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Time for Badenoch to paint the canvas or others will – politicalbetting.com
Time for Badenoch to paint the canvas or others will – politicalbetting.com
Recent @IpsosUK polling shows challenge faced by Badenoch / Tories.When you ask about the brand of party leaders, Farage has a clear one, leads on strength, personality, understands Britain's problems.Badenoch? Nowhere. No particular brand at all. https://t.co/c1dQKnIiMv pic.twitter.com/Nb1m83Kle4
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No one gets much more than a quarter of voters under "shares our values"
Davey will be pleased to come top on being honest and in touch with ordinary folk
Not so easy to defenestrate a Tory leader any more though.
Two problems.
Is she capable of getting a personal brand going?
(Curiously, this looked like one of her strengths beforehand. Strong backstory (even if it had some holes), simple proposition (even if copying the American right's playbook looks less plausible now.))
Is she capable of realising how badly things are going for her?
Meanwhile, yes this is an anonymous piece in an online magazine, but it couldn't be less subtle if the author called themselves Jobert Renwick;
https://thecritic.co.uk/badenoch-must-go/
He's wrecked the reputation of the USA as a stable, reliable, trustworthy country.
And he's running an action learning experiment in what can happen when the Rule of Law is removed from an advanced country.
The other thing to note is that the geographic location of frequency band allocation (the report seems to be talking about that in a very vague deployable-in-45-minutes manner) is, increasingly obsolete.
Frequencies for satellite systems are set worldwide, for example.
Note that at the specific request of Biden, Starlink was turned on in Iran, which is a technical breach of ITU rules - no consent from the Iranian government.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1887142628988235803
The reason for low score, across the board, is a profound disconnect between politicians and the electorate.
The politicians do not want to do the things the electorate wants. They want to talk the talk, then walk another walk.
They are then appalled to find that the electorate does not regard them as trustworthy.
This smacks so strongly of an over-promoted middle manager because, at the end of the day, that’s what she is.
Kemi’s aggressive personal style means, I suspect, that she has never been corrected at work by colleagues. She probably believes that she doesn’t make gaffes; she probably believes she is some preternatural talent who simply does politics better because she is better. On both counts, she is wrong.
That's where the reality hits.
World class public services with low taxes (on them).
No immigration but well staffed cheap labour intensive services like Social Care, hospitality, and fast food delivery.
Tough on crime and anti-social behaviour, but no restrictions on them and theirs.
Etc etc.
Constructing castles on clouds isn't an easy task. Maybe, just maybe it's not about the quality of our politicians.
eg 'An honest person' is in fact:
Starmer Yes 31% No 46% Don't know 23% Net -15%
Badenoch Yes 21% No 37% Don't know 43% Net -16%
Farage Yes 24% No 50% Don't know 26% Net -26%
Davey Yes 37% No 22% Don't know 41% Net +15%
Badenoch's net 'honest person' is actually better than Farage's, and Davey's 37% is even more impressive given the numbers saying 'Don't know'
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2025-01/Ipsos January 2025_Political Pulse_Data Tables_PUBLIC_0.pdf
Net for 'Shares my values' are bad though:
Starmer -31%
Badenoch -32%
Farage -27%
Davey -6%
Someone mentioned Santorini and earthquakes. Sat through a tremor in a restaurant in Greece a few years ago. Strange feeling where you think something is happening but no one moves. Meanwhile further down the road, a pothole to beat all potholes.
One doesn’t have to go back very far to see that the last generation of politicians, such as Cameron and Blair, were much better at articulating a vision of where they want to take the country. The current lot, from all parties, appear to have little ambition other than to be in a position with generous expenses.
The US budget deficit today is around $1.6 trillion.
Elon Musk has expressed optimism about cutting the budget deficit by $1trillion.
So she at least recognises that there's no Ming Vase for her.
Yes the US deficit was totally unsustainable, I’m sure we’ve all worked at companies where the finances have been a mess, new management has come in and suddenly every purchase of a pencil needs justification. My suspicion is that every Western country is going to need to do a similar exercise in the coming years, or face the wrath of the markets.
In the UK there’s a gap of 6.3% of GDP between tax revenues and government spending. At some point the debt interest is going to be like having another NHS to fund.
https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2025/01/uk-economic-outlook-january-2025.pdf
Because it's not going to be by cutting "waste", without a wholesale redefinition of the term.
Newsom has zero change against someone like Shapiro for the nomination, if he doesn't sort this sort of shit out.
This is actually insane. The 119 Mile, on flat land, Merced to Bakersfield part of the California HSR, totally planned and in progress literally for decades, will not be finished for at least 11 years. Can we get the
@_brianpotter deep dive on what the hell they are doing?
https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/1887298279001759956
I see that Starmer's rep is damaged by being a lawyer.
She's been leader for long enough that this should've already happened.
F1: Audi (Sauber next year) are to open a base in the UK. Smart move given everyone except them and Ferrari have one base or another which makes it easier to get good talent.
I keep coming back to the thought that Elon Musk is making himself incredibly vulnerable. He’s such an obvious scapegoat if things go wrong. His only way through is to get this right first time. He has no track record of getting things right first time.
It's a valid point. If Elon and his fratboys mess it up (and they are very likely to do so) he is front and centre for the blame cannon.
And which of his companies is going to then want him as the face of their operations?
The floating-rate debts carry an interest rate of approximately 11%, with borrowing costs above even the riskiest loans on Wall Street, the Journal said.
(I'm not sure on the "bet on Musk" line. I'm more inclined to "banks dump Tesla debt", but this is not my topic.)
https://nypost.com/2025/02/05/business/banks-sell-5-5b-of-x-loans-as-investors-bet-on-elon-musk-report/
Every rightwinger can look across and think Shit, we chose the wrong guy
And I fear they did. Badenoch was a bet - which on balance I favoured - but she was always a bet. She has one year to improve but then the Tories need Jenrick. Who cares if he is a dodgy chancer with odious tendencies, he's a politician and he just has to beat the shit out of Starmer, who is grotesque, treacherous and inept
In fact if you put them in a room with Ed Davey for 24 hours, and he sat there shouting "I am Ed Davey, I am the leader of the Lib Dems!!!", I bet at the end of it, they'd say "Who was that weird boring shouty guy in the room with me?"
We have not recently tried having world class public services and paying for them; the current objection is to highish taxes and bad services.
There is suspicion among those who work and do their bit that there is a body of several million UK people who live on benefits but in a well ordered world would be doing the jobs the migrants are doing. I don't think this is entirely delusional.
The great majority of people live lives nowhere close to committing significant crime, and ditto nowhere close to being anti social nuisances to their community. If anything people mostly live over conformist lives, standing in a queue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO0L10E-Cic
It's not up to Musk to change (eg) social security, or healthcare entitlements. Or indeed the defence budget.
That's policy change, and will have to go through Congress. Imposing such things extra-legally is going to make a very big mess indeed.
Absent any of that, he's not going to save even a quarter of a trillion.
The “wrong kind of electorate” approach.
Perhaps we could amend the Human Rights Act
“Incompetent, over promoted middle mangers who don’t want to do what the electorate wants, have a basic right to votes.”
It's even possible that ministers might finally run out of alternatives to properly rinsing rich old people in big houses at this point, in which case the scale of screaming would be unprecedented. Though they'd probably scrap the state education system and disband the army before doing anything like that.
I don't know it counts this far out.
A bunch of politicians had a press conference outside USAID on Monday saying "You can't do this" while they were inside, doing it...
Didn't stop them.
If they're acting on the orders of the President, and Presidential Acts are always legal (Supreme Court) then maybe what they are doing is legal
Stuff like USAID is the easy bit, though. Touch voters' entitlements, and shit will get real very quickly.
A low tax economy is possible, but only if you abandon the weak and poor to rot (that's America.) A strong state with good services is possible, but only if everyone is thoroughly rinsed (that's Denmark.) We sit in-between, with high taxes on some but not all of the people, and insufficient money spread too thinly over too many areas, meaning that most of what Government does is expensive and crap at the same time. Britain is a textbook example of how not to manage an advanced economy.
People must pay for stuff properly or go without, but obviously they want everything for free, and throw a tantrum when told that isn't realistic. So on we go, circling the plughole.
The problem is, that in many areas, the only solution is 10 years and a billion for an indifferent result.
Starmer has his limits - culturally he presents as having neither the lights on nor being at home - though he is neither grotesque nor treacherous, but up against Jenrick he is the stuff of heroism.
It's exactly what he did at Twitter. And, it seems, he is slowly beginning to turn TwiX around
Revenue is slashed, but costs are slashed even more, and now it begins to grow again
https://x.com/Austen/status/1887363437518270757
In the UK no government or government agency could rebuke a long eared bat without finding itself injuncted. What on earth is going on across the pond?
Congress created USAID for example and it is definitely a moot point whether a non-elected official can simply close it on presidential whim.
Yes it’s a technically difficult project, there’s seismic activity and the run-in to the city at either end is complicated, but the middle bit highlighted here should be simple, except they suffer from many of the same issues that plague UK infrastructure projects, from land acquisition to environmentalism and NIMBYism.
I suggested a few weeks ago that all of the leaders of Labour, Tory and Reform will be gone before next election and the only question is which order.
Ed Davey is not going to be PM and I doubt Farage will be either
I expect Kemi will fight the next election, not least as Jenrick is simply in the wrong party
I have no idea whether Starmer will fight the next election
Ultimately nobody has a clue, and now we have Trump in office and each morning the question is
'what on earth has he done now'
Apparently he is not going to the G20 meeting in South Africa
Uncertainty reigns and it may not end in 2028 if Vance wins
She got into trouble for her interview where she denounced sandwich eaters, I would have got into even more trouble when I denounced people who put pineapple on pizza.
Poverty of ambition
If you are going to sell yourself like he did to Desmond you should at least get a decent price
Yet Badenoch doesn't have the negative image Farage has either so can grow into the role
ใหญ่เกินไป
(Richard Attenborough voice)
We are here… at the edge of the Hawaiian Calzone… waiting for the moment of truth. You can see the lava bubbling quietly and smell the sulphur in the air… the person who added pineapple to the mix bears great responsibility for the inevitable devastation that will follow—-