Time for Badenoch to paint the canvas or others will – politicalbetting.com

First!? Unlike Badenoch will ever be, I rather suspect.

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

The good news for Badenoch and the Tories is that if Badenoch can get a good brand going it might not be all gloom and doom for the Tories.

Two problems.

Is she capable of getting a personal brand going?
(Curiously, this looked like one of her strengths beforehand. Strong backstory (even if it had some holes), simple proposition (even if copying the American right's playbook looks less plausible now.))

Is she capable of realising how badly things are going for her?

Meanwhile, yes this is an anonymous piece in an online magazine, but it couldn't be less subtle if the author called themselves Jobert Renwick;

https://thecritic.co.uk/badenoch-must-go/

Leon said:

Farage is a cert to win in 2028 on these numbers

I think I mentioned before Ken Clarke's assessment of the situation post-1979 on Matt Forde's podcast. 'The Labour Party had split in two and both were ahead of us in the polls.' I'm not saying Farage won't win, I'm not saying Starmer will win. I'm just saying 2028 is a long time away.

On topic.

The reason for low score, across the board, is a profound disconnect between politicians and the electorate.

The politicians do not want to do the things the electorate wants. They want to talk the talk, then walk another walk.

They are then appalled to find that the electorate does not regard them as trustworthy.

Malmesbury said:

On topic.

The reason for low score, across the board, is a profound disconnect between politicians and the electorate.

The politicians do not want to do the things the electorate wants. They want to talk the talk, then walk another walk.

They are then appalled to find that the electorate does not regard them as trustworthy.

Trouble is that the totality of what the electorate wants is probably unattainable. Too much of it boils down to wanting nice things without their nasty consequences.

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

FPT

Someone mentioned Santorini and earthquakes. Sat through a tremor in a restaurant in Greece a few years ago. Strange feeling where you think something is happening but no one moves. Meanwhile further down the road, a pothole to beat all potholes.

kamski said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

I don't like the misleading way this polling is reported without showing don't knows
eg 'An honest person' is in fact:

Starmer Yes 31% No 46% Don't know 23% Net -15%
Badenoch Yes 21% No 37% Don't know 43% Net -16%
Farage Yes 24% No 50% Don't know 26% Net -26%
Davey Yes 37% No 22% Don't know 41% Net +15%

Badenoch's net 'honest person' is actually better than Farage's, and Davey's 37% is even more impressive given the numbers saying 'Don't know'

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Ipsos January 2025_Political Pulse_Data Tables_PUBLIC_0.pdf

Net for 'Shares my values' are bad though:

Starmer -31%
Badenoch -32%
Farage -27%
Davey -6%

There we go, confirmation UK is a bunch of NIMBYs

Sandpit said:

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

No politician in the US is running on a balanced budget platform.

The US budget deficit today is around $1.6 trillion.

Elon Musk has expressed optimism about cutting the budget deficit by $1trillion.

kamski said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

I don't like the misleading way this polling is reported without showing don't knows
eg 'An honest person' is in fact:

Starmer Yes 31% No 46% Don't know 23% Net -15%
Badenoch Yes 21% No 37% Don't know 43% Net -16%
Farage Yes 24% No 50% Don't know 26% Net -26%
Davey Yes 37% No 22% Don't know 41% Net +15%

Badenoch's net 'honest person' is actually better than Farage's, and Davey's 37% is even more impressive given the numbers saying 'Don't know'

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Ipsos January 2025_Political Pulse_Data Tables_PUBLIC_0.pdf

Net for 'Shares my values' are bad though:

Starmer -31%
Badenoch -32%
Farage -27%
Davey -6%

Which overall seems to cast the opinion of Badenoch as "probably just another politician until proven otherwise". Whether the irreconcilables like Jenrick and TSE will give her the time and space to have a chance to prove otherwise is a different question.

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

No politician in the US is running on a balanced budget platform.

The US budget deficit today is around $1.6 trillion.

Elon Musk has expressed optimism about cutting the budget deficit by $1trillion.

If he does find a trillion it'll go straight into his and mates' pockets, rather than cutting the deficit.

Badenoch has, FWIW (probably not all that much), made a first step today, with her new immigration policy detail.

So she at least recognises that there's no Ming Vase for her.

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

No politician in the US is running on a balanced budget platform.

The US budget deficit today is around $1.6 trillion.

Elon Musk has expressed optimism about cutting the budget deficit by $1trillion.

Which is why I said a zero-based budget rather than a balanced budget!

Yes the US deficit was totally unsustainable, I’m sure we’ve all worked at companies where the finances have been a mess, new management has come in and suddenly every purchase of a pencil needs justification. My suspicion is that every Western country is going to need to do a similar exercise in the coming years, or face the wrath of the markets.

In the UK there’s a gap of 6.3% of GDP between tax revenues and government spending. At some point the debt interest is going to be like having another NHS to fund.
https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2025/01/uk-economic-outlook-january-2025.pdf

OTOH, California has some serious fat to cut.
Newsom has zero change against someone like Shapiro for the nomination, if he doesn't sort this sort of shit out.

This is actually insane. The 119 Mile, on flat land, Merced to Bakersfield part of the California HSR, totally planned and in progress literally for decades, will not be finished for at least 11 years. Can we get the
@_brianpotter deep dive on what the hell they are doing?
https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1887298279001759956

Good morning, everyone.

She's been leader for long enough that this should've already happened.

F1: Audi (Sauber next year) are to open a base in the UK. Smart move given everyone except them and Ferrari have one base or another which makes it easier to get good talent.

One for Musk supporters to explain, Tesla debt:

The floating-rate debts carry an interest rate of approximately 11%, with borrowing costs above even the riskiest loans on Wall Street, the Journal said.

(I'm not sure on the "bet on Musk" line. I'm more inclined to "banks dump Tesla debt", but this is not my topic.)

https://nypost.com/2025/02/05/business/banks-sell-5-5b-of-x-loans-as-investors-bet-on-elon-musk-report/

One of Badenoch's multiple problems is that Jenrick is proving so much better at Opposition than her. He knows how to use social media, he makes barbed and articulate remarks, he's crisp and eloquent, he's plausible, punchy and papabile

Every rightwinger can look across and think Shit, we chose the wrong guy

And I fear they did. Badenoch was a bet - which on balance I favoured - but she was always a bet. She has one year to improve but then the Tories need Jenrick. Who cares if he is a dodgy chancer with odious tendencies, he's a politician and he just has to beat the shit out of Starmer, who is grotesque, treacherous and inept

Cicero said:

Leon said:

Farage is a cert to win in 2028 on these numbers

Predictable comment from you. What odds are you offering?

14,900 to one

Cicero said:

bondegezou said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

OGH would say this was significant and potentially more significant than current party ranking. I will repeat my view that Davey and the Lib Dems are likely to make progress, even substantial progress over the current Parliament.

I doubt if 20% of the British public can identify Ed Davey by name or face. Indeed, I suspect that, even if they were shown the face of Ed Davey, and they were told, "this is the face of Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems", they would still say Who is that?

In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"

Leon said:

Cicero said:

bondegezou said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

OGH would say this was significant and potentially more significant than current party ranking. I will repeat my view that Davey and the Lib Dems are likely to make progress, even substantial progress over the current Parliament.

I doubt if 20% of the British public can identify Ed Davey by name or face. Indeed, I suspect that, even if they were shown the face of Ed Davey, and they were told, "this is the face of Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems", they would still say Who is that?

In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"

There is actual evidence of what happens. The first minute of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO0L10E-Cic

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

On topic.

The reason for low score, across the board, is a profound disconnect between politicians and the electorate.

The politicians do not want to do the things the electorate wants. They want to talk the talk, then walk another walk.

They are then appalled to find that the electorate does not regard them as trustworthy.

The things that the electorate wants?

That's where the reality hits.

World class public services with low taxes (on them).

No immigration but well staffed cheap labour intensive services like Social Care, hospitality, and fast food delivery.

Tough on crime and anti-social behaviour, but no restrictions on them and theirs.

Etc etc.

Constructing castles on clouds isn't an easy task. Maybe, just maybe it's not about the quality of our politicians.

Ah yes.

The “wrong kind of electorate” approach.

Perhaps we could amend the Human Rights Act

“Incompetent, over promoted middle mangers who don’t want to do what the electorate wants, have a basic right to votes.”

Leon said:

Cicero said:

Leon said:

Farage is a cert to win in 2028 on these numbers

Predictable comment from you. What odds are you offering?

14,900 to one

So if I bet a tenner, and the aging Brexiteer isn't next PM, you'll pay me £149.9k ?

Leon said:

Cicero said:

bondegezou said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

OGH would say this was significant and potentially more significant than current party ranking. I will repeat my view that Davey and the Lib Dems are likely to make progress, even substantial progress over the current Parliament.

I doubt if 20% of the British public can identify Ed Davey by name or face. Indeed, I suspect that, even if they were shown the face of Ed Davey, and they were told, "this is the face of Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems", they would still say Who is that?

In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"

And yet what people did see of him at the last election they clearly liked. Nigel Farage's whole media strategy is to shout "I am Nigel Farage and I am Leader of Reform" 24 hours a day. Maybe there's a niche market for someone who doesn't do that.

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

No politician in the US is running on a balanced budget platform.

The US budget deficit today is around $1.6 trillion.

Elon Musk has expressed optimism about cutting the budget deficit by $1trillion.

Has he explained how ?
Because it's not going to be by cutting "waste", without a wholesale redefinition of the term.

One man's "waste" is another man's "essential funding"

The polls say that he's already losing approval, fast.

It's not up to Musk to change (eg) social security, or healthcare entitlements. Or indeed the defence budget.
That's policy change, and will have to go through Congress. Imposing such things extra-legally is going to make a very big mess indeed.

Absent any of that, he's not going to save even a quarter of a trillion.

The "extra legal" bit is where I think a lot of problems will occur

A bunch of politicians had a press conference outside USAID on Monday saying "You can't do this" while they were inside, doing it...

Didn't stop them.

If they're acting on the orders of the President, and Presidential Acts are always legal (Supreme Court) then maybe what they are doing is legal

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

No politician in the US is running on a balanced budget platform.

The US budget deficit today is around $1.6 trillion.

Elon Musk has expressed optimism about cutting the budget deficit by $1trillion.

Has he explained how ?
Because it's not going to be by cutting "waste", without a wholesale redefinition of the term.

One man's "waste" is another man's "essential funding"

The polls say that he's already losing approval, fast.

It's not up to Musk to change (eg) social security, or healthcare entitlements. Or indeed the defence budget.
That's policy change, and will have to go through Congress. Imposing such things extra-legally is going to make a very big mess indeed.

Absent any of that, he's not going to save even a quarter of a trillion.

The "extra legal" bit is where I think a lot of problems will occur

A bunch of politicians had a press conference outside USAID on Monday saying "You can't do this" while they were inside, doing it...

Didn't stop them.

If they're acting on the orders of the President, and Presidential Acts are always legal (Supreme Court) then maybe what they are doing is legal

It's not. But will take a long time to work through the courts.

Stuff like USAID is the easy bit, though. Touch voters' entitlements, and shit will get real very quickly.

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

On topic.

The reason for low score, across the board, is a profound disconnect between politicians and the electorate.

The politicians do not want to do the things the electorate wants. They want to talk the talk, then walk another walk.

They are then appalled to find that the electorate does not regard them as trustworthy.

The things that the electorate wants?

That's where the reality hits.

World class public services with low taxes (on them).

No immigration but well staffed cheap labour intensive services like Social Care, hospitality, and fast food delivery.

Tough on crime and anti-social behaviour, but no restrictions on them and theirs.

Etc etc.

Constructing castles on clouds isn't an easy task. Maybe, just maybe it's not about the quality of our politicians.

Ah yes.

The “wrong kind of electorate” approach.

Perhaps we could amend the Human Rights Act

“Incompetent, over promoted middle mangers who don’t want to do what the electorate wants, have a basic right to votes.”

Foxy makes a valid point about cakeist voters. This is an inevitable flaw in democracy, and the reason why IIRC some nineteenth century theorists thought it could never last. Everyone wants the moon on a stick, paid for by other people.

A low tax economy is possible, but only if you abandon the weak and poor to rot (that's America.) A strong state with good services is possible, but only if everyone is thoroughly rinsed (that's Denmark.) We sit in-between, with high taxes on some but not all of the people, and insufficient money spread too thinly over too many areas, meaning that most of what Government does is expensive and crap at the same time. Britain is a textbook example of how not to manage an advanced economy.

People must pay for stuff properly or go without, but obviously they want everything for free, and throw a tantrum when told that isn't realistic. So on we go, circling the plughole.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

bondegezou said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

OGH would say this was significant and potentially more significant than current party ranking. I will repeat my view that Davey and the Lib Dems are likely to make progress, even substantial progress over the current Parliament.

I doubt if 20% of the British public can identify Ed Davey by name or face. Indeed, I suspect that, even if they were shown the face of Ed Davey, and they were told, "this is the face of Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems", they would still say Who is that?

In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"

I am in the unusual position having met both @Leon and @EdDavey, and it is rather disturbing how similar they are.

Possibly the worst thing anyone has ever said to me. Not just on PB. Anywhere

Great numbers for Farage, sadly. Great for Davey. Dismal for Badenoch. OK for Starmer.

pigeon said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Malmesbury said:

On topic.

The reason for low score, across the board, is a profound disconnect between politicians and the electorate.

The politicians do not want to do the things the electorate wants. They want to talk the talk, then walk another walk.

They are then appalled to find that the electorate does not regard them as trustworthy.

The things that the electorate wants?

That's where the reality hits.

World class public services with low taxes (on them).

No immigration but well staffed cheap labour intensive services like Social Care, hospitality, and fast food delivery.

Tough on crime and anti-social behaviour, but no restrictions on them and theirs.

Etc etc.

Constructing castles on clouds isn't an easy task. Maybe, just maybe it's not about the quality of our politicians.

Ah yes.

The “wrong kind of electorate” approach.

Perhaps we could amend the Human Rights Act

“Incompetent, over promoted middle mangers who don’t want to do what the electorate wants, have a basic right to votes.”

Foxy makes a valid point about cakeist voters. This is an inevitable flaw in democracy, and the reason why IIRC some nineteenth century theorists thought it could never last. Everyone wants the moon on a stick, paid for by other people.

A low tax economy is possible, but only if you abandon the weak and poor to rot (that's America.) A strong state with good services is possible, but only if everyone is thoroughly rinsed (that's Denmark.) We sit in-between, with high taxes on some but not all of the people, and insufficient money spread too thinly over too many areas, meaning that most of what Government does is expensive and crap at the same time. Britain is a textbook example of how not to manage an advanced economy.

People must pay for stuff properly or go without, but obviously they want everything for free, and throw a tantrum when told that isn't realistic. So on we go, circling the plughole.

And yet the politicians, essentially, deny that anything must be changed, except the tax take.

The problem is, that in many areas, the only solution is 10 years and a billion for an indifferent result.

Leon said:

One of Badenoch's multiple problems is that Jenrick is proving so much better at Opposition than her. He knows how to use social media, he makes barbed and articulate remarks, he's crisp and eloquent, he's plausible, punchy and papabile

Every rightwinger can look across and think Shit, we chose the wrong guy

And I fear they did. Badenoch was a bet - which on balance I favoured - but she was always a bet. She has one year to improve but then the Tories need Jenrick. Who cares if he is a dodgy chancer with odious tendencies, he's a politician and he just has to beat the shit out of Starmer, who is grotesque, treacherous and inept

Not quite. To have two parties, generally seen as being of the right, led by dodgy chancers is to invite a split in the vote which at the very least lets back in a centre left alliance. So far there are probably some trad Tories sticking with the party (they are more persistent than me). There won't be under Jenrick.

Starmer has his limits - culturally he presents as having neither the lights on nor being at home - though he is neither grotesque nor treacherous, but up against Jenrick he is the stuff of heroism.

Driver said:

kamski said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

I don't like the misleading way this polling is reported without showing don't knows
eg 'An honest person' is in fact:

Starmer Yes 31% No 46% Don't know 23% Net -15%
Badenoch Yes 21% No 37% Don't know 43% Net -16%
Farage Yes 24% No 50% Don't know 26% Net -26%
Davey Yes 37% No 22% Don't know 41% Net +15%

Badenoch's net 'honest person' is actually better than Farage's, and Davey's 37% is even more impressive given the numbers saying 'Don't know'

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Ipsos January 2025_Political Pulse_Data Tables_PUBLIC_0.pdf

Net for 'Shares my values' are bad though:

Starmer -31%
Badenoch -32%
Farage -27%
Davey -6%

Which overall seems to cast the opinion of Badenoch as "probably just another politician until proven otherwise". Whether the irreconcilables like Jenrick and TSE will give her the time and space to have a chance to prove otherwise is a different question.

There you go again, I voted for Badenoch and have said she should be given time, the issue is will the party give her time?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Driver said:

kamski said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

I don't like the misleading way this polling is reported without showing don't knows
eg 'An honest person' is in fact:

Starmer Yes 31% No 46% Don't know 23% Net -15%
Badenoch Yes 21% No 37% Don't know 43% Net -16%
Farage Yes 24% No 50% Don't know 26% Net -26%
Davey Yes 37% No 22% Don't know 41% Net +15%

Badenoch's net 'honest person' is actually better than Farage's, and Davey's 37% is even more impressive given the numbers saying 'Don't know'

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Ipsos January 2025_Political Pulse_Data Tables_PUBLIC_0.pdf

Net for 'Shares my values' are bad though:

Starmer -31%
Badenoch -32%
Farage -27%
Davey -6%

Which overall seems to cast the opinion of Badenoch as "probably just another politician until proven otherwise". Whether the irreconcilables like Jenrick and TSE will give her the time and space to have a chance to prove otherwise is a different question.

There you go again, I voted for Badenoch and have said she should be given time, the issue is will the party give her time?

Even TSE would make a better Tory leader than the Kembot!

Leon said:

Will Elon fail in his downsizing of the USG?

It's exactly what he did at Twitter. And, it seems, he is slowly beginning to turn TwiX around

Revenue is slashed, but costs are slashed even more, and now it begins to grow again


https://x.com/Austen/status/1887363437518270757

Whether he right or wrong on costs is not the main point. The key question is it is legal?
Congress created USAID for example and it is definitely a moot point whether a non-elected official can simply close it on presidential whim.

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

Will Elon fail in his downsizing of the USG?

It's exactly what he did at Twitter. And, it seems, he is slowly beginning to turn TwiX around

Revenue is slashed, but costs are slashed even more, and now it begins to grow again


https://x.com/Austen/status/1887363437518270757

Whether he right or wrong on costs is not the main point. The key question is it is legal?
Congress created USAID for example and it is definitely a moot point whether a non-elected official can simply close it on presidential whim.

Well, let's hope so. We all need Elon to win this battle. so it can then be done in the UK

bondegezou said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

By "silly-looking line items in the international development", you mean USAID support for Ukraine, presumably?

'silly-looking' ie not silly but twisted to look silly by spreaders of misinformation, which sadly recently includes @sandpit

algarkirk said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

Scott_xP said:

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

So who is going to be the party leader at the next election, who runs on doing a zero-based budget as they’re doing in the US?? I’m pretty sure the problem is not quite so bad in the UK, but there’s still going to be plenty of silly-looking line items in the international development and academic research budgets.

No politician in the US is running on a balanced budget platform.

The US budget deficit today is around $1.6 trillion.

Elon Musk has expressed optimism about cutting the budget deficit by $1trillion.

Has he explained how ?
Because it's not going to be by cutting "waste", without a wholesale redefinition of the term.

One man's "waste" is another man's "essential funding"

The polls say that he's already losing approval, fast.

It's not up to Musk to change (eg) social security, or healthcare entitlements. Or indeed the defence budget.
That's policy change, and will have to go through Congress. Imposing such things extra-legally is going to make a very big mess indeed.

Absent any of that, he's not going to save even a quarter of a trillion.

The "extra legal" bit is where I think a lot of problems will occur

A bunch of politicians had a press conference outside USAID on Monday saying "You can't do this" while they were inside, doing it...

Didn't stop them.

If they're acting on the orders of the President, and Presidential Acts are always legal (Supreme Court) then maybe what they are doing is legal

It's not. But will take a long time to work through the courts.

Stuff like USAID is the easy bit, though. Touch voters' entitlements, and shit will get real very quickly.

American law is an unknown to me, but there is obviously lots of it, and lots of lawyers for every taste, just like here but more so. So far it gives the impression that they have never heard of interlocutory injunctions or judicial review of executive action.

In the UK no government or government agency could rebuke a long eared bat without finding itself injuncted. What on earth is going on across the pond?

Leon said:

Will Elon fail in his downsizing of the USG?

It's exactly what he did at Twitter. And, it seems, he is slowly beginning to turn TwiX around

Revenue is slashed, but costs are slashed even more, and now it begins to grow again


https://x.com/Austen/status/1887363437518270757

It'll probably try and bite back but Elon is cutting through the deep state lawyerocracy. That's what's going on.

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

One of Badenoch's multiple problems is that Jenrick is proving so much better at Opposition than her. He knows how to use social media, he makes barbed and articulate remarks, he's crisp and eloquent, he's plausible, punchy and papabile

Every rightwinger can look across and think Shit, we chose the wrong guy

And I fear they did. Badenoch was a bet - which on balance I favoured - but she was always a bet. She has one year to improve but then the Tories need Jenrick. Who cares if he is a dodgy chancer with odious tendencies, he's a politician and he just has to beat the shit out of Starmer, who is grotesque, treacherous and inept

Not quite. To have two parties, generally seen as being of the right, led by dodgy chancers is to invite a split in the vote which at the very least lets back in a centre left alliance. So far there are probably some trad Tories sticking with the party (they are more persistent than me). There won't be under Jenrick.

Starmer has his limits - culturally he presents as having neither the lights on nor being at home - though he is neither grotesque nor treacherous, but up against Jenrick he is the stuff of heroism.

I have listened to Badenoch a couple of times on radio and she seems to be a fair person. She is not internet savvy and this is an issue in the modern world. I am not sure at the moment there is much the Tories can do to stop the Reform juggernaut but wait and hope it implodes. So many of today's problems such as the economy, benefits and immigration started with them and they have yet to take responsibility.

I suggested a few weeks ago that all of the leaders of Labour, Tory and Reform will be gone before next election and the only question is which order.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

bondegezou said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

OGH would say this was significant and potentially more significant than current party ranking. I will repeat my view that Davey and the Lib Dems are likely to make progress, even substantial progress over the current Parliament.

I doubt if 20% of the British public can identify Ed Davey by name or face. Indeed, I suspect that, even if they were shown the face of Ed Davey, and they were told, "this is the face of Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems", they would still say Who is that?

In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"

I am in the unusual position having met both @Leon and @EdDavey, and it is rather disturbing how similar they are.

Possibly the worst thing anyone has ever said to me. Not just on PB. Anywhere

Trust me, you've heard worse. It's just you don't speak Thai.

"มันเล็กมาก"

Leon said:

Will Elon fail in his downsizing of the USG?

It's exactly what he did at Twitter. And, it seems, he is slowly beginning to turn TwiX around

Revenue is slashed, but costs are slashed even more, and now it begins to grow again


https://x.com/Austen/status/1887363437518270757

Bonds are being sold on at a yield of 11% and report is that investors' confidence is up because he's in with Trump so TwiX could get some lucrative deals, not because the business has been turned around.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Driver said:

kamski said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

I don't like the misleading way this polling is reported without showing don't knows
eg 'An honest person' is in fact:

Starmer Yes 31% No 46% Don't know 23% Net -15%
Badenoch Yes 21% No 37% Don't know 43% Net -16%
Farage Yes 24% No 50% Don't know 26% Net -26%
Davey Yes 37% No 22% Don't know 41% Net +15%

Badenoch's net 'honest person' is actually better than Farage's, and Davey's 37% is even more impressive given the numbers saying 'Don't know'

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Ipsos January 2025_Political Pulse_Data Tables_PUBLIC_0.pdf

Net for 'Shares my values' are bad though:

Starmer -31%
Badenoch -32%
Farage -27%
Davey -6%

Which overall seems to cast the opinion of Badenoch as "probably just another politician until proven otherwise". Whether the irreconcilables like Jenrick and TSE will give her the time and space to have a chance to prove otherwise is a different question.

There you go again, I voted for Badenoch and have said she should be given time, the issue is will the party give her time?

Even TSE would make a better Tory leader than the Kembot!

I wouldn’t go that far.

She got into trouble for her interview where she denounced sandwich eaters, I would have got into even more trouble when I denounced people who put pineapple on pizza.

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

One of Badenoch's multiple problems is that Jenrick is proving so much better at Opposition than her. He knows how to use social media, he makes barbed and articulate remarks, he's crisp and eloquent, he's plausible, punchy and papabile

Every rightwinger can look across and think Shit, we chose the wrong guy

And I fear they did. Badenoch was a bet - which on balance I favoured - but she was always a bet. She has one year to improve but then the Tories need Jenrick. Who cares if he is a dodgy chancer with odious tendencies, he's a politician and he just has to beat the shit out of Starmer, who is grotesque, treacherous and inept

Not quite. To have two parties, generally seen as being of the right, led by dodgy chancers is to invite a split in the vote which at the very least lets back in a centre left alliance. So far there are probably some trad Tories sticking with the party (they are more persistent than me). There won't be under Jenrick.

Starmer has his limits - culturally he presents as having neither the lights on nor being at home - though he is neither
grotesque nor treacherous, but up against
Jenrick he is the stuff of heroism.

I would not vote for Jenrick.

Poverty of ambition

If you are going to sell yourself like he did to Desmond you should at least get a decent price

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

Ed Davey is not going to be PM and I doubt Farage will be either

I expect Kemi will fight the next election, not least as Jenrick is simply in the wrong party

I have no idea whether Starmer will fight the next election

Ultimately nobody has a clue, and now we have Trump in office and each morning the question is

'what on earth has he done now'

Apparently he is not going to the G20 meeting in South Africa

Uncertainty reigns and it may not end in 2028 if Vance wins

Not going to the G20 in South Africa doesn't strike me as massively controversial. It seems to be largely a massive kleptocracy - like Zimbabwe under Mugabe, only bigger.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

bondegezou said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

OGH would say this was significant and potentially more significant than current party ranking. I will repeat my view that Davey and the Lib Dems are likely to make progress, even substantial progress over the current Parliament.

I doubt if 20% of the British public can identify Ed Davey by name or face. Indeed, I suspect that, even if they were shown the face of Ed Davey, and they were told, "this is the face of Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems", they would still say Who is that?

In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"

I am in the unusual position having met both @Leon and @EdDavey, and it is rather disturbing how similar they are.

Both being in rather over filled wetsuits may have caused the confusion.

Morris_Dancer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Driver said:

kamski said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

I don't like the misleading way this polling is reported without showing don't knows
eg 'An honest person' is in fact:

Starmer Yes 31% No 46% Don't know 23% Net -15%
Badenoch Yes 21% No 37% Don't know 43% Net -16%
Farage Yes 24% No 50% Don't know 26% Net -26%
Davey Yes 37% No 22% Don't know 41% Net +15%

Badenoch's net 'honest person' is actually better than Farage's, and Davey's 37% is even more impressive given the numbers saying 'Don't know'

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Ipsos January 2025_Political Pulse_Data Tables_PUBLIC_0.pdf

Net for 'Shares my values' are bad though:

Starmer -31%
Badenoch -32%
Farage -27%
Davey -6%

Which overall seems to cast the opinion of Badenoch as "probably just another politician until proven otherwise". Whether the irreconcilables like Jenrick and TSE will give her the time and space to have a chance to prove otherwise is a different question.

There you go again, I voted for Badenoch and have said she should be given time, the issue is will the party give her time?

Even TSE would make a better Tory leader than the Kembot!

I wouldn’t go that far.

She got into trouble for her interview where she denounced sandwich eaters, I would have got into even more trouble when I denounced people who put pineapple on pizza.

What about people who put pineapple on pizza and then use that as a sandwich filling?

Hawaiian Calzone ?

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Cicero said:

bondegezou said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Pretty damning scores.

No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"

Poor scores all round; a comment on the state of our politics.

Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk

Indeed. Davey scores well on most of the questions.

OGH would say this was significant and potentially more significant than current party ranking. I will repeat my view that Davey and the Lib Dems are likely to make progress, even substantial progress over the current Parliament.

I doubt if 20% of the British public can identify Ed Davey by name or face. Indeed, I suspect that, even if they were shown the face of Ed Davey, and they were told, "this is the face of Ed Davey, the leader of the Lib Dems", they would still say Who is that?

In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"

I am in the unusual position having met both @Leon and @EdDavey, and it is rather disturbing how similar they are.

Possibly the worst thing anyone has ever said to me. Not just on PB. Anywhere

Trust me, you've heard worse. It's just you don't speak Thai.

"มันเล็กมาก"

Mostly I hear

ใหญ่เกินไป

MattW said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Riddle me this PB:

Why are we giving away the Chagos Islands and paying THEM £18bn for the privilege?

Is that the worse deal in history or is there actually some logic behind it?

Bloomberg have the explanation for the logic.

https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1887203226044539166

Ben Wallace (former Def Sec) seems to have immediately posted that this is all fabricated.

Even if it isn't it deifies the purity of international law whilst ignoring that old adage that possession is nine tenths of the law.

We shouldn't be naive about the power politics that's played out through UN agencies and the ICJ and Mauritius should be told the islands will stay British forever, there will never be a deal, and we should up our naval presence there on top.

I do wonder what military and communication resources China has in Tibet...

We are living in an age of blood and steel, I'm afraid - just look at what Trump has been able to achieve in less than a month from shaking his stick around - and I see little benefit to Britain walking into that naked with a broken cricket bat.

What exactly has Trump achieved in his first 3 weeks?

Well, he's burnt down about 75 years of built up political capital in a fortnight.

He's wrecked the reputation of the USA as a stable, reliable, trustworthy country.

And he's running an action learning experiment in what can happen when the Rule of Law is removed from an advanced country.

...and his ratings went up. ☹️