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The Lib Dems are carving out a strong anti Trump position – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,999


    Faytuks News
    @Faytuks
    ·
    1h
    French newspaper Le Point says that Trump is set to meet Putin in Moscow on May 9th to commemorate the end of WW2

    About time for another one I suppose.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,074
    Omnium said:

    You need to much better for the Tories than worry about the weakest of utterances of (for every fault of their own) a completely inconsequential LD party.
    We're talking about the Liberal Democrats.

    And this is the problem with the Liberal Democrats: they'd prefer that we do anything but.

    Which is why you're never going to take over the world.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,439
    Jonathan said:

    Revolutionary right wing maga style nationalism does not equal British conservatism, it’s almost as far away from it at revolutionary socialism.
    Depends when, the nationalist pro tariff Conservative Party of the late 19th and early 20th century is not far away
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,868
    edited February 21
    MattW said:

    US Public polling - Trump's actions.

    I'm surprised I can't find anything contemporaneous on the disease in the UK.

    Here is a 20 minute documentary about it's use in Australia:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0d990lauE

    (A few distressing scenes.)
    We lived in Northumberland in the 1950s ( Berwick-upon-Tweed) and I often went with my father as he visited farms throughout the county and they were dying everywhere and it was grotesque

    We used to wait by the fields as the farmers cut their crops and bludgeoned them and gave them to the public and they made a wonderful meal

    But as soon as myxomatosis arrived that ended
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,313

    About time for another one I suppose.
    That date is extremely significant and another kick in the teeth for all of Europe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,439
    kamski said:

    Protesting against restaurants not serving bacon is totally counterproductive if you want to reduce the influence of sharia 'courts'

    Why? If Muslim areas effectively become their own ghettos and mini states it will follow on a whole range of areas
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,231
    Omnium said:

    Maybe, and (in my view) that's probably true. I see little merit, and some cruelty in hounding her.
    Is she being hounded? - I mean of course she'll be upset when she reads rude comments about her here on pb.com - but she seems to have chosen to make money appearing on stages with a bunch of American far-right asshats. She's not exactly become a dignified recluse.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,383

    We're talking about the Liberal Democrats.

    And this is the problem with the Liberal Democrats: they'd prefer that we do anything but.

    Which is why you're never going to take over the world.
    I'm not a LD. Never have been. However, like you (!!!) I sort of see it as my retreat if the Tory party fold and we have the stupid trying to run things.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,439
    kle4 said:

    And start of WW3?
    Except with the US and Germany having swapped sides
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Omnium said:

    I'm reading NAM Roger's extensive three volume history at the moment. Not easy reads, but outstanding books.
    Just finished vol 1 and dipp;ing into 3 at the moment - recently bought the latter. But I'm trying not to get diverted from his Wooden Wall atm.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    Vance now arguing on X with the defence editor of the Economist about who knows more about Russian military strength in Ukr.

    Vance makes an interesting argument.

    The contention I think is Ukraine cannot win, and the only thing getting in the way of a conclusion to the war therefore is Ukraine’s (or even just Zelensky’s) selfish desire to keep defending itself.

    A foolish defence which was previously underpinned by “globalists” like Biden.

    It all follows that Zelensky is a pain and cannot be let to perpetuate the war; therefore the U.S. should remove its support and let Russia name its terms.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,074
    Omnium said:

    I'm not a LD. Never have been. However, like you (!!!) I sort of see it as my retreat if the Tory party fold and we have the stupid trying to run things.
    Fair enough, and I'd maintain my point for those who are.

    They need to have a narrative about what they stand for that commands broad electoral support rather than because they think they're the most sensible, enlightened and grown-up people in the room.

    We've seen that gong rung so many times.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,028
    kamski said:

    Is she being hounded? - I mean of course she'll be upset when she reads rude comments about her here on pb.com - but she seems to have chosen to make money appearing on stages with a bunch of American far-right asshats. She's not exactly become a dignified recluse.
    She did have something of a sense of humour failure when Led By Donkeys pulled one of their stunts on her:

    https://youtu.be/nvTtr5JfoMo?si=gTYwNaGyuNgs6wJl

    (Ironically, if disastrously, she turned out to be right in her analysis of Trump’s chances.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,377
    ...

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1893010666430116083

    NEW - Trump Job approval

    🟢 Approve 53% (+9)
    🟤 Disapprove 44%

    RMG #B - 3000 RV - 2/21

    Still not as popular as global statesman and all round nice guy Sir Keir Starmer is with the British public!





    Oh sorry I was looking at his approval ratings upside down.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,986
    edited February 21
    algarkirk said:

    It's completely legal to sell horsemeat in England, but an awful lot of butchers just don't for some reason. I wouldn't describe that as a ban.
    For me eating food is all about what my brain thinks about it.. so any slimy foods like oysters and other shellfish are out as is dog and the like just unthinkable to me

    Horse is equally unthinkable as its a domestic animal much loved by many.


    As far as the French are concerned, the only thing they don't eat is human flesh.. afaik....
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,086
    Peak Bond for those of you discussing him earlier

    https://x.com/super_shaun84/status/1892661538483220818?s=61
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,074
    Omnium said:

    I'm reading NAM Roger's extensive three volume history at the moment. Not easy reads, but outstanding books.
    They are superb. I read the same as you did about where the Navy did most of its recruiting.

    I was fairly shocked at how shit the Admiralty and the Navy were institutionally for most of the 19thC, with a terrible approach to educating, training and selecting officers, and almost no central organisation worth its salt because they took almost all their direction from central government.

    But, then again, I sort of wasn't.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,108

    We lived in Northumberland in the 1950s ( Berwick-upon-Tweed) and I often went with my father as he visited farms throughout the county and they were dying everywhere and it was grotesque

    We used to wait by the fields as the farmers cut their crops and bludgeoned them and gave them to the public and they made a wonderful meal

    But as soon as myxomatosis arrived that ended
    There's a bit of footage of rabbit drives in the vid - one quoted kills 5000 in an afternoon.

    Catch in a chicken wire enclosure, then go in with sticks.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,999
    Jonathan said:

    Revolutionary right wing maga style nationalism does not equal British conservatism, it’s almost as far away from it at revolutionary socialism.
    The journey to get there is pretty clear, money, social media backed by some traditional papers and tv news. Its going to happen unless we take them on, and that starts with recognising what the broligarchs want, not reflecting on how we are and used to be.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,074
    Taz said:

    Peak Bond for those of you discussing him earlier

    https://x.com/super_shaun84/status/1892661538483220818?s=61

    That speaks volumes.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,030
    Cicero said:

    That date is extremely significant and another kick in the teeth for all of Europe.
    I reckon we’ve got just about enough time to stick turbines in the hundreds of thousands of burial plots of allied troops, Churchill, Roosevelt, and other worthies to capture the electrical surge from the biggest spinning in graves in the history of this planet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387

    Vance now arguing on X with the defence editor of the Economist about who knows more about Russian military strength in Ukr.

    With all due respect to him, I would think the Vice President of the USA has access to better sources.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,108
    edited February 21
    "Donald Trump says France's Emmanuel Macron and UK PM Keir Starmer "haven't done anything" to end the war in Ukraine, ahead of visits from both leaders to the White House next week"

    "Trump speaks about Ukraine's President Zelensky and says: "I've been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards and you get sick of it...I've had it," he says."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn489e05k09t
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317

    Vance makes an interesting argument.

    The contention I think is Ukraine cannot win, and the only thing getting in the way of a conclusion to the war therefore is Ukraine’s (or even just Zelensky’s) selfish desire to keep defending itself.

    A foolish defence which was previously underpinned by “globalists” like Biden.

    It all follows that Zelensky is a pain and cannot be let to perpetuate the war; therefore the U.S. should remove its support and let Russia name its terms.
    I wonder, at what point, Vance was bought.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,913

    Vance makes an interesting argument.

    The contention I think is Ukraine cannot win, and the only thing getting in the way of a conclusion to the war therefore is Ukraine’s (or even just Zelensky’s) selfish desire to keep defending itself.

    A foolish defence which was previously underpinned by “globalists” like Biden.

    It all follows that Zelensky is a pain and cannot be let to perpetuate the war; therefore the U.S. should remove its support and let Russia name its terms.
    Just imagine if the stain on humanity had been President when the war started .

    I don’t have the words to describe just how much I loathe Trump and Vance .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,989

    With all due respect to him, I would think the Vice President of the USA has access to better sources.
    Maybe he does. One would hope so.

    The sources are telling him what the Economist is telling him.

    He does not want to hear it because it means the DONALD* might not be right.


    * Otherwise known as "America's Hitler". Can't recall who said this.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317
    edited February 21

    With all due respect to him, I would think the Vice President of the USA has access to better sources.
    He might, but Vance is a liar, as much as his master is.

    Vance wants a Russian victory, in Eastern Europe, because he has some hang ups about European nations.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,083

    Vance makes an interesting argument.

    The contention I think is Ukraine cannot win, and the only thing getting in the way of a conclusion to the war therefore is Ukraine’s (or even just Zelensky’s) selfish desire to keep defending itself.

    A foolish defence which was previously underpinned by “globalists” like Biden.

    It all follows that Zelensky is a pain and cannot be let to perpetuate the war; therefore the U.S. should remove its support and let Russia name its terms.
    It's a horrible conclusion but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Ukraine may not be able to win without western troops fighting on its behalf which is something that almost certainly was never going to happen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387
    Sean_F said:

    He might, but Vance is a liar, as much as his master is.

    Vance wants a Russian victory, in Eastern Europe, because he has some hang up about European nations.
    There's no evidence for the theory that Vance has some kind of Hicksville inferiority complex about Europeans.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Vance has given a speech to CPAC on masculinity.

    Has anyone worked out yet why Vance seems to wear eyeliner?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,913
    Andy_JS said:

    It's a horrible conclusion but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Ukraine may not be able to win without western troops fighting on its behalf which is something that almost certainly was never going to happen.
    It might not be able to win but it was also about trying to hold as much of the country as possible . Or should we have just let Putin take over the whole country .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,377
    ydoethur said:

    She did have something of a sense of humour failure when Led By Donkeys pulled one of their stunts on her:

    https://youtu.be/nvTtr5JfoMo?si=gTYwNaGyuNgs6wJl

    (Ironically, if disastrously, she turned out to be right in her analysis of Trump’s chances.)
    I wouldn't feel too sorry for her. She's making good money, and has started a whole conversation on economic growth that now possesses all sides of the political spectrum.

    Feel sorry for Led by Donkeys, who are incapable of targeting their flaccid centrist 'activism' at Sir Useless, as sadly he is the fruition of their cherished ambitions. Consequently they are reduced to trying to 'satirise' people who haven't been in office for three years. See also Have I Got News For You. See also most of PB.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387
    nico67 said:

    It might not be able to win but it was also about trying to hold as much of the country as possible . Or should we have just let Putin take over the whole country .
    The problem is that "we" aren't the ones dying, and the people who are currently don't have a choice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,739
    Belgium delays F-16 deliveries—Ukraine must wait for at least another year

    Despite the critical role of air support for Ukraine, Belgian defense officials cite delays in US F-35 deliveries as the main reason for postponing the transfer of F-16s

    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1893012856548762014
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,383

    They are superb. I read the same as you did about where the Navy did most of its recruiting.

    I was fairly shocked at how shit the Admiralty and the Navy were institutionally for most of the 19thC, with a terrible approach to educating, training and selecting officers, and almost no central organisation worth its salt because they took almost all their direction from central government.

    But, then again, I sort of wasn't.
    Well yes. Realism is all very well for the art folk, but it isn't so great when it arrives on your doorstep.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387

    Vance has given a speech to CPAC on masculinity.

    Has anyone worked out yet why Vance seems to wear eyeliner?

    He models himself on Andy Burnham?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,892
    Nigelb said:

    Belgium delays F-16 deliveries—Ukraine must wait for at least another year

    Despite the critical role of air support for Ukraine, Belgian defense officials cite delays in US F-35 deliveries as the main reason for postponing the transfer of F-16s

    https://x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1893012856548762014

    Another failure to appreciate where the front line is and where the battle is being fought.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,028

    There's no evidence for the theory that Vance has some kind of Hicksville inferiority complex about Europeans.
    Apart from all the things he’s saying about Europeans?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,280

    With Gabbard running intel?
    I doubt it.
    Even more pertinently Trump is rumoured to be about to dimiss a whole load of senior military officers, who are presumably in many cases the very people who brief him and Vance on the state of play in Ukraine. Highly competent, in-the-know, but too loyal to their Oaths rather than to Trump.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    MattW said:

    "Donald Trump says France's Emmanuel Macron and UK PM Keir Starmer "haven't done anything" to end the war in Ukraine, ahead of visits from both leaders to the White House next week"

    "Trump speaks about Ukraine's President Zelensky and says: "I've been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards and you get sick of it...I've had it," he says."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn489e05k09t

    He despises weakness when he sees it, it's virtually indistinguishable from a Putin comment. And this is what america wanted, gods.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387
    ydoethur said:

    Apart from all the things he’s saying about Europeans?
    I haven't heard anything that suggests he has a psychological hang up about Europe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,074
    Could be cool - I'd be interested in a London-Zurich train or a London-Cologne one.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5d6l5lz4jo
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317

    The problem is that "we" aren't the ones dying, and the people who are currently don't have a choice.
    But, Trump is making the choice for them. He wishes them to be ruled by that nice Mr. Putin.

    Trump is a traitor to his own country, and a menace to others.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Andy_JS said:

    It's a horrible conclusion but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Ukraine may not be able to win without western troops fighting on its behalf which is something that almost certainly was never going to happen.
    Actually, the point is that the US no longer wishes to support Ukraine, and is happy to let it be consumed to a lesser or greater extent.

    The U.S. sees no geopolitical advantage, and perhaps many geopolitical disadvantages, to supporting Ukraine now.

    That allowing Russia to prevail is a win for an authoritarian, anti-democratic, and anti-Western power is not thought relevant or given any weight.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,028

    I haven't heard anything that suggests he has a psychological hang up about Europe.
    Well, I suppose his Twitter account is read rather than heard, so that may technically be correct.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387

    Actually, the point is that the US no longer wishes to support Ukraine, and is happy to let it be consumed to a lesser or greater extent.

    The U.S. sees no geopolitical advantage, and perhaps many geopolitical disadvantages, to supporting Ukraine now.

    That allowing Russia to prevail is a win for an authoritarian, anti-democratic, and anti-Western power is not thought relevant or given any weight.
    Maybe it's time for Poland to offer Ukraine the equivalent of the Franco-British Union that we proposed to France.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317
    Andy_JS said:

    It's a horrible conclusion but that doesn't mean it isn't true. Ukraine may not be able to win without western troops fighting on its behalf which is something that almost certainly was never going to happen.
    Ukraine simply has to keep fighting till their enemies get sick of taking casualties. It does not have capture Moscow. That’s a strategy that plenty of smaller nations have pursued successfully (North Vietnam, for example).
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,383
    edited February 21

    Actually, the point is that the US no longer wishes to support Ukraine, and is happy to let it be consumed to a lesser or greater extent.

    The U.S. sees no geopolitical advantage, and perhaps many geopolitical disadvantages, to supporting Ukraine now.

    That allowing Russia to prevail is a win for an authoritarian, anti-democratic, and anti-Western power is not thought relevant or given any weight.
    Trump's going a bit further though. He's saying Russia wins and the US gets to be on the winning side and divide the spoils.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,892
    edited February 21
    MattW said:

    "Donald Trump says France's Emmanuel Macron and UK PM Keir Starmer "haven't done anything" to end the war in Ukraine, ahead of visits from both leaders to the White House next week"

    "Trump speaks about Ukraine's President Zelensky and says: "I've been watching him negotiate with no cards. He has no cards and you get sick of it...I've had it," he says."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn489e05k09t

    Why do boots and licking and not being fit to, come to mind?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387
    Sean_F said:

    Ukraine simply has to keep fighting till their enemies get sick of taking casualties. It does not have capture Moscow. That’s a strategy that plenty of smaller nations have pursued successfully (North Vietnam, for example).
    That's the insurgency strategy that the Biden administration was initially planning for when they thought Russia would roll over Ukraine in three days.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Vance hates Europe for the same reason that many Brexiters claim to hate the EU: that it is effete, “sclerotic”, hypocritical, and whines from behind the hem of the U.S. petticoat.

    He also thinks Europe at large has no plan for demographic decline apart from importing culturally hostile immigrants.

    It’s effectively the Leon critique, and if only Britain were somehow excluded, many of our Brexiters would vigorously agree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,028
    DavidL said:

    Why do boots and licking and not being fit to, come to mind?
    Well, some possibilities:

    Licking - that's what he forces young women to do

    Not being fit to - because he's a fat knacker with a bad diet.

    And boots - because he wears them. Jackboots, highly polished, for trampling on lesser races.

    Or there may be another meaning, of course.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317

    I haven't heard anything that suggests he has a psychological hang up about Europe.
    He doesn’t like the fact that European States are democracies that dissent from the US Republican world view.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387

    Vance hates Europe for the same reason that many Brexiters claim to hate the EU: that it is effete, “sclerotic”, hypocritical, and whines from behind the hem of the U.S. petticoat.

    He also thinks Europe at large has no plan for demographic decline apart from importing culturally hostile immigrants.

    It’s effectively the Leon critique, and if only Britain were somehow excluded, many of our Brexiters would vigorously agree.

    That's not hating Europe though. Only Europe's political elites.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,387
    Taz said:
    Wuhan? What are the chances?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,030

    Maybe it's time for Poland to offer Ukraine the equivalent of the Franco-British Union that we proposed to France.
    I think it’s time that a Poland announces that the UK and France have agreed to share nuclear weapons tech and equipment with them and for the UK and France to neither confirm nor deny.

    Might be a bluff, might not be. Works for Israel.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,074
    Bored of the Vance/Trump stuff.

    Think I'll sign off for the evening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,439
    edited February 21

    That's not hating Europe though. Only Europe's political elites.
    Vance and Trump also like the white nationalist led parts of Europe like Hungary and Russia and the anti woke Italian PM Meloni
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    boulay said:

    I think it’s time that a Poland announces that the UK and France have agreed to share nuclear weapons tech and equipment with them and for the UK and France to neither confirm nor deny.

    Might be a bluff, might not be. Works for Israel.
    Merz suggested this morning that Germany at least should be protected under an Anglo-French nuclear umbrella.
  • Could be cool - I'd be interested in a London-Zurich train or a London-Cologne one.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5d6l5lz4jo

    Talking of trains my wife and I went from Colwyn Bay to Euston for lunch two weeks ago, and in the next three weeks we are having lunch in Holyhead, Cardiff and Birmingham Airport and all back home by 6.30pm

    We love trains but these jaunts seem to amuse our family and friends - maybe we are a bit eccentric in our old age !!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317

    Vance hates Europe for the same reason that many Brexiters claim to hate the EU: that it is effete, “sclerotic”, hypocritical, and whines from behind the hem of the U.S. petticoat.

    He also thinks Europe at large has no plan for demographic decline apart from importing culturally hostile immigrants.

    It’s effectively the Leon critique, and if only Britain were somehow excluded, many of our Brexiters would vigorously agree.

    My outlook is that Vance and his clique should look to their own sins first.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,377
    Sean_F said:

    But, Trump is making the choice for them. He wishes them to be ruled by that nice Mr. Putin.

    Trump is a traitor to his own country, and a menace to others.
    Someone was always making that choice for them. Ukraine is a smaller country next to a big, aggressive one with an ingrained fear of military encirclement by the West.

    Those in Ukraine who bitterly opposed being a Russian fiefdom decided to be sponsored by the USA (and to a lesser extent the EU), who wanted to pull them out of Russia's sphere of influence. That was very much their right, but it was always going to be a change of dominant overlord, not freedom from being dominated. Ukranians aren't stupid and they would have very much known this.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,332
    Taz said:
    So... do I pull the trigger on buying 15,000 loo rolls or not?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,108
    DavidL said:

    Another failure to appreciate where the front line is and where the battle is being fought.
    The Belgian batch are 2028, so quite late in the pipeline, which should reduce impact.

    I'm slightly more worried about Musk getting his teeth into the F35 programme, which he has been talking about for some time.

    He's targeting "savings" of $65bn (8%) in year one.
    https://www.npr.org/2025/02/14/nx-s1-5297896/elon-musk-doge-pentagon-dod

  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,030

    Merz suggested this morning that Germany at least should be protected under an Anglo-French nuclear umbrella.
    Cool, so they are in for a third of the cost. Frees up our defence budget for 5000 helmets and other useful things.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,030

    Bored of the Vance/Trump stuff.

    Think I'll sign off for the evening.

    Just ‘cause they aren’t called Phoebe.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,739

    I haven't heard anything that suggests he has a psychological hang up about Europe.
    Of course you haven’t.
    I’m not sure you’ve ever heard anything bad about either him or Trump.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,913


    Faytuks News
    @Faytuks
    ·
    1h
    French newspaper Le Point says that Trump is set to meet Putin in Moscow on May 9th to commemorate the end of WW2

    OMG that surely can’t be right .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,108
    kle4 said:

    He despises weakness when he sees it, it's virtually indistinguishable from a Putin comment. And this is what america wanted, gods.
    I think it's a little different to that.

    Trump does not perceive strength and weakness - he perceives his own misconceived assumptions about strength and weakness.

    And those are quite different.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited February 21
    Noah Smith, who writes a popular economics blog, speculates that Trump etc realise that the U.S. have actually LOST the battle for technical supremacy with China (aka Cold War 2) and are therefore guided by the idea of simply dividing the world into spheres of influence: Chinese, Russian, and of course an American one - within which the U.S. can retreat into splendid isolation.

    Niall Ferguson has retweeted this thesis, calling it a “possible explanation for recent twists in Trump’s foreign policy”.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited February 21
    I regret to inform you that “Father” Calvin Robinson’s U.S. visa has been revoked.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,904

    Noah Smith, who writes a popular economics blog, speculates that Trump etc realise that the U.S. have actually LOST the battle for technical supremacy with China (aka Cold War 2) and are therefore guided by the idea of simply dividing the world into spheres of influence: Chinese, Russian, and of course an American one - within which the U.S. can retreat into splendid isolation.

    Niall Ferguson has retweeted this thesis, calling it a “possible explanation for recent twists in Trump’s foreign policy”.

    I know I bang on about Peter Zeihan, but he did predict American isolationism over a decade ago in his books, and has been adumbrating on it in his videos for years. I don't think Chinese tech supremacy is a necessary assumption, on Occam's Razor grounds if nothing else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,439
    viewcode said:

    I know I bang on about Peter Zeihan, but he did predict American isolationism over a decade ago in his books, and has been adumbrating on it in his videos for years. I don't think Chinese tech supremacy is a necessary assumption, on Occam's Razor grounds if nothing else.
    Plus most of the big tech firms globally are American
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    viewcode said:

    I know I bang on about Peter Zeihan, but he did predict American isolationism over a decade ago in his books, and has been adumbrating on it in his videos for years. I don't think Chinese tech supremacy is a necessary assumption, on Occam's Razor grounds if nothing else.
    Zeihan keeps talking about how the UK has no choice but to accept American agri-slop.

    Which is bollocks, and kind of undermines his whole oeuvre.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,892

    Ah, I see, Elliot is your grandson, not your son. I was hugely impressed at first glance by the one-day old's unconditional offer - most precocious.
    Congratulations to both.
    Yes that would be precocious indeed.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,332

    Noah Smith, who writes a popular economics blog, speculates that Trump etc realise that the U.S. have actually LOST the battle for technical supremacy with China (aka Cold War 2) and are therefore guided by the idea of simply dividing the world into spheres of influence: Chinese, Russian, and of course an American one - within which the U.S. can retreat into splendid isolation.

    Niall Ferguson has retweeted this thesis, calling it a “possible explanation for recent twists in Trump’s foreign policy”.

    I've been playing about with the idea that the US expects to fight China this summer over Taiwan. TBH, it's probably just sanewashing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,748

    It's a psychological firewall she's put around herself to protect her self-esteem.

    The alternative - confronting that she might actually be wrong- is too painful to contemplate.
    De Nile is not just a river in Africa.

    Truss is so far into denial that she is living on a houseboat on Lake Victoria.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317

    Noah Smith, who writes a popular economics blog, speculates that Trump etc realise that the U.S. have actually LOST the battle for technical supremacy with China (aka Cold War 2) and are therefore guided by the idea of simply dividing the world into spheres of influence: Chinese, Russian, and of course an American one - within which the U.S. can retreat into splendid isolation.

    Niall Ferguson has retweeted this thesis, calling it a “possible explanation for recent twists in Trump’s foreign policy”.

    Given that Trumpism is anti-intellectual, that would seem to be exacerbating that loss of supremacy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,792

    Could be cool - I'd be interested in a London-Zurich train or a London-Cologne one.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5d6l5lz4jo

    Sounds great. But wouldn't it be greater still if that plan for upgrading Liverpool to Hull (Northern Powerhouse, levelling up etc) were in place first, serving as it does one of the most densely populated parts of western Europe, including vast numbers of long suffering commuters.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,461

    Could be cool - I'd be interested in a London-Zurich train or a London-Cologne one.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5d6l5lz4jo

    Could be cool - I'd be interested in a London-Zurich train or a London-Cologne one.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5d6l5lz4jo

    I would be even more interested in a Glasgow, Edinburgh, Manchester, Newcastle or Leeds to anywhere the other side of the tunnel. Why does everyone have to go via London? If I’m flying, I avoid London. If I travel be train, why can’t I do the same.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,748
    Sean_F said:

    I wonder, at what point, Vance was bought.
    It’s not about being bought.

    In a transactionalist view of the world - "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must", is a a rational, good thing.

    Since Ukraine has “no cards”, it is moral duty of the US government (in that view) to screw them as much as they can.

    By resisting, Ukraine are being assholes. Not recognising their place in the world.

    The Russians are in the “strong” group (again according to this world view) - a nuclear power. So they have a moral duty to their own people to screw Ukraine for everything they can.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    I would be even more interested in a Glasgow, Edinburgh, Manchester, Newcastle or Leeds to anywhere the other side of the tunnel. Why does everyone have to go via London? If I’m flying, I avoid London. If I travel be train, why can’t I do the same.
    Economics and geography. London is in the way and there are lots of people there and even more who want to go there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,892

    You deserved some good fortune. I am thrilled for you.
    Thank you that's really kind.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,861

    Polling is starting to suggest that, actually, Americans don’t agree with the specific cruelties and corruptions of Trump in power.

    I don’t believe Americans support cosying up to Putin, nor the up-ending of 80 years of geopolitical strategy.
    Too late now.

    It’s not about being bought.

    In a transactionalist view of the world - "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must", is a a rational, good thing.

    Since Ukraine has “no cards”, it is moral duty of the US government (in that view) to screw them as much as they can.

    By resisting, Ukraine are being assholes. Not recognising their place in the world.

    The Russians are in the “strong” group (again according to this world view) - a nuclear power. So they have a moral duty to their own people to screw Ukraine for everything they can.
    Logical extension of Chicago school economics, Randian bollocks and libertarianism.
    Greed is good and might is right.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,965
    New Blog Post!

    One Weird Trick To Revitalize Your Economy
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-157643292
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,377
    rcs1000 said:

    New Blog Post!

    One Weird Trick To Revitalize Your Economy
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-157643292

    Sack Keir Starmer?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,383
    rcs1000 said:

    New Blog Post!

    One Weird Trick To Revitalize Your Economy
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-157643292

    "So… in my last piece I showed that US economic strength was a function of domestic demand."

    You lost me at line one.

    Suggested perhaps, certainly didn't show.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,030
    rcs1000 said:

    New Blog Post!

    One Weird Trick To Revitalize Your Economy
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-157643292

    Steal $500 billion with the threat of menaces from another vulnerable country?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,965

    The problem is that "we" aren't the ones dying, and the people who are currently don't have a choice.
    The ones who are principally dying are Russians. Surely you should be just as concerned about their losses.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,965
    Omnium said:

    "So… in my last piece I showed that US economic strength was a function of domestic demand."

    You lost me at line one.

    Suggested perhaps, certainly didn't show.
    I'm sorry to lose you Omnium... especially as you didn't get to the one weird trick.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,317
    edited February 21

    It’s not about being bought.

    In a transactionalist view of the world - "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must", is a a rational, good thing.

    Since Ukraine has “no cards”, it is moral duty of the US government (in that view) to screw them as much as they can.

    By resisting, Ukraine are being assholes. Not recognising their place in the world.

    The Russians are in the “strong” group (again according to this world view) - a nuclear power. So they have a moral duty to their own people to screw Ukraine for everything they can.
    It’s not really transactional though, for that would imply that one follows through, on one’s own commitments.

    And, it’s naively short-sighted, for it assumes that other nations won’t react accordingly. That one will never need allies, goodwill, favours that one can call in, that one does not need respect from other powers.

    It actually overestimates the USA’s strength, and certainly Russia’s.

    Let’s say we get to the point where the UK, France, Scandinavia, maybe Germany, have ramped up defence spending, what happens when the US needs help, and its former allies say “Go fuck yourself.”
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,005

    Vance makes an interesting argument.

    The contention I think is Ukraine cannot win, and the only thing getting in the way of a conclusion to the war therefore is Ukraine’s (or even just Zelensky’s) selfish desire to keep defending itself.

    A foolish defence which was previously underpinned by “globalists” like Biden.

    It all follows that Zelensky is a pain and cannot be let to perpetuate the war; therefore the U.S. should remove its support and let Russia name its terms.
    Which we know is Russian propaganda nonsense.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,904

    Zeihan keeps talking about how the UK has no choice but to accept American agri-slop.

    Which is bollocks, and kind of undermines his whole oeuvre.
    When the Eye of SaurElon lights on Keir Starmer and sends his Twitter orcs, what do you think he will do?
This discussion has been closed.