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The Lib Dems are carving out a strong anti Trump position – politicalbetting.com

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  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,541
    edited February 21
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    His entire pathology laid bare...

    @DavidShuster

    Reports in WH that an irate and humiliated Trump refuses to accept USA Hockey defeat and is claiming it was “rigged for Canada.” Something about refs allowing excess Canadian players on ice. NHL say no evidence anything would have changed outcome. Hmmm.

    Since when has Trump been interested in hockey.
    Since Hugh Grant Trudeau came out with "You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game."

    Canada 3-2 USA
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,408
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of AI, Perplexity have taken R1 and pulled all the Chinese censorship bullshit out of it. You can download it from Ollama, but you will need an absolutely *monster* setup to run it.

    Or use it via OpenRouter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,783
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:


    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    35m
    I wonder how happy the US would be, in 40 years' time, in a world in which the EU spent as high a share of its GDP as the US on its military. One should always beware of the adage: Be careful what you wish for...

    They likely won’t care

    People haven’t noticed that Trump is also massively reducing US defence spending - or trying to

    “White House eyes 8% cut to defense budget to boost Trump priorities”

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2025/02/19/white-house-eyes-8-cut-to-defense-budget-to-boost-trump-priorities/

    ALL that matters now is winning - or at least not losing - the race to AGI. Everything else is trivial

    And on that note I’m gonna return to Walter Isaacson’s excellent biography of Elon Musk

    Goodnight 😴
    Wrong.
    The 8% is likely to be redirected, not cut.

    So, for example, BMD rather than F35s.

    The chances of this being done to positive effect under the direction of Trump/Hegseth are… questionable.

    But it will certainly provide more funding to some of the billionaire startups (Anduril, for example), at the expense of some established players.
    The first country to reach AGI (let alone ASI) will have instant and humongous power over the rest of the world. All else is trivial

    Situational AWARENESS
    You seem to think AGI is a single thing. It's not.

    Computers will reach AGI in different areas at different times; in some areas they may already be there, while in others there is still a long way to go.

    And the difference between the cutting edge closed (i.e. Grok-3 or GPT 4.5) and cutting edge open (LLaMA or DeepSeek) is tiny - a matter of months at most.

    AI is a massive leveler, not something where one country achieves it and everyone else bows down to them.
    Stop projecting bullshit opinions on to me. It’s really getting quite boring
    ‘I’ve got quite enough bullshit opinions to be going on with.’
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481
    Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    >

    rcs1000 said:

    New Blog Post!

    One Weird Trick To Revitalize Your Economy
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-157643292

    I won't say encouraging an unsustainable housing boom using mortgage interest tax relief is the worst idea I've ever heard to boost an economy. Probably anything Corbyn came up with just about beat it. But it's close.

    With an asset class with constrained supply, artificially increasing demand will raise the price, so speculators will get drawn in, price rises will soon become unsustainable, you'll get a crash, millions of people will get burned, the financial system will get trashed and the economy will take half a decade or more to recover as the overhang of debt take that long to be cleared.

    Which, with a heavy dose of help from the ERM, was roughly what happened to us between about 1986 and 1993.
    You use it to break the cycle that the eurozone is in right now, where people will not spend, and therefore the economy is completely dependent on external demand.

    Giving a bunch of taxpayers' money to homeowners, however disguised, would cause a much more damaging cycle of higher house prices, an unsustainable consumption boom, then subsequent crash.

    You need to learn to think things through beyond the primary effects of policy changes. I know it needs patience and experience to do so, but it is important as the secondary effects of policy changes are often much more significant.

    If you really want to stimulate the economy by handing out lots of other people's money, at least do it so the effects are spread across the whole economy, not concentrated in one already hugely distorted and important sector.

    Cutting VAT temporarily would be a much more effective way of boosting consumer spending without dangerous effects on the housing market and financial system.
    There's a clear correlation, though, between home ownership rates and consumer spending as a percentage of GDP. People feel more secure when they own homes, and making it financially more attractive via mortgage interest tax relief is no bad thing.

    I would also point out that the US has mortgage interest tax relief, and it doesn't seem to have done anything too terrible to their economy. (You might argue it has caused house prices to rise... but it's also caused house building.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223
    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico

    I don't agree with [Paul Mason] 100% of this, but I'm north of 90% - including the intermediate nuclear options. I think it's well worth a read.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,479
    edited February 21
    Nigelb said:

    Not stirred ?

    Bond fans shaken over $1bn Amazon franchise takeover
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/feb/21/ol-bond-super-fans

    One thing is for sure, for £1bn, and with only a decade to exploit the copyright before expiry, they’re going to be pumping out a load of garbage along with anything decent they might, by some miracle, occasionally happen upon.

    I struggle to see what they could really do with it. You can do spy stuff with anyone, to maintain the brand of Bond it has to be about him and include certain elements and the interest in side stuff is probably minimal

    "Amazon presents James Bonds's friend, Felix Leiter, the TV series"?

    This guy quoted in the piece seems to be in a fantasy world where the MCU and Star Wars had not exhausted audience demand for cinematic universes and side story tie ins. If they try this it's about 5 years behind the times.

    David Zaritsky, the creator of the YouTube channel Bond Experience, said: “Many fear that they’re going to take the films to online streaming et cetera. I don’t think that’s going to happen. What I think they could do is create satellite mini-franchises around the characters, a series about Moneypenny, a series about Q that feeds into the movies every two years, for example.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,481
    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of AI, Perplexity have taken R1 and pulled all the Chinese censorship bullshit out of it. You can download it from Ollama, but you will need an absolutely *monster* setup to run it.

    Or use it via OpenRouter.
    Wow: OpenRouter has come on a *long* way.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,408
    rcs1000 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of AI, Perplexity have taken R1 and pulled all the Chinese censorship bullshit out of it. You can download it from Ollama, but you will need an absolutely *monster* setup to run it.

    Or use it via OpenRouter.
    Wow: OpenRouter has come on a *long* way.
    Yeah - it's very useful now. Quite a few 3rd party apps have it as their backend. See also replicate.com .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DOGE efficiency.

    CSPAN Caller from West Virginia: I’m a diabetic and I’m on Medicare. When Biden was in there, my insulin was $6 for a 28 day supply. I just went to CVS, it went back up to $80…
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1893021979919159722

    Trump voter?
    Who knows ?
    Plenty of such folk will be.

    The point is, if there are free elections over the next four years, Congress at least is unlikely to stay Republican controlled.
    If doing Atlas levels of lifting there.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,408
    edited February 21
    ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Paul Mason calling for increased defence spending isn't something you would have predicted 10 years ago.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,175
    Robert - If you are interested in revitalizing the UK economy, let me suggest you learn from the example of Levittown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown,_New_York
    Note that it was "semi-manufactured".

    In principle, the UK -- and the US -- could have better, and cheaper, housing for most by moving toward manufactured housing. The money saved could be used for investment in factories, research, education and, in the US, better security for "marginalized" people.

    Is this politically possible? I think so, if done in the right way, begining with an experimental community having a variety of homes from different manufacturers.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,169

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.
    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Trouble is that unless it has changed since reported yesterday Starmer is going to announce a firm commitment to 2.5% by 2030, and 3.0% in 2035. Ten flipping years, as though Putin will let us get a head start.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,953

    Robert - If you are interested in revitalizing the UK economy, let me suggest you learn from the example of Levittown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown,_New_York
    Note that it was "semi-manufactured".

    In principle, the UK -- and the US -- could have better, and cheaper, housing for most by moving toward manufactured housing. The money saved could be used for investment in factories, research, education and, in the US, better security for "marginalized" people.

    Is this politically possible? I think so, if done in the right way, begining with an experimental community having a variety of homes from different manufacturers.

    The problems of house building are a long, long way from *how* to build them.

    We could massively increase construction rates before running into issues of materials or labour.

    The issue is actually getting the building started.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    Sky News paper reviewer just described Kemi Badenoch as "explicitly racist". Zoe Williams of the Guardian.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,578

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DOGE efficiency.

    CSPAN Caller from West Virginia: I’m a diabetic and I’m on Medicare. When Biden was in there, my insulin was $6 for a 28 day supply. I just went to CVS, it went back up to $80…
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1893021979919159722

    Trump voter?
    Who knows ?
    Plenty of such folk will be.

    The point is, if there are free elections over the next four years, Congress at least is unlikely to stay Republican controlled.
    If doing Atlas levels of lifting there.
    I still have faith that a significant majority of Americans have belief in constitutional democracy. The events underway in America today will resonate for quite some while.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    These numbers are untethered from what is actually required.

    I am not at all a defence expert, and for all know 2.5% is sufficient for our propose.

    We need an expedited SDR.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,479
    glw said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.
    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Trouble is that unless it has changed since reported yesterday Starmer is going to announce a firm commitment to 2.5% by 2030, and 3.0% in 2035. Ten flipping years, as though Putin will let us get a head start.
    Given all the competing demands and political expectations I shudder to think what would be required to achieve an increase of 1% GDP on defence in a very short time, if we even could.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,806

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    :lol:
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,607

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DOGE efficiency.

    CSPAN Caller from West Virginia: I’m a diabetic and I’m on Medicare. When Biden was in there, my insulin was $6 for a 28 day supply. I just went to CVS, it went back up to $80…
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1893021979919159722

    Trump voter?
    Who knows ?
    Plenty of such folk will be.

    The point is, if there are free elections over the next four years, Congress at least is unlikely to stay Republican controlled.
    If doing Atlas levels of lifting there.
    I still have faith that a significant majority of Americans have belief in constitutional democracy. The events underway in America today will resonate for quite some while.
    If they cared that much they wouldn’t have voted for Trump again .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,593

    These numbers are untethered from what is actually required.

    I am not at all a defence expert, and for all know 2.5% is sufficient for our propose.

    We need an expedited SDR.

    The focus on spending rather than capabilities is a problem. It's not like saving for a rainy day.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,169
    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.
    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Trouble is that unless it has changed since reported yesterday Starmer is going to announce a firm commitment to 2.5% by 2030, and 3.0% in 2035. Ten flipping years, as though Putin will let us get a head start.
    Given all the competing demands and political expectations I shudder to think what would be required to achieve an increase of 1% GDP on defence in a very short time, if we even could.
    We had no trouble magicing money out of thin air for Covid. We face a potentially worse threat than that. We need to go a hell of a lot faster than what Starmer was apparently planning for.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223

    Pete Buttigieg
    @PeteButtigieg
    ·
    1h
    A defining policy battle is about to come to a head in this country. The Republican budget will force everyone - especially Congress and the White House - to make plain whether they are prepared to harm the rest of us in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest.

    https://x.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1893062544362762326
  • glwglw Posts: 10,169


    Pete Buttigieg
    @PeteButtigieg
    ·
    1h
    A defining policy battle is about to come to a head in this country. The Republican budget will force everyone - especially Congress and the White House - to make plain whether they are prepared to harm the rest of us in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest.

    https://x.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1893062544362762326

    They made that plain when he got the nomination again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223
    edited February 21
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.
    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Trouble is that unless it has changed since reported yesterday Starmer is going to announce a firm commitment to 2.5% by 2030, and 3.0% in 2035. Ten flipping years, as though Putin will let us get a head start.
    Given all the competing demands and political expectations I shudder to think what would be required to achieve an increase of 1% GDP on defence in a very short time, if we even could.
    We had no trouble magicing money out of thin air for Covid. We face a potentially worse threat than that. We need to go a hell of a lot faster than what Starmer was apparently planning for.
    Defence bonds. War bonds. Some guys in Times were arguing other day for some kind of european wide defence bank that would use fractional banking to get money into rearming.

    There's ways.

    Keynes: 'Anything we can actually do, we can afford.'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,578


    Pete Buttigieg
    @PeteButtigieg
    ·
    1h
    A defining policy battle is about to come to a head in this country. The Republican budget will force everyone - especially Congress and the White House - to make plain whether they are prepared to harm the rest of us in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest.

    https://x.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1893062544362762326

    Pete is looking a better and better Presidential candidate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,479
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News paper reviewer just described Kemi Badenoch as "explicitly racist". Zoe Williams of the Guardian.

    Who is she supposed to have been racist towards?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,479

    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.
    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Trouble is that unless it has changed since reported yesterday Starmer is going to announce a firm commitment to 2.5% by 2030, and 3.0% in 2035. Ten flipping years, as though Putin will let us get a head start.
    Given all the competing demands and political expectations I shudder to think what would be required to achieve an increase of 1% GDP on defence in a very short time, if we even could.
    We had no trouble magicing money out of thin air for Covid. We face a potentially worse threat than that. We need to go a hell of a lot faster than what Starmer was apparently planning for.
    Defence bonds. War bonds. Some guys in Times were arguing other day for some kind of european wide defence bank that would use fractional banking to get money into rearming.

    There's ways.

    Keynes: 'Anything we can actually do, we can afford.'
    Anything that's politically easy? If not forget it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,641
    "French far-right leader cancels speech, accusing Steve Bannon of 'Nazi' gesture"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2glydm3gmo
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,112


    Pete Buttigieg
    @PeteButtigieg
    ·
    1h
    A defining policy battle is about to come to a head in this country. The Republican budget will force everyone - especially Congress and the White House - to make plain whether they are prepared to harm the rest of us in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest.

    https://x.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1893062544362762326

    Pete is looking a better and better Presidential candidate.
    Do you lever learn ?

    He was mediocre in government and one of the liars who said that Biden was good for another four years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,901
    edited 12:23AM
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News paper reviewer just described Kemi Badenoch as "explicitly racist". Zoe Williams of the Guardian.

    What happened to the left media position that people of colour couldn't be racist cos...People of colour being overtly very Conservative seems to send some off the deep end.

    Criticism of Kemi is very easy, she is just isn't up to the job, without going anywhere near she is a racialist.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223

    Kyle Cheney
    @kyledcheney
    MORE NEWS: A federal judge has granted an even more extensive block of DOGE's access to Treasury systems, saying there is a "realistic danger" that the "rushed" process to access sensitive payment systems has compromised data.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,901
    Well little rocket man will be able to buy himself something nice this weekend,

    LAZARUS GROUP hacked $1bn from Cryto exchange Bybit.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,681
    Andy_JS said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Paul Mason calling for increased defence spending isn't something you would have predicted 10 years ago.
    The world has changed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223
    Has Trump any idea what he has unleashed on US health system?

    I doubt his donors from big pharm and food processing wanted to hear what this guy is planning.

    A lot of it will be Cranksville, AZ but the obesity epidemic and the use of fructose etc in foods... could get interesting.



    Secretary Kennedy

    @SecKennedy
    ·
    1h
    No stone will be left unturned in our effort to end chronic disease. The health of our children is a higher calling for all of us. Watch my message to America and join me in this effort to Make America Healthy Again.

    https://x.com/SecKennedy/status/1893078876135235996
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223

    Andy_JS said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Paul Mason calling for increased defence spending isn't something you would have predicted 10 years ago.
    The world has changed.
    Not half.

    Who had the veep of the US jetting into Munich to tell Europe to fuck off and to not bleat too much whilst fucking off on their bingo cards?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,901
    edited 12:39AM

    Andy_JS said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Paul Mason calling for increased defence spending isn't something you would have predicted 10 years ago.
    The world has changed.
    Not half.

    Who had the veep of the US jetting into Munich to tell Europe to fuck off and to not bleat too much whilst fucking off on their bingo cards?
    Can we go back to a world where the most important news item that the chancellor had a Bryon burger for dinner.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,223

    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    1h
    Jordan Bardella, the president of France’s hard right National Rally, has cancelled his plans to speak at CPAC after Steve Bannon “proactively made a gesture referring to Nazi ideology.”

    In other words, Bannon and CPAC are now too extreme for the French extreme right.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,252
    A modern day protectorate.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    Speculation is rising again that Trump is actually some kind of Russian agent (allegedly with the code name “Krasnov”).

    It was even suggested by Scaramucci in this morning’s Rest Is Politics America, and he said he’d speculated with another very senior former Trump 1 staffer (McMaster? Kelly? Mattis?) about it.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,733
    Yeah, a load of posts on Reddit on just that topic were deleted without prejudice yesterday.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    (Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
  • Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    That is a very solid take on the current situation, I find myself in the astounding position of agreeing with Mason almost completely. The world as we knew it is gone.

    Europe is surrounded by wolves and we need to start sharpening spears to fight them off.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,901
    edited 1:44AM

    Speculation is rising again that Trump is actually some kind of Russian agent (allegedly with the code name “Krasnov”).

    It was even suggested by Scaramucci in this morning’s Rest Is Politics America, and he said he’d speculated with another very senior former Trump 1 staffer (McMaster? Kelly? Mattis?) about it.

    Its based on a single random Facebook post.

    It just doesn't pass the smell test. Firstly, Trump has been POTUS / running for POTUS for 10+ years, if there was smoking gun on this it would have been stood up by now to remove him from the field of play. Democrats have had control of the government for 6 years of that time so ample opportunity for the evidence to come to light. Second, Trump as an agent, he is incredibly ill suited for such a roll, he is so wild, so unpredictable, so loud, its everything you don't want in a foreign asset. Its like the stuff about Corbyn being an agent doesn't ring true. You want your Manchurian candidate asset to be much more subtle in how they operate, such they work towards your goals but in a way that isn't put in flashing neon lights.

    The Occam Razor explanation for Trump, is Trump only cares about Trump. He gets a deal, he gets rare earth minerals, he claims looks at me I am the only one who could get a deal. Screwing over Ukraine in the meantime, well that's the art of the deal baby....its just like he has done business forever. As long as Trump can claim he has won, the reality of the situation doesn't matter.

    The crap he comes out with, some is trolling, some is because he never reads anything and checks it up, he just looks at twitter and splurts it out e.g. the twitter nonsense about the big Z being a dictator because he banned some political parties because they are Russian friendly and no elections because of an ongoing war. but lots of dodgy tweets not giving the context.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,901
    edited 1:47AM

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    That is a very solid take on the current situation, I find myself in the astounding position of agreeing with Mason almost completely. The world as we knew it is gone.

    Europe is surrounded by wolves and we need to start sharpening spears to fight them off.
    Mason takes after the financial crisis were quite good up to a point. Then he went from left of centre to full on Corbynista, how much because he thought that was a route for himself getting involved in government and how much he believes it I don't know. But Team Corbyn never really embraced him, he was always on the outside.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been fired.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,901
    edited 2:22AM

    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been fired.

    It was always coming. Hegseth said he wanted to get rid of him before the election. It pretty clear, anybody who has ever uttered stuff positively about DEI and BLM, this administration are going to sack.

    They are going to end up like the first time around sacking people all the time and the revolving door will mean the government just doesn't operate very well as they pick / keep people based solely on allegiance to the king.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 725
    If Britain wants to increase its defence spending it should do it in conjunction with a realistic threat assessment. Which should be based on defence of Europe - not some barren islands the other side of the world. Forget vanity projects based on dreams of empire....... Sell the pointless aircraft carriers... rethink Trident. Keep bases in Cyprus - sell off Ascencion Islands..

    Then establish fast reaction mobile forces....fight Ukraine2 not Singapore....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,914
    edited 3:57AM
    Meanwhile, down under, China has sent naval ships into a live fire training exercise in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand.

    Yesterday flights had to be diverted when commercial pilots were warned to avoid airspace between Australia and New Zealand after Chinese vessels conducted drills around 340 nautical miles south-east of Sydney in international waters.

    Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles told the ABC that planes were "literally flying across the Tasman" as China began its exercises and forced to rapidly divert.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,901
    edited 4:22AM
    Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti were removed from her positions late Friday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,829
    So the war outcome is that the minerals go to the USA and Kyiv's eternal thanks to the UK ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,366
    Russian links to drone sightings over UK air bases probed
    https://inews.co.uk/news/russian-links-drone-sightings-uk-air-base-3542584
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,366

    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been fired.

    Very woke – we saw him on The West Wing defending gay soldiers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,184


    Pete Buttigieg
    @PeteButtigieg
    ·
    1h
    A defining policy battle is about to come to a head in this country. The Republican budget will force everyone - especially Congress and the White House - to make plain whether they are prepared to harm the rest of us in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest.

    https://x.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1893062544362762326

    Pete is looking a better and better Presidential candidate.
    Do you lever learn ?

    He was mediocre in government and one of the liars who said that Biden was good for another four years.
    Mediocre would be a massive step up from malignant, and that is what they have at present.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,366
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News paper reviewer just described Kemi Badenoch as "explicitly racist". Zoe Williams of the Guardian.

    I've just watched it and Kemi was not mentioned so either it has been edited out or it's those pesky Russian trolls again.
    https://news.sky.com/story/saturdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,578
    Pulpstar said:

    So the war outcome is that the minerals go to the USA and Kyiv's eternal thanks to the UK ?
    And Russia's eternal tanks?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited 5:53AM
    ..
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not stirred ?

    Bond fans shaken over $1bn Amazon franchise takeover
    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2025/feb/21/ol-bond-super-fans

    One thing is for sure, for £1bn, and with only a decade to exploit the copyright before expiry, they’re going to be pumping out a load of garbage along with anything decent they might, by some miracle, occasionally happen upon.

    I struggle to see what they could really do with it. You can do spy stuff with anyone, to maintain the brand of Bond it has to be about him and include certain elements and the interest in side stuff is probably minimal

    "Amazon presents James Bonds's friend, Felix Leiter, the TV series"?

    This guy quoted in the piece seems to be in a fantasy world where the MCU and Star Wars had not exhausted audience demand for cinematic universes and side story tie ins. If they try this it's about 5 years behind the times.

    David Zaritsky, the creator of the YouTube channel Bond Experience, said: “Many fear that they’re going to take the films to online streaming et cetera. I don’t think that’s going to happen. What I think they could do is create satellite mini-franchises around the characters, a series about Moneypenny, a series about Q that feeds into the movies every two years, for example.
    I wonder if the Disney "protect Mickey Mouse by making him a Trademark" strategy could have application to Bond, James Bond. *

    * I predict Bond branded tea.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,578

    (Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

    As I predicted...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited 5:59AM
    My trivia prediction for the next month.

    Black Belt Barrister will pivot back to detailed legal questions, and away from pursuing the Reform UK agenda. He won't leave Mr Starmer alone but will pipe down the tilts at windmills; that would look too obvious.

    Driver: Reform UK being chaotic and having lots of factions, and BBB has background in teaching martial arts to the armed forces.

    But he's a lawyer, so it will all be smooth and profitable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,202
    Good morning, everyone.

    Just about a week (and maybe a day or two) until testing's done and I'll post a review of it. In the meantime there's an interesting split. Alpine are playing things safe, Aston Martin have redesigned a lot, and Haas are sticking with Ferrari's previous suspension arrangement, which is certainly a confident/brave call.

    https://undercutters.podbean.com/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,151
    edited 6:27AM
    glw said:


    Pete Buttigieg
    @PeteButtigieg
    ·
    1h
    A defining policy battle is about to come to a head in this country. The Republican budget will force everyone - especially Congress and the White House - to make plain whether they are prepared to harm the rest of us in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest.

    https://x.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1893062544362762326

    They made that plain when he got the nomination again.
    Yes, but it’s not a prediction competition now, so much as a fight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,151

    (Reuters) - U.S. negotiators pressing Kyiv for access to Ukraine's critical minerals have raised the possibility of cutting the country's access to Elon Musk's vital Starlink satellite internet system, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

    As I predicted...
    Yes, we’ve moved on to direct extortion now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,151
    edited 6:36AM

    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been fired.

    New guy is Air Force: Kuwait, Iraq, counter-terrorism, special ops, White House, and CIA.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Caine

    Hugely under qualified for the promotion - he’ll need a waiver for that - and here’s a not scary at all detail of how Trump thinks of him.
    According to Trump, General Dan Caine, the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told Trump: "I love you, sir. I think you’re great, sir. I’ll kill for you, sir."
    https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1893142447057723493


  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,202
    Hmm. I see Trump's fired his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Probably guilty of independent thought.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited 6:36AM

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.

    Agree - Paul Mason was strong in support of Ukraine right from the time of the invasion. He did a tour of the country with groups from Trades Unions etc in mid-February 2022, and wrote a piece in the New Statesman the day after the invasion.

    It also covers his presence and Maidan, and thoughts about the wider situation in Europe. One of his grandparents was from Lithuania. He has had great clarity.

    https://archive.is/20220222121124/https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/02/the-left-must-stand-with-ukraine-against-putins-aggression

    Everyone I’ve met here – from the human rights workers, the left-wing social activists, the feminist groups, the independent trade unions – and, yes, the MPs from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s political coalition “Servants of the People” – simply wants the right to live in a European-style democracy. One in which you can form an NGO, take the government to court, run an opposition newspaper and call a demonstration or a strike without getting arrested.

    And that’s what this crisis is about. Does Ukraine – a country that’s been formally constituted since 1919, albeit for decades as part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, have the right to choose its own destiny?


    Also, this was April 2022:
    A conversation with young Ukrainian leaders

    https://www.aspenuk.org/events/a-conversation-with-young-ukrainian-leaders/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,202
    Nigelb said:

    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been fired.

    New guy is Air Force: Kuwait, Iraq, counter-terrorism, special ops, White House, and CIA.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Caine

    Hugely under qualified for the promotion - he’ll need a waiver for that - and here’s a not scary at all detail of how Trump thinks of him.
    According to Trump, General Dan Caine, the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told Trump: "I love you, sir. I think you’re great, sir. I’ll kill for you, sir."
    https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1893142447057723493


    Sounds like a right cult.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 388

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.


    But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
    The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
    Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Let's get the Covid purchasing team back together. They did a great job the last time. Ably supported by the MOD team.

    /sarcasm off.

    The objective is clear - a stable Europe - but getting there needs a lot more than a rush to spend.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,151

    Nigelb said:

    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been fired.

    New guy is Air Force: Kuwait, Iraq, counter-terrorism, special ops, White House, and CIA.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Caine

    Hugely under qualified for the promotion - he’ll need a waiver for that - and here’s a not scary at all detail of how Trump thinks of him.
    According to Trump, General Dan Caine, the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told Trump: "I love you, sir. I think you’re great, sir. I’ll kill for you, sir."
    https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1893142447057723493


    Sounds like a right cult.
    Actually recently retired from the service.
    .. Oddly, Caine was installed last month at 3 VC firms doing crypto, AI, and defense tech, including Thrive, founded by Jared Kushner's brother.
    https://x.com/capitolhunters/status/1893139120253255997
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,184

    Hmm. I see Trump's fired his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Probably guilty of independent thought.

    Or of being Black...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,151

    Hmm. I see Trump's fired his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Probably guilty of independent thought.

    And the Judges Advocate General for three branches of the military, who might be guilty of intent to question the legality of future orders.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,233
    edited 7:06AM
    Mr Anderson says Reform now have 400 branches.

    The Nigel is still quite well protected from insurrections:

    In a statement posted on social media, Yusuf said: "We are pleased to announce that, as promised, Nigel Farage has handed over ownership of Reform UK to its members.

    "Reform UK is now a non-profit, with no shareholders, limited by guarantee.
    ...
    Under Reform's new constitution, which was agreed at the party's conference in September, members can remove their leader in a no-confidence vote, triggered if 50% of them write to the chairman requesting one.

    Reform MPs can also force a vote if 50 of them, or 50% of them, request one. But this only applies if there are more than 100 Reform MPs in Parliament and the party currently only has five.

    Under the constitution, only three members of the party's board would be elected, with the remainder made up of the leader and chairman and other members chosen by the leader.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgdlv56y2wo
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,186

    Nigelb said:

    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has been fired.

    New guy is Air Force: Kuwait, Iraq, counter-terrorism, special ops, White House, and CIA.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Caine

    Hugely under qualified for the promotion - he’ll need a waiver for that - and here’s a not scary at all detail of how Trump thinks of him.
    According to Trump, General Dan Caine, the new Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told Trump: "I love you, sir. I think you’re great, sir. I’ll kill for you, sir."
    https://x.com/CalltoActivism/status/1893142447057723493


    Sounds like a right cult.
    Typo?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,001

    NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,505
    glw said:

    Fucking superb from Paul Mason.


    The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.
    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/1893052988513571132

    Trouble is that unless it has changed since reported yesterday Starmer is going to announce a firm commitment to 2.5% by 2030, and 3.0% in 2035. Ten flipping years, as though Putin will let us get a head start.
    Putin has a lot of kit to replace himself, tbf. But you are right that this timescale gives no sense of urgency.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,815

    Robert - If you are interested in revitalizing the UK economy, let me suggest you learn from the example of Levittown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levittown,_New_York
    Note that it was "semi-manufactured".

    In principle, the UK -- and the US -- could have better, and cheaper, housing for most by moving toward manufactured housing. The money saved could be used for investment in factories, research, education and, in the US, better security for "marginalized" people.

    Is this politically possible? I think so, if done in the right way, begining with an experimental community having a variety of homes from different manufacturers.

    The problems of house building are a long, long way from *how* to build them.

    We could massively increase construction rates before running into issues of materials or labour.

    The issue is actually getting the building started.
    I thought we were already running into issues of materials and labour even at the rates we are currently building?
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 221
    edited 9:20AM

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    New Blog Post!

    One Weird Trick To Revitalize Your Economy
    https://substack.com/home/post/p-157643292

    "So… in my last piece I showed that US economic strength was a function of domestic demand."

    You lost me at line one.

    Suggested perhaps, certainly didn't show.
    I'm sorry to lose you Omnium... especially as you didn't get to the one weird trick.
    The problem with this "trick" is that if the problem in your economy is excessive consumption and insufficient investment then a policy that gives rise to capital gains on non-economic assets such as housing simply aggravates the problem by encouraging yet more consumption.

    So, such a policy might well make sense for Germany which has had excessive saving for a long time but it makes no sense whatsoever for either the UK or the US. What we both need is a gentle deflation of our housing bubbles which encourages people to save in other ways rather than relying upon the inflation of their major asset, thus increasing the capital available for investment in production rather than consumption.

    We have excess consumption in this country and have had for nearly 30 years now, hence our continuous trade deficit. The last thing we want to do is increase it further by inflating the housing market which already has major secondary effects in reducing job mobility and the creation of hubs with sufficient skills to encourage rapid growth. We need the opposite and if that puts even further pressure on countries dependent upon external demand, like Germany, to increase domestic demand, we just might be doing them a favour.
    We don’t have excess consumption. We have insufficient production.
    So we need to invest more to increase production to match our consumption. But you really can't spend the same money twice. You either spend it on imports that have been produced elsewhere or you invest it creating future production. We need a lot more of the latter and less of the former, at least in the short term.
    You don't need to invest to increase production. You get your foot off businesses' throats and they increase production for you.
    I am not suggesting that the government invests. I am suggesting our economy invests. Businesses will, in large part, be able to increase output if they have access to affordable capital. That requires a pool of savings.
    Oh good. I was imagining a future full of DavidL inspired Humber Bridges.
    We need to build houses until investing in house construction gets you an OK-average return. Not a guaranteed rate of return.

    Aside from minor things like enriching the low paid/rental class - who could then afford avocado on toast - this would move a river if investment money towards other things. As part of an expanded economy.

    At the moment we have a version of the Resource Curse, we have built for ourselves.

    Our planning system insists that house building makes a 17% profit. They apparently have a right to that.

    IMO. It’s not helping.




    Edited for poor quote hygiene
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,872

    Meanwhile, down under, China has sent naval ships into a live fire training exercise in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand.

    Yesterday flights had to be diverted when commercial pilots were warned to avoid airspace between Australia and New Zealand after Chinese vessels conducted drills around 340 nautical miles south-east of Sydney in international waters.

    Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles told the ABC that planes were "literally flying across the Tasman" as China began its exercises and forced to rapidly divert.

    That's scary, and very aggressive.
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