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If voters don't like the cost of increasing defence spending they'll hate the cost of inaction even

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,781

    You should be in the Lib Dems. :)
    We always like to see a bit if Lab > Lib shade being thrown! 😂
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 130
    edited February 18

    Me too. I like him a lot. Pope Benedict apparently did his unprecedented retirement so that someone could come in and decorrupt the Vatican. Francis seems a very moral Pope, though I don't agree with him about everything. Health and long life to him.
    He's been the best Pope since maybe forever.

    Note to self: find out the Jesuit position on AI.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    India has always had a very close (post colonial) relationship with Russia, and seems to much prefer them to us (perhaps for understandable reasons). This was the case when they were a communist dictatorship, so there's not much reason why it would have changed now they're an authoritarian state with the remnants of a democracy.

    In my opinion we need to be a good deal less starry-eyed about India. They do not wish us well. We should at the very least not be trying to exercise 'soft power' by hosing aid money at them when they have a space programme. The same goes for China.
    We don't hose aid money at India.

    "The British Government stopped providing traditional development aid to India in 2015. Most UK funding to India is in the form of investments in priority areas like climate change. These investments have the dual aims of supporting development and backing private enterprises with the potential to be commercially viable, creating new partners, markets and jobs for the UK as well as India. They also generate returns which the British Government can reinvest in India or elsewhere. To date we have invested £330 million and over £100 million has been returned. We expect to get all our investments back over time."

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2023-12-18.7344.h#:~:text=The British Government stopped providing,priority areas like climate change.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    viewcode said:

    Indeed. Famously India did not sympathise with the UK over Salisbury.
    The political choices in India come down to Hindu Nationalism (anti-Muslim, anti-British, and anti-much else) or Congress style Socialism (non-aligned, left-wing and Russia sympathising).

    I really don't hold out much hope for any sort of allyship from it. The old time they would is to check Chinese expansion if it directly impinged their interests or borders.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    eek said:

    How about https://www.nuclearinfo.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/A_state_in_denial_Britains_WMD_dependency_on_the_United_States_2008.pdf

    The point of an independent military
    force is to underpin national
    sovereignty and the ability to support
    the power of a nation-state. But in
    contrast to the other major nuclear
    powers, the United Kingdom has no
    independence of procurement and
    great difficulty even in the short-term
    in using the system it has procured
    from the United States.

    Also see what happens when you click the link to the USA confirmation on this page https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10086/
    None of that contradicts what I wrote.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    edited February 18
    Elon has got his hands around Grok-3s balls

    https://bsky.app/profile/bcmerchant.bsky.social/post/3lihq2tc2wk2a
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,045
    Winchy said:

    He's been the best Pope since maybe forever.

    Note to self: find out the Jesuit position on AI.
    As long as the AI dies with the name of Jesus on its screen, then it goes to heaven.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    viewcode said:

    Yes, but at what cost? The UK's defence posture would instantly collapse to protecting the Home Islands and Atlantic possessions like Gib and Falklands. Russia would start picking off the border nations, and the peace engineered for 80 years would disappear.
    I don't want to withdraw from Five Eyes.

    There's a huge amount of intelligence sharing that goes on, particularly between us and the US, and the other nations give great satellite and telecommunications coverage. It's also one where the UK really does bring something to the table with GCHQ, MI6, its interception stations and special forces.

    It will just have to be more carefully managed under this administration.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,564
    rcs1000 said:

    As long as the AI dies with the name of Jesus on its screen, then it goes to heaven.
    Somewhat related, this TV show seemed to fly under the radar somewhat :

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14759574/

    "Sister Simone partners with her ex-boyfriend Wiley on a globe-spanning journey to destroy Mrs. Davis, a powerful artificial intelligence."

    It's really rather well written and acted. Rather won me over as it went on.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes: we do need a defence pact outside of the EU.

    It needs, I think we'd all agree, to include Norway, Iceland and us, for a start. Plus, for the reasons you outlined, we don't probably don't want Hungary to be a part.

    The question is this: do we want to completely cut ties with the US? That is, is the current Trump administration an aberration, and if the European countries step up and put the spending in, then NATO continues? Or is that it? Is NATO effectively over?

    Two months ago, I would have said "tough it out, America is ultimately our friend", but the problem is that the current administration doesn't think in terms of long term allies, it thinks transactionally here and now. And the cost to remaining in its orbit is likely to rise and rise.

    For that reason, I fear we do need to start thinking beyond NATO.
    We need to be prepared to go further if necessary, and be prepared to stand up to Trump if he threatens us.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, moving beyond NATO feels necessary now. We can't rely on America to secure Europe's borders. This has been true for 20 years but until now it hasn't meant anything because we didn't have America negotiating away our security to a despot. The ExCo of the UK, France and Poland should be at the head of the table against Putin with Ukraine also present and if we had raised defence spending to 4% in 2014 when Obama effectively opted out of NATO and Trump very bluntly told us to increase spending that would be the case.

    We also need more restrictive military buying policies and start excluding Germany and other unreliable nations from supply chains if they want final say over the use of purchased armaments. I also think a policy change to prefer domestic suppliers and rebuilding supply chains within the UK and specific allies (maybe including the US) is necessary.

    There is a lot of hard work to be done and not a lot of time to do it but we need to start now.
    Screw Germany. They are worse than useless.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    MaxPB said:

    Europe yes, but not the EU. A defence pact needs to happen outside of the EU or anywhere near it because needing unanimity of 28 countries (27 in the EU plus the UK) would be impossible and Russia would use its acolytes like Orban to block any action and manipulate election results in Eastern Bloc nations to put Putin placemen into government. The EU is most susceptible to Russian manipulation because it requires unanimity in decision making for foreign policy.

    We need to bilateral and multilateral treaties outside of the scope of the EU or a defence pact to replace NATO won't work.
    But your fundamental basis for this argument is that we need to control what happens on the continent of Europe. Put simply, we don't. We are blessed to be separated from the continent by 'a silver sea' that makes us independent. That goes for military as well as political entanglements. We consistently fail to take advantage of the situation that fate has given us.

    We have been here before when Britain spent its blood and a fortune fighting in the wars of the Spanish succession. The same people would have been around then, demanding that it was the only patriotic option to fight, and that those against it were allowing the hated French to control the continent. It was only when we stopped that nonsense and instead invested in naval force that we became a great power. Incidentally, Europe then also sorted itself out (for a while at least).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612

    India has always had a very close (post colonial) relationship with Russia, and seems to much prefer them to us (perhaps for understandable reasons). This was the case when they were a communist dictatorship, so there's not much reason why it would have changed now they're an authoritarian state with the remnants of a democracy.

    In my opinion we need to be a good deal less starry-eyed about India. They do not wish us well. We should at the very least not be trying to exercise 'soft power' by hosing aid money at them when they have a space programme. The same goes for China.
    They are both authoritarian states with the remnants of a democracy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,781
    edited February 18

    In other news, Pope Francis is ill.

    I've disagreed with him on some things, and been infuriated by others. But on the whole I think he's been a reasonable pope, and better than his last few predecessors.

    Regardless of all that, I hope he recovers soon.

    Hopefully Pope Francis recovers but if not it's always fascinating to see the "Conclave" and the white smoke.

    I've long thought the Conservative Party should deploy the grey/white smoke trick for their seemingly never ending, insufferable leadership contests... 😂
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    We need to be prepared to go further if necessary, and be prepared to stand up to Trump if he threatens us.
    I think the only thing he will understand is a straight up choice between democratic European nations and despotic ones. Fundamentally Trump responds to strength so refusing his capitulation, supporting Ukraine and telling Trump that European countries will continue and step up sanctions against Russia despite his "deal" is the only way forwards. If the US has opted out of European security that's not great but that also means the US doesn't get to dictate our security to us.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487

    The political choices in India come down to Hindu Nationalism (anti-Muslim, anti-British, and anti-much else) or Congress style Socialism (non-aligned, left-wing and Russia sympathising).

    I really don't hold out much hope for any sort of allyship from it. The old time they would is to check Chinese expansion if it directly impinged their interests or borders.
    If we decided tactically to be closer to China, we could expect even less support from India.
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 130

    Man jailed for abusive emails to politicians
    ...
    A 39-year-old man has been jailed for sending malicious communications to a government minister, the mayor of London and a senior Met Police officer.

    Jack Bennett, of Newlands Park, Seaton, Devon, pleaded guilty to four counts of sending malicious emails; one to Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips, one to Metropolitan police officer Matt Twist, and two counts to Mayor Sadiq Khan.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3rndxj705jo

    Guardian write-up of the same case:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/feb/18/devon-man-jailed-for-sending-utterly-deplorable-email-to-jess-phillips-mp

    "The Crown Prosecution Service said the email to Phillips was sent on 2 January, one day after Musk said the MP “deserves to be in prison” for denying requests to the Home Office for a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham. The X owner also later called her a “rape genocide apologist”.

    The prime minister suggested that a line has been crossed and that Musk’s comments had led to threats against the minister.
    "

    The case reached its conclusion very quickly, even if the chap did hold his hands up and the action took place in a magistrates' court. One of the emails was sent as recently as 2 January.

    Gotta wonder whether the government would okay a Musk visit to this country.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502

    But your fundamental basis for this argument is that we need to control what happens on the continent of Europe. Put simply, we don't. We are blessed to be separated from the continent by 'a silver sea' that makes us independent. That goes for military as well as political entanglements. We consistently fail to take advantage of the situation that fate has given us.

    We have been here before when Britain spent its blood and a fortune fighting in the wars of the Spanish succession. The same people would have been around then, demanding that it was the only patriotic option to fight, and that those against it were allowing the hated French to control the continent. It was only when we stopped that nonsense and instead invested in naval force that we became a great power. Incidentally, Europe then also sorted itself out (for a while at least).
    And we know what you'd have been saying in September 1939.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    Foxy said:

    We don't hose aid money at India.

    "The British Government stopped providing traditional development aid to India in 2015. Most UK funding to India is in the form of investments in priority areas like climate change. These investments have the dual aims of supporting development and backing private enterprises with the potential to be commercially viable, creating new partners, markets and jobs for the UK as well as India. They also generate returns which the British Government can reinvest in India or elsewhere. To date we have invested £330 million and over £100 million has been returned. We expect to get all our investments back over time."

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2023-12-18.7344.h#:~:text=The British Government stopped providing,priority areas like climate change.
    Whilst posting a quotation that proves that we do.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    It looks like the burger eating surrender monkey is out of touch with America:

    🇺🇸👀 CNN poll:

    ▪️8% of Americans view Russia positively;
    ▪️61% see Russia as an enemy;
    ▪️4% Russia as a partner.

    ▪️ only 9% like Putin!

    ▪️ 52% support Ukraine using U.S. weapons in Russia.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lii4o3snik2u
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    GIN1138 said:

    Hopefully Pope France recovers but if not it's always fascinating to see the "Conclave" and the white smoke.

    I've long thought the Conservative Party should deploy the grey/white smoke trick for their seemingly never ending, insufferable leadership contests... 😂
    Blue smoke?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,302
    Foxy said:

    It looks like the burger eating surrender monkey is out of touch with America:

    🇺🇸👀 CNN poll:

    ▪️8% of Americans view Russia positively;
    ▪️61% see Russia as an enemy;
    ▪️4% Russia as a partner.

    ▪️ only 9% like Putin!

    ▪️ 52% support Ukraine using U.S. weapons in Russia.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lii4o3snik2u

    But 95% of GOP politicians now see Russia positively and like Putin, because Trump does, and they'd lose their seats if they disagreed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612
    GIN1138 said:

    Hopefully Pope Francis recovers but if not it's always fascinating to see the "Conclave" and the white smoke.

    I've long thought the Conservative Party should deploy the grey/white smoke trick for their seemingly never ending, insufferable leadership contests... 😂
    Does the conclave use AV?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    I wonder what China is thinking about this growing Trump-Putin love fest?

    I can't believe they are happy at all.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    Winchy said:

    Guardian write-up of the same case:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/feb/18/devon-man-jailed-for-sending-utterly-deplorable-email-to-jess-phillips-mp

    "The Crown Prosecution Service said the email to Phillips was sent on 2 January, one day after Musk said the MP “deserves to be in prison” for denying requests to the Home Office for a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham. The X owner also later called her a “rape genocide apologist”.

    The prime minister suggested that a line has been crossed and that Musk’s comments had led to threats against the minister.
    "

    The case reached its conclusion very quickly, even if the chap did hold his hands up and the action took place in a magistrates' court. One of the emails was sent as recently as 2 January.

    Gotta wonder whether the government would okay a Musk visit to this country.

    Didn't Sunak kiss Musk's arse on a visit a year ago?

    How times change.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 141
    Winchy said:

    He's been the best Pope since maybe forever.

    Note to self: find out the Jesuit position on AI.
    Disappointing on Ukraine though. A black mark against him for that.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    Foxy said:

    It looks like the burger eating surrender monkey is out of touch with America:

    🇺🇸👀 CNN poll:

    ▪️8% of Americans view Russia positively;
    ▪️61% see Russia as an enemy;
    ▪️4% Russia as a partner.

    ▪️ only 9% like Putin!

    ▪️ 52% support Ukraine using U.S. weapons in Russia.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lii4o3snik2u

    A Fox News poll would presumably show different results.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 586
    The pressure for labour to drop their red lines just keeps building and building. It is turning from a whisper into a roar. There is no way that policy survives till GE2029

    P.s. i will bet you the next statista poll has stay out at well below 30% due to the new world order that has appeared since Jan 20.

    https://www.cityam.com/america-first-means-britain-needs-a-customs-union-with-europe/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    tlg86 said:

    And we know what you'd have been saying in September 1939.
    It's definitely what I'd have been saying in 1914, when foolish warmongers thought a jolly war on the continent would blow the cobwebs away and toughen us up a bit. Followed by The Somme, mustard gas, and the end of Britain's remarkable and peace-promoting leadership of the world economy. And without which there would have been no Hitler.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,612
    edited February 18

    If we decided tactically to be closer to China, we could expect even less support from India.
    China has occupied Indian territory for many decades. And supplied nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan.

    An uneasy love triangle between Modi, Xi and Putin.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    Winchy said:

    Guardian write-up of the same case:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/feb/18/devon-man-jailed-for-sending-utterly-deplorable-email-to-jess-phillips-mp

    "The Crown Prosecution Service said the email to Phillips was sent on 2 January, one day after Musk said the MP “deserves to be in prison” for denying requests to the Home Office for a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham. The X owner also later called her a “rape genocide apologist”.

    The prime minister suggested that a line has been crossed and that Musk’s comments had led to threats against the minister.
    "

    The case reached its conclusion very quickly, even if the chap did hold his hands up and the action took place in a magistrates' court. One of the emails was sent as recently as 2 January.

    Gotta wonder whether the government would okay a Musk visit to this country.

    Not seen all the details, obviously, but if there is no threat aren’t these just unpleasant opinions?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,551
    kle4 said:

    But 95% of GOP politicians now see Russia positively and like Putin, because Trump does, and they'd lose their seats if they disagreed.
    They either lose their seats cos they get primaried, or they lose their seats cos voters don't like the position they are holding
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Foxy said:

    It looks like the burger eating surrender monkey is out of touch with America:

    🇺🇸👀 CNN poll:

    ▪️8% of Americans view Russia positively;
    ▪️61% see Russia as an enemy;
    ▪️4% Russia as a partner.

    ▪️ only 9% like Putin!

    ▪️ 52% support Ukraine using U.S. weapons in Russia.

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lii4o3snik2u

    I'm not totally panicking about the US and Trump because, regardless of the damage they are doing atm, and my belief that the lead European powers need to up their game and police their own backyard, I don't think that's where most Americans are at, who are quite reasonable, share most of our values, and have a fondness for their European roots.

    We just don't know how long it will last, or where we'll be when it finishes. Which is why we must act now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432

    Blue smoke?
    Grey or white underpants (I believe John Major may have a supplier)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,485

    I wonder what China is thinking about this growing Trump-Putin love fest?

    I can't believe they are happy at all.

    There is method in Trump's madness. He's the Bismarck of our era.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432

    It's definitely what I'd have been saying in 1914, when foolish warmongers thought a jolly war on the continent would blow the cobwebs away and toughen us up a bit. Followed by The Somme, mustard gas, and the end of Britain's remarkable and peace-promoting leadership of the world economy. And without which there would have been no Hitler.
    You might want to think what German war aims were in 1914. And consider how they treated occupied countries. And what they extracted from Russia in 1918. Nazi Germany didn’t spring out of nothing. The Germany of WW1 was not some cuddly set of chaps, just on the wrong side.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    I'm not totally panicking about the US and Trump because, regardless of the damage they are doing atm, and my belief that the lead European powers need to up their game and police their own backyard, I don't think that's where most Americans are at, who are quite reasonable, share most of our values, and have a fondness for their European roots.

    We just don't know how long it will last, or where we'll be when it finishes. Which is why we must act now.
    And this is the point, we need to stop being beholden to the US agenda as it is no longer reliable and hasn't been for 20 years. We need to step up and that means cutting welfare spending to fund our national defence. It's time for the "sick" to go back to work.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    Morning all from my final day in God’s own country as Richard Seddon, the tallest and one of the longest serving Kiwi Prime Ministers, described coming back to New Zealand in his final message before dying in 1906.

    The tone of some of the comments takes hyperbole to whole new depths.

    Plain speaking - America has always acted in America’s best interests and if that means screwing over allies, so be it. How soon we have forgotten how they utilized economic pressure against us over Suez and in the immediate post war period. Had it been someone other than Reagan in the WH, we’d have been forced to do a deal over the Falklands.

    NATO’s purpose effectively ended in 1989 and for the past 35 years, we’ve coasted on inertia in terms of strategic thinking. The collapse of Yugoslavia laid bare the weaknesses in European military thinking and capability.

    I always imagined the Americans would become increasingly Pacific focused with China the new enemy and Europe would be a backwater on the other side of the planet. It’s interesting one of Trump’s smoothest early meetings has been with Japan - the Japanese worked out how to “play” Trump and got everything they wanted.

    None of that helps us or Ukraine much.
  • MaxPB said:

    And this is the point, we need to stop being beholden to the US agenda as it is no longer reliable and hasn't been for 20 years. We need to step up and that means cutting welfare spending to fund our national defence. It's time for the "sick" to go back to work.
    And its time to stop featherbedding pensioners and the NHS.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    Screw Germany. They are worse than useless. The War of the Spanish Succession led to Britain becoming the dominant commerical power in Europe, establishment of our naval superiority over our competitors, acquisition of strategic Mediterranean ports, such as Gibraltar, and French acceptance of the Protestant succession, ensuring a smooth inheritance by George I in August 1714 and our rise as a great power later in the century.

    Do you ever tire of being wrong?
    The war did not lead to any of those things. The decision to stop fighting on Britain's part, followed by the peace treaty, led to those things.

    It must be very embarrassing being you on PB. It's like watching someone banging their head on a table reading your posts at times. For what it's worth, I do genuinely like you, but barely seem to have got past one crashing error of judgement before you're racing for another one like a rat up a drainpipe. The latest being this re-heated entente-cordiale. Just stop and think sometimes for goodness sake.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    It's definitely what I'd have been saying in 1914, when foolish warmongers thought a jolly war on the continent would blow the cobwebs away and toughen us up a bit. Followed by The Somme, mustard gas, and the end of Britain's remarkable and peace-promoting leadership of the world economy. And without which there would have been no Hitler.
    We didn't have a choice.

    We all wish (and now largely want) to believe it could have been different given the horrendous casualties we suffered but France would have collapsed by 1916 without us, possibly earlier, and the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk- shows the terms that a vindictive Kaiser Wilhelm II would have imposed on his defeated enemies.

    We'd have risked an entirely German dominated Europe, including across the French side of the Channel and the low countries, with a large and hostile naval fleet in being, pointed right at our necks, and having dodged our commitments to several bilateral treaties to save us the trouble. They could have dictated trading conditions to us and minor powers would have turned to them, not us, for buttressing and protection. We could not have continued as a free and independent power under those conditions.

    Sadly, we had to fight. And it was a tragedy.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Foxy said:

    Didn't Sunak kiss Musk's arse on a visit a year ago?

    I must have missed that clip.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384

    I wonder what China is thinking about this growing Trump-Putin love fest?

    I can't believe they are happy at all.

    There is a possibility we’ll see a China-Europe rapprochement which may be economically helpful to both sides.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    The pressure for labour to drop their red lines just keeps building and building. It is turning from a whisper into a roar. There is no way that policy survives till GE2029

    P.s. i will bet you the next statista poll has stay out at well below 30% due to the new world order that has appeared since Jan 20.

    https://www.cityam.com/america-first-means-britain-needs-a-customs-union-with-europe/

    Honestly, it’s like the League of Empire Loyalists. Our EU membership has gone and isn’t coming back. Joining is just not practical. No rational U.K. Government will go for a customs union or the single market either.

    However, this situation will engender good will in the EU and U.K., and we’ll end up with narrow equivalence deals and some dynamic alignment. I doubt we’ll argue too strongly over things like fishing either, as we turn our collective minds to something more like a boosted European community beyond the EU, and structures growing out of NATO without the U.S.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,994
    rcs1000 said:

    As long as the AI dies with the name of Jesus on its screen, then it goes to heaven.
    No. It has to ask forgiveness for all it's many sins. Ai is incapable of requesting forgiveness.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    Britain's problem was that if we'd sat the war out and Germany / Austria-Hungary had won, then the continent would have ended up dominated by a powerful enemy. If France / Russia has managed to prevail without us, then our allies would never have trusted us again and we'd have been left friendless. In the end, going to war was seen as the least worst option.
    Spot on.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    stodge said:

    Morning all from my final day in God’s own country as Richard Seddon, the tallest and one of the longest serving Kiwi Prime Ministers, described coming back to New Zealand in his final message before dying in 1906.

    The tone of some of the comments takes hyperbole to whole new depths.

    Plain speaking - America has always acted in America’s best interests and if that means screwing over allies, so be it. How soon we have forgotten how they utilized economic pressure against us over Suez and in the immediate post war period. Had it been someone other than Reagan in the WH, we’d have been forced to do a deal over the Falklands.

    NATO’s purpose effectively ended in 1989 and for the past 35 years, we’ve coasted on inertia in terms of strategic thinking. The collapse of Yugoslavia laid bare the weaknesses in European military thinking and capability.

    I always imagined the Americans would become increasingly Pacific focused with China the new enemy and Europe would be a backwater on the other side of the planet. It’s interesting one of Trump’s smoothest early meetings has been with Japan - the Japanese worked out how to “play” Trump and got everything they wanted.

    None of that helps us or Ukraine much.

    "America has always acted in America’s best interests"

    I agree with that.

    But that is not what we're seeing. We're currently seeing America's leadership acting in the best interests of a few, very rich, people. Not all of whom are American. That is rather different.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,254
    edited February 18
    ydoethur said:

    Do you believe the nonsense you type, or are you actually just taking some perverse delight in spouting it?
    I think PutinGuy1983 is deranged enough to be a true believer.

    Billy Glenn is just trolling us for shits and giggles I think. Not 100% sure, but I think so at least.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,140
    MaxPB said:

    The US has really fucked it today. Accepting Russian terms in total is a capitulation. Europe needs to tool up and tell the US to go jump off a bridge and we need to protect our own borders properly. UK + France + Poland in an ExCo with associate members. The three ExCo countries need to have a minimum of 4% defence spending and associate members at 2.5%, time to show Russia what we're made of.

    Europe shouldn't have run down its military capabilities over the last few decades. Totally stupid.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    DOGE hasn't a clue latest:

    Momentum Chaser
    @electricfutures
    ·
    4h
    So we're down to $6.5B in savings, and an alarming trend emerges:

    @DOGE
    does not seem to understand how the government contracts they are canceling work. The savings they are claiming are not annual savings, but rather hypothetical savings if we spent every unobligated penny.

    https://x.com/electricfutures/status/1891898345028808761
  • ydoethur said:

    Do you believe the nonsense you type, or are you actually just taking some perverse delight in spouting it?
    Must be the booze?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,140
    "Starmer in rare public row with most senior judge

    Prime Minister defends comment that branded immigration decision as ‘wrong’"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/18/top-judge-extraordinary-attack-starmer-migrant-remarks/
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571
    rcs1000 said:

    Yes: we do need a defence pact outside of the EU.

    It needs, I think we'd all agree, to include Norway, Iceland and us, for a start. Plus, for the reasons you outlined, we don't probably don't want Hungary to be a part.

    The question is this: do we want to completely cut ties with the US? That is, is the current Trump administration an aberration, and if the European countries step up and put the spending in, then NATO continues? Or is that it? Is NATO effectively over?

    Two months ago, I would have said "tough it out, America is ultimately our friend", but the problem is that the current administration doesn't think in terms of long term allies, it thinks transactionally here and now. And the cost to remaining in its orbit is likely to rise and rise.

    For that reason, I fear we do need to start thinking beyond NATO.
    Yes, that's roughly where I am at, but with the caveat that in my limited knowledge there appears to be a gap of perhaps 5 years between our current heavy reliance on USA (and therefore NATO) and our ability to cobble together a respectable post-NATO alliance.

    I'm not sure how we bridge that gap.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    edited February 18
    Good evening I see that PB is on the verge of declaring war on the US.

    I suppose it's the last vestige of British exceptionalism that so many people on here and beyond find comfort in.

    Edit: and I see we plan to enlist Iceland and the Faroe Islands in a military pact.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,540
    edited February 18
    tlg86 said:

    I see the estimated chance of that asteroid hitting Earth has gone up to 3.1%...

    At this stage the increasing probability of collision was what the astronomers expected.

    At the time of the possible collision, the object approaches travelling in the same direction as earth from behind.

    We pretty much know its orbit North
    to South - any collision with the earth
    would be slightly into the northern
    hemisphere, at a time of day when off the African coast around Ghana would be a direct bullseye hit*, and glancing blows* could occur anywhere from the Pacific off Central America to Bangladesh.

    It is the left-right path of approach we don't know to within a couple of hundred thousand miles. It could pass inside the earth's orbit, it could pass outside, it could hit. But as we narrow this error, it's the bits on either side get shaved off first and the earth stays in target up until an inside pass or an outside pass is ruled out, and then the earth is shaved off.

    So, the probability of an earth strike initially goes up and then, we hope, is ruled out quickly.

    If you set your frame of reference such that this object were making a straight line approach, it would loom larger and larger until the point the parallax makes it obvious it is going to one side. We are just at the larger and larger phase now.

    * hit and blow perhaps inaccurate here, as the object's size suggests air burst.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    MaxPB said:

    That's complete nonsense. Russia poses a naval and air threat to our borders and allowing them to takeover Eastern Europe hurts our security and our economy. Beyond our own self interest, allowing tens of millions to be subjugated by a despot is fundamentally wrong, Europe is faced with a similar choice to 1939. We needed US support against Nazi Germany, we don't need US support against a clapped out Russia we can step up and do it ourselves.
    Piss off. What navy do they have left that floats? Assuming that they even can take over Eastern Europe (they can't even do Ukraine), how does that harm our economy? How does that harm our security? The best UK threat that number 1 Russia policeman Josias could come up yesterday was that they might subvert an election through social media. And I don't think he'd miss a trick if there was one.

    There's certainly a moral case for containing them, but you have not successfully made a national interest argument.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    TOPPING said:

    Good evening I see that PB is on the verge of declaring war on the US.

    I suppose it's the last vestige of British exceptionalism that so many people on here and beyond find comfort in.

    Edit: and I see we plan to enlist Iceland and the Faroe Islands in a military pact.

    It's not about "declaring war on the US" we need to defend our own borders and not rely on the US to do it for us, we needed to start this journey 20 years ago but now is as good a time as any.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    TOPPING said:

    Good evening I see that PB is on the verge of declaring war on the US.

    I suppose it's the last vestige of British exceptionalism that so many people on here and beyond find comfort in.

    Edit: and I see we plan to enlist Iceland and the Faroe Islands in a military pact.

    To be honest, I've been there for some time.

    I wasn't happy with The Patriot but I became a hard-liner when I saw the YouTube videos of how they recommend making a cup of tea.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    TOPPING said:

    Good evening I see that PB is on the verge of declaring war on the US.

    (Snip)

    Russia has declared war on us. At least a cold war; not including events such as Salisbury.

    Have you seen the rhetoric they spout about perfidious Albion? Tsunami nukes and all that rubbish?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Breaking news. I don’t want to alarm anyone, but based on the current press conference, I am not sure Trump is the full shilling.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173

    The pressure for labour to drop their red lines just keeps building and building. It is turning from a whisper into a roar. There is no way that policy survives till GE2029

    P.s. i will bet you the next statista poll has stay out at well below 30% due to the new world order that has appeared since Jan 20.

    https://www.cityam.com/america-first-means-britain-needs-a-customs-union-with-europe/

    The more immediate questions are firstly, is the Government really committed to a significant investment in defence and rearmament, or is this all just grandstanding to conceal an actual commitment of tuppence ha'penny; and secondly, if they are, who gets the pleasure of being rinsed to pay for it? The answers will tell us a lot about what their priorities really are.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    You might want to think what German war aims were in 1914. And consider how they treated occupied countries. And what they extracted from Russia in 1918. Nazi Germany didn’t spring out of nothing. The Germany of WW1 was not some cuddly set of chaps, just on the wrong side.
    And? It didn't do the USA any harm to stand on the sidelines and get rich supplying munitions, joining later to deliver the decisive blow. It didn't do them any harm as far as posterity is concerned either. Those who suggest that I'm a would-be Nazi appeaser seem to have very little cricitism of the US war records.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 586
    biggles said:

    Honestly, it’s like the League of Empire Loyalists. Our EU membership has gone and isn’t coming back. Joining is just not practical. No rational U.K. Government will go for a customs union or the single market either.

    However, this situation will engender good will in the EU and U.K., and we’ll end up with narrow equivalence deals and some dynamic alignment. I doubt we’ll argue too strongly over things like fishing either, as we turn our collective minds to something more like a boosted European community beyond the EU, and structures growing out of NATO without the U.S.
    You are living in a dream world mate.
  • Foxy said:

    India is the most Pro-Putin country outside Russia.
    Apart from Belarus :lol:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    To be honest, I've been there for some time.

    I wasn't happy with The Patriot but I became a hard-liner when I saw the YouTube videos of how they recommend making a cup of tea.
    Plus what's with the whole "biscuits" thing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    MaxPB said:

    It's not about "declaring war on the US" we need to defend our own borders and not rely on the US to do it for us, we needed to start this journey 20 years ago but now is as good a time as any.
    Where do you see the next threat to our borders emanating.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    maxh said:

    Yes, that's roughly where I am at, but with the caveat that in my limited knowledge there appears to be a gap of perhaps 5 years between our current heavy reliance on USA (and therefore NATO) and our ability to cobble together a respectable post-NATO alliance.

    I'm not sure how we bridge that gap.
    We don't. You'd have to do an emergency call up with what you had, and remobilise anything mothballed or requistion anything you could from civilian life.

    It's not much commented on now but Baldwin/Chamberlain's decision to leave re-armament so late (effectively just 18 months for the army before the outbreak of WWII) had a material impact on the fighting efficacy of the BEF in France in 1940.

    The RAF, that had been better funded for years before, did not.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281

    Britain's problem was that if we'd sat the war out and Germany / Austria-Hungary had won, then the continent would have ended up dominated by a powerful enemy. If France / Russia has managed to prevail without us, then our allies would never have trusted us again and we'd have been left friendless. In the end, going to war was seen as the least worst option.
    Neither France and certainly not Russia were Britain's allies prior to the outbreak of the first world war.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    MaxPB said:

    And this is the point, we need to stop being beholden to the US agenda as it is no longer reliable and hasn't been for 20 years. We need to step up and that means cutting welfare spending to fund our national defence. It's time for the "sick" to go back to work.
    If the sick didn’t have to spend so long on a waiting list, they could go back to work sooner.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,045
    viewcode said:
    That's the kind of thing that makes me think "hmmm... if I'm just getting Elon's predilections, do I want to use it?"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    Piss off. What navy do they have left that floats? Assuming that they even can take over Eastern Europe (they can't even do Ukraine), how does that harm our economy? How does that harm our security? The best UK threat that number 1 Russia policeman Josias could come up yesterday was that they might subvert an election through social media. And I don't think he'd miss a trick if there was one.

    There's certainly a moral case for containing them, but you have not successfully made a national interest argument.
    It's not in the national interests of Russia, that's for sure.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    DOGE hasn't a clue latest:

    Momentum Chaser
    @electricfutures
    ·
    4h
    So we're down to $6.5B in savings, and an alarming trend emerges:

    @DOGE
    does not seem to understand how the government contracts they are canceling work. The savings they are claiming are not annual savings, but rather hypothetical savings if we spent every unobligated penny.

    https://x.com/electricfutures/status/1891898345028808761

    “Unobligated”? Yuck.
  • WinchyWinchy Posts: 130

    We need to be prepared to go further if necessary, and be prepared to stand up to Trump if he threatens us.
    If Trump takes the Faroe Islands he will inherit the Danish claim to Rockall.

    https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/dreams-of-independence-in-europes-far-north/

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2017/08/12/why-the-faroe-islands-want-independence-from-denmark
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    Russia has declared war on us. At least a cold war; not including events such as Salisbury.

    Have you seen the rhetoric they spout about perfidious Albion? Tsunami nukes and all that rubbish?
    What do you expect to come of it.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,487
    pigeon said:

    The more immediate questions are firstly, is the Government really committed to a significant investment in defence and rearmament, or is this all just grandstanding to conceal an actual commitment of tuppence ha'penny; and secondly, if they are, who gets the pleasure of being rinsed to pay for it? The answers will tell us a lot about what their priorities really are.
    I don’t consider having to pay for my country to protect me and my family as being rinsed.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    You are living in a dream world mate.
    In what way? If you think we’re going to join the EU, then I am afraid you don’t understand what that would mean. No sensible politician is going to push for a referendum on the Euro and Schengen, but those sorts of aspirations may be overtaken by events anyway.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    Britain's problem was that if we'd sat the war out and Germany / Austria-Hungary had won, then the continent would have ended up dominated by a powerful enemy. If France / Russia has managed to prevail without us, then our allies would never have trusted us again and we'd have been left friendless. In the end, going to war was seen as the least worst option.
    So by your calculation, America's attitude to both wars would have made them completely friendless - they seem to have coped with that crushing blow quite well don't they?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    Andy_JS said:

    Europe shouldn't have run down its military capabilities over the last few decades. Totally stupid.
    When the Warsaw Pact collapsed in 1989 and the USSR soon after, the natural response was to assume the “threat” was over and there was no longer a need for large scale conventional forces to be based in Germany (though as the Germans were happy to pay for them to be there, it suited us for them to stay for a while).

    Remember “the Peace Dividend”? The money saved on defence was going to go on schools, hospitals, tax cuts or whatever your ideological preference.

    As with so much else, it seemed like a good idea at the time.
  • If the sick didn’t have to spend so long on a waiting list, they could go back to work sooner.
    You really think all the people on waiting lists are non-workers who want to work and can be easily cured ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127

    There is method in Trump's madness. He's the Bismarck of our era.
    Deploy the Swordfish!


  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,571

    We don't. You'd have to do an emergency call up with what you had, and remobilise anything mothballed or requistion anything you could from civilian life.

    It's not much commented on now but Baldwin/Chamberlain's decision to leave re-armament so late (effectively just 18 months for the army before the outbreak of WWII) had a material impact on the fighting efficacy of the BEF in France in 1940.

    The RAF, that had been better funded for years before, did not.
    So (again speaking from relative naivete) does it not then follow that we might need to tiptoe around the current US administration rather than throw our toys out of the pram over Ukraine?

    Much as I don't like it, perhaps we need to keep Trump relatively onside for a few years until we can tell him to fuck off from a position of strength?

    Which, to his credit, Starmer appears to be doing at the moment.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    If the sick didn’t have to spend so long on a waiting list, they could go back to work sooner.
    You don't understand the nature of our problem if you think that's true. The PIP is basically UBI for people who can pass the assessment. The only way to end that spend is to shit can the PIP.
  • DOGE hasn't a clue latest:

    Momentum Chaser
    @electricfutures
    ·
    4h
    So we're down to $6.5B in savings, and an alarming trend emerges:

    @DOGE
    does not seem to understand how the government contracts they are canceling work. The savings they are claiming are not annual savings, but rather hypothetical savings if we spent every unobligated penny.

    https://x.com/electricfutures/status/1891898345028808761

    Alarming to say we are "down" to $6.50b in savings.

    "Only" $6,500,000,000 saved? Oh no, how terrible!
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    stodge said:

    When the Warsaw Pact collapsed in 1989 and the USSR soon after, the natural response was to assume the “threat” was over and there was no longer a need for large scale conventional forces to be based in Germany (though as the Germans were happy to pay for them to be there, it suited us for them to stay for a while).

    Remember “the Peace Dividend”? The money saved on defence was going to go on schools, hospitals, tax cuts or whatever your ideological preference.

    As with so much else, it seemed like a good idea at the time.
    Cameron, Osborne, Clegg, and Alexander, are the most guilty of the guilty men. They made deep cuts in 2010 when the Russian threat was already emerging. Pre-2010 Labour had maintained a seed corn set of capabilities whilst throwing a chunk of cash at Iraq and Afghanistan like they had to. Cameron and chums cut and cut while also posturing in Libya.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,045
    TOPPING said:

    Good evening I see that PB is on the verge of declaring war on the US.

    I suppose it's the last vestige of British exceptionalism that so many people on here and beyond find comfort in.

    Edit: and I see we plan to enlist Iceland and the Faroe Islands in a military pact.

    The Faroe Islands are not our friend. You would do well to remember that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432

    And? It didn't do the USA any harm to stand on the sidelines and get rich supplying munitions, joining later to deliver the decisive blow. It didn't do them any harm as far as posterity is concerned either. Those who suggest that I'm a would-be Nazi appeaser seem to have very little cricitism of the US war records.
    Revealing that you wouldn’t have given a shit for the Belgians, or the French, the Poles, the Russians either in 1914 or presumably 1939. Good clarification, thanks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    Alarming to say we are "down" to $6.50b in savings.

    "Only" $6,500,000,000 saved? Oh no, how terrible!
    Kemi doesn't think DOGE is doing a good job. It's not radical enough.

    https://www.thefp.com/p/kemi-badenoch-i-dont-think-doge-is
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092

    Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    ·
    2h
    Replying to @RealAlexJones

    SSRIs are dangerous
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281

    Revealing that you wouldn’t have given a shit for the Belgians, or the French, the Poles, the Russians either in 1914 or presumably 1939. Good clarification, thanks.
    I think LuckyGuy has been clear all along that he is talking about what is in Britain's interest rather than what might help 1914 Russians (not sure Britain declaring war did anything to help them anyway)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785

    You really think all the people on waiting lists are non-workers who want to work and can be easily cured ?
    Not all, but many are. Those above retirement age on waiting lists are having a knock on effect too. Many of their carers are of working age.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,432
    kamski said:

    Neither France and certainly not Russia were Britain's allies prior to the outbreak of the first world war.
    Well that’s one view of the Triple Entente. Not a formal alliance, for sure, but definitely on the same side. What is your point?

    By the way did you know that there was no formal alliance of Britain and the USA in WW2? Oddly they get called allies armies all the time though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    kamski said:

    I think LuckyGuy has been clear all along that he is talking about what is in Britain's interest rather than what might help 1914 Russians (not sure Britain declaring war did anything to help them anyway)
    Do you think it was in Britain's interest to fight WW1?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,485


    Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    ·
    2h
    Replying to @RealAlexJones

    SSRIs are dangerous

    Doing something about their overprescription would be very positive.

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2022/jul/no-evidence-depression-caused-low-serotonin-levels-finds-comprehensive-review
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975

    There is method in Trump's madness. He's the Bismarck of our era.
    I hope you're right, but I do wonder

This discussion has been closed.