 2019 or Foot in 1983

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

    I think you are relying too much on Electoral Calculus. Their latest MRP adjustment seems very dodgy to me. I'm treating it with a large dose of salt.

    Is there another model that converts shares to seats?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    edited March 1
    TimS said:

    This is so difficult. How do you plan for the eventuality that your most powerful ally may have become your most powerful enemy?

    When did this last happen? Stalin after operation Barbarossa?
    Is there a precedent for the rug pull from a seven decade alliance ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,936

    Well, that’s democracy for you. You can think other people wrong, because they’re not considering the full facts of the situation or they have been misled. You can try to persuade people. But you also have to acknowledge that, for whatever reason, other people may settle on a different view to you. Maybe after public debate, the demos will swing around to your point of view, and maybe they won’t.

    My point is not to defend or argue against the Chagos deal. It’s to note that rcs1000’s view that no-one likes the Chagos deal, and to use that as an example of democracy failing, is in error. Lots of people, rightly or wrongly, like the deal. I don’t disagree with rcs1000’s broader point, but for democracy to be seen to be working, we need mechanisms by which people can express their views and we need to get out of our own media bubbles.
    Okay, my point is the vacuity of this kind of polling
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,155
    https://x.com/peston/status/1895944876040339678

    The prime minister has spoken to President Zelenskyy, and President Trump and President Macron this evening, with the intent of bridging the rift between Zelenskyy and Trump
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    I’m not sure this is sensible, but it’s hard to ignore.

    After yesterday's events in the White House, Haltbakk Bunkers, one of Norway's largest marine fuel companies, appears to have announced that it will no longer refuel American Navy vessels.

    Haltbakk has called on other European companies to refuse service to American forces.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1895896267269808193
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786

    https://x.com/peston/status/1895944876040339678

    The prime minister has spoken to President Zelenskyy, and President Trump and President Macron this evening, with the intent of bridging the rift between Zelenskyy and Trump

    Credit where it is due
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,456
    Nigelb said:

    Is there a precedent for the rug pull from a seven decade alliance ?
    When Constantinople fell to the Saracens, perhaps?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338
    Nigelb said:

    Fox News is reporting that protesters have disrupted JD Vance's planned vacation in Vermont following yesterday WH meeting
    https://x.com/AlexandruC4/status/1895880706993348775

    How disrespectful..

    Positively rude, in fact…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    CatMan said:

    "A baseless conspiracy theory is circulating among pro-Trump social media users alleging that high-profile Democratic figures Antony Blinken, Susan Rice, Victoria Nuland, and Alexander Vindman held a conference call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his flight to Washington.

    The conspiracy theory went viral, with Republicans including US special envoy, Richard Grenell, spreading the baseless claim.

    The claim suggests that they advised him to “stand strong” and be “tough” against president Donald Trump before the confrontation between Zelenskyy, Trump, and vice president JD Vance in the Oval Office took place.

    Worth noting: The initial claim, posted by a pro-Trump author on social media, provided no source or evidence and was later acknowledged by herself as speculation.
    "

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/mar/01/live-european-leaders-rally-behind-zelenskyy-after-trump-vance-clash-updates

    This is how the populist right works. They lie. Some fall for it (as with several regulars on PB).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,829
    Currently the EU has given some loans to Ukraine and used the interest on the Russian assets as collateral. It’s a different matter though if instead of the interest as collateral the assets themselves are used for that purpose . It’s not a 100% clear tonight what the UK government is using. The Ukrainian finance minister just mentioned Russian assets .

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,525
    Nigelb said:

    I’m not sure this is sensible, but it’s hard to ignore.

    After yesterday's events in the White House, Haltbakk Bunkers, one of Norway's largest marine fuel companies, appears to have announced that it will no longer refuel American Navy vessels.

    Haltbakk has called on other European companies to refuse service to American forces.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1895896267269808193

    BDS?
  • Tonight Sir Keir has been at his best. I am deeply proud he is leading this country.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338

    They really are quite insane.
    Nah. It’s just another Russian talking point - denying Ukraine it’s own agency; it’s a pawn of the west
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    Positively rude, in fact…
    Can you imagine what it feels like to be a hillbilly these days. Your brand is ratnered. Hillbillies up and down Appalachia feeling so embarrassed, centuries of careful curation of a public image of backwardness and stupidity take too far by one of their own.

    I guess that it shouldn’t be a surprise as “advanced” suggests progression whereas “Vanced” must mean “backwards”.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,068
    geoffw said:

    Okay, my point is the vacuity of this kind of polling
    OK, sure. I agree there are problems with this sort of polling. So, do you think there is a mechanism between elections “so that politicians get the message they're making a mistake quicker”, as per rcs1000’s suggestion?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,964
    Barnesian said:

    I think you are relying too much on Electoral Calculus. Their latest MRP adjustment seems very dodgy to me. I'm treating it with a large dose of salt.

    Is there another model that converts shares to seats?
    I've found:

    https://www.ewangoodjohn.com/uk
    and
    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament?form=MG0AV3
    It's worth comparing them rather than solely relying on Electoral Calculus.
    It's all a bit of game anyway at this stage.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,402
    edited March 1

    This is how the populist right works. They lie. Some fall for it (as with several regulars on PB).
    That's the charitable view of the populist right (and the populist left is just as bad).

    The uncharitable view has the original source of this garbage being 2000 miles east of here rather than 3000 miles west, and the initial spreaders knowing this full well, and even being paid to do the Russians' dirty work for them.

    We should investigate these people as thoroughly as we used to Russian agents during the Cold War. They are entitled to their opinions, however demented, but they can't be allowed undermine the security of the west by spreading Russian filth.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,155
    edited March 1
    glw said:

    .

    They are never going to cope when China eclipses them, and that will happen, and sooner now due to their actions.
    How will they notice?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    Nigelb said:

    I’m not sure this is sensible, but it’s hard to ignore.

    After yesterday's events in the White House, Haltbakk Bunkers, one of Norway's largest marine fuel companies, appears to have announced that it will no longer refuel American Navy vessels.

    Haltbakk has called on other European companies to refuse service to American forces.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1895896267269808193

    Norway, it is worth noting, is a member of NATO.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    rcs1000 said:

    Norway, it is worth noting, is a member of NATO.
    And home of the Nobel Peace Prize committee.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    rcs1000 said:

    Norway, it is worth noting, is a member of NATO.
    This is, though, a privately owned company.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    OK, sure. I agree there are problems with this sort of polling. So, do you think there is a mechanism between elections “so that politicians get the message they're making a mistake quicker”, as per rcs1000’s suggestion?
    Yes: every week there should be a byelection in a random seat. That means that - over the course of a four year parliament - there are about 220 byelections.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212

    They really are quite insane.
    It may not seem like it now, but there are some worse people than Trump in the GOP. He is scary - but at the end of the day he is an self-centred, self-preserving idiot. There are some far more sinister characters we should really hope don’t follow on from him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    Starmer seems to be trying to find a way for Trump to climb down without being utterly humiliated, as he would be if the Europeans, including the UK, give Ukraine sufficient resources to carry on the war until Russia is exhausted (which I believe to be imminent). If the Europeans do that Trump loses the leverage that he has attempted to deploy so brutally yesterday but let's not pretend that it would be easy for Europe given their own dependency on US logistical capacity.

    Of course, for diplomatic reasons, everyone will need to pretend that this is not a climb down for the US and Trump will have to be allowed to save some face somehow. But if Starmer achieves this he will have more than made up for the months of inaction and ineptitude since the election, he will show himself to be a true leader in difficult times.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,936
    edited March 1

    OK, sure. I agree there are problems with this sort of polling. So, do you think there is a mechanism between elections “so that politicians get the message they're making a mistake quicker”, as per rcs1000’s suggestion?
    iirc he was talking about a stabilising feedback mechanism - that requires them recognising the difference between policy aims and performance and being able to take corrective action. So getting the message is only part of it, but yes, more apt polling would certainly help there

    p.s. meanwhile RCS100 has suggested regular by-elections ... that may help ... or perhaps issues-based referenda ... but let's not get carried away
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,471

    Compare and contrast to Swindon’s fans response to Tyrone Williams of Chesterfield’s serious injury last week. Genuine concern and respect between two clubs and sets of fans.
    The FA, after careful legal advice, ruled that being an actual UN described War Criminal did not breach the FA rules for ownership of a club.

    The FA decided that War Criminals are Fit & Proper to be club owners.

    Why would you expect such an organisation to posses a moral compass?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    Hillbilly Legacy

    How JD Vance emerged as the chief saboteur of the transatlantic alliance
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/jd-vance-volodymyr-zelenskyy
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    In other news, Republicans are running away from their own voters who don't like Elon

    He has fired so many DOJ lawyers they don't have enough to defend all the cases that have been launched against them

    And Macron has floated the idea of a European nuclear shield

    I am not certain Donny boy can keep the show on the road for 4 years...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    geoffw said:

    Okay, my point is the vacuity of this kind of polling
    Don’t back down Geoff, I think you were spot on first time - over 54% don’t know suggests an awful lot of people don’t feel they truly understand it, or feel they do understand it enough to not give a damn.

    It is odd though, considering there has been a lot of frothy hatred of Chagos deal in the dead tree media, and absolutely no one on PB (I’m aware of) defending it, that polling keeps throwing up polls of support for Chagos Deal, and over half merely shrugging not at all worked up. From this same poll “politics” section, Conservatives are against, but only by 37% to 21% with 42% don’t know.

    Before I started looking into it, I would have answered agains the deal, believing I knew enough about it to think it bad for national security and bizarre we are willing to unnecessarily pay so much good money for no good reason. Now I understand Chagos Deal inside out, my answer would still be strongly opposed to it going ahead, though for very different reasoning - my own preferred position (impossible though it is due to our ties to US defence systems) is now identical to the view Lord Dannatt expressed: just gift ownership to the US and India and walk away never to get involved again.

    Gut reaction should be oppose because it don’t make any sense, going from a gut reaction to knowing what it’s really about, should also be strongly oppose, so I don’t understand why polls pick up so much support and so much indifference.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    A rare piece of good news.

    PKK declares ceasefire with Turkey after more than 40 years of conflict
    Kurdish militant group responds to call from its jailed leader, Abdullah Öcalan, to lay down arms
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/01/pkk-declares-ceasefire-with-turkey-after-40-years-kurdish
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    Wow, what do you have to do to get sacked by GBeebies?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,333
    boulay said:

    And home of the Nobel Peace Prize committee.
    What price Zelensky for the Next peace prize? Top Trump trolling if so.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Tonight Sir Keir has been at his best. I am deeply proud he is leading this country.

    🤮.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,136
    Scott_xP said:

    Wow, what do you have to do to get sacked by GBeebies?

    Have integrity?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,936

    Don’t back down Geoff, I think you were spot on first time - over 54% don’t know suggests an awful lot of people don’t feel they truly understand it, or feel they do understand it enough to not give a damn.

    It is odd though, considering there has been a lot of frothy hatred of Chagos deal in the dead tree media, and absolutely no one on PB (I’m aware of) defending it, that polling keeps throwing up polls of support for Chagos Deal, and over half merely shrugging not at all worked up. From this same poll “politics” section, Conservatives are against, but only by 37% to 21% with 42% don’t know.

    Before I started looking into it, I would have answered agains the deal, believing I knew enough about it to think it bad for national security and bizarre we are willing to unnecessarily pay so much good money for no good reason. Now I understand Chagos Deal inside out, my answer would still be strongly opposed to it going ahead, though for very different reasoning - my own preferred position (impossible though it is due to our ties to US defence systems) is now identical to the view Lord Dannatt expressed: just gift ownership to the US and India and walk away never to get involved again.

    Gut reaction should be oppose because it don’t make any sense, going from a gut reaction to knowing what it’s really about, should also be strongly oppose, so I don’t understand why polls pick up so much support and so much indifference.
    eh? "back down"? But your own take might have had much to be said for it except that we now realise that the USA (and India for that matter) may not be our steadfast allies

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056

    They really are quite insane.
    It was kind of america's world. Part of keeping it that way was not saying it so bluntly, and not undermining all their friendly relationships through petty, short term exertions of power to please a decrepit old man and his vindictive sidekick.

    It will be a world with some other major powers, a lot faster than was already the case, thanks to self defeating actions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    Wicked Trump no longer defying gravity…

    Trump economic approval ratings sag as inflation fears grow
    https://thehill.com/business/5167446-trump-economic-confidence-slipping/
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505
    Just reading the Italian news on all this.

    Mostly falls how you would expect: Salvini as Trumpist, Tajani the foreign minister and Forza leader with a strong pro-Ukraine and pro-Europe line and a proper row going on between those two coalition partners.

    PD's centre-left opposition lining with Forza and noting Meloni as missing in action, whilst Conte in 5-star antipathetic to Trump but pushing the kind of peace line that echoes him.

    Meloni is strangely quiet, she has often managed to be centre stage in Europe this last few years, but is not in the main London meeting tomorrow, and will be speaking with Starmer in the sidelines. Reportedly, her main line seems to be to get Trump in the room at a summit with European leaders and air it fully. Don't think Europe is on that page today. Her Atlanticism has been very US focussed and she gets on very well (like a giggly schoolgirl, tbh) with Musk, so it is a political bind to her the US going this path.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    Pro_Rata said:

    Just reading the Italian news on all this.

    Mostly falls how you would expect: Salvini as Trumpist, Tajani the foreign minister and Forza leader with a strong pro-Ukraine and pro-Europe line and a proper row going on between those two coalition partners.

    PD's centre-left opposition lining with Forza and noting Meloni as missing in action, whilst Conte in 5-star antipathetic to Trump but pushing the kind of peace line that echoes him.

    Meloni is strangely quiet, she has often managed to be centre stage in Europe this last few years, but is not in the main London meeting tomorrow, and will be speaking with Starmer in the sidelines. Reportedly, her main line seems to be to get Trump in the room at a summit with European leaders and air it fully. Don't think Europe is on that page today. Her Atlanticism has been very US focussed and she gets on very well (like a giggly schoolgirl, tbh) with Musk, so it is a political bind to her the US going this path.

    I believe she has been quite anti-Putin in the past, which will introduce tensions with any Trump discussions.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675
    Scott_xP said:

    A sitting GOP Senator

    @lisamurkowski
    This week started with administration officials refusing to acknowledge that Russia started the war in Ukraine. It ends with a tense, shocking conversation in the Oval Office and whispers from the White House that they may try to end all U.S. support for Ukraine. I know foreign policy is not for the faint of heart, but right now, I am sick to my stomach as the administration appears to be walking away from our allies and embracing Putin, a threat to democracy and U.S. values around the world.

    Jeez. Finally. Has one of them found they have a backbone.

    How late, how late it was.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    malcolmg said:

    Both spacehopper and teh hillbilly have fragile egos. Both absolute arses.
    Sometimes things really are that simple.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056

    Jeez. Finally. Has one of them found they have a backbone.

    How late, how late it was.
    Oh please, she'll be back in fold within days.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    edited March 1
    GIN1138 said:

    The only thing is, I'm not sure most of the people that have switched from CON and LAB to REF will necessarily care about Ukraine and in some cases might even support Russia.

    However, these developments much limit Reforms potential for further growth, at least in the short term?
    This polling has occurred before Oval-office gate, but well after mineral gate, when we were told that Reform's polling would already be down.

    Credit where it is due
    Right, so Starmer cuddles up to Trump (quite literally), and is now trying to build bridges between him and Zelensky, and you solemnly pat him on the back, but because Farage doesn't spit bile at Trump, he should go and live in Moscow.

    Do you not see a slight lack of logic here?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297
    Nigelb said:

    Wicked Trump no longer defying gravity…

    Trump economic approval ratings sag as inflation fears grow
    https://thehill.com/business/5167446-trump-economic-confidence-slipping/

    It's really important his approval ratings plummet at home.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,675

    It may not seem like it now, but there are some worse people than Trump in the GOP. He is scary - but at the end of the day he is an self-centred, self-preserving idiot. There are some far more sinister characters we should really hope don’t follow on from him.
    Can't see the difference now between these people on Fox News and those who are on nightly TV news shows in Moscow saying 'Putin will nuke the whole of Berlin tomorrow' if x or y does not happen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,214
    kinabalu said:

    It's really important his approval ratings plummet at home.
    It’s more important to acknowledge my pun.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786

    This polling has occurred before Oval-office gate, but well after mineral gate, when we were told that Reform's polling would already be down. Right, so Starmer cuddles up to Trump (quite literally), and is now trying to build bridges between him and Zelensky, and you solemnly pat him on the back, but because Farage doesn't spit bile at Trump, he should go and live in Moscow.

    Do you not see a slight lack of logic here?
    No

    Starmer is doing what any UK PM should do in these extreme circumstances and attempting to calm waters

    Farage is a Trump and Putin supporter and anyone voting Reform is endorsing the bullies in the White House
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,674
    TimS said:

    I have to mea culpa on this. I was very pissed off by what looked like a typical fawning performance by a PM in Washington on Thursday, and then a worrying silence yesterday after the ambush. But it does seem Starmer and his advisers knew what they were doing.

    Let’s see if it bears fruit. It’s encouraging that Britain and France are working in synch this weekend.
    It's easy to get caught up in the emotion of it all after witnessing what basically seemed like two bullies punching the guy in a wheelchair while handing the keys to his house to the person who put him in it. No shame in it at all.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    Nigelb said:

    President Pavel.

    The time has come to start considering a broad coalition of willing for just peace in Ukraine. “Peace” on terms of the aggressor is called a capitulation and would only encourage all current and future aggressors. Free world must stand up to the evil.
    https://x.com/prezidentpavel/status/1895934812646752643

    is there some good reason why these statements are still put on out on a platform owned by a man who is one of the biggest threats to European democracy?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,184
    Nigelb said:

    Hillbilly Legacy

    How JD Vance emerged as the chief saboteur of the transatlantic alliance
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/jd-vance-volodymyr-zelenskyy

    "He's a font of misplaced rage. Name your cliché; mother held him too much or not enough, last picked at kickball, late night sneaky uncle, whatever. Now he's so angry moments of levity actually cause him pain; gives him headaches. Happiness, for that gentleman, hurts."

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    DavidL said:

    Starmer seems to be trying to find a way for Trump to climb down without being utterly humiliated, as he would be if the Europeans, including the UK, give Ukraine sufficient resources to carry on the war until Russia is exhausted (which I believe to be imminent). If the Europeans do that Trump loses the leverage that he has attempted to deploy so brutally yesterday but let's not pretend that it would be easy for Europe given their own dependency on US logistical capacity.

    Of course, for diplomatic reasons, everyone will need to pretend that this is not a climb down for the US and Trump will have to be allowed to save some face somehow. But if Starmer achieves this he will have more than made up for the months of inaction and ineptitude since the election, he will show himself to be a true leader in difficult times.

    Do you think a single sane person in India, China, the US, Singapore, Haiti, France, Denmark or anywhere else thinks that their Head of Government's attitude to Ukraine is more important than any and all domestic policy considerations?

    It's an utterly bonkers take.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,568
    kinabalu said:

    It's really important his approval ratings plummet at home.
    Negative 1.5% GDP in the first quarter predicted by Atlanta Fed. That would be quite remarkable. And i suspect would lead to quite a few statisticians needing new jobs.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505

    No

    Starmer is doing what any UK PM should do in these extreme circumstances and attempting to calm waters

    Farage is a Trump and Putin supporter and anyone voting Reform is endorsing the bullies in the White House
    Imagine Farage dressing down a foreign leader like that at a summit.

    It isn't hard to do.

    Whether or not it's true.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,973

    Can't see the difference now between these people on Fox News and those who are on nightly TV news shows in Moscow saying 'Putin will nuke the whole of Berlin tomorrow' if x or y does not happen.
    Or those talking heads on Israeli tv advocating hosing out Palestinians from Gaza.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297

    Can't see the difference now between these people on Fox News and those who are on nightly TV news shows in Moscow saying 'Putin will nuke the whole of Berlin tomorrow' if x or y does not happen.
    Yes, the MAGA people come over like brainwashed automatons. There was one on Newsnight yesterday. Black is white, she kept saying, with a bright smile.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    edited March 1
    Saturday night rugby league from Las Vegas.
    And Wigan 24-0 up at halftime.
    Priceless.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,081
    @MAGALieTracker

    BREAKING: CNN is covering the hundreds of protesters who lined the roads in Vermont to protest JD Vance’s visit. One person held a sign that read, “Go ski in Russia, traitor.”

    The fallout from yesterday’s meeting is massive. Americans are pissed off.

    https://x.com/MAGALieTracker/status/1895959896396611616
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,297
    Nigelb said:

    It’s more important to acknowledge my pun.
    Too elevated for me ... not hard.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    The problem we face is that the right wing bubble keeping Reform afloat is largely impenetrable. It doesn’t matter what anyone else says.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636

    Do you think a single sane person in India, China, the US, Singapore, Haiti, France, Denmark or anywhere else thinks that their Head of Government's attitude to Ukraine is more important than any and all domestic policy considerations?

    It's an utterly bonkers take.
    What? It's the most important issue right now. And I would take a PM like Starmer who is rubbish at everything donestically but right about Ukraine over a hypothetical one who was right about everything donestically but wrong about Ukraine.
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