I’d just like to point out that not only I am one of the vanishingly few provable direct descendants of Rollo of Normandy I am also about to miss my plane to Shanghai
You also appear to have been banned. That's put paid to your argument.
Ooops, yes. His brain forgot that running to AI in search of a better one is a banning offence!
I disagree, I’m the other way. There is absolutely no way Putin will agree to allow what’s left of Ukraine to join NATO, will never sign anything allowing that, so Starmer and Europe are locked on course to selling out Ukraine. Wave after wave of talks will fall on the question of NATO membership until Starmer and Europe will insist Ukraine cuts a deal that will never be justified or fair, in order to make the war stop.
There is no “win win” or lasting peace option from where it is now, so all hugs in Downing Street and elsewhere in Europe have to be seen as ultimately leading to that betrayal and an unfair deal for Ukraine forced on them. that in itself will set the precedent sovereign borders can be redrawn, that will be music to the Kremlin’s ears.
There's an assumption there we will always be dealing with Putin but any other Russian leader will not be able to stomach NATO advancing another 800 miles east.
As I've said before on here, what does a "peace deal" look like? Do we have UN peacekeepers and a "green line" as in Cyprus with Brazilian or Ghanaian or Pakistani troops patrolling Mariupol? We could but who pays for it and what would be the point? What about the rest of the Russo-Ukrainian border?
Ultimately, the ability of Russia and Ukraine to co-exist has to be recognised (ring any bells?) and each has to recognise the other's right to exist. Once you have that, you can move forward but Putin and Zelensky have far too much invested to move from their entrenched positions.
As I've also said, the current situation suits too many important players - "something" will need to change and it will be either political (either Putin or Zelensky is removed) or military (one side or the other becomes incapable of maintaining the current stalemate). Until that happens, people will go on fighting and dying and the rest of it is all for show. Most wars end when the political or military situation changes such that the war cannot continue.
What really seemed to upset Vance and Trump was Zelensky campaigning in Pennsylvania for the Democrats and that wasn't, in fairness, the smartest move. Thank goodness none of our parties were stupid enough to send supporters to campaign for Harris.
I agree this was definitely a trigger. In that context it's funny that Starmer got away with Labour's actions. Once again it shows that this was a hatchet job on Z.
Starmer didn't get away with anything Trump and Vance are seriously harsh about Starmer's restricting free speech and the Apple backdoor nonsense
Watch the WHOLE press conference
I mean specifically the Labour representatives going to campaign for Harris. I didn't see Trump or Vance use that against Starmer; did I miss it?
I think that all of this is a series of tactical exaggerations / misrepresentations, tbh.
Here is an FT piece about a group of Republicans coming to the UK in 2015 to help the Tories campaign in marginal seats. Campaigning with sister parties over the pond is just normal, and has been so since the time of Mrs Thatcher, and perhaps earlier (I wasn't around). https://www.ft.com/content/48d94f08-e82b-11e4-9960-00144feab7de
The President of Ukraine visiting a US Munitions plant with a representative of the US Govt to thank the workers for making shells for his country is actually exactly what Vance was demanding, ie gratitude. The issue is perhaps the Vance fantasises about the state as politicised against him. Vance's demands about "have you thanked us" are nonsense, the USA already having been thanked again at the start of the meeting. I say Vance's upset is entirely tactical.
The free speech stuff is weird. The examples in Vance's Munich speech were fabrications - whether because he's manipulating or because he's ignorant I cannot tell. "Facebook poster jailed for hurty words" claims I have seen have almost all been for far more serious offences, such as calling for hotels full of brown people to be burnt down with the brown people still in them. That's an attempted wedge issue by elements on the Right of our politics, in the hope of using talking points that used to belong to the BNP and similar to build a support base.
IMO it's all mainly Trump & Vance reacting to images they have projected on the inside of their own heads, or a deliberate political tactic. Vance gets seriously harsh when anyone refuses to kneel down and lick the boots.
Bollocks, people ARE doing jailtime for social media, and cops are knocking on doors for literally NON crime "hate incidents"
Free speech is under attack in the UK in a way we have not seen in many decades. Meanwhile we suddenly have a de facto blasphemy law that only protects Islam
There are many reasons to abhor Trump, one of them - for me - is this: his oafish, New Jersey Mafia Don impression is slowing the advance of the new right that will reverse all this shit. Cf Canada
It feels to me like Western Democracy - the amazing fruit of the Enlightenment - is dying.
What is clear is that Europe, plus Canada, Australia & NZ - these places will be the last bastions of Western Democracy, not the US.
The imminent failure of the US as key pillar of democarcy on the alt-right, no one else.
It really is dying. The stats don't lie
EIU’s 2024 Democracy Index: trend of global democratic decline and strengthening authoritarianism continues through 2024
Not much of a surprise. Full democracies has never been as numerous as people in the West think, and several places are backsliding. Any going in the other direction need to be celebrated.
I believe, long term, that democracy is dead
Well, we need to change that - pronto - because one thing linked to the death of democracy is a lack of respect for the sanctity of life.
Extra-judicial killings and violence is normal. And that could include you.
A lot of people like the idea of a strong man leader, a leviathan who who won't be constrained by the slowness of democratic systems and will do exactly what they want.
The problem is that one is equally likely to get a strong man leader who shares none of your views and values and who hates people like you: so @Leon ends up with a Jeremy Corbyn strongman, not a Marine Le Pen one.
And, then, of course: how do you get rid of them? The messiness of democracy suddenly looks a lot less unattractive.
What I think we need, though, is to tweak our democratic system so that politicians get the message they're making a mistake quicker. The Chagos deal, for example, is liked by (as far as I can tell) Starmer and... umm... Starmer's mum.
How do we introduce feedback systems around - say EU membership, or Chagos, or shooting up immigration, so that politicians can make smaller decisions quicker (incrementalism) rather than making massive changes (often over-corrections) every four years.
54% say "don't know", and the ludicrous costs of the "deal" were not mentioned, let alone the spurious connection to far away Mauritius
Well, that’s democracy for you. You can think other people wrong, because they’re not considering the full facts of the situation or they have been misled. You can try to persuade people. But you also have to acknowledge that, for whatever reason, other people may settle on a different view to you. Maybe after public debate, the demos will swing around to your point of view, and maybe they won’t.
My point is not to defend or argue against the Chagos deal. It’s to note that rcs1000’s view that no-one likes the Chagos deal, and to use that as an example of democracy failing, is in error. Lots of people, rightly or wrongly, like the deal. I don’t disagree with rcs1000’s broader point, but for democracy to be seen to be working, we need mechanisms by which people can express their views and we need to get out of our own media bubbles.
Okay, my point is the vacuity of this kind of polling
Don’t back down Geoff, I think you were spot on first time - over 54% don’t know suggests an awful lot of people don’t feel they truly understand it, or feel they do understand it enough to not give a damn.
It is odd though, considering there has been a lot of frothy hatred of Chagos deal in the dead tree media, and absolutely no one on PB (I’m aware of) defending it, that polling keeps throwing up polls of support for Chagos Deal, and over half merely shrugging not at all worked up. From this same poll “politics” section, Conservatives are against, but only by 37% to 21% with 42% don’t know.
Before I started looking into it, I would have answered agains the deal, believing I knew enough about it to think it bad for national security and bizarre we are willing to unnecessarily pay so much good money for no good reason. Now I understand Chagos Deal inside out, my answer would still be strongly opposed to it going ahead, though for very different reasoning - my own preferred position (impossible though it is due to our ties to US defence systems) is now identical to the view Lord Dannatt expressed: just gift ownership to the US and India and walk away never to get involved again.
Gut reaction should be oppose because it don’t make any sense, going from a gut reaction to knowing what it’s really about, should also be strongly oppose, so I don’t understand why polls pick up so much support and so much indifference.
eh? "back down"? But your own take might have had much to be said for it except that we now realise that the USA (and India for that matter) may not be our steadfast allies
US, India and France have rarely shirked a chance for shafting the old colonial power UK at any point in the last 100 years. For dealing with Trump 2.0, it’s simply matter of keeping calm and steering it. As UK Prime Minister you will take decisions and act on basis Trump is just a 4 year thing, a blip.
There wasn’t much in tight US election race despite the price of eggs. If Biden stuck to his word being a bridge president, announced intention not to run in 2023 and allowed a Democratic Primary, the tight election could have been even tighter, even a different outcome.
Trumps campaign of backing away from Project 25 only to implement it from day 1, was fraudulent. he has no moral authority or popular support for anything he is doing. Even before the ruinous idiocy of Trumpnomics kicks in, we may already have passed peak power and influence from Trump 2.0.
Mug of tea. Keep calm, carry on.
We colonised France? Surely they colonised us…well the England bit anyway.
Shh. They were Norsemen. Norse Men. Who just happened to speak French and pay homage to the French throne, it's totally different, we swear.
It was because that Rollo fell out with his brother; I saw it on TV.
Rollo of Normandy is my great gggggggggggggg grandfather via my dad and his great grandfather
And mine.
In fact if Rollo has any living descendants than we all are.
1.5 million living descendants according to Google; so yeah I’m not exactly unique
The uniqueness comes from the fact I have a traceable line - via one ultra posh “cornish” family
The family seat is still there, tho the 14th century manor was rebuilt after a calamitous fire and is now an exquisite regency mansion hard by the Helford River - a gorgeous corner of Britain
It sold for several million a few years ago
One extra piquant fact - my sister, niece, mum, nephew, cousins and brand new son-of-niece (2 weeks old!) all live within 10 miles or less of where “we” lived 800 years back
No. All Europeans today are definitely descendants of Rollo (if he has any living descendants)
What really seemed to upset Vance and Trump was Zelensky campaigning in Pennsylvania for the Democrats and that wasn't, in fairness, the smartest move. Thank goodness none of our parties were stupid enough to send supporters to campaign for Harris.
I agree this was definitely a trigger. In that context it's funny that Starmer got away with Labour's actions. Once again it shows that this was a hatchet job on Z.
Starmer didn't get away with anything Trump and Vance are seriously harsh about Starmer's restricting free speech and the Apple backdoor nonsense
Watch the WHOLE press conference
I mean specifically the Labour representatives going to campaign for Harris. I didn't see Trump or Vance use that against Starmer; did I miss it?
I think that all of this is a series of tactical exaggerations / misrepresentations, tbh.
Here is an FT piece about a group of Republicans coming to the UK in 2015 to help the Tories campaign in marginal seats. Campaigning with sister parties over the pond is just normal, and has been so since the time of Mrs Thatcher, and perhaps earlier (I wasn't around). https://www.ft.com/content/48d94f08-e82b-11e4-9960-00144feab7de
The President of Ukraine visiting a US Munitions plant with a representative of the US Govt to thank the workers for making shells for his country is actually exactly what Vance was demanding, ie gratitude. The issue is perhaps the Vance fantasises about the state as politicised against him. Vance's demands about "have you thanked us" are nonsense, the USA already having been thanked again at the start of the meeting. I say Vance's upset is entirely tactical.
The free speech stuff is weird. The examples in Vance's Munich speech were fabrications - whether because he's manipulating or because he's ignorant I cannot tell. "Facebook poster jailed for hurty words" claims I have seen have almost all been for far more serious offences, such as calling for hotels full of brown people to be burnt down with the brown people still in them. That's an attempted wedge issue by elements on the Right of our politics, in the hope of using talking points that used to belong to the BNP and similar to build a support base.
IMO it's all mainly Trump & Vance reacting to images they have projected on the inside of their own heads, or a deliberate political tactic. Vance gets seriously harsh when anyone refuses to kneel down and lick the boots.
Bollocks, people ARE doing jailtime for social media, and cops are knocking on doors for literally NON crime "hate incidents"
Free speech is under attack in the UK in a way we have not seen in many decades. Meanwhile we suddenly have a de facto blasphemy law that only protects Islam
There are many reasons to abhor Trump, one of them - for me - is this: his oafish, New Jersey Mafia Don impression is slowing the advance of the new right that will reverse all this shit. Cf Canada
It feels to me like Western Democracy - the amazing fruit of the Enlightenment - is dying.
What is clear is that Europe, plus Canada, Australia & NZ - these places will be the last bastions of Western Democracy, not the US.
The imminent failure of the US as key pillar of democarcy on the alt-right, no one else.
It really is dying. The stats don't lie
EIU’s 2024 Democracy Index: trend of global democratic decline and strengthening authoritarianism continues through 2024
Not much of a surprise. Full democracies has never been as numerous as people in the West think, and several places are backsliding. Any going in the other direction need to be celebrated.
I believe, long term, that democracy is dead
Well, we need to change that - pronto - because one thing linked to the death of democracy is a lack of respect for the sanctity of life.
Extra-judicial killings and violence is normal. And that could include you.
A lot of people like the idea of a strong man leader, a leviathan who who won't be constrained by the slowness of democratic systems and will do exactly what they want.
The problem is that one is equally likely to get a strong man leader who shares none of your views and values and who hates people like you: so @Leon ends up with a Jeremy Corbyn strongman, not a Marine Le Pen one.
And, then, of course: how do you get rid of them? The messiness of democracy suddenly looks a lot less unattractive.
What I think we need, though, is to tweak our democratic system so that politicians get the message they're making a mistake quicker. The Chagos deal, for example, is liked by (as far as I can tell) Starmer and... umm... Starmer's mum.
How do we introduce feedback systems around - say EU membership, or Chagos, or shooting up immigration, so that politicians can make smaller decisions quicker (incrementalism) rather than making massive changes (often over-corrections) every four years.
54% say "don't know", and the ludicrous costs of the "deal" were not mentioned, let alone the spurious connection to far away Mauritius
Well, that’s democracy for you. You can think other people wrong, because they’re not considering the full facts of the situation or they have been misled. You can try to persuade people. But you also have to acknowledge that, for whatever reason, other people may settle on a different view to you. Maybe after public debate, the demos will swing around to your point of view, and maybe they won’t.
My point is not to defend or argue against the Chagos deal. It’s to note that rcs1000’s view that no-one likes the Chagos deal, and to use that as an example of democracy failing, is in error. Lots of people, rightly or wrongly, like the deal. I don’t disagree with rcs1000’s broader point, but for democracy to be seen to be working, we need mechanisms by which people can express their views and we need to get out of our own media bubbles.
Okay, my point is the vacuity of this kind of polling
Don’t back down Geoff, I think you were spot on first time - over 54% don’t know suggests an awful lot of people don’t feel they truly understand it, or feel they do understand it enough to not give a damn.
It is odd though, considering there has been a lot of frothy hatred of Chagos deal in the dead tree media, and absolutely no one on PB (I’m aware of) defending it, that polling keeps throwing up polls of support for Chagos Deal, and over half merely shrugging not at all worked up. From this same poll “politics” section, Conservatives are against, but only by 37% to 21% with 42% don’t know.
Before I started looking into it, I would have answered agains the deal, believing I knew enough about it to think it bad for national security and bizarre we are willing to unnecessarily pay so much good money for no good reason. Now I understand Chagos Deal inside out, my answer would still be strongly opposed to it going ahead, though for very different reasoning - my own preferred position (impossible though it is due to our ties to US defence systems) is now identical to the view Lord Dannatt expressed: just gift ownership to the US and India and walk away never to get involved again.
Gut reaction should be oppose because it don’t make any sense, going from a gut reaction to knowing what it’s really about, should also be strongly oppose, so I don’t understand why polls pick up so much support and so much indifference.
eh? "back down"? But your own take might have had much to be said for it except that we now realise that the USA (and India for that matter) may not be our steadfast allies
US, India and France have rarely shirked a chance for shafting the old colonial power UK at any point in the last 100 years. For dealing with Trump 2.0, it’s simply matter of keeping calm and steering it. As UK Prime Minister you will take decisions and act on basis Trump is just a 4 year thing, a blip.
There wasn’t much in tight US election race despite the price of eggs. If Biden stuck to his word being a bridge president, announced intention not to run in 2023 and allowed a Democratic Primary, the tight election could have been even tighter, even a different outcome.
Trumps campaign of backing away from Project 25 only to implement it from day 1, was fraudulent. he has no moral authority or popular support for anything he is doing. Even before the ruinous idiocy of Trumpnomics kicks in, we may already have passed peak power and influence from Trump 2.0.
Mug of tea. Keep calm, carry on.
We colonised France? Surely they colonised us…well the England bit anyway.
Shh. They were Norsemen. Norse Men. Who just happened to speak French and pay homage to the French throne, it's totally different, we swear.
It was because that Rollo fell out with his brother; I saw it on TV.
Rollo of Normandy is my great gggggggggggggg grandfather via my dad and his great grandfather
And mine.
In fact if Rollo has any living descendants than we all are.
1.5 million living descendants according to Google; so yeah I’m not exactly unique (tho fuck knows how Google reached that number)
The uniqueness comes from the fact I have a traceable line - via one ultra posh “cornish” family
The family seat is still there, tho the 14th century manor was rebuilt after a calamitous fire and is now an exquisite regency mansion hard by the Helford River - a gorgeous corner of Britain
It sold for several million a few years ago
One extra piquant fact - my sister, niece, mum, nephew, cousins and brand new son-of-niece (2 weeks old!) all live within 10 miles or less of where “we” lived 800 years back
Still wrong.
Everyond who lived a thousand years ago who has any European descendants today is an ancestor of every European.
Both maths and DNA evidence tell you this.
+1
That's our village idiot properly pwned.
Np, @kamsko is making a common mistake confusing genealogical ancestor with direct ancestry
Why not think about it for a second before typing out more rubbish?
As I said above, it's a mathematical fact that both you and I have 300,000,000,000,000 direct ancestors if you go back 48 generations. If you went back to the tiny population back then, there will be a fair few people whose lines died out - statistically this will be people who had no children or whose children had no children (since once you go beyond that, the chances of an entire line dying out diminish toward zero very rapidly). For all the others, certainly in this end of Europe, we're all descended from all of them, and that 300,000,000,000,000 hits would have to be distributed over just a few tens of million people, with those whose lines haven't died out scoring an average of ten million hits each.
Both you and I are likely descended from Rollo some ten million times over.
You’re confusing direct descent with “being on the same family tree”. It’s your inverse Wykehamist Fallacy again
No, he's not.
You have hundreds of trillions of direct ancestors. 2^48
That's not "same family tree", that's not counting brothers and sisters, aunts or uncles or any other relatives, that's pure direct ancestry.
Now there have never been that many people alive, so obviously the same people appear in the direct ancestry many times over, but the point is that when it comes to ancestry, we all have the same ultimately. Through direct bloodlines, parent to child to the power of 48 generations.
You all seem to be forgetting cousin marraiage. An awful lot of those huge number of ancestors are the same person many, many times over. Historically two things were true. The nobility tended to marry within the nobility. And people generally moved around a heck of a lot less. Think about regional accents. They have arisen because people didn’t mix that much. It’s entirely plausible that anyone on this board isn’t a direct descendent of Rollo.
I didn't forget cousin marriage, I explicitly mentioned that we have the same people appearing in the ancestry many times over.
However the odds of each of the hundreds of trillions of possible permutations, even reduced, not being hit once is utterly miniscule. And while the nobility tended to marry the nobility, that was only for the lines that continued the noble line which relied heavily on primogeniture, eventually the 4th child of the 4th child of the 4th child etc isn't getting noble marriages anymore though they still have the same direct ancestry.
The odds of anyone on this board not being a direct descendent by now are so close to zero they effectively are zero.
Exactly. Very well explained. In fact it is essential there are multiple cousin marriages although some might be 100s of times removed so not a cousin in the accepted sense (ie we are all cousins) as the power of 2 calculation will come to a number greater than the entire population many times over.
So not only are we all direct decedents, but we are multiple times over.
Ah, the joy of a Political Betting discussion on... Ancestry. I'm loving it!
To pitch in with my two ha'penny worth:
@Leon should forget old Rollo - just as I should forget my family name connection to one of William's henchmen, Miles de Venoix - because we are both also descended from William the Conqueror himself of course - a much more significant ancestor!
Ah, but @Leon can prove the lineage to Rollo... Unfortunately, that is to forget that an estimated 5% of named fathers were not the biological father.
I've realised my faux pas there re Rollo being William's great great great grandfather.(Assuming none of Poppa, Sprota, Gunnor, Judith and Herleve were playing away of course.)
The nature of warfare is changing very fast. Last year Ukraine produced more than 1.3m drones for its military to use, comfortably more than anyone else in the world. This year there will be considerably more. How much longer will the Russian manpower advantage even be relevant?
The Russians, in contrast, have largely been dependent upon running down huge stocks of artillery and tanks together with imports paid for by capital reserves which are now exhausted.
This war is not developing to Russia’s advantage, not at all. The balance is swinging in Ukraine’s favour but they still need financial help to keep their government running, the economy moving and the Russians at bay until the swing becomes more decisive. Hopefully they will get it today.
It’s weird how much Trump has misjudged this. It’s almost as if they were getting their information from Russia.
The amount of Russian kit destroyed is remarkable. These are the claimed "kills" by the Ukrainians:
Even if you halve them, that is still untold billions. The anti-aircraft systems alone are often cited as being $10m plus a pop. The Soviet stockpiles are gone. The troops are now often old men on crutches, forced to go back and finish the job of getting killed for Mother Russia.
Russia has battled on the assumpton that Trump will deliver a ceasefire. They've gone all in with men and materal. It’s weird how much Russia has misjudged this. It’s almost as if they were getting their information from Trump...
I think that their strategy has been valid. They have tried to make use of their stockpiles before they are depleted and manpower when it is still relevant. Hence the pretty much full out attacks of the last year. And they have not been without success in that they have ground the Ukrainians down and stretched their manpower to the limit.
But the tide is against them. Even converted to a full war economy they can only replace a small proportion of their losses of material. Their artillery has been essential to the way that they have waged war, not just in Ukraine but elsewhere. Pulverise then occupy has been their strategy. But if you are losing 50+ artillery systems a day that becomes more and more difficult and without pulverisation the casualties of these attacks rise rapidly.
I would give Russia maybe another 6 months or so and that does not allow for a sudden collapse. No wonder they are desperately calling in their asset in the White House to help out.
The nature of warfare is changing very fast. Last year Ukraine produced more than 1.3m drones for its military to use, comfortably more than anyone else in the world. This year there will be considerably more. How much longer will the Russian manpower advantage even be relevant?
The Russians, in contrast, have largely been dependent upon running down huge stocks of artillery and tanks together with imports paid for by capital reserves which are now exhausted.
This war is not developing to Russia’s advantage, not at all. The balance is swinging in Ukraine’s favour but they still need financial help to keep their government running, the economy moving and the Russians at bay until the swing becomes more decisive. Hopefully they will get it today.
It’s weird how much Trump has misjudged this. It’s almost as if they were getting their information from Russia.
Well said.
There is a reason Putin's shills are desperate for "peace" soon and it is because Russia is getting close to culmination.
Europe needs to stand firm and back Ukraine.
Trump was completely wrong to say Ukraine doesn't "hold any cards", it is Russia that is failing more than Ukraine. Russia's already raided its prisons and sent North Koreans in meatwaves to the front, they're running out of money and meat to send to the grinder.
If Europe backs Ukraine fully, then even if Trump cuts America's support, Ukraine still should win this war. If Europe stands firm, I doubt Putin will make it to the end of Trump's term, which would be quite an irony and what a legacy for Trump to be the US POTUS who upended America's relationships and backed the wrong horse.
There won’t be any sudden collapse. I expect the broken back nature of the Russian war effort to become even more pronounced.
“How many living direct descendants does Rollo of Normandy have, living today?”
Answer:
“It’s impossible to be exact, but a reasonable estimate would place Rollo of Normandy’s living direct descendants at tens of thousands—possibly more.
Reasoning: • Rollo (c. 860–930 CE) lived around 1,100 years ago, which translates roughly to 35 generations. • Noble families like Rollo’s tended to have well-documented lineages through European royalty and aristocracy, who historically had numerous offspring. • Royal and noble descendants spread widely over Europe through marriage and reproduction.
Known facts: • William the Conqueror was Rollo’s great-great-great-grandson, and through William, Rollo’s descendants multiplied exponentially among European nobility. • Royal genealogists have identified thousands of documented direct descendants today—most European monarchs and aristocratic families trace ancestry to Rollo.
Given exponential growth, intermarriage, and known historical documentation, it’s very plausible that tens of thousands (possibly even hundreds of thousands) alive today could claim direct descent.
However, provable, documented direct descent is limited mainly to aristocratic or royal lineages, probably numbering in the thousands to tens of thousands at most.”
That's a complete fail, and all you've demonstrated is the pitfalls of relying on AI for something that is complicated.
The number of generations is underestimated because it's used the current average maternal age at childbirth of just over 30, and applied it through history, which is obvious nonsense - and a figure in the mid-20s makes an absolutely huge difference. And after that it's failed to do any meaningful maths at all. You should stop relying on a search engine to think about stuff.
Also, isn't that official rather than actual descent?
Anyone with a brain cell will realise the degree of adultery and illegitimacy throughout history. And it takes just one such to break a bloodline.
“How many living direct descendants does Rollo of Normandy have, living today?”
Answer:
“It’s impossible to be exact, but a reasonable estimate would place Rollo of Normandy’s living direct descendants at tens of thousands—possibly more.
Reasoning: • Rollo (c. 860–930 CE) lived around 1,100 years ago, which translates roughly to 35 generations. • Noble families like Rollo’s tended to have well-documented lineages through European royalty and aristocracy, who historically had numerous offspring. • Royal and noble descendants spread widely over Europe through marriage and reproduction.
Known facts: • William the Conqueror was Rollo’s great-great-great-grandson, and through William, Rollo’s descendants multiplied exponentially among European nobility. • Royal genealogists have identified thousands of documented direct descendants today—most European monarchs and aristocratic families trace ancestry to Rollo.
Given exponential growth, intermarriage, and known historical documentation, it’s very plausible that tens of thousands (possibly even hundreds of thousands) alive today could claim direct descent.
However, provable, documented direct descent is limited mainly to aristocratic or royal lineages, probably numbering in the thousands to tens of thousands at most.”
That's a complete fail, and all you've demonstrated is the pitfalls of relying on AI for something that is complicated.
The number of generations is underestimated because it's used the current average maternal age at childbirth of just over 30, and applied it through history, which is obvious nonsense - and a figure in the mid-20s makes an absolutely huge difference. And after that it's failed to do any meaningful maths at all. You should stop relying on a search engine to think about stuff.
Also, isn't that official rather than actual descent?
Anyone with a brain cell will realise the degree of adultery and illegitimacy throughout history. And it takes just one such to break a bloodline.
Yes, I do some sums on that in a later post. Chances are probably above evens that Leon's claimed link doesn't actually exist, as a bloodline.
What really seemed to upset Vance and Trump was Zelensky campaigning in Pennsylvania for the Democrats and that wasn't, in fairness, the smartest move. Thank goodness none of our parties were stupid enough to send supporters to campaign for Harris.
I agree this was definitely a trigger. In that context it's funny that Starmer got away with Labour's actions. Once again it shows that this was a hatchet job on Z.
Starmer didn't get away with anything Trump and Vance are seriously harsh about Starmer's restricting free speech and the Apple backdoor nonsense
Watch the WHOLE press conference
I mean specifically the Labour representatives going to campaign for Harris. I didn't see Trump or Vance use that against Starmer; did I miss it?
I think that all of this is a series of tactical exaggerations / misrepresentations, tbh.
Here is an FT piece about a group of Republicans coming to the UK in 2015 to help the Tories campaign in marginal seats. Campaigning with sister parties over the pond is just normal, and has been so since the time of Mrs Thatcher, and perhaps earlier (I wasn't around). https://www.ft.com/content/48d94f08-e82b-11e4-9960-00144feab7de
The President of Ukraine visiting a US Munitions plant with a representative of the US Govt to thank the workers for making shells for his country is actually exactly what Vance was demanding, ie gratitude. The issue is perhaps the Vance fantasises about the state as politicised against him. Vance's demands about "have you thanked us" are nonsense, the USA already having been thanked again at the start of the meeting. I say Vance's upset is entirely tactical.
The free speech stuff is weird. The examples in Vance's Munich speech were fabrications - whether because he's manipulating or because he's ignorant I cannot tell. "Facebook poster jailed for hurty words" claims I have seen have almost all been for far more serious offences, such as calling for hotels full of brown people to be burnt down with the brown people still in them. That's an attempted wedge issue by elements on the Right of our politics, in the hope of using talking points that used to belong to the BNP and similar to build a support base.
IMO it's all mainly Trump & Vance reacting to images they have projected on the inside of their own heads, or a deliberate political tactic. Vance gets seriously harsh when anyone refuses to kneel down and lick the boots.
Bollocks, people ARE doing jailtime for social media, and cops are knocking on doors for literally NON crime "hate incidents"
Free speech is under attack in the UK in a way we have not seen in many decades. Meanwhile we suddenly have a de facto blasphemy law that only protects Islam
There are many reasons to abhor Trump, one of them - for me - is this: his oafish, New Jersey Mafia Don impression is slowing the advance of the new right that will reverse all this shit. Cf Canada
It feels to me like Western Democracy - the amazing fruit of the Enlightenment - is dying.
What is clear is that Europe, plus Canada, Australia & NZ - these places will be the last bastions of Western Democracy, not the US.
The imminent failure of the US as key pillar of democarcy on the alt-right, no one else.
It really is dying. The stats don't lie
EIU’s 2024 Democracy Index: trend of global democratic decline and strengthening authoritarianism continues through 2024
Not much of a surprise. Full democracies has never been as numerous as people in the West think, and several places are backsliding. Any going in the other direction need to be celebrated.
I believe, long term, that democracy is dead
Well, we need to change that - pronto - because one thing linked to the death of democracy is a lack of respect for the sanctity of life.
Extra-judicial killings and violence is normal. And that could include you.
A lot of people like the idea of a strong man leader, a leviathan who who won't be constrained by the slowness of democratic systems and will do exactly what they want.
The problem is that one is equally likely to get a strong man leader who shares none of your views and values and who hates people like you: so @Leon ends up with a Jeremy Corbyn strongman, not a Marine Le Pen one.
And, then, of course: how do you get rid of them? The messiness of democracy suddenly looks a lot less unattractive.
What I think we need, though, is to tweak our democratic system so that politicians get the message they're making a mistake quicker. The Chagos deal, for example, is liked by (as far as I can tell) Starmer and... umm... Starmer's mum.
How do we introduce feedback systems around - say EU membership, or Chagos, or shooting up immigration, so that politicians can make smaller decisions quicker (incrementalism) rather than making massive changes (often over-corrections) every four years.
54% say "don't know", and the ludicrous costs of the "deal" were not mentioned, let alone the spurious connection to far away Mauritius
Well, that’s democracy for you. You can think other people wrong, because they’re not considering the full facts of the situation or they have been misled. You can try to persuade people. But you also have to acknowledge that, for whatever reason, other people may settle on a different view to you. Maybe after public debate, the demos will swing around to your point of view, and maybe they won’t.
My point is not to defend or argue against the Chagos deal. It’s to note that rcs1000’s view that no-one likes the Chagos deal, and to use that as an example of democracy failing, is in error. Lots of people, rightly or wrongly, like the deal. I don’t disagree with rcs1000’s broader point, but for democracy to be seen to be working, we need mechanisms by which people can express their views and we need to get out of our own media bubbles.
Okay, my point is the vacuity of this kind of polling
Don’t back down Geoff, I think you were spot on first time - over 54% don’t know suggests an awful lot of people don’t feel they truly understand it, or feel they do understand it enough to not give a damn.
It is odd though, considering there has been a lot of frothy hatred of Chagos deal in the dead tree media, and absolutely no one on PB (I’m aware of) defending it, that polling keeps throwing up polls of support for Chagos Deal, and over half merely shrugging not at all worked up. From this same poll “politics” section, Conservatives are against, but only by 37% to 21% with 42% don’t know.
Before I started looking into it, I would have answered agains the deal, believing I knew enough about it to think it bad for national security and bizarre we are willing to unnecessarily pay so much good money for no good reason. Now I understand Chagos Deal inside out, my answer would still be strongly opposed to it going ahead, though for very different reasoning - my own preferred position (impossible though it is due to our ties to US defence systems) is now identical to the view Lord Dannatt expressed: just gift ownership to the US and India and walk away never to get involved again.
Gut reaction should be oppose because it don’t make any sense, going from a gut reaction to knowing what it’s really about, should also be strongly oppose, so I don’t understand why polls pick up so much support and so much indifference.
eh? "back down"? But your own take might have had much to be said for it except that we now realise that the USA (and India for that matter) may not be our steadfast allies
US, India and France have rarely shirked a chance for shafting the old colonial power UK at any point in the last 100 years. For dealing with Trump 2.0, it’s simply matter of keeping calm and steering it. As UK Prime Minister you will take decisions and act on basis Trump is just a 4 year thing, a blip.
There wasn’t much in tight US election race despite the price of eggs. If Biden stuck to his word being a bridge president, announced intention not to run in 2023 and allowed a Democratic Primary, the tight election could have been even tighter, even a different outcome.
Trumps campaign of backing away from Project 25 only to implement it from day 1, was fraudulent. he has no moral authority or popular support for anything he is doing. Even before the ruinous idiocy of Trumpnomics kicks in, we may already have passed peak power and influence from Trump 2.0.
Mug of tea. Keep calm, carry on.
We colonised France? Surely they colonised us…well the England bit anyway.
Shh. They were Norsemen. Norse Men. Who just happened to speak French and pay homage to the French throne, it's totally different, we swear.
It was because that Rollo fell out with his brother; I saw it on TV.
Rollo of Normandy is my great gggggggggggggg grandfather via my dad and his great grandfather
And mine.
In fact if Rollo has any living descendants than we all are.
1.5 million living descendants according to Google; so yeah I’m not exactly unique
The uniqueness comes from the fact I have a traceable line - via one ultra posh “cornish” family
The family seat is still there, tho the 14th century manor was rebuilt after a calamitous fire and is now an exquisite regency mansion hard by the Helford River - a gorgeous corner of Britain
It sold for several million a few years ago
One extra piquant fact - my sister, niece, mum, nephew, cousins and brand new son-of-niece (2 weeks old!) all live within 10 miles or less of where “we” lived 800 years back
No. All Europeans today are definitely descendants of Rollo (if he has any living descendants)
What really seemed to upset Vance and Trump was Zelensky campaigning in Pennsylvania for the Democrats and that wasn't, in fairness, the smartest move. Thank goodness none of our parties were stupid enough to send supporters to campaign for Harris.
I agree this was definitely a trigger. In that context it's funny that Starmer got away with Labour's actions. Once again it shows that this was a hatchet job on Z.
Starmer didn't get away with anything Trump and Vance are seriously harsh about Starmer's restricting free speech and the Apple backdoor nonsense
Watch the WHOLE press conference
I mean specifically the Labour representatives going to campaign for Harris. I didn't see Trump or Vance use that against Starmer; did I miss it?
I think that all of this is a series of tactical exaggerations / misrepresentations, tbh.
Here is an FT piece about a group of Republicans coming to the UK in 2015 to help the Tories campaign in marginal seats. Campaigning with sister parties over the pond is just normal, and has been so since the time of Mrs Thatcher, and perhaps earlier (I wasn't around). https://www.ft.com/content/48d94f08-e82b-11e4-9960-00144feab7de
The President of Ukraine visiting a US Munitions plant with a representative of the US Govt to thank the workers for making shells for his country is actually exactly what Vance was demanding, ie gratitude. The issue is perhaps the Vance fantasises about the state as politicised against him. Vance's demands about "have you thanked us" are nonsense, the USA already having been thanked again at the start of the meeting. I say Vance's upset is entirely tactical.
The free speech stuff is weird. The examples in Vance's Munich speech were fabrications - whether because he's manipulating or because he's ignorant I cannot tell. "Facebook poster jailed for hurty words" claims I have seen have almost all been for far more serious offences, such as calling for hotels full of brown people to be burnt down with the brown people still in them. That's an attempted wedge issue by elements on the Right of our politics, in the hope of using talking points that used to belong to the BNP and similar to build a support base.
IMO it's all mainly Trump & Vance reacting to images they have projected on the inside of their own heads, or a deliberate political tactic. Vance gets seriously harsh when anyone refuses to kneel down and lick the boots.
Bollocks, people ARE doing jailtime for social media, and cops are knocking on doors for literally NON crime "hate incidents"
Free speech is under attack in the UK in a way we have not seen in many decades. Meanwhile we suddenly have a de facto blasphemy law that only protects Islam
There are many reasons to abhor Trump, one of them - for me - is this: his oafish, New Jersey Mafia Don impression is slowing the advance of the new right that will reverse all this shit. Cf Canada
It feels to me like Western Democracy - the amazing fruit of the Enlightenment - is dying.
What is clear is that Europe, plus Canada, Australia & NZ - these places will be the last bastions of Western Democracy, not the US.
The imminent failure of the US as key pillar of democarcy on the alt-right, no one else.
It really is dying. The stats don't lie
EIU’s 2024 Democracy Index: trend of global democratic decline and strengthening authoritarianism continues through 2024
Not much of a surprise. Full democracies has never been as numerous as people in the West think, and several places are backsliding. Any going in the other direction need to be celebrated.
I believe, long term, that democracy is dead
Well, we need to change that - pronto - because one thing linked to the death of democracy is a lack of respect for the sanctity of life.
Extra-judicial killings and violence is normal. And that could include you.
A lot of people like the idea of a strong man leader, a leviathan who who won't be constrained by the slowness of democratic systems and will do exactly what they want.
The problem is that one is equally likely to get a strong man leader who shares none of your views and values and who hates people like you: so @Leon ends up with a Jeremy Corbyn strongman, not a Marine Le Pen one.
And, then, of course: how do you get rid of them? The messiness of democracy suddenly looks a lot less unattractive.
What I think we need, though, is to tweak our democratic system so that politicians get the message they're making a mistake quicker. The Chagos deal, for example, is liked by (as far as I can tell) Starmer and... umm... Starmer's mum.
How do we introduce feedback systems around - say EU membership, or Chagos, or shooting up immigration, so that politicians can make smaller decisions quicker (incrementalism) rather than making massive changes (often over-corrections) every four years.
54% say "don't know", and the ludicrous costs of the "deal" were not mentioned, let alone the spurious connection to far away Mauritius
Well, that’s democracy for you. You can think other people wrong, because they’re not considering the full facts of the situation or they have been misled. You can try to persuade people. But you also have to acknowledge that, for whatever reason, other people may settle on a different view to you. Maybe after public debate, the demos will swing around to your point of view, and maybe they won’t.
My point is not to defend or argue against the Chagos deal. It’s to note that rcs1000’s view that no-one likes the Chagos deal, and to use that as an example of democracy failing, is in error. Lots of people, rightly or wrongly, like the deal. I don’t disagree with rcs1000’s broader point, but for democracy to be seen to be working, we need mechanisms by which people can express their views and we need to get out of our own media bubbles.
Okay, my point is the vacuity of this kind of polling
Don’t back down Geoff, I think you were spot on first time - over 54% don’t know suggests an awful lot of people don’t feel they truly understand it, or feel they do understand it enough to not give a damn.
It is odd though, considering there has been a lot of frothy hatred of Chagos deal in the dead tree media, and absolutely no one on PB (I’m aware of) defending it, that polling keeps throwing up polls of support for Chagos Deal, and over half merely shrugging not at all worked up. From this same poll “politics” section, Conservatives are against, but only by 37% to 21% with 42% don’t know.
Before I started looking into it, I would have answered agains the deal, believing I knew enough about it to think it bad for national security and bizarre we are willing to unnecessarily pay so much good money for no good reason. Now I understand Chagos Deal inside out, my answer would still be strongly opposed to it going ahead, though for very different reasoning - my own preferred position (impossible though it is due to our ties to US defence systems) is now identical to the view Lord Dannatt expressed: just gift ownership to the US and India and walk away never to get involved again.
Gut reaction should be oppose because it don’t make any sense, going from a gut reaction to knowing what it’s really about, should also be strongly oppose, so I don’t understand why polls pick up so much support and so much indifference.
eh? "back down"? But your own take might have had much to be said for it except that we now realise that the USA (and India for that matter) may not be our steadfast allies
US, India and France have rarely shirked a chance for shafting the old colonial power UK at any point in the last 100 years. For dealing with Trump 2.0, it’s simply matter of keeping calm and steering it. As UK Prime Minister you will take decisions and act on basis Trump is just a 4 year thing, a blip.
There wasn’t much in tight US election race despite the price of eggs. If Biden stuck to his word being a bridge president, announced intention not to run in 2023 and allowed a Democratic Primary, the tight election could have been even tighter, even a different outcome.
Trumps campaign of backing away from Project 25 only to implement it from day 1, was fraudulent. he has no moral authority or popular support for anything he is doing. Even before the ruinous idiocy of Trumpnomics kicks in, we may already have passed peak power and influence from Trump 2.0.
Mug of tea. Keep calm, carry on.
We colonised France? Surely they colonised us…well the England bit anyway.
Shh. They were Norsemen. Norse Men. Who just happened to speak French and pay homage to the French throne, it's totally different, we swear.
It was because that Rollo fell out with his brother; I saw it on TV.
Rollo of Normandy is my great gggggggggggggg grandfather via my dad and his great grandfather
And mine.
In fact if Rollo has any living descendants than we all are.
1.5 million living descendants according to Google; so yeah I’m not exactly unique (tho fuck knows how Google reached that number)
The uniqueness comes from the fact I have a traceable line - via one ultra posh “cornish” family
The family seat is still there, tho the 14th century manor was rebuilt after a calamitous fire and is now an exquisite regency mansion hard by the Helford River - a gorgeous corner of Britain
It sold for several million a few years ago
One extra piquant fact - my sister, niece, mum, nephew, cousins and brand new son-of-niece (2 weeks old!) all live within 10 miles or less of where “we” lived 800 years back
Still wrong.
Everyond who lived a thousand years ago who has any European descendants today is an ancestor of every European.
Both maths and DNA evidence tell you this.
No, I’m talking about direct descendants
The claim you’re referencing relates to genealogical ancestors, not necessarily genetic ones
You're really not understanding this, are you?
Everyone in Europe today is likely a genealogical descendant of Rollo of Normandy (assuming he has living descendants, which he certainly does), but they are definitely not all direct descendants.
The distinction:
Genealogical descendant means you appear somewhere, anywhere, in their family tree. After roughly a thousand years, someone like Rollo would statistically become a common genealogical ancestor to almost everyone with European roots
Direct descendant suggests a clear, direct lineage (father to son or daughter, continuously down generations). Only a tiny subset of people today can demonstrate or trace that explicitly direct lineage back to Rollo. Someone like, say, me
There isn't any distinction, and saying the same thing in two different ways doesn't create one.
That’s unfair. I think what Leon is saying is that his family is more interbred than average ?
Comments
As I've said before on here, what does a "peace deal" look like? Do we have UN peacekeepers and a "green line" as in Cyprus with Brazilian or Ghanaian or Pakistani troops patrolling Mariupol? We could but who pays for it and what would be the point? What about the rest of the Russo-Ukrainian border?
Ultimately, the ability of Russia and Ukraine to co-exist has to be recognised (ring any bells?) and each has to recognise the other's right to exist. Once you have that, you can move forward but Putin and Zelensky have far too much invested to move from their entrenched positions.
As I've also said, the current situation suits too many important players - "something" will need to change and it will be either political (either Putin or Zelensky is removed) or military (one side or the other becomes incapable of maintaining the current stalemate). Until that happens, people will go on fighting and dying and the rest of it is all for show. Most wars end when the political or military situation changes such that the war cannot continue.
NEW THREAD
But the tide is against them. Even converted to a full war economy they can only replace a small proportion of their losses of material. Their artillery has been essential to the way that they have waged war, not just in Ukraine but elsewhere. Pulverise then occupy has been their strategy. But if you are losing 50+ artillery systems a day that becomes more and more difficult and without pulverisation the casualties of these attacks rise rapidly.
I would give Russia maybe another 6 months or so and that does not allow for a sudden collapse. No wonder they are desperately calling in their asset in the White House to help out.
Anyone with a brain cell will realise the degree of adultery and illegitimacy throughout history. And it takes just one such to break a bloodline.
I think what Leon is saying is that his family is more interbred than average ?